The Bandwagoneers

posted at 2:31 pm on September 22, 2012 by Mitch Berg

Have you noticed something?

There’s been no “Minnesota Poll” yet this cycle.  Ditto the proprietary poll from the University of Minnesota’s liberal think tank, Humprey Institute.  (If you’re not from Minnesota – well, stay tuned.  We’ll go national in a bit).

Usually by this point in an election cycle, they’ve run a poll showing the Republican candidate down by some absurd amount that turns out to be many times greater than the eventual margin of victory (or defeat) for the DFLer.

Now, I’ve been writing about the HHH and Strib “Minnesota” polls for quite some time.  I noted that since 1988, the Strib Minnesota Poll has consistently shorted Republicans by a consistently greater margin than Democrats in their pre-election polls – and that the discrepancy is even greater in elections that end up being closest.  I noted that the HHH poll is even worse - but that in polls where the DFLer appears to be in no danger, their polls end up being more accurate.

It is my contention that the Strib and the Humphrey Institute are allied – at least at the executive level – with the DFL, and use their polls to further the DFL’s ends; everyone involved is certainly aware of the “Bandwagon Effect” – the phenomenon by which voters who believe their candidates have no chance of victory will stay home.

So we’ve seen no “Minnesota” poll so far this cycle; Amy Klobuchar – perhaps the greatest beneficiary of media bias in the history of Minnesota politics, as the daughter of a former Strib columnist – seems to be in no great danger, so the polls say, from Kurt Bills (not to say I won’t do everything I can, personally, to fix that).  I’ll bet dimes to dollars the Strib polls wind up pretty darn close to the election totals, in fact!

———-

But the “Bandwagon” effect is going nationwide; Minnesota in 2008 and 2010 showed that it can keep juuuuuuuuust enough people home, if it’s relentless enough, to tip a close election.

And so you see the mainstream media already declaring the election over, based entirely on polling that is entirely based on the Democrats getting turnout they didn’t even get in 2008.

It is, in fact, the flip side of the “Low Information Voter” strategy they’ve run on their own side – convincing the ill-informed, the querulous and the not-bright that there’s a “war on women” and Obama “stands with the 99%” and “the economy was Bush’s fault but it’s almost back, any day now”. The flip side involves trying to convince people, especially independents, who might be sick to death of Obama and possibly thinking of voting GOP that it’s all hopeless and they should stay home.

Think about it.  Why else would they run polls that are transparently false?  That rely on assumptions that probably didn’t even occur during the post-Watergate election in 1976, much less 2008, much less today?

Because only the high-information voters either dig into the partisan breakdowns (or read the bloggers who do), and the record in Minnesota shows there are just enough incurious, too-busy, ill-informed, and just plain un-bright people to sway the matter if it’s close enough.

The media at all levels – bald-faced cheerleaders like the LATimes and the Strib and the supposedly-ethical ones like NPR alike – are going to be beating the “it’s over” drum constantly ’til the election.

The well-informed people know it’s baked wind.

But it’s not aimed at them.

This post was promoted from GreenRoom to HotAir.com.
To see the comments on the original post, look here.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Voter suppression is the only strategy left when you have no accomplishments.

Difficultas_Est_Imperium on September 22, 2012 at 2:37 PM

Have you noticed something?

There’s been no “Minnesota Poll” yet this cycle. Ditto the proprietary poll from the University of Minnesota’s liberal think tank, Humprey Institute. (If you’re not from Minnesota – well, stay tuned. We’ll go national in a bit).

Usually by this point in an election cycle, they’ve run a poll showing the Republican candidate down by some absurd amount that turns out to be many times greater than the eventual margin of victory (or defeat) for the DFLer.

Still, there have been 2 polls of Minnesota by outside polling companies, but they’re a little old considering current events.

Sounds like it’s time to get Rasmussen (or Fox or WSJ) to conduct a poll. If you can’t get the mainstream media to do it, conduct your own. There’s nothing to stop you from trying to create your own bandwagon effect. And if it gets Obama to spend money where he otherwise wouldn’t, all the better.

I wouldn’t count on getting favorable results since Wisconsin and Michigan have both moved from Tossup to Leans Obama in the RCP electoral map, with Ohio leaning heavily in Obama’s favor (although Iowa is more competitive), but if you don’t try, you’ll never know.

Stoic Patriot on September 22, 2012 at 2:37 PM

Minnesota is full of conservatives whom have been brainwashed by Unions that they are liberals

Drunk Report on September 22, 2012 at 2:40 PM

Why else would they run polls that are transparently false?….and the record in Minnesota shows there are just enough incurious, too-busy, ill-informed, and just plain un-bright people to sway the matter if it’s close enough.

So the high information voter knows it’s BS, and the campaigns know it’s BS, so why doesn’t some enterprising GOPer put out a damn ad showing this info to the low info voter?

ScottG on September 22, 2012 at 2:41 PM

“Strib” is Minnesota talk for the Minneapolis Star Tribune, the NYT wannabe from the Twin Cities, for anyone who wasn’t already picking up on that.

Red Cloud on September 22, 2012 at 2:41 PM

From the state that gave the country Al Franken. That’s why we have Ed Morrisey – he’s a form of political penance for foisting AF on us.

You could have got off scot free but now the cat’s out of the bag – Mitch is from the land of the loons, also. And he wants everyone to know it so he’s writing for HotGas.

Enjoy. We luv ya. But no free ride around here if you talk about MN politics.

platypus on September 22, 2012 at 2:42 PM

Good piece Mitch.

Kataklysmic on September 22, 2012 at 2:44 PM

Since this article clearly suggests media bias in connection with polls this thread ought to be a doozy.

Trolls have an affinity for polls.

thatsafactjack on September 22, 2012 at 2:47 PM

Exactly true, bandwagoneers is the only thing that can explain how anyone with a functioning synapse could vote for Obummer again! It’s either that or they are just plain stupid!

Liberty or Death on September 22, 2012 at 2:51 PM

“Strib” is Minnesota talk for the Minneapolis Star Tribune, the NYT wannabe from the Twin Cities, for anyone who wasn’t already picking up on that.

Red Cloud on September 22, 2012 at 2:41 PM

Thanks for explaining that!

:)

Ladysmith CulchaVulcha on September 22, 2012 at 2:52 PM

prols

davidk on September 22, 2012 at 2:53 PM

Exactly true, bandwagoneers is the only thing that can explain how anyone with a functioning synapse could vote for Obummer again! It’s either that or they are just plain stupid!

Liberty or Death on September 22, 2012 at 2:51 PM

I just hope enough is leaking through that many are jumping off the bandwagon.

Not that they’ll jump on ours; they won’t vote at all.

davidk on September 22, 2012 at 2:55 PM

I got tripped up on “DLFer” which is The Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party.

Difficultas_Est_Imperium on September 22, 2012 at 2:57 PM

I got tripped up on “DLFer” which is The Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party.

Difficultas_Est_Imperium on September 22, 2012 at 2:57 PM

Heh. Mr. Berg oughta provide a ‘Minnesotan-to-English‘ dictionary.

:)

Ladysmith CulchaVulcha on September 22, 2012 at 3:01 PM

Here’s how we counter the Bandwagon Effect. First, we know that Obama’s econmomy has been harshest on young black males and that a significant percent of them are unemployed.

I say we offer each of them $1,000 to stand around on election day in heavily white Democrat voting precincts, along with their friends. We dress them all in Black Panther uniforms and issue billy clubs and chains and all sorts of scary looking equipment.

For each such precinct where the voter turnout is down by more than 25% from 2008 levels, each participant at that precinct gets a $5,000 bonus.

Problem solved.

TXUS on September 22, 2012 at 3:04 PM

Operation Demoralize continues on schedule.

AZCoyote on September 22, 2012 at 3:05 PM

Journalist Creed for All

A code of ethics written around 1906 by Walter Williams shortly after founding the Missouri School of Journalism.

I believe in the profession of Journalism. I believe that the public journal is a public trust; that all connected with it are, to the full measure of responsibility, trustees for the public; that all acceptance of lesser service than the public service is a betrayal of this trust. I believe that clear thinking, clear statement, accuracy and fairness are fundamental to good journalism. I believe that a journalist should write only what he holds in his heart to be true. I believe that suppression of the news, for any consideration other than the welfare of society, is indefensible. I believe that no one should write as a journalist what he would not say as a gentleman; that bribery by one’s own pocket book is as much to be avoided as bribery by the pocketbook of another; that individual responsibility may not be escaped by pleading another’s instructions or another’s dividends. I believe that advertising, news and editorial columns should alike serve the best interests of readers; that a single standard of helpful truth and cleanness should prevail for all; that supreme test of good journalism is the measure of its public service. I believe that the journalism which succeeds the best-and best deserves success-fears God and honors man; is stoutly independent; unmoved by pride of opinion or greed of power; constructive, tolerant but never careless, self-controlled, patient, always respectful of its readers but always unafraid, is quickly indignant at injustice; is unswayed by the appeal of the privilege or the clamor of the mob; seeks to give every man a chance, and as far as law, an honest wage and recognition of human brotherhood can make it so, an equal chance; is profoundly patriotic while sincerely promoting international good will and cementing world-comradeship, is a journalism of humanity, of and for today’s world.

Schadenfreude on September 22, 2012 at 3:06 PM

Other than Gallup and Rassmussen daily tracking polls, have we seen any other presidential polls in the last 3 or 4 days? Is it curious that we got polls every other hour when Obama was experiencing his convention bounce and now that that is history—all’s quiet?

dirtseller on September 22, 2012 at 3:10 PM

I

just hope enough is leaking through that many are jumping off the bandwagon.

Not that they’ll jump on ours; they won’t vote at all.

davidk on September 22, 2012 at 2:55 PM

I agree, it would be a big advantage to Romney if the liberals stayed home. I like the current tactic of Romney appealing to those that voted for Obama in 2008 that they’re not stupid for voting for him but now they can make a real change. Although it is my opinion that those that voted for Obama in 2008 and fell for his BS when it was obvious he was and is an empty suit tells me they’re not too bright!

Liberty or Death on September 22, 2012 at 3:13 PM

Here are some other propaganda techniques used by the Obamunists in the MSM.

redridinghood on September 22, 2012 at 3:22 PM

Not uncommon, most polls are designed to lie, to affect the minds of the feeble minded, in other words to help Democrats. Why a person would be influenced by the polls points directly to ignorance & stupidity, a natural for Democrats.

arand on September 22, 2012 at 3:24 PM

Minnesota!

Season’s 1st snow falls overnight in northeast Minnesota, officially 0.1″ – @weatherchannel

davidk on September 22, 2012 at 3:30 PM

Other than Gallup and Rassmussen daily tracking polls, have we seen any other presidential polls in the last 3 or 4 days? Is it curious that we got polls every other hour when Obama was experiencing his convention bounce and now that that is history—all’s quiet?

dirtseller on September 22, 2012 at 3:10 PM

Great point, and I was thinking the same thing the other day. It is baffling. In 2008, there were literally dozens of national polls per day being released, both national pollsters like Ras and Gallup, D leaning polls and R leaning polls. They polled all the staters, Senate races, etc.., extensively. This year, aside from Gallup and Ras, you get a flood of PPP’s biased polls, an idiotic Pew poll here or there, and some heavily skewed Q and Marist polls. Other than that it is silence.

For a few weeks once Obama got his bounce, more polls popped up, but now, there are very few polls being published. So, you are correct, it is strange.

Also, for all these states and Senate races that are supposedly off the table, there have been no new polls in months (and PPP is as good as not having a poll).

So, all thats there is the media narrative basing their views on Nate Silver’s idiotic “model” that pretends that 90% of the country loves Karl Marx. So, the question becomes, is there anything to this other than Mitch’s point? And I think the answer is no.

Anyone, who like me, lives or works in a blue state, just look around. Do you see Obama/Biden 2012 bumper stickers? I saw plenty in 2008, very few this year. Do you see Obama t-shirts and/or merchandise stands everywhere? Again, tons in 2008, none this year. How about yard signs? Again, 4 years ago, they were everywhere already. This year, none. Again, in 2008, the blue states were never in question, yet the enthusiasm was there. This year, even if these states are not in play, there is next to no enthusiasm. So, that cant say much about the media narrative that this election is over.

milcus on September 22, 2012 at 3:30 PM

I got tripped up on “DLFer” which is The Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party.

Difficultas_Est_Imperium on September 22, 2012 at 2:57 PM

Thanks, I had concluded Democratic Liberal Fu**heads..

hillsoftx on September 22, 2012 at 3:36 PM

These are the people that the MSM through heavily slanted polls, covering for the SCOAMF, and hitting Romney all the time hope to influence.

Sad but true, our nation is in the hands of the semi-litterate.

jukin3 on September 22, 2012 at 3:44 PM

So the high information voter knows it’s BS, and the campaigns know it’s BS, so why doesn’t some enterprising GOPer put out a damn ad showing this info to the low info voter?

ScottG on September 22, 2012 at 2:41 PM

Because the low-info voter will either not see it or ignore it.

TarheelBen on September 22, 2012 at 3:45 PM

The MSM have to believe the election is already decided, because of all their main players have invested in Obama. If it were to happen today, they have a good chance of being right. But as each day closer to Nov. 6 passes, with world and national events showing Administration incompetence and lies to cover them up, likelihood of Obama’s victory shrink.

The biggest gun the media have is to dishearten opposition to Obama, so that we stay home. I think this is more for the benefit of MSM personalities than for their president. If voted out, he can retire on a healthy Federal pension and make tons of money on the lecture circuit for a few years. I doubt he’ll last much longer than that in popularity, because I can’t see him going out of his way to keep Democrat politics alive the way Bill Clinton has done for so long. Plus, Obama doesn’t have the savvy and people skills like Bill.

The media back-scratchers, however, won’t have such comfortable ends in many cases. Their credibility is shot to hell, and many are likely to become liabilities to their outlets if and after a Romney win. All they will have is a negative narrative, because there won’t be anyone on their side to pump up–someone to point to and say, “This is better!”

The way I see it, if Keith Olbermann can get sacked from two liberal outlets in a year or so, anyone at CNN, FNC, and MSNBC is vulnerable to the same fate just as easily if not more.

Let the band play on!

Liam on September 22, 2012 at 3:49 PM

Sad but true, our nation is in the hands of the semi-litterate.

jukin3 on September 22, 2012 at 3:44 PM

That is why I’m not discouraged with low turnout numbers and don’t support the get out the vote efforts and “Just Vote!” campaigns that celebrities and the dems run during election season. You ought to have at least some amount of knowledge about current events before entering a voting booth. The mere act of showing up is not what makes our country great nor does it help promote a stronger republic. Get those low information people informed first, then have them be voters.

AZfederalist on September 22, 2012 at 3:51 PM

Why do analyzers of polls, like you, Mitch, believe what the pollsters say about the demographics of the samples?

GaltBlvnAtty on September 22, 2012 at 3:53 PM

I got tripped up on “DLFer” which is The Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party.

Difficultas_Est_Imperium on September 22, 2012 at 2:57 PM

Ha! I guess I lived in MN long enough that the term DFL or DFLer rolled right off my back!

A conservative buddy of mine in the military once said to me… “hey, you know what DFL stands for? Dumb F****** Losers!”

Red Cloud on September 22, 2012 at 3:54 PM

Schadenfreude on September 22, 2012 at 3:06 PM

It’s comforting to see that journalists are still following that very same code of ethics to this day…

*gag*

I do think they edited it down to ‘Shut up, we know best.’

BigWyo on September 22, 2012 at 3:57 PM

If voted out, he can retire on a healthy Federal pension and make tons of money on the lecture circuit for a few years. I doubt he’ll last much longer than that in popularity, because I can’t see him going out of his way to keep Democrat politics alive the way Bill Clinton has done for so long. Plus, Obama doesn’t have the savvy and people skills like Bill.

Liam on September 22, 2012 at 3:49 PM

You have a good point regarding how the media has invested in Obama. A Romney win just means they go into attack mode though, not that they are through. All of the things they ignored or applauded when Obama did them will become liberty threatening attacks on the poor and minorities when Romney does them. Remember, they are the media arm of the DNC; even if Obama goes away, the DNC will still be there.

Your comment about Obama’s post presidency activities are spot on. His statement at Univision about “not being able to change Washington from the inside” is a cause for concern because a post-presidency Obama could view activism and fomenting re.v.olution a la Lenin or Castro as changing Washington from the outside. But I don’t think he has the motivation to do that, or at least to do it successfully. He is used to others carrying his water. He would probably be good with others using him as a figurehead in such an activity, so that will bear watching. But if so, it’s going to have to be while he is not playing golf.

AZfederalist on September 22, 2012 at 3:58 PM

Red Cloud on September 22, 2012 at 3:54 PM

‘Don’t Forget the (free) Lunch???

BigWyo on September 22, 2012 at 3:59 PM

Think about it. Why else would they run polls that are transparently false? That rely on assumptions that probably didn’t even occur during the post-Watergate election in 1976, much less 2008, much less today?

Hire Mitch Berg and fire Eeyore

For a few weeks once Obama got his bounce, more polls popped up, but now, there are very few polls being published. So, you are correct, it is strange.

They have their narrative. If they run more polls, they may have to over-sample Ds to such an extent that even an Eeyore would notice.

Basilsbest on September 22, 2012 at 4:13 PM

Schadenfreude on September 22, 2012 at 3:06 PM

I think modern journalists have adopted that in a modified form:

I believe in the profession of Journalism. I believe that the public journal has the full measure of responsibility to promote progressivism to the public; that all acceptance of lesser service than this service of progressivism is a betrayal of this trust. I believe that clear and subliminal statements of progressivism are fundamental to good journalism. I believe that a journalist should write only what he holds in his heart to be true. I believe the news should be presented for my view of the welfare of society. I believe that advertising, news and editorial columns should alike serve the best interests of progressive views; that a single standard of helpful truth to that cause should prevail for all; that supreme test of good journalism is the measure of its progressive service. I believe that the journalism which succeeds the best-and best deserves success-is stoutly devoted to progressivism; tolerant of everything but intolerance recognizes the need to educate its readers in that progressive viewpoint unafraid to point out injustice when it serves progressivism; is unswayed by the appeal of the privileged but promotes the clamor of the mob; seeks to give every man an equal outcome, a guaranteed wage and recognition of human brotherhood; is profoundly aloof from patriotism while sincerely promoting internationalism promoting world-comradeship, is a journalism of humanism, of and for the advancement of progressivism in the world.

AZfederalist on September 22, 2012 at 4:13 PM

Da Freakin Liberals?

faraway on September 22, 2012 at 4:17 PM

AZfederalist on September 22, 2012 at 4:13 PM

Spot on.

BigWyo on September 22, 2012 at 4:19 PM

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Along these same lines Obama is supposedly leading in Wisconsin by about 7 points.

So what the heck is he doing campaigning in Milwaukee today?!?!?!?!?

MaggiePoo on September 22, 2012 at 4:37 PM

…A pole…a poll!… where’s gummeandpokeme for this one ?…battling blood clots to the brain?

KOOLAID2 on September 22, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Early voting starts next week in Ohio. Why do you think SO many media polls of Ohio have come out in the last 10 days, all of them oversampling Democrats and all of them showing a “widening” Obama lead? Minnesota must not have early voting, so no polls yet.

Bottom line is NEVER trust a media sponsored poll. They are ALL nothing but stenographers for the White House.

rockmom on September 22, 2012 at 5:12 PM

“Dumb F****** Losers!”

I agree. I spent a Century, One Winter, in Mpls.

RADIOONE on September 22, 2012 at 6:07 PM

The media at all levels … are going to be beating the “it’s over” drum constantly ’til the election.

The well-informed people know it’s baked wind.

Well-informed people know that “till” is a venerable and legitimate word, that it has two “l”s and that it doesn’t require a prefixed apostrophe.

Not even a decent effort. But we’ll keep your resumé on file in the event that we ever have an opening commensurate with your skills. Sometimes we need people to take out the trash.

JackieB on September 22, 2012 at 6:14 PM

I am glad when I listened to Mitch today that someone is catching on to the Axelrod strategy he has used since Hillary. Polls are simply campaign tools and when one of the firms (Gallup) got out of line they got the DOJ put on them. I weep for the country that it all comes down to ALinsky’s rules for Radicals to win elections and not the issues facing the country.

Conan on September 22, 2012 at 7:00 PM

JackieB on September 22, 2012 –

From the OED:

“In most contexts, till and until have the same meaning and are interchangeable. The main difference is that till is generally considered to be more informal than until. Until occurs much more frequently than till in writing. In addition, until tends to be the natural choice at the beginning of a sentence: until very recently, there was still a chance of rescuing the situation. Interestingly, while it is commonly assumed that till is an abbreviated form of until (the spellings ‘till and ’til reflect this), till is in fact the earlier form. Until appears to have been formed by the addition of Old Norse und (‘as far as’) several hundred years after the date of the first records for till.”

In any case, well-informed people know that English is a language of many permutations, and many many ways of saying something correctly.

Siddhartha Vicious on September 22, 2012 at 7:22 PM

This is precisely why Rush, Savage, and many other conservative pundits have been urging folks to go out and find their conservative friends who are either not registered or who rarely vote, and bring them along to the polls.

Each one teach one, right? The number of unaffiliated Americans who lean conservative on most issues, but are sick of the politics shoved at them every election season, those are the ones who can make this an unprecedented landslide.

Find them.

Freelancer on September 22, 2012 at 8:43 PM

they’ve run a poll showing the Republican candidate down by some absurd amount that turns out to be many times greater than the eventual margin of victory (or defeat) for the DFLer.

…but that in polls where the DFLer appears to be in no danger, their polls end up being more accurate.

Mr. Berg,

You seem to be saying that the GOP candidate is always down (but sometimes wins).

So, how is the DFLer ever shown as in danger?

mockmook on September 22, 2012 at 9:10 PM

Mr. Berg,
You seem to be saying that the GOP candidate is always down (but sometimes wins).
So, how is the DFLer ever shown as in danger?
mockmook on September 22, 2012 at 9:10 PM

When it’s not an obvious blowout, where the DFL candidate is way ahead, e.g. 15 – 20 points and everyone knows they’re going to win big; for example, the Klobuchar lead – she had built-in family name recognition in Minnesota. In races where the polling shows the Dem leading by 5-10 points it’s, at the least, a coin flip – if not a clue that the Rep will likely win. The Strib (Mpls Star Tribune aka “The Red Star”) polls are notoriously bad/biased that way historically, in particular.

whatcat on September 22, 2012 at 9:49 PM

I think that the people of Minnesota should know that President Obama plans to send Adrian Peterson to the Bears for low draft picks.

IlikedAUH2O on September 23, 2012 at 1:39 AM