Asking the experts: Which polls are, or aren’t, legitimate?

posted at 7:47 pm on September 27, 2012 by Allahpundit

After yesterday’s post on poll trustworthiness, I started wondering whether there’s any poll or model that’s been consistently accurate over time and therefore worth watching down the stretch as a weathervane of where the race really stands. I e-mailed two experts whom I trust and put that question to them. Is there any steady signal they trust amid the cacophony of statistical noise? Anyone we can look to as a beacon in the darkness when the NYT drops its next D+10 sample of Utah or whatever on us?

Short answer: No, there’s no one whom they count on to get it more or less right every time. Polling averages did well in 2008 and 2004 but not so well in 2000 and 1996. The first person I spoke to told me flatly that it’s not worth paying much attention to the numbers now because the assumptions being made about the composition of the electorate on November 6 differ too widely among individual pollsters to distill a truly useful average. That uncertainty is compounded by the fact that, with six weeks left until America votes, there’s still an ocean full of potential “black swans” — wonderful/terrible jobs reports, war with Iran, a new eurozone spasm, etc — that could send the trendlines fluttering. (Team Romney told Rich Lowry they think their dip in Gallup’s tracker lately is due to one such black-swan moment whose effects are already fading.) Once we get to within a week or two of election day and pollsters’ assumptions finally start to coalesce, the polling averages will become more reliable as an indicator of where the race really stands. As my own addendum to that, I think we’re close enough to the first debate that there’s no point picking through polls until late next week at the earliest. Why worry about this week’s data when there’s a hugely important event that’s bound to affect the race right around the corner?

My other source had less to say about the reliability of polling averages generally than their reliability with respect to specific candidates. He told me that if you look at historical averages, you find that they underestimated Gore in 2000, Dole in 1996, and Bush 41 in 1992 — all of them dull, somewhat stiff candidates whom their respective bases weren’t thrilled about. Why would polls miss the mark on people like that? His theory is that pollsters pay lots of attention to voter enthusiasm but less attention to whether voters say they’re “certain” to vote, and in the case of candidates who aren’t beloved by their base, those two variables don’t match up especially well. There were plenty of Republicans who weren’t enthusiastic about Bush and Dole but who were nonetheless certain to vote for them in hopes of defeating the Democrat. Ditto for Gore vis-a-vis the GOP. (Kerry and McCain were also dim lights to their bases and the polls gauged their support pretty well, but in McCain’s case he had a huge shot of enthusiasm late from adding Palin to the ticket.) He thinks the same thing could be happening this year — essentially, pollsters are keying off of the Dems’ slight edge in “enthusiasm” and missing the fact that plenty of unenthusiastic Republicans will be at the polls anyway to vote for a guy who’s taken to citing RomneyCare lately as proof of his empathy. If that’s the case, then they’re lowballing Romney’s support. And in a tight race, that’s potentially a decisive error.

See? I am capable of writing a poll post that’s not hopelessly eeyorish. Although I’d be lying if I said this wasn’t how I felt when I saw those Gallup numbers yesterday. Oof.


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Let’s face it, too many people that post here WANT Romney to lose. Period. They’re either still bitter over the primaries, or think somehow it’s better for conservatives if Obama wins another term and is able to complete his destruction of the economy.

changer1701 on September 27, 2012 at 8:46 PM

No, let’s face it, too many people post here who are just Red Team cheerleaders and who would be cheering on Henry Waxman if he were the Red Team guy. They have to personalize this thing as “Obama is Satan and he must be stopped!!!”

There are also too many who take a simple statement as “Romney is a moderate. Moderate Republicans do not do well nationally” as hating Romney or wanting Romney to lose. What those of us who say that are doing is merely telling you what’s likely to happen. Maybe you should look into the prophet Jeremiah sometime.

Squishdom does not win nationally. If you don’t like that, then don’t nominate squishes for president and then demand that conservatives fall in line.

ddrintn on September 27, 2012 at 9:24 PM

I can go as longer without typing as you and your friends can go on without masturbating to your deity Romney.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:23 PM

Deal genius….we’ll all stop what you do hourly in moms basement over your obama flag… if you stop posting.

oh….and stay classy!

Tim_CA on September 27, 2012 at 9:25 PM

Just call it Romney Care he did get it into law first. It was his idea.

Steveangell on September 27, 2012 at 9:17 PM

Got caught in a lie but continue it. Go figure.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 9:21 PM

Put up or shut up.

You tell me the difference.

There is only one.

State level
Federal level.

Steveangell on September 27, 2012 at 9:25 PM

You are full of $H!TT! And I am not a Mittbot!

texgal on September 27, 2012 at 9:21 PM

Well, I keep listening. What is the change of direction? Away from Obama? it is still towards a socialized America.

Mitt Romney: I will make sure Social Security is saved

So, what will change over time as Americans are always expecting to get their OWED government benefits?

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:25 PM

Deal genius….we’ll all stop what you do hourly in moms basement over your obama flag… if you stop posting.

oh….and stay classy!

Tim_CA on September 27, 2012 at 9:25 PM

You guys made it less than classy. It is your choice that makes the determination of the quality of the debate.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:26 PM

You are full of $H!TT! And I am not a Mittbot!

texgal on September 27, 2012 at 9:21 PM

Flapjack called me a mittbot.
Stung for second, but when it passed I realized a insult from a troll is a good thing. Karma.

OTTO on September 27, 2012 at 9:27 PM

Wrong dummy, csdeven and bluegills ain’t even here.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 9:24 PM

As a reply that makes no sense.

But it probably makes as much sense as the idea that preserving for generations socialism in America is a change in direction.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:29 PM

Put up or shut up.

Steveangell on September 27, 2012 at 9:25 PM

Demanding of others what you cannot do to cover your previous lies. How 0bama of you.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 9:29 PM

You guys made it less than classy. It is your choice that makes the determination of the quality of the debate.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:26 PM

and….

I can go as longer without typing as you and your friends can go on without masturbating to your deity Romney.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:23 PM

Typical libtard….3 minute memory.

Tim_CA on September 27, 2012 at 9:29 PM

Typical libtard….3 minute memory.

Tim_CA on September 27, 2012 at 9:29 PM

The pro mitt people attacked first.

Long before that statement.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:29 PM

I can go as longer without typing as you and your friends can go on without masturbating to your deity Romney.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:23 PM

Now who’s behaving like an adolescent?

OTTO on September 27, 2012 at 9:30 PM

As a reply that makes no sense.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:29 PM

Which goes to show your ignorance…again.

Your only goal here is to bash Romney.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 9:30 PM

You want context…here is YOUR context!

I will actively vote Obama and get my family to join me if the nominee is Romney.

You are no better than than the “I got me an Obama phone” sheeple! Shame on you! Get lost!

texgal on September 27, 2012 at 9:31 PM

And, it’s beyond stupid to declare more than a month out that all is lost, that it’s game over, etc, as you continue to do, relying on polling that is replete with bad sampling. All, again, in an effort to discourage and demoralize.

changer1701 on September 27, 2012 at 9:15 PM

Are you kidding? Anybody with half a brain that wasn’t wired directly into what Rich Lowry and Hugh Hewitt and the GOPe were telling them could see this was coming 3 friggin’ YEARS ago. But no, even after we “Mitt haters” told you that there would be no scorched earth Romney Death Star crap aimed at Obama, we still get this “the Death Star is primed and ready to go!” crap.

ddrintn on September 27, 2012 at 9:31 PM

ddrintn on September 27, 2012 at 9:24 PM

Yeah, most of us want to get rid of Obama and think Romney would be better. Go figure. You’re really proving those con bona fides by essentially deciding Obama is preferable. How principled you are. I’m sure that’ll come in handy after Obama is inaugurated a second time.

changer1701 on September 27, 2012 at 9:32 PM

The pro mitt people attacked first.

Long before that statement.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:29 PM

Heh, you have been personally attacking Mitt and his supporters for as long as he has been running.

Yet, you know nothing about his two biggest supporters.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 9:32 PM

I can go as longer without typing as you and your friends can go on without masturbating to your deity Romney.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:23 PM

Typical libtard….3 minute memory.

Tim_CA on September 27, 2012 at 9:29 PM

***snort***

JPeterman on September 27, 2012 at 9:33 PM

Get lost!

texgal on September 27, 2012 at 9:31 PM

That only gets her juices flowing.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 9:33 PM

“And, it’s beyond stupid to declare more than a month out that all is lost, that it’s game over, etc, as you continue to do, relying on polling that is replete with bad sampling.”

If you want to believe that all the poll except Ras are invalid due to bad sampling, even though Fox News just had the Dem advantage only +3, go right ahead and be crushed on election night.

gumbyandpokey on September 27, 2012 at 9:34 PM

You are no better than than the “I got me an Obama phone” sheeple! Shame on you! Get lost!

texgal on September 27, 2012 at 9:31 PM

Shame? Shamed by someone who like those guys. LOL.

There AINT no such thing as shame in this nation gal… No one has to fear being shamed. There is no risk for it. Why? Because if people really truly shun you… You always got uncle sam to care for you. Something you yourself support if your voting Romney.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:34 PM

Put up or shut up.

Steveangell on September 27, 2012 at 9:25 PM

Demanding of others what you cannot do to cover your previous lies. How 0bama of you.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 9:29 PM

This is like taking candy from a baby.

Once again you make charges and have no way to make them stick so you just play this stupid game and think you are wining.

You just lost admit it.

Never going to happen of course. More likely name calling now.

Steveangell on September 27, 2012 at 9:35 PM

Mitt is doing magnificently.

bluegill on September 27, 2012 at 7:56 PM

LOL…

ddrintn on September 27, 2012 at 9:36 PM

ddrintn on September 27, 2012 at 9:24 PM

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:23 PM

gumbyandpokey on September 27, 2012 at 9:34 PM

Steveangell on September 27, 2012 at 9:17 PM

Jerks forming their circle and not an original thought among the bunch. What a life you losers lead. Sad. Really sad.

CW on September 27, 2012 at 9:36 PM

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:34 PM

Sounds like you speak from experience. People have the ability to shun you in the real world, So you spew your ignorant hatred here.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 9:36 PM

Heh, you have been personally attacking Mitt and his supporters for as long as he has been running.

Yet, you know nothing about his two biggest supporters.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 9:32 PM

That is kind of Ironic…

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:36 PM

The pro mitt people attacked first.

Long before that statement.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:29 PM

Isn’t that the kind of stuff they say in grammar school?

“He hit me first, I’m telling on you” says Astroturd the Obot.

JPeterman on September 27, 2012 at 9:36 PM

Yeah, most of us want to get rid of Obama and think Romney would be better. Go figure. You’re really proving those con bona fides by essentially deciding Obama is preferable. How principled you are. I’m sure that’ll come in handy after Obama is inaugurated a second time.

changer1701 on September 27, 2012 at 9:32 PM

Sorry that I can’t get too worked up over a choice between statism and statism lite.

ddrintn on September 27, 2012 at 9:37 PM

Astroturd the Obot.

JPeterman on September 27, 2012 at 9:36 PM

Nope, here we are all adults. We debate on equal footing. If you want to talk down in the gutter, I am happy to oblige you.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:38 PM

This is like taking candy from a baby.

Steveangell on September 27, 2012 at 9:35 PM

Looks like you ain’t very good at that either then.

You just lost admit it.

Steveangell on September 27, 2012 at 9:35 PM

Lost what?

Did you lose the brain cells to comprehend the words you wrote just one page back?

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 9:39 PM

Isn’t it amazing how so many people who get upset when some of us point out Romney’s shortcomings are the very same people who will tear to shreds a senate candidate in Missouri over something he said relating to rape and abortion. And those very same people will throw that senate candidate under the bus and even give up on taking control of the senate while demanding those who question Romney’s strategy to win or anything else about Romney to shut up and fall in line even though most intend to vote for him anyway.

bgibbs1000 on September 27, 2012 at 9:39 PM

Jerks forming their circle and not an original thought among the bunch. What a life you losers lead. Sad. Really sad.

CW on September 27, 2012 at 9:36 PM

“Original thought” as in “the polls are skewed!!!! Except Ras, when he has Romney in the lead!!!! Romney’s gonna win this thing, baby!!!!” Talk about circle jerk.

ddrintn on September 27, 2012 at 9:39 PM

Jerks forming their circle and not an original thought among the bunch. What a life you losers lead. Sad. Really sad.

CW on September 27, 2012 at 9:36 PM

Really. I thought you were on their side… All along, Thanks for backing me up against that circled wagon group of popular kids.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:41 PM

Nope, here we are all adults. We debate on equal footing. If you want to talk down in the gutter, I am happy to oblige you.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:38 PM

Who was in the gutter?

I can go as longer without typing as you and your friends can go on without masturbating to your deity Romney.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:23 PM

That would be you.

JPeterman on September 27, 2012 at 9:41 PM

Nope, here we are all adults. We debate on equal footing. If you want to talk down in the gutter, I am happy to oblige you.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:38 PM

Who was in the gutter?

I can go as longer without typing as you and your friends can go on without masturbating to your deity Romney.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:23 PM

That would be you.

JPeterman on September 27, 2012 at 9:41 PM

Reading comprehension was even taught in my school.
What a failure you are.

Such a failure, you have to reach back 9 months to make your point. Since it is the only point you are capable of making.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:43 PM

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:34 PM

Sounds like you speak from experience. People have the ability to shun you in the real world, So you spew your ignorant hatred here.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 9:36 PM

Ah now you are just talking to your self.

Steveangell on September 27, 2012 at 9:46 PM

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0

This is REALLY good news for Mitt…

Republicans have already exceeded there absentee ballot request from 2008 and the Dems are down 100K…

MGardner on September 27, 2012 at 9:48 PM

Astroturd accuses me of stalking in 5..4….3…

JPeterman on September 27, 2012 at 8:30 PM

Yup, the very first of the personal attacks was by your side. Here is your attack. Up until that point I had made no personal attacks on anyone.

Funny that. Because you have nothing to argue, you just try and shut down the debate by using personal attacks.

You have the freedom to make arguments, yet you chose to use personal attacks. Funny how that it is… Been like that for all of Romney’s sycophants since they first arrived.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:48 PM

That only gets her juices flowing.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 9:33 PM

But I just can’t abide these fools now! My God, this may be the most important election in our nation’s history, and these dipslh!ts are willing to vote for Obama because Romney is not conservative enough??? Yes, Republicans have stabbed conservatives in the back, and there is not a place at the table for Libertarians right now; but, by God I am going to fight for it. Obama is America’s worst NIGHTMARE! This is our crossroads, so when idiots like asstowipe are willing to be accomplices to the ruin of our country, then they are my enemy, too!

texgal on September 27, 2012 at 9:48 PM

Ah now you are just talking to your self.

Steveangell on September 27, 2012 at 9:46 PM

And it is a better conversation than the one’s y’all nutballs are having with the voices in your heads.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 9:49 PM

Well, I don’t like the sound of this.

This is an interesting interview where CBS reporter Jan Crawford asks Romney about comments his supports have made to him on the rope line, imploring him to get ruthless and go on the attack. But Romney’s response is “this is a campaign not about character assassination…”

bluefox on September 27, 2012 at 8:29 PM

Well then what you’re going to have to do now is put a Newt mask on Obama and stuff a pillow under his coat.

ddrintn on September 27, 2012 at 9:50 PM

texgal on September 27, 2012 at 9:48 PM

Yep, and they take pleasure in pretending to be rightys. It is part of the liberal’s playbook to try and depress the other side.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 9:50 PM

Sounds like you speak from experience. People have the ability to shun you in the real world, So you spew your ignorant hatred here.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 9:36 PM

not the high school kind of shunning like you are so totally needing to avoid because you are so insecure you have to be seen as cool. The kind that says, sorry buddy, no job here for you. Nope, can’t rent you that room, keep moving.

The welfare state makes that kind of shunning pretty pointless, cause then they just jump on the government dime and extract the money from you anyways. Laughing at you as you go to work every day to earn them some more Nike’s and iPhones.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:51 PM

This is our crossroads, so when idiots like asstowipe are willing to be accomplices to the ruin of our country, then they are my enemy, too!

texgal on September 27, 2012 at 9:48 PM

You are in trouble now for making personal attacks LOL!

JPeterman on September 27, 2012 at 9:51 PM

But I just can’t abide these fools now! My God, this may be the most important election in our nation’s history, and these dipslh!ts are willing to vote for Obama because Romney is not conservative enough??? Yes, Republicans have stabbed conservatives in the back, and there is not a place at the table for Libertarians right now; but, by God I am going to fight for it. Obama is America’s worst NIGHTMARE! This is our crossroads, so when idiots like asstowipe are willing to be accomplices to the ruin of our country, then they are my enemy, too!

texgal on September 27, 2012 at 9:48 PM

Did you look at the date on that Tex? I rescinded that statement a LONG time ago. The worst I am doing is staying home.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:52 PM

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:51 PM

That must have hit close to the mark to get you to try the high school thing again.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 9:53 PM

Did you look at the date on that Tex? I rescinded that statement a LONG time ago. The worst I am doing is staying home.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:52 PM

Show us where you rescinded it, Astrowipe.

JPeterman on September 27, 2012 at 9:53 PM

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:29 PM

This person has totally hijacked this thread, please stop responding to it, please…

ccrosby on September 27, 2012 at 9:54 PM

Yep, and they take pleasure in pretending to be rightys. It is part of the liberal’s playbook to try and depress the other side.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 9:50 PM

It’s also part of the liberals’ playbook to substitute ad hominem for reasoned argument. You’ve never had any of the latter, nothing but the former.

ddrintn on September 27, 2012 at 9:55 PM

That must have hit close to the mark to get you to try the high school thing again.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 9:53 PM

It might have. What is the point? You are going to use it as an additional sore point on me to aggravate old wounds? Feel free. just demonstrates that age is not maturity.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:55 PM

You are in trouble now for making personal attacks LOL!

JPeterman on September 27, 2012 at 9:51 PM

If assteroid calls her on it she can remove the newbie vest.

I rescinded that statement a LONG time ago. The worst I am doing is staying home.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:52 PM

Only because you were rightfully skewered over that stupid statement that you attempted defend for the longest time.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 9:56 PM

This person has totally hijacked this thread, please stop responding to it, please…

ccrosby on September 27, 2012 at 9:54 PM

That or just simply not attack me personally. I’ll have a nice chat with you if your polite and have differing opinions and want to show me facts.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:56 PM

It’s also part of the liberals’ playbook to substitute ad hominem for reasoned argument. You’ve never had any of the latter, nothing but the former.

ddrintn on September 27, 2012 at 9:55 PM

You haven’t earned anything better than the derision you get.

It might have. What is the point?

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:55 PM

Just wondering what makes you idiot ABR nutballs tick. There may be a cure for what affects y’all.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 9:59 PM

Did you look at the date on that Tex? I rescinded that statement a LONG time ago. The worst I am doing is staying home.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:52 PM

Yeah…You’re a real Hero sparky…

To both your Country AND your family.

You’re THE libtardian loser….personified.

Tim_CA on September 27, 2012 at 9:59 PM

Then DAMN you! You are a traitor!

texgal on September 27, 2012 at 9:13 PM

Note the date. I said something similar during the primaries to p!ss off bluegill. I think that’s what he meant about context.

While I don’t disagree with asteronii’s thoughts about Romney, I do disagree with what he’s been thinking is the best way to handle it. I would not want to wait and give Obama the chance to do whatever he plans to do in a second term, hoping that it will make anyone in this country wise up. That could easily backfire. People are hanging on by a thread now. If they have to live through another four years of this, there may be no going back. A lot of that 47% would prefer to be working. I would not want to look back and have to tell my daughter I didn’t do everything I could to stop this.

I believe Romney will be pretty easy to pressure from the right if he wins this. It’s up to us to do that, not rely on Romney to do the right thing. With Obama, we don’t stand a chance. With Romney, we do. That’s really all there is to it.

Night Owl on September 27, 2012 at 10:00 PM

Just wondering what makes you idiot ABR nutballs tick. There may be a cure for what affects y’all.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 9:59 PM

I do not need a cure. Sounds like what progressives and fascist say when people do not agree with them. So, I am not convinced you are a conservative. You attack like a liberal. Like you are on Obama’s and the rest of the left’s side of the field.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 10:01 PM

Astonerii I agree with what you are saying most of the time. And yes Romney has his faults, lots of them. God knows I’ve pointed them out. So say all you want about Romney and his faults and I’ll usually back you up, but at the end of the day he’s all we have to stop the marxist and we need your vote. If you stay home you are facilitating whatever a re-elected Obama might do to the country.

bgibbs1000 on September 27, 2012 at 10:01 PM

That or just simply not attack me personally. I’ll have a nice chat with you if your polite and have differing opinions and want to show me facts.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:56 PM

Look at the Obot grovel! On his terms to boot.

JPeterman on September 27, 2012 at 10:02 PM

Night Owl on September 27, 2012 at 10:00 PM

Stop making my arguments for me. Having jerks like them constantly attack me sure makes it easier to stay home on November 7th!

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 10:03 PM

So, I am not convinced you are a conservative.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 10:01 PM

And that matters to me how?

Why would I want to impress an 0bama lovin’ batcrap crazy ABR nutball?

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 10:04 PM

Look at the Obot grovel! On his terms to boot.

JPeterman on September 27, 2012 at 10:02 PM

I do not grovel. So, other than personal attacks, what do you do with your time?

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 10:04 PM

Why would I want to impress an 0bama lovin’ batcrap crazy ABR nutball?

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 10:04 PM

Look at those protestations… I think he doth protesteth too much.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 10:05 PM

Having jerks like them constantly attack me sure makes it easier to stay home on November 7th!

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 10:03 PM

Whatever it takes to keep you from voting for 0bama. Sounds like your family laughed you off when you tried to get them to vote for 0bama.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 10:05 PM

… I think he doth protesteth too much.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 10:05 PM

Um, okay…whatever.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 10:06 PM

A lot of undecided vote that will break toward Romney…

MGardner on September 27, 2012 at 8:24 PM

Not if he doesn’t convince them. They may just decide to stay home.

ddrintn on September 27, 2012 at 10:08 PM

Having jerks like them constantly attack me sure makes it easier to stay home on November 7th!

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 10:03 PM

Whatever it takes to keep you from voting for 0bama.
cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 10:05 PM

Amen.

Tim_CA on September 27, 2012 at 10:08 PM

Whatever it takes to keep you from voting for 0bama. Sounds like your family laughed you off when you tried to get them to vote for 0bama.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 10:05 PM

someone is so totally reaching, looking and prodding for buttons. It is so kute to see you squirm around trying to justify your attacks and yet never come up with anything that promotes your professed position.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 10:08 PM

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2012/09/keep-calm-and-carry-on.php

The War Planner on September 27, 2012 at 7:59 PM

Thanks for that link:)

It was certainly a better use of my time than reading the silliness going on here.

Jvette on September 27, 2012 at 10:08 PM

Whatever it takes to keep you from voting for 0bama. Sounds like your family laughed you off when you tried to get them to vote for 0bama.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 10:05 PM

Eh, eh, my name is cozmo… I do not comprehend much well.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 10:10 PM

It’s also part of the liberals’ playbook to substitute ad hominem for reasoned argument. You’ve never had any of the latter, nothing but the former.

ddrintn on September 27, 2012 at 9:55 PM

You haven’t earned anything better than the derision you get.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 9:59 PM

Especially when derision’s all you got in that moldy old quiver of yours, gramps.

ddrintn on September 27, 2012 at 10:11 PM

I do not grovel. So, other than personal attacks, what do you do with your time?

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 10:04 PM

I am self employed and it’s none of your business what I do with my time.

JPeterman on September 27, 2012 at 10:11 PM

Note the date. I said something similar during the primaries to p!ss off bluegill. I think that’s what he meant about context.

While I don’t disagree with asteronii’s thoughts about Romney, I do disagree with what he’s been thinking is the best way to handle it. I would not want to wait and give Obama the chance to do whatever he plans to do in a second term, hoping that it will make anyone in this country wise up. That could easily backfire. People are hanging on by a thread now. If they have to live through another four years of this, there may be no going back. A lot of that 47% would prefer to be working. I would not want to look back and have to tell my daughter I didn’t do everything I could to stop this.

I believe Romney will be pretty easy to pressure from the right if he wins this. It’s up to us to do that, not rely on Romney to do the right thing. With Obama, we don’t stand a chance. With Romney, we do. That’s really all there is to it.

Night Owl on September 27, 2012 at 10:00 PM

I disagree. Every RINO squish has always moved left and the right has never been able to pressure them to move right. The left on the other hand can sneeze and they will move left.

I have no illusions about Romney but he’s all we’ve got.

bgibbs1000 on September 27, 2012 at 10:12 PM

I am self employed and it’s none of your business what I do with my time.

JPeterman on September 27, 2012 at 10:11 PM

Oh, so sorry. I meant online time. I was not prying, like you guys do. I was more interested in whether you actually had anything to say that had value.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 10:12 PM

I am self employed and it’s none of your business what I do with my time.

JPeterman on September 27, 2012 at 10:11 PM

Uh-oh. I think we found one who likes to parade in front of the mirror in leopard-print leotards and stilettos in his spare time.

ddrintn on September 27, 2012 at 10:14 PM

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 10:08 PM

Delusional now?

Especially when derision’s all you got in that moldy old quiver of yours, gramps.

ddrintn on September 27, 2012 at 10:11 PM

Yeah, but at least I have something in my quiver. Y’all have nothing but made up crap.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 10:15 PM

I believe Romney will be pretty easy to pressure from the right if he wins this. It’s up to us to do that, not rely on Romney to do the right thing. With Obama, we don’t stand a chance. With Romney, we do. That’s really all there is to it.

Night Owl on September 27, 2012 at 10:00 PM

THIS!!! Thank you! Right now I can’t tell a troll from an idiot. At this point there is a line in the sand for me! A RED line for this election. I just can’t abide the fools right now and you are either “with us or against us!” The time for these foolish word games and baiting for attention are over. If you are going to stay home, piss and moan about Romney, or whine about Rhinos, then FO! Pick your side and fight for it!

texgal on September 27, 2012 at 10:18 PM

I have no illusions about Romney but he’s all we’ve got.

bgibbs1000 on September 27, 2012 at 10:12

Amen.

You can go with the marxist disaster who would be completely unfettered by worries of re-election….or you can go with the successful businessman/Governor who’s too moderate (for my taste), but chose a solid VP and has been pulling right since the primaries.

Yeah.

Tough choice.

Tim_CA on September 27, 2012 at 10:18 PM

Yeah, but at least I have something in my quiver. Y’all have nothing but made up crap.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 10:15 PM

Like what? Like some invisible Rombot contingent missing from all those polls? I’m not the one counting on some made-up R +5 advantage on election day, gramps. That’s for you circle-jerkers.

ddrintn on September 27, 2012 at 10:18 PM

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 10:15 PM

Nope, your questions are the prodding type where you are looking for weak spots to use later. Your extremely poor at your efforts, it is very visible.
Very manipulative mind. Something like Obama has. It is part of a narcissists tool bag.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 10:18 PM

Amen.

You can go with the marxist disaster who would be completely unfettered by worries of re-election….or you can go with the successful businessman/Governor who’s too moderate (for my taste), but chose a solid VP and has been pulling right since the primaries.

Yeah.

Tough choice.

Tim_CA on September 27, 2012 at 10:18 PM

In other words, we can go off the cliff at 40 mph instead of 120 mph and hope that we end up in 7 pieces instead of 23!!!

ddrintn on September 27, 2012 at 10:21 PM

In other words, we can go off the cliff at 40 mph instead of 120 mph and hope that we end up in 7 pieces instead of 23!!!

ddrintn on September 27, 2012 at 10:21 PM

Stay home.

You’re too stupid to vote.

(or drive, or operate heavy machinery)

Tim_CA on September 27, 2012 at 10:24 PM

In other words, we can go off the cliff at 40 mph instead of 120 mph and hope that we end up in 7 pieces instead of 23!!!

ddrintn on September 27, 2012 at 10:21 PM

OK, I’ll play! So what do you suggest we do??? Seriously, I really want to know what is your solution? Put up, or shut up!

texgal on September 27, 2012 at 10:25 PM

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 10:18 PM

Yes dear, you stick with that. While you continue with your stupidity.

That’s for you circle-jerkers.

ddrintn on September 27, 2012 at 10:18 PM

But we are having fun with ours. You ABR nutballs have yours while cheering for the destruction of our country. I don’t see any fun in that.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 10:25 PM

Stay home.

You’re too stupid to vote.

(or drive, or operate heavy machinery)

Tim_CA on September 27, 2012 at 10:24 PM

Not exactly the way I would go about tying to convince someone.

bgibbs1000 on September 27, 2012 at 10:26 PM

Amen.

You can go with the marxist disaster who would be completely unfettered by worries of re-election….or you can go with the successful businessman/Governor who’s too moderate (for my taste), but chose a solid VP and has been pulling right since the primaries.

Yeah.

Tough choice.

Tim_CA on September 27, 2012 at 10:18 PM

The frog in the pot comes to mind. Obama is the impatient cook. Romney is the patient one. Obama has a chance of causing the frog enough discomfort to jump out of the pot. Romney will keep the slow rise in temperature going so the frog gets cooked.

Now, I cannot say for sure if that is what will happen. I am still watching Romney and might vote for him. I have no idea what he might promote at the debates for full total effect. he might say exactly what i want him to say. Cut, Cap and Balance, you can take that to the bank when I am President. He might have some other reversal of the direction of the country policy he touts tomorrow in an ad. I have no idea what it might be or if it even will happen. 5 weeks 5 days.

After today you guys are in luck though. My online time will be significantly curtailed. Not obliterated, but cut back.

I knew I was in a bad mood earlier…

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 10:27 PM

Romney is just a Godawful candidate (one of the worst ever), but the fact of the matter is that it might be almost impossible for any Republican to win the White House anymore with the demographics being what they are and having no chance in CA, NY and IL to start.

No Republican has a chance on Democratic turf in a Presidential election. No chance at MI, no chance at PA, no chance at MN or WI, either. IA a longshot…

gumbyandpokey on September 27, 2012 at 8:52 PM

Bull.

Romney is losing because his vision is far too close to Obama’s.

Ryan got cheers, Ryan is loved by the base. Put Ryan on top he would win in a landslide.

But any of the others would also be way ahead now.

Romney is the problem not the GOP. Other than that the GOP nominated Romney.

Steveangell on September 27, 2012 at 9:02 PM

Ah, look, Godzilla vs. Mothra.

Gelsomina on September 27, 2012 at 10:27 PM

Stop making my arguments for me. Having jerks like them constantly attack me sure makes it easier to stay home on November 7th!

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 10:03 PM

You aren’t staying home. You said either way, you were voting for the down ticket. I wasn’t really making your argument, it was more like trying to highlight the possible error of your thinking without being hateful about it. I also at one point said I wouldn’t vote for Romney no matter what, but I changed my mind. There is still time for you to change your mind, as you said. I hope you see your way clear to doing that, because I believe your solution is too risky. And go ahead and stay home on the 7th, but on the 6th we need your vote!

Night Owl on September 27, 2012 at 10:31 PM

Not exactly the way I would go about tying to convince someone.

bgibbs1000 on September 27, 2012 at 10:26 PM

You’re gonna have to forgive me….but I’ve run out of patience with these idiots….too much at stake – I’ve got a nine-year-old daughter.

Anyone “claiming” to be conservative that’s willing to sit out this election is either a moron or a troll…!

Tim_CA on September 27, 2012 at 10:31 PM

When the topic of conversation switches from “which swing states will Romney win” to “the polls are innaccurate”, the show is over. I was only 19 in 2006 when i used to read RedState (before Moe Lane’s amateur-hour writing style ruined the whole site), but I knew then that the democrat takeover was imminent given the constant, frantic “polls are wrong/biased” posts.

I’ve not given up yet, but lets not delude ourselves about the state of the race. Romney wasn’t lying about “the 47 percent”.

bocat on September 27, 2012 at 10:32 PM

The frog in the pot comes to mind. Obama is the impatient cook. Romney is the patient one. Obama has a chance of causing the frog enough discomfort to jump out of the pot. Romney will keep the slow rise in temperature going so the frog gets cooked.

Now, I cannot say for sure if that is what will happen. I am still watching Romney and might vote for him. I have no idea what he might promote at the debates for full total effect. he might say exactly what i want him to say. Cut, Cap and Balance, you can take that to the bank when I am President. He might have some other reversal of the direction of the country policy he touts tomorrow in an ad. I have no idea what it might be or if it even will happen. 5 weeks 5 days.

After today you guys are in luck though. My online time will be significantly curtailed. Not obliterated, but cut back.

I knew I was in a bad mood earlier…

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 10:27 PM

Excellent analysis and I agree. In fact I’m surprised the frog hasn’t jumped out yet. I firmly believe that the frog will gave to jump out at some point to save the country anyway, ie civil war. But right now I’m still willing to give Romney a chance, it’s the only one we really have until and if the frog jumps.

bgibbs1000 on September 27, 2012 at 10:34 PM

Night Owl on September 27, 2012 at 10:31 PM

Eh, these people on here make feel like making them suffer the consequences. Then you have to soften me up. I really think Americans should suffer for their immoral behavior of late. I really was hyped up when the 47% thing came out, and then they beat me down even though I was up on Romney. Hell, that was when I signed up for the door knocking thing I did yesterday.

I am starting to think they do not support who they say they do…

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 10:37 PM

I disagree. Every RINO squish has always moved left and the right has never been able to pressure them to move right. The left on the other hand can sneeze and they will move left.

I have no illusions about Romney but he’s all we’ve got.

bgibbs1000 on September 27, 2012 at 10:12 PM

I think you are correct, but I think that was before the TEA Party, and before we realized that just electing a Republican isn’t going to do any good. When George Bush won, I thought, oh good, I can get back to my life and quit watching things like a hawk. Well, apparently, that was wrong. It just can’t end with November 6th. We are going to have to pressure our Reps and Senators to produce legislation we want and get rid of stuff we don’t want. Romney can only sign what they send him, and it’s up to us to keep the pressure up.

Night Owl on September 27, 2012 at 10:38 PM

Excellent analysis and I agree. In fact I’m surprised the frog hasn’t jumped out yet. I firmly believe that the frog will gave to jump out at some point to save the country anyway, ie civil war. But right now I’m still willing to give Romney a chance, it’s the only one we really have until and if the frog jumps.

bgibbs1000 on September 27, 2012 at 10:34 PM

oh please….that frog done jumped in the formation of the Tea-Party and the 2010 midterm “shellacking”.

It’s about to jump again come november.

Tim_CA on September 27, 2012 at 10:39 PM

that was when I signed up for the door knocking thing I did yesterday.
I am starting to think they do not support who they say they do…

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 10:37 PM

Did the nice organizer from SEIU give you an obama phone?

Tim_CA on September 27, 2012 at 10:41 PM

You’re gonna have to forgive me….but I’ve run out of patience with these idiots….too much at stake – I’ve got a nine-year-old daughter.

Anyone “claiming” to be conservative that’s willing to sit out this election is either a moron or a troll…!

Tim_CA on September 27, 2012 at 10:31 PM

Mine is 18 months old.
So tell me. When the debts come due that Romney and Ryan plan to dump on the next generation. Perpetual deficit spending for two full generations. Are the kids really better off in the future under that debt than a crisis nearer term followed by a real recovery?

Romney talked about reigniting the housing prices. Like he knows what the price should be. Looking at the charts, they pretty much look right in line with historical norms, But with Incomes down from 3 years ago, they should actually be lower.

I know what it is like to be fearful for your daughter. Yours is older than mine. I am looking out 20 years. You are looking out 8.

I am really trying figure it out, which one gives her a better America. Romney can easily destroy the party. He has no hope of lifting it up.

We got the DHS with 1.4 billion rounds of ammo, 5 rounds for every man woman and child in the nation. Boat loads of Ammo for many other departments that do not have any rational reason for buying them. Has Romney said anything about that? What about our legislators in the House of Representatives? If not, why not? Are they part and parcel?

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 10:44 PM

Did the nice organizer from SEIU give you an obama phone?

Tim_CA on September 27, 2012 at 10:41 PM

Is that what you consider Tagg Romney?

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 10:45 PM

bluefox on September 27, 2012 at 8:29 PM

Well then what you’re going to have to do now is put a Newt mask on Obama and stuff a pillow under his coat.

ddrintn on September 27, 2012 at 9:50 PM

I didn’t mention Newt nor was he in that CBS/Romney interview, so I don’t know what you are talking about.

Just to enlighten you, I’ve voted Republican my entire life. Never have I voted for a Dem for any office, Local/State/Federal.

bluefox on September 27, 2012 at 10:47 PM

oh please….that frog done jumped in the formation of the Tea-Party and the 2010 midterm “shellacking”.

It’s about to jump again come november.

Tim_CA on September 27, 2012 at 10:39 PM

Exactly what did 2010 change other than which party controls the House of Reps? They are still funding marxist care, cutting defense and funding every social program that ever was full throttle and then some. It meant nothing. The only time anything ever got rolled back other than defense a tiny bit was during Reagan’s administration and when Newt and the guys took over in 1994 and then the RINOs destroyed Newt. Again I’m voting Romney without much expectation that anything will change, it just won’t get as bad as it would otherwise.

bgibbs1000 on September 27, 2012 at 10:49 PM

THIS!!! Thank you! Right now I can’t tell a troll from an idiot. At this point there is a line in the sand for me! A RED line for this election. I just can’t abide the fools right now and you are either “with us or against us!” The time for these foolish word games and baiting for attention are over. If you are going to stay home, piss and moan about Romney, or whine about Rhinos, then FO! Pick your side and fight for it!

texgal on September 27, 2012 at 10:18 PM

You’re welcome! They really aren’t trolls. They haven’t changed since I first started reading Hot Air four years ago. What happened is all the people who swore, after holding their nose and voting for McCain, they weren’t going to do it again, are doing it again. Me included.

But, you never expect the Spanish Inquisition. I never expected anything as vile and awful as Obama, and I am willing to put my principles on hold to get rid of him, but only until November 7th.
Luckily my congressman is Mike Kelly, a new TEA Party kind of guy, and he is doing a fantastic job, so he doesn’t need much prompting.

Night Owl on September 27, 2012 at 10:50 PM

This person has totally hijacked this thread, please stop responding to it, please…

ccrosby on September 27, 2012 at 9:54 PM

He admitted he was also cozmo

Steveangell on September 27, 2012 at 10:50 PM

I am really trying figure it out, which one gives her a better America.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 10:44 PM

Really?

looking back over the last four disastrous years you can’t figure it out?

And another one that is honestly too stupid to vote.

You were right partner – stay home – the grown-ups will take it from here.

Tim_CA on September 27, 2012 at 10:50 PM

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