WaPo polls: Obama up in OH, FL

posted at 10:41 am on September 25, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

The bad news: new Washington Post polls of likely voters in Ohio and Florida show Barack Obama leading both key swing states, and outside the margin of error in Ohio.  The good news?  Er … at some point, the replacement officials will get the boot from the NFL.  No, seriously, the polls don’t have a lot of good news, but the sample skew in Ohio might be a somewhat mitigating factor:

President Obama has grabbed a significant lead over Mitt Romney in Ohio and holds a slender edge in Florida, according to two new polls by the Washington Post that indicate there are fresh hurdles in the way of the Republican nominee’s best route to victory in the Electoral College.

Among likely voters, Obama is ahead of Romney in Ohio by 52 to 44 percent. In Florida, the president is up 51 to 47 percent, a numerical but not statistically significant edge. Among all registered Florida voters, Obama is up nine percentage points.

All right, let’s look at the samples, bearing in mind my analysis from earlier today.  Among likely voters in the Ohio sample, the D/R/I is 37/30/30.  That’s a far cry from the midterm 36/37/28 — but it’s not that far off from 2008′s 39/31/30.  The question, then, is what kind of turnout should we expect in Ohio — one that looks more like 2008 or 2010?  Before you answer that, remember that the Republicans who won that midterm election in Ohio have struggled to maintain their momentum, although John Kasich appears to be rebounding a bit now.

Let’s look at a couple of other demos in Ohio.  Romney actually has a one-point edge over Obama among likely-voter independents, 47/46.  In 2008, Obama won them by eight points, 52/44, on his way to winning the state by five.   However, Obama wins women by seventeen points while losing men by 1 for a +16 gender gap.  In 2008, that was just +11 (+3 men, +8 women).  If there’s a difference, it’s in that gender gap rather than independents.

Next, let’s look at Florida, where Obama only has a 4-point lead.  The likely-voter D/R/I has a D+1 edge, 33/32/31.  That’s right in the ballpark for Florida, which had a 37/34/29 in 2008 and 36/36/29 in 2010.  Unfortunately, their link to the cross-tab functions isn’t working so it’s impossible to drill down further than this, but it shows that Romney needs to pick up his game in the Sunshine State, too.

Update: I had a typo in the 2010 exit polling in Ohio; the independent vote was 28%, not 38%.


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any poll similar to 2008 is goat manure, period. Any poll that shows Romney leading independents but losing to Obama in a swing state is also goat manure. Can Obama win, of course, but as of now we on the right have the strength to over the left in a head to head contest.

rob verdi on September 25, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Again and again. If we get a 2008 turnout model Obama will win.

If we get 2004 turnout model Romney will win.

capice!

gerrym51 on September 25, 2012 at 10:45 AM

get your duff to work Mitt!!

ted c on September 25, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Yawn… Poll Fatigue.

brewcrew67 on September 25, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Meaningless. I’ll wait for the November 6th poll if you don’t mind.

Bitter Clinger on September 25, 2012 at 10:46 AM

So why are people in Ohio so damned stupid?

Happy Nomad on September 25, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Florida was supposed to be a lock for Romney when campaign season began. If he’s having trouble there, he’s going to lose every swing state.

gumbyandpokey on September 25, 2012 at 10:47 AM

pollercoaster panic thread…yay!

workingclass artist on September 25, 2012 at 10:47 AM

I think you mean 28% independent in Ohio in 2010; that’s 110% percent…

oddball on September 25, 2012 at 10:48 AM

If the voter-turnout model were adjusted to reflect the awesomeness of Romney he would be up by 100% or probably more as the heavenly choir eternal itself would cast its ballots in his favour. The support for the former financier single-term blue-state governor who gave us RomneyCare would be unanimous if only voters would embrace the radiant light of spectral brilliance that is Willard Mitt Romney.

casuist on September 25, 2012 at 10:48 AM

These polls are bought and paid for by democrats. They are horsecrap.

Unreal. Appearances only. They are shadows. Illusions. Nothing but ghosts of reality. They are lies. Falsehoods. Spectres without body. They are to be ignored.

rollthedice on September 25, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Ed, shouldn’t midterm indie vote be 28%?

herm2416 on September 25, 2012 at 10:48 AM

dang it….

mr cmsinaz becoming a debbie downer, he truly thinks obama is going to win this….

cmsinaz on September 25, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Run around in circles while screaming! Hurry!

Bishop on September 25, 2012 at 10:49 AM

You know what??? After seeing the tepid commercials the Romney campaign has put on (McCain’s WERE BETTER) if he loses, he has only himself and his awful staff to blame. We out here are doing all we can do to sway people – but the Obama message has connected. A republican woman I know has totally bought into the war on women and will vote for Obama -

djl130 on September 25, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Getting burnt out on all the polls. Especially ones that show Obama leading.

Jack_Burton on September 25, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Florida was supposed to be a lock for Romney when campaign season began. If he’s having trouble there, he’s going to lose every swing state.

gumbyandpokey on September 25, 2012 at 10:47 AM

Romney’s going to win Florida. Obama is doing horribly with seniors and has lost around 7 points with Jewish voters. That alone will cost him the state.

O-I-H-O is honestly the only state that really concerns me. I think Romney can win it, but he better understand that unless he’s gonna pick of Wisconsin and Colorado, the election will likely come down to that state(and maybe Virginia). Obama is gonna pour all of his resources into winning there because he knows how much harder Romney’s pathway to victory is without it.

Doughboy on September 25, 2012 at 10:51 AM

You know what??? After seeing the tepid commercials the Romney campaign has put on (McCain’s WERE BETTER) if he loses, he has only himself and his awful staff to blame. We out here are doing all we can do to sway people – but the Obama message has connected. A republican woman I know has totally bought into the war on women and will vote for Obama -

djl130 on September 25, 2012 at 10:49 AM

No, I don’t think “we” are doing all we can to sway people.

And that allegedly Republican woman is a moron…there’s no helping that.

changer1701 on September 25, 2012 at 10:51 AM


Florida was supposed to be a lock for Romney when campaign season began. If he’s having trouble there, he’s going to lose every swing state.

Yes, and Team Romney will argue that they wanted to lose the swing states. It was all a part of a plan too awesome in its subtlety for grosser minds to apprehend and stuff. Go Mitt, go! I just wish you weren’t dragging the whole GOP down with you.

casuist on September 25, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Good news: I heard an analyst on TV the other day say that if the polls are showing Obama with a four point lead, that really means that Romney has a five point lead.

Bad news: The analyst was Dick Morris.

YYZ on September 25, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Meaningless. I’ll wait for the November 6th poll if you don’t mind.

Bitter Clinger on September 25, 2012 at 10:46 AM

This.

In the meantime, keep your heads down and volunteer locally to drive folks to the polls, knock on doors and man the phone banks. Get er’ done and we’ll win this damn thing.

BacaDog on September 25, 2012 at 10:52 AM

The actual elections results would be the independents vote +/-2 points… Since Romney is winning the independents in almost very poll then he is going to win the elections…

mnjg on September 25, 2012 at 10:53 AM

You know what??? After seeing the tepid commercials the Romney campaign has put on (McCain’s WERE BETTER) if he loses, he has only himself and his awful staff to blame. We out here are doing all we can do to sway people – but the Obama message has connected. A republican woman I know has totally bought into the war on women and will vote for Obama -

djl130 on September 25, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Sorry, that woman may be a Republican, but she ain’t a conservative. What the hell does the even mean, she bought into the war on women? Does she honestly believe Mitt Romney wants to ban contraception? If so, she’s dumb enough to also believe that those wascally Republicans are blocking all of Obama’s jobs bills and preventing the economy from recovering.

Doughboy on September 25, 2012 at 10:53 AM

internals these polls BEFORE screening registered and likely

FL dem +10

Oh dem+9

still skewing total samples. don’t believe it

gerrym51 on September 25, 2012 at 10:54 AM


Obama is doing horribly with seniors and has lost around 7 points with Jewish voters.

Yes, because Romney’s support among elderly voters has soared to a 4 point lead from a 20 point lead and … oh, wait, that’s not good. See: Election 2012: Romney Losing Support Among Senior Citizens. Do you want to know why Team Romney is in a free-fall? The answer can be found in the support of 2 critical demographic categories that Romney is losing: The elderly, and white working class voters.

casuist on September 25, 2012 at 10:55 AM

rob verdi on September 25, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Goat? Think big. Elephants.. dinosaurs…

antisocial on September 25, 2012 at 10:55 AM

Have you ever seen the mouth breathing, slack jawed, sloping forehead cretins that frequent Columbus during any “The Ohio State University” events.

Enough said.

acyl72 on September 25, 2012 at 10:56 AM

These polls are bought and paid for by democrats. They are horsecrap.
Unreal. Appearances only. They are shadows. Illusions. Nothing but ghosts of reality. They are lies. Falsehoods. Spectres without body. They are to be ignored.*
rollthedice on September 25, 2012 at 10:48 AM

*Except when they say what we want to hear.

FIFY

Boomer_Sooner on September 25, 2012 at 10:56 AM

Sure.

And right now he is still linking the deaths of our countrymen to a meaningless video that was used as a strawman by AQ for their murders.

In the process, Mr. Obama has uncovered the foolish, knavish, dangerous way he and Mrs. Clinton have run our foreign policy. We are much less safe today for it. No ex post facto speech can change that or cover the truth.

He has also revealed a unique distaste for free-speech which seems to only apply in certain circumstances he deems worthy of attention or better yet, demagoguery.

Clearly, Mr. Obama is the most destructive President this nation has ever elected.

Marcus Traianus on September 25, 2012 at 10:57 AM

OT: Dear Leader still thinks the faux movie trailer was the cause of of the ME unrest…John Bolton calls him the moral equivalence POTUS…

d1carter on September 25, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Yes, because Romney’s support among elderly voters has soared to a 4 point lead from a 20 point lead and … oh, wait, that’s not good. See: Election 2012: Romney Losing Support Among Senior Citizens. Do you want to know why Team Romney is in a free-fall? The answer can be found in the support of 2 critical demographic categories that Romney is losing: The elderly, and white working class voters.

casuist on September 25, 2012 at 10:55 AM

I think we’ve had our fill of musings from the ABR peanut gallery. Thanks though.

changer1701 on September 25, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Whatever happened to the imminent Romney Ad blitz?

antisocial on September 25, 2012 at 10:58 AM

This is one of the most critical elections of our time. Well, come November 6, we are going to find out if we are still a nation that loves liberty and freedom or a nation of fricking morons who think that the government is going to solve all of our problems, wipe our noses when we are sick, and pat us on the head when we are sad. I want to say that our nation is better than that, but I look at the trolls who come over here and ask myself if a freedom loving nation could ever spawn such government loving morons.

The polls and pollsters are doing their best to influence opinion and suppress conservative turnout, the MSM is doing its best, serving as the media arm of the DNC to get Obama re-elected, and the Romney campaign is not using the same scorched earth tactics against Obama that it had no problem using against fellow Republicans during the primaries.

AZfederalist on September 25, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Bad news: The analyst was Dick Morris.

Dick Morris is a scum self promoter.

BUT

until we get an election that proves different 2 adages he is correct on.

an incumbent is likely to lose if not over 50 percent
and last minute voters go to challenger 75-25.

so it all depends on what polls you believe.

gerrym51 on September 25, 2012 at 10:59 AM

The sample for Ohio is clearly off base so that’s not much to worry about. But the Florida sample seems pretty right on. That Florida poll is not good at all. Rubio needs to be pounding the pavement to bring this home for us. I know he can deliver!

dczombie on September 25, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Slightly OT, but Romney really gave an excellent speech this morning at the Clinton Global Initiative conference.

I wonder what SCoAMF is going to say at the UN. More of the same weak tea, I presume.

UltimateBob on September 25, 2012 at 11:00 AM

The MSM is desperate for another 4 years of Obama…..

The only way the MSM survives is for Obama to nationalize the commercial media,
so they don’t have to be bothered with trying to make money by running commercials….

It will be Obama 24/7/36 on your state run media….

If Romney wins the MSM won’t get a bailout and the large newspapers will be
gone by 2016…..

redguy on September 25, 2012 at 11:00 AM

By the way, Ed.

Kasich will peak in popularity right around the election. So will Romney. The result? This election will look much more like the 2010 turnout models.

People have had enough. Especially the good people of Ohio who have suffered enough under this President.

Marcus Traianus on September 25, 2012 at 11:00 AM

This should make Bill Kristol and Peggy Noonan happy. You know they–and the other members of the so-called “friendly” fire crew–are just itching to shout “I told you so!”

Attention wh*res, the lot of them.

Meredith on September 25, 2012 at 11:01 AM


Whatever happened to the imminent Romney Ad blitz?

I know, right? Where’s that death star thing and all? Romney left the building weeks ago. If only he had bothered to tell someone.

casuist on September 25, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Have you ever seen the mouth breathing, slack jawed, sloping forehead cretins that frequent Columbus during any “The Ohio State University” events.

my daughters and sons-in-law went to Ohio state.

other than them i agree with you.

lol

gerrym51 on September 25, 2012 at 11:01 AM


He has also revealed a unique distaste for free-speech which seems to only apply in certain circumstances he deems worthy of attention or better yet, demagoguery.

Yes, and you would think that Team Romney would be able to capitalize on all of this. You would be wrong.

casuist on September 25, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Just from a registration standpoint in Florida, Republicans have closed the gap by aprox 240000 from 2008 in a race that was decided by 200-300k. Heck, in the last two weeks I’ve gotten 20 people registered.

brut4ce on September 25, 2012 at 11:03 AM

“The sample for Ohio is clearly off base so that’s not much to worry about. But the Florida sample seems pretty right”

Even if you take a few pts off the Dem partisan advantage in OH, Obama is still winning there.

And if Romney is down that much in Florida, he’s down 5-6 in Ohio and Virginia.

I’d start to watch NC more and more now. If the race is breaking open for Obama, NC might follow.

gumbyandpokey on September 25, 2012 at 11:04 AM

I know, right? Where’s that death star thing and all? Romney left the building weeks ago. If only he had bothered to tell someone.

casuist on September 25, 2012 at 11:01 AM

You claim to be a conservative but you are adding nothing positive… It is very clear that you want Obama to win the elections… Well it is not going to happen…

mnjg on September 25, 2012 at 11:04 AM

This should make Bill Kristol and Peggy Noonan happy. You know they–and the other members of the so-called “friendly” fire crew–are just itching to shout “I told you so!”

Attention wh*res, the lot of them.

Meredith on September 25, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Lots of those posting here, as well. They’re more interested in saying I told you so than beating Obama.

changer1701 on September 25, 2012 at 11:04 AM

The Left will have to go with a D+30 poll soon.

Landslide!!!!

faraway on September 25, 2012 at 11:05 AM

gumbyandpokey on September 25, 2012 at 11:04 AM

Are you also taking into account how heavil weighted those polls are in turns of Democratic participants?

Of course not. You’re simply here to discourage.

kingsjester on September 25, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Even if you take a few pts off the Dem partisan advantage in OH, Obama is still winning there.

And if Romney is down that much in Florida, he’s down 5-6 in Ohio and Virginia.

I’d start to watch NC more and more now. If the race is breaking open for Obama, NC might follow.

gumbyandpokey on September 25, 2012 at 11:04 AM

It’s an Obama landslide, so of course NC will follow. Then IN, then who knows what other state. That’s what you’ve been jumping on EVERY SINGLE polling thread to spout, right?

I’ve asked before if you’re a Romney voter and you never answered, so your true purpose here is clear.

changer1701 on September 25, 2012 at 11:07 AM

an incumbent is likely to lose if not over 50 percent

A corollary to this is that the incumbent (or the challenger, for that matter) does not need to be at 50 percent of the vote to be a clear favorite to win: the eventual winner will probably pick up at least some undecided voters, and at least a few votes will go to third-party candidates. Mr. Obama’s current number in the polls — about 48 or 49 percent on average in national surveys — is very similar to those of George W. Bush in 2004, George H.W. Bush in 1988, and Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944, all of whom won, some of them easily.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/24/the-statistical-state-of-the-presidential-race/?gwh=D542E82ABDBDDFB912B96F0D73E8DF6C

libfreeordie on September 25, 2012 at 11:07 AM

Uh oh. Looks like some of us may have to vote to decide this election.

de rigueur on September 25, 2012 at 11:07 AM


You claim to be a conservative but you are adding nothing positive… It is very clear that you want Obama to win the elections…

Yes, were Romney a conservative with a conservative record of governance your argument would follow. What was it Kissinger once said about the Iran-Iraq war? It’s a shame they can’t both lose.

casuist on September 25, 2012 at 11:08 AM

I have to admit that just once I would like to wake up to good news regarding Romney. I just can’t believe Americans want to stick with Obama. If Obama does win heaven help us all…

sandee on September 25, 2012 at 11:10 AM

Free stuff. Doesn’t cost a thing. What’s not to like?

a capella on September 25, 2012 at 11:10 AM

At some point the RNC and the Super-PACs (Rove, Adelson etc) will have to make a decision. Are they going to keep investing in Romney’s campaign, or to switch to the Congressional candidates in the vulnerable districts?

The Senate races in MT, ND, AZ, NV can sure use some RNC cash, and all of these seats are very close. And perhaps WI and VA can be flipped, though it looks like an uphill climb at this point. At some point the money should go there, instead of more lame Romney commercials.

buridan on September 25, 2012 at 11:10 AM

The trouble with trolls is that it really makes the whole discussion painfully boring. As soon as I see certain names, I just go somewhere else. I don’t understand why people respond to them, unless there is some sort of game going on. Or maybe it is supposed to be this way. Can anyone explain it to me?

Paddington on September 25, 2012 at 11:10 AM

Simple rule: if Romney is winning independents, he’s winning.

TallDave on September 25, 2012 at 11:11 AM

The sample for Ohio is clearly off base so that’s not much to worry about. But the Florida sample seems pretty right”

Even if you take a few pts off the Dem partisan advantage in OH, Obama is still winning there.

And if Romney is down that much in Florida, he’s down 5-6 in Ohio and Virginia.

I’d start to watch NC more and more now. If the race is breaking open for Obama, NC might follow.

gumbyandpokey on September 25, 2012 at 11:04 AM

Liberal idiot. I recalculated Ohio numbers with D=35, R=35, I=30 and the result is Obama 48.5%, Romney 47.7%… This party ID breakdown is much more likely on November 6 2012 than the very biased party ID breakdown in this poll and many other polls…

mnjg on September 25, 2012 at 11:11 AM

Yes, were Romney a conservative with a conservative record of governance your argument would follow. What was it Kissinger once said about the Iran-Iraq war? It’s a shame they can’t both lose.

casuist on September 25, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Interesting that you did not deny that you want Obama to win… Well he is not going to win…

mnjg on September 25, 2012 at 11:12 AM

What I meant was, if it is how it is supposed to be, that’s fine, as long as one knows that is the case.

Paddington on September 25, 2012 at 11:12 AM

gumbyandpokey on September 25, 2012

…someone was just looking for a goat! ^^^I hear one bleating again!

KOOLAID2 on September 25, 2012 at 11:13 AM

The trouble with trolls is that it really makes the whole discussion painfully boring. As soon as I see certain names, I just go somewhere else. I don’t understand why people respond to them, unless there is some sort of game going on. Or maybe it is supposed to be this way. Can anyone explain it to me?

Paddington on September 25, 2012 at 11:10 AM

They deserve to be called out. Gumby, for example, trolls polling threads simply to discourage and demoralize, and that should be noted. Same with the ABR crowd that wants to see Obama win.

changer1701 on September 25, 2012 at 11:13 AM

I recall 32 years ago, when every media outlet back then was telling us “that old man can’t win”. Same thing. Only now, our information comes straight to us, bypassing the Liberal gatekeepers in the MSM, and we can decide for ourselves to tune out Liberal discouragers,as you see on this thread.

kingsjester on September 25, 2012 at 11:13 AM


I’d start to watch NC more and more now. If the race is breaking open for Obama, NC might follow.

You are so behind the curve: Obama Sweep! Now Leads in All Key States, Even N.C., Nevada, Colo. This is from NewsMax–a notorious left-wing source–oh, I mean right-wing–and it’s based on RealClearPolitics polls and poll averages. It was posted 16 hours ago.

casuist on September 25, 2012 at 11:13 AM

buridan on September 25, 2012 at 11:10 AM

Wow dufus…now u r in charge of Romney’s campaign and the RNC? Maybe u should run for President, genius.

gracie on September 25, 2012 at 11:13 AM

Unreal. Appearances only. They are shadows. Illusions. Nothing but ghosts of reality. They are lies. Falsehoods. Spectres without body. They are to be ignored.
rollthedice on September 25, 2012 at 10:48 AM

That only works if your hands are in a mind-meld position

whatcat on September 25, 2012 at 11:13 AM

The trouble with trolls is that it really makes the whole discussion painfully boring. As soon as I see certain names, I just go somewhere else. I don’t understand why people respond to them, unless there is some sort of game going on. Or maybe it is supposed to be this way. Can anyone explain it to me?

Paddington on September 25, 2012 at 11:10 AM

The simple solution for that is to ban the trolls in particular the very annoying ones…

mnjg on September 25, 2012 at 11:14 AM


Well he is not going to win…

From your mouth to G_d’s great-merciful ear. Greater ironies have befallen us I suppose.

casuist on September 25, 2012 at 11:15 AM

In a rational world made up of intelligent, observant voters, Romney could stay home and win in a landslide. Obama has been a disaster and apparently way too many Americans are way too stupid to understand what has and is happening to us.

The upside is they may get the cool, “eye candy”, “I feel good ’cause I voted for a black man” result they want. The downside is they may get what they are clearly too dumb to comprehend — and they will take the rest of us down with them. Well, when they are living as peasants we can at least say we told them so.

America spirals into the toilet and the leader of the former-greatest-nation-on-earth spends his time on a women’s talk show.

clippermiami on September 25, 2012 at 11:15 AM

casuist on September 25, 2012 at 11:13 AM

So it’s a good day for you then.

Howard Johnson 2012

Bishop on September 25, 2012 at 11:16 AM

RealClearPolitics polls and poll averages
casuist on September 25, 2012 at 11:13 AM

no, you’re the butsky…we already talked about RCP’s o so fine stats.

gracie on September 25, 2012 at 11:16 AM

casuist on September 25, 2012 at 11:13 AM

What is you role here? Do you really believe that you are going to demoralize us and stop us from voting to Romney? Are you that stupid? We are going to go to the polls in numbers never seen before to vote Obama out… You can either join us or can join Obama the socialist anti-American…

mnjg on September 25, 2012 at 11:16 AM

“The sample for Ohio is clearly off base so that’s not much to worry about. But the Florida sample seems pretty right”

Even if you take a few pts off the Dem partisan advantage in OH, Obama is still winning there.

And if Romney is down that much in Florida, he’s down 5-6 in Ohio and Virginia.

I’d start to watch NC more and more now. If the race is breaking open for Obama, NC might follow.

gumbyandpokey on September 25, 2012 at 11:04 AM

Now you’re being an idiot even by your standards. NC was decided by less than 14,000 votes last time. It just voted by a huge margin against gay marriage. And their Democrat governor is incredibly unpopular. And you’d have us believe that Obama is going to hold onto that state?

Doughboy on September 25, 2012 at 11:17 AM

casuist on September 25, 2012 at 11:13 AM

The Primaries are long over. Romney is who we have. If you want the Manchurian President to be in there for 4 more years, that is your choice. However, don’t refer to your self as a Republican or a Conservative.

You can call yourself a Libertarian, a Paulnut, or a Scarborough Fan. At this point, we have to play the cards we are dealt and get that so and so out of OUR house.

kingsjester on September 25, 2012 at 11:17 AM

I live here in southern Ohio. All I can tell you is there isn’t nearly the enthusiasm for Obama as there was in 08. Very few Obama bumper stickers around. The local GOP has made 3x as many contacts as in 08 and is much more organized thanks to the 2010 election. I will be surprised if Obama is able to win Ohio.

Ta111 on September 25, 2012 at 11:18 AM

Whatever happened to the imminent Romney Ad blitz?

antisocial on September 25, 2012 at 10:58 AM

It doesn’t matter. I don’t think ads aren’t going to change anything at this point. The reason Romney is losing is that he wasted an entire summer thinking all he had to do was say 40 months of unemployment over 8%, 23 million Americans unemployed or underemployed, blah, blah, blah so vote for me. He never made the case for himself as president. Even if he wanted to change course right now, which I don’t think he does, it would probably be too late.

Mark1971 on September 25, 2012 at 11:18 AM

In a rational world made up of intelligent, observant voters, Romney could stay home and win in a landslide. Obama has been a disaster and apparently way too many Americans are way too stupid to understand what has and is happening to us.

The upside is they may get the cool, “eye candy”, “I feel good ’cause I voted for a black man” result they want. The downside is they may get what they are clearly too dumb to comprehend — and they will take the rest of us down with them. Well, when they are living as peasants we can at least say we told them so.

America spirals into the toilet and the leader of the former-greatest-nation-on-earth spends his time on a women’s talk show.

clippermiami on September 25, 2012 at 11:15 AM

You hit the nail on the head. This is an electorate that is in love with celebrity, and that more than anything else will explain Obama’s possible re-election.

changer1701 on September 25, 2012 at 11:18 AM

don’t get mad, get out the (registered) voters!

instead of getting worked up over some trolling idiot, take 5 minutes to write a postcard to someone in Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Virginia.

if we get out our vote, they lose. period.

now, back to getting out the message to new people and vote!!

wholefoodsrepublican on September 25, 2012 at 11:18 AM

You can call yourself a Libertarian, a Paulnut, or a Scarborough Fan. At this point, we have to play the cards we are dealt and get that so and so out of OUR house.

kingsjester on September 25, 2012 at 11:17 AM

Agree totally…

sandee on September 25, 2012 at 11:18 AM

Ruh Roh for Obama.

Gravis Marketing has barry just squeeking out a O+1 in OIHO. Gravis is non partisan, unlike WaPo.

sheikh of thornton on September 25, 2012 at 11:19 AM

http://www.unskewedpolls.com/

davidk on September 25, 2012 at 11:19 AM

Mitt = Toast.

NFL Replacement Refs 21 GOP Campaign Geniuses 0

Bruno Strozek on September 25, 2012 at 11:19 AM


So it’s a good day for you then.

This day is just a day, a day when the GOP’s failure at its primary task of selecting competitive candidates bears its bitter fruit in the person of Willard Mitt Romney, a man who isn’t even competitive in his own state as he would never have won re-election as governor. He has no message. He connects with precisely no one as his personal story is remote from that of most Americans. So he has no natural base of support.

A good day is a day with the kids.

casuist on September 25, 2012 at 11:19 AM

Well, just to cheer you up, I have no doubt that Romney will win PA, and it will be cheat-proof. They seem to be doing exactly what needs to be done. Probably the people running the show reflect the competence of the candidate. That is true in both cases.

Paddington on September 25, 2012 at 11:19 AM

The trouble with trolls is that it really makes the whole discussion painfully boring. As soon as I see certain names, I just go somewhere else. I don’t understand why people respond to them, unless there is some sort of game going on. Or maybe it is supposed to be this way. Can anyone explain it to me?

Paddington on September 25, 2012 at 11:10 AM

There are certain names that you just scroll past. If one of the trolls says something particularly egregious, one or two posts slapping it down are warranted; anymore and you are just feeding the troll.

After a certain number of those posts, you scroll past the troll and troll-response posts.

AZfederalist on September 25, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Mark1971 on September 25, 2012 at 11:18 AM

Cheer up and do not let biased polls oversampling democrats get into you. Make sure that you and vote and ask those who you know to vote for Romney… We are going to win this thing…

mnjg on September 25, 2012 at 11:21 AM

When will you all realize that Mitt Romney is unlikeable and untrustworthy to be President? Yes people don’t have to like their president but that does not matter. Obama is HORRIBLE (well over his head like the NFL replacement officials), the economy is worsening, foreign policy in flame but most Americans still trust him more than Mitt Romney….Because Romney comes out as a rich out of touch opportunist that believes on anything. People don’t connect with Romney and don’t think he will do any better than Obama anyway…So they rather stay with the guy they at least like and find to be cool. It will get worse during the debates because Romney will come out as a bickering arrogant rich guy nobody identifies with.

Let’s face it: The RINO Establishments always find a way to screw conservatives by nominating a moderate candidate. They did it with Bob Dole, John McCain and now Romney (the worse of all). Mitt Romney is so bad that he may cause the GOP to lose the House!
Instead of whining about the sampling of polls (when was the last time Republicans outnumbered Democrats on a Presidential election year?), conservatives should start the revolution to clean the Republican Party from the RINOs…

The problem isn’t the lame media or pollsters, Mitt Romney just isn’t likeable enough to be President, period.

jules on September 25, 2012 at 11:21 AM

So why are people in Ohio so damned stupid?

Happy Nomad on September 25, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Blame Kasich.

I know Boehner likes to says it’s because Kasich has done a good job with the economy, but last week’s state unemployment showed stagnation at best with some seriously near-term problems.

So, it’s not that the local economy is great.

Romney can’t get those people to hear him out, because it’s the exact same message Kasich used to win in ’10.

Kasich pi$$ed a lot of people off with 2B5. People who would normally consider Republican, are not, because they look at how Kasich sold himself and then what he did the minute he got it in was go after the entire public sector.

Right or wrong, the ripple effect has undercut Romney.

Then you have the fact Romney has all but disappeared from the Northeastern part of the state.

Combined with a disorganized ground game.

Plus the massive divisions with the state GOP. Mike DeWine sold Romney out for Santo, plus his brother(?) was knocked of the head party position after Kasich called him out for trying to undercut his administration.

So Kasich has been in survival mode for over a year, which is why he talks about “bipartisan” solutions at every step.

Romney’s only chance was to do what Kasich didn’t, and get specific about policies. By not doing that, he was building a massive wall of distrust. Ryan could have REsolved that, but Team Mitt is too concerned with not having all the data yet, so they shut him up.

Odds of Romnay carrying OH, now tops at 45%.

The state economy is going to falter right after the election, maybe next spring, and typical Ohioans will start crying about how 0 sux and they should have voted for the other guy.

budfox on September 25, 2012 at 11:21 AM

Ohio + COAL = Romney win.

Forget the War on Women, there’s a serious War on Coal going on.

MaggiePoo on September 25, 2012 at 11:21 AM

“Ruh Roh for Obama.

Gravis Marketing has barry just squeeking out a O+1 in OIHO. Gravis is non partisan, unlike WaPo.”

Is that the old Gravis Marketing poll? Which is more recent, that or ABC/Wash Post?

gumbyandpokey on September 25, 2012 at 11:21 AM

don’t get mad, get out the (registered) voters!

instead of getting worked up over some trolling idiot, take 5 minutes to write a postcard to someone in Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Virginia.

if we get out our vote, they lose. period.

now, back to getting out the message to new people and vote!!

wholefoodsrepublican on September 25, 2012 at 11:18 AM

Exactly.

changer1701 on September 25, 2012 at 11:21 AM

I guess the phony polls are ‘evolving’. Two weeks ago it was ‘blunder’, then last week it was ‘parity’, now it’s pulling ahead’, next week will be ‘surge’, The whole contrived arc of phony headlines building to the election. Dewey beats Truman. It Has Been Written (on some Journo-Lister’s whiteboard).

/spit

rayra on September 25, 2012 at 11:22 AM

He connects with precisely no one as his personal story is remote from that of most Americans. So he has no natural base of support.

An incompetent Kenyan Muslim connects with Americans?

sheikh of thornton on September 25, 2012 at 11:22 AM

I recall 32 years ago, when every media outlet back then was telling us “that old man can’t win”. Same thing. Only now, our information comes straight to us, bypassing the Liberal gatekeepers in the MSM, and we can decide for ourselves to tune out Liberal discouragers,as you see on this thread.

kingsjester on September 25, 2012 at 11:13 AM

Than your memory isn’t very good. Reagan was leading national polls at this point in 1980.

libfreeordie on September 25, 2012 at 11:22 AM

I live here in southern Ohio. All I can tell you is there isn’t nearly the enthusiasm for Obama as there was in 08. Very few Obama bumper stickers around. The local GOP has made 3x as many contacts as in 08 and is much more organized thanks to the 2010 election. I will be surprised if Obama is able to win Ohio.

Ta111 on September 25, 2012 at 11:18 AM

Obama and his media and their biased polls are going to be shocked on November 6 2012 when they find themselves losing very badly…

mnjg on September 25, 2012 at 11:23 AM

Dumbo and Pokemon shows up. Must be a Demoncrat cause he obviously is not working.

Libtard for life posts something from NYT? yeah, they are really believeable.

Kasich has a 52% approval rating according to the Ohio Newspaper poll.

anchorman on September 25, 2012 at 11:23 AM

I have to admit that just once I would like to wake up to good news regarding Romney. I just can’t believe Americans want to stick with Obama. If Obama does win heaven help us all…

sandee on September 25, 2012 at 11:10 AM

If he gets in again, you’ll know that the Book of Revelation is true. ;-)

tdpwells on September 25, 2012 at 11:23 AM

That only works if your hands are in a mind-meld position

whatcat on September 25, 2012 at 11:13 AM

I wish I could. I really do.

rollthedice on September 25, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Reagan was not leading douche bag. He was down by 6-7pts a week before the election. Get off mommy’s computer and go back to watching Sesame Street.

anchorman on September 25, 2012 at 11:24 AM

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