Asking the experts: Which polls are, or aren’t, legitimate?

posted at 7:47 pm on September 27, 2012 by Allahpundit

After yesterday’s post on poll trustworthiness, I started wondering whether there’s any poll or model that’s been consistently accurate over time and therefore worth watching down the stretch as a weathervane of where the race really stands. I e-mailed two experts whom I trust and put that question to them. Is there any steady signal they trust amid the cacophony of statistical noise? Anyone we can look to as a beacon in the darkness when the NYT drops its next D+10 sample of Utah or whatever on us?

Short answer: No, there’s no one whom they count on to get it more or less right every time. Polling averages did well in 2008 and 2004 but not so well in 2000 and 1996. The first person I spoke to told me flatly that it’s not worth paying much attention to the numbers now because the assumptions being made about the composition of the electorate on November 6 differ too widely among individual pollsters to distill a truly useful average. That uncertainty is compounded by the fact that, with six weeks left until America votes, there’s still an ocean full of potential “black swans” — wonderful/terrible jobs reports, war with Iran, a new eurozone spasm, etc — that could send the trendlines fluttering. (Team Romney told Rich Lowry they think their dip in Gallup’s tracker lately is due to one such black-swan moment whose effects are already fading.) Once we get to within a week or two of election day and pollsters’ assumptions finally start to coalesce, the polling averages will become more reliable as an indicator of where the race really stands. As my own addendum to that, I think we’re close enough to the first debate that there’s no point picking through polls until late next week at the earliest. Why worry about this week’s data when there’s a hugely important event that’s bound to affect the race right around the corner?

My other source had less to say about the reliability of polling averages generally than their reliability with respect to specific candidates. He told me that if you look at historical averages, you find that they underestimated Gore in 2000, Dole in 1996, and Bush 41 in 1992 — all of them dull, somewhat stiff candidates whom their respective bases weren’t thrilled about. Why would polls miss the mark on people like that? His theory is that pollsters pay lots of attention to voter enthusiasm but less attention to whether voters say they’re “certain” to vote, and in the case of candidates who aren’t beloved by their base, those two variables don’t match up especially well. There were plenty of Republicans who weren’t enthusiastic about Bush and Dole but who were nonetheless certain to vote for them in hopes of defeating the Democrat. Ditto for Gore vis-a-vis the GOP. (Kerry and McCain were also dim lights to their bases and the polls gauged their support pretty well, but in McCain’s case he had a huge shot of enthusiasm late from adding Palin to the ticket.) He thinks the same thing could be happening this year — essentially, pollsters are keying off of the Dems’ slight edge in “enthusiasm” and missing the fact that plenty of unenthusiastic Republicans will be at the polls anyway to vote for a guy who’s taken to citing RomneyCare lately as proof of his empathy. If that’s the case, then they’re lowballing Romney’s support. And in a tight race, that’s potentially a decisive error.

See? I am capable of writing a poll post that’s not hopelessly eeyorish. Although I’d be lying if I said this wasn’t how I felt when I saw those Gallup numbers yesterday. Oof.


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Well, I don’t like the sound of this.

This is an interesting interview where CBS reporter Jan Crawford asks Romney about comments his supports have made to him on the rope line, imploring him to get ruthless and go on the attack. But Romney’s response is “this is a campaign not about character assassination…”

Video at http://www.therightscoop.com/romney-refuses-to-get-tougher-this-is-a-campaign-thats-not-about-character-assassination/

bluefox on September 27, 2012 at 8:29 PM

You are delusional to think that a majority of voters are going to give Obama four more years of failure and misery because of what Romney said about the 47%…

yep! deny the polls at your won risk, but they say that the 47% remarks were devastating!
look at this stuff:
http://www.mediaite.com/tv/snl-mocks-fox-friends-for-romneys-comments-and-on-air-corrections/

the 47% was just the cement missing to finish the dem narrative.

All the presidential elections are about the incumbent record when he is running for re-election… All the crap about gaffes, speeches, ads, and even debate do not matter at the end… It is about Obama utterly failed record…

voters are still giving obama some slack because of the bush years recession. that is my take.

It is about the economy, the unemplyment, the debt, the deficit, the high prices of gas and food…

unfortunately, in states like ohio, the economy is not so bad.

At the end of the day the majority of voters are going to ask the simplest but most important question: “Do we want four more years of this misery and failure?”… Their answer would be “No, hell No..”…

mnjg on September 27, 2012 at 8:09 PM

look, you are doing partisan spin. i wont rebute it but many voters do get other messages from the dems and they dont see things so dark.

nathor on September 27, 2012 at 8:30 PM

I think Obama will get 46-48% of the vote on November 6th…

MGardner on September 27, 2012 at 8:29 PM

No way. If he does, the country is too stupid to survive. Might as well make escape plans even when Mittens wins.

Lanceman on September 27, 2012 at 8:30 PM

I’m not voting for any of those guys either.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 8:25 PM

That’s right, you are voting for Obama.

I am tired of sitting home. I will actively vote Obama and get my family to join me if the nominee is Romney. While it would be nice to get a better job between 2013 and 2017, I am willing to wait.

astonerii on January 30, 2012 at 2:52 PM

Astroturd accuses me of stalking in 5..4….3…

JPeterman on September 27, 2012 at 8:30 PM

Republicans will be at the polls anyway to vote for a guy who’s taken to citing RomneyCare lately as proof of his empathy. If that’s the case, then they’re lowballing Romney’s support. And in a tight race, that’s potentially a decisive error.

2010 seems so very long ago.

Not really.

Americans remember they turned out in droves to vote against Obama Care or anything like it (Romney Care is nearly identical).

But sure they did that so in 2012 they could vote for Obama Care in the form of Mitt Romney.

Makes sense to me.

Steveangell on September 27, 2012 at 8:31 PM

I have 6 weeks to determine if Romney is worthy of of voting for.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 8:25 PM

Please consider voting for Romney. We’re at a tipping point in the country (may have already passed it in 2008) and we need to band together even if our opinions diverge. I disagree with Romney on 95% of issues, but will still vote for him to keep Obozo out of office.

sauldalinsky on September 27, 2012 at 8:32 PM

The War Planner on September 27, 2012 at 8:06 PM

Are you better off than 4 years ago is a terrible question to ask. I truly hope that Romney campaign is not thinking like you, otherwise we’re sunk. Truth be told, I’d also have to admit I’m better off than 4 years ago, profits are up, dow jones is up something like 60% since Obozo took office. Yes, I feel sorry for the unemployed, but conservatives aren’t ruled entirely by emotion. And, trying to convincing the moochers not to vote for Obama and stop their goodies is a Herculean task.

This is not 1980, and Romney is NOT Reagan

sauldalinsky on September 27, 2012 at 8:23 PM

..then you will be voting accordingly as well, right?

Good on your little ray of sunshine; I have been working at the same job without a raise for four years — and lucky to be employed. Also, I can’t speak for your personal little pot of gold, pal, but stocks are up because there’s no place else to put the money. Tried investing in bonds or real estate recently? And no one’s trying to convince the free-loading proles of anything. Just trying to get the economy going so those who want a decent job can find one instead of going on disability or collecting unemployment.

By the way, I wonder what will happen to your wealth when the whole shooting match experiences eight more quarters of 1.25% GDP because of unfettered Obama?

The War Planner on September 27, 2012 at 8:32 PM

Astroturd accuses me of stalking in 5..4….3…

JPeterman on September 27, 2012 at 8:30 PM

You watch yourself, mister!

Next thing you know he’ll be accusing you of abdicating and disavowing Dale Carnegie.

Lanceman on September 27, 2012 at 8:32 PM

Astroturd accuses me of stalking in 5..4….3…

JPeterman on September 27, 2012 at 8:30 PM

yeah, when you have nothing, you use personal attacks.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 8:32 PM

Please consider voting for Romney. We’re at a tipping point in the country (may have already passed it in 2008) and we need to band together even if our opinions diverge. I disagree with Romney on 95% of issues, but will still vote for him to keep Obozo out of office.

sauldalinsky on September 27, 2012 at 8:32 PM

..apologies for my rant; we agree on much more than I suspected. I was clumsy; sorry.

The War Planner on September 27, 2012 at 8:33 PM

The FOX poll has 7% undecided…

About 80% of that will break toward the challenger…

I am happy about the polls out tonight…

They have the swing states tightening such as Iowa, Nevada and Virginia…

MGardner on September 27, 2012 at 8:33 PM

No way. If he does, the country is too stupid to survive. Might as well make escape plans even when Mittens wins.

Lanceman on September 27, 2012 at 8:30 PM

We’re way past that. The Won’s got 49% in the tank already. We need to fight for every vote as the underdog, and hope to scratch a small victory.

sauldalinsky on September 27, 2012 at 8:34 PM

But sure they did that so in 2012 they could vote for Obama Care in the form of Mitt Romney.

Makes sense to me.

Steveangell on September 27, 2012 at 8:31 PM

Yeah. Um, let’s see, that’s a tough one: obamacare will destroy the free market in this country. I could vote for obama and there will be no chance of repeal or I could vote Mittens and have a chance he will keep his promise of repeal.

Hmm. What to do, what to do…

Lanceman on September 27, 2012 at 8:35 PM

This is not 1980, and Romney is NOT Reagan

sauldalinsky on September 27, 2012 at 8:23 PM

Hilarious.

And in 1980, sweetie, the msm was telling us reagan wasn’t reagan.

Tim_CA on September 27, 2012 at 8:35 PM

yeah, when you have nothing, you use personal attacks.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 8:32 PM

And when you have less than nothing, you hang around HotAir threads irritating people with hogwash.

Lanceman on September 27, 2012 at 8:36 PM

Romney is behind 5-6% as of now. He can narrow it to 2-3% by November (Kerry scenario) or slip further behind (Dukakis scenario). The after-debate polls will be very informative, if they still show Obama at +5, we are going the Dukakis way.

As to his odds to actually win, he is at 23% on Intrade and at 4:1 with the bookies. Even at 4:1 it does not look like a good bet to me.

For the good news, it seems that he is not dragging down the generic House vote much, the recent Bloomberg poll came out at R +2. And since the GOP managed to win the redistricting game last year, the chances to hold the House are quite good, even if the generic vote deteriorates to D +1 or D +2.

buridan on September 27, 2012 at 8:36 PM

yeah, when you have nothing, you use personal attacks.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 8:32 PM

That was no personal attack. Why don’t you tell the good people here how you feel about Andrew Breitbart.

JPeterman on September 27, 2012 at 8:36 PM

assassination…”

bluefox on September 27, 2012 at 8:29 PM

I will give her credibility when she asks the question of 0bama about the “freebies” his supporters scream about.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 8:36 PM

Irrelevant. As the only ones watching the debates will be political junkies who will already have their minds made up.

And regardless the outcome, the press already has stories to go ‘obama slaughters Romney in debate!’

Lanceman on September 27, 2012 at 8:23 PM

newt debate in SC invalidates your assertion. debates can matter.

nathor on September 27, 2012 at 8:37 PM

Astroturd accuses me of stalking in 5..4….3…

JPeterman on September 27, 2012 at 8:30 PM

Consider the source.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 8:37 PM

Hilarious.

And in 1980, sweetie, the msm was telling us reagan wasn’t reagan.

Tim_CA on September 27, 2012 at 8:35 PM

No not exactly. We were told that Reagan was too far to the right to win.

bgibbs1000 on September 27, 2012 at 8:38 PM

“I am happy about the polls out tonight…

They have the swing states tightening such as Iowa, Nevada and Virginia…”

You’re happy about Romney losing North Carolina? And this isn’t the first poll that’s shown that, either.

ELECTORAL LANDSLIDE.

gumbyandpokey on September 27, 2012 at 8:38 PM

I wonder… do the “we’re doomed” commenters show up on the polls where Romney leads?.. or is it just something Moby’s do to annoy real republican/conservative/libertarians?

The national media never allows the republican to spend much time leading in the polls, never have..

It’s freakin annoying, but we still won on several occasions where the media flatly said we had no chance.. 94 for instance.. I remember election night, many an anchor looked close to suicide..

and they kept questioning the numbers,..

mark81150 on September 27, 2012 at 8:38 PM

I am curious to see the monthly Rasmussen party affiliation poll next week.

brut4ce on September 27, 2012 at 8:38 PM

Does it occur to anyone that Downgrade’s Media arm is simply manufacturing news to cover-up his major screw-ups and bad economic news of the past few days?

Chip on September 27, 2012 at 8:39 PM

Makes sense to me.

Steveangell on September 27, 2012 at 8:31 PM

Of course it does to you 0bama lovin’ ABR idiot nutballs.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 8:39 PM

newt debate in SC invalidates your assertion. debates can matter.

nathor on September 27, 2012 at 8:37 PM

Sure they can. But Romney would have to be a Rick Perry for that to happen.

Lanceman on September 27, 2012 at 8:40 PM

..apologies for my rant; we agree on much more than I suspected. I was clumsy; sorry.

The War Planner on September 27, 2012 at 8:33 PM

No worries. My views are a little idiosyncratic at hotair because I think Obama’s leading and that we’re at tipping point in losing this country forever. It does seem like most of the people here believe that Romney’s comfortably in the lead, and the election will be a cakewalk.

sauldalinsky on September 27, 2012 at 8:41 PM

gumbyandpokey on September 27, 2012 at 8:38 PM

So you really want the country Downgraded?

What are you getting in exchange for betraying Liberty?

Chip on September 27, 2012 at 8:42 PM

I could vote Mittens and have a chance he will keep his promise of repeal.

Hmm. What to do, what to do…

Lanceman on September 27, 2012 at 8:35 PM

Is Mitt not making it clear he would replace it with Romney Care.

If so why bother Obama Care is Romney Care 99%.

Steveangell on September 27, 2012 at 8:42 PM

I wonder… do the “we’re doomed” commenters show up on the polls where Romney leads?.. or is it just something Moby’s do to annoy real republican/conservative/libertarians?

mark81150 on September 27, 2012 at 8:38 PM

I don’t know. Both astonerii and FloatingCrock have been here significantly longer than I have.

Up until recently, I’ve never noticed them being they way they are. They were never known for trollism.

Perhaps a trip down memory lane is in order.

Lanceman on September 27, 2012 at 8:42 PM

No not exactly. We were told that Reagan was too far to the right to win.

bgibbs1000 on September 27, 2012 at 8:38 PM

They also told us, that he WANTED a nuclear war.. that he was vastly too old.. and hey,… he was like.. an actor once upon a time.. with a chimp!…

No way, Jimmy C was gonna loose to a nice guy like him, after THEY were done demonizing him…

oh wait…….. he did beat JC.. remember those posters of Carter in Jesus robes?.. and liberals accused US of using the pulpit for politics…

mark81150 on September 27, 2012 at 8:43 PM

The third section is the assignment of the % of undecided to each Romney and Obama. So you need to enter the % of undecided for Romney and those for Obama. Historically the undecided go 2:1 for the challenger…

mnjg on September 27, 2012 at 8:01 PM

With all due respect, what is the purpose of you constantly wanting to push this on us? Is it to keep our confidence up or to convince yourself of something?

Robb on September 27, 2012 at 8:43 PM

Is Mitt not making it clear he would replace it with Romney Care.

If so why bother Obama Care is Romney Care 99%.

Steveangell on September 27, 2012 at 8:42 PM

Show anybody where he does that. Or be known to the noobs as the idiot we already know you are.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 8:45 PM

You’re happy about Romney losing North Carolina? And this isn’t the first poll that’s shown that, either.

ELECTORAL LANDSLIDE.

gumbyandpokey on September 27, 2012 at 8:38 PM

Right. Obama’s new 2 minute ad isn’t running in NC, so even they don’t think he’s pulling it out there.

But, you’re here to demoralize, so none of that would matter to you.

changer1701 on September 27, 2012 at 8:45 PM

No not exactly. We were told that Reagan was too far to the right to win.

bgibbs1000 on September 27, 2012 at 8:38 PM

Let’s see…he was going to get us into a nuclear war (had his finger on “the button” dontcha know), the poor were going to starve…he was senile, “trickle down” economics would cause untold disasters….you can call it “too far right”….I call it “pure nonsense” and definitely unReagan.

Tim_CA on September 27, 2012 at 8:45 PM

“I wonder… do the “we’re doomed” commenters show up on the polls where Romney leads?.. or is it just something Moby’s do to annoy real republican/conservative/libertarians?”

What polls have Romney ahead, lol?

I can’t think of a single one.

gumbyandpokey on September 27, 2012 at 8:45 PM

GAME OVER.

gumbyandpokey on September 27, 2012 at 8:16 PM

Game over? If you think that, then there’s no reason for any more of your orgasmic posts, right? So be gone then. Be the frick gone already.

Right Mover on September 27, 2012 at 8:45 PM

I wonder… do the “we’re doomed” commenters show up on the polls where Romney leads?.. or is it just something Moby’s do to annoy real republican/conservative/libertarians?

mark81150 on September 27, 2012 at 8:38 PM

Yes they do, with links to bad polls.

Let’s face it, too many people that post here WANT Romney to lose. Period. They’re either still bitter over the primaries, or think somehow it’s better for conservatives if Obama wins another term and is able to complete his destruction of the economy.

changer1701 on September 27, 2012 at 8:46 PM

newt debate in SC invalidates your assertion. debates can matter.

nathor on September 27, 2012 at 8:37 PM

You may want to rethink the wonderfullness of Newt’s debating skills after watching this.

Mitt hammers Newt.

JPeterman on September 27, 2012 at 8:47 PM


gumbyandpokey on September 27, 2012 at 8:45 PM

So you really want the country Downgraded?

What are you getting in exchange for betraying Liberty?

Chip on September 27, 2012 at 8:47 PM

My biggest issue with the Reagan comparisons is this: Mitt Romney isn’t Ronald Reagan. Reagan talked ideology. Mitt just doesn’t.

Ryan does, but he’s on the bottom of the ticket (and I think he would have won had he been our nominee for the same reason Reagan did).

cpaulus on September 27, 2012 at 8:48 PM

changer1701 on September 27, 2012 at 8:46 PM

Only the really stupid ABR nutballs believe that.

The rest dream of the socialist utopia just around the corner.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 8:49 PM

Does it occur to anyone that Downgrade’s Media arm is simply manufacturing news to cover-up his major screw-ups and bad economic news of the past few days?

Chip on September 27, 2012 at 8:39 PM

We all see it.. but does it register with ENOUGH voters that the media is playing defense for an incompetent boob?

I think yes, enough will notice..

But then.. in Ohio, we’re kinda done being the democrats scratching post.. the unions will make it closer than it should be,, but liberals are too few, and rank and file democrats are disillusioned with Obama’s many failures in the economy.

The GOP?

People are BURNING to get out and vote, all the enthusiasm is no Mitt’s side here.

mark81150 on September 27, 2012 at 8:49 PM

Show anybody where he does that. Or be known to the noobs as the idiot we already know you are.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 8:45 PM

Show me what he will replace it with.

Why is he touting Romney Care if that is not it?

Steveangell on September 27, 2012 at 8:50 PM

What polls have Romney ahead, lol?

I can’t think of a single one.

gumbyandpokey on September 27, 2012 at 8:45 PM

QStarNews Daily Tracking Poll

965 likely voters surveyed September 26, 2012

Choice of tickets for president/vice president:

Obama/Biden 42.20 percent
Romney/Ryan 55.38 percent
Johnson/Gray 1.99 percent

http://unskewedpolls.com/dtp_20120927.cfm

This is an actual poll not a re-adjusted poll.

GAME OVER.

bgibbs1000 on September 27, 2012 at 8:50 PM

People are BURNING to get out and vote, all the enthusiasm is no on Mitt’s side here.

oops..

mark81150 on September 27, 2012 at 8:51 PM

cpaulus on September 27, 2012 at 8:48 PM

If wishes were fishes…

Romney is the nominee. While he ain’t Reagan, 0bama is so much worse than Carter.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 8:51 PM

“Right. Obama’s new 2 minute ad isn’t running in NC, so even they don’t think he’s pulling it out there.

But, you’re here to demoralize, so none of that would matter to you.”

I would guess that Obama thinks NC is gravy and if he wins there, it’s a gigantic wipeout. Remember, all Obama needs is to win either Florida, Ohio or Virginia and the election is his.

Romney is just a Godawful candidate (one of the worst ever), but the fact of the matter is that it might be almost impossible for any Republican to win the White House anymore with the demographics being what they are and having no chance in CA, NY and IL to start.

No Republican has a chance on Democratic turf in a Presidential election. No chance at MI, no chance at PA, no chance at MN or WI, either. IA a longshot…

gumbyandpokey on September 27, 2012 at 8:52 PM

Let’s face it, too many people that post here WANT Romney to lose. Period. They’re either still bitter over the primaries, or think somehow it’s better for conservatives if Obama wins another term and is able to complete his destruction of the economy.

changer1701 on September 27, 2012 at 8:46 PM

And it’s friggin’ unbelievable. We have the worst president in modern history sitting in the WH…we have record unemployment….trillions in debt….no budget for 3 GD years…and people wanting to kill us that the dope is apologizing to.

These f4ckheads are the worst kind of RINO..l..putting their petty crap over family and country.

a-holes.

Tim_CA on September 27, 2012 at 8:52 PM

Show me what he will replace it with.

Why is he touting Romney Care if that is not it?

Steveangell on September 27, 2012 at 8:50 PM

You are the idiot moron that made the claim. You get to back it up, or be a lying fool…again.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 8:52 PM

Does it occur to anyone that Downgrade’s Media arm is simply manufacturing news to cover-up his major screw-ups and bad economic news of the past few days?

Chip on September 27, 2012 at 8:39 PM

We all see it.. but does it register with ENOUGH voters that the media is playing defense for an incompetent boob?

I think yes, enough will notice..

But then.. in Ohio, we’re kinda done being the democrats scratching post.. the unions will make it closer than it should be,, but liberals are too few, and rank and file democrats are disillusioned with Obama’s many failures in the economy.

The GOP?

People are BURNING to get out and vote, all the enthusiasm is on Mitt’s side here.

mark81150 on September 27, 2012 at 8:49 PM

It’s a good cover for Downgrade’s negligence in protecting our people over seas, and for the rest of his foreign policy incompetence and for his economic policy failures.

They’ve got a lot to cover up, don’t they?

Chip on September 27, 2012 at 8:53 PM

Show me what he will replace it with.

Why is he touting Romney Care if that is not it?

Steveangell on September 27, 2012 at 8:50 PM

Show us in Mitt’s words where he says he will replace ObamaCare with RomneyCare.

Your delusional thoughts don’t count.

JPeterman on September 27, 2012 at 8:55 PM

gumbyandpokey on September 27, 2012 at 8:52 PM

So a “good” candidate to you is one like Obama, who goes on the stump and constantly lies – about everything?

TarheelBen on September 27, 2012 at 8:57 PM

Please consider voting for Romney. We’re at a tipping point in the country (may have already passed it in 2008) and we need to band together even if our opinions diverge. I disagree with Romney on 95% of issues, but will still vote for him to keep Obozo out of office.

sauldalinsky on September 27, 2012 at 8:32 PM

1776 War
1787 failure of the articles of confederation
1861 Civil War
1911 WWI
1939 WWII
Nuclear USSR Cold War

But Obama, one man, he is the end of the world for us. There will be no possible recovery. Yadda Yadda Yadda. Obama is worse than the Civil War for the country.

The fact is that it is the voters that are destroying the nation. Obama is nothing more than a symptom. The Republicans are as responsible for this as the Democrats. Every opportunity we give them to turn back the self destructive programs of the nation they turn their backs on us.

Newt Gingrich was the very last politician who worked for the restoration of the United States of America and he is derided on these pages.

The poison is socialist programs. Beginning with Social Security, and moving down the list of the needy over time. Newt reformed welfare, which cut some of the decay in our population to some degree, but so long as these programs remain, there is no saving our precious United States of America, because they poison the soul of the people.

Obama is just fast forwarding us at a rate that the nation will not be able to financially sustain for long. Then the end of the line is here. Sink or swim!

So what about Romney? Marginally better than Obama on just about everything. So, for four years or eight, things might steady out a little bit, but for that time the decay of the American voter will continue. He will make sure the producers produce enough to keep feeding the moochers, but he will not reduce the ranks of those that have already moved to the so called 47%. In fact, if history is any indicator, even through the good times that Romney might oversee, those numbers will increase, as the peoples’ morals continue to decay being witness to the wealth transfers from producer to moochers. he has promised to make sure to get a plan to pay for Social Security and Medicare for decades to come.

Thus, the decay continues, but with the cliff pushed back a few years. The real question we should be asking is the following.

With all the technological improvements and the increases in productivity, is America better off today than it was 24 years ago. Was it better of 4 years ago compared to 20 years prior? 8 years ago and 16 prior to that? I am not convinced.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 8:57 PM

You may want to rethink the wonderfullness of Newt’s debating skills after watching this.

Mitt hammers Newt.

JPeterman on September 27, 2012 at 8:47 PM

sc debate was epic. newt was way behind and in a single answer to the journalist, he made the audiance stand up in applause. such was the vibe that he completely flipped the poll numbers. yeah, newt has huge vulnerabilities and romney managed to exploit them in the florida debates, but, against obama? it will be hard…

nathor on September 27, 2012 at 8:57 PM

“Let’s face it, too many people that post here WANT Romney to lose. Period. They’re either still bitter over the primaries, or think somehow it’s better for conservatives if Obama wins another term and is able to complete his destruction of the economy.”

No, I just think that some of us think it’s beyond stupid to disbelieve every poll.

How can the new Fox News poll be biased with a fair Dem +3 sample? That poll has Obama now winning Independents, too.

Romney is now losing every single national poll other than Ras where it’s tied, and every single battleground state poll. To think that every last poll is either incompetent or rigged borders on insanity or partisanship run amok.

I almost feel sorry for you guys if you are so deluded to think that on election day Romney will be sweeping the battlegrounds and winning an election that every poll had him losing. It just doesn’t happen.

gumbyandpokey on September 27, 2012 at 8:58 PM

Romney is the nominee. While he ain’t Reagan, 0bama is so much worse than Carter.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 8:51 PM

Huh. That’s a good way of looking at it.

And, as someone who lived through James Earl Carter, I can attest to that.

Hell, I’d vote for Carter now!

Lanceman on September 27, 2012 at 8:58 PM

I am not convinced.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 8:57 PM

You are so far up 0bama’s ABR rear end, God himself couldn’t convince you.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 8:58 PM

Hell, I’d vote for Carter now!

Lanceman on September 27, 2012 at 8:58 PM

Yup, as bad as he was, he was better than 0bama.

Only fools don’t see that.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 9:00 PM

My biggest issue with the Reagan comparisons is this: Mitt Romney isn’t Ronald Reagan. Reagan talked ideology. Mitt just doesn’t.

Ryan does, but he’s on the bottom of the ticket (and I think he would have won had he been our nominee for the same reason Reagan did).

cpaulus on September 27, 2012 at 8:48 PM

That’s asking alot..

You don’t think Mitt can win, if he’s not already a giant? Reagan wasn’t always the 900lb gorilla either, it took 80, and 84 to do that..

If Mitt wins BIG,.. succeeds in a big economic turn araound,.. then wins a second landslide.. he’ll be compared to Reagan as a matter of course..

Both men have their strengths.. it’s not realistic to hold them to too strict a standard.. success breeds respect, and it also ends a lot of the nay saying..

All democrats did in 80 was laugh uncontrollably when you said Reagan would win,.. they BEGGED us to nominate someone they were certain they could beat..

I’m hearing the same thing today.. dems are CERTAIN they’ll win with the MSM giving them cover.. no Obama gaffe goof or boneheaded mistake sees air time.. except for FOX.. yet.. people are upset, unhappy, and if democrats write Mitt off when the voters are unhappy after 4 years of them..

They’re damn fools.

mark81150 on September 27, 2012 at 9:01 PM

For the good news, it seems that he is not dragging down the generic House vote much, the recent Bloomberg poll came out at R +2. And since the GOP managed to win the redistricting game last year, the chances to hold the House are quite good, even if the generic vote deteriorates to D +1 or D +2. buridan on September 27, 2012 at 8:36 PM

Since Independents comprise 30% of the electorate, and Romney leads Independents by 10%, a D+ 1 turnout is a Romney victory.

BTW, the chances of a D+1 turnout are zero.

Basilsbest on September 27, 2012 at 9:01 PM

“So a “good” candidate to you is one like Obama, who goes on the stump and constantly lies – about everything?”

IMO, a good candidate is one who can get their main points out clearly and succinctly, can connect with the average voter, and attacks his opponent and keeps him off-balance and on the defensive.

Mitt Romney does none of this.

gumbyandpokey on September 27, 2012 at 9:02 PM

Romney is just a Godawful candidate (one of the worst ever), but the fact of the matter is that it might be almost impossible for any Republican to win the White House anymore with the demographics being what they are and having no chance in CA, NY and IL to start.

No Republican has a chance on Democratic turf in a Presidential election. No chance at MI, no chance at PA, no chance at MN or WI, either. IA a longshot…

gumbyandpokey on September 27, 2012 at 8:52 PM

Bull.

Romney is losing because his vision is far too close to Obama’s.

Ryan got cheers, Ryan is loved by the base. Put Ryan on top he would win in a landslide.

But any of the others would also be way ahead now.

Romney is the problem not the GOP. Other than that the GOP nominated Romney.

Steveangell on September 27, 2012 at 9:02 PM

I registered to be an election judge today….in CRook County!

herm2416 on September 27, 2012 at 9:02 PM

But Obama, one man, he is the end of the world for us. There will be no possible recovery. Yadda Yadda Yadda. Obama is worse than the Civil War for the country.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 8:57 PM

Amazing. Not just obama, J-Ball. It truly isn’t ‘obamacare’. A more apt description would be Pelosicare. Or, if you really wanna get to the meat of it, Waxmancare. That thing’s been sitting in his and John Dingell’s desk for decades awaiting an obama-pied-piper to get it implemented.

And it truly isn’t his economy. Pelosi, Reid, Dodd and Fwank deserve the majority of the blame. But he’s done nothing to stop it. Quite the contrary.

Lanceman on September 27, 2012 at 9:03 PM

I am not convinced.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 8:57 PM

Blah, blah, blah, Moby.

I am tired of sitting home. I will actively vote Obama and get my family to join me if the nominee is Romney. While it would be nice to get a better job between 2013 and 2017, I am willing to wait.

astonerii on January 30, 2012 at 2:52 PM

JPeterman on September 27, 2012 at 9:04 PM

No worries. My views are a little idiosyncratic at hotair because I think Obama’s leading and that we’re at tipping point in losing this country forever. It does seem like most of the people here believe that Romney’s comfortably in the lead, and the election will be a cakewalk.

sauldalinsky on September 27, 2012 at 8:41 PM

..again, we are in “violent agreement” as a good fiend of mine used to say. This is a very critical moment. What tore it for me was the “Free Phone Lady” in the video: she ant the “Rent Lady” and the “Obama’s Stash” women are THE personification of what this nation will become.

And I am sincerely glad for your good fortune. I wish you continued success. (But diversify! Diversify! Diversify!)

The War Planner on September 27, 2012 at 9:04 PM

BTW, the chances of a D+1 turnout are zero.

Basilsbest on September 27, 2012 at 9:01 PM

Right. The thrill of voting for black Chicago Jesus only works once.

And the rank & file ‘rats have even less to be happy about than I do.

Lanceman on September 27, 2012 at 9:06 PM

That was no personal attack. Why don’t you tell the good people here how you feel about Andrew Breitbart.

JPeterman on September 27, 2012 at 8:36 PM

Misspelling my name the way you did seriously is not a personal attack? Takes a pretty sick person to say that and actually see himself as being honest.

As far as Breitbart. He was a traitor. He brought the enemy into the gate for his own accolades. He was then betrayed by them. Even he admitted eventually it was a mistake. The problem being, the damage was done. He gave cover to several republican progressives to vote for the repeal of Don’t Ask, Don’t tell.

He was blinded. Did not understand the consequences of his actions. Or he did and did not care.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:06 PM

Sadassed nonsense. Allahpundit’s approach in this is no different from shoveling all the polls at us sans discernment. He reports a smattering of opinion in all directions and arrives at nothing, except a recapitulation of his fears.

There have been studies made, looking at the majoe polling houses and their peroformances over time and more importantly looking at their results over the span of races and not just the last week or two when they all suddenly tighten up their methods / samples so they aren’t wildly ofrf come election night. And some of the biggest, like NYT and Gallup rank the worst. And Rasmussen consistently comes the closest throughout.

But all of this goes right back to the same flawed framing / premise / methodology – the quest to pick and choose which polls to parrot and which to exclude – and that fails utterly to grasp the core of the issue, that their samples are shit, the pollsters methodology and intentions highly suspect.

One has to simply look at them all, integrate them all, pick them apart and in the end not give them too much weight at all because ultimately they mean nothing. Instead of being a gossipmongering idiot that lives and dies by massively unbalanced poll samples and contrived headlines foisted on us by the marxists that run the AP and Reuters. You know, the folks who today chose to promulgate a picture of Netanyahu at his UN speech seemingly giving a nazi salute. THOSE are the kinds of people you are letting affect your mind, allahpundit. Free you mind, your stuffed donkey will follow.

rayra on September 27, 2012 at 9:07 PM

I have 6 weeks to determine if Romney is worthy of of voting for.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 8:25 PM

Please consider voting for Romney. We’re at a tipping point in the country (may have already passed it in 2008) and we need to band together even if our opinions diverge. I disagree with Romney on 95% of issues, but will still vote for him to keep Obozo out of office.

sauldalinsky on September 27, 2012 at 8:32 PM

sauldalinsky, waste of breath.

astonerii, stop holding yours, you’ll pass out.

OTTO on September 27, 2012 at 9:07 PM

I am tired of sitting home. I will actively vote Obama and get my family to join me if the nominee is Romney. While it would be nice to get a better job between 2013 and 2017, I am willing to wait.

astonerii on January 30, 2012 at 2:52 PM

JPeterman on September 27, 2012 at 9:04 PM

Crap. Thanks for posting that. I’m done talking to that a$$hole.

Lanceman on September 27, 2012 at 9:07 PM

gumbyandpokey on September 27, 2012 at 8:52 PM

Bull.

Steveangell on September 27, 2012 at 9:02 PM

Nutball 0bama lover on nutball 0bama lover…pass the popcorn

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 9:07 PM

Bull.

Romney is losing because his vision is far too close to Obama’s.

Ryan got cheers, Ryan is loved by the base. Put Ryan on top he would win in a landslide.

But any of the others would also be way ahead now.

Romney is the problem not the GOP. Other than that the GOP nominated Romney.

Steveangell on September 27, 2012 at 9:02 PM

Exactly, too close to the other side in policy. Romney thinks he can manage marxism better than a marxist.

bgibbs1000 on September 27, 2012 at 9:08 PM

“Ryan got cheers, Ryan is loved by the base. Put Ryan on top he would win in a landslide.”

I know Paul Ryan. Paul Ryan is a friend of mine. Well, not really, but I have met him. He’s smart as a whip, but I think you would be disappointed with him at the top of the ticket. He’s not terribly charismatic, doesn’t like to attack and has more in common with Romney’s “gentlemanly approach” than someone who likes to be aggressive and hard hitting.

He’d be better than Romney, but still would lose to Obama. I can’t think of the last time Obama was on the defensive vs the GOP. Maybe immediately after Palin’s brilliant convention speech?

gumbyandpokey on September 27, 2012 at 9:08 PM

Allahpundit’s approach in this is no different from shoveling all the polls at us sans discernment. He reports a smattering of opinion in all directions and arrives at nothing, except a recapitulation of his fears.
rayra on September 27, 2012 at 9:07 PM

Just AP being AP

OTTO on September 27, 2012 at 9:08 PM

My views are a little idiosyncratic at hotair because I think Obama’s leading and that we’re at tipping point in losing this country forever.
sauldalinsky on September 27, 2012 at 8:41 PM

I am with you! I am usually the optimistic, everything is gonna be alright kind of gal! But, I got this bad feeling! I have faith, but I must confess the fact that O is even in this race speaks volumes. Something is not right!

texgal on September 27, 2012 at 9:09 PM

Misspelling my name the way you did seriously is not a personal attack? Takes a pretty sick person to say that and actually see himself as being honest.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:06 PM

The rest of us thought it was pretty funny.

Whine away loser.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 9:09 PM

I am tired of sitting home. I will actively vote Obama and get my family to join me if the nominee is Romney. While it would be nice to get a better job between 2013 and 2017, I am willing to wait.

astonerii on January 30, 2012 at 2:52 PM

JPeterman on September 27, 2012 at 9:04 PM

My my, don’t we hold onto things for a long time. Shows a great mind at work. Right? Personally, I think you have a tiny mind. But you have your popularity here at least. Bravo, bravo.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:09 PM

The rest of us thought it was pretty funny.

Whine away loser.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 9:09 PM

Of course you did. Its a popularity click you guys have here. Much like high school.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:10 PM

Misspelling my name the way you did seriously is not a personal attack? Takes a pretty sick person to say that and actually see himself as being honest.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:06 PM

Gee, I could have called you the Obot a$$hole that you are.

JPeterman on September 27, 2012 at 9:12 PM

I will actively vote Obama and get my family to join me if the nominee is Romney. While it would be nice to get a better job between 2013 and 2017, I am willing to wait.

astonerii on January 30, 2012 at 2:52 PM

Then DAMN you! You are a traitor!

texgal on September 27, 2012 at 9:13 PM

..again, we are in “violent agreement” as a good fiend of mine used to say. This is a very critical moment. What tore it for me was the “Free Phone Lady” in the video: she ant the “Rent Lady” and the “Obama’s Stash” women are THE personification of what this nation will become.

And I am sincerely glad for your good fortune. I wish you continued success. (But diversify! Diversify! Diversify!)

The War Planner on September 27, 2012 at 9:04 PM

IS, and Romney AINT STOPPING IT. he will promote it as he tells America he can figure out how to pay for it!

So the question remains, which is more destructive. Romney extending welfare state for at least two more generations to make more of those women our of our citizens according to Ryan. Or having a follow on financial crisis in the near future with Obama.

Romney AINT OFFERING a change in direction.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:15 PM

Of course you did. Its a popularity click you guys have here. Much like high school.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:10 PM

Caught red-handed and you blame the messenger?

OTTO on September 27, 2012 at 9:15 PM

No, I just think that some of us think it’s beyond stupid to disbelieve every poll.

gumbyandpokey on September 27, 2012 at 8:58 PM

Baloney. The only time you post anything is to revel in the latest skewed poll showing Romney behind, and only someone hell bent on seeing him lose would do that. Others here are concerned about the numbers, no question, but you don’t see them doing that.

And, it’s beyond stupid to declare more than a month out that all is lost, that it’s game over, etc, as you continue to do, relying on polling that is replete with bad sampling. All, again, in an effort to discourage and demoralize.

changer1701 on September 27, 2012 at 9:15 PM

My my, don’t we hold onto things for a long time. Shows a great mind at work. Right? Personally, I think you have a tiny mind. But you have your popularity here at least. Bravo, bravo.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:09 PM

Something that stupid is worth holding on to.

Of course you did. Its a popularity click you guys have here. Much like high school.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:10 PM

Not a HS popularity thing. Piling on a stupid masochist asking for it thing.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 9:15 PM

bgibbs1000 on September 27, 2012 at 8:50 PM

don’t take this wrong. I am a Romney supporter and will vote for him.

but unskewed polls uses Rasmussens party id info that Rasmussen is constantly polling and averages out every 3 months.

although Rasmussen does this it is currently using DEM+2 even thouth at the end of august its party id poll was at 3.6 republican.

unskewed is using this 3.6 +R in the polls it unskews and in it’s tracking poll.

now I believe that the election will be R+1. but that does not change that Rasmussen itself is using DEM+2 in own polls

gerry-mittbot

gerrym51 on September 27, 2012 at 9:15 PM

Then DAMN you! You are a traitor!

texgal on September 27, 2012 at 9:13 PM

Context tex. But what ever. Most of the people on Hot Air are just here to get their ego’s stroked.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:16 PM

It truly isn’t ‘obamacare’. A more apt description would be Pelosicare. Or, if you really wanna get to the meat of it, Waxmancare. That thing’s been sitting in his and John Dingell’s desk for decades awaiting an obama-pied-piper to get it implemented.

And it truly isn’t his economy. Pelosi, Reid, Dodd and Fwank deserve the majority of the blame. But he’s done nothing to stop it. Quite the contrary.

Lanceman on September 27, 2012 at 9:03 PM

Just call it Romney Care he did get it into law first. It was his idea.

Steveangell on September 27, 2012 at 9:17 PM

Context tex. But what ever. Most of the people on Hot Air are just here to get their ego’s stroked.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:16 PM

Can you go 2 minutes without typing? The only thing worse than a d-bag is a long-winded d-bag.

(oh and btw – “stroke” this)

Tim_CA on September 27, 2012 at 9:19 PM

Testy. Testy.

I’m a realist; and you can’t win this thing by pretending reality isn’t reality.

lorien1973 on September 27, 2012 at 8:06 PM

Nonsense. Romney’s campaign is perfect! Anyone who suggests he tries new strategies, like the negative advertising blitz that won him the primaries, is obviously a traitor and maybe a Democratic plant! /

Doomberg on September 27, 2012 at 9:20 PM

Just call it Romney Care he did get it into law first. It was his idea.

Steveangell on September 27, 2012 at 9:17 PM

Got caught in a lie but continue it. Go figure.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 9:21 PM

Romney AINT OFFERING a change in direction.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:15 PM

You are full of $H!TT! And I am not a Mittbot!

texgal on September 27, 2012 at 9:21 PM

don’t take this wrong. I am a Romney supporter and will vote for him.

but unskewed polls uses Rasmussens party id info that Rasmussen is constantly polling and averages out every 3 months.

although Rasmussen does this it is currently using DEM+2 even thouth at the end of august its party id poll was at 3.6 republican.

unskewed is using this 3.6 +R in the polls it unskews and in it’s tracking poll.

now I believe that the election will be R+1. but that does not change that Rasmussen itself is using DEM+2 in own polls

gerry-mittbot

gerrym51 on September 27, 2012 at 9:15 PM

Not in it’s tracking poll.

that poll has a D+.6 sample if I remember correctly.

bgibbs1000 on September 27, 2012 at 9:21 PM

The QStarNews poll works with the premise that the partisan makeup of the electorate 34.8 percent Republicans, 35.2 percent Democrats and 30.0 percent independent voters. Additionally, our model is based on the electorate including approximately 41.0 percent conservatives, 20.0 percent moderates and 39.0 percent liberals.

Correction D+.4

bgibbs1000 on September 27, 2012 at 9:22 PM

And, it’s beyond stupid to declare more than a month out that all is lost, that it’s game over, etc, as you continue to do, relying on polling that is replete with bad sampling. All, again, in an effort to discourage and demoralize.

changer1701 on September 27, 2012 at 9:15 PM

More than a month out? Gumby’s been pulling this tired schtick of his since May.

Right Mover on September 27, 2012 at 9:22 PM

Can you go 2 minutes without typing? The only thing worse than a d-bag is a long-winded d-bag.

(oh and btw – “stroke” this)

Tim_CA on September 27, 2012 at 9:19 PM

I can go as longer without typing as you and your friends can go on without masturbating to your deity Romney.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:23 PM

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:15 PM

You are full of $H!TT!

texgal on September 27, 2012 at 9:21 PM

Yeah, but he’s ours…Huffpo wouldn’t take him.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 9:23 PM

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 9:23 PM

Wrong dummy, csdeven and bluegills ain’t even here.

cozmo on September 27, 2012 at 9:24 PM

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