WaPo polls: Obama up in OH, FL

posted at 10:41 am on September 25, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

The bad news: new Washington Post polls of likely voters in Ohio and Florida show Barack Obama leading both key swing states, and outside the margin of error in Ohio.  The good news?  Er … at some point, the replacement officials will get the boot from the NFL.  No, seriously, the polls don’t have a lot of good news, but the sample skew in Ohio might be a somewhat mitigating factor:

President Obama has grabbed a significant lead over Mitt Romney in Ohio and holds a slender edge in Florida, according to two new polls by the Washington Post that indicate there are fresh hurdles in the way of the Republican nominee’s best route to victory in the Electoral College.

Among likely voters, Obama is ahead of Romney in Ohio by 52 to 44 percent. In Florida, the president is up 51 to 47 percent, a numerical but not statistically significant edge. Among all registered Florida voters, Obama is up nine percentage points.

All right, let’s look at the samples, bearing in mind my analysis from earlier today.  Among likely voters in the Ohio sample, the D/R/I is 37/30/30.  That’s a far cry from the midterm 36/37/28 — but it’s not that far off from 2008′s 39/31/30.  The question, then, is what kind of turnout should we expect in Ohio — one that looks more like 2008 or 2010?  Before you answer that, remember that the Republicans who won that midterm election in Ohio have struggled to maintain their momentum, although John Kasich appears to be rebounding a bit now.

Let’s look at a couple of other demos in Ohio.  Romney actually has a one-point edge over Obama among likely-voter independents, 47/46.  In 2008, Obama won them by eight points, 52/44, on his way to winning the state by five.   However, Obama wins women by seventeen points while losing men by 1 for a +16 gender gap.  In 2008, that was just +11 (+3 men, +8 women).  If there’s a difference, it’s in that gender gap rather than independents.

Next, let’s look at Florida, where Obama only has a 4-point lead.  The likely-voter D/R/I has a D+1 edge, 33/32/31.  That’s right in the ballpark for Florida, which had a 37/34/29 in 2008 and 36/36/29 in 2010.  Unfortunately, their link to the cross-tab functions isn’t working so it’s impossible to drill down further than this, but it shows that Romney needs to pick up his game in the Sunshine State, too.

Update: I had a typo in the 2010 exit polling in Ohio; the independent vote was 28%, not 38%.


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Yes, and the polls in districts everywhere accurately predicted a Republican blow-out in 2010. Maybe 2014 will be another great year for the GOP. I hope so anyway. 2012 has been awfully depressing.

casuist on September 25, 2012 at 12:22 PM

So much that the Obama admin didnt even have Boehner’s number.

brut4ce on September 25, 2012 at 12:47 PM

At this point, I just want this over. This daily bickering with liberals is getting tiresome.

One of 2 things is likely:

1. Either the liberal trolls and pollsters (also trolls, but in a much more disgusting way) are correct, and this country has become more liberal over 4 years, in which case Obama wins by 5-6 and we are on the way to becoming Cuba, or

2. The Republicans are correct that the pollsters are simply making up polls to reflect their ideological preferences, and this election will be about 35/35/30, in which cases Romney wins by 3-4, and gets over 300 electoral votes.

There really is no other option. I think that number 2 is likely for a number of reasons, but would it surprise me if number 1 happens? No. After 50 years of liberal policies to dillute the electorate, we might have reached the point of no return.

milcus on September 25, 2012 at 12:47 PM

In the general, yeah. But I was a Santorum supporter in the primary.

gumbyandpokey on September 25, 2012 at 11:34 AM
Forget politics and ideology for a second the fact that you can lie in such a brazen way reveals your true despicable character as a human…

mnjg on September 25, 2012 at 11:37 AM

OK, can one person go back through the archives of Hot Air and find one post during primary season that would prove Gumby was supporting Santorum. He’s such a frequent poster now, so you’d figure his enthusiasm would have translated into many pro-Santorum posts back on December, January and February, right?

Can anybody find one post that would exonerate Gumby from the overwhelming suspicion that he is a bleeping two-faced liar?

Right Mover on September 25, 2012 at 12:48 PM

gumbyandpokey on September 25, 2012 at 12:45 PM

NY????what???desperate how dumb r u?

gracie on September 25, 2012 at 12:48 PM

Yeah, it is, LMFAO!!!!

gumbyandpokey on September 25, 2012 at 11:55 AM

The economy is getting better and people’s confidence in it is rising? Is that what you’re trying to insist?

Can you explain, then, why upwards of 150,000 people a month are just dropping out of the work force and abandoning all precepts of seeking employment anymore? Why so many employable people are just giving up?

I speak to Realtors every week as part of my job, and real estate agents are desperate, because nobody wants to commit to buying a home, so fearful are they of losing their jobs and being unable to make monthly mortgage payments.

Right Mover on September 25, 2012 at 12:55 PM

kingsjester on September 25, 2012 at 11:25 AM

Looks like the Reagan/Carter polling facts need to be posted AGAIN….

http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/debunking-a-myth-reagan-was-leading-carter-long-before-that-final-october-debate/

gumbyandpokey on September 25, 2012 at 11:29 AM

*sigh*

That hoary scatter plot link again. I am guessing you have a comprehension problem, don;t you. I counsel for your re-reading K.J.’s comment. He alluded to something that you seem to be missing: he was an adult voter back then and ALSO Memphis State. I can add to this by saying ALL THE NEWS we received was delivered on three or four channels and at our doorstep.

We operated in a vacuum and that vacuum had the unceasing mantra of Carter being ahead of the wigged-out cowboy from California. When I went into the voting booth, I have no idea who was going to win. I got home at 1730 PST and — total shock — the drooler had conceded.

The War Planner on September 25, 2012 at 12:56 PM

Can anybody find one post that would exonerate Gumby from the overwhelming suspicion that he is a bleeping two-faced liar?

who cares. he’s either going to vote for Obama or if he’s a republican and wants Obama out he’ll vote for Romney

if he does not vote thats his problem.

we have one nominee. we either support him or not.

were not getting another one

gerrym51 on September 25, 2012 at 12:57 PM

Romney prob in nutshell: Staten Island #NY11 district filled w working-class Catholics: Obama 51, Romney 47. McCain carried CD 51-48% in 08.

i care about swing states.

gerrym51 on September 25, 2012 at 12:59 PM

Yeah, WaPo, now there’s a poll you can trust.

Exit question: When did they find the time to conduct their poll; seeing as they spend most of their time leg-humping Barry.

GarandFan on September 25, 2012 at 12:59 PM

The majority of criticism of the polls from the right though is complete denial of their validity. At any time. Which is plain ridiculous.

lester on September 25, 2012 at 12:20 PM

.
And besides, why would the left leaning Media take a chance and promote a Democrat Party candidate and run the risk of having their honesty and impartiality called into question?

FlaMurph on September 25, 2012 at 1:01 PM

Could this be true? Could the American people be willingly voting for four more years of this? It seems out of the realm of possibility, surreal, after all this country has been through over the past four years.

WordsMatter on September 25, 2012 at 1:02 PM

Any Ohio commenters?

Ironic that Romney is trailing in both WI and OH – when both states’ economies are improving in spite of Obama policies, not because of them.

Romney is going to win FL.

matthew8787 on September 25, 2012 at 11:30 AM


Yes, and as I have pointed out before, Ohio will go to Romney.

As I pointed out yesterday afternoon, the SCOAMF’s internal polling has to be horrendous given the number of Axel-trolls being devoted to EACH and EVERY polling post on Hot Air.

As I pointed out last night, a lot of the conservatives in Ohio are INTENTIONALLY not participating in any of the endless stream of polling calls (4 to 6 per day) which are calling UNLISTED phone numbers and asking for individuals listed in 2010 Census data by NAME.

Would YOU want YOUR political opinions recorded by an ANONYMOUS stranger or system for future reference?

There is another reason you are seeing SO MANY Axel-trolls on these threads …

… the SCOAMF’s voter fraud team known as ACORN has been de-nutted this time around. The voter ID laws are going to make it MUCH harder to commit voter fraud this time around and the penalties are no longer a slap on the wrist. Strangely enough, this is depressing voter enthusiasm on the Democratic side of the ledger.

One last thing, whatever their motivations, the Hot Air male staff is the largest, whiniest set of RINO Eeyores on the internet.

D+7 on any poll should earn it an automatic trip to the Recycle Bin …. but Ed and AP raise it up on high and tinkle all over themselves in the process.

PolAgnostic on September 25, 2012 at 1:04 PM

If the majority of people are that dumb, they deserve to suffer. Unfortunately, those of us with a working brain will pay for their stupidity.

Hard Right on September 25, 2012 at 1:05 PM

Carter had at least a 7 or 8 point lead on Reagan about 9 days before the election .That,s a fact.Here,s another fact .No incumbent pres.below 50% at this time of year before a election with no major third party candidate running has ever won reelection.

logman1 on September 25, 2012 at 1:07 PM

These trolls sure have their painties all twisted up.

Panic mode on display from team hopey/changy.

I especially like the trolls who try to pass themselves off as “republican/conservative”, they really are something to behold.

November 6th, 2012 – heads exploding in obomanation!

D-fusit on September 25, 2012 at 1:08 PM

In the general, yeah. But I was a Santorum supporter in the primary.

gumbyandpokey on September 25, 2012 at 11:34 AM
Forget politics and ideology for a second the fact that you can lie in such a brazen way reveals your true despicable character as a human…

mnjg on September 25, 2012 at 11:37 AM

…sound like a Santy supporter to you mnjg ?

KOOLAID2 on September 25, 2012 at 1:09 PM

Being from Ohio (Columbus actually), I can say that among the people I meet that it is entirely believable that Obama is probably up by a couple points right now. Its sad really, lots of people decide how to vote based on who is cooler, and they know nothing about the details and nuances of their policy positions. I corrected a coworker the other day who thought based on an attack ad that Romney was going to outlaw all birth control. Its amazing how gullible people can be with information that seems to fit their polarized worldview.

OhioBuckeye7 on September 25, 2012 at 1:20 PM

Carter had at least a 7 or 8 point lead on Reagan about 9 days before the election .That,s a fact.Here,s another fact .No incumbent pres.below 50% at this time of year before a election with no major third party candidate running has ever won reelection.

logman1 on September 25, 2012 at 1:07 PM

There are a lot of facts that work against the president, which the media would be shouting from the rooftops if Obama was a Republican:

1. No President has ever won re-election with unemployment over 7%.

2. No incumbent president in the last 80 years has won re-election with a smaller percentage than his initial election.

3. Only 1 Democratic president in the last 60 years has won re-election.

So, we should believe that Obama will buck history, win with unemployment over 8% and, and be the first president to win with a smaller percentage than his initial vote? There is no way that Obama should win. And if he does, this country doesn’t need voter id laws, it needs basic iq tests for voting.

milcus on September 25, 2012 at 1:26 PM

kingsjester on September 25, 2012 at 11:25 AM”

Looks like the Reagan/Carter polling facts need to be posted AGAIN….

http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/debunking-a-myth-reagan-was-leading-carter-long-before-that-final-october-debate/

gumbyandpokey on September 25, 2012 at 11:29 AM

And here is the Gallap poll that shows Carter ahead of Reagan by eight points in late October:

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/09/flashback-gallup-had-carter-up-4-points-over-ronald-reagan-in-september-1980

itsspideyman on September 25, 2012 at 1:33 PM

Heres all you need to know about the media’s use of the “Poll Card

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/obama-romney-nascar-poll-140401668–politics.html

Even nascar loves Ocommie 49-42.

Zogby.

Yes even Nascar.

Damn you , BIG MEDIA !!

FlaMurph on September 25, 2012 at 1:35 PM

2. No incumbent president in the last 80 years has won re-election with a smaller percentage than his initial election.

Why do you think Romney will beat McCain’s 46%? It’s not a given.

buridan on September 25, 2012 at 1:49 PM

Damn you , BIG MEDIA !!

FlaMurph on September 25, 2012 at 1:35 PM

You left out any mention this was an ONLINE poll …

… and therefore as impartial as a press release by David Axelrod.

PolAgnostic on September 25, 2012 at 2:00 PM

Romney prob in nutshell: Staten Island #NY11 district filled w working-class Catholics: Obama 51, Romney 47. McCain carried CD 51-48% in 08.

gumbyandpokey

So, Romney’s problem is he isn’t a democrat? It’s NY. If his biggest problem is not being able to win some meaningless district in a state he has no chance to win, he’s in pretty good shape.

Wonder if Preibus’ job is in jeopardy if the election goes south?

gumbyandpokey

If Obama wins, everybody’s job is in jeopardy.

xblade on September 25, 2012 at 2:04 PM

Funny, how here in Ohio, of 6 people I work with, only 33% are voting for Obama. I don’t know where they get these polls.

sadatoni on September 25, 2012 at 2:20 PM

Carter had at least a 7 or 8 point lead on Reagan about 9 days before the election .That,s a fact.Here,s another fact .No incumbent pres.below 50% at this time of year before a election with no major third party candidate running has ever won reelection.

logman1 on September 25, 2012 at 1:07 PM

Reagan isn’t on the ballot, Willard is. ‘nough said.

wraithby on September 25, 2012 at 2:27 PM

Panic mode on display from team hopey/changy.

I especially like the trolls who try to pass themselves off as “republican/conservative”, they really are something to behold.

November 6th, 2012 – heads exploding in obomanation!

D-fusit on September 25, 2012 at 1:08 PM

Yes.

They are in such panic that the President disses World Leaders to go on The View.

Of course in your mind. Any one that is not an Establishment Republican is a “troll”.

No actual reason allowed by you. You are a Troll if you point out how badly Romney is losing by not presenting an actual plan to replace Obama Care. Have to elect Romney to see the Replacement Plan. That did not work well for Poloski.

Romney is very very weak. He will not stand up to the Press even though the Press is now 100% unprofessional in they abject worship of Obama. He either stands up for himself or he will lose.

Steveangell on September 25, 2012 at 2:30 PM

Romney prob in nutshell: Staten Island #NY11 district filled w working-class Catholics: Obama 51, Romney 47. McCain carried CD 51-48% in 08.

gumbyandpokey

So, Romney’s problem is he isn’t a democrat? It’s NY. If his biggest problem is not being able to win some meaningless district in a state he has no chance to win, he’s in pretty good shape.

The obvious point. Romney is doing just as poorly as McCain. McCain lost.

Steveangell on September 25, 2012 at 2:33 PM

The country is cooked after November 6. The only thing to look forward to is the purge of RINOs and sellouts on socialand cultural issues. It is time to expose those wets in our midst who have helped fuel the Leftist media, academic and Hollywood hegemony.

kingsmill on September 25, 2012 at 2:37 PM

The country is cooked after November 6. The only thing to look forward to is the purge of RINOs and sellouts on socialand cultural issues. It is time to expose those wets in our midst who have helped fuel the Leftist media, academic and Hollywood hegemony.

kingsmill on September 25, 2012 at 2:37 PM

We are in very deep trouble for sure.

If you do not believe in GOD we are over.

I do I believe GOD will save us. But Mitt Romney is an Anti Christ as is Obama. Hopefully when Obama is reelected people will wake up and insist on Obama’s impeachment.

Steveangell on September 25, 2012 at 2:40 PM

But Mitt Romney is an Anti Christ as is Obama

my God man. Get help.

gracie on September 25, 2012 at 2:47 PM

That hoary scatter plot link again. I am guessing you have a comprehension problem, don;t you. I counsel for your re-reading K.J.’s comment. He alluded to something that you seem to be missing: he was an adult voter back then and ALSO Memphis State. I can add to this by saying ALL THE NEWS we received was delivered on three or four channels and at our doorstep.

We operated in a vacuum and that vacuum had the unceasing mantra of Carter being ahead of the wigged-out cowboy from California. When I went into the voting booth, I have no idea who was going to win. I got home at 1730 PST and — total shock — the drooler had conceded.

The War Planner on September 25, 2012 at 12:56 PM

Not sure what polls are being included in that graph, or if they’re being weighted differently than the original (this study from CBS seems to play with weights to suggest Reagan was never more than 45-42 down in October and could be the basis for the scatter plot), but here’s the Gallup results going back to 1936. In October 1980, Gallup had it 47-39-9 in favor of Carter, and it didn’t show a Reagan lead until just before the election (go figure) in November at 47-44 Reagan.

right of the dial on September 25, 2012 at 3:08 PM

The election is like 5 weeks away, and Romney hasn’t made a dent in Obama’s lead, which has been slim but steady.

The debates could be a game changer, but the chances of that changing Romney’s fortune is slim. Both candidates are pretty much out of conventions or gimmicks that could give them a bounce.

Obama is a celebrity politician, just like Arnold was. He’s a personally likeable candidate. But he’ll be more or less lame duck by late 2014. The dem candidate for 2014 won’t be quite the rock stat Obama was, and Obamacare is anything less than a bona fide success, the GOP have all the ammunition they’ll need.

The presidential election isn’t over, but it’s fair to predict an (less resounding) Obama victory. The fight goes on. People like him, but not all of his policies.

Mad Kimchi on September 25, 2012 at 3:10 PM


No actual reason allowed by you. You are a Troll if you point out how badly Romney is losing by not presenting an actual plan to replace Obama Care. Have to elect Romney to see the Replacement Plan. That did not work well for Poloski.

8 points. Romney is down by 8 in the critical state of Oh-hi-O.

White working class voters and seniors are killing Romntard. Just killing him. Wasn’t Romntard supposed to create a whole new GOP coalition or something? He’d better get started, because the old coalition doesn’t like him.

So what is Team Romney’s rejoinder? To raise expectations for the debates. No, I’m not joking. The Romney people now trumpet the line that a strong showing in the debates will decide the contest. Now no matter how well Rommey performs–and he is not a great debater–the narrative will be that Romney was good, but not good enough. Not a ‘game-changer,’ that sort of thing.

casuist on September 25, 2012 at 3:14 PM


Reagan isn’t on the ballot, Willard is. ‘nough said.

Must you rub it in?

casuist on September 25, 2012 at 3:19 PM

D+7 on any poll should earn it an automatic trip to the Recycle Bin …. but Ed and AP raise it up on high and tinkle all over themselves in the process.

PolAgnostic on September 25, 2012 at 1:04 PM


Question for Ed and AP
: If Obama WAS actually leading by as large a margin as these ridiculously skewed polls claim he is …

What would be the empirical evidence which would prove he is walking away with the election?

Come on guys, this is obvious to anyone who has been involved in national politics.

For the casual readers: I’ll eliminate one answer which applies but is NOT the best answer to this question.

If Obama was walking away with the election … Obama WOULD throw Hillary under the bus for the Libya mess and accept the damage William Jefferson Clinton could do to him as payback.

PolAgnostic on September 25, 2012 at 3:22 PM

Wasn’t Romntard supposed to create a whole new GOP coalition or something?

If “Romtard” loses its not his fault. Its the knuckle-dragging, moron, American people.

sheikh of thornton on September 25, 2012 at 3:29 PM


If “Romtard” loses its not his fault. Its the knuckle-dragging, moron, American people.

It’s pointless to blame the voters. Rather like a restaurateur who blames the patrons for the high prices, poor service, and horrible food. Instead, offer the people something more palatable than Romney.

People want to eat. But they won’t eat anything. And you can’t pee all over them and insist that it’s champagne.

casuist on September 25, 2012 at 3:35 PM

Gallup … Obama plus three

U2denver on September 25, 2012 at 3:35 PM

It’s pointless to blame the voters. Rather like a restaurateur who blames the patrons for the high prices, poor service, and horrible food. Instead, offer the people something more palatable than Romney.

Could be that Romney wants something more palatable than Americans.

sheikh of thornton on September 25, 2012 at 3:38 PM

Hey Ed if you think they are going to stop at anythingto make sure that the critical state of Ohio is being won by Obama you are kidding yourself.

This level of putting your humb on the scale doesn’t stop with sample manipulation. I won’t even trust the base numbers for Independents anymore from the likes of WAPO.

Conan on September 25, 2012 at 3:38 PM

But Mitt Romney is an Anti Christ as is Obama.

Steveangell on September 25, 2012 at 2:40 PM

I’m sick of this kind of crap. You may not agree with Romney on policy, you may think he is a terrible candidate, but this is bullsh!t.

Go fvck yourself.

jazzmo on September 25, 2012 at 3:45 PM

I’m sick of this kind of crap. You may not agree with Romney on policy, you may think he is a terrible candidate, but this is bullsh!t.

Go fvck yourself.

jazzmo on September 25, 2012 at 3:45 PM

.
And yet, he has posted even more despicable statements …

America has become corrupt from top to bottom. A country will destroy its self when 50% of the citizens are convinced they can live off the other 50%. Yet here we are. Americans voting their pocketbook for free everything. A media that is just a piece of the DNC. I see very little difference than the horror stories about the USSR. The communist have beat America without firing a shot. Either we wake up or they will pull the final few levers of power and we will wake up when the death squads start.

Steveangell on May 18, 2012 at 3:55 PM

PolAgnostic on September 25, 2012 at 3:49 PM

Conan The Ohio dynamic you are overlooking is Kasich and the right wingers got smashed in the vote over collective bargaining last year in Ohio and The GOP still has not recovered in Ohio and they won’t win in November in Ohio … Both Mandel and Romney will lose

U2denver on September 25, 2012 at 3:51 PM

Romney/Ryan is a weaker ticket than McCain/Palin, and though at the moment they are running marginally ahead of the 2008 ticket, it will not surprise me if the margin widens by election time.

There will be no more major news, the QE3 will tide over the stock market till the election time, and the debates will not move the needle much.

Good news: we still have 43 Senate seats locked in, and equal or better chances in IN, AZ, MT, NV, ND. Even 45 should be enough for an unbreakable filibuster block. And perhaps the House can be held, but there was not enough polling to understand what’s going in the House districts.

buridan on September 25, 2012 at 3:55 PM


Romney/Ryan is a weaker ticket than McCain/Palin, and though at the moment they are running marginally ahead of the 2008 ticket, it will not surprise me if the margin widens by election time.

Obama’s support has collapsed along with the economy yet Romney-Ryan poll only marginally ahead of McCain-Palin during a wave election.

Go Mitt, go! Please. Just go. You’ve done enough damage, Mitt. Your anger against conservatives of the Nixon era for what they did to your father has to have been satisfied by now. Go destroy something else.

Good news: we still have 43 Senate seats locked in, and equal or better chances in IN, AZ, MT, NV, ND. Even 45 should be enough for an unbreakable filibuster block. And perhaps the House can be held, but there was not enough polling to understand what’s going in the House districts.

Praying for 45 and that we hold the House.

casuist on September 25, 2012 at 4:02 PM

Hey, maybe Romney will eke out a total landslide victory after all. If you believe this site called unskewedpolls dot com Romney is mounting a blow-out at an average of +7.8 across polls.

casuist on September 25, 2012 at 4:08 PM

Hey, maybe Romney will eke out a total landslide victory after all. If you believe this site called unskewedpolls dot com Romney is mounting a blow-out at an average of +7.8 across polls.

casuist on September 25, 2012 at 4:08 PM

Good link. Thanks.

sheikh of thornton on September 25, 2012 at 4:27 PM

However, Obama wins women by seventeen points while losing men by 1 for a +16 gender gap. In 2008, that was just +11 (+3 men, +8 women). If there’s a difference, it’s in that gender gap rather than independents.

But then again Romney does well with married women. Do unmarried women actually outnumber married women by that large a margin in Ohio?

Terrye on September 25, 2012 at 4:58 PM

However, Obama wins women by seventeen points while losing men by 1 for a +16 gender gap. In 2008, that was just +11 (+3 men, +8 women). If there’s a difference, it’s in that gender gap rather than independents.

Hey maybe he will..no thanks to a faux conservative Canadian who votes in Pennsylvannia..

No one is buying your crap.

Terrye on September 25, 2012 at 4:59 PM

I live in Columbus. The SoS released the 1st Rd of absentee ballot apps in Franklin Cry.

22k GOP
17k dems
60k unaffiliated

Dems led in the 1st Rd four yrs ago.

Also I walked my precinct and got positive responses. Even the undecideds were very nice.

anchorman on September 25, 2012 at 8:02 PM

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