Gallup tracker: Romney now even with Obama at 47

posted at 2:41 pm on September 20, 2012 by Allahpundit

Eight days ago it was 50/44, today it’s a dead heat. I already wrote about O’s fade (or, more accurately, his disappearing convention bounce) in the Gallup tracker two days ago, so read that if you missed it then. What makes this poll interesting isn’t the raw numbers but the fact that he’s still on a downward slope despite two days of media hyperventilation over Romney’s “47 percent” remarks. That did hurt Romney a little, but if it was any sort of gamechanger I assume we’d already be seeing some evidence in tracking polls. We’re not seeing that in Gallup.

But … maybe we are in Rasmussen?

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows President Obama attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns 45% of the vote. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.

When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 50% and Romney 47%.

Ras had Romney ahead 47/45 on Tuesday, when I flagged O’s decline in the Gallup tracker, and 47/46 yesterday. Today, suddenly, there’s a swing towards Obama putting him back in front. Is that fallout from the “47 percent” kerfuffle or statistical noise or something else? Compounding the strangeness is that Gallup polls registered voters for its tracker while Rasmussen polls likelies, which typically are more favorable to Republicans, and yet it’s Gallup that has Romney even with O.

But wait, let’s make this stranger still. While Gallup is showing swing-state enthusiasm spiking for Democrats, Rasmussen just dropped this data from the eternally important state of Iowa:

Mitt Romney remains slightly ahead in the swing state of Iowa.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Iowa Voters shows Romney with 47% support to President Obama’s 44%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and five percent (5%) are still undecided.

So O’s picking up steam in Rasmussen’s tracker, but is flat and trailing in a key swing state that he won by nearly 10 points four years ago. Sufficiently confused yet? No? Okay, then let me drop this on you — from, of all places, Fox News:

President Barack Obama has the edge over Republican Mitt Romney in three potentially decisive states in the presidential election.

Obama tops Romney by seven percentage points among likely voters in both Ohio (49-42 percent) and Virginia (50-43 percent). In Florida, the president holds a five-point edge (49-44 percent)…

The good news for Romney is that among voters who are “extremely” interested in this year’s election, the races are much tighter. Obama is up by just two points with this group in Virginia (49-47 percent), Florida is tied (48-48 percent), and Romney is up by one point in Ohio (48-47 percent).

Those polls were conducted from September 16th through the 18th — the very day that Rasmussen had Romney going up two points on Obama in his daily national tracker. I have no explanations on how to square all of this data. But if I have to deal with this madness every day then, darn it, so do you.


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It’s the year of 47.

Schadenfreude on September 20, 2012 at 2:41 PM

Wondering how many will attack AllahP, and how…now.

Schadenfreude on September 20, 2012 at 2:42 PM

“Obama doesn’t have to win so long as Romney shoots himself in the foot” — Old Media

Schadenfreude on September 20, 2012 at 2:43 PM

Something got AP out of bed before 5pm? I’m stunned.

lorien1973 on September 20, 2012 at 2:43 PM

This thread will be swarming with trolls instantly. For some reason they can’t seem to pass up a poll. It must be that trolls have a special affinity for polls.

thatsafactjack on September 20, 2012 at 2:44 PM

Please ignore all the other polls out there. Focus on these teabagger oriented landline polls.

I know you whistlepots live on RCP, so you know your man here is just trying to make the best of a horribly awesome situation.

tommyhawk on September 20, 2012 at 2:44 PM

Gallup to be investigated soon.

Schadenfreude on September 20, 2012 at 2:44 PM

It’s the year of 47.

Schadenfreude on September 20, 2012 at 2:41 PM

Did you know Barack Obama was 47 years old when elected President?

[gasp]

Doughboy on September 20, 2012 at 2:45 PM

cue Russell Brand????

ted c on September 20, 2012 at 2:45 PM

Can I just point out that there are so many pictures of Bam on this blog it looks like the wall of a shut in stalkers house. I am surprised his eyes aren’t cut out.

You guys gotta learn to love some Mitt.

tommyhawk on September 20, 2012 at 2:46 PM

If I see one more post on the latest poll I’m going to puke.

ulyses on September 20, 2012 at 2:46 PM

Poor Allah. can’t figure it out.

WELL NEITHER CAN WE!

I saw on newsmax a question asking can Romney come back.

since we haven’t actually had an election yet

I guess it means coming back from a BAD POLL.

What are we coming to.

gerrym51 on September 20, 2012 at 2:46 PM

tommyhawk on September 20, 2012 at 2:44 PM

Wow. You finished the spaghettios Mom made you for lunch, already? Did you make a happy plate?

kingsjester on September 20, 2012 at 2:47 PM

O/T but this weeks jobs numbers are “funny” in the strange meaning..

Down 3,000 from last week which was revised up by 3,000.
Both now at 382,000.

Of course, worse than expected.

No word from Gumby on any of todays polls.

Jabberwock on September 20, 2012 at 2:47 PM

47….47.. it’s a magic number. Why? Why is a schoolhouse rock jingle popping into my head? it’s a prime number right. 4+7=11, 1+1=2 and 2 could mean a 2nd term, wauuughhhh!!!

nightmare indeed.

just kidding. I thinks BO is going to get beaten like a redheaded stepchild.

ted c on September 20, 2012 at 2:47 PM

gumby and pokemon to be here soon to called the race for the Unicorn Prince

gsherin on September 20, 2012 at 2:47 PM

Thanks for watching the polling Allahpundit. My head just spins with the information and the crazy numbers coming out and the breakdown of the internals. Knowing what I know now —the only poll that is going to matter is Nov 6th — everyone must go vote.

CoffeeLover on September 20, 2012 at 2:48 PM

The Fox state polls have too many Dems. Their Florida poll has party ID of D+5, in the 2008 Florida exits it was D+3.

Jon0815 on September 20, 2012 at 2:48 PM

The consistant message of almost all of the polls is that, the incumbent, Obama polls at an average of 47%; that’s not good. Sometimes Romney’s up, sometimes down, but Obama’s 47% almost never changes.

Tater Salad on September 20, 2012 at 2:48 PM

Race tied at 47-47 at 47 days to go after Romney alienates 47% of the electorate.

And ’47 was the year that Jack Kerouac drove across the US which he later wrote about in On the Road, the great novel celebrating American freedom.

And 47 is the number of valid reason why Obama should be impeached.

Zombie on September 20, 2012 at 2:48 PM

Didn’t Rasmussen also just release polls over the last 2 days showing Romney up in New Hampshire and Colorado? Plus he’s ahead in Iowa? That’s 19 EVs total right there. That would more than offset O-I-H-O’s 18 if God forbid that state acts stupidly on Election Day(although Romney would still need Florida and Virginia).

Doughboy on September 20, 2012 at 2:49 PM

“Trolls have a special affinity for polls”
Messina ‘n Adolph send in the drolls
“Obama has won” they claim
“It’s over, you lost your game”
tommyhawk grabbed the fishing poles

Schadenfreude on September 20, 2012 at 2:49 PM

47, Count it!

rob verdi on September 20, 2012 at 2:50 PM

Just go to the RCP average and that usually nails the final result.

But IA has always been a better chance of a pickup than WI due to the lack of black voters in the state.

The election still hinges on winning Florida, Ohio and Virginia. The rest will fall into place.

gumbyandpokey on September 20, 2012 at 2:50 PM

FOX farms out their polling just so they CAN’T be accused of leaning right. I have no idea who does do it though, but they are ALWAYS higher for Obama.

BettyRuth on September 20, 2012 at 2:51 PM

Schadenfreude on September 20, 2012 at 2:49 PM

Excellent! lol!

thatsafactjack on September 20, 2012 at 2:51 PM

As it looks right now, Romney may take Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire and Florida. If Romney also takes Wisconsin, and Obama takes one electoral vote from Nebraska, then it’s a tie, 269 to 269. And Romney becomes the next President as a result of the vote in the House to elect the President.

WordsMatter on September 20, 2012 at 2:51 PM

Trippi & Rollins were just on FOX saying basically:

1. The trend is more important than the numbers but only comparing the same poll to itself, not to other polls because of different methodologies used;
2. All these polls don’t really mean anything other than to give pundits something to talk about; the campaigns don’t use them, they use their own internal polling where they look for specific things and both camps will tell you it’s a dead heat;
3. Rollins worked a campaign in NJ where his candidate was down more than 10 with 5 weeks to go & Trippi worked one in VA where his guy was down 20 points with 18 days to go. Both turned it around & won, so to try to say a presidential race within 2, 3, or 5 with 7 weeks to go is “over” is ridiculous.
4. Megan asked how did they turn those two campaigns around & they both agreed that is where the internal polling comes into play but you have to be able to say “OK, we need to change course here.”
5. Most important thing is going to be turnout (duh).

Dark Star on September 20, 2012 at 2:51 PM

Here is what is happening. The polls are going to start holding at the 47% mark so that liberals can continue to complain that Romney dissed EITHER 47% depending on the meme of the day.

nitzsche on September 20, 2012 at 2:51 PM

The Muppets have lost their shine for me with all their pushing of Obama.

Betrayed by Miss Piggy :(

gophergirl on September 20, 2012 at 2:51 PM

And Obama will get 47% of the vote in November.

happytobehere on September 20, 2012 at 2:51 PM

gumby and pokemon to be here soon to called the race for the Unicorn Prince

where is he. i expect him soon

gerrym51 on September 20, 2012 at 2:51 PM

Gallup tracker: Romney now even with Obama at 47

Lies…. all Lies… Obama Trolls to show up in mass and refudiate those LIES in 3…2…1…

SWalker on September 20, 2012 at 2:51 PM

Mitt Romney remains slightly ahead in the swing state of Iowa.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Iowa Voters shows Romney with 47% support to President Obama’s 44%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and five percent (5%) are still undecided.

That’s the first IA poll we’ve had in awhile. You had to think the Obama camp thought they were weak there, considering that’s where he camped out for three days during the RNC. It’ll be interesting to see where other polls show the race there. If the trend holds, then Romney will have 3 (IN, and NC hopefully, too) of the six he needs to flip, leaving everything in the hands of OH, VA, and FL. THAT’S where the airwaves need to be flooded.

changer1701 on September 20, 2012 at 2:52 PM

Please ignore all the other polls out there. Focus on these teabagger oriented landline polls.

tommyhawk on September 20, 2012 at 2:44 PM

It’s tough to be as ignorant as you are, but it seems that you’re really dedicated to the cause. Keep fighting.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110383/does-gallup-call-cell-phones.aspx

strictnein on September 20, 2012 at 2:52 PM

This is all making me very nervous. I keep telling myself to stay off the internet until Nov. 7, but that would be harder than quitting smoking. It’s not going to happen.

bopbottle on September 20, 2012 at 2:53 PM

I thought the number 42 was the answer to everything

ConservativePartyNow on September 20, 2012 at 2:53 PM

tommyhawk on September 20, 2012 at 2:46 PM

You never read what AP posted, you little creep.

Schadenfreude on September 20, 2012 at 2:54 PM

But IA has always been a better chance of a pickup than WI due to the lack of black voters in the state.
gumbyandpokey on September 20, 2012 at 2:50 PM

Dude, then why doesn’t Vermont and Maine vote Republican all day, every day?

Iowa was always a better chance for a pick up b/c Repubs outnumber Dems in that state.

WordsMatter on September 20, 2012 at 2:54 PM

This thread will be swarming with trolls instantly. For some reason they can’t seem to pass up a poll. It must be that trolls have a special affinity for polls.

thatsafactjack on September 20, 2012 at 2:44 PM

That’s just the way they roll.

Bouncing Beatnik on September 20, 2012 at 2:54 PM

As it looks right now, Romney may take Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire and Florida. If Romney also takes Wisconsin, and Obama takes one electoral vote from Nebraska, then it’s a tie, 269 to 269. And Romney becomes the next President as a result of the vote in the House to elect the President.

it is true the house votes. but i believe each state gets only one congressman. don’t ask me why.

gerrym51 on September 20, 2012 at 2:54 PM

Hi Jackie! Good to see you during the day.

OK, lunch break is over, see you later! :-)

Dark Star on September 20, 2012 at 2:55 PM

scroll by the troll guy

Rio Linda Refugee on September 20, 2012 at 2:55 PM

This is what we see. I think he knows he’s toast. There’s just a “I’m going to go out with a B A N G” vibe coming from him, by pretty much everything he’s done and said since the Embassy attacks.

tru2tx on September 20, 2012 at 2:55 PM

Dark Star on September 20, 2012 at 2:55 PM

Very nice to see you, too, Dark Star! :)

thatsafactjack on September 20, 2012 at 2:56 PM

Romney had a lead.  It is now gone, as the three-day rolling poll numbers are now picking up the reaction to Romney’s screw-ups.  I’m willing to wager we see this widen in the coming days to +5 or so for Obama, and worse, some of the state tracking polls are likely to shift with the most-important being Florida and Ohio.

I remind everyone that if Romney loses Florida he has to basically “run the table” to win, and as recently as a few days ago he was down (but within the margin of reasonable error and swing) in nearly all of the “open to contest” states.

RealClear now shows the electoral map as 247/191, with 100 toss-ups.  A reminder — you need 270 to win, and Florida is 29, so if you believe their maps a loss of Florida alone now ends the race and a loss of Ohio means he must win every other open state other than New Hampshire.

This race appears to be coming down to two states as I said some time ago — Florida and Ohio — and Romney must win both or he loses. 

The odds are getting longer by the day on that, so if he has pictures of Obama with a sheep or something similarly-damaging he had better use it.

davemason2k on September 20, 2012 at 2:56 PM

Just go to the RCP average and that usually nails the final result.

But IA has always been a better chance of a pickup than WI due to the lack of black voters in the state.

The election still hinges on winning Florida, Ohio and Virginia. The rest will fall into place.

gumbyandpokey on September 20, 2012 at 2:50 PM

Wow, I can’t believe I’m agreeing with gumby on something. Well, maybe not Wisconsin. Romney’s got a very good shot at that state thanks to Walker’s success and Ryan’s popularity there.

But that triumvirate of FL, OH, and VA are the election pretty much. Romney wins those(he’s already got NC and IN), then he just needs to pick off one more state. Even New Hampshire’s 4 measly EVs would suffice.

Doughboy on September 20, 2012 at 2:56 PM

Flood the court in Ohio, Virginia, and Florida. Romney and Ryan need to meet with every single voter in each of those states who are located in majority Repub precincts, and I’m serious, every single one.

WordsMatter on September 20, 2012 at 2:56 PM

I’m impressed. So many poets on this thread. :)

thatsafactjack on September 20, 2012 at 2:57 PM

Gallup on Romney’s “47%” Comments

36% less likely to vote for Romney (Dem base)

20% more likely to vote for Romney

43% won’t make a difference

Bottomline:
63% say Romney’s comments either make no difference or make it more likely to vote for Romney.

kevinkristy on September 20, 2012 at 2:57 PM

We are the ones we’ve been waiting for.

El_Terrible on September 20, 2012 at 2:57 PM

They’re polls, 6 1/2 weeks out from an election. Essentially, the race is tied right now. Why drive ourselves crazy trying to understand these things?

Waggoner on September 20, 2012 at 2:58 PM

This thread will be swarming with trolls instantly. For some reason they can’t seem to pass up a poll. It must be that trolls have a special affinity for polls.

thatsafactjack on September 20, 2012 at 2:44 PM

I think their handlers dispatch them to pollute certain threads, so you always get Gumby and maybe sesquiwhatever and tommyhawk to troll the poll threads.

Right Mover on September 20, 2012 at 2:58 PM

As it looks right now, Romney may take Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire and Florida. If Romney also takes Wisconsin, and Obama takes one electoral vote from Nebraska, then it’s a tie, 269 to 269. And Romney becomes the next President as a result of the vote in the House to elect the President.

WordsMatter on September 20, 2012 at 2:51 PM

It’s close in PA too according to internals Romney is down by 1

workingclass artist on September 20, 2012 at 2:58 PM

Trippi & Rollins were just on FOX saying basically:

5. Most important thing is going to be turnout (duh).

Dark Star on September 20, 2012 at 2:51 PM

I’ve been saying that for over a month. These guys get paid for their “expertise”?

Doughboy on September 20, 2012 at 2:58 PM

Stop obsessing with the polls folks. Look around you if you think that 1 out of 10 Obama 2008 “White Voters” switching to Romney in 2012 combined with lower energy on the democrat side than 2008 then Romney is going to win. The Math cannot be wrong.

Below are the numbers that would make Romney win the following battleground states. If you think that this is happening in your state then Romney is going to win. I am very confident that Romney is going to win. Of course Romney does not need all these battleground states to win the elections.

Florida (5% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters staying home)
Ohio (7% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters staying home)
Virginia (8% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters staying home)
North Carolina (0% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters staying home)
Colorado (10% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters staying home)
Iowa (7% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters staying home)
New Hampshire (10% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters staying home)
Wisconsin ( 14% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters staying home)
Minnesota (12% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters staying home)
Nevada ( 17% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters staying home)
Michigan (18% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters staying home)
Pennsylvania (19% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters staying home)

mnjg on September 20, 2012 at 2:58 PM

I’m impressed. So many poets on this thread. :)

thatsafactjack on September 20, 2012 at 2:57 PM

Roses are Red,
Violets are Blue
Obama trolls suck
and they swallow too..

SWalker on September 20, 2012 at 2:59 PM

I have never in my long life of voting looked so forward to voting against bho in Nov.! Please others, vote R&R, DO NOT stay home, DO NOT vote 3rd, thank you!
L

letget on September 20, 2012 at 2:59 PM

I love Fox News, but their polling sucks. Always has. Remember that had that fraud Kerry up 2 on election day.

We know why Oblowme is spending so much time in Iowa.

Mitt will be back up in Rass in a day or two. Watch.

anchorman on September 20, 2012 at 2:59 PM

One thing I know for sure is that FoxNews polls are garbage and can be safely ignored.

I suspect the Rasmussen poll is noise. I’d expect that O+3 to start subsiding again tomorrow.

I’m still not that worried about day-to-day polls, though. Based on the economic environment, the foreign policy blunders, and common sense, Romney will win this election going away. Even the Reagan/Carter election didn’t break until late.

DRayRaven on September 20, 2012 at 3:00 PM

And Obama will get 47% of the vote in November.

happytobehere on September 20, 2012 at 2:51 PM

Give them 48.

Schadenfreude on September 20, 2012 at 3:00 PM

Let the thrashing begin. It’s taken a while for people to a)keep hoping for results from the feckless lump currently in office, b) to realize that the man is a snake oil salesman without any clue how to start a recovery, and c)they’ve seen our embassies attacked over and over and over again over the past week and it’s probably just now dawning on them that we just don’t have as many friends out there as Mr. President promised we would have. Once he parted the seas and all that crap.

scalleywag on September 20, 2012 at 3:00 PM

It’ll come down to the debates.

Romney better hammer him, relentlessly, in each debate.

Time to take the gloves off.

catmman on September 20, 2012 at 3:01 PM

Roses are Red Most roses are read
Violets are Blue Some violets are blue
Obama trolls suck
and they swallow too..

SWalker on September 20, 2012 at 2:59 PM

Schadenfreude on September 20, 2012 at 3:01 PM

Give them 48.

Schadenfreude on September 20, 2012 at 3:00 PM

How about we settle for giving him a pink slip and an eviction notice… ;p

SWalker on September 20, 2012 at 3:01 PM

Right Mover on September 20, 2012 at 2:58 PM

EWWW! Troll handler.

Well, there’s a job that’s probably pretty hard to fill!

thatsafactjack on September 20, 2012 at 3:01 PM

Er, some roses are read :)

Schadenfreude on September 20, 2012 at 3:01 PM

What do you think Romney’s popular vote percentage will be in Utah? I’m going with 87 percent.

WordsMatter on September 20, 2012 at 3:01 PM

SWalker on September 20, 2012 at 2:59 PM

Schadenfreude on September 20, 2012 at 3:01 PM

Damned literary critics are everywhere… ;p

SWalker on September 20, 2012 at 3:02 PM

How about we settle for giving him a pink slip and an eviction notice… ;p

SWalker on September 20, 2012 at 3:01 PM

And mock the circus clowns out of town, so that such an hoax never, ever gets repeated upon the good land.

Schadenfreude on September 20, 2012 at 3:02 PM

Just go to the RCP average and that usually nails the final result.

gumbyandpokey on September 20, 2012 at 2:50 PM

Um, no.

joejm65 on September 20, 2012 at 3:02 PM

New PA GOP poll has Romney one point away from Obama

jazzmo on September 20, 2012 at 3:00 PM

I’m always skeptical about internal polling. And I’m REALLY skeptical about Pennsylvania. That state has teased us way too many times. It would be a landslide if Romney stole that one from Obama.

Doughboy on September 20, 2012 at 3:02 PM

The bottom line is you MUST go out and vote. Grab your friends and make them vote (for Romney, of course).

SouthernGent on September 20, 2012 at 3:02 PM

Sean Trende’s analysis of the polls on RCP explains all of this pretty nicely, actually.

neoavatara on September 20, 2012 at 3:03 PM

Damned literary critics are everywhere… ;p

SWalker on September 20, 2012 at 3:02 PM

No, not literary :)

Schadenfreude on September 20, 2012 at 3:03 PM

I never thought this day would happen. I won’t have to work on puttin’ gas in my car. I won’t have to work at payin’ my mortgage.
You know. If I help Obama, he’s gonna help me.

El_Terrible on September 20, 2012 at 3:03 PM

My guess is that most people realize Obama needs to go, but they aren’t (yet) convinced that Romney will be much better. If that reading is correct, I’d rather be Romney.

Mr. D on September 20, 2012 at 3:03 PM

And Obama will get 47% of the vote in November.

happytobehere on September 20, 2012 at 2:51 PM

Give them 48.

Schadenfreude on September 20, 2012 at 3:00 PM

As long as he doesn’t get a majority of the electoral votes I could care less.

Rio Linda Refugee on September 20, 2012 at 3:03 PM

Schadenfreude on September 20, 2012 at 3:01 PM

You guys are too cool for school! :)

thatsafactjack on September 20, 2012 at 3:04 PM

One thing I know for sure is that FoxNews polls are garbage and can be safely ignored.

I suspect the Rasmussen poll is noise. I’d expect that O+3 to start subsiding again tomorrow.

I’m still not that worried about day-to-day polls, though. Based on the economic environment, the foreign policy blunders, and common sense, Romney will win this election going away. Even the Reagan/Carter election didn’t break until late.

DRayRaven on September 20, 2012 at 3:00 PM

Yeah this sounds completely unhinged and stupid. But the thing is, if you squint really hard it really makes perfect sense.

tommyhawk on September 20, 2012 at 3:04 PM

And mock the circus clowns out of town, so that such an hoax never, ever gets repeated upon the good land.

Schadenfreude on September 20, 2012 at 3:02 PM

How do you mock someone who doesn’t have the moral or ethical ability to grasp that they are evil?

SWalker on September 20, 2012 at 3:04 PM

I think I know the problem.

All of the pollsters are trying to gauge voter enthusiasm and are adjusting their samples accordingly. It could very well be that the raw data is not changing at all. It is only the suppositions used by the pollsters that is changing.

In other words, we are not seeing the reality of the race as much as the pollsters perception of that reality. Will this be 2008 or 2010 or something in between. There’s the rub.

** People assume that FoxNews gives Republicans a fair shake in their sample because they are FoxNews. Unfortunately that is incorrect. In every one of the swings states announced today, Obama’s lead is basically equal to the Dem oversample used. What does this mean? The race is tied if likely turnout numbers are used.

One other thing odd I have noticed about FoxNews polling on several occasions. While pretty much all other pollsters including, Rasmussen, Gallup, CNN and CBS give Romney a large lead with Indepedents, FoxNews has regularly had Obama either tied or leading with Independents. Who knows why this is but it clearly affects the top line.

mitchellvii on September 20, 2012 at 3:04 PM

I lost faith in Fox’s pollster when it handed 41% of the sample to Democrats. Yes, at a glance it didn’t show democrats outnumbering Republicans by, INSANE amounts, but that is a much larger share of the overall electorate than they had in 2008.

Normally, independents make up a little under 30% of the vote, sometimes a little more. Fox had them in the teens. That means that Romney could’ve won independents by an overwhelming margin and still lost.

In other words, the polls methodology was rigged. Interestingly, several other pollsters are now doing the exact same thing.

WolvenOne on September 20, 2012 at 3:05 PM

Gallup on Romney’s “47%” Comments

36% less likely to vote for Romney (Dem base)

20% more likely to vote for Romney

43% won’t make a difference

Bottomline:
63% say Romney’s comments either make no difference or make it more likely to vote for Romney.

kevinkristy on September 20, 2012 at 2:57 PM

In other words, he didn’t even offend all of that 47%…

Couple that with the very intelligent “scandalous” statements regarding the impossibility of the two-state solution and that leak may have been the clincher for the Romney campaign.

Gingotts on September 20, 2012 at 3:05 PM

No, not literary :)

Schadenfreude on September 20, 2012 at 3:03 PM

Well, I’m pretty sure your poetic license was suspended last year… ;p

SWalker on September 20, 2012 at 3:05 PM

We are the ones we’ve been waiting for.

El_Terrible on September 20, 2012 at 2:57 PM

The mythological figures must be sent where they came from.

Schadenfreude on September 20, 2012 at 3:05 PM

That PA poll is something! But I will believe it when I see it on electin day.

anchorman on September 20, 2012 at 3:06 PM

SWalker on September 20, 2012 at 3:05 PM

I just humor Limerick and make Jackie smile.

Schadenfreude on September 20, 2012 at 3:06 PM

Also, at this point in time, Carter was CRUSHING Romney in the polls and we all know how that turned out.

Poetic justice final result: Romney 53/47

mitchellvii on September 20, 2012 at 3:06 PM

Obama’s cookin’
up some dead baby puddin’
Obama’s lookin’
for a bounce in aborshin

he’s fillin’ quotas
homos females and Latinas
he’s killin’ Willahd
with blacks and the dead squad

Slade73 on September 20, 2012 at 3:06 PM

Schadenfreude on September 20, 2012 at 3:06 PM

That, you do!:)

thatsafactjack on September 20, 2012 at 3:07 PM

If I don’t have this done in three years, then we’re looking at a ONE TERM proposition.

El_Terrible on September 20, 2012 at 3:07 PM

All while the enthusiasm poll states something different. Sure it all makes sense. I think I need to quit reading polls – I don’t know if Romney is popular enough to win, but I know Obama is unpopular enough to lose. He is absolutely dead on the ground.

Zomcon JEM on September 20, 2012 at 3:08 PM

Poetic justice final result: Romney 53/47

mitchellvii on September 20, 2012 at 3:06 PM

No, poetic justice would be Romney 99/1

SWalker on September 20, 2012 at 3:08 PM

tommyhawk on September 20, 2012 at 3:04 PM

Why don’t you take a nice, long vacation in Benghazi and let Obama arrange your security?

DRayRaven on September 20, 2012 at 3:08 PM

Allah,

Don’t forget, Alice Cooper is a Republican!

Lance Murdock on September 20, 2012 at 3:08 PM

In other words, all of the crap the Democrat Media has been throwing at Romney over the past 7 days hasn’t even hit him.

Too funny.

Del Dolemonte on September 20, 2012 at 3:09 PM

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