Gallup: Democratic enthusiasm surges in swing states, nationally

posted at 9:21 am on September 20, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

As anyone who watched the Democratic national convention’s Abortion-Palooza could easily determine, Barack Obama and his campaign team have settled for a base-turnout election rather than appeal to the moderates.  So far, that strategy appears to have paid dividends.  Gallup’s poll today shows enthusiasm increasing in all affiliations in both the swing states and nationally, but Democrats have gotten the biggest enthusiasm surge:

Voters in the 12 states USA Today and Gallup consider the key swing states that could decide the 2012 presidential election are now significantly more enthusiastic about voting this fall than they were in June. Six in 10 (59%) are either “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic, up from 46%.

Voter enthusiasm in these states has grown among members of both political parties; however, Democrats’ level has increased more. Thus, whereas equal percentages of Democrats and Republicans were enthusiastic in June, Democrats are now significantly more enthusiastic than Republicans, 73% vs. 64%.

Independents’ enthusiasm also jumped substantially over this period — up 18 points, similar to the 20-point gain among Democrats; however, independents’ enthusiasm still lags behind that of both partisan groups.

How big was the bump? Democrats got a +20 from the swing states since the end of June, while Republicans only got a +9, with Democrats now leading 73/64 on that score.  Independents got almost the same size bump as Democrats at +18, but that only puts them at 43% being either extremely or very enthusiastic.  Nationally, Democrats got a +19 and Republicans a +10, similar to the swing-state bumps, while independents only got a +9.  This would explain the post-convention bump that lifted Barack Obama for more than a week over his rival in Gallup’s tracking poll.

A few things to note, however, about the polling methodology. This poll took place among registered voters, not likely voters, although enthusiasm is one way to determine the likely-voter model for this election (the other major factor being a history of voting).  The other point to consider is the polling dates of this particular survey, which took place between September 11 and September 17.  That’s a long period of time, with the first couple of days still within the big-bump region of Gallup’s post-convention tracking poll.  In fact, September 11 was the peak of that post-convention bounce, with Obama up seven — but yesterday only had Obama up one point, 47/46.

The big question for Team Obama is whether they can sustain their base-turnout strategy for the two-month grind ahead, as George W. Bush managed to do in 2004 over John Kerry.  The enthusiasm bump suggests that they can succeed in short spurts, but the deflation in Obama’s standing in the tracking poll suggests that Obama enthusiasm alone will be difficult to sustain in the long term.  They need to deflate Republican enthusiasm and keep independents from engaging, and this poll suggests that they didn’t have much success even in the short term with those efforts.


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gumbyandpokey on September 20, 2012 at 10:54 AM

Why do you want the country to be Downgraded?

Chip on September 20, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Can play it safe Mitt contend with this constant slobbering monster that is “medium as the message”? Can anyone/anything contend with it?

onomo on September 20, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Yep, McLuhan was right…

jimver on September 20, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Yes. For all this talk about how Romney was the Establishment choice, I don’t think that is altogether accurate. Remember when they pushed Perry into the race as an alternative? A lot of DC heavyweights were behind that.

changer1701 on September 20, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Actually, it seems like a lot of Romney’s biggest boosters during the primary season are the ones who are his most vocal critics (or muted supporters) now.

Right Mover on September 20, 2012 at 10:58 AM

If Romney can replicate Kerry-2004, and lose by 2-3% only, I will count it as a success for a loser like him.

In any case, I hope that the Super-PACs will steer their money toward the Senate and House races. The Senate seats in WI and NV are slipping away, and MT seat is also shaky. We need to hold at least the current 47 seats. The House majority also needs protection.

The only thing Romney had going for him in the primary is his pile of cash. He’d better use it to protect his @ss.

buridan on September 20, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Just get out there and vote.

Charlemagne on September 20, 2012 at 9:56 AM”

Of course we will…you wouldn’t think that a lobotomized one like gumboanddumbo would convince anyone to stay home looool :)…

jimver on September 20, 2012 at 11:00 AM

Seems like another bogus poll in two respects. First, a measure of enthusiasm should be done among likely voters, not registered voters.

And just because a registered Democrat says they are going to vote, that does not guarantee that they will vote Democrat.

Cheetah1956 on September 20, 2012 at 11:02 AM

The future of the Republic is the reason I’m against BOTH Obama and Romney.

ddrintn on September 20, 2012 at 10:34 AM

There IS NO future for the Republic if Obama gets another four years. Why is it that some people do not understand this?!

At least we can hold Romney’s feet to the fire if he goes off course. Because he will know he will be toast if he doesn’t listen.
Obama is going to do what Obama(and his socialist inclinations) is going to do, whether we, or anyone like it or not; through executive order when the proper channels don’t work for him. We have already seen that.
Btw, did you hear that the administration is ready to proceed with an executive order for increased cyber”security”? What do you think that will do for opposing viewpoints(who will be labeled “domestic terrorists” – oops, already have been by Janet Napolitano)?!

Sterling Holobyte on September 20, 2012 at 10:52 AM

+1000

Exactamundo!

Consider El Presidente Downgrade’s first years in orifice when he had to at least consider getting re-selected and he wanted to be unaccountable to the people he’s supposed to serve with his infamous quip “I won”

Does anyone think that he would more accountable in a second term?

The larger infuriating issue with folks like ddrintn is that they think that there’s some other choice, that this won’t be a tipping point election.

They are either severely delusional or they want more decline of the country.

I don’t know which is worse.

Chip on September 20, 2012 at 11:03 AM

If Romney can replicate Kerry-2004, and lose by 2-3% only, I will count it as a success for a loser like him.

In any case, I hope that the Super-PACs will steer their money toward the Senate and House races. The Senate seats in WI and NV are slipping away, and MT seat is also shaky. We need to hold at least the current 47 seats. The House majority also needs protection.

The only thing Romney had going for him in the primary is his pile of cash. He’d better use it to protect his @ss.

buridan on September 20, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Here’s a quick clip for you

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmZRDUO1wGQ

VegasRick on September 20, 2012 at 11:04 AM

I love how the liberal trolls rejoice when they hear this.

“woohooo, 8% unemployment, no opportunities, higher healthcare premiums because of Obamacare, increased taxes, more debt, a nuclear Iran, potential WWIII in the Middle East, etc.. But, this is great news.”

milcus on September 20, 2012 at 11:08 AM

“Are you insanely trying to claim that Obama = Bush?”

Nope, just the races.

gumbyandpokey on September 20, 2012 at 11:10 AM

In any case, I hope that the Super-PACs will steer their money toward the Senate and House races.
buridan

And that will accomplish what? Obama will go for broke, and likely get to pick some SC judges which will guarntee Euro-socialism is the new norm for decades to come.

Hard Right on September 20, 2012 at 11:11 AM

This is me. If Romney loses, it’s time for a third party. It’s probably time now, but we need Obama out of their and a third party will not win this election.

GadsdenRattlers on September 20, 2012 at 10:52 AM

The system in place only works as a two party system. The country is so speedily headed for self-destruction there is no time left for a third party to gain power. The 47% is headed towards 60% followed by collapse of the U.S. dollar and, thusly, the country as a whole.

The odds are that the next “3rd party” to gain control will either be one from China or one that has us turned into an Islamic caliphate. My bets are with China. They’ll be willing to turn sand into glass. Desert oil won’t be necessary; they’ll drill for ours since we left it in place for them.

Carnac on September 20, 2012 at 11:12 AM

Folks, let us get real… Look around you… Do you really think that the democrats are energized about this election?… Forget this damn poll that make non sense in the real world… I sure do see that the democrats are way less energized than they were in 2008 and I am sure that you do too… It is common among all democrat demographics but mostly among the youth…

mnjg on September 20, 2012 at 11:13 AM

And, please, for all that is Holy, don’t ever compare Bush/Dukakis to Obama/Romney.

gumbyandpokey on September 20, 2012 at 10:54 AM

No, you’re right. The Bush/Dukakis election didn’t feature one candidate who had actively been executing the willful destruction of the nation’s economy and security from inside the White House for the last four years the way Obama has.

He is nothing less than a domestic terrorist. You must be proud to be working for his reelection campaign.

Right Mover on September 20, 2012 at 11:18 AM


GOP: Reid’s Mitt-bashing broke rules

RIch in Irony, Rife with Hypocrisy!

The GOP is WALLOWING IN MITT BASHING!

Harry Reid could HARDLY GET A WORD IN EDGEWISE FOR ALL THE GOP CARPING ABOUT ROMNEY!

mountainaires on September 20, 2012 at 11:20 AM

gumbyandpokey on September 20, 2012 at 11:23 AM

Why do you want to see the country Downgraded?

Chip on September 20, 2012 at 11:25 AM

Folks, let us get real… Look around you… Do you really think that the democrats are energized about this election?… Forget this damn poll that make non sense in the real world… I sure do see that the democrats are way less energized than they were in 2008 and I am sure that you do too… It is common among all democrat demographics but mostly among the youth…

mnjg on September 20, 2012 at 11:13 AM

I already posted earlier about a CBS poll from two days ago that completely contradicts this one.

jazzmo on September 20, 2012 at 11:30 AM

Folks, let us get real… Look around you… Do you really think that the democrats are energized about this election?…

mnjg on September 20, 2012 at 11:13 AM

More people out of work. More people in poverty. More people on food stamps.

More people willing to “work for food”. More people willing to be bused from voting location to voting location for the price of breakfast, lunch, and dinner.

Which side has the experience and the infrastructure in place to facilitate those free meals?

Carnac on September 20, 2012 at 11:31 AM

Okay, quick two cents on the Rasmussen poll here.

My suspicion is that a days worth of bad polling is exaggerating a trend. The rule of thumb with tracking polls is to be wary of large overnight shifts. Yesterday, there was a one point shift after the first full day of covering the 47% remark, which suggested at most modest damage. To suddenly go down three, is too drastic when you consider that this polling would’ve been taken on a day with significantly less coverage of that comment, and given the initial subtle shift. Even when all that crap with the middle east hit, Obama only lost two points of support per day, not three.

Even if its not though, eh, look at just how quickly the polls move. Last week started with Obama up +5 in Ras, and ended with Romney up +3. This week started with Romney up +2, and now has him down +2. We’re likely to see a lot of shifts like this until the electorate settles.

Fortunately, gaffs tend to have a short shelf life of effectiveness, when they’re effective at all. You give it a week and most people tend to forget, or decide said gaff wasn’t so bad, and so on and so forth. Where-as, a bad economy, and a melt down in the middle east, are persistent problems that will be dogging Obama from now till election day.

WolvenOne on September 20, 2012 at 11:38 AM

Why do you want to see the country Downgraded?

Chip on September 20, 2012 at 11:25 AM

Clay brain doesn’t care about the country. It’s all about trying to win.

itsspideyman on September 20, 2012 at 11:39 AM

On Gallops comments on enthusiasm.

Sorry but no, yes we saw a few polls showing a surge in enthusiasm after the democratic convention, but since then numerous other polls have come how showing Republicans back in the lead in terms of enthusiasm. So Gallop is the odd man out in this polling data, and considering part of this polling data comes from when Obama was still enjoying a convention bounce that would at least partially explain it.

WolvenOne on September 20, 2012 at 11:45 AM

A little bummed by the Rasmussen polling today, but we shall see tomorrow. Im not sure why Dems would be so motivated over high unemployment, a crappy economy, crushing debt, and a weak foreign policy. Oh I remember now, its because they are frigging morons.

Jack_Burton on September 20, 2012 at 11:46 AM

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/pawlenty-quits-romney-campaign-co-chair-132022573–election.html

gumbyandpokey on September 20, 2012 at 11:23 AM

Why is that a bad thing? Pawlenty ran a horrible campaign and couldn’t even beat Bachmann in a straw poll. Keep him as far away from the Romney camp as possible.

Doughboy on September 20, 2012 at 11:49 AM

BTW, is there anything we can do about Pokey? He’s getting annoying, and complaints about him seem to be taking up more and more space in the comments.

WolvenOne on September 20, 2012 at 11:52 AM

Even with a little help from Fox, it’s impossible for Romney to counter all the left wing media propaganda machines in this country. They will just keep banging away, generating positives for Obama and negatives for Romney. Over time, the voting public will be influenced by their efforts and this could turn the election. If you repeat something long enough it will soon become a truism. The hill might simply be too steep for Romney to climb . . . at any rate, he’ll need a lot of help.

rplat on September 20, 2012 at 11:53 AM

When the reading goes from 1 to 2, it is a 100% increase, right? If the Dems started low (not so enthusiastic, eh?) then the increase/bump from the convention would show up as a large increase.
It doesn’t help much to know that pollsters are starting to include answering machines as ‘yes’ votes…the published polls this year are truly pathetic. Meanwhile, Obama’s team has spent tens of millions of polling for internal use, WAY more than any other campaign, and sure aren’t acting confident, are they?

DublOh7 on September 20, 2012 at 11:53 AM

You guys & gals bashing Romney.
Its a clear choice.
A liberal republican vs a marxist.
A “proud to be an American” vs trampling the Constitution.
A supporter of Israel vs a supporter of islamic nations.
“free” contraceptives vs pay for you own.
Pro business environment vs redistribution.

Belle on September 20, 2012 at 11:53 AM

I have seen numbers on the order of 90% that refuse to participate and/or hang up on pollsters.

Are we to believe that the D/R/I breakdown of those with the personality trait willing to be polled is equivalent to the D/R/I of those that refuse to participate?

I, for one, have a self-esteem high enough that I don’t need to feel more important by participating in a do-nothing poll, thus I always refuse politely and then hang-up immediately.

Carnac on September 20, 2012 at 11:54 AM

The only reason I care about any polls, is to read y’all’s comments …. LOL.

Only Nov 6 counts.

Everything else is just something to occupy the pundits, as they attempt to manipulate the election turnout and results.

Ain’t buying, or even interested in, poll numbers … why bother ??
IMHO.

This is it, exactly.

PatriotGal2257 on September 20, 2012 at 11:59 AM

Even with a little help from Fox, it’s impossible for Romney to counter all the left wing media propaganda machines in this country.

rplat on September 20, 2012 at 11:53 AM

As an example, my mother is elderly and on SSI. She can’t afford cable TV and only gets MSM news. Believe it or not there are millions like her.

That is who the MSM knows they can “get” over to their side. Heck, her generation doesn’t even know that the MSM is biased. In their day they trusted the news so they still do.

Carnac on September 20, 2012 at 12:00 PM

Don’t believe it for a second.

rollthedice on September 20, 2012 at 12:03 PM

Seems like another bogus poll in two respects. First, a measure of enthusiasm should be done among likely voters, not registered voters.

Cheetah1956 on September 20, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Unfortunately, the poll isn’t bogus.

I’m sitting here in Ohio wondering why Mitt has gone AWOL. Oh, I know he’s stopped here, but so has Obama. And in the last two weeks, I’ve seen DOZENS and DOZENS of Obama commercials across several different channels… AND NOT A SINGLE MITT COMMERCIAL.

I saw a handful of Mitt commercials a few weeks ago but none recently. I’m seriously starting to think that Mitt is trying to throw the election on purpose.

If Mitt loses, conservatives need to seriously look at starting a third party to challenge the GOP.

dominigan on September 20, 2012 at 12:06 PM

The best thing to do with gumbey and pokey is ignore him. I have tried, but unfortunately failed today to do that.

earlgrey133 on September 20, 2012 at 12:07 PM

Rass has the President up 2 today.

It’s over, till the debates…then it will really, really over.

newtopia on September 20, 2012 at 12:08 PM

Say it with me:

Electoral landslide and “four more years.”

Let the healing begin now…I see the denial stage is alreay kicked in hard around here.

The silver lining is that this campaign may give Ryan a leg up for 2016.

newtopia on September 20, 2012 at 12:10 PM

Don’t believe it for a second.

rollthedice on September 20, 2012 at 12:03 PM

Denial.

Believe it…as this is what you reap when Establishment types convince you that a guy who looks like Reagan and has a bunch of money is therefore the second coming of Reagan, even though he waffles more than an IHOP.

newtopia on September 20, 2012 at 12:15 PM

Why do you want to see the country Downgraded?

Chip on September 20, 2012 at 11:25 AM

Clay brain doesn’t care about the country. It’s all about trying to win.

itsspideyman on September 20, 2012 at 11:39 AM

When El Presidente Downgrade finishes ‘fundamentally transforming the country’ there won’t be much to win.

Chip on September 20, 2012 at 12:18 PM

Seriously, Ed. Can anyone trust Gallup now that we know the DOJ is looking at them for producing numbers unfavorable to Obama? It’s time for Gallup to close its doors.

UnrepentantCurmudgeon on September 20, 2012 at 12:19 PM

a guy who looks like Reagan and has a bunch of money is therefore the second coming of Reagan,

newtopia on September 20, 2012 at 12:15 PM

Who’s been saying that?

Are you one of those looking Forward to the decline of the nation?

Chip on September 20, 2012 at 12:21 PM

In any case, I hope that the Super-PACs will steer their money toward the Senate and House races. The Senate seats in WI and NV are slipping away, and MT seat is also shaky. We need to hold at least the current 47 seats. The House majority also needs protection.

The only thing Romney had going for him in the primary is his pile of cash. He’d better use it to protect his @ss.

buridan on September 20, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Unfortunately, Romney has an effect on the downticket races.

If it is perceived that Romney is a lost cause, GOP turnout inevitably will be depressed. And that will cost us races.

No, by all means let’s do what we can for senate and house races. But we need Romney to do as well as possible. At the least, we need to go int Election Day “too close to call” (even if it turns out Mitt falls shot), because that will keep GOP turnout high.

The_Jacobite on September 20, 2012 at 12:27 PM

Denial.

Believe it…as this is what you reap when Establishment types convince you that a guy who looks like Reagan and has a bunch of money is therefore the second coming of Reagan, even though he waffles more than an IHOP.

newtopia on September 20, 2012 at 12:15 PM

when it sounds too good to be true, it usually is.

rollthedice on September 20, 2012 at 12:36 PM

First of all, I don’t trust Gallup. B) Obama’s base has already shrunk since 2008. 3, er…I don’t have a three.

Othniel on September 20, 2012 at 12:37 PM

The bigger story here is how half the nation can be fooled/tricked/brainwashed into re-electing a demagogue and thus voting away their liberties. Somewhere in Hell, Lenin, Marx and Engels are perhaps smiling.

long_cat on September 20, 2012 at 12:49 PM

Unfortunately, Romney has an effect on the downticket races.

If it is perceived that Romney is a lost cause, GOP turnout inevitably will be depressed. And that will cost us races.

The_Jacobite on September 20, 2012 at 12:27 PM

Romney will have to fend for himself, after all him being able to raise money was the only rationale for his candidacy.

Btw, the Intrade odds for the GOP retaining the House went from 90% a week ago to 70% today. I actually think it is closer to 50-50 now.

Of course, even that is better than 2008 (the GOP will have a blocking minority in the Senate for sure), but not by much.

Well, in 2004 Kerry came back in October, and lost narrowly. Can Romney match it?

buridan on September 20, 2012 at 12:52 PM

The CBS/NYT enthusiasm numbers and the Gallup ones were taken over the same period 9/11-9/17 and have completely different findings!

I think Kevin at hillbuzz has nailed the real purpose of this site!

Mr. Mike on September 20, 2012 at 12:55 PM

I don’t buy into this surge of Democratic enthusiasm.

I live in a town and an area that votes Republican, and has for a long time. In recent years, we’ve seen an uptick in Democratic activity, mainly due to people that have moved out of Cook County (Chicago) and further out into the ‘burbs. Our state rep. was a Republican for a long time and got caught up in the 2008 Democratic wave. She was able to retain the seat in the 2010 midterms, mainly by taking a fiscal conservative approach on the issues.

In 2008, by this point in the election, I was seeing Obama bumper stickers and yard signs everywhere. Now, I’ve yet to see an Obama 2012 bumper sticker or yard sign, even in the more Democratic areas of my town. And as I drive around this area, and into the closer in Chicago ‘burbs, I’m just not seeing the Obama love this time out.

italianguy626 on September 20, 2012 at 1:02 PM

As anyone who watched the Democratic national convention’s Abortion-Palooza could easily determine, Barack Obama and his campaign team have settled for a base-turnout election rather than appeal to the moderates.

Wait Ed, It took you until the dem convention to figure this out? Meanwhile Mitt is doing everything he can to depress the conservative base. there ar eno moderates. there are people who go with the flow. If Obama appears to be winning going into the home strecth and his base will make it look so then the “moderates” will break for him. that is why you must always secure and excite your base first and why campaigns that go for the “moderates” almost always lose.

I don’t know if Obama is bad enough in the minds of the moderates for them to break from going with the flow. After all it doesn’t matter abouot policies to them. they vote on other issues like if its “cool” to vote for the guy. Moderates are the worse people to “try” to win. They are flipflopping votes goign from one fad to another.

unseen on September 20, 2012 at 1:06 PM

New Gallup poll shows Obama/Romney tied at 47% a piece – Registered Voters

Obama now has upside down approval ratings: 46/48

http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

sentinelrules on September 20, 2012 at 1:07 PM

May I yell something too?

We’re preaching to the choir here. Get out there and comment wherever you can. Twitter the twits in the media. Mock their hysteria because they know Obama is going down.

SEND OBAMA TO HAWAIIAN PARADISE.

MaggiePoo on September 20, 2012 at 1:09 PM

I don’t buy into this surge of Democratic enthusiasm.

italianguy626 on September 20, 2012 at 1:02 PM

an excited base makes it appear to be an uptick in enthusiasm. And cause equals effect. the more Obama’s base is out and about the more likely the moderates will go with them then the fellow who’s base is sitting home and just coming out to vote. Mitt’s entire campaign team should resign in disgrace at this point. To think only a month and half away from the election and Mitt can’t break 50% when the economy sucks, inflation is out of control, the fed ‘s monetary police is rewarding the well off at the expense of the poor, the government is becoming everyone’s sugar daddy and the world is exploding due to failed Obama policies, our freedoms like freedom of speech are under attack. And Mitt can’t make a case on why we should vote for him because his team is afraid to offend the “moderates” It a disgrace.

unseen on September 20, 2012 at 1:12 PM

And of course here’s dumboandpokeme to theorize how a one point difference in polling day to day is a sign of doom for Mitt but no big deal for Dog Boy.

Bishop on September 20, 2012 at 9:27 AM

And with no internals and no link. Meaningless.

kim roy on September 20, 2012 at 1:14 PM

Oh, come on. After thre tragedy in the Middle East and the predictable Obama bungling and smoking guns galore, you ‘bots were predicting a Romney breakout. It’s never happened. It never will happen. Romney’s a bad candidate. Own it.

ddrintn on September 20, 2012 at 10:04 AM

Man are you ever tiresome. We know this. Where have you been for the multitudes of posts of people stating exactly that and still know it’s a better deal than another four years of Obama.

Are you brain dead? Functionally impaired? No really. I want to understand why you come here with your abused chicken to tell us things we already know.

If it’s because you have absolutely nothing else in your life except to come and be Captain Obvious then please say so and maybe we can be a little more entertaining for you.

kim roy on September 20, 2012 at 1:24 PM

The big question for Team Obama is whether they can sustain their base-turnout strategy for the two-month grind ahead, as George W. Bush managed to do in 2004 over John Kerry.

That’s presumably why Team Obama has spent record amounts of money on assembling a get-out-the-vote operation much like Bush did in ’04.

The enthusiasm bump suggests that they can succeed in short spurts, but the deflation in Obama’s standing in the tracking poll suggests that Obama enthusiasm alone will be difficult to sustain in the long term.

Probably wishful thinking … Clinton is on the campaign trail. And “the deflation in Obama’s standing in the tracking poll” is almost entirely attributable to Rasmussen and Gallup only. The other pollsters have not detected it. As John Podhoretz just pointed out, it would be stupid to automatically dismiss those polls which claim Obama is in the lead.

They need to deflate Republican enthusiasm

That’s Mitt Romney’s task, really:-)

mlindroo on September 20, 2012 at 1:24 PM

Ha, drudge just posted the latestt gallup : O 47% R 47%…heh , R is stil very much in da game and he will win….to paraphrase gumbo and dumbo, game over for O .)..

jimver on September 20, 2012 at 1:28 PM

an excited base makes it appear to be an uptick in enthusiasm. And cause equals effect. the more Obama’s base is out and about the more likely the moderates will go with them then the fellow who’s base is sitting home and just coming out to vote. Mitt’s entire campaign team should resign in disgrace at this point. To think only a month and half away from the election and Mitt can’t break 50% when the economy sucks, inflation is out of control, the fed ‘s monetary police is rewarding the well off at the expense of the poor, the government is becoming everyone’s sugar daddy and the world is exploding due to failed Obama policies, our freedoms like freedom of speech are under attack. And Mitt can’t make a case on why we should vote for him because his team is afraid to offend the “moderates” It a disgrace.

unseen on September 20, 2012 at 1:12 PM

It’s a darn good question. With all that and still can’t break 50? A couple of things:

- the teat suckers have taken over or are pretty close to it.

- people just don’t want to have the race card chucked at them anymore and will say anything just to get away from a pollster or anyone who asks. Part of me wants to believe that when people are alone with their thoughts and can finally be anonymous and say “you suck” to Obama they will. While some of us have been called a racist on and off for five years (when he started campaigning) and don’t care, don’t forget there are a lot of people who are afraid.

We can only do what we can do with what we have.

kim roy on September 20, 2012 at 1:28 PM

The swing state polls in FL, OH and VA this week suggests they have succeeded where it counts. Romney can have NH and even Colorado if Obama wins those three.

libfreeordie on September 20, 2012 at 9:25 AM

Looool :) Obama won’t win Fl, no way in heck he wins Florida….

jimver on September 20, 2012 at 1:30 PM

The only thing Romney had going for him in the primary is his pile of cash. He’d better use it to protect his @ss.

buridan on September 20, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Unfortunately, Romney has an effect on the downticket races.

If it is perceived that Romney is a lost cause, GOP turnout inevitably will be depressed. And that will cost us races.

No, by all means let’s do what we can for senate and house races. But we need Romney to do as well as possible. At the least, we need to go int Election Day “too close to call” (even if it turns out Mitt falls shot), because that will keep GOP turnout high.

The_Jacobite on September 20, 2012 at 12:27 PM

This kind of attitude (that you responded to in your post) is a loser attitude and this alone will cause Romney to lose, if people on our side get so easily depressed and intimidated by the media and project such negative attitude they will make it happen…for chrissake, take a look at the Gallup poll, they are tied at 47%….what the heck is wrong with our side,, do you see the Dems abandoning Obama just because he’s tied with R? Say what you want abojt he Dems, but at least they are committed to drag their candidate over the finish line and they started with a big deficit in the enthusiasm department…And they defend him no matter his ineptness and failed policies, and what do we do, we excoriate our own candidate before we even gave him a chance to compete, it’s an exercise in masochism that boggles the mind…

jimver on September 20, 2012 at 1:59 PM

Rush predicted this would happen, and it is arriving right on schedule: Obama approval numbers will go up, the msm pundits declare the economy is recovering because the unemployment numbers ‘seem’ to go down. The spin and data manipulation is only going to get more frantic the closer we get to the election.

Don’t believe the spin. As others have said, actual Dem enthusiasm is way down. Trolling is up, however, which is as good an indication of Dem desperation as any.

Mitsouko on September 20, 2012 at 2:01 PM

This type of polling is very soft. No one should put any stock in it. It is designed to encourage Democrats and nothing else. Bought and paid for. Gallup trying to get Holder off its back.

pat on September 20, 2012 at 2:03 PM

Do you suppose we could do our own ‘Troll Poll’ – the higher the activity/comments, the better our side is doing?

Mitsouko on September 20, 2012 at 2:03 PM

Do you suppose we could do our own ‘Troll Poll’ – the higher the activity/comments, the better our side is doing?

Mitsouko on September 20, 2012 at 2:03 PM

Exactly Mitsouko.

This is the Lord Haw Haw of our era.

itsspideyman on September 20, 2012 at 2:08 PM

New tracking poll:

Gallup: Romney Pulls Even with Obama:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx

itsspideyman on September 20, 2012 at 2:16 PM

Gallup has them tied today. So, chill out people. Polls will vary by the day and people are putting a bit much stock in them. The biggest number to look at is the Indies. Which O has lost. That’s who decides the election anyways. And his numbers thre are not good. Romney was never my first choice to run against Zero. But I have grown to like him actually. The Ryan pick only helped. The stakes are too high. Owebama even said to the Russians that he’d have more “flexibility” after the election. We all know what that means and it’s not good for the country.

Minnfidel on September 20, 2012 at 2:17 PM

Don’t believe the spin. As others have said, actual Dem enthusiasm is way down. Trolling is up, however, which is as good an indication of Dem desperation as any.

Mitsouko on September 20, 2012 at 2:01 PM

This!

In a purely unscientific measure of that, I have hardly seen any Obama bumper stickers or yard signs where I live in the Peoples Republic of MN. Last time around in 2008 you could hardly go anywhere without seeing them. Yes I know it’s completely unscientific but it’s just an obervation.

Minnfidel on September 20, 2012 at 2:21 PM

We can only do what we can do with what we have.

kim roy on September 20, 2012 at 1:28 PM

If a liberal republican like Mitt can’t win in NOv they will never be able to win.

unseen on September 20, 2012 at 2:29 PM

Gallup has them tied today. Calm down. Rass normally has Oblowme leading at least one day in the week. Then it goes back to Romney. Calm down people!

anchorman on September 20, 2012 at 2:32 PM

New tracking poll:

Obama is underwater in approval rating:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx

Prepared to swing Clay brains?

itsspideyman on September 20, 2012 at 2:32 PM

Do you suppose we could do our own ‘Troll Poll’ – the higher the activity/comments, the better our side is doing?

Mitsouko on September 20, 2012 at 2:03 PM

You know it’s true..

jimver on September 20, 2012 at 2:34 PM

It seems that there are dueling polls on this subject.

In all three states, a majority of Republicans say they are more enthusiastic about voting this year, compared to about a third of Democrats who are. In Colorado and Virginia, GOP voters are more enthusiastic than Democrats by a 15 point margin. In Wisconsin, GOP enthusiasm outpaces Democrats by 16 points.

Particularly interesting is that GOP voters have become more enthusiastic about voting in the past month. GOP enthusiasm has increased 9 points in CO, 10 points in WI and 12 points in VA. Democrat enthusiasm, meanwhile has increased only modestly; 5 points in VA, 4 in WI and 10 in CO (from a very low 28% of Democrats who were more enthusiastic about voting).

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/09/19/cbs-poll-gop-voters-getting-more-enthusiastic-about-election-huge-edge-over-democrats

So… I don’t know what to believe. Well I am pretty sure who to believe.

petunia on September 20, 2012 at 2:36 PM

Don’t believe the spin. As others have said, actual Dem enthusiasm is way down. Trolling is up, however, which is

as good an indication of Dem desperation as any.

Mitsouko on September 20, 2012 at 2:01 PM

This!

In a purely unscientific measure of that, I have hardly seen any Obama bumper stickers or yard signs where I live in the Peoples Republic of MN. Last time around in 2008 you could hardly go anywhere without seeing them. Yes I know it’s completely unscientific but it’s just an obervation.

Minnfidel on September 20, 2012 at 2:21 PM

Of course, if they actually had any clue how to measure voter enthusiasm, then they would know how to factor in the likely voting in their polls way before the elections….but they can’t, credibly, they can do this onlly in the exit polls accurately…

jimver on September 20, 2012 at 2:40 PM

This just fails to pass the smell test. I’m sorry, I guess we will see in November, because obviously then we will KNOW which way we are moving. I’m in a swing state and I don’t see it and the internal GOP people I speak to who have access to the internal polls say it isn’t there. Now maybe my state just isn’t moving and others are – but the polling doesn’t correlate with this enthusiasm poll. They are getting more favorable to Romney – and then this?

Is this just psych ops because we have figured all the rest of it out?

Zomcon JEM on September 20, 2012 at 2:44 PM

We can only do what we can do with what we have.

kim roy on September 20, 2012 at 1:28 PM

If a liberal republican like Mitt can’t win in NOv they will never be able to win.

unseen on September 20, 2012 at 2:29 PM

Sure. And that’s when we either get a viable third party going or do some serious housecleaning of the GOP. Until then, this is where we are.

Even if Romney does win, though, this still needs to be done. It would be nice to do it without having the chaos Obama will bring.

kim roy on September 20, 2012 at 2:51 PM

And with no internals and no link. Meaningless.

kim roy on September 20, 2012 at 1:14 PM

Even if any liberal sponsored poll (even ones from WSJ these days are more than biased IMO, WSJ aligning with NBC of all places to produce polls?) come out with the SUPPOSED balanced political affiliation numbers, after all that we have seen in recent years and months can anyone with even half a brain believe the numbers they provide are actual and true?

I really don’t care what polls says these days, Rassmussen is the only I can trust based on his prior record. Any other poll is more than bogus, again, when based on prior record.

riddick on September 20, 2012 at 3:03 PM

Man are you ever tiresome. We know this. Where have you been for the multitudes of posts of people stating exactly that and still know it’s a better deal than another four years of Obama.

kim roy

You have to cut ddrintn some slack. His frequent rub out sessions to his favorite Palin poster causes him to miss a lot of posts.

xblade on September 20, 2012 at 4:36 PM

Here’s something to help the Democrat enthusiasm:

Obama says you can’t change washington from the inside:

http://freebeacon.com/obama-you-cant-change-washington-from-the-inside/

Let’s see what this does to the ole’ enthusiasm meter.

itsspideyman on September 20, 2012 at 5:35 PM

My 2 cents for whatever they’re worth:

I live in a VERY LIBERAL area just outside Philadelphia. 4 years ago around this time you could count the number of cars that DIDN’T have Obama bumper stickers. Obama yard signs were everywhere. Now I see an occasional O bumper sticker here and there. Yard signs are virtually non- existant. Granted, most of the people around here are still going to vote for Obama, but the enthusiasm is clearly down among Democrats.

mexdem on September 20, 2012 at 9:40 PM

Romeny needs to go to Florida, then Virgina, then Ohio, then back to Florida again. Florida is a must win state for Romney, chances of him winning without Florida are slim to none.

Dollayo on September 22, 2012 at 7:36 AM

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