WaPo polls: Obama up in OH, FL

posted at 10:41 am on September 25, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

The bad news: new Washington Post polls of likely voters in Ohio and Florida show Barack Obama leading both key swing states, and outside the margin of error in Ohio.  The good news?  Er … at some point, the replacement officials will get the boot from the NFL.  No, seriously, the polls don’t have a lot of good news, but the sample skew in Ohio might be a somewhat mitigating factor:

President Obama has grabbed a significant lead over Mitt Romney in Ohio and holds a slender edge in Florida, according to two new polls by the Washington Post that indicate there are fresh hurdles in the way of the Republican nominee’s best route to victory in the Electoral College.

Among likely voters, Obama is ahead of Romney in Ohio by 52 to 44 percent. In Florida, the president is up 51 to 47 percent, a numerical but not statistically significant edge. Among all registered Florida voters, Obama is up nine percentage points.

All right, let’s look at the samples, bearing in mind my analysis from earlier today.  Among likely voters in the Ohio sample, the D/R/I is 37/30/30.  That’s a far cry from the midterm 36/37/28 — but it’s not that far off from 2008′s 39/31/30.  The question, then, is what kind of turnout should we expect in Ohio — one that looks more like 2008 or 2010?  Before you answer that, remember that the Republicans who won that midterm election in Ohio have struggled to maintain their momentum, although John Kasich appears to be rebounding a bit now.

Let’s look at a couple of other demos in Ohio.  Romney actually has a one-point edge over Obama among likely-voter independents, 47/46.  In 2008, Obama won them by eight points, 52/44, on his way to winning the state by five.   However, Obama wins women by seventeen points while losing men by 1 for a +16 gender gap.  In 2008, that was just +11 (+3 men, +8 women).  If there’s a difference, it’s in that gender gap rather than independents.

Next, let’s look at Florida, where Obama only has a 4-point lead.  The likely-voter D/R/I has a D+1 edge, 33/32/31.  That’s right in the ballpark for Florida, which had a 37/34/29 in 2008 and 36/36/29 in 2010.  Unfortunately, their link to the cross-tab functions isn’t working so it’s impossible to drill down further than this, but it shows that Romney needs to pick up his game in the Sunshine State, too.

Update: I had a typo in the 2010 exit polling in Ohio; the independent vote was 28%, not 38%.


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Than your memory isn’t very good. Reagan was leading national polls at this point in 1980.

libfreeordie on September 25, 2012 at 11:22 AM

Youngster, I lived then. You didn’t. All we had back then was Radio News, Newspapers, ABC, NBC, CBS, and PBS.. I was a News Director at the capus radio Station at Memphis State University from 1978-1980. I know what I am talking about, perfesser.

You weren’t even born, yet.

kingsjester on September 25, 2012 at 11:25 AM

Is that the old Gravis Marketing poll? Which is more recent, that or ABC/Wash Post?

gumbyandpokey on September 25, 2012 at 11:21 AM

They overlap (9/19-23 WaPo, 9/21-22 Gravis).

sheikh of thornton on September 25, 2012 at 11:25 AM


Do you really believe that you are going to demoralize us and stop us from voting to Romney?

Are you that impressionable?

casuist on September 25, 2012 at 11:26 AM

I knew after the GOP convention Romney was going to lose. That convention was so Milquetoast. Nine out of 10 times in national elections the RINO will lose. This election is no different.

bgibbs1000 on September 25, 2012 at 11:26 AM

After a certain number of those posts, you scroll past the troll and troll-response posts.

AZfederalist on September 25, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Thanks for that! It makes a lot of sense, and I appreciate your answering.

Paddington on September 25, 2012 at 11:26 AM

@rollthedice

I appreciate the Star Trek reference. That said, Romney is going to get a well-earned beating on Election Day.

inklake on September 25, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Ruh Roh for Obama.
Gravis Marketing has barry just squeeking out a O+1 in OIHO. Gravis is non partisan, unlike WaPo.
sheikh of thornton on September 25, 2012 at 11:19 AM

Yup:
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll: September 25, 2012

whatcat on September 25, 2012 at 11:26 AM

from instapundit, poll shows romney/obama neck and neck in ohio. Priebus says we’re within a field goal…

http://nicedeb.wordpress.com/2012/09/24/obama-and-romney-neck-in-neck-in-oh-poll-with-d10-sample/

MaggiePoo on September 25, 2012 at 11:27 AM

Than your memory isn’t very good. Reagan was leading national polls at this point in 1980.

libfreeordie on September 25, 2012 at 11:22 AM

Then Carter led after that and in fact he was leading just few days before the elections according to Gallup.

It is not difficult to understand what is going on here… The media are using party breakdown models similar to 2008 and in some cases showing democrats in their polls higher than 2008… This is simply insane, unrealistic, and a lie… It cannot happen and it is not going to happen.

I re-caclculated this Ohio Poll and ABC News using a party breakdown of D=35, R=35, I =30 and the result is Obama 48.5%, Romney 47.7%…

mnjg on September 25, 2012 at 11:28 AM

Jules – it’s not Mitt. It’s his campaign staff and strategy. Mitt is a very good person, likable and incredibly trustworthy.

Romney’s campaign thought his resume would push him into office, and his credentials were unquestionable.

As odd as it seems, by not being on stage like Romney was for the primaries, facing his opponent, people do not get a sense of how much better of a choice Romney is.

They screwed up by running an campaign style that was baked over a decade ago. Team Mitt has no concept on how to communicate through today’s media.

budfox on September 25, 2012 at 11:29 AM

“Than your memory isn’t very good. Reagan was leading national polls at this point in 1980.

libfreeordie on September 25, 2012 at 11:22 AM

Youngster, I lived then. You didn’t. All we had back then was Radio News, Newspapers, ABC, NBC, CBS, and PBS.. I was a News Director at the capus radio Station at Memphis State University from 1978-1980. I know what I am talking about, perfesser.

You weren’t even born, yet.

kingsjester on September 25, 2012 at 11:25 AM”

Looks like the Reagan/Carter polling facts need to be posted AGAIN….

http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/debunking-a-myth-reagan-was-leading-carter-long-before-that-final-october-debate/

gumbyandpokey on September 25, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Ohio Secretary of State office reporting huge increase in Ohio absentee requests, which overwhelming response in Hamilton County (Cincinnati), which presumably is a plus for Romney.

Conversely, The Hill newspaper is reporting the Obama ground game in Ohio is superior from one corner of the state to the other. Yet RNC Chair Preibus says GOP is winning the ground game in Ohio.

Any Ohio commenters?

Ironic that Romney is trailing in both WI and OH – when both states’ economies are improving in spite of Obama policies, not because of them.

Romney is going to win FL.

matthew8787 on September 25, 2012 at 11:30 AM


The problem isn’t the lame media or pollsters, Mitt Romney just isn’t likeable enough to be President, period.

Yes, he is kind of remote, aloof, austere, and he bears himself even behind a podium as one who enjoys privilege. When he attempts to larf or josh with reporters or operatives he creeps everyone out. But, hey, he saved the Olympics or something. That has to count for something, right?

casuist on September 25, 2012 at 11:30 AM

It is not difficult to understand what is going on here… The media are using party breakdown models similar to 2008 and in some cases showing democrats in their polls higher than 2008… This is simply insane, unrealistic, and a lie… It cannot happen and it is not going to happen.

I re-caclculated this Ohio Poll and ABC News using a party breakdown of D=35, R=35, I =30 and the result is Obama 48.5%, Romney 47.7%…

mnjg on September 25, 2012 at 11:28 AM

Yes, and the snowball effect of that is to demoralize Republicans and create a bandwagon effect for Obama, so turnout ends up matching their models. Yet, too many are buying into it and behaving exactly as they’d like.

changer1701 on September 25, 2012 at 11:30 AM

To be frank it is not 2008. In 2008 a large section of America had a psychotic break and hallucinated this latte colored Jesus thing. Watching people have a psychotic break is disturbing but it is rare.

I don’t see the DogDestroyer conjuring up that mass Hitler-like hysteria in 2012.

CorporatePiggy on September 25, 2012 at 11:31 AM

WaPo?

More dung on the pile for the troll-flies.

Big whoop.

M240H on September 25, 2012 at 11:31 AM

gumbyandpokey on September 25, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Are you a Romney voter? You keep ignoring the question, for some reason…

changer1701 on September 25, 2012 at 11:32 AM

gumbyandpokey on September 25, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Here ya go, Skippy. From the Washington Post:

http://times247.com/articles/gallup-had-carter-winning-over-reagan-in-sept-1980

kingsjester on September 25, 2012 at 11:33 AM


They screwed up by running an campaign style that was baked over a decade ago. Team Mitt has no concept on how to communicate through today’s media.

I don’t know. They seem effective when they choose to bash conservatives.

casuist on September 25, 2012 at 11:33 AM

Wonder if Preibus’ job is in jeopardy if the election goes south?

gumbyandpokey on September 25, 2012 at 11:33 AM

Here’s the thing….

The early voting numbers/absentee ballot requests are favoring Romney in Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, Ohio, South Dakota…they are favoring Obama in Iowa and Maine.

sentinelrules on September 25, 2012 at 11:33 AM

Kasich has a 52% approval rating according to the Ohio Newspaper poll.

anchorman on September 25, 2012 at 11:23 AM

If Kasich is so beloved, why in the hell hasn’t been on the stump with Romney, just once?

Please. Mitt would love to make the fracking argument on behalf of Kasich as a way to parlay that into his national energy policy.

But he can’t because the optics of being seen with Kasich is a surefire way to irritate cops/fire who usually vote R.

budfox on September 25, 2012 at 11:34 AM

“Are you a Romney voter? You keep ignoring the question, for some reason…”

In the general, yeah. But I was a Santorum supporter in the primary.

gumbyandpokey on September 25, 2012 at 11:34 AM

Happy Nomad on September 25, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Maybe, maybe not

As the ‘disorganized’ comment (above)… the phone’s been ringing off the hook with Repub/Conserv robocalls, asking for volunteers, and offering paid positions for electioneering.

Zero phone calls from the Obozo folks…

Somebody’s busy, and the ‘rats are relying on negative / lying TV ads… you decide how that’ll shake out.

CPT. Charles on September 25, 2012 at 11:34 AM


Yet, too many are buying into it and behaving exactly as they’d like.

Yes, people behaving as they wish is a problem. If only they would shut up, sit down, and do as they were told.

casuist on September 25, 2012 at 11:34 AM

Than your memory isn’t very good. Reagan was leading national polls at this point in 1980.

libfreeordie on September 25, 2012 at 11:22 AM

Youngster, I lived then. You didn’t. All we had back then was Radio News, Newspapers, ABC, NBC, CBS, and PBS.. I was a News Director at the capus radio Station at Memphis State University from 1978-1980. I know what I am talking about, perfesser.

You weren’t even born, yet.

kingsjester on September 25, 2012 at 11:25 AM

Same here, I was around too. What I recall is that by September 1980 the jokes about “Bedtime for Bonzo” and that “actor from California” where all the rage, but they became very subdued after the second debate when Reagan cleaned Jimmah’s clock on October 28. People actually used to pay attention…

Difficultas_Est_Imperium on September 25, 2012 at 11:35 AM

Than your memory isn’t very good. Reagan was leading national polls at this point in 1980.

libfreeordie on September 25, 2012 at 11:22 AM

What is your reference for this? I remember taking a physics exam the evening of the election. I came out of the exam expecting a long night of election coverage ahead of me only to turn on the car radio to hear it was all over and Carter had conceded. I was floored and had feared a Carter victory. Reagan was not leading in the polls at this point in 1980!

bopbottle on September 25, 2012 at 11:35 AM

Slightly OT, but Romney really gave an excellent speech this morning at the Clinton Global Initiative conference.

I wonder what SCoAMF is going to say at the UN. More of the same weak tea, I presume.

UltimateBob on September 25, 2012 at 11:00 AM

I came here expecting a thread on Romney’s speech, which I thought was not just excellent but inspirational and even fabulous. Instead I see a thread with weak analysis of more dishonest Democrat polls.

Republican pundits are demanding everything from Romney while most of them are turning in sad sub-par performances.

Basilsbest on September 25, 2012 at 11:35 AM

If everyone who doesn’t like the job Obama is doing shows up and votes, Obama will not be re-elected.

bflat879 on September 25, 2012 at 11:35 AM

“Are you a Romney voter? You keep ignoring the question, for some reason…”

In the general, yeah. But I was a Santorum supporter in the primary.

gumbyandpokey on September 25, 2012 at 11:34 AM

And I’m a 22 year old blonde Dallas Cowboy Cheerleader named Buffy.

Sheesh.

kingsjester on September 25, 2012 at 11:36 AM

Yes, and the snowball effect of that is to demoralize Republicans and create a bandwagon effect for Obama, so turnout ends up matching their models. Yet, too many are buying into it and behaving exactly as they’d like.

changer1701 on September 25, 2012 at 11:30 AM

After they have failed in every strategy they tried (Bain Capital, Romney tax returns, etc…) they came down to this final strategy of demoralizing the Republican base by creating biased polls showing Obama leading coupled with lies that Romney campaign is in chaos… This too will fail as well…

mnjg on September 25, 2012 at 11:36 AM

I knew after the GOP convention Romney was going to lose. That convention was so Milquetoast. Nine out of 10 times in national elections the RINO will lose. This election is no different.

bgibbs1000 on September 25, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Romney’s job was to keep it close – that was the rationale for his nomination: the generic R candidate can keep it close, and given the crappy economy, even squeak in with a narrow win.
Usually though, the generic candidates lose (see Kerry, J and Dukakis, M). And Romney is worse than a generic candidate, he cannot connect at all, and has no gifts as a retail politician.

In 2008, Obama got ~70 mil votes. He may have difficulty matching that, since the turnout in his groups may be lower. But McCain/Palin actually got 60 millions votes, and Romney/Ryan may well go below that as well.

And yes, the House is in play, and in 2 weeks it will look like a 50/50 proposition.

buridan on September 25, 2012 at 11:36 AM

I have a question. Is Romney holding back the Death Star TV assault because his internal polls show him essentially tied in key states, or is he holding back because the RNC-Romney-Super Pacs don’t have enough money to expand the field?

I fail to understand why Romney, with his purported huge financial advantage, is not expanding the map into PA/NJ, Minnesota/Des Moines, New Mexico, etc; move the needle in this expanded field and force Obama to react; and DRAIN OBAMA DRY.

If Obama cannot keep up financially, make him shoot his wad now.

No comprendo.

matthew8787 on September 25, 2012 at 11:36 AM

Matthew……

I am from Ohio. CBus. And I have been making calls and door knocking. The calls have been great. A lot of people have said they voted for Oblowme 4yrs ago but intend to vote for Romney. Knocking on doors the same, even the people who are undecided have been very receptive!

anchorman on September 25, 2012 at 11:36 AM

Yes, he is kind of remote, aloof, austere, and he bears himself even behind a podium as one who enjoys privilege. When he attempts to larf or josh with reporters or operatives he creeps everyone out. But, hey, he saved the Olympics or something. That has to count for something, right?

casuist on September 25, 2012 at 11:30 AM

What has Obama saved besides Teacher’s Unions (stimulus) and the Auto Worker’s Unions (bailout)?

GM is certainly not in a position of strength, and the cuts to local schools are happening now after simply delaying the inevitable with the stimulus.

Again, what has Obama done that even compares to saving the Olympics?

weaselyone on September 25, 2012 at 11:37 AM

In the general, yeah. But I was a Santorum supporter in the primary.

gumbyandpokey on September 25, 2012 at 11:34 AM

Forget politics and ideology for a second the fact that you can lie in such a brazen way reveals your true despicable character as a human…

mnjg on September 25, 2012 at 11:37 AM

Another thing Matthew, we have been pushing the absentee requests during the phone calls!

anchorman on September 25, 2012 at 11:38 AM

I don’t know. They seem effective when they choose to bash conservatives.

casuist on September 25, 2012 at 11:33 AM

Right! But why did that work?

Because Mitt was then able to stand on stage with them and get into a knife fight. Either they would be totally angered by his ads, or Mitt would come out hard against their charges.

That’s how he beat Newt. First, he got under his skin. Then, he stood strong against the Bain attacks and it made Newt look petulant.

They never grasped that cross-media combat with Obama. When they did luck into – “you didn’t build that”, the embassies – it works.

budfox on September 25, 2012 at 11:38 AM

Matthew……

I am from Ohio. CBus. And I have been making calls and door knocking. The calls have been great. A lot of people have said they voted for Oblowme 4yrs ago but intend to vote for Romney. Knocking on doors the same, even the people who are undecided have been very receptive!

anchorman on September 25, 2012 at 11:36 AM

Thank you very much for the feedback “anchorman”… Great to hear this… and thank you very much for all your hrad work… It is people like you who would make us win…

mnjg on September 25, 2012 at 11:39 AM

“Are you a Romney voter? You keep ignoring the question, for some reason…”

In the general, yeah. But I was a Santorum supporter in the primary.

gumbyandpokey on September 25, 2012 at 11:34 AM

Voting for Romney but supporting Obama – enthusiastically. The effing Primary is over, idiot.

Basilsbest on September 25, 2012 at 11:39 AM

For the poll denialists, a blast from the past:

http://hotair.com/archives/2008/11/05/were-the-polls-right/

Pretty much, yeah. CNN has the popular vote at 52/46 as I write this but the numbers are still moving; when I run the math from the actual vote totals, it’s 53.0/46.9, for a margin of 6.1 percent. The final RCP spread: 7.6 percent, a figure boosted by a few eleventh-hour double-digit outliers like Gallup and Zogby but otherwise reflective of the conventional wisdom over the last month that had the race steady at six or seven points. Rasmussen and Pew nailed it and Fox, CNN, Hotline, and McClatchy were all off by a single point, well within the margin of error. Nate Silver’s statistical model? 6.1 percent exactly.

lester on September 25, 2012 at 11:39 AM

lester on September 25, 2012 at 11:39 AM

Those were election day polls. Not from this far out.

kingsjester on September 25, 2012 at 11:40 AM

“In the general, yeah. But I was a Santorum supporter in the primary.

gumbyandpokey on September 25, 2012 at 11:34 AM

Forget politics and ideology for a second the fact that you can lie in such a brazen way reveals your true despicable character as a human…

mnjg on September 25, 2012 at 11:37 AM”

Gee, thanks!

I’m just a realist. And it does zero good for Conservatives to ignore polls and end up with the thrashing we got in 08. At least Palin had some fire in her belly to keep you interested.

BTW, Ryan is really leaking to talk radio in WI how unhappy he is.

gumbyandpokey on September 25, 2012 at 11:41 AM

Jesus people, we havent even had the first debate yet. Relax!! As for the polls, I am gonna live and die by Rasmussen. Forget everything else and go with them. They have Romney tied with Obama nationally and Obama up by a few points in the battlegrounds. In other words, a close race. Its not over so stop whining.

Jack_Burton on September 25, 2012 at 11:41 AM

It should’nt matter that Romney is a good or bad candidate. A dead rat should be able to beat the worst potus in our history. If O wins we are done as a free nation. We will all have to whisper, drive slow and give up any weapons for “the common good”. Romney must win!

faol on September 25, 2012 at 11:42 AM

I have ask the same question for many days.Why do people in Ohio,Michigan and Penn.not have the common sense to see what Obama is and not vote for him?The answer i get back most of the time is unions.Sorry to say it,s a lot more than that.It,s just plain greed on their part.As long as Obama promises to make their pensions whole with other peoples money these greedy people seam to say .To hell with the rest of the country as long as i get mine.No wonder people are leaving these states.They will soon realize if Obama is reelected no job ,no power,no coal,no pensions and looking to the government for their next meal.Obama can promise them 100% protection for their pension but when the rest of the people have no money left to take.Then 100% will be worth nothing.

logman1 on September 25, 2012 at 11:42 AM

from instapundit, poll shows romney/obama neck and neck in ohio. Priebus says we’re within a field goal…

http://nicedeb.wordpress.com/2012/09/24/obama-and-romney-neck-in-neck-in-oh-poll-with-d10-sample/

MaggiePoo on September 25, 2012 at 11:27 AM

Thanks. Good link.

sheikh of thornton on September 25, 2012 at 11:42 AM

Jesus people, we havent even had the first debate yet. Relax!! As for the polls, I am gonna live and die by Rasmussen. Forget everything else and go with them. They have Romney tied with Obama nationally and Obama up by a few points in the battlegrounds. In other words, a close race. Its not over so stop whining.

Jack_Burton on September 25, 2012 at 11:41 AM

Why relax when early voting has begun? We are now officially playing for keeps.

weaselyone on September 25, 2012 at 11:44 AM

Bud Fox……

Kasich has been on the trail with him. Powell ohio a few weeks ago. With Ryan at Miami.

Thanks mnjg!

anchorman on September 25, 2012 at 11:44 AM

Well, just to cheer you up, I have no doubt that Romney will win PA, and it will be cheat-proof. They seem to be doing exactly what needs to be done. Probably the people running the show reflect the competence of the candidate. That is true in both cases.

Paddington on September 25, 2012 at 11:19 AM

Thank you for the good news. Where in PA do you live?

A agree that the Obama campaign is a house of cards, but Romney needs to give it a good kick . Soon.

matthew8787 on September 25, 2012 at 11:45 AM

“It should’nt matter that Romney is a good or bad candidate. A dead rat should be able to beat the worst potus in our history. If O wins we are done as a free nation. We will all have to whisper, drive slow and give up any weapons for “the common good”. Romney must win!”

With Consumer Confidence surging, it will be tough to bean any incumbent.

gumbyandpokey on September 25, 2012 at 11:45 AM

I fail to understand why Romney, with his purported huge financial advantage, is not expanding the map into PA/NJ, Minnesota/Des Moines, New Mexico, etc; move the needle in this expanded field and force Obama to react; and DRAIN OBAMA DRY.

If Obama cannot keep up financially, make him shoot his wad now.

No comprendo.

matthew8787 on September 25, 2012 at 11:36 AM

There are conflicting reports about the financial edge, if there is any. One thing that has kept Romney off the trail recently, which he’s also been criticized for, is the fact that he’s had to do all these fundraisers.

As far as expanding the map, PA and NJ are very tough terrain at the presidential level for the GOP and, with limited resources, you have to target more likely states. Keep in mind, the path to victory for him involves flipping at least six states from ’08…if it’s only six, OH, FL, and VA are much more likely than PA and NJ. You’ve got to play the percentages.

changer1701 on September 25, 2012 at 11:45 AM

Sentinel Rules…..

How do you know who they favor? Just asking!

anchorman on September 25, 2012 at 11:45 AM

lester on September 25, 2012 at 11:39 AM

So easily fooled…the polls become “accurate” days before the election, so they can say “See, we were right on”…but leading up to those days, they are heavily skewed towards whomever they want to win, which in this case is pretty obvious, Obama.

So, yeah, on Nov 4 or 5th the polls will “tighten” and whomever is ahead will be ahead, and probably win…but until then, they are jerking your chain, and you are falling for it…it’s so easy.

right2bright on September 25, 2012 at 11:47 AM


Romney’s job was to keep it close – that was the rationale for his nomination: the generic R candidate can keep it close, and given the crappy economy, even squeak in with a narrow win.
Usually though, the generic candidates lose (see Kerry, J and Dukakis, M). And Romney is worse than a generic candidate, he cannot connect at all, and has no gifts as a retail politician.

Yes. Only it’s worse than that. Romney bases himself out of a blue state non-contiguous with the GOP regional base, a state he could never carry, a state that when he departed from his single term as governor he was ranked 49 in terms of voter approval among U.S. state governors. Also: He fails to connect with the 2 principal ideological formations of the GOP, social conservatives, and tea partiers. Example: When Clinton introduced Romney at the Clinton Global Initiative summit (or whatever it is) the former president raved about Romney’s work to protect and promote progressive and redistributionist youth programs in his state among other progressive ventures.

casuist on September 25, 2012 at 11:47 AM

BTW, Ryan is really leaking to talk radio in WI how unhappy he is.

gumbyandpokey on September 25, 2012 at 11:41 AM

sure, gumby. he doesn’t leak like u leak.

gracie on September 25, 2012 at 11:47 AM

Gravis Marketing also did a poll of likely voters in Ohio but they found Obama to only have a 1% lead. Obama was at 45.2% compared to 44.3% for Romney. Others and undecided voters were at 10.4% which was a considerable block of the likely voters in Ohio. The Gravis Marketing poll was conducted over a two day period September 21 and September 22.

In Arkansas, Talk Business poll did a poll on September 17, 2012. They found Romney had a commanding lead in Arkansas of 21%. President Obama was at 34.5% compared to 55.5% for Mitt Romney. Third party candidates were at 3% with undecided voters at 7%. The 10% mark for Third party candidates and undecided voters combined was similar to the results Gravis Marketing found in Ohio.

If a reliable poll has Obama at 34.5% in Arkansas, there is no way that Obama is at 51% in Ohio (WaPo). Defies logic.

..

matthew8787 on September 25, 2012 at 11:48 AM

BTW, Ryan is really leaking to talk radio in WI how unhappy he is.

gumbyandpokey on September 25, 2012 at 11:41 AM

Really? Cite your source, please. I’ll retune my radio here.

M240H on September 25, 2012 at 11:49 AM


It should’nt matter that Romney is a good or bad candidate. A dead rat should be able to beat the worst potus in our history.

According to your theory a dead rat would outperform Team Romney. Wait. I think I agree with you.

casuist on September 25, 2012 at 11:50 AM

With Consumer Confidence surging, it will be tough to bean any incumbent.

gumbyandpokey on September 25, 2012 at 11:45 AM

What is the reasoning behind the increase in Consumer Confidence? A rising stock market and rising home prices….gee, I wonder if QE3 had anything to do with that?

weaselyone on September 25, 2012 at 11:50 AM

However, Obama wins women by seventeen points while losing men by 1 for a +16 gender gap.

What ever happened to women being the smarter of the two genders?

Carnac on September 25, 2012 at 11:52 AM

Consumer Confidence surging! LMFAO!

anchorman on September 25, 2012 at 11:52 AM

Matthew……

I am from Ohio. CBus. And I have been making calls and door knocking. The calls have been great. A lot of people have said they voted for Oblowme 4yrs ago but intend to vote for Romney. Knocking on doors the same, even the people who are undecided have been very receptive!

anchorman on September 25, 2012 at 11:36 AM
Thank you very much for the feedback “anchorman”… Great to hear this… and thank you very much for all your hrad work… It is people like you who would make us win…

mnjg on September 25, 2012 at 11:39 AM

Concur. Thank you for the feedback and the hard work. Please keep us informed from time to time, because a key objective of the MSM and their noxious polls is to dampen our motivation.

matthew8787 on September 25, 2012 at 11:53 AM

“Really? Cite your source, please. I’ll retune my radio here.”

Yesterday’s Mark Belling show, where he said as much.

gumbyandpokey on September 25, 2012 at 11:53 AM


There are conflicting reports about the financial edge, if there is any. One thing that has kept Romney off the trail recently, which he’s also been criticized for, is the fact that he’s had to do all these fundraisers.

Yes, only it’s worse than that. Even if Romney had the money his own negatives are too high for him to support the sort negative campaigning that he used to great effect against Republicans. You can only go negative if you’re likeable enough to absorb the blow-back. So Romney is stuck with these empty-anodyne commercials that move precisely no one.

casuist on September 25, 2012 at 11:53 AM

Okay they’re all in the house again…gumby, buridan, casuist and libfree, can you answer this question?

Suppose you’re a dem voter in MA. You either love RomneyCare and want to keep it or you love Obama so much you’d rather trade RomneyCare for ObamaCare. How do you vote?

DanMan on September 25, 2012 at 11:54 AM

So easily fooled…the polls become “accurate” days before the election, so they can say “See, we were right on”…but leading up to those days, they are heavily skewed towards whomever they want to win, which in this case is pretty obvious, Obama.

So, yeah, on Nov 4 or 5th the polls will “tighten” and whomever is ahead will be ahead, and probably win…but until then, they are jerking your chain, and you are falling for it…it’s so easy.

right2bright on September 25, 2012 at 11:47 AM

It would be nice to go to the early voting returns by date and compare that to polling data at the time. I don’t think there is a mechanism that would allow for tabulation of votes by date though.

On another note, why can’t states that allow early voting start publishing the returns as they receive ballots? What is the difference between releasing the actual results in real time as opposed to allowing polls to be released during the same period?

Can anyone do “exit polling” on early voters and realease it prior to the true “election day”? That would be telling as well. Again this shouldn’t be an issue to release the data.

weaselyone on September 25, 2012 at 11:54 AM

“Consumer Confidence surging! LMFAO!

anchorman on September 25, 2012 at 11:52 AM”

Yeah, it is, LMFAO!!!!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-25/consumer-confidence-in-u-s-increases-to-a-seven-month-high.html

gumbyandpokey on September 25, 2012 at 11:55 AM

Mason Dixon poll has Obama by 1 in Florida … so the polls are still all over the place…

Mason-Dixon poll: Dead heat in Florida for President Barack Obama, GOP contender Mitt Romney

crazywater on September 25, 2012 at 11:55 AM

Suppose you’re a dem voter in MA.

I would move to a state with a lower cost of living. I would then find a cult-deprogrammer to shake me loose from the years of indoctrination that caused me to vote Democrat.

casuist on September 25, 2012 at 11:56 AM

If ROmney was getting beat so badly, why would these Trolls be so desperate?

kingsjester on September 25, 2012 at 11:56 AM

I have a question. Is Romney holding back the Death Star TV assault because his internal polls show him essentially tied in key states, or is he holding back because the RNC-Romney-Super Pacs don’t have enough money to expand the field?

I fail to understand why Romney, with his purported huge financial advantage, is not expanding the map into PA/NJ, Minnesota/Des Moines, New Mexico, etc; move the needle in this expanded field and force Obama to react; and DRAIN OBAMA DRY.

If Obama cannot keep up financially, make him shoot his wad now.

No comprendo.

matthew8787 on September 25, 2012 at 11:36 AM

There is no “Death Star”, it was all made up. Obama has $40M (90 vs 50) more cash on hand before even considering the DNC convention. While Romney has a huge lead in super PAC funds, those funds spend at 1/3rd the value of candidate funds. Candidates get lowest TV advertising rate offered, PAC’s pay 3-4x that rate for the same time. At the very least Obama will match last 2 week spending if not beat Romney. This is why folks complaining about Romney fundraising don’t know what they are talking about. Romney must continue to fundraise to remain competitive. Romney may win and may win the fundraising battle but this mega “Death Star” is urban myth.

NextGen on September 25, 2012 at 11:57 AM

Yeah, it is, LMFAO!!!!

gumbyandpokey on September 25, 2012 at 11:55 AM

that explains the second downgrade following QE3 doesn’t it?

DanMan on September 25, 2012 at 11:58 AM

Consumer Confidence surging! LMFAO!

anchorman on September 25, 2012 at 11:52 AM

It surprisingly is a credible comment:
Consumer Confidence in U.S. Increases to a Seven-Month High

Confidence among American consumers rose more than forecast in September to a seven-month high, which may help support the largest part of the economy.

The Conference Board’s index increased to 70.3 this month from 61.3 in August, figures from the New York-based private research group showed today. The September figure exceeded the most optimistic projection of economists, whose median estimate in a Bloomberg survey called for 63.1.

Rising home values and higher stock prices are helping bolster sentiment, which may encourage households to boost the spending that accounts for about 70 percent of the economy. At the same time, a jobless rate in excess of 8 percent and limited wage gains are acting as restraints.

In short, Consumer Confidence is increasing. Note though that it is because of higher stock prices and increased home values…which I assume are a direct result of QE3 and not due to actual consumer sentiment.

weaselyone on September 25, 2012 at 11:59 AM


If ROmney was getting beat so badly, why would these Trolls be so desperate?

Let us reframe the question. If Romney were 10 points ahead or something, would the dissenting voices that upset you so much matter to you at all?

casuist on September 25, 2012 at 11:59 AM

BTW, Ryan is really leaking to talk radio in WI how unhappy he is.

gumbyandpokey on September 25, 2012 at 11:41 AM

Any links or details about this? I hadn’t heard this at all.

Doomberg on September 25, 2012 at 11:59 AM

casuist on September 25, 2012 at 11:56 AM

stike the testimony…non-responsive

DanMan on September 25, 2012 at 12:00 PM

Ruh Roh Shaggy.

WordsMatter on September 25, 2012 at 12:00 PM

Yeah, it is, LMFAO!!!!

Tell that to all the people unemployed!

anchorman on September 25, 2012 at 12:02 PM


This is why folks complaining about Romney fundraising don’t know what they are talking about. Romney must continue to fundraise to remain competitive. Romney may win and may win the fundraising battle but this mega “Death Star” is urban myth.

Urban legend, is the term. When people refer to the “death star” I don’t think they don’t mean Romney’s campaign cash–and I agree with you about Team Romney’s precarious spending position–I think they mean Romney’s former penchant for over-the-top negative campaigning. Romney’s sudden caution confuses some the Romney fan bois who revelled in how Romney slimed fellow Republicans one after the other.

casuist on September 25, 2012 at 12:05 PM

Romney’s sudden caution confuses some the Romney fan bois who revelled in how Romney slimed fellow Republicans one after the other.

casuist on September 25, 2012 at 12:05 PM

Kind of like a supposed Santorum supporter slimes a fellow Republican day after day on these very blogs.

weaselyone on September 25, 2012 at 12:07 PM

Obama only carried florida in 08′ by 236450 votes. I know so many people in just my circle that are not voting for O this time. Unless Broward and Miami Dade liberal bastions have registered a historic number of voters i just dont see it turning blue this time.

brut4ce on September 25, 2012 at 12:07 PM

Kind of like a supposed Santorum supporter slimes a fellow Republican day after day on these very blogs.

weaselyone on September 25, 2012 at 12:07 PM

It’a amazing how many are still hung up on the primaries.

changer1701 on September 25, 2012 at 12:09 PM

Florida is Romney’s for two reasons: The mortgage crisis and Israel. The religious Jewish retirees are upset about the regime’s treatment of Israel, and the mortgage crisis caused all those Yankees who vote absentee for Chuck Schumer and Bawney Fwank and fly to Orlando the night before the election to vote for idiots like DWS to lose that vacation home. And with a Republican SOS, you know they have been trying to catch the foreclosed double-voters and toss them off the rolls.

Sekhmet on September 25, 2012 at 12:09 PM

Obama only carried florida in 08′ by 236450 votes. I know so many people in just my circle that are not voting for O this time. Unless Broward and Miami Dade liberal bastions have registered a historic number of voters i just dont see it turning blue this time.

brut4ce on September 25, 2012 at 12:07 PM

Don’t forget the cleanup of the voter rolls as well. I think many underestimate the true effects of that.

Plus throw in all the attention given to Voter Fraud, and one may think twice about committing the act now that they could be held accountable.

weaselyone on September 25, 2012 at 12:09 PM

Lots of trolls here today.

WolvenOne on September 25, 2012 at 12:10 PM


Kind of like a supposed Santorum supporter slimes a fellow Republican day after day on these very blogs.

Poor baby. But at least the Santorum groupies attack progressives like Romney. Were they to attack conservatives I would take exception. I might even raise an eyebrow.

casuist on September 25, 2012 at 12:10 PM

Naw we don’t want the trolls to go away on here..libtard for life gumball and the rest….they keep eveybody jacked up.

What is really funny though is they, like the mainstream media, think they “are disouraging the conservative vote turnout in Nov”…when in fact the exact opposite is true.

If you thought 2010 was a shellacking, well this Republican base is jacked higher than I’ve ever seen it in my life.

None of thes polls can predict the actual turnout and therein lies the dilemma for the libtards…they will not turn out like 2008 and the Republicans will turnout like never before in Nov

We’ll be calling it “Shellacking squared” on Nov 7

LaRepublican on September 25, 2012 at 12:14 PM

Don’t forget the cleanup of the voter rolls as well. I think many underestimate the true effects of that.

Plus throw in all the attention given to Voter Fraud, and one may think twice about committing the act now that they could be held accountable.

weaselyone on September 25, 2012 at 12:09 PM

How many did they purge?

brut4ce on September 25, 2012 at 12:15 PM

Are there REALLY any undecided voters at this point? The polls say there are typically around 8% undecided.

I’ve asked the question “who you are voting for” to my facebook friends, family and coworkers. EVERYONE knows who they are going to vote for. I have yet to find ONE person who is undecided.

The closest I’ve come to an undecided voter are people who say “I’m pretty sure, I think” or don’t participate in the discussion.

GadsdenRattlers on September 25, 2012 at 12:15 PM

I scoff at the Poll Clingers who believe this crap. THIS is the method the commies in the media will try to win this election for Team Omarxist. Pushing a false sense of popularity and success.

Even at the height of the messianic obamamania in 2008- The Fraud-in-Chief elect beat McCain by 240,000 votes – 2.7% of the total vote. Has he won over ANY voters who didnt vote for him last time? Has he lost any voters? yep.

That has to be assumed as maximum turnout differential for the first African American pres.

There is no way he increases his vote percentage total over 2008.

November, 2010 told the story of refudiation of teh One, Especially here in Florida -and obie will not be getting the same love from 4 ears ago-
Regardless what the Wapo commies want you to believe.

FlaMurph on September 25, 2012 at 12:18 PM

Anyhow, here is what the folks at Battleground Watch think of these polls.

Ohio: Massive Democrat Oversampling.

http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/09/25/washington-post-surveys-obama-re-election-team-in-ohio-finds-obama-leading-by-8/

Florida: Probably an outlier, considering it shows Obama with 52% approval, and that more people trust him to handle the deficit. Washington Post started off by taking a massively overly democrat leaning sample, and only trimmed it down slightly when they went from Adults to Likely Voters. Starting off with a badly skewed sample, “filtering,” can only go so far.

http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/09/25/obama-4-in-florida-washington-post/

WolvenOne on September 25, 2012 at 12:20 PM

kingsjester on September 25, 2012 at 11:40 AM

right2bright on September 25, 2012 at 11:47 AM

Unlike 538 or Intrade, polls don’t make attempts at predictions. They try to reflect what people think ‘now’. On average they give a fairly accurate picture at any time. They are as accurate on election night as they are on any other night, a week, month or year before election. Doesn’t mean they produce the same result.

The majority of criticism of the polls from the right though is complete denial of their validity. At any time. Which is plain ridiculous.

lester on September 25, 2012 at 12:20 PM


If you thought 2010 was a shellacking, well this Republican base is jacked higher than I’ve ever seen it in my life

.

Yes, and the polls in districts everywhere accurately predicted a Republican blow-out in 2010. Maybe 2014 will be another great year for the GOP. I hope so anyway. 2012 has been awfully depressing.

casuist on September 25, 2012 at 12:22 PM

kingsjester on September 25, 2012 at 11:25 AM

I can’t speak to what people were saying or talking about. What I can speak to (and what anyone can speak to regardless of age) is what the mathematical average of nationals polls was between Reagan and Carter at this point in 1980. That is an objective, un-biased set of factual data. And that data point says that Reagan was ahead at this point in 1980. Period. There is no debate on that point.

What people were saying, whatever that’s your experience you were there great. But the polls were clear, Reagan was winning at this point.

libfreeordie on September 25, 2012 at 12:25 PM


I scoff at the Poll Clingers who believe this crap.

Scoff, do you!? Well, I huff and puff and strut about imperiously at you Romney Clingers who scoff at the grim reality of your candidate’s predictable non-performance.

casuist on September 25, 2012 at 12:25 PM

casuist on September 25, 2012 at 12:22 PM

.
Except your Gal “Botox Nan from San Fran” predicted a different outcome for the Demomarxists in 2010. So not all were on board as you say.

Any poll – with any result – that asks the opinion of 1100 people out of almost 9 million voters (.0001%) in a geographically manipulative state like FLA is…..
well, ……. Go check out the NY Post cover today.

Holy SHIITE !! Batman.

FlaMurph on September 25, 2012 at 12:34 PM

Josh Kraushaar ‏@HotlineJosh
Romney prob in nutshell: Staten Island #NY11 district filled w working-class Catholics: Obama 51, Romney 47. McCain carried CD 51-48% in 08.

gumbyandpokey on September 25, 2012 at 12:45 PM

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