Politico-GWU poll: Race still a virtual dead heat

posted at 9:21 am on September 24, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Politico headlines their analysis of their latest Battleground Poll with GWU by claiming that “President Obama pulls ahead of Mitt Romney,” but only within the margin of error.  At 50/47 among likely voters, it’s mildly good news for Obama, especially by reaching the 50% mark that had eluded him in previous iterations of the poll.  However, in a sample of just over 800 likely voters in a national poll, the survey confirms that the race is more or less static heading into the debates:

President Barack Obama has opened a national lead in a tight race that’s been static for much of the year.

A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll of likely voters finds little good news for Mitt Romney but a race that remains competitive.

Obama leads 50 percent to 47 percent, which is within the margin of error. His 50 percent job approval rating puts him at a crucial threshold for an incumbent seeking reelection. It’s an uptick from the spring and summer, but 48 percent still disapprove.

Romney, meanwhile, finds himself sliding in the wake of two events — the choice of his running mate and the Republican national convention — that were supposed to buoy his candidacy. His unfavorable rating ticked up from 46 percent to 49 percent over the past seven weeks, as the share viewing him favorably held steady at 46 percent. Personal likability boosts the president, who is viewed favorably by 53 percent.

The survey was conducted by a bipartisan team of pollsters, with widely divergent views of the data.  Democratic pollster Celinda Lake pointed to the favorability change and claimed Romney is “in deep, deep trouble,” which is the problem when partisans poll.  A shift from 46% to 49% over seven weeks is statistical noise, within the margin of error and basically meaningless.

Republican pollster Ed Goeas gives a different take, after noting that the difference between this poll and the BG survey from seven weeks ago was a one-half-percent shift toward Obama:

The past several weeks have been filled with news stories, editorials and columns heaping criticism on the tactics and strategy of the Romney campaign.  Many of these opinion pieces even suggested that Romney’s only hope for winning is to make substantial changes to his campaign.  Much of this analysis is based on the premise that Romney is out of touch and has not been making an affirmative case to middle-class voters. His comments at a private fundraiser in May were pointed to as an illustration that he could never identify with and win the support of many middle-class voters.  We took a special look at middle-class voters, and middle-class families in particular, in this latest POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll and found that not to be the case. In fact, on every measure it is Romney who is winning the battle for the support of middle-class families.

Overall, Obama leads Romney by just 3 points on the ballot (50 percent to 47 percent) – which before we rounded up, is actually a 2.6 point lead and only up a half-a-percentage point from the 2.1 point lead for Obama in our last Battleground poll in early August.  In our latest POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll with middle-class families, which comprise about 54 percent of the total American electorate and usually split in their vote behavior between Republicans and Democrats, Romney holds a 14-point advantage (55 percent to 41 percent).  Middle-class families are more inclined to believe the country is on the wrong track (34 percent right direction, 62 percent wrong track), are more likely to hold an unfavorable view of Obama (48 percent favorable, 51 percent unfavorable), and hold a more favorable view of Romney (51 percent favorable, 44 percent unfavorable) and Paul Ryan (46 percent favorable, 35 percent unfavorable) than the overall electorate.  These middle-class families also hold a majority disapproval rating on the job Obama is doing as president (45 percent approve, 54 percent disapprove), and turn even more negative toward  Obama on specific areas; the economy 56 percent disapprove; spending 61 percent disapprove; taxes, 53 percent disapprove; Medicare 48 percent disapprove; and even foreign policy 50 percent disapprove.

All of this data make clear that Romney has won the strong support of middle-class families and is leading the president on an overwhelming majority of key measurements beyond just the ballot.  In fact, when respondents were asked who, Obama or Romney, would best handle a variety of issues, Romney led on all but one including the economy (+9 percent), foreign policy (+3 percent), spending (+15 percent), taxes (+7 percent), Medicare (+2 percent), and jobs (+10 percent).  Ironically, the one measurement Obama led Romney on was “standing up for the middle class” (+8 Obama), reinforcing that often the Democrats win the message war with the middle class, but not their hearts and souls.

For those wondering, the sample in this poll is actually pretty decent.  The D/R/I is 34/31/33 without leaners, 43/40/15 with leaners.  That’s a defensible turnout model for the election; D+3 would be just about in the middle from 2008′s D+7 and 2010′s even turnout.

Otherwise, there are a few interesting points from the extensive internals published from the survey.  First, Romney is leading by 2 among independents, 46/44, which Obama won by 8 in 2008.  The gender gap favored Obama by 14 in his last election (+13 among women, +1 among men), but he’s down to a +4 in this poll; Romney wins men by 6, 51/45, while Obama wins women by 10, 53/43.  Romney wins married voters by 14 points, 55/41, and wins married women by five at 51/46, but trails among the single and divorced in both genders by wide margins.  Romney is doing better in McCain states from 2008 (60/37) than Obama is in states he won in 2008 (54/42).  Romney’s also winning ticket splitters by 10, 48/38.

One more data point: Despite a poll that came out last week, this survey shows Romney winning the Catholic vote by eight points, 51/43, but the Baptist vote by only one point, 49/48.  The Catholic vote has been a pretty clear bellwether in American elections over the last several decades.  If Obama is losing independents and Catholics and is only down to a +4 gender gap, the road to victory looks pretty narrow indeed.


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Lost cause with pokeme and I think the other guy is just plain stupid.

VegasRick on September 24, 2012 at 10:23 AM

You’re right, I shouldn’t bother.. I just fail to see why some personality types get a woody from standing on the other side of a fence and taunting folks for no good reason.

and frankly, I see few trolls that aren’t just plain stupid.

The sad thing is, I’ve had liberal friends, and can just debate on governing philosophies.. but most every contrary opinion here, is just out to hurt and insult.

mark81150 on September 24, 2012 at 10:32 AM

A poll of 800 with an electorate of 80 million…I know Romney has this after watching the Sunday shows. The media is in overdrive. They wouldn’t be if they didn’t have to be. And watching Joe Scarborough blow a gasket after Bay Buchanan lumped him in with the rest of the liberals on that panel was hilarious.

DanMan on September 24, 2012 at 10:32 AM

mnjg on September 24, 2012 at 9:52 AM

When adjusting most polls to have it as democrats 2 points over Republicans and assign the undecided by 2:1 ratio to Romney over Obama then Romney is winning on average of 3 points…

mnjg on September 24, 2012 at 10:20 AM

kevinkristy on September 24, 2012 at 10:14 AM

It’s quite interesting that both of your very different approaches are reaching the same basic results. The corroboration is remarkable.

That said, realistically I suspect that Romney’s margin is even higher, probably in the 6-7 range, but that’s because of the problem with polling in general, not your analyses — it relies on what people are telling you about their opinions in the first place, and people aren’t always truthful to strangers about same.

TXUS on September 24, 2012 at 10:33 AM

Pragmatic on September 24, 2012

Tokyo Rose called. She said you suck at this, even worse than Kunta Kinte.

CurtZHP on September 24, 2012 at 10:33 AM

“If you are, in fact, Republican, why would that make you LOL!?”

Why?

Because I said at the time that MI was not in play and was called a troll, Obama supporter, etc. Every single friggin’ election season, fools say either MI or NJ or PA is in play, and it breaks for the Dem EVERY SINGLE TIME. A Republican has zero chance in any of those states.

This stuff isn’t that hard to grasp. You have to be delusional to believe otherwise.

Romney has to win OH, VA and FL. Those are musts. Then take a state like NH, CO or IA. That’s the only way he could theoretically win.

gumbyandpokey on September 24, 2012 at 10:34 AM

The fact of the matter is that Romney has no chance if people don’t feel he has a chance. People will break at the end to vote for the winner and join the bandwagon. And if you look on Intrade, virtually nobody thinks Romney is going to win.

gumbyandpokey on September 24, 2012 at 10:20 AM

.
For the casual reader on this site, the Democratic trolls are counting on their ignorance being contagious (last I checked, humans are NOT lemmings) and believe telling the Big Lie is a certain path to success (hey, it worked out great for the Nazi’s didn’t it?)

On the other hand, if you are reading comments on Hot Air, YOU do not fit their “Low Info” voter demographic and would probably be interested in the following article regarding the InTrade data being mentioned by the troll.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/presenting-president-inflation

InTrade, like any other “low dollar, low volume” equity is easily subject to manipulation … kind of like a certain SCOAMF who has 2 million REAL twitter followers and 17 million FAKE twitter followers paid for by David Axelrod.

PolAgnostic on September 24, 2012 at 10:36 AM

Amjean on September 24, 2012 at 10:30 AM

Amjean, what part of the country do you operate in that people don’t know negatives about Obama? This fascinates me.

DanMan on September 24, 2012 at 10:36 AM

“That said, realistically I suspect that Romney’s margin is even higher, probably in the 6-7 range”

That’s why I LOL at people here. There is NO WAY that Romney is ahead by 6-7 pts. This is like a comedy routine here. And Obama will win by a few pts, and everyone will be crying that they don’t know how he could have won when the polls (RCP average) was telling you exactly what would happen all along but partisans just didn’t want to believe it.

gumbyandpokey on September 24, 2012 at 10:37 AM

I needed this poll update, Ed.

I made dumb the mistake of watching Meet the Press last night, which was nothing more than a full court bash Romney fest, with even “conservative” Joe Scarborough kicking Romney with both feet.

In a week where Obama’s state department was caught flat out lying to the American people about a Lybian terrorist attack which killed the first American ambassador since the Carter era, the primary topic on Meet the Press was why Romney hates half the country, including widows, orphans and war veterans.

It’s like Paul Ryan said, with republicans like these, who needs democratic opposition?

Cavalry on September 24, 2012 at 9:41 AM

Wasn’t that terrible? They also knocked around loopy old Bay Buchanan who was going on and on about something or another.

Punchenko on September 24, 2012 at 10:38 AM

mnjg is having math problems, so let me help.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baptists_in_the_United_States

Approx 38.3 million total Baptists in the US.

Of those…
- approx 14.7 million are part of various African American groups
- approx. 16.3 million are part of the Southern Baptist group

faraway on September 24, 2012 at 10:40 AM

gumbyandpokey on September 24, 2012 at 10:34 AM

I’m not talking about any one piece of information. I am talking about your attitude that it is more important for you to be correct than it is to you that Obama is removed from the White House. I don’t think you are an Obama supporter, I think you are interested only in yourself, and whether your opinions are justified in the end. You may end up being correct, but you aren’t much of an American, in my opinion.

Night Owl on September 24, 2012 at 10:41 AM

2. There is no McCain voter that is voting for Obama.

M240H on September 24, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Worth repeating. Obama hasn’t gained any voters. Some ’08 Obama voters will vote for Romney, but many will just stay home. He didn’t win by a big enough margin last time to overcome this. One and Done.

txhsmom on September 24, 2012 at 10:41 AM

The media is in overdrive. They wouldn’t be if they didn’t have to be. And watching Joe Scarborough blow a gasket after Bay Buchanan lumped him in with the rest of the liberals on that panel was hilarious.

DanMan on September 24, 2012 at 10:32 AM

Yeah, he sputters real funny. I thought he would start yelling “Reagan and Thatcher! Reagan and Thatcher!” like he does on Morning Joe. Ms. Buchanan was a passionate, full-throated advocate for Mitt Romney, but sorely (& predictably) outnumbered.

Ladysmith CulchaVulcha on September 24, 2012 at 10:41 AM

According to this poll. Obama’s lead in August was 2.1. Now it is 2.6 (which they rounded up to 3).

So Obama gain is exactly a half of a point (after the DNC bounce, 47% video, etc), and Politco is orgasmic?

This is pure Soviet Style propaganda.

kevinkristy on September 24, 2012 at 10:41 AM

Actually, those numbers only include ‘members’. They don’t include people that visit regularly, and are not ‘members’.

faraway on September 24, 2012 at 10:42 AM

Punchenko on September 24, 2012 at 10:38 AM

I guess we see what we want to see. Joe came out of his skin to defend his conservative bonafides. You saw how he tied himself to David Brookes for cover. Very funny stuff.

DanMan on September 24, 2012 at 10:43 AM

And if you look on Intrade, virtually nobody thinks Romney is going to win.

gumbyandpokey on September 24, 2012 at 10:20 AM

so what was the betting in 94?…….

They had no clue, anywhere in the establishment liberal media polling.. or elsewhere, that the GOP would kick the democrat dynasty out of the House for the first time in 60 years..

You put too much faith in what OTHER people tell you.. which might be OK, if you aren’t listening to the wrong ones.. A lot of the hedge fund types, and wall streeters are staunch democrats.. they gave much more to Obama than McCain.. so what the investment jocks like or dislike is not terribly important to what regular folks will do.. most have never heard of intrade, or care.. but they do know a skunk in the White House, and will react to that..

I remember the astonishment in the establisment media when Reagan curb stomped Carter.. completely gobsmacked… why.. why.. why..THAT’S IMPOSSIBLE?…

this has the same feel to it.

All the same signs of hubris are there.

mark81150 on September 24, 2012 at 10:44 AM

…but sorely (& predictably) outnumbered.

Ladysmith CulchaVulcha on September 24, 2012 at 10:41 AM

They choose the guests and they are showing desperation trying to balance the liberals with other liberals and calling them conservatives. It was like watching a Bill Maher discussion.

They lie to themselves for themselves.

DanMan on September 24, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Looks like Obama’s not getting the wildlife vote this time around:
Texas ‘Republican deer’ destroyed Obama yard signs

whatcat on September 24, 2012 at 10:48 AM

“I don’t think you are an Obama supporter,”

I’m not. You will not find me defending/championing one policy decision of his.

I’m just so sick and tired of this non-stop poll bashing and denying. The same thing happened in 08 and I cannot figure out why people didn’t learn their lesson. The RCP average is golden.

Maybe I’ll be wrong and nearly every single poll has been manipulated to show Romney losing. But I don’t think I am and will continue to call people out for deluding themselves into thinking otherwise.

Mitt is down 3 among likely voters and a decent sample is used and somehow, someway this is good news? Really? It just makes no sense to me.

gumbyandpokey on September 24, 2012 at 10:49 AM

They choose the guests and they are showing desperation trying to balance the liberals with other liberals and calling them conservatives. It was like watching a Bill Maher discussion.

They lie to themselves for themselves.

DanMan on September 24, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Shorter verson.

VegasRick on September 24, 2012 at 10:49 AM

DanMan on September 24, 2012 at 10:46 AM

All MTP was missing were the rounded tones of Peggy Noonan.

;)

Ladysmith CulchaVulcha on September 24, 2012 at 10:50 AM

“I remember the astonishment in the establisment media when Reagan curb stomped Carter.. completely gobsmacked… why.. why.. why..THAT’S IMPOSSIBLE?…”

This drives me nuts, too!!!!!!!!!

ONCE AGAIN, REAGAN WAS LEADING CARTER IN MOST POLLS BY THIS TIME IN SEPTEMBER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Romney is leading in NONE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/debunking-a-myth-reagan-was-leading-carter-long-before-that-final-october-debate/

gumbyandpokey on September 24, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Looks like Obama’s not getting the wildlife vote this time around:
Texas ‘Republican deer’ destroyed Obama yard signs

whatcat on September 24, 2012 at 10:48 AM

That was funny, and we can use all the help we can get!

Night Owl on September 24, 2012 at 10:53 AM

We need to be looking at these polls from the swing state of Ohio. It is there and Pennsylvania where the election will turn, if close. Romney needs to be camped in southeastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania and remind coal miners that it is Obama that is shutting down their jobs.

Decoski on September 24, 2012 at 10:53 AM

By the way, what is an “ABR”?

Decoski on September 24, 2012 at 10:54 AM

Okay VegasRick…I’ll grant you context really isn’t important when the evidence is overwhelming isn’t it?

mmm…Peggy Noonan. Is she Maureen Dowd’s life partner now? Prolly wear the same big shoes too.

DanMan on September 24, 2012 at 10:56 AM

I’m just so sick and tired of this non-stop poll bashing and denying. The same thing happened in 08 and I cannot figure out why people didn’t learn their lesson. The RCP average is golden.

Maybe I’ll be wrong and nearly every single poll has been manipulated to show Romney losing. But I don’t think I am and will continue to call people out for deluding themselves into thinking otherwise.

Mitt is down 3 among likely voters and a decent sample is used and somehow, someway this is good news? Really? It just makes no sense to me.

gumbyandpokey on September 24, 2012 at 10:49 AM

So what purpose are you serving by coming on here and letting everyone know how there’s just no way Romney will win, that the polls are right? THAT is what makes no sense to me. If you’ve convinced yourself Romney is losing, fine…keep it to yourself. The rest of us understand that votes still have to be cast and counted, that Romney’s still got a shot.

changer1701 on September 24, 2012 at 10:56 AM

what is an “ABR”?

anybody but Romney, kin to Paulbots

DanMan on September 24, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Amjean, read your enlightening post and I can second your concerns. Most of my friends say very little about the election coming up and they, like me, made our decision the day after the 08 election. We don’t answer political phone calls and trash all political snail mail without opening. I made a horrible mistake last election by donating a very substantial donation to the McCain Palin ticket and for years after, my mail box was full, of every Republican running for office in the USA including sheriffs across the Nation. I realized I was entered on the GOP base for donations. It makes me furious that politicians are deaf until election years.

Here’s a probable reason why. ::::http://www.usa.gov/directory/federal/index.shtml
All Federal, all funded by taxpayers.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congressional_staff
This information is ten years old and likely to be on the plus side of cost. You’ll notice that over eleven thousand staff members are doing the grunt work for the elected representatives that take credit for the work and the reality is we didn’t vote for the staff. This alone is an insult to the intelligence of patriotic voters and a huge clue why a Congressional person makes little sense while being interviewed on TV.

End of rant!

mixplix on September 24, 2012 at 10:59 AM

I know a couple of conservative Baptists who have said they will never vote for a Mormon. Not sure what that’s about. OK it is a slightly odd religion but let’s look at the alternative here…

CorporatePiggy on September 24, 2012 at 11:00 AM

By the way, what is an “ABR”?

Decoski on September 24, 2012 at 10:54 AM

.
Anyone But Romney – usually attributed to be a disillusioned Ron Paul voter. My belief is they are Axel-trolls who register on conservative sites and do everything in their power to paint the Republicans/conservatives as being at each others throats.

David Axelrod invented teh “astro-turfing” concept where he stayed in the background and paid people to pursue his political agendas while claiming to represent a “grassroots movement”.

PolAgnostic on September 24, 2012 at 11:00 AM

We need to be looking at these polls from the swing state of Ohio. It is there and Pennsylvania where the election will turn, if close. Romney needs to be camped in southeastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania and remind coal miners that it is Obama that is shutting down their jobs.

Decoski on September 24, 2012 at 10:53 AM

I’m in western PA, and just this morning I heard one of the Pittsburgh papers put out a new poll that only has Obama up 2. I also heard that the United Mine Workers decided to support Obama after all, even though I heard before that they would not endorse. That is sad, but I don’t think the actual mine workers will be voting for Obama, they are scared to death of his re-election.

Night Owl on September 24, 2012 at 11:00 AM

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baptists_in_the_United_States

Approx 38.3 million total Baptists in the US.

Of those…
- approx 14.7 million are part of various African American groups
- approx. 16.3 million are part of the Southern Baptist group

faraway on September 24, 2012 at 10:40 AM

I got you now… I was reading the number of Southern Baptists and thought it is the total number of Baptists…

mnjg on September 24, 2012 at 11:01 AM

I know a couple of conservative Baptists who have said they will never vote for a Mormon. Not sure what that’s about. OK it is a slightly odd religion but let’s look at the alternative here…

CorporatePiggy on September 24, 2012 at 11:00 AM

.
Please read my earlier post and forward them the YouTube video link by Chuck Norris.

PolAgnostic on September 24, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Wasn’t that terrible? They also knocked around loopy old Bay Buchanan who was going on and on about something or another.

Punchenko on September 24, 2012 at 10:38 AM

“Loopy”?… “old”?

child… she has more things right going on in her head than “Joe”.. and Brooks and the whole rest combined..

and who watches MSNBC?.. the delusional left, and the very few on our team who have to, to see what team stupid is doing these days, since the media has already declared Obama the winner, the TS have to do something to use an hour..

It would seem pretty stupid of them to declare Obama a sure thing, since they need more turn out that 08 to win.. and why should the young and old bother.. Obama has it sewed up..

MSNBC says so..

so just stay home democrats.. no need to bother..

mark81150 on September 24, 2012 at 11:03 AM

gumbyandpokey on September 24, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Your little liberal brain is simply denying the fact that the majority of the polls are insanely oversampling democrats more than what is going to be their actual turnout on November 6 2012…

mnjg on September 24, 2012 at 11:05 AM

I got you now… I was reading the number of Southern Baptists and thought it is the total number of Baptists…

mnjg on September 24, 2012 at 11:01 AM

.
Even the 38 million number is low. There a thousands upon thousands of Baptist churches that are not affiliated with ANY organization.

Our neighbor is a retired Baptist minister. He has provided some interesting insights into the “diversity” of Baptist theological perspectives.

PolAgnostic on September 24, 2012 at 11:06 AM

I guess we see what we want to see. Joe came out of his skin to defend his conservative bonafides. You saw how he tied himself to David Brookes for cover. Very funny stuff.

DanMan on September 24, 2012 at 10:43 AM

.
Anytime someone mentions David Brooks as a “conservative”, I stop them and point out that it is as offensive as using Jim Jones of Guyana/Kool Aid fame as representing Christian values.

PolAgnostic on September 24, 2012 at 11:11 AM

Mitt is down 3 among likely voters and a decent sample is used and somehow, someway this is good news? Really? It just makes no sense to me.

gumbyandpokey on September 24, 2012 at 10:49 AM

So what purpose are you serving by coming on here and letting everyone know how there’s just no way Romney will win, that the polls are right? THAT is what makes no sense to me. If you’ve convinced yourself Romney is losing, fine…keep it to yourself. The rest of us understand that votes still have to be cast and counted, that Romney’s still got a shot.

changer1701 on September 24, 2012 at 10:56 AM

by 3?

and Gumby calls that a certain loss?

The margin of error is 4…on most polls.. so anyone who says they are certain of anything, in poll after poll which shows Mitt ahead on all the reasons why people vote, yet show him up or down by 1, 2, 3….

You have to be completely insane to call any race over when even the disputed polling shows a dead heat.. with Mitt ahead on 4 out of the 5 questions people find most important..

So you take your desire that Mitt should loose, then wrap dead heat polls around it as if that proved anything?

what’s your point?

any poll within 3 is essentially a tie, could go either way,.. yet you give every one to Obama.. how kind of you,

I’m sure Axie will send you a nice fruit basket..

mark81150 on September 24, 2012 at 11:13 AM

CorporatePiggy on September 24, 2012 at 11:00 AM

I know a congregation of Baptists that is at least 50% black and very few are defending Obama. Matter of fact I haven’t heard one yet and there have been many opportunities over the last year. My Southern Baptist church demographics have changed considerably over the years but we are not stupid. My black neighbors say they will not vote for him again. Of course they have jobs too.

DanMan on September 24, 2012 at 11:24 AM

I think we all just need to relax as we ponder Romney’s crashing trendlines among our elderly voters from a 20 to a 4 point lead. Romney is an old person. So why is he scaring the be-jeebers out of them?

casuist on September 24, 2012 at 11:38 AM

I also heard that the United Mine Workers decided to support Obama after all, even though I heard before that they would not endorse. That is sad, but I don’t think the actual mine workers will be voting for Obama, they are scared to death of his re-election.

Night Owl on September 24, 2012 at 11:00 AM

And if you are a mine worker that gets polled, you know you can’t trust that the poller isn’t really associated with union management, so you lie. Lie, lie, lie, lie, lie.

And keep in mind that approx. 90% refuse to be polled and hang up. The polling only works if the 10% that are desperate to feel important by participating in a poll are distributed the same as the 90% that don’t need artificial feelings of importance.

The only poll that matters is the one on November 6th. Wild horses won’t keep me from participating in that one.

Carnac on September 24, 2012 at 11:40 AM

I know a couple of conservative Baptists who have said they will never vote for a Mormon. Not sure what that’s about. OK it is a slightly odd religion but let’s look at the alternative here…

CorporatePiggy on September 24, 2012 at 11:00 AM

Well and he picked Ryan…a staunch conservative Catholic
(Whore of Babylon thingy)

so there’s that.

Despite these polls I think most of them will vote for Romney anyway.

workingclass artist on September 24, 2012 at 11:41 AM

Tied going into the debates huh? You know what I want to hear? I want to hear Mittens say that (in reference to Obama’s “sleep on it” decision on Bin Laden) that when the country needs an answer in the next 16 minutes he won’t give one 16 hours later.

Browncoatone on September 24, 2012 at 11:42 AM

I think we all just need to relax as we ponder Romney’s crashing trendlines among our elderly voters from a 20 to a 4 point lead. Romney is an old person. So why is he scaring the be-jeebers out of them?

casuist on September 24, 2012 at 11:38 AM

Because old people can count. And they realize there’s no way you can get to 47% of the population as government dependent “victims” without including senior citizens on fixed incomes.

libfreeordie on September 24, 2012 at 11:43 AM

I think we all just need to relax as we ponder Romney’s crashing trendlines among our elderly voters from a 20 to a 4 point lead. Romney is an old person. So why is he scaring the be-jeebers out of them?

casuist on September 24, 2012 at 11:38 AM

Most Senior’s don’t know that AARP is a left-wing organization that supported Obamacare because they stand to gain billions from it.

The RNC needs to explain this so as to counter the mailings that the AARP sends to participating Senior’s.

Carnac on September 24, 2012 at 11:46 AM

Because old people can count. And they realize there’s no way you can get to 47% of the population as government dependent “victims” without including senior citizens on fixed incomes bankrupting the country.

libfreeordie on September 24, 2012 at 11:43 AM

There, FIFY livefreeoffothers.

bgibbs1000 on September 24, 2012 at 11:46 AM

Romney has a single digit lead in Nebraska. Holy smokes…..

libfreeordie on September 24, 2012 at 11:47 AM

“any poll within 3 is essentially a tie, could go either way,.. yet you give every one to Obama.. how kind of you,”

If the polls were split between those that showed obama leading and those that showed Romney leading, fine. The problem is that EVERY SINGLE POLL shows Obama ahead, so he is ahead and the race cannot “go either way.”

I’m going to be calling a lot of people out on election night for this foolishness.

gumbyandpokey on September 24, 2012 at 11:49 AM

Most Senior’s don’t know that AARP is a left-wing organization that supported Obamacare because they stand to gain billions from it.

The RNC needs to explain this so as to counter the mailings that the AARP sends to participating Senior’s.

Carnac on September 24, 2012 at 11:46 AM

The RNC won’t even explain the marxist policies of Obama and the democrats, yet you expect them to explain the AARP to seniors?

bgibbs1000 on September 24, 2012 at 11:49 AM

I’m in western PA, and just this morning I heard one of the Pittsburgh papers put out a new poll that only has Obama up 2. I also heard that the United Mine Workers decided to support Obama after all, even though I heard before that they would not endorse. That is sad, but I don’t think the actual mine workers will be voting for Obama, they are scared to death of his re-election.

Night Owl on September 24, 2012 at 11:00 AM

And Rasmussen has Obama up double digits there. And every other poll has Obama up in the high singles, you have *one* poll showing Obama only up two. I suppose statistics does say to take the outlier as the truth. Or wait, does it say the exact opposite of that.

libfreeordie on September 24, 2012 at 11:49 AM

libfreeordie on September 24, 2012 at 11:47 AM

Why are you a Downgrade supporter?

Chip on September 24, 2012 at 11:49 AM

Wow, did everyone here know that at this time in 1980 Reagan was leading Carter by an average of 3.4 in national polls? News to me. Thanks Nate Silver!

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/24/the-statistical-state-of-the-presidential-race/?gwh=567D9AA858EFB539F05B4A18479099BD

libfreeordie on September 24, 2012 at 11:54 AM

The RNC needs to explain this so as to counter the mailings that the AARP sends to participating Senior’s.

Carnac on September 24, 2012 at 11:46 AM

.
I ran my wife through some of the more recent AARP transgressions (like United Way did a while back, the people leading it run it for THEIR benefit) and got her agreement that we will no longer be members of AARP.

PolAgnostic on September 24, 2012 at 11:54 AM

libfreeordie on September 24, 2012 at 11:49 AM

This is after an incessant media barrage where almost everything Romney says is twisted into some sort of ‘gaffe’ or mistake or something.

Why aren’t we hearing about ANY problems within the re-select Downgrade effort?

Are supposed to believe that everyhting is going great with them?

Why aren’t we hearing about Downgrade’s gaffes?

Why aren’t we hearing about Downgrade regime scandals?

Chip on September 24, 2012 at 11:55 AM


Because old people can count. And they realize there’s no way you can get to 47% of the population as government dependent “victims” without including senior citizens on fixed incomes.

Yes, I suppose that writing off old people was a questionable move for Team Romney, but in Romney’s defence he was addressing a small group of super-rich donors for whom our elderly are a collapsing sink-hole for otherwise productive capital. The man knows his audience. It was like that scene from The Hunger Games only without the hot zen archery master who messes it up for the pig eaters with the weird facial hair.

casuist on September 24, 2012 at 11:56 AM

Most Senior’s don’t know that AARP is a left-wing organization that supported Obamacare because they stand to gain billions from it.

The RNC needs to explain this so as to counter the mailings that the AARP sends to participating Senior’s.

Carnac on September 24, 2012 at 11:46 AM

Do you not realize that if the GOP is having to work on the senior vote than they’ve already lost the election?

libfreeordie on September 24, 2012 at 11:57 AM

I’m sick of the concern trolling and deliberate attempt to squelch Repubican turnout. National Progressive Radio runs a “Romney is slipping in the polls” story every freakin day. Saturday morning they were interviewing supposed undecideds and one person claimed he didn’t know all that much about Romney’s positions and that Romney is “just not doing that good of job of telling voters what he stands for.” He might has well have been reading a handwritten note from Axelgrease.

RobertE on September 24, 2012 at 11:57 AM

Just a comment about Romney support and perceptions of his support. I live in Colorado (the moutains). Some friends and I drove 2 hours to the Denver area to see Mitt Romney last night and 2 hours back on dark twisting turning mountain roads. The Denver Post had estimated the crowd would be 1000. Today’s paper is reporting 7000 attended, but I think there could have been 10,000. There were clearly many Republicans in the crowd, but I also saw many people holding up signs that said “Democrats for Romney”. I saw a fellow with Hebrew tattooed on his neck. I saw young, old, men and women, Blacks and Asians in the crowd. So I think the race is not only far closer than pollsters (who probably don’t attend the rallies) project and far more in Romney’s favor. Polls just depend on who answers the phone and when.

COgirl on September 24, 2012 at 11:58 AM

libfreeordie on September 24, 2012 at 11:57 AM

Did you see this:

Rasmussen: Only 23% believe embassy sieges related to YouTube video
http://hotair.com/archives/2012/09/24/rasmussen-only-23-believe-embassy-sieges-related-to-youtube-video/

Only 23% believe Downgrade’s lies on his dereliction of duty.

How much is that going to damage the dear liar’s tattered credibility?

Chip on September 24, 2012 at 11:58 AM

Remember all that talk a few months ago about MI being in play? LOL!

gumbyandpokey on September 24, 2012 at 10:16 AM
If you are, in fact, Republican, why would that make you LOL!?

Night Owl on September 24, 2012 at 10:27 AM

Because Gumby is a seminar troller and a brazen liar.

The only threads he ever shows up in are polling threads–and he attempts to dominate those with the same “demoralizing” message every single time. He doesn’t engage anyone in thoughtful, dimensional exchanges. He is a plant, and a plant specifically assigned to troll all threads about polls.

Right Mover on September 24, 2012 at 11:59 AM

Amjean on September 24, 2012 at 10:30 AM
Amjean, what part of the country do you operate in that people don’t know negatives about Obama? This fascinates me.

DanMan on September 24, 2012 at 10:36 AM

I was with people from the western suburbs of Chicago. They have a
casual attitude about the political process. They might not like
that gas is over $4.00 per gallon, however, last year when they were
in Europe they paid $8.00. They are still making money, doing the things
they normally do, it just costs more. They are not angry about it to
the point that they are adamant about voting in a new president. They aren’t blaming anyone. It just is the way it is and it will straighten itself out over time. I kid you not. I was astonished.

They certainly do not despise Obama or fear for the country like I do.

One caveat – most were in their mid/late 40′s, early 50′s. I bet that
if I was with people over 60 the rage over Obama would have been very
apparent.

A funny story – some of the wives went to the Madonna concert at the
United Center in Chicago. Madonna had a faux tatoo of Obama’s name on her
back. She spent 30-45 seconds going on and on about Obama, then stated
that if Romney won she would shave her head. That is a reason to vote
for Romney all by itself.

Amjean on September 24, 2012 at 11:59 AM

I’m going to be calling a lot of people out on election night for this foolishness.

gumbyandpokey on September 24, 2012 at 11:49 AM

I’m going to call you out right now fool.

DanMan on September 24, 2012 at 11:59 AM

gumbyandpokey

libfreeordie

Why aren’t we hearing about ANY problems within the re-select Downgrade effort?

Are supposed to believe that everything is going great with them?

Why aren’t we hearing about Downgrade’s gaffes?

Why aren’t we hearing about Downgrade regime scandals?

Chip on September 24, 2012 at 12:00 PM

we will no longer be members of AARP.

PolAgnostic on September 24, 2012 at 11:54 AM

Good for you. I will never join that group. They have done more to harm seniors than to help.

COgirl on September 24, 2012 at 12:01 PM

Romney has a single digit lead in Nebraska. Holy smokes…..

libfreeordie on September 24, 2012 at 11:47 AM

Link?

If the polls were split between those that showed obama leading and those that showed Romney leading, fine. The problem is that EVERY SINGLE POLL shows Obama ahead, so he is ahead and the race cannot “go either way.”

I’m going to be calling a lot of people out on election night for this foolishness.

gumbyandpokey on September 24, 2012 at 11:49 AM

No, not “every single poll” shows Obama leading, troll. Again, if you think Obama will win good for you, but you’re serving no purpose by inundating these threads with your “concern”.

changer1701 on September 24, 2012 at 12:01 PM

Another poll that once again appears completely contrary with itself. And this one that has pretty decent splits.

I have decided that it is almost impossible to consider any of them to know what they are talking about – some are completely dishonest – PPP for instance – and some – Rasmussen and Gallup – seem to have difficulty filling out their polling methodology. Are cell phones changing all of this? Is the GOP base’s complete mistrust of all polling outfits following the 2004 exit polling debacle and the complete fail on the 2010 midterms making them bow out of sampling?

Behind with independents, and catholics (Ohio), a less enthused gender gap difference, only plus 4 for Obama – we know the youth vote will be down. Nothing seems to add up. Obama won by 6 in ’08 – I presume we have come to the point that Obama will lose the popular vote and but may then win it in the electoral college?

Zomcon JEM on September 24, 2012 at 12:02 PM

I was with people from the western suburbs of Chicago.

You are in an ironclad bubble Amjean, thanks for the clarification. You may want to get out more. Way out.

DanMan on September 24, 2012 at 12:02 PM


I saw a fellow with Hebrew tattooed on his neck.

Tattoos aren’t kosher. Proscribed by Torah. But your anecdotal evidence is otherwise compelling I must say.

casuist on September 24, 2012 at 12:02 PM

Just a comment about Romney support and perceptions of his support. I live in Colorado (the moutains). Some friends and I drove 2 hours to the Denver area to see Mitt Romney last night and 2 hours back on dark twisting turning mountain roads. The Denver Post had estimated the crowd would be 1000. Today’s paper is reporting 7000 attended, but I think there could have been 10,000. There were clearly many Republicans in the crowd, but I also saw many people holding up signs that said “Democrats for Romney”. I saw a fellow with Hebrew tattooed on his neck. I saw young, old, men and women, Blacks and Asians in the crowd. So I think the race is not only far closer than pollsters (who probably don’t attend the rallies) project and far more in Romney’s favor. Polls just depend on who answers the phone and when.

COgirl on September 24, 2012 at 11:58 AM

Search through the HotAir archives as i did over the weekend. You will find dozens upon dozens of posts from people reporting on excitement and diversity and McCain and Palin rallies throughout the swing states. You have to wonder about the thinking. 7,000 people at a campaign rally represents what percentage of an electorate in the hundreds of thousands? No matter how riled up those supporters are they each only represent one vote.

That said, I think Obama is very vulnerable in CO, moreso than in OH, WI, MI or PA which are union strongholds and which he will win. The marijuana legalization initiative in CO may sink Obama in CO as a number of libertarians are justly annoyed at his DEA ramping up anti-dispensary prosecutions.

libfreeordie on September 24, 2012 at 12:02 PM

“Wow, did everyone here know that at this time in 1980 Reagan was leading Carter by an average of 3.4 in national polls? News to me. Thanks Nate Silver!

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/24/the-statistical-state-of-the-presidential-race/?gwh=567D9AA858EFB539F05B4A18479099BD

Don’t expect many responses to this factual post.

All the partisans can hold their hat on is the incorrect assumption that Reagan was way behind in the polls at this time.

gumbyandpokey on September 24, 2012 at 12:03 PM

“No, not “every single poll” shows Obama leading, troll. Again, if you think Obama will win good for you, but you’re serving no purpose by inundating these threads with your “concern”.”

Which national poll is Romney leading in? And when was it taken?

gumbyandpokey on September 24, 2012 at 12:04 PM


gumbyandpokey

libfreeordie

Why aren’t we hearing about ANY problems within the re-select Downgrade effort?

Are supposed to believe that everything is going great with them?

Why aren’t we hearing about Downgrade’s gaffes?

Why aren’t we hearing about Downgrade regime scandals?

Chip on September 24, 2012 at 12:04 PM

Don’t expect many responses to this factual post.

gumbyandpokey on September 24, 2012 at 12:03 PM

Trying to go with facts for a change?

Chip on September 24, 2012 at 12:05 PM

Romney has a single digit lead in Nebraska. Holy smokes…..

libfreeordie on September 24, 2012 at 11:47 AM

Link?

My error its an 11 point lead in Nebraska (which still seems low) and a 9 point lead in Montana (which seems about right).

Rasmussen: Only 23% believe embassy sieges related to YouTube video
http://hotair.com/archives/2012/09/24/rasmussen-only-23-believe-embassy-sieges-related-to-youtube-video/

Only 23% believe Downgrade’s lies on his dereliction of duty.

How much is that going to damage the dear liar’s tattered credibility?

Chip on September 24, 2012 at 11:58 AM

Probably none because as I’ve said on a number of threads (and never really gotten a good answer to) no one cares. This is the most isolationist electorate since before World War I. I am also pleased that Americans are not so racist as to believe a movie inspired these events and that, instead, its a violent response to western imperialism. I have faith in the country.

libfreeordie on September 24, 2012 at 12:07 PM

ibfreeordie on September 24, 2012 at 12:02 PM

What does anyone have to be excited about four more years of Downgrade and Decline for the nation?

Chip on September 24, 2012 at 12:07 PM

“I don’t think you are an Obama supporter,”

I’m not. You will not find me defending/championing one policy decision of his.

Your silence in not defending/championing Obama’s policy decisions would not make you unusual among Obama supporters on these forums. Virtually none of the actual Obama acolytes, when challenged, is ever inclined to present a viable defense for Dear Leader’s destructive reign.
They are not on these forums to elicit support for Obama, but rather, like you, to depress turnout for Romney. And that is not going to happen. No matter how it’s rationalized, there’s no way in hell that Democrat voter enthusiasm can possibly match the enthusiasm of conservative voters pulling out all stops to get out to the polls in November.

Right Mover on September 24, 2012 at 12:09 PM

It was like that scene from The Hunger Games only without the hot zen archery master who messes it up for the pig eaters with the weird facial hair.

casuist on September 24, 2012 at 11:56 AM

Dag nabbit! Now you’ve bollixed it up for us old people who are waiting to see it on the HBO thingy.

:P

Ladysmith CulchaVulcha on September 24, 2012 at 12:09 PM

All the partisans can hold their hat on is the incorrect assumption that Reagan was way behind in the polls at this time.

Yes, but the audacity of comparing an ideological cross-dresser like Romney to a conviction politician like Reagan amuses me.

casuist on September 24, 2012 at 12:09 PM

libfreeordie

Why aren’t we hearing ANY stories on troubles within Team Downgrade?

Are we to believe that everything’s smooth sailing over there?

They’ve got this massive screw-up on their part and not a whimper of discontent from Chicago?

Chip on September 24, 2012 at 12:10 PM

“Wow, did everyone here know that at this time in 1980 Reagan was leading Carter by an average of 3.4 in national polls? News to me. Thanks Nate Silver!

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/24/the-statistical-state-of-the-presidential-race/?gwh=567D9AA858EFB539F05B4A18479099BD”

Don’t expect many responses to this factual post.

I don’t gumby dear. You are doing the best you can, lord knows it will hurt folks less if they merely accept the data in front of them. But when you have a political movement built upon anti-intellectualism, built upon skepticism of the very notion of data, research and analysis it is easy to blindly believe what you want. You should check out the archives from October 2008. In particular the musings of one “ManlyRash” who had some kind of creepy svengali cult of personality thing going on with people in the “Quotes of the Day” threads. He had scores of posters utterly convinced that McCain was going to win through nothing but posturing and bluster. It was truly an amazing thing to behold. Some poor sap named “Roger Waters” fought valiantly against them and they heaped scorn and abuse on him like nothing else. Believe me, what you experience is mild.

libfreeordie on September 24, 2012 at 12:11 PM

Which national poll is Romney leading in? And when was it taken?

gumbyandpokey on September 24, 2012 at 12:04 PM

You know damn well the tracking polls either had Romney ahead or even last week, not to mention the Ras polls that have had him ahead in certain states (Iowa, for one) or within the MOE.

But those don’t matter, because you’re here to demoralize. Period.

changer1701 on September 24, 2012 at 12:11 PM


Dag nabbit! Now you’ve bollixed it up for us old people who are waiting to see it on the HBO thingy.

It was only a scene! It gives away nothing. I haven’t seen the film either. But I love this spoof trailer.

casuist on September 24, 2012 at 12:12 PM

Because old people can count. And they realize there’s no way you can get to 47% of the population as government dependent “victims” without including senior citizens on fixed incomes.

libfreeordie on September 24, 2012 at 11:43 AM

Can they count to $716 billion? That’s how much your pathetic punk of a President is stealing from their Medicare funding to pay for his destructive takeover of our healthcare.

Right Mover on September 24, 2012 at 12:12 PM

Romney is down 4-5% in OH, down 4-5% in VA, probably down 1-2% in FL. All perfectly consistent with him being down ~5% nationally at this moment.

From here, it can go either way – either he will fade, like Dukakis in 1988, and lose by 7 or 8%, or pick up and make it close, like Kerry in 2004. This will be MA trio or losers, what a coincidence.

But at least he can make it close, and help the GOP to hold the House. Otherwise, we are down to the Senate filibuster.

buridan on September 24, 2012 at 12:12 PM

Madonna had a faux tatoo of Obama’s name on her
back. She spent 30-45 seconds going on and on about Obama, then stated
that if Romney won she would shave her head. That is a reason to vote
for Romney all by itself.

Amjean on September 24, 2012 at 11:59 AM

Again?!?

;)

Ladysmith CulchaVulcha on September 24, 2012 at 12:15 PM

libfreeordie on September 24, 2012 at 11:47 AM
Why are you a Downgrade supporter?

Chip on September 24, 2012 at 11:49 AM

She will not answer that. Libfree and all the other leftist trolls are here for the purpose of depressing us and suppressing the Romney vote, not to engender mroe support for their unsupportable, indefensible sociopath of a president.
They do not ever answer when challenged to produce a defense of their beloved Chosen One.

Right Mover on September 24, 2012 at 12:18 PM

I’m not. You will not find me defending/championing one policy decision of his.

Your silence in not defending/championing Obama’s policy decisions would not make you unusual among Obama supporters on these forums. Virtually none of the actual Obama acolytes, when challenged, is ever inclined to present a viable defense for Dear Leader’s destructive reign.
They are not on these forums to elicit support for Obama, but rather, like you, to depress turnout for Romney. And that is not going to happen. No matter how it’s rationalized, there’s no way in hell that Democrat voter enthusiasm can possibly match the enthusiasm of conservative voters pulling out all stops to get out to the polls in November.

Right Mover on September 24, 2012 at 12:09 PM

You have to wonder why some such as this would spend all their time here effectively campaigning for the Decline of the nation that will be the result of the dear liar’s reign.

Chip on September 24, 2012 at 12:18 PM

Can someone explain to me why these statistical dead heats are anything other than signals that Obama will win the election. It seems like each poll, though within the margin of error, still shows Obama leading by two or three points. Does that not indicate that he will win a narrow victory six weeks from now?

Please, someone expose my shoddy logic. Seriously. It would brighten my day.

discojoe on September 24, 2012 at 12:21 PM

libfreeordie on September 24, 2012 at 11:47 AM
Why are you a Downgrade supporter?

Chip on September 24, 2012 at 11:49 AM

She will not answer that. Libfree and all the other leftist trolls are here for the purpose of depressing us and suppressing the Romney vote, not to engender mroe support for their unsupportable, indefensible sociopath of a president.
They do not ever answer when challenged to produce a defense of their beloved Chosen One.

Right Mover on September 24, 2012 at 12:18 PM

I fully realize that – I just like show they’re inherent lack of intellectual capacity and they’re cowardice.

They know they don’t have a leg to stand on so they pretend to ignore postings right in front of them.

Chip on September 24, 2012 at 12:22 PM

It was only a scene! It gives away nothing. I haven’t seen the film either. But I love this spoof trailer.

casuist on September 24, 2012 at 12:12 PM

HAAAAHAHAHAHA! Omygawd, now I’ll nevah! watch the movie because it can never live up to the awsomeness of that spoof. Thanks! You made my day.

:)

Ladysmith CulchaVulcha on September 24, 2012 at 12:23 PM

At this point, how meaningless are the National Polls?

they really haven’t changed much in about two months.

Right now, I want more info on the swing states.

Sure Romney may be within striking distance of Obama NATIONALLY,
but if he fails to win states like Ohio, Florida or Virginia, its over.

GadsdenRattlers on September 24, 2012 at 12:23 PM

From here, it can go either way – either he will fade, like Dukakis in 1988, and lose by 7 or 8%, or pick up and make it close, like Kerry in 2004. This will be MA trio or losers, what a coincidence.

I’m betting on the fade that is already developing in critical demographics, e.g. our elderly voters. My only evidence is (a) Team Romney’s fantasy wish-fulfilment that somehow the debates will reverse their fortunes, when historically the debates never reverse the fortunes of campaigns, and (b) Romney’s vacant-eyed line delivered on 60 minutes where he said his campaign was “doing fine” and that he was very proud of them and stuff. Both A and B are redolent of the Führerbunker-fantasy that Steiner’s Army Detachment Steiner will save Berlin. Just hold the line! The debates will save us.

I hope I’m wrong. This is the outcome I pray for:

But at least he can make it close, and help the GOP to hold the House. Otherwise, we are down to the Senate filibuster.

casuist on September 24, 2012 at 12:24 PM

Why are you a Downgrade supporter?

Chip on September 24, 2012 at 11:49 AM

1. Supreme Court
2. The healthcare bill is a good idea.

libfreeordie on September 24, 2012 at 12:25 PM

I was with people from the western suburbs of Chicago.
You are in an ironclad bubble Amjean, thanks for the clarification. You may want to get out more. Way out.

DanMan on September 24, 2012 at 12:02 PM

As I stated, I was with people I do not socialize with on a weekly basis.
I attended two banquets where I met up with casual associations re
children’s sports activities.

In my business I deal with small business owners all over the country.
100% of them will not be voting for Obama. They can’t wait for 11-6.

However, my point with my little story which got lost in all the
details LOL, is that Romney needs to get his facts out there to those
that aren’t paying attention, giving them a reason to vote for him.

Amjean on September 24, 2012 at 12:27 PM

You have to wonder why some such as this would spend all their time here effectively campaigning for the Decline of the nation that will be the result of the dear liar’s reign.

Chip on September 24, 2012 at 12:18 PM

Easy – because they hate this country almost as much as they hate themselves.

PolAgnostic on September 24, 2012 at 12:28 PM

Libtard for life said Rasmussen showed Michigan in double digits for Oblowme. Link? Just checked on the site and there was nothing about michigan. And showing Obozo only up by 1..

anchorman on September 24, 2012 at 12:30 PM

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