Gallup tracker: Romney now even with Obama at 47

posted at 2:41 pm on September 20, 2012 by Allahpundit

Eight days ago it was 50/44, today it’s a dead heat. I already wrote about O’s fade (or, more accurately, his disappearing convention bounce) in the Gallup tracker two days ago, so read that if you missed it then. What makes this poll interesting isn’t the raw numbers but the fact that he’s still on a downward slope despite two days of media hyperventilation over Romney’s “47 percent” remarks. That did hurt Romney a little, but if it was any sort of gamechanger I assume we’d already be seeing some evidence in tracking polls. We’re not seeing that in Gallup.

But … maybe we are in Rasmussen?

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows President Obama attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns 45% of the vote. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.

When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 50% and Romney 47%.

Ras had Romney ahead 47/45 on Tuesday, when I flagged O’s decline in the Gallup tracker, and 47/46 yesterday. Today, suddenly, there’s a swing towards Obama putting him back in front. Is that fallout from the “47 percent” kerfuffle or statistical noise or something else? Compounding the strangeness is that Gallup polls registered voters for its tracker while Rasmussen polls likelies, which typically are more favorable to Republicans, and yet it’s Gallup that has Romney even with O.

But wait, let’s make this stranger still. While Gallup is showing swing-state enthusiasm spiking for Democrats, Rasmussen just dropped this data from the eternally important state of Iowa:

Mitt Romney remains slightly ahead in the swing state of Iowa.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Iowa Voters shows Romney with 47% support to President Obama’s 44%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and five percent (5%) are still undecided.

So O’s picking up steam in Rasmussen’s tracker, but is flat and trailing in a key swing state that he won by nearly 10 points four years ago. Sufficiently confused yet? No? Okay, then let me drop this on you — from, of all places, Fox News:

President Barack Obama has the edge over Republican Mitt Romney in three potentially decisive states in the presidential election.

Obama tops Romney by seven percentage points among likely voters in both Ohio (49-42 percent) and Virginia (50-43 percent). In Florida, the president holds a five-point edge (49-44 percent)…

The good news for Romney is that among voters who are “extremely” interested in this year’s election, the races are much tighter. Obama is up by just two points with this group in Virginia (49-47 percent), Florida is tied (48-48 percent), and Romney is up by one point in Ohio (48-47 percent).

Those polls were conducted from September 16th through the 18th — the very day that Rasmussen had Romney going up two points on Obama in his daily national tracker. I have no explanations on how to square all of this data. But if I have to deal with this madness every day then, darn it, so do you.


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Comment pages: 1 2 3

Yeah…that story gets worse every day.

I don’t think Obama’s Pakistani Apology TV commercials are helping either.

workingclass artist on September 20, 2012 at 3:59 PM

But the majority of America doesn’t know any of this! The media has kept the facts so far away from news most people watch- I was just this morning trying to tell my sister the facts about this whole Middle East mess, and she was looking at me like I was telling her about flying saucers. I quote- “IF all that was happening, it’d be all over the news”. Now, I’m not proud to be related to a low information voter, (who calls herself independent) but she believes in her Brian Williams and Diane Sawyer. THIS is the challenge; getting facts to people like this.

BettyRuth on September 20, 2012 at 4:32 PM

The polls are just crazy. They really are.

Terrye on September 20, 2012 at 4:34 PM

We need more of these.

MontanaMmmm on September 20, 2012 at 4:35 PM

“Now that I’ve posted something that’s not a poll, I will reveal this is actually a disguised poll post. Gallup now has it as 47-47 tie, and furthermore, has Obama slipping back negative on job approval, 46 approving, 48 disapproving.

Romney is meanwhile set to release a barrage of “positive” ads that quickly state “his plan”… in 30 seconds. I don’t really like the ads… but that’s not terribly important. No one’s trying to persuade me at this point.

Luntz’s Dunces do like them. 81% of Republicans like them, and even 60% of Democrats.
(I assume Independents would be somewhere between these.)..” – Ace AOSHQ

http://minx.cc/?post=333035

workingclass artist on September 20, 2012 at 4:39 PM

WordsMatter on September 20, 2012 at 2:51 PM

Obama will NOT win an electoral vote from Nebraska this time.

NebCon on September 20, 2012 at 4:41 PM

Now, I’m not proud to be related to a low information voter, (who calls herself independent) but she believes in her Brian Williams and Diane Sawyer. THIS is the challenge; getting facts to people like this.

BettyRuth on September 20, 2012 at 4:32 PM

Introduce her to Drudge Report

Tell her that’s what Diane and Brian begin each morning with…

workingclass artist on September 20, 2012 at 4:41 PM

gumbyandpokey on September 20, 2012 at 3:12 PM

Why do you want the country Downgraded?

Chip on September 20, 2012 at 3:14 PM

Free Stuff!

Del Dolemonte on September 20, 2012 at 4:42 PM

Take a look on Drudge at the picture of bho! That is one smug, snotty, if I don’t get my way if ever I have seen one?

What IS with that lower lip that looks full of ‘chew’? How does bho do that?
L

letget on September 20, 2012 at 4:42 PM

Wait until the debates when Romney points out REAL UNEMPLOYMENT of 20%, and points out that Ambassador Stevens was TORTURED and MURDERED in an Al Qaeda attack, and the preezy AND THE MEDIA covered it up. Wait for that. The preezy will be foaming at the mouth.

Rational Thought on September 20, 2012 at 3:42 PM

Yeah…that story gets worse every day.

I don’t think Obama’s Pakistani Apology TV commercials are helping either.

workingclass artist on September 20, 2012 at 3:59 PM

What pakistani apology tv ads?

jimver on September 20, 2012 at 4:45 PM

gumbyandpokey on September 20, 2012 at 3:12 PM

When Obama loses in a landslide that makes Reagan’s look like a close race, please be sure to have someone post your suicide video to youtube.

SWalker on September 20, 2012 at 3:15 PM

I will be ready to accept my accolades on election night.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 12:07 PM

Del Dolemonte on September 20, 2012 at 4:46 PM

What pakistani apology tv ads?

This is on foxnation.

http://nation.foxnews.com/president-obama/2012/09/20/obama-and-hillary-apologize-free-speech-pakistani-tv
L

letget on September 20, 2012 at 4:48 PM

Despite the conservative tilt of their news coverage, Fox News polls often use Democrat-heavy samples.

Steve Z on September 20, 2012 at 3:20 PM

I’ve been telling the Leftist Faux-Haters that for years and years, and they still refuse to believe it.

During the 8 years that Clenis was pResident, the Faux News polls regularly had his Job Approval slightly higher than many of the others.

Del Dolemonte on September 20, 2012 at 4:48 PM

This is on foxnation.

http://nation.foxnews.com/president-obama/2012/09/20/obama-and-hillary-apologize-free-speech-pakistani-tv
L

letget on September 20, 2012 at 4:48 PM

Thanks, I am on vacation and I didn’t check fox online too much since I got here…

jimver on September 20, 2012 at 4:51 PM

Poles are what gumbypoked got his thrills from in the miserable life of his.

bayview on September 20, 2012 at 3:29 PM

I’ve decided that out of respect for my Polish friends, one of whom just replaced the starter in my car, I will from now on abstain from calling polls “poles”.

Del Dolemonte on September 20, 2012 at 4:51 PM

You see this kind of headline hackery all the time at Gallup.

mitchellvii on September 20, 2012 at 3:37 PM

Gallup used to be the Gold Standard of Public Opinion Polling, but that all changed after founder George Gallup sold the company in 1998. It still bears his name, but that’s about all.

And they were forever tainted ethically by their polling partnership with the totally corrupt CNN. What’s so hilarious is that CNN then tossed them overboard so they could hire Bill and Hillary Clinton Groupie Vindo Gupta’s firm, ORC, in 2007, solely to help get Hillary elected pResident.

That worked out real well, didn’t it?

Del Dolemonte on September 20, 2012 at 4:55 PM

The pollsters know how to get the results they are looking for.

FlaMurph on September 20, 2012 at 4:29 PM

Exactly. John Zogby actually admitted that he regularly would do “polls” over the weekend to guarantee a positive outcome for the Democrats who were paying him.

Speaking of Zog, haven’t seen much from him this year. Wonder why?

Del Dolemonte on September 20, 2012 at 4:58 PM

The Romney Death Star is slowing moving into position and ready to drown out Barry and the MSM’s message with an onslaught of ads. They have to drown out the Democrat noise from Oct. to Nov. and plant *firmly* in the minds of voters all of Barry’s FAILURES.

Punchenko on September 20, 2012 at 5:07 PM

Introduce her to Drudge Report

Tell her that’s what Diane and Brian begin each morning with…

workingclass artist on September 20, 2012 at 4:41

Many, many introductions, and a lot of people equate Drudge to Rush Limbaugh. Just “conservative noise”. I’m serious when I say there are people who still believe that it is unthinkable that newscasters would lie. It’s like they think they take an oath of office or something.

BettyRuth on September 20, 2012 at 5:10 PM

More ‘good’ news under Obama.

Bank of America Corp. is speeding up its plan to slash 30,000 jobs by 2015. It’s now expected to lay off as many as 16,000 by the end of the year, according to Thursday news reports.

Change ‘n Hope

Schadenfreude on September 20, 2012 at 5:14 PM

Speaking of Zog, haven’t seen much from him this year. Wonder why?

Del Dolemonte on September 20, 2012 at 4:58 PM

The Arab Spring melted him away.

Schadenfreude on September 20, 2012 at 5:16 PM

Bank of America Corp. is speeding up its plan to slash 30,000 jobs by 2015. It’s now expected to lay off as many as 16,000 by the end of the year, according to Thursday news reports.

Uh ATM’s fault

Conservative4ev on September 20, 2012 at 5:22 PM

An incumbent at 47% and 46% approval = loss for Obambi

Conservative4ev on September 20, 2012 at 5:24 PM

Tell her that’s what Diane and Brian begin each morning with…

workingclass artist on September 20, 2012 at 4:41

Many, many introductions, and a lot of people equate Drudge to Rush Limbaugh. Just “conservative noise”. I’m serious when I say there are people who still believe that it is unthinkable that newscasters would lie. It’s like they think they take an oath of office or something.

BettyRuth on September 20, 2012 at 5:10 PM

We wish (the oath of office thing)…

jimver on September 20, 2012 at 5:25 PM

Bank of America Corp. is speeding up its plan to slash 30,000 jobs by 2015. It’s now expected to lay off as many as 16,000 by the end of the year, according to Thursday news reports.

Uh ATM’s fault

Conservative4ev on September 20, 2012 at 5:22 PM

You wanna bet that ‘by the end of the year’ trasnlates as the interval between 7 Nov – 30 Dec ? :)…

jimver on September 20, 2012 at 5:29 PM

Del Dolemonte on September 20, 2012 at 4:51 PM

The poles that gumbypoked got poked on were not the Polish people, he only has inanimate objects to keep him company.

bayview on September 20, 2012 at 6:15 PM

Come on folks. Romney woke up a sleeping giant;the same people that one of our hot air pals says will stay away from the election in order for us to win. The ones Romney described will not give up their freebies without a fight. I know what he was saying and you know what he was saying. And I am voting for Romney because I have always liked him. But the 47% thing will linger because you and I know that even people who are republican and conservative get some freebies and they did not take this good. They are alone in the election booth and will protect their stuff. In the end greed comes in all political forms. Rasmussen is the gold standard of polls and has actually been our best friend of polls. But I expect further erosion in this poll. It does not look good. And again, where in the hell are the tv ads. Every day and night on tvland and espn and other cable channels there Obama ads and no Romney. I think the whole money thing was a lie. He never had as much or the RNC is using it for other candidates.

Robb on September 20, 2012 at 6:53 PM

with blacks casting 100% votes for Obama in the exit polls. I want to close the door on any Affirmative Action minority candidates, and I want the door nailed shut for generations.

Archivarix on September 20, 2012 at 3:27 PM

Ummm… Allen West ring a bell? A number of others? No, not Powell…

Roughly 10% of blacks are conservative and vote so. Hell, they were ALL conservative until the government started doling out freebies in the ’70s left and right. It took pretty short time to turn all that mass into rabid liberals once they got on the public dole and cushy private sector/public union jobs via Affirmative Action.

You also keep forgetting another rather large “I want” group, Latino illegals. 12 Million even by very conservative government numbers (hell, Kalifornian Khalihate has almost that number).

Nov 6th will not be a cake walk…

riddick on September 20, 2012 at 7:14 PM

Brown is getting her…

MGardner on September 20, 2012 at 7:20 PM

Damn you ALLAH you are so in the hole for OBamma!!!111!
Oh wait…

the new aesthetic on September 20, 2012 at 8:01 PM

Hot Air Friends, I recruited a die hard liberal to conservatismn. He told me tonight that Romney will win 53% of the vote. I believe him.

Winebabe on September 20, 2012 at 11:56 PM

Prediction, no trolls on election night. Cowards the lot of you apologists! Prediction, 0 will lose Ga.

Bmore on September 21, 2012 at 10:55 AM

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