Thompson trailing in WI Senate race by three

posted at 12:41 pm on September 21, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Remember that big GOTV infrastructure left over from Scott Walker’s resounding victory in the recall election, just three months ago?  The infrastructure that was supposed to grease the skids for a Republican victory in Wisconsin for both Mitt Romney and Tommy Thompson, the latter in the Senate race that replaces retiring Democrat Herb Kohl?  Today’s Rasmussen poll suggests that it might be more difficult for Republicans to win the Badger State than previously thought:

Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin now has a slight lead over former Republican Governor Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin’s volatile U.S. Senate race.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Wisconsin Voters finds Baldwin with 49% support to Thompson’s 46%. Two percent (2%) like some other candidate in the race, and four percent (4%) are undecided.

The Wisconsin race now shifts from Safe Republican to a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Senate Balance of Power rankings.

Thompson enjoyed a bounce after winning his primary last month. Now the race has returned to where it was in July when Baldwin posted leads over all her potential Republican opponents including Thompson. This marks Baldwin’s highest level of support to date.

President Obama also has regained the lead in Wisconsin after Mitt Romney had edged ahead in the state last month. Wisconsin remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections.

How is Baldwin managing to pull out in front?  She has a seven-point lead among independents, 46/39, and a +5 in the overall gender gap.  In the age demos, most of her lead comes from a ten-point gap in the under-40 vote, 50/40, while Thompson only leads among seniors by six, 51/45.

Of course, this is still a margin-of-error race, and the two candidates are evenly matched in favorability as well.  Thomspon gets a 49/46 personal rating, while Baldwin has a slightly wider 49/44 favorability.  Baldwin’s numbers show a greater polarization, though, with 32/31 on very favorable/very unfavorable, while Thompson has a 22/28 rating — indicating his support is significantly less passionate, while his opposition is somewhat more so.

In even more bad news, the polling sample slightly overstates Republican turnout.  The recall election had a D/R/I in the exit polls of 34/35/31, with Walker’s big GOTV apparatus in place.  Rasmussen’s sample is 36/39/25, which is slightly more Republican and less independent.  That seems rather optimistic in a regularly-scheduled general election; the 2010 midterm exit polls in Wisconsin had a D/R/I of 37/36/28.  The difference is small, and it’s not indefensible — we may see a big surge in Republican voters — but it still should favor Thompson, and he’s still trailing.


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Tammy Baldwin’s ahead of Tommy Thompson?

What the hell kind of Democratic primary battle is this? Did the Republicans not bother to put forth a candidate?

mintycrys on September 21, 2012 at 2:37 PM

Bing did the same thing. I’m going to try a few others. You would think a search of bumper stickers would be innocuous enough for fairness but you would be wrong.

Cindy Munford on September 21, 2012 at 2:34 PM

Try CafePress. For some reason, none of the search engines crawled there.

Steve Eggleston on September 21, 2012 at 2:38 PM

Steve Eggleston on September 21, 2012 at 2:38 PM

They had something similar but not the one I saw, maybe it was homemade.

Cindy Munford on September 21, 2012 at 2:43 PM

I am so weary reading this thread…this “republicans” vs “conserbatives” BS here is nothing but fodder for the libtards.

I’m from Louisiana…when Edwin Edwards was running against avowed racist David Duke, and many were anti-Edwards in the Democrat party Edwin said ‘You’re just gonna have to hold your nose and vote for me”.

Thats’ where we are right now..if you don’t like the Republican nominee there is more at stake as to whether he is “conservative enough”…or a “RINO”.

The freedoms of this nation hangs in the balance…God forbid we lose the presidential race we need to capture the Senate and retain the house…its the only way we will be able to stop the “executive order” BS this president implements at every turn when he thinks he cant get anything through Congress..

lets stick together!!

LaRepublican on September 21, 2012 at 2:51 PM

LaRepublican on September 21, 2012 at 2:51 PM

They started it!!!

Cindy Munford on September 21, 2012 at 2:58 PM

I’m skeptical. Walker was supposed by Old Media and their pollsters to be finished and we saw how that actually turned out.

Not to suggest Thompson is exciting or anything but “Baldwin who?” is what first comes to mind at least outside Wisconsin.

viking01 on September 21, 2012 at 3:05 PM

Told you this a while ago. I will not vote for him. He f**ked up Wisconsin with his increased spending. He touts his welfare reform but completely neutralized it with his bigger and bigger shortfalls, which McCallum carried on, leading to Doyle coming in and setting the spending dial to 11.

Worthless fat old drunk.

MadisonConservative on September 21, 2012 at 1:24 PM

Support the Republican on the ticket or you are an Obama loving freedom hating Commie Pinko !!!!!/

portlandon on September 21, 2012 at 3:09 PM

Bing did the same thing. I’m going to try a few others. You would think a search of bumper stickers would be innocuous enough for fairness but you would be wrong.

Cindy Munford on September 21, 2012 at 2:34 PM

Microsoft is in the same re-elect Obama tank as Google. Melinda Gates is Sandra Fluky about contraception, and in terms of donations

Top Contributors to Barack Obama

University of California $491,868
Microsoft Corp $443,748
Google Inc $357,382

Basically the entire internet/media/entertainment complex will run interference till Nov. just like they did in 2008. I still use google because I need to for work, but don’t trust their commie politics at all, and we may have already reached the tipping point in terms of moochers.

sauldalinsky on September 21, 2012 at 3:14 PM

sauldalinsky on September 21, 2012 at 3:14 PM

So annoying.

Cindy Munford on September 21, 2012 at 3:27 PM

Do Wisconsinites really think electing a marxist/maoist dictator wannabe is better than electing a RINO?

yhxqqsn on September 21, 2012 at 3:42 PM

Thompson won’t go negative, but someone needs to point out Baldwin’s record. She’s a freaking loon.

Adjoran on September 21, 2012 at 4:17 PM

Basically the entire internet/media/entertainment complex will run interference till Nov. just like they did in 2008. I still use google because I need to for work, but don’t trust their commie politics at all, and we may have already reached the tipping point in terms of moochers.

sauldalinsky on September 21, 2012 at 3:14 PM

The search engines are in blockade mode. This wont end after the election. Ever since the new policy of ‘helping’ by restricting search results to match the ‘profile’ and historical needs of the searcher, the fix was in.

Not to mention folk working full time to push items beyond the page limit restrictions

At this stage, folk need a paid search engine, like used by news media, to get back the URLs being blockaded. However, that will not be the end of the story,

The era of web trust is over

Malicious invaders are peppering activists to restrict spread of info. This does not include the overseas invaders. China has decided Romney is a threat to their practice, and in that nation, professional web zapping is a full time civil service position

entagor on September 21, 2012 at 4:31 PM

Melinda Gates is Sandra Fluky about contraception, and in terms of donations

sauldalinsky on September 21, 2012 at 3:14 PM

OT, but how in the world did so many women have the stupid stick smack them in the head? Do they really believe contraception should be free, or that Republicans want to take their contraception from them?

Worthless fat old drunk.

MadisonConservative on September 21, 2012 at 1:24 PM

He may be that, but he’s our worthless, fat old drunk and, unfortunately, he’s the only choice in this race. I understand that he’s too old, and too establishment GOP. I would have preferred one of the TEA Partiers, but apparently there was more than one, and they split the vote.

I live in a blue state, so I truly understand your pain. ;o)

kakypat on September 21, 2012 at 4:36 PM

I saw this bumper sticker the other day.

“VOTE RIGHT TO SAVE WHAT IS LEFT”

I tried to find this on line and all the search engines pulled up Obama CRAP.

Cindy Munford on September 21, 2012 at 2:28 PM

I just googled “anti-obama bumper stickers”, a number of links came up.

riddick on September 21, 2012 at 4:44 PM

kakypat WELL SAID!

It should be understood that ANY of our candidates is better than ANY of their candidates. That includes Akin, Brown, Thompson etal. As the saying goes “we all hang together or we hang, period.” I don’t think too much of Romney either and I believe he’ll betray us on Obamacare but EVEN THIS is better than four more years of Obama!

MaiDee on September 21, 2012 at 5:35 PM

I’ve been using an “open source” search engine called Duck, Duck, Go! It doesn’t bias its search results and does not to track your search history.

Duck, Duck, Go! There is search syntax built in so that if you wanted to search other sites, you can do that (for example, to search Amazon you type !a “your search term”). It currently can search over 1,000 different sites.

italianguy626 on September 21, 2012 at 5:57 PM

It should be understood that ANY of our candidates is better than ANY of their candidates. That includes Akin, Brown, Thompson etal. As the saying goes “we all hang together or we hang, period.” I don’t think too much of Romney either and I believe he’ll betray us on Obamacare but EVEN THIS is better than four more years of Obama!

MaiDee on September 21, 2012 at 5:35 PM

Well said, yourself!

RE: Obamacare. Should a bill to repeal reach his presidential desk, I believe he will sign it. It’s the biggest promise he’s made, and will be run out of town on the rails if he reneges. I don’t say this because he’s my guy. He’s not…in fact, was my last choice. But, most of the country is against this crime called “obamacare”. He will, however, replace it with something, and I don’t know what that will be, which is scary.

kakypat on September 21, 2012 at 6:02 PM

italianguy626 on September 21, 2012 at 5:57 PM

Thank you for the info!

kakypat on September 21, 2012 at 6:32 PM

Thompson is a RINO squish from what I recall.

SouthernGent on September 21, 2012 at 1:27 PM

He was.

State government spending increased every year under Gov. Tommy Thompson – From 1992, the first year in which this data was available, state government spending increased every year under Thompson’s leadership. [US Census Bureau, State and Local Government Finance Historical Data]

Year — State Government Expenditures
1992 — 13,595,620
1993 — 14,620,876
1994 — 15,281,465
1995 — 16,301,863
1996 — 16,989,913
1997 — 18,199,533
1998 — 19,001,608
1999 — 20,465,757
2000 — 22,833,463
[Source: US Census Bureau, State and Local Government Finance Historical Data]

If we’re going to blame Obama for adding to the debt(and rightly so), we need to have no double standards.

MadisonConservative on September 21, 2012 at 1:30 PM

And remember we can just vote for someone else the next time around. Surely your not going to vote for Tammy the flaming progressive? I voted for Eric, but I think the dems crossed over and voted Tommy in. He will keep the seat warm for Eric or Fritz for the next go around. Don’t sit this one out, we need every vote Mad C.

wi farmgirl on September 21, 2012 at 7:20 PM

you know had any of those other three, you could have supported, decided to drop out, you wouldn’t have this problem.

JFKY on September 21, 2012 at 1:41 PM

Wow. Still you blame Thompson’s record on other free citizens running to represent their state. It would be mind-melting if not for the person posting it.

And while you’re using that twisted logic, let me twist it a bit more: if Thompson had decided to drop out, any of those other three would be polling far better. Walker’s win in June demonstrated that Wisconsin wants conservatism. Unlike you, and a few others here.

MadisonConservative on September 21, 2012 at 1:49 PM

Totally agree MC, We would have had a much more conservative to vote for.

wi farmgirl on September 21, 2012 at 7:26 PM

RE: Obamacare. Should a bill to repeal reach his presidential desk, I believe he will sign it. It’s the biggest promise he’s made, and will be run out of town on the rails if he reneges. I don’t say this because he’s my guy. He’s not…in fact, was my last choice. But, most of the country is against this crime called “obamacare”. He will, however, replace it with something, and I don’t know what that will be, which is scary.

kakypat on September 21, 2012 at 6:02 PM

Yep. He can’t not-sign it, and Congress will have to begin work on fixes to a few minor things re healthcare.

The huge black-hole trap that he could fall in is the ‘replace’ bullcrap. We don’t need a monster bill anywhere near the magnitude of Obamacare. We are far better off if we just go back to pre-Obamacare and do nothing, than plan some comparably grandiose monstrosity.

slickwillie2001 on September 21, 2012 at 8:05 PM

Could be that various seats are going to flip-flop between the parties as the voters give this party and then the other one a chance to fix things…and things pretty much stay the same.

What will be interesting is when most voters catch on that neither party is going to “fix” anything.

Also, again, I don’t think attacking unions/public employees is a good tactic, especially teachers. If they’re in the wrong, they’ll expose themselves and folks in their state will know about it.

These budget arguments are becoming increasingly meaningless. We’ve seen that they will “print” billions a month and bail out whomever it is politically expedient to bail out. Of course, this won’t last forever, but down the line may create a power vacuum for the Socialists and their financiers to fill.

Dr. ZhivBlago on September 21, 2012 at 8:35 PM

These budget arguments are becoming increasingly meaningless. We’ve seen that they will “print” billions a month and bail out whomever it is politically expedient to bail out. Of course, this won’t last forever, but down the line may create a power vacuum for the Socialists and their financiers to fill.

Dr. ZhivBlago on September 21, 2012 at 8:35 PM

I agree with this but the big point is that they will achieve the redistribution Obama has always wanted by printing enough money to fund all their favored groups while letting inflation rob the savings of those they do not favor. This will also inflate away much of the debt; but it will debase the currency and eventually make investment too uncertain and greatly lower our standard of living. We will have a shrinking pie that they will divide as they choose. Social Security will be paid with ever less valuable dollars but retirees are not Obama’s favored group. The Death Panels will keep Medicare from utter collapse by restricting procedures for the old who are not his favored group. The big question will be 2016. Will we have a really contested election, a rigged one, or will so many people be dependent on free goods from the government that they will trade their freedom for mere sustenance.

KW64 on September 21, 2012 at 10:43 PM

I’m curious whether or not some voters might be confused regarding the names; you have Tommy and Tammy…doesn’t get much more ridiculous than that.

It’s bad enough to have a first/last name redundancy, but to conflict with another campaigner…wowzers. On top of that it sounds like two kids’ names.

John Kettlewell on September 21, 2012 at 11:48 PM

These comments are hilarious. First it was “only Fox News and Rasmussen are valid polls”. Then it was “Fox News is in the tank for Obama, don’t believe any poll but Rasmussen”. Now it’s “no poll is accurate, the only one that matters is NOV 6″. And you’re right – NOV 6 is what matters. And what will happen that day is Obama winning rather easily. Get used to it. Your candidate stinks and a minority of voters strongly disagree with your philosophy.

So just keep on whistling past the graveyard where your hopes will soon be buried.

independentvoice on September 22, 2012 at 1:27 AM

No one is fired up about him here in Wisconsin

-Levinsomething

Oh dear Levinwhatever your name is, you are not feeling fired up, and you are entitled to be entertained come election time…boo hoo, grow up and buy the guys sign and put it on your lawn and act like a happy warrior. I am thinking it might be sore losers who didn’t get their candidate on that would rather see T.T. go down to prove they were right? SICKO.

Fleuries on September 22, 2012 at 9:44 AM

How is Baldwin managing to pull out in front? She has a seven-point lead among independents, 46/39

There’s your key … any Republican trailing among independents should be asking themselves how on earth that is possible. Tammy Baldwin is a union tool and a kook-fringe liberal … not a candidate who can appeal to independents. Thompson needs to hammer her in the middle.

Jaibones on September 22, 2012 at 11:00 AM

Year — State Government Expenditures
1992 — 13,595,620
1993 — 14,620,876
1994 — 15,281,465
1995 — 16,301,863
1996 — 16,989,913
1997 — 18,199,533
1998 — 19,001,608
1999 — 20,465,757
2000 — 22,833,463
[Source: US Census Bureau, State and Local Government Finance Historical Data]

If we’re going to blame Obama for adding to the debt(and rightly so), we need to have no double standards.

MadisonConservative on September 21, 2012 at 1:30 PM

Are those inflation adjusted?

astonerii on September 22, 2012 at 8:24 PM

This is what happens when people make the mistake of thinking any ole republican will do as well as a true Conservative.

When/if we lose this year can we finally consider running true Conservatives for a change?

DannoJyd on September 23, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Scott Walker was on Fox news Sunday and I guess he hit a radio station this week, back seat driving for Mitt Romney. Why doesn’t he campaign for Thompson, that should be his number one responsibility, and take the real message of the tax cuts that the 47% seem to not be interested in, and bring it to the people of WI.

Scott should be unifying his party in WI, he is weak, he is not playing it right, his republican base is all confused about whether they should condescend to vote for Thompson. Ok, Scott, I will let you drive.

Fleuries on September 23, 2012 at 1:05 PM

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