Hot Air Exclusive*: Reince Priebus on polling, the election, and the Benghazi attack

posted at 1:21 pm on September 26, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Earlier today, I spoke with RNC chair Reince Priebus about the prospects for the presidential election in an exclusive* interview for Hot Air.  We not only discussed what the RNC and Team Romney intend to do with their fundraising advantage in the general election, but we also discussed the foreign-policy debacles of Barack Obama, especially over the last two weeks.  “He’s a man of many words,” Priebus tells me, but not “a man of his word.”  Priebus also slammed Obama for “shooting first and aiming later” on the first official narrative of the Benghazi attack, only to be caught fumbling when the claim that the attack was a spontaneous protest that spun out of control later proved false.  Priebus also wondered why Obama’s “unique background,” which he claimed in 2008 would improve relations with Muslim nations, hasn’t prevented our embassies and consulates from being set on fire:

Video streaming by Ustream

Later, we discuss the big cash advantage of the Republicans in the general election, and what it means for the race.  “We can do everything we need to do,” Priebus says, and promises a large GOTV ground effort with plenty of funding — a big change from 2010, when the RNC was largely irrelevant to turnout efforts due to poor fundraising and fiscal management.

The turnout models also came up for discussion, as the polls this week look bleak in Ohio and Florida.  Priebus didn’t want to “whine” about pollsters, but we used Jim Geraghty’s analysis of the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac polls to underscore how ridiculous the turnout assumptions have become.  I asked Priebus whether the D+9 in both Florida and Ohio had a resemblance to what he’s seeing on the ground, and he scoffed.  Those outstrip the 2008 turnout models (especially Florida’s), and Priebus says that “even my friends at the DNC” expect the 2012 turnout models to fall well short of the 2008 election.  The key, Priebus says, is “to win today, to win tomorrow, to win the week, and to win the debates.”

Team Romney also scoffed at the polls today:

Ed Gillespie, a senior advisor to the Romney campaign, delivered some complaints on Wednesday on Fox News’ Fox & Friends, saying that the polls “are not consistent with our polling.”

“I’m struck by a couple of things,” he said. “One, three swing state polls out today and in every single one of them, they have a Democratic voter participation that is higher than the participation in the electorate in 2008. I don’t know anyone on the ground in any of these swing states who believes that there will be a higher Democratic percentage of the electorate in 2012 than there was in 2008.”

He added: “Yet, in every single one of these surveys, there is a higher percentage — which explains, by the way, how it is that the Governor Romney, could be tied or leading with independents in those polls and yet losing the net poll to President Obama. Does not make sense.”

Be sure to watch the whole interview.

 

 

* – Using media definition of “exclusive,” which is that no one else was on the call at the time.


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Bishop?

PolAgnostic on September 26, 2012 at 1:21 PM

The link goes to the CBS horse pucky – not to Jim Geraghty’s analysis of the CBS horse pucky.

PolAgnostic on September 26, 2012 at 1:24 PM

“He’s a man of many words,” Priebus tells me, but not “a man of his word.”

Stealin’ this.

Tim_CA on September 26, 2012 at 1:25 PM

Ed Gillespie, a senior advisor to the Romney campaign, delivered some complaints on Wednesday on Fox News’ Fox & Friends, saying that the polls “are not consistent with our polling.”

These guys had better be telling us the truth.

Doomberg on September 26, 2012 at 1:25 PM

Good catch, Cap’n!!

JohnGalt23 on September 26, 2012 at 1:26 PM

“He’s a man of many words,” Priebus tells me, but not “a man of his word.”

Stealin’ Expropriating this.

Tim_CA on September 26, 2012 at 1:25 PM

Totally…

JohnGalt23 on September 26, 2012 at 1:26 PM

“He’s a man of many words,” Priebus tells me, but not “a man of his word.”

Well put.

Bitter Clinger on September 26, 2012 at 1:27 PM

Folks, it is very clear that after Obama failed in very strategy he tried against Romney, he and his media are now down to their last strategy of demoralizing the Republican/Conservative base by unleashing these insanely biased polls that have no connection to reality what so ever in term of the actual party ID breakdown on Elections Day. This one will fail badly as well…

I have this “Poll adjustment Calculator” that you can download from the link below. You can use it to adjust the Party ID breakdown to reflect a more realistic party ID breakdown on Elections Day and get the more realistic poll results. You can use it to adjust any state or national poll.

http://www.fileconvoy.com/dfl.php?id=g0f9a1c6111e9b12e14951111d0a0649192bfc3

The first section is to enter the results from a media poll, including % of democrats, % of Republicans, % of Independents, enter % Obama, % Romney, % Undecided, % Others for each of these groups ( i.e. demorats, Republicans, Independents)…

The second section is to t adjust the % democrats, % Republicans, % of Independents to match a more realistic elections turnout for each group. The worst case scenario would be democrats + 3% over Republicans but the most probable scenario is % republicans = % democrats on elections day. Make sure that when you do the adjustments for each of these group that they add to 100%.

The third section is the assignment of the % of undecided to each Romney and Obama. So you need to enter the % of undecided for Romney and those for Obama. Historically the undecided go 2:1 for the challenger…

mnjg on September 26, 2012 at 1:27 PM

Media will report polls showing Obama ahead right up to the election.
Then, when Romney wins closely in swing states, media will trumpet charges of fraud, intimidation and disenfranchisement.
Lawsuits will ensue.
Romney will win, but legitimacy of election will be continually questioned.
Obama will move to the Republic of Chicago and set up ‘legitimate government in exile’.

Marcola on September 26, 2012 at 1:27 PM

Battlegroundwatch.com

The only website you need to know for poll analysis.

SouthernGent on September 26, 2012 at 1:28 PM

Is anyone else going to comment?

Ed – why not get together with some of the other conservative web sites, pool resources and have a common web page that show the skew in the polls in the same line as the polls?

The LSM is going to flog the fake polls for the SCOAMF’s administration until the SCOAMF’s concession speech – so it the fake polling data WILL be one of the top stories of 2012.

PolAgnostic on September 26, 2012 at 1:28 PM

These guys had better be telling us the truth.

Doomberg on September 26, 2012 at 1:25 PM

They are telling the truth… The people who are lying are Obama and his media… Obama failed in very strategy he tried against Romney, he and his media are now down to their last strategy of demoralizing the Republican/Conservative base by unleashing these insanely biased polls that have no connection to reality what so ever in term of the actual party ID breakdown on Elections Day. This one will fail badly as well…

Make you own poll and look around you… Do you really see this incredible democrat enthusiasm that not only equal that of 2008 but even exceeds it according to the way the polls are oversampling democrats…

Do you really believe that Obama is going to win Ohio in 2012 by 10 points when he won it in 2008 by 4 points and that he is going to win Florida by 9 points in 2012 when he only won it by 2.5 points in 2008?… Of course you know that it is insane to even think so…

mnjg on September 26, 2012 at 1:30 PM

Those outstrip the 2008 turnout models (especially Florida’s)

Breitbart:
JUICED: PRO-OBAMA POLLS RELY ON RECORD DEM TURNOUT

whatcat on September 26, 2012 at 1:30 PM

Priebus also slammed Obama for “shooting first and aiming later” on the first official narrative of the Benghazi attack, only to be caught fumbling when the claim that the attack was a spontaneous protest that spun out of control later proved false.

IF Reince Priebus were half as intelligent as he is assumed to be, he would be tying Obama actions and statements regarding the 11th Anniversary of 9/11 terrorist attack in Libya to Jimmy Carters failed Operation Eagle Claw.

SWalker on September 26, 2012 at 1:32 PM

Is anyone else going to comment?

Ed – why not get together with some of the other conservative web sites, pool resources and have a common web page that show the skew in the polls in the same line as the polls?

The LSM is going to flog the fake polls for the SCOAMF’s administration until the SCOAMF’s concession speech – so it the fake polling data WILL be one of the top stories of 2012.

PolAgnostic on September 26, 2012 at 1:28 PM

And I have already made a “poll Adjustment Calculator” in an excel sheet program where you can use it to adjust the Party ID breakdown to reflect a more realistic party ID breakdown on Elections Day and get the more realistic poll results. You can use it to adjust any state or national poll.

Link below for download:

http://www.fileconvoy.com/dfl.php?id=g0f9a1c6111e9b12e14951111d0a0649192bfc3

The first section is to enter the results from a media poll, including % of democrats, % of Republicans, % of Independents, enter % Obama, % Romney, % Undecided, % Others for each of these groups ( i.e. demorats, Republicans, Independents)…

The second section is to t adjust the % democrats, % Republicans, % of Independents to match a more realistic elections turnout for each group. The worst case scenario would be democrats + 3% over Republicans but the most probable scenario is % republicans = % democrats on elections day. Make sure that when you do the adjustments for each of these group that they add to 100%.

The third section is the assignment of the % of undecided to each Romney and Obama. So you need to enter the % of undecided for Romney and those for Obama. Historically the undecided go 2:1 for the challenger…

mnjg on September 26, 2012 at 1:32 PM

Why doesn’t Townhall and Hot Air team up with a pollster like Kos does with PPP?

Mark1971 on September 26, 2012 at 1:33 PM

What’s missing in all this analysis is who did not show up in the 2008 election: White voters. Looking back at those results, every voter turnout rate by race (relative to eligible population) was up versus 2004 except the white vote according to Pew Research (April 30, 2009). Blacks were up +4.9%, Hispanics were up +2.7%, Asians were up +2.4%. But the percentage of White voters who showed up at the polls relative to who was eligible dropped -1.1% (Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, May 2010). This has nothing to do with minorities making up more or less of the electorate. This is simply saying from 2004 to 2008 White voter registration (which actually dropped 104k) and actual turnout of White voters (which increased 500k) did not keep up with voting age White population increases.

Within this drop of White voter turnout, over 3x as many men as women comprised those voters staying home in the election. This happened for any number of reasons ranging from a disinterested national party to a disorganized Presidential campaign to a demoralized voting block–all are true. But the bottom line is one of the advantages Barack Obama enjoyed in 2008 was that a meaningful percentage of white voters simply stayed home in 2008. Side note: for anyone who wants to pin the depressed turnout on racism, wouldn’t the opposite have occurred in 2008 if racism really were a motivating factor in the white turnout?

Link

SouthernGent on September 26, 2012 at 1:33 PM

http://www.unskewedpolls.com/

This was worth a look. It takes the data from the various poll companies and runs it thru as if it were modeled by Rassmussen.

Fleuries on September 26, 2012 at 1:34 PM

This is so like the mood of the country during Carter. Everyone was disgruntled, the economy a mess, diplomacy a mess, gas prices through the roof, horrible situations in the Middle East, and no one wanted to see that continue. Yet every single poll showed Carter either winning or tied. The end result was a landlide victory for Reagan. Even my mother – a die hard Democratic precinct committee chairwoman voted for Reagan.

It seems like history is bound to repeat itself, with the exception of my Mom’s vote. Sadly, she passed in 1998 so she is back to voting a straight Democratic ticket.

Lily on September 26, 2012 at 1:34 PM

I’ve said this before, but it bears repeating. If Romney wins independents he will win the election. Remember, Obama won indies by 8% in 2008. There will be more indies this election than in 10 and the dem and Rep numbers will be within 2% of each other.

Ta111 on September 26, 2012 at 1:35 PM

Don’t believe the liberal media.

nazo311 on September 26, 2012 at 1:35 PM

Why doesn’t Townhall and Hot Air team up with a pollster like Kos does with PPP?

Mark1971 on September 26, 2012 at 1:33 PM

why pay somebody for a fluffing like Kos does?

DanMan on September 26, 2012 at 1:37 PM

This was worth a look. It takes the data from the various poll companies and runs it thru as if it were modeled by Rassmussen.

Fleuries on September 26, 2012 at 1:34 PM

That site should scare republicans, more than make them feel better.

lorien1973 on September 26, 2012 at 1:37 PM

Saw Newt Gingrich and Reince Priebus on Greta last night and they sure can talk. Wish we had more of them.

Schadenfreude on September 26, 2012 at 1:37 PM

What a difference btw. this and the former RNC chair!

What a difference between this man and that ‘woman’ at the DNC!

Schadenfreude on September 26, 2012 at 1:38 PM

Isn’t it quite apparent we can no longer trust the media? It’s best, for the sake of your sanity, to just not pay any attention to them between now and the election. In fact, on election day, you may want to tune them out until midnight because they could well call FLorida for Obama at 7 p.m. before the panhandle votes are counted, they’ve pulled that trick before.

bflat879 on September 26, 2012 at 1:40 PM

It seems like history is bound to repeat itself, with the exception of my Mom’s vote. Sadly, she passed in 1998 so she is back to voting a straight Democratic ticket.

Lily on September 26, 2012 at 1:34 PM

My mother-in-law passed 2 years ago. The only Dem she ever voted for was JFK. Until now.

Bitter Clinger on September 26, 2012 at 1:41 PM

Schadenfreude on September 26, 2012 at 1:38 PM

no kidding! Reince has proven to be a very good pick.

DanMan on September 26, 2012 at 1:41 PM

That site should scare republicans, more than make them feel better.

lorien1973 on September 26, 2012 at 1:37 PM

Why?

NapaConservative on September 26, 2012 at 1:41 PM

Priebus Los lame, last night he was coming up with an excuse of its hard to beat an incumbent. Really with 8.1 unemployment, 4 dollar gas food prices the world on fire more on food stamps, more on disability and 380k weekly jobless claims. Wow man what a loser

With Gallup now showing Obama at 50 I know it’s 7 day rolling and ras uses 3 likely voters at 46 to 46 that mitt Romney mem that the GOP sent out about Romney being more electable is being destroyed

Conservative4ev on September 26, 2012 at 1:42 PM

why pay somebody for a fluffing like Kos does?
DanMan on September 26, 2012 at 1:37 PM

You’d think Kos would have learned after the whole embarrassing Kos-Research2000 Scandal.

whatcat on September 26, 2012 at 1:42 PM

“He’s a man of many words,” Priebus tells me, but not “a man of his word.”

Stealin’ Expropriating this.

Tim_CA on September 26, 2012 at 1:25 PM

Totally…

JohnGalt23 on September 26, 2012 at 1:26 PM

Redistributing this.

rbj on September 26, 2012 at 1:43 PM

I just heard this morning of a new Pennsylvania poll showing Bob Casey leading by only 2 points over Tom Smith for the Senate. It is totally impossible to reconcile this with a 10-point Obama lead vs. Romney in PA. Tom Smith is still unknown to most of the electorate, yet he is outpolling Mitt Romney? That doesn’t pass the laugh test.

In PA it is also very important in polling to correctly sample seniors and Catholics, both of which are a larger % of the electorate here vs. other states. The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review poll did that and showed a one-point Obama lead.

rockmom on September 26, 2012 at 1:44 PM

Lets face it Romney is down in every poll besides Ras, his campaign is lame and I want my 100 bucks back I gave him. At least I would of done something more productive with it then give it to a lame campaign which they make lousy commercials and use no ammunition on Obama. Romney doesn’t want this job just like McCain didn’t want it.

Keep falling in line drones

Conservative4ev on September 26, 2012 at 1:45 PM

Anyone missing Michael Steele?

Yeah, me neither.

Joe Mama on September 26, 2012 at 1:46 PM

Keep falling in line drones

Conservative4ev on September 26, 2012 at 1:45 PM

LMAO

Keep spouting nonsense, dope.

Tim_CA on September 26, 2012 at 1:47 PM

Americans like being raped therefore will continue to reelect a guy who likes to rape the economy and the producers.

Conservative4ev on September 26, 2012 at 1:47 PM

“He’s a man of many words,” Priebus tells me, but not “a man of his word.”

Stealin’ this.

Tim_CA on September 26, 2012 at 1:25 PM

Obama says stuff, but it doesn’t mean anything.

Paul-Cincy on September 26, 2012 at 1:47 PM

mnjg on September 26, 2012 at 1:32 PM

.
I appreciate the work you have done on this … but why not take it the next step and turn it into a web site which captures the latest polls and shows something more than unskewedpolls.com?

Poll | Splits | 2008 Splits | 2010 Splits | Poll #’s | Unskewed Poll #’s

Ok, it maybe it is a lot more hard work … but you might also find a market from conservative websites which could provide a direct link to your site …. get some ad space sold on the edges … make a name for yourself and a few bucks along the way …

PolAgnostic on September 26, 2012 at 1:47 PM

Ed, did you ask him why he preferred to let McCaskill win MO rather than support Todd Akin? I’d like to hear the answer to that question.

indyvet on September 26, 2012 at 1:47 PM

Keep falling in line drones
Conservative4ev on September 26, 2012 at 1:45 PM

Troll, troll, troll your boat (back to Kos, that is.).

whatcat on September 26, 2012 at 1:48 PM

Redistributing this.

rbj on September 26, 2012 at 1:43 PM

lol….well played.

Tim_CA on September 26, 2012 at 1:48 PM

It seems like history is bound to repeat itself, with the exception of my Mom’s vote. Sadly, she passed in 1998 so she is back to voting a straight Democratic ticket.

Lily on September 26, 2012 at 1:34 PM

Sorry about your mom, but man that is funny.

msupertas on September 26, 2012 at 1:48 PM

Keep falling in line drones

Conservative4ev on September 26, 2012 at 1:45 PM

LMAO

Keep spouting nonsense, dope.

Tim_CA on September 26, 2012 at 1:47 PM

Hey bro, the news media heavy weighted polling only goes so far, it’s starts getting lame, I see no fire in R and R and let’s face it, it’s worrisome

Conservative4ev on September 26, 2012 at 1:48 PM

Not just biased polls. Straight lies.

Read this:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81618.html

You’ll see Simon says that Paul Ryan calls Romney “Stench” and the Romney staffers call Ryan “Gilligan”. This is “reportedly” and from “anonymous sources”.

Problem is, it’s not true. So what does Ben Smith tweet to try and cover up for his former masters at Politico? That it was “satire”!!! Sure it was! Satire that then went on to talk about his AARP and University of Central Florida events!

Dude lied.

1984 in all its glory! Newspeak rules! Doubleplusgoodthinkful!
I am getting ill. Forty more days of this.

AJsDaddie on September 26, 2012 at 1:49 PM

Ed Gillespie, a senior advisor to the Romney campaign, delivered some complaints on Wednesday on Fox News’ Fox & Friends, saying that the polls “are not consistent with our polling.”

These guys had better be telling us the truth.

Doomberg on September 26, 2012 at 1:25 PM

So, between TeamObama/MSM & “these guys” you’re doubting the ones who aren’t TeamObama/MSM?

Interesting.

You’re world perspective is far, far different from mine.

Dark Star on September 26, 2012 at 1:49 PM

It seems like history is bound to repeat itself, with the exception of my Mom’s vote. Sadly, she passed in 1998 so she is back to voting a straight Democratic ticket.

Lily on September 26, 2012 at 1:34 PM

Sorry to hear about your Mom, but…this was hilariously brilliant! I had to reread the last part a couple of times to make sure I was getting it.

Dack Thrombosis on September 26, 2012 at 1:50 PM

Ed Gillespie, a senior advisor to the Romney campaign, delivered some complaints on Wednesday on Fox News’ Fox & Friends, saying that the polls “are not consistent with our polling.”
These guys had better be telling us the truth.

Doomberg on September 26, 2012 at 1:25 PM

So, between TeamObama/MSM & “these guys” you’re doubting the ones who aren’t TeamObama/MSM?

Interesting.

You’re world perspective is far, far different from mine.

Dark Star on September 26, 2012 at 1:49 PM

I want to believe it and been putting out fires at work and at home that are worried that Romney is blowing it. I am getting tired of trying to point these things out

Conservative4ev on September 26, 2012 at 1:51 PM

So is Romney on the air heavily yet in the swing states?

Mark1971 on September 26, 2012 at 1:52 PM

What is the point of polls if they can’t be trusted, or can they? Who do we believe anymore? What a mess this society and media have become. We need to find another undiscovered land, like America, and start over. I can dream, can’t I?

lea on September 26, 2012 at 1:52 PM

Romney will stick a broom handle in Barfy’s a$$ on Nov 6 and mop the floor with him.

It’s going to be a landslide.

NapaConservative on September 26, 2012 at 1:52 PM

I read that Romney and Netanyahu went to school at Harvard together. Why doesn’t the media talk about that or the republicans play this up. That Israel will have a strong partner.

Conservative4ev on September 26, 2012 at 1:53 PM

Hey bro, the news media heavy weighted polling only goes so far, it’s starts getting lame, I see no fire in R and R and let’s face it, it’s worrisome

Conservative4ev on September 26, 2012 at 1:48 PM

Waaaaaahhhh….the media lies!

Yeah “bro” that’s something new….it’s NEVER happened before.

Grow the frig up already and (assuming you’re not some moron troll) either help, or quit your libtardian whining….we get enough of that crap from the left.

Tim_CA on September 26, 2012 at 1:53 PM

Hey bro, the news media heavy weighted polling only goes so far, it’s starts getting lame, I see no fire in R and R and let’s face it, it’s worrisome

Conservative4ev on September 26, 2012 at 1:48 PM

Waaaaaahhhh….the media lies!

Yeah “bro” that’s something new….it’s NEVER happened before.

Grow the frig up already and (assuming you’re not some moron troll) either help, or quit your libtardian whining….we get enough of that crap from the left.

Tim_CA on September 26, 2012 at 1:53 PM

I’m trying to help financially, but its getting mentally tired

Conservative4ev on September 26, 2012 at 1:54 PM

I,Bark Hussein Dog Eater OBlahBLah,

will not let the 47% who pay no taxes,
be adversely affected by the greed of the 49%,
who pay 90 % of all of the taxes!

ConcealedKerry on September 26, 2012 at 1:54 PM

I’m trying to help financially, but its getting mentally tired

Conservative4ev on September 26, 2012 at 1:54 PM

Then take up butterfly collecting.

Election year politics is a full-contact sport, twinkles.

Tim_CA on September 26, 2012 at 1:56 PM

“He’s a man of many words,” Priebus tells me, but not “a man of his word.”
Stealin’ this.

Tim_CA on September 26, 2012 at 1:25 PM

…already did!…just used it 30 seconds ago on a lush lame lib gushing about… the man of the people…who knew how to talk to the people

KOOLAID2 on September 26, 2012 at 1:57 PM

Priebus can stand remarkably still at the podium and his lips barely move when he speaks. Impressive!

lorien1973 on September 26, 2012 at 1:57 PM

Breaking news from Romney supporters here at HotAir.

As soon as he is officially nominated he’s going to release the Death Star and you’ll see a change in the polls.

He’s waiting till after Labor Day to go all-out, you’ll see.

Late September, oh man he’s going to be ahead in all the swing states.

Don’t pay attention to the polls they are skewed.

After the debates start then you’ll see him moving ahead, he doesn’t want to peak too soon.

Okay……….it’s now just weeks away and WHEN WHEN WHEN is there going to be more than the gop favored poll showing Obama losing?

Everyday, a new outrage to Conservatives…….and no movement in the polls.

HELLLLLLLLLLLLLO MITTT!!!!!!!!

Stop whining about your sacrifice and get off your soft sell and go for the freaking political jugular of Obama.

PappyD61 on September 26, 2012 at 1:58 PM

Sorry about the bold…….ugh

PappyD61 on September 26, 2012 at 1:58 PM

Grow the frig up already and (assuming you’re not some moron troll) either help, or quit your libtardian whining….we get enough of that crap from the left.
Tim_CA on September 26, 2012 at 1:53 PM

I don’t care what shape, form or kind of troll they are – a troll is a troll is a troll. They need to STFU and/or just go away. All it is is just so much useless noise.

whatcat on September 26, 2012 at 1:59 PM

lorien1973 on September 26, 2012 at 1:57 PM

Answer my question, troll.

NapaConservative on September 26, 2012 at 1:59 PM

Ed Gillespie?

Ed Gillespie?

What a tool.

We are just screwed.

PappyD61 on September 26, 2012 at 2:00 PM

Priebus can stand remarkably still at the podium and his lips barely move when he speaks. Impressive!

lorien1973 on September 26, 2012 at 1:57 PM

lol…disney’s super-secret 2nd generation of anamatronics perhaps?

hmmmmmmmm

Tim_CA on September 26, 2012 at 2:00 PM

Sorry about the bold…….ugh

PappyD61 on September 26, 2012 at 1:58 PM

Thanks for posting my same exact feeling

Conservative4ev on September 26, 2012 at 2:00 PM

I’ve said this before, but it bears repeating. If Romney wins independents he will win the election. Remember, Obama won indies by 8% in 2008. There will be more indies this election than in 10 and the dem and Rep numbers will be within 2% of each other.

Ta111 on September 26, 2012 at 1:35 PM

I totally agree… The winner of the independents in polls would win the elections by +/- 2 points from his numbers among independents in the polls…

Now wait for the next wave of polls showing Obama winning among independents… All what they have to do is to have the majority of so called independents in heavy liberal areas and they will get Obama winning them….

mnjg on September 26, 2012 at 2:00 PM

Sorry about the bold…….ugh

PappyD61 on September 26, 2012 at 1:58 PM

Calm down man you’ll hurt yourself..

sandee on September 26, 2012 at 2:01 PM

I’ve said this before, but it bears repeating. If Romney wins independents he will win the election. Remember, Obama won indies by 8% in 2008. There will be more indies this election than in 10 and the dem and Rep numbers will be within 2% of each other.

Ta111 on September 26, 2012 at 1:35 PM

But then Romney wins the independents in most polls. I find it strange how the meme on both sides of the political aisle used to be that no one can win the presidency without the indies, and now since Romney is actually leading with the independents in most polls, the sycophants in the media, the analysts and pundits go on and on and on about how Obama is winning due to some incredible enthusiasm on his side that funnily enough nobody sees….when the heck did he dems become so enthusiastic about this idiot’s re-election, and why, did they suffer an epiphany of sorts that we are not aware of, if anything, the last three weeks showed only what an awfully incompetent and weak leader he is… so, where does this enthusiasm stem from, all of a sudden when the dims have been tepid if not downright apathetic all this while…the country is in an economic mess, we are on the verge of a fiscal disaster, who can be so brain dead to actually have these touted levels of enthusiasm for voting Obama…. it just doesn’t make any sense..and I am aware of the change in demographics since the last elections, and that there are a lot more young voters who in theory at least should pull the lever this year for the first time for a candidate… but there’s no guarantee that they will actually vote at all…

jimver on September 26, 2012 at 2:01 PM

whatcat on September 26, 2012 at 1:42 PM

R2K, that’s it. I couldn’t remember the name. Man that was some fun times watching Markos melt down wasn’t it?

DanMan on September 26, 2012 at 2:01 PM

The third section is the assignment of the % of undecided to each Romney and Obama. So you need to enter the % of undecided for Romney and those for Obama. Historically the undecided go 2:1 for the challenger…

mnjg on September 26, 2012 at 1:32 PM

Ladies and gents, I suggest you avail yourselves of this. mnjg‘s done a magnificent effort and puts a lot of this poll bullsh*t into perspective. Do NOT go bgibbs1000-ian on us! Stick to your guns; be part of the ground game Priebus talks about and phone bank at Romney’s site for free and work off your frustrations by talking to brother and sister voters in swing states.

It’s very liberating!

The War Planner on September 26, 2012 at 2:02 PM

Might this backfire? If apathetic Obama voters think he has it in the bag, they might not show up to vote.

Fallon on September 26, 2012 at 2:03 PM

* – Using media definition of “exclusive,” which is that no one else was on the call at the time.

Um… I don’t think that counts as exclusive. You might as well redefine it to mean, “Not printed elsewhere word-for-word.”

The Rogue Tomato on September 26, 2012 at 2:05 PM

But then Romney wins the independents in most polls. I find it strange how the meme on both sides of the political aisle used to be that no one can win the presidency without the indies, and now since Romney is actually leading with the independents in most polls, the sycophants in the media, the analysts and pundits go on and on and on about how Obama is winning due to some incredible enthusiasm on his side that funnily enough nobody sees….when the heck did he dems become so enthusiastic about this idiot’s re-election, and why, did they suffer an epiphany of sorts that we are not aware of, if anything, the last three weeks showed only what an awfully incompetent and weak leader he is… so, where does this enthusiasm stem from, all of a sudden when the dims have been tepid if not downright apathetic all this while…the country is in an economic mess, we are on the verge of a fiscal disaster, who can be so brain dead to actually have these touted levels of enthusiasm for voting Obama…. it just doesn’t make any sense..and I am aware of the change in demographics since the last elections, and that there are a lot more young voters who in theory at least should pull the lever this year for the first time for a candidate… but there’s no guarantee that they will actually vote at all…

jimver on September 26, 2012 at 2:01 PM

Romney needs to come out like a shrewd politician on Tuesday and make Obama look like an ass on tv. He needs to do what he did to Newt. If he plays this softy crap it’s over

Conservative4ev on September 26, 2012 at 2:05 PM

R2K, that’s it. I couldn’t remember the name. Man that was some fun times watching Markos melt down wasn’t it?
DanMan on September 26, 2012 at 2:01 PM

Even better, he had written an anti-Republican book based on R2K polling and had take a do-over on the book, heh. But, yeah, it was break out the popcorn time!

whatcat on September 26, 2012 at 2:05 PM

I appreciate the work you have done on this … but why not take it the next step and turn it into a web site which captures the latest polls and shows something more than unskewedpolls.com?

Poll | Splits | 2008 Splits | 2010 Splits | Poll #’s | Unskewed Poll #’s

Ok, it maybe it is a lot more hard work … but you might also find a market from conservative websites which could provide a direct link to your site …. get some ad space sold on the edges … make a name for yourself and a few bucks along the way …

PolAgnostic on September 26, 2012 at 1:47 PM

Thank you very much… I would rather not make any money here and the website would not cost a lot of money anyway… However I am not certain that it would attract a lot of people… On the other hand if Hot Air can have a subsection where they can publish in an “interactive way” my program of “Poll adjustment” or something similar to that I am sure it would have a lot more of hits….

mnjg on September 26, 2012 at 2:06 PM

KOOLAID2 on September 26, 2012 at 1:57 PM

It works great in phone conversations too. People eat it up.

Tim_CA on September 26, 2012 at 2:06 PM

Lily on September 26, 2012 at 1:34 PM

I’m with msupertas & Dack Thrombosis: I don’t care who you are, that sh1t was funny!

With due respect to your mom, of course.

pain train on September 26, 2012 at 2:06 PM

This will have the opposite effect from what they intended, and the MSM doesn’t get it at all.

As an ex-Democrat, I’m well aware of how “default Liberals” (as Rush so accurately calls them) think, since I used to be one. They go for the “safety in numbers” mentality. A well informed Conservative, who is confident in the logic of their beliefs, will not be afraid to debate a whole room full of Liberals all by themselves.

On the other hand, since the MSM, academia, and the entertainment industry are all controlled by Liberals, who shove their Liberal talking points down the country’s throats every day, most Democrats feel no need to be up on the issues and spend time contemplating why they take the positions they take. And if a Conservative engages them in a debate that they can’t win, they’ll just rationalize it by telling the Conservative “I don’t know enough about the issues to go toe to toe with you, but there are plenty of informed Liberals who could wipe the floor with you”.

I’ll bet that a lot of Liberals are disappointed with Obama, and disheartened by the fact that the best they can say about him is “he did the best he could with the mess he was handed”. Most of the people who will vote for him will do so out of party loyalty, not because they think he’s done a bang up job in his first term.

So the same way that these default Liberals will always leave it to some smarter Liberal to debate Conservatives, a lot of them will probably leave it to the more enthusiastic Liberals to actually go out and vote for Obama this time around, especially if the MSM is telling them that Obama is a lock to win.

ardenenoch on September 26, 2012 at 2:07 PM

Lets face it Romney is down in every poll besides Ras, his campaign is lame and I want my 100 bucks back I gave him. At least I would of done something more productive with it then give it to a lame campaign which they make lousy commercials and use no ammunition on Obama. Romney doesn’t want this job just like McCain didn’t want it.

Keep falling in line drones

Conservative4ev on September 26, 2012 at 1:45 PM

I’m gonna take a wild guess here. I bet at work the boss never calls on you to lead any important projects because he is just so tired of hearing you whine every time something is not working your way. If something isn’t perfect he is put off by your beta male whining and hand wringing. I don’t know how this election is going to turn out but I am not going to fall into the trap of bashing Romney when he is up against the most corrupt and amoral individual that has held the office of President. In fact, I am not even sure you’re the conservative that your moniker suggests.

DaveDief on September 26, 2012 at 2:07 PM

Anyone missing Michael Steele?

Yeah, me neither.

Joe Mama on September 26, 2012 at 1:46 PM

Yes. The DNC.

thatsafactjack on September 26, 2012 at 2:08 PM

Ladies and gents, I suggest you avail yourselves of this. mnjg‘s done a magnificent effort and puts a lot of this poll bullsh*t into perspective. Do NOT go bgibbs1000-ian on us! Stick to your guns; be part of the ground game Priebus talks about and phone bank at Romney’s site for free and work off your frustrations by talking to brother and sister voters in swing states.

It’s very liberating!

The War Planner on September 26, 2012 at 2:02 PM

You know you have good points here. The problem I have is this election should not be close. Romney should have it locked up. But Romney’s inept campaign has made it close. Trying to wish it away or make excuses doesn’t change that. I’ll say it again Romney needs to get busy winning and stop with the continued nice guy agreeable tone towards Obama, it’s not working. Repeat it’s not working.

bgibbs1000 on September 26, 2012 at 2:11 PM

Lol! It makes perfect sense. The Obama Enemy media is in a tizzy! The Water carriers had to be prescribed Anti-psychotic meds just to stave off Mass Suicides & the meds aren’t working!They are strong enough to take down a “Mad Charging Bull African Elephant” and yet more of these sycophants are being placed on “Suicide Watch” everyday! With Gallup confirming that no one trusts the Obama Enemy media, Newt is right that Republicans can & must go on the offensive to beat back these hack clowns. Here’s a simple formula for dealing with the enemy media: http://paratisiusa.blogspot.com/2012/09/an-open-letter-to-those-who-should-know.html?spref=tw

God Bless America!

paratisi on September 26, 2012 at 2:11 PM

I’ve said this before, but it bears repeating. If Romney wins independents he will win the election. Remember, Obama won indies by 8% in 2008. There will be more indies this election than in 10 and the dem and Rep numbers will be within 2% of each other.
Ta111 on September 26, 2012 at 1:35 PM

Yup, the indies and the undecideds (who go 2/3 for the challenger) are key. Even if the media polls weren’t Dem-stacked and it really were 47/47 right now, that’s your difference – advantage Romney – right there.

whatcat on September 26, 2012 at 2:11 PM

Romney needs to come out like a shrewd politician on Tuesday and make Obama look like an ass on tv.

He needs to do what he did to Newt.

If he plays this softy crap it’s over

Conservative4ev on September 26, 2012 at 2:05 PM

There we go….constructive criticism.

Now doesn’t that feel better than the defeatist horsesh!t you were spouting before?

Maybe there’s hope for you.

(Oh and btw….Romney wins…by a comfortable margin…we’ve seen all of this before)

Tim_CA on September 26, 2012 at 2:11 PM

The War Planner on September 26, 2012 at 2:02 PM

Thank you, War Planner! Its nice to see someone step up to lead and put the hand wringing into perspective and offer some motivation.

thatsafactjack on September 26, 2012 at 2:13 PM

Conservative4ev on September 26, 2012 at 2:05 PM

I totally agree…am a bit skeptical at this point though…. the media will declare obama the winner of the debates anyways and we all know that the electorate in this country is dumb enough and has very little discernment to actually think for themselves……

jimver on September 26, 2012 at 2:13 PM

The LSM is going to flog the fake polls for the SCOAMF’s administration until the SCOAMF’s concession speech – so it the fake polling data WILL be one of the top stories of 2012.

PolAgnostic on September 26, 2012 at 1:28 PM

What does “SCOAMF” stand for?

Old Fritz on September 26, 2012 at 2:14 PM

The War Planner on September 26, 2012 at 2:02 PM

Thank you very much for the nice words :)

mnjg on September 26, 2012 at 2:15 PM

I’m telling you all that these polls are just as much, if not more so, about keeping the democrat base support from having the bottom drop out as it is to keep republicans away from voting.

The leftist agenda, Obama, and democrat party are very close to a tipping point of becoming irrelevant. Most people think that the policies of the leftists is failing but keep some support because they think that others still believe. When those people determine that all the other people thing the same thing, it’s game over. This is how dictators fall, how unsustainable leftist systems fall. It isn’t slow, it happens all at once.

jukin3 on September 26, 2012 at 2:16 PM

Might this backfire? If apathetic Obama voters think he has it in the bag, they might not show up to vote.
Fallon on September 26, 2012 at 2:03 PM

True. The media polling is rigged so they can attempt to discourage Romney voters, but it also increases the danger of the equal-opposite effect for Obama.

whatcat on September 26, 2012 at 2:17 PM

You know you have good points here. The problem I have is this election should not be close. Romney should have it locked up. But Romney’s inept campaign has made it close. Trying to wish it away or make excuses doesn’t change that. I’ll say it again Romney needs to get busy winning and stop with the continued nice guy agreeable tone towards Obama, it’s not working. Repeat it’s not working.

bgibbs1000 on September 26, 2012 at 2:11 PM

Did Reagan lock up his campaign in 1980 in September or even October of that year? No he did not…

mnjg on September 26, 2012 at 2:17 PM

I asked Priebus whether the D+9 in both Florida and Ohio had a resemblance to what he’s seeing on the ground, and he scoffed.

According to the Florida Secretary of State, voter registration in Florida is 40% Democrat, 36% Republican, and 24% “minor” parties or “other”. If all voters turned out in proportion to their registration, Romney would need to win 59% of Indies to win Florida.

If the fraction of registered Republicans who actually voted was 10% higher than that of registered Democrats, the partisan turnout would be even, and Romney would only need a simple majority of Indies to win Florida.

In 2008, Obama got a total of 4,282,074 votes in Florida to 4,085,624 votes for McCain. There are now 4.17 million registered Republicans and 4.63 million registered Democrats in Florida. This means that Obama didn’t get votes from all registered Democrats in 2008, his banner year. If Romney can get a higher turnout among Republicans than Obama does among Democcrats, and then split or win the Indies, he can win Florida.

Steve Z on September 26, 2012 at 2:18 PM

So, between TeamObama/MSM & “these guys” you’re doubting the ones who aren’t TeamObama/MSM?

Interesting.

You’re world perspective is far, far different from mine.

Dark Star on September 26, 2012 at 1:49 PM

What’s being alleged here is that EVERY SINGLE POLLING FIRM – excepting Rasmussen – are ALL secretly controlled by liberals, and they are ALL working hand in hand with the administration to lie about Obama’s performance. Not just one or two of them – a PPP here and an NYT there – ALL of them.

I repeat: These guys had better be telling us the truth, rather than spinning up conspiracy theories to quiet conservative criticism of the Romney campaign.

Doomberg on September 26, 2012 at 2:19 PM

I’m telling you all that these polls are just as much, if not more so, about keeping the democrat base support from having the bottom drop out as it is to keep republicans away from voting.

jukin3 on September 26, 2012 at 2:16 PM

A this point I think this is the only viable explanation…

jimver on September 26, 2012 at 2:19 PM

What does “SCOAMF” stand for?

Old Fritz on September 26, 2012 at 2:14 PM

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=SCOAMF

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=scoamf

Difficultas_Est_Imperium on September 26, 2012 at 2:25 PM

I think it is good idea to mentally prepare ourselves for the debates. I personally think Mitt will be terrific and inspiring.

1. The Pravda Media and some republican pundits will declare Obama the winner. Alternatively, they will say Mitt is a meany. Either way, Mitt will be fact checked to death with a complete pass on Obama’s lies

2. Other pundits will say Mitt could have done better. There will be a lot of ‘could, woulda, shoulda’. Even if Mitt is judged by all to have ‘won’ all three debates, the polls will not reflect that

3. No Obama voters will be swayed to Mitt by the debate

4. IMO, the debates are aimed at independents and uncommitteds

5. The outcome may or may not make you happy. Either way, hand-wringing will ensue from our side.

6. The trolls will be out in full force during and after

All in all, the actual winner of these debates will be seen on election day.

Mitsouko on September 26, 2012 at 2:27 PM

I’m telling you all that these polls are just as much, if not more so, about keeping the democrat base support from having the bottom drop out as it is to keep republicans away from voting.

jukin3 on September 26, 2012 at 2:16 PM

A this point I think this is the only viable explanation…

jimver on September 26, 2012 at 2:19 PM

..there’s a fine line they walk though. You know this pissses us off over here and makes us more determined than ever to prove those bastages wrong. At the same time, it’s a powerful sedative to those who favor Obama but are trying to work up the energy to do so.

Too much of this “Obama up by 10″ in OIHO and these folks figure they are not needed so they can nap right through the 6th.

The War Planner on September 26, 2012 at 2:27 PM

What’s being alleged here is that EVERY SINGLE POLLING FIRM TV STATION – excepting Rasmussen Fox – are ALL secretly controlled by liberals, and they are ALL working hand in hand with the administration to lie about Obama’s performance. Not just one or two of them – a PPP CNN here and an NYT MSNBC there – ALL of them.

FIFY.

AJsDaddie on September 26, 2012 at 2:29 PM

Battlegroundwatch.com

The only website you need to know for poll analysis.

SouthernGent on September 26, 2012 at 1:28 PM

Actually a pretty sober view of the polling situation.

The article on Ohio was pretty insightful. I had no idea 1/8 jobs in Ohio were related to auto industry. In retrospect I wonder if Romney regrets the WSJ Op-Ed….

Was it worth Ohio and Michigan ….

NextGen on September 26, 2012 at 2:29 PM

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