Asking the experts: Which polls are, or aren’t, legitimate?

posted at 7:47 pm on September 27, 2012 by Allahpundit

After yesterday’s post on poll trustworthiness, I started wondering whether there’s any poll or model that’s been consistently accurate over time and therefore worth watching down the stretch as a weathervane of where the race really stands. I e-mailed two experts whom I trust and put that question to them. Is there any steady signal they trust amid the cacophony of statistical noise? Anyone we can look to as a beacon in the darkness when the NYT drops its next D+10 sample of Utah or whatever on us?

Short answer: No, there’s no one whom they count on to get it more or less right every time. Polling averages did well in 2008 and 2004 but not so well in 2000 and 1996. The first person I spoke to told me flatly that it’s not worth paying much attention to the numbers now because the assumptions being made about the composition of the electorate on November 6 differ too widely among individual pollsters to distill a truly useful average. That uncertainty is compounded by the fact that, with six weeks left until America votes, there’s still an ocean full of potential “black swans” — wonderful/terrible jobs reports, war with Iran, a new eurozone spasm, etc — that could send the trendlines fluttering. (Team Romney told Rich Lowry they think their dip in Gallup’s tracker lately is due to one such black-swan moment whose effects are already fading.) Once we get to within a week or two of election day and pollsters’ assumptions finally start to coalesce, the polling averages will become more reliable as an indicator of where the race really stands. As my own addendum to that, I think we’re close enough to the first debate that there’s no point picking through polls until late next week at the earliest. Why worry about this week’s data when there’s a hugely important event that’s bound to affect the race right around the corner?

My other source had less to say about the reliability of polling averages generally than their reliability with respect to specific candidates. He told me that if you look at historical averages, you find that they underestimated Gore in 2000, Dole in 1996, and Bush 41 in 1992 — all of them dull, somewhat stiff candidates whom their respective bases weren’t thrilled about. Why would polls miss the mark on people like that? His theory is that pollsters pay lots of attention to voter enthusiasm but less attention to whether voters say they’re “certain” to vote, and in the case of candidates who aren’t beloved by their base, those two variables don’t match up especially well. There were plenty of Republicans who weren’t enthusiastic about Bush and Dole but who were nonetheless certain to vote for them in hopes of defeating the Democrat. Ditto for Gore vis-a-vis the GOP. (Kerry and McCain were also dim lights to their bases and the polls gauged their support pretty well, but in McCain’s case he had a huge shot of enthusiasm late from adding Palin to the ticket.) He thinks the same thing could be happening this year — essentially, pollsters are keying off of the Dems’ slight edge in “enthusiasm” and missing the fact that plenty of unenthusiastic Republicans will be at the polls anyway to vote for a guy who’s taken to citing RomneyCare lately as proof of his empathy. If that’s the case, then they’re lowballing Romney’s support. And in a tight race, that’s potentially a decisive error.

See? I am capable of writing a poll post that’s not hopelessly eeyorish. Although I’d be lying if I said this wasn’t how I felt when I saw those Gallup numbers yesterday. Oof.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2 3 4

I’m not worried about polls. I’m worried about Romney’s spine.

Mark1971 on September 27, 2012 at 7:49 PM

The only legitimate poll takes place on Nov. 6th, until then, it’s all Fifth Column Treasonous Media propaganda to protect Jimmy carter II.

SWalker on September 27, 2012 at 7:51 PM

Polls: Just not worth it!

Valkyriepundit on September 27, 2012 at 7:51 PM

Take yer fake polls and shut-up already. Bring on the debates.

(that was for the legacy media…not you ap)

Tim_CA on September 27, 2012 at 7:51 PM

Although I’d be lying if I said this wasn’t how I felt when I saw those Gallup numbers yesterday. Oof.

Quit worrying. As I’ve always said : obama will not get 40,000,000 votes.

Count it.

Lanceman on September 27, 2012 at 7:51 PM

Any poll by a seller of advertising is designed primarily to sell advertising.

meci on September 27, 2012 at 7:53 PM

I am capable of writing a poll post that’s not hopelessly eeyorish

Just when I was starting to feel a little “eeyorish” myself..:)

Dire Straits on September 27, 2012 at 7:53 PM

All the polls got the 2010 midterms wrong and they are doing the same thing here. Why is it wrong to point out the obvious?

ModerateMan on September 27, 2012 at 7:53 PM

Best to just tune out the garbage for a few weeks, until the pollsters try to retain their shreds of credibility.

The latest idiocy is the NBC’s poll today positing that Romney’s behind in North Carolina. Uh huh, sure.

KingGold on September 27, 2012 at 7:54 PM

Although I’d be lying if I said this wasn’t how I felt when I saw those Gallup numbers yesterday. Oof.

LoLz..Now I feel better Allah..Much better..:)

Dire Straits on September 27, 2012 at 7:54 PM

On a Bright side….Virginia is an early voting state and the numbers SLIPPED today for Obama…to Romney’s favor on Realclearpolitics.

One recent pull came out in Virginia with basically a dead tie..
Obama +2.

Worthy of note is OBAMA polled at 46% in Virginia….on the doorsteps of Early Voting.

IOWA is voting today and Realclearpolitics has THE ONE
at 46%

Voter/Consumer Res/TIR (R)

Romney leading in that IOWA poll.

Sure you can point at PPP (D) Obama +7….

But, I’ll stick with Romney +1 IOWA.
or the Rasmussen poll ROMNEY +3.

Varchild on September 27, 2012 at 7:54 PM

Quit worrying. As I’ve always said : obama will not get 40,000,000 votes.

Count it.

Lanceman on September 27, 2012 at 7:51 PM

lol…..don’t be so sure….I hear a lot of dead dems are going to turn out to vote this year.

Tim_CA on September 27, 2012 at 7:54 PM

Another post on polls…!

… DRINK!!!

*clinky!*

:)

Seven Percent Solution on September 27, 2012 at 7:55 PM

…N O N E…!!!

KOOLAID2 on September 27, 2012 at 7:55 PM

In other news,

President Obama is leading GOP challenger Mitt Romney in three more swing states – New Hampshire, Nevada and North Carolina, a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll shows.

The fact that POTUS is in the race proves the stupidity and knavery of mankind.

On second thought, do these polls check ID or ask questions in Arabic?

IlikedAUH2O on September 27, 2012 at 7:55 PM

AP, I appreciate your posting this and all of the folks here at HG trying to dissect this subject. But, plain and simple:

I cannot conceive of any intelligent Romney supporter say to themselves, “Well, I see where Obama’s election and four more years of this crapola are inevitable, so I might as well go along with the crowd.

Get real, folks. It’s gonna come down to the debates and the last four weeks. Romney’s got a pile of cash; Obama does not. (He’s got $7 million in the bank, a $10 million loan, and still owes $15 million on the D&C convention in Charlotte.).

Keep focused: ARE YOU BETTER OFF THAN YOU WERE FOUR YEARS AGO?

The War Planner on September 27, 2012 at 7:55 PM

So, allah; if romney doesn’t blow the doors off at the first debate; is that panic time?

lorien1973 on September 27, 2012 at 7:55 PM

Mitt is doing magnificently.

And I’m appreciative of Allahpundit’s very apparent hard work. His posts are thoughtful and honest. He has obviously been listening to reader feedback and has been doing a lot to help readers understand what the polls mean or don’t mean.

bluegill on September 27, 2012 at 7:56 PM

I heard someone on Fox a few days ago that said that King Obama would win the popular vote, but lose the White House. It was not Dick Morris.

JPeterman on September 27, 2012 at 7:56 PM

Seven Percent Solution on September 27, 2012 at 7:55 PM

Hilarious!

CHEERS! (clink)

Tim_CA on September 27, 2012 at 7:57 PM

The War Planner on September 27, 2012 at 7:55 PM

Mitt’s huge money advantage was debunked weeks ago.

lorien1973 on September 27, 2012 at 7:57 PM

I heard someone on Fox a few days ago that said that King Obama would win the popular vote, but lose the White House. It was not Dick Morris.

JPeterman on September 27, 2012 at 7:56 PM

Uhm no… You got it backwards. That was KARL ROVE saying that MITT ROMNEY would win the POPULAR vote but lose the Electoral College vote…..Due to the Republican States polling higher percentages for ROMNEY than the LIBERAL states polling for OBAMA.

Varchild on September 27, 2012 at 7:58 PM

If it is not Rasmussen, I don’t even consider it legit…

Khun Joe on September 27, 2012 at 7:58 PM

If Romney ends up winning, we need to make the media eat the polls and explain themselves.

jp on September 27, 2012 at 7:58 PM

Team Romney told Rich Lowry they think their dip in Gallup’s tracker lately is due to one such black-swan moment whose effects are already fading.

Don’t apologize Team Romney, remember your “No Apologies” slogan? The 47% video could still be a moment of clarity if you own the conservative principles and use the video in your own ads and call out the moochers who want food stamps and free Obama phones. It’ll go perfectly with the NAACP speech that Romney/Ryan is willing to tell hard truths and that Romney gives the same message regardless of audience.

sauldalinsky on September 27, 2012 at 7:58 PM

So, allah; if romney doesn’t blow the doors off at the first debate; is that panic time?

lorien1973 on September 27, 2012 at 7:55 PM

Paging Rick Perry..Red courtesy phone Gov. Perry..:)

Dire Straits on September 27, 2012 at 7:58 PM

I’m not worried about polls. I’m worried about Romney’s spine.

Mark1971 on September 27, 2012 at 7:49 PM

..go read Hinderaker’s post today on Power Line blog:

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2012/09/keep-calm-and-carry-on.php

The War Planner on September 27, 2012 at 7:59 PM

Seven Percent Solution on September 27, 2012 at 7:55 PM

rofl..Good one..*clink*..:)

Dire Straits on September 27, 2012 at 8:00 PM

going full eeyore! its lost! dont try to deny reality. mitt blew it with the 47% stuff! blame it on carter grandson!

nathor on September 27, 2012 at 8:00 PM

Keep focused: ARE YOU BETTER OFF THAN YOU WERE FOUR YEARS AGO?

The War Planner on September 27, 2012 at 7:55 PM

And the honest answer is, Yes I am better off than I was 4 years ago. I am not better off than I was 8 years ago.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 8:00 PM

Keep focused: ARE YOU BETTER OFF THAN YOU WERE FOUR YEARS AGO?

The War Planner on September 27, 2012 at 7:55 PM

+ 100..Hear!..Hear!..:)

Dire Straits on September 27, 2012 at 8:01 PM

Some science for you Allah Pundit regarding polls:

I have this “Poll adjustment Calculator” that you can download from the link below. You can use it to adjust the Party ID breakdown to reflect a more realistic party ID breakdown on Elections Day and get the more realistic poll results. You can use it to adjust any state or national poll. You may use it to adjust a poll accordingly before you post a media poll on HotAir and include the adjustment in your analysis to put things in perspective and make the polls more realistic.

http://www.fileconvoy.com/dfl.php?id=g0f9a1c6111e9b12e14951111d0a0649192bfc3

The first section is to enter the results from a media poll, including % of democrats, % of Republicans, % of Independents, enter % Obama, % Romney, % Undecided, % Others for each of these groups ( i.e. demorats, Republicans, Independents)…

The second section is to t adjust the % democrats, % Republicans, % of Independents to match a more realistic elections turnout for each group. The worst case scenario would be democrats + 3% over Republicans but the most probable scenario is % republicans = % democrats on elections day. Make sure that when you do the adjustments for each of these group that they add to 100%.

The third section is the assignment of the % of undecided to each Romney and Obama. So you need to enter the % of undecided for Romney and those for Obama. Historically the undecided go 2:1 for the challenger…

mnjg on September 27, 2012 at 8:01 PM

Keep focused: ARE YOU BETTER OFF THAN YOU WERE FOUR YEARS AGO?

The War Planner on September 27, 2012 at 7:55 PM

No freaking way! And I don’t know one person who is.

I see millions staying home on the obama side.

It will take massive voter fraud on a scale inconceivable.

Lanceman on September 27, 2012 at 8:01 PM

I remember when Allahpundit would sometimes put little effort into analyzing how we should approach certain polls. He’d just throw up a number, express alarm, throw up his hands, then basically wrap things up. Recently there has been a big improvement in the way he approaches polls. In essence, he’s giving us a lot more food for thought (but isn’t necessarily just discounting the polls or claiming they’re part of some conspiracy), and I feel like this extra effort of his should be applauded. Another reason why this blog continues to be one of the best.

bluegill on September 27, 2012 at 8:01 PM

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 8:00 PM

Good for you..Vote for Obie and double down..:)

Dire Straits on September 27, 2012 at 8:02 PM

See? I am capable of writing a poll post that’s not hopelessly eeyorish.

Looks like I won’t be hiding Eeyore’s tail – tonight!:)

Loved the video

tbrickert on September 27, 2012 at 8:03 PM

The War Planner on September 27, 2012 at 7:55 PM

Mitt’s huge money advantage was debunked weeks ago.

lorien1973 on September 27, 2012 at 7:57 PM

Take your whining back to Ace’s.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 8:00 PM

And will you just get lost?

Lanceman on September 27, 2012 at 8:03 PM

The only poll anyone can trust is the red and white one in front of a danged Barbershop.

There you can get a haircut and even IF they screw it up, you can get another one in about 2 weeks.

After 6 November….we won’t even care…..until the next election cycle.

RealMc on September 27, 2012 at 8:03 PM

Uhm no… You got it backwards. That was KARL ROVE saying that MITT ROMNEY would win the POPULAR vote but lose the Electoral College vote…..Due to the Republican States polling higher percentages for ROMNEY than the LIBERAL states polling for OBAMA.

Varchild on September 27, 2012 at 7:58 PM

I think that’s a distinct possibility. It’d be karma, coming back to bite us.

changer1701 on September 27, 2012 at 8:04 PM

October 3rd will let all of us know if Mitt Romney is serious about taking on Barackabama.

SouthernGent on September 27, 2012 at 8:04 PM

Uhm no… You got it backwards. That was KARL ROVE saying that MITT ROMNEY would win the POPULAR vote but lose the Electoral College vote…..Due to the Republican States polling higher percentages for ROMNEY than the LIBERAL states polling for OBAMA.

Varchild on September 27, 2012 at 7:58 PM

Nope, it wasn’t Karl Rove, I would have remembered that name.

JPeterman on September 27, 2012 at 8:04 PM

erin burnett defending the crap out of the cnn polls tonight….

spineless gop talking head just nodding his head

cmsinaz on September 27, 2012 at 8:04 PM

I cannot conceive of any intelligent Romney supporter say to themselves, “Well, I see where Obama’s election and four more years of this crapola are inevitable, so I might as well go along with the crowd.”

The War Planner on September 27, 2012 at 7:55 PM

The problem is that they could end up feeling deflated or discouraged, and might just want to tune out the election and not put in the effort to get up and vote (even if they WANT Romney to win).

bluegill on September 27, 2012 at 8:04 PM

If it is not Rasmussen, I don’t even consider it legit…

Khun Joe on September 27, 2012 at 7:58 PM

So true…..the bulk of the moron polls floating around now are so juiced it’s laughable.

If it’s not rasmussen …. especially if commissioned by legacy media…..I ignore it.

It’s worse than worthless.

Tim_CA on September 27, 2012 at 8:04 PM

I see millions staying home on the obama side.
Lanceman on September 27, 2012 at 8:01 PM

So hope you are right..I so hope..:)

Dire Straits on September 27, 2012 at 8:05 PM

lol…..don’t be so sure….I hear a lot of dead dems are going to turn out to vote this year.

Tim_CA on September 27, 2012 at 7:54 PM

Already did, via absentee votes.

riddick on September 27, 2012 at 8:05 PM

Did either of your experts offer any observations concerning the 9% participation rate or specific caveats regarding this year, AP?

PolAgnostic on September 27, 2012 at 8:05 PM

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 8:00 PM

..good for you. Then you’ll vote accordingly, right?

The War Planner on September 27, 2012 at 8:06 PM

Lanceman on September 27, 2012 at 8:03 PM

Testy. Testy.

I’m a realist; and you can’t win this thing by pretending reality isn’t reality.

lorien1973 on September 27, 2012 at 8:06 PM

No freaking way! And I don’t know one person who is.

I see millions staying home on the obama side.

It will take massive voter fraud on a scale inconceivable.

Lanceman on September 27, 2012 at 8:01 PM

Which pretty much explains most of the Realclearpolitics polls.

Varchild on September 27, 2012 at 8:06 PM

going full eeyore! its lost! dont try to deny reality. mitt blew it with the 47% stuff! blame it on carter grandson!

nathor on September 27, 2012 at 8:00 PM

Explain how? Even people who technically are the 47% ain’t gonna admit it to themselves. Hell most don’t want to be part of that group.

The only ones proud of it are like that b!tch who be braggin’ ’bout her obamaphone and her homies, dawg.

Hell, even half of those won’t put down the crackpipe long enough to fill out a ballot.

Lanceman on September 27, 2012 at 8:06 PM

spineless gop talking head just nodding his head

cmsinaz on September 27, 2012 at 8:04 PM

Who is the GOP “talking head”??..:)

PS..Hello!!..:)

Dire Straits on September 27, 2012 at 8:07 PM

Except, not mentioned, Rasmussen was, by far the most accurate in 04 & 08. They didn’t exist in 00. They seem to be closer in sampling to reality, but that’s the crystal ball question. What’s the proper sampling, once you get past the wording & order of questions, as well as, how the sampling is arrived at, isn’t it?

Update for those following, How to deal with the Obama Enemy media: http://paratisiusa.blogspot.com/2012/09/an-open-letter-to-those-who-should-know.html?spref=tw

God Bless America!

paratisi on September 27, 2012 at 8:07 PM

Is that a clip of Matt Damon in the next Bourne movie?

IlikedAUH2O on September 27, 2012 at 8:07 PM

October 3rd will let all of us know if Mitt Romney is serious about taking on Barackabama.

SouthernGent on September 27, 2012 at 8:04 PM

maybe mitt will make me swallow my eeyorinesh, but I doubt it. mitt does not have what it takes to demolish obama in a debate. only newt could make that feat.

nathor on September 27, 2012 at 8:07 PM

The War Planner on September 27, 2012 at 8:05 PM

Reagan had his debate moment which broke through. Romney needs that to happen.

lorien1973 on September 27, 2012 at 8:08 PM

Is that a clip of Matt Damon in the next Bourne movie?

IlikedAUH2O on September 27, 2012 at 8:07 PM

rofl..Hilarious..:)

Dire Straits on September 27, 2012 at 8:08 PM

I think we’re close enough to the first debate that there’s no point picking through polls until late next week at the earliest. Why worry about this week’s data when there’s a hugely important event that’s bound to affect the race right around the corner?

Isn’t the MSM spotting Barry +5 so they can maintain his edge in polling reports through October?

Even if it’s only a +3,so as to not deflate the black/latino/youth vote, who will sit out if Romney is reported at dead-even or, godforbid, winning in some polls?

budfox on September 27, 2012 at 8:09 PM

going full eeyore! its lost! dont try to deny reality. mitt blew it with the 47% stuff! blame it on carter grandson!

nathor on September 27, 2012 at 8:00 PM

You are delusional to think that a majority of voters are going to give Obama four more years of failure and misery because of what Romney said about the 47%… All the presidential elections are about the incumbent record when he is running for re-election… All the crap about gaffes, speeches, ads, and even debate do not matter at the end… It is about Obama utterly failed record… It is about the economy, the unemplyment, the debt, the deficit, the high prices of gas and food…

At the end of the day the majority of voters are going to ask the simplest but most important question: “Do we want four more years of this misery and failure?”… Their answer would be “No, hell No..”…

mnjg on September 27, 2012 at 8:09 PM

So hope you are right..I so hope..:)

Dire Straits on September 27, 2012 at 8:05 PM

How many obama stickers you be seein’ today, dawg?

I saw a total of ONE today driving 30 miles of I-4 in rush hour.

ONE!

As I stated last night before our daily ‘betrayal’, I can count on one hand how many obama stickers I see every day and still have fingers left over.

Lanceman on September 27, 2012 at 8:10 PM

Not going to lie, I was slowly falling into the dark, bleak depths of Eeyoreism. This article and the Powerline article was something I was hoping for.

STEADY THE BOAT.

cpaulus on September 27, 2012 at 8:10 PM

mitt does not have what it takes to demolish obama in a debate. only newt could make that feat.

nathor on September 27, 2012 at 8:07 PM

You’re very wrong. I remember very well when Mitt demolished Newt in that Florida debate. Newt left the debate stage like a whimpering puppy with his tail before his legs.

bluegill on September 27, 2012 at 8:10 PM

The problem is that they could end up feeling deflated or discouraged, and might just want to tune out the election and not put in the effort to get up and vote (even if they WANT Romney to win).

bluegill on September 27, 2012 at 8:04 PM

..If they want to end up with a nation of mouth-breathing, mirror-fogging moronic proles looking for free stuff, then I cannot help them, pal. I just got out of the stupid-voter-assistance biz.

The War Planner on September 27, 2012 at 8:10 PM

The memories I have of Democrats running for re-election, are of polls which virtually always show them winning right up till the day before election time..

We get revisionist liberals telling us

i REMEMBER 1980.. 1994,.. 2000,.. 2010…

This same media predicted the futility of going against their liberal choice.. and each time was gobsmacked in amazement that the republican won..

We’ll be ok.. and the polls will tighten up the closer we to election day.. as always.

that oh no Carter didn’t lead Reagan,…

mark81150 on September 27, 2012 at 8:11 PM

Polls more than dem+3

Polls with less than 25 independents

polls with more than 55 percent women

polls with less than 45 men

polls with blacks,hispanic,asians in percentages higher than state they are in.

national polls with higher ethnic percentage than ethnic population.

gerrym51 on September 27, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Hahaha, loved the vid! I’m not going to worry over polls anymore then. Let the chips fall where they may!

scalleywag on September 27, 2012 at 8:12 PM

. mitt does not have what it takes to demolish obama in a debate. only newt could make that feat.

nathor on September 27, 2012 at 8:07 PM

Yeah, well, Newt ain’t in it. Get over it. I got over no Sarah. Mittens is the guy right now. Vote and shut up. I don’t like it any more than you do.

Lanceman on September 27, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Here’s some tomato juice for you Eeyores.

obamas-approval-matches-2010-right-before-historic-thumping

Basilsbest on September 27, 2012 at 8:14 PM

Explain how? Even people who technically are the 47% ain’t gonna admit it to themselves. Hell most don’t want to be part of that group.

sure sure, the dems are playing those 47% remarks in ad’s until every one of those 47% knows mitt said those words. even if they dont consider themselfs part of the group, the probably are also poor and dont like to see mitt dismissing half america. I know he does not, but the narrative now is solid in the minds of many voters and thats it. game over!

The only ones proud of it are like that b!tch who be braggin’ ’bout her obamaphone and her homies, dawg.

episodes that only matter for the partisan echo chamber.

Hell, even half of those won’t put down the crackpipe long enough to fill out a ballot.

Lanceman on September 27, 2012 at 8:06 PM

dont delude yourself. the voters that mitt lost are not drug adicts.

nathor on September 27, 2012 at 8:14 PM

Quit worrying. As I’ve always said : obama will not get 40,000,000 votes.

Count it.

Lanceman on September 27, 2012 at 7:51 PM

100,000,000 on welfare and 50,000,000 getting food stamps, plus government employees and other unions? I’s be shocked if he doesn’t get 40,000,000.

bgibbs1000 on September 27, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Lanceman on September 27, 2012 at 8:10 PM

Good point..And a good sign..:)

Dire Straits on September 27, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Just saw another Obama ad slamming Romney on his 47% comment. It was on during the ‘New England Tailgate’ show on Comcast SportsNet. I’m in MA, but the show is also on in NH which I’m sure is who he is targeting.

Wigglesworth on September 27, 2012 at 8:16 PM

New Fox News poll…

Obama +5

Sample is Dems +3

GAME OVER.

gumbyandpokey on September 27, 2012 at 8:16 PM

For those feeling eeyorish, use the numbers as motivation to volunteer, to drag people out to the voting booth, to slash the tires of your Dem family and friends so they CAN’T vote (just kidding…sort of), etc. The bottom line is, if the pollsters are about the makeup of the electorate on Election Day these numbers are right and Romney WILL lose. I for one think wee should do what we can to make sure they’re wrong.

changer1701 on September 27, 2012 at 8:16 PM

So help me, Mitt will win this, if I have to go to Ohio myself and go door to door and register thousands of Republicans! Obama is losing, and that’s all there is to it.

bluegill on September 27, 2012 at 8:17 PM

100,000,000 on welfare and 50,000,000 getting food stamps, plus government employees and other unions? I’s be shocked if he doesn’t get 40,000,000.

bgibbs1000 on September 27, 2012 at 8:15 PM

So one third to one half of the country is on welfare?

Get real, dude. MOST of those people want jobs, not subsistence.

And they know they ain’t gettin’ it with obama.

Lanceman on September 27, 2012 at 8:17 PM

And will you just get lost?

Lanceman on September 27, 2012 at 8:03 PM

I won’t.
I have as much reason to be here as you do. What are you doing here anyways? I mean, you are certainly not making friends and influencing people towards your cause. Quite the contrary.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 8:17 PM

Yeah, well, Newt ain’t in it. Get over it. I got over no Sarah. Mittens is the guy right now. Vote and shut up. I don’t like it any more than you do.

Lanceman on September 27, 2012 at 8:12 PM

all I am saying that mitt cannot do it! he is a play safe kind of debater! it would work if he was draw or ahead, but when he is way behind, his debating skills wont deliver any miracle. maybe mitt will prove me wrong, but i doubt it.

nathor on September 27, 2012 at 8:18 PM

GAME OVER.

gumbyandpokey on September 27, 2012 at 8:16 PM

So go sit in the corner and suck your thumb. Sheesh. It’s hard to believe we win ANYTHING with such defeatism.

changer1701 on September 27, 2012 at 8:18 PM

Reagan had his debate moment which broke through. Romney needs that to happen.

lorien1973 on September 27, 2012 at 8:08 PM

..I am fatalistic about this, Lorien. Either we win or they do. But I ain’t cutting back on any phoning efforts or contributions.

I was watching the debate and came off the couch when Reagan hit it out of the park. BUT STILL we had the alphabets and dead-tree people telling us Carter fought him to a draw. It was not until a couple of days afterwards that the tectonic plate shift began and then — bam! — two days later came the debacle for the Drooler.

Romney will go in and Newter Obama in all three debates with common sense and reason but the Knee-Pad-wearing-tongue-bathers will give The Chicago Jesus the nod on points because he fogged a mirror without a teleprompter. (Think substitute refs and a pass-interference call.)

So, Lorien, ya gotta have it in your heart already. You gotta volunteer, contribute, and vote.

The War Planner on September 27, 2012 at 8:18 PM

Where’s PokingGumby to give his opinion.

RickB on September 27, 2012 at 8:19 PM

I won’t.
I have as much reason to be here as you do. What are you doing here anyways? I mean, you are certainly not making friends and influencing people towards your cause. Quite the contrary.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 8:17 PM

I believe you mean that you have just as much of a right to be here as I do.

You have absolutely no reason to be here as you aren’t gonna change one person’s mind in here. Quite the contrary.

And my ’cause’ is the defeat of obama. Not voting for a pothead from NM or some gaunt, 900 year old gynecologist.

Lanceman on September 27, 2012 at 8:20 PM

You have absolutely no reason to be here as you aren’t gonna change one person’s mind in here. Quite the contrary.

And my ’cause’ is the defeat of obama. Not voting for a pothead from NM or some gaunt, 900 year old gynecologist.

Lanceman on September 27, 2012 at 8:20 PM

+ 1

changer1701 on September 27, 2012 at 8:22 PM

maybe mitt will prove me wrong, but i doubt it.

nathor on September 27, 2012 at 8:18 PM

Irrelevant. As the only ones watching the debates will be political junkies who will already have their minds made up.

And regardless the outcome, the press already has stories to go ‘obama slaughters Romney in debate!’

Lanceman on September 27, 2012 at 8:23 PM

..good for you. Then you’ll vote accordingly, right?

The War Planner on September 27, 2012 at 8:06 PM

Are you better off than 4 years ago is a terrible question to ask. I truly hope that Romney campaign is not thinking like you, otherwise we’re sunk. Truth be told, I’d also have to admit I’m better off than 4 years ago, profits are up, dow jones is up something like 60% since Obozo took office. Yes, I feel sorry for the unemployed, but conservatives aren’t ruled entirely by emotion. And, trying to convincing the moochers not to vote for Obama and stop their goodies is a Herculean task.

This is not 1980, and Romney is NOT Reagan

sauldalinsky on September 27, 2012 at 8:23 PM

New Fox News poll…

Obama +5

Sample is Dems +3

GAME OVER.

gumbyandpokey on September 27, 2012 at 8:16 PM

And yet, Obama’s going to lose anyway.

Dark Star on September 27, 2012 at 8:23 PM

Nope, it wasn’t Karl Rove, I would have remembered that name.

JPeterman on September 27, 2012 at 8:04 PM

and Karl Rove wouldn’t have said that.

gracie on September 27, 2012 at 8:23 PM

“Where’s PokingGumby to give his opinion.”

Already gave it.

New Fox News Poll has Obama +5 with a fair Dem +3 sample.

Add in the new NBC/Wall St Journal/Marist polls of NH, NC and NV with Obama ahead and this is an electoral landslide approaching.

gumbyandpokey on September 27, 2012 at 8:24 PM

We get revisionist liberals telling us, that oh no Carter didn’t lead Reagan,…

I remember 1980.. 1994,.. 2000,.. 2010…

This same media predicted the futility of going against their liberal choice.. and each time was gobsmacked in amazement that the republican won..

We’ll be ok.. and the polls will tighten up the closer we to election day.. as always.

oops.. sorry.. I was nodding off and trying to type at the same time.. meds sometimes cause that.. so If a post looks like I was drinking.. It was probably the drugs…

all legally prescribed of course…

mark81150 on September 27, 2012 at 8:24 PM

New Fox News poll…

Obama +5

Sample is Dems +3

GAME OVER.

gumbyandpokey on September 27, 2012 at 8:16 PM

A lot of undecided vote that will break toward Romney…

Obama only at 48 is good news for Romney…

MGardner on September 27, 2012 at 8:24 PM

I’ve been running this poll of Likely Voters, and it’s my family, co-workers and some neighbors. So far, it’s Romney 95 Obama 5. My goal is to try and convert that Obama 5% before election day.

TarheelBen on September 27, 2012 at 8:25 PM

New Fox News poll…

Obama +5

Sample is Dems +3

GAME OVER.

gumbyandpokey on September 27, 2012 at 8:16 PM

New QStar News Poll Sample is D+.5

965 likely voters surveyed September 26, 2012

Choice of tickets for president/vice president:

Obama/Biden 42.20 percent
Romney/Ryan 55.38 percent
Johnson/Gray 1.99 percent

Game over.

See I can do it too.

bgibbs1000 on September 27, 2012 at 8:25 PM

I believe you mean that you have just as much of a right to be here as I do.

You have absolutely no reason to be here as you aren’t gonna change one person’s mind in here. Quite the contrary.

And my ’cause’ is the defeat of obama. Not voting for a pothead from NM or some gaunt, 900 year old gynecologist.

Lanceman on September 27, 2012 at 8:20 PM

I am here as a guest of those who own the rights to the website Hot Air. it is not a right I have.

I’m not voting for any of those guys either.

I have 6 weeks to determine if Romney is worthy of of voting for. I suppose I could close this window and leave it where it is right now. He is not worthy of a vote at this moment.

The way you treat people here has the effect of pushing away anyone who might eventually come around. You’re just a little boy trying to hold onto a little popularity.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 8:25 PM

Obama only at 48 is good news for Romney…

MGardner on September 27, 2012 at 8:24 PM

I doubt seriously he’s anywhere close to 48%.

You take a look out your window lately?

Lanceman on September 27, 2012 at 8:26 PM

Short answer: No

One of the liberal local TV news show had a survey during their broadcast yesterday in Cincinnati (supposedly the undecided section of Ohio) asking who would win the election. They had a big response with over 9,000 texts and over 75% of them saying Romney would win.

I was encouraged because it is about as scientific of any of the other polls. At the very least, I think it is a good gauge of the enthusiasm level of Romney voters.

HellCat on September 27, 2012 at 8:26 PM

“Where’s PokingGumby to give his opinion.”

Already gave it.

New Fox News Poll has Obama +5 with a fair Dem +3 sample.

Add in the new NBC/Wall St Journal/Marist polls of NH, NC and NV with Obama ahead and this is an electoral landslide approaching.

gumbyandpokey on September 27, 2012 at 8:24 PM

Yeah…today Nevada, tomorrow Utah! Mitt’s sunk! Game Over! /

changer1701 on September 27, 2012 at 8:28 PM

GAME OVER.

gumbyandpokey on September 27, 2012 at 8:16 PM

So there’s no need for you to even go vote on that first Wednesday in November.

TarheelBen on September 27, 2012 at 8:28 PM

I doubt seriously he’s anywhere close to 48%.

You take a look out your window lately?

Lanceman on September 27, 2012 at 8:26 PM

I think Obama will get 46-48% of the vote on November 6th…

MGardner on September 27, 2012 at 8:29 PM

The way you treat people here has the effect of pushing away anyone who might eventually come around. You’re just a little boy trying to hold onto a little popularity.

astonerii on September 27, 2012 at 8:25 PM

LOLWUT?

Heh. Physician, heal thyself.

Look astonerii, you may find three or four compadres in here.

Like that gilled one, most either tolerate you or come right out and call you on your nonsense. You are delusional if you can convince yourself otherwise.

And I said “just as much of a right. A did not say the ‘right was unequivocal.

Lanceman on September 27, 2012 at 8:29 PM

Comment pages: 1 2 3 4