Gallup: Democratic enthusiasm surges in swing states, nationally

posted at 9:21 am on September 20, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

As anyone who watched the Democratic national convention’s Abortion-Palooza could easily determine, Barack Obama and his campaign team have settled for a base-turnout election rather than appeal to the moderates.  So far, that strategy appears to have paid dividends.  Gallup’s poll today shows enthusiasm increasing in all affiliations in both the swing states and nationally, but Democrats have gotten the biggest enthusiasm surge:

Voters in the 12 states USA Today and Gallup consider the key swing states that could decide the 2012 presidential election are now significantly more enthusiastic about voting this fall than they were in June. Six in 10 (59%) are either “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic, up from 46%.

Voter enthusiasm in these states has grown among members of both political parties; however, Democrats’ level has increased more. Thus, whereas equal percentages of Democrats and Republicans were enthusiastic in June, Democrats are now significantly more enthusiastic than Republicans, 73% vs. 64%.

Independents’ enthusiasm also jumped substantially over this period — up 18 points, similar to the 20-point gain among Democrats; however, independents’ enthusiasm still lags behind that of both partisan groups.

How big was the bump? Democrats got a +20 from the swing states since the end of June, while Republicans only got a +9, with Democrats now leading 73/64 on that score.  Independents got almost the same size bump as Democrats at +18, but that only puts them at 43% being either extremely or very enthusiastic.  Nationally, Democrats got a +19 and Republicans a +10, similar to the swing-state bumps, while independents only got a +9.  This would explain the post-convention bump that lifted Barack Obama for more than a week over his rival in Gallup’s tracking poll.

A few things to note, however, about the polling methodology. This poll took place among registered voters, not likely voters, although enthusiasm is one way to determine the likely-voter model for this election (the other major factor being a history of voting).  The other point to consider is the polling dates of this particular survey, which took place between September 11 and September 17.  That’s a long period of time, with the first couple of days still within the big-bump region of Gallup’s post-convention tracking poll.  In fact, September 11 was the peak of that post-convention bounce, with Obama up seven — but yesterday only had Obama up one point, 47/46.

The big question for Team Obama is whether they can sustain their base-turnout strategy for the two-month grind ahead, as George W. Bush managed to do in 2004 over John Kerry.  The enthusiasm bump suggests that they can succeed in short spurts, but the deflation in Obama’s standing in the tracking poll suggests that Obama enthusiasm alone will be difficult to sustain in the long term.  They need to deflate Republican enthusiasm and keep independents from engaging, and this poll suggests that they didn’t have much success even in the short term with those efforts.


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All the “experts” said Romney was the only one that could beat Obama.

We all witnessed Romney in 2008 and 2012 fight, berate, and stretch the truth amongst his own party in the primaries. Where is this Mitt now? There is a myriad of information the man could be using. He has the capability to be on TV all day, everyday getting out the message. He has the capability to explain to the sleepers that the GM/Chrysler saving was indeed a bankruptcy, just not a bankruptcy that followed the rules. The government made their own rules and called it a “save”. He is missing key opportunities. The MSM is irrelevant. Their filter should not matter.

Who is this guy? He is not nearly as bad as Bob Dole, but he is beginning to look UN-electable. He had better change course immediately. I live in Michigan, there are Obama signs everywhere. If he cannot win MA and MI, what really is the point? If he worked well with democrats, he should have MA locked up. The unions in MI hate him because he recommended bankruptcy, a legal one. They got a government run bankruptcy, so why can he not explain that? It truly boggles the mind.

shar61 on September 20, 2012 at 10:12 AM

Every week on one day we have a -THE SKY IS FALLING- day then the polls tighten again and we wait until the next-THE SKY IS FALLING DAY.

In general all the polls have this as a tight race with Obama usually in the 48-49 range.

late deciders usually go for the challenger.

lets face it.For whatever reason the dead economy is not dooming OBAMA.

this is going to be like 2004. very tight. get out your antacid pills.

gerry-mittbot

gerrym51 on September 20, 2012 at 10:12 AM

Why is Rasmussen suspect? In a recent poll he stated that Romney lead Independents by 10 yet only lead overall by 1. Only way you get there is with Dem 2008 sample.

mitchellvii on September 20, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Well, let’s be honest…if these enthusiasm numbers are accurate (a big if, certainly), Dem turnout might indeed approach ’08 levels.

changer1701 on September 20, 2012 at 9:36 AM

A big if? That if is about as big as the Pentagon (I don’t know I was trying to come up with something big). There is no possible way turnout will be the same as 2008. This isn’t a “historic” election for the people who want to have a historic first. 2008 was an absolute anamoly and that anamoly has turned into a tragedy, even for those wanting to be “historic”.

MobileVideoEngineer on September 20, 2012 at 10:13 AM

nagee76 on September 20, 2012 at 10:04 AM

See Above. I rest my case.

REPUBLICANS DESERVE TO LOSE THIS ELECTION IN A LANDSLIDE.

Unfortunately, you’re taking the rest of the country DOWN WITH YOU.

And, for THAT, I will never forgive you.

STAND UP FOR YOUR CANDIDATE OR LOSE THIS ELECTION!!!!

mountainaires on September 20, 2012 at 10:14 AM

All the “experts” said Romney was the only one that could beat Obama.

compared to the other candidates that were in the race correct.

i can’t help it if the best ones did not run.

Mitts’ our candidate and you have 2 choices-make that 3.

vote Mitt
vote Obama
don’t vote

gerrym51 on September 20, 2012 at 10:14 AM

gumbyandpokey on September 20, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Why do you want the country to be Downgraded?

Chip on September 20, 2012 at 10:15 AM

I feel like the Romney campaign is mirroring the primary campaign for Perry. Both started really well (i count that as the Ryan pick) and then puttered into nothing.

Sometimes it is hard to tell that he is campaigning at all. I don’t watch much TV and I don’t live in a swing state, but Obama is the only one catching attention and with positives associated with him.

earlgrey133 on September 20, 2012 at 10:15 AM

mountainaires on September 20, 2012 at 10:11 AM

I think Bill Kristol actually wants Romney to lose.

earlgrey133 on September 20, 2012 at 10:16 AM

So you’re admitting that many working class whites who, based on your candidate, “will never take responsibility for themselves” are not only woefully irresponsible, “entitled” and dependent on government, but that they are so ignorant they don’t even KNOW that fact? And you also are suggesting that their ignorance of that fact is why they vote for the GOP? OK then. Way to make a strong case for your party and conservatism.

libfreeordie on September 20, 2012 at 10:06 AM

People will be unable to take responsibility for themselves as long as liberal policies keep driving the cost of living up.

Liberal policies especially hurt low income and middle class folks … turning what used to be a decent living into a daily fight for survival. Every tax, every regulation, every mandate, every “green energy” idea drives the cost of sustaining a family higher and higher until people do exactly what Obama wants them to do … become dependent on democrats for their survival.

darwin on September 20, 2012 at 10:17 AM

gumbyandpokey on September 20, 2012 at 10:05 AM
Again, are you a Romney supporter or not?

changer1701 on September 20, 2012 at 10:09 AM

I think that this “gumbyandpokey” fool shall be banned. How can we push for his banning? He brings nothing here but childish and stupid comments… His goal is to try to demoralize us but of course the fool does not recognize that we are going to crawl on broking glass to vote… Never the less he is an extremely annoying person and for this alone he/she shall be banned.

mnjg on September 20, 2012 at 10:17 AM

Yes, GAME OVER in September. Keep telling yourself this as Obama loses in a landslide in November.

Obama = Carter

blink on September 20, 2012 at 10:13 AM

So where’s Reagan?

ddrintn on September 20, 2012 at 10:19 AM

Beck just played the part of the Romney 47% tape this morning where Mitt said that we are no longer getting loans from China or Russia, but instead the FED is just printing money out of thin air.

This is the same Romney who called Bernanke and begged him not to do QE3.

Paul supporters and all naysayers: you want Romney to get serious about the FED, here it is!!

Why is NO ONE talking about this? I think when politicians speak off the cuff like Romney did on that tape it reveals their true intentions which is good news showing that Romney may gets it!

LevinFan on September 20, 2012 at 10:03 AM

China doesn’t have it…Remember Ghost Cities?

“If the above makes readers queasy, it should: after all rehypothecation of questionable assets is precisely what serves as the backbone of that critical component of the shadow banking system: the repo market, where anything goes, and where those who want, can create money virtually out of thin air with impunity as long as nobody checks if the assets used for liability creation are actually in the system (and with JPM as the core private sector tri-party repo entity, secondary only to the Fed, one can see why this question has never actually arisen).

In the meantime, the entire Chinese economy is unraveling…

We now know that this has been happening in China with the most critical component of its economic growth miracle: steel. We will soon discover that all other assets: stocks, bonds, commodities (including gold and silver) and finally cash (think deposits) have been comparably rehypothecated and criminally commingled.

The end result will be the most epic bank run in world history, which incidentally is precisely what the central banks are attempting desperately to delay as much as possible by generating excess inflation to “inflate” away the debt, leading to rematching of finite assets and virtually infinite liabilities. Alas, in a world in which credit-money liabilities are in the quadrillions, and in which the real assets are in the tens of trillions, only hyperinflation can seal the deal.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/how-chinas-rehypothecated-ghost-steel-just-vaporized-and-what-means-world-econ

workingclass artist on September 20, 2012 at 10:19 AM

GAME OVER.

gumbyandpokey on September 20, 2012 at 9:24 AM

If this means you get the heck out of here, and spare us the effort of putting up with your epic stupidity for a while, then fine, game over…for you…you can go now and rest, or go volunteer, help with the GVOT effort for your boy…

jimver on September 20, 2012 at 10:20 AM

I think that this “gumbyandpokey” fool shall be banned. How can we push for his banning? He brings nothing here but childish and stupid comments… His goal is to try to demoralize us but of course the fool does not recognize that we are going to crawl on broking glass to vote… Never the less he is an extremely annoying person and for this alone he/she shall be banned.

mnjg on September 20, 2012 at 10:17 AM

This impulse to shut people up you don’t agree with is a lefty trait.

ddrintn on September 20, 2012 at 10:20 AM

But remember, they’re still way behind 2008.

Remember these three things: Gallup has recorded a 38-point swing in enthusiasm (from D+26 to R+12) to the GOP since 2008, in swing states the Democrats have lost 800K registered partisans to 80K for the GOP, and the net favorable/unfavorable view of the parties has reached an all-time high of R+3 (down from D+25 in 2008).

http://www.gallup.com/poll/156194/Democratic-Voting-Enthusiasm-Down-Sharply-2004-2008.aspx

http://mobile.nationaljournal.com/2012-presidential-campaign/report-obama-registration-efforts-flagging-20120816?mrefid=election2012

http://www.gallup.com/poll/156959/gop-favorability-matches-2008-pre-convention-level.aspx

Simple rule: any poll in which Romney wins independents says he is winning the election.

TallDave on September 20, 2012 at 10:21 AM

Guess what kids? Today’s Rasmussen numbers show what to me looks like a significant shift — from Romney up 1 to Obama up 2. Sadly, the hyping of the “47 percent” nonsense seems to have been effective.

As Don Henley wrote (paraphrasing many others), “We get the government we deserve.” Sadly, it appears that many respondents to the polls are susceptible to the “Squirrel” approach.

FiveG on September 20, 2012 at 10:21 AM

I think Bill Kristol actually wants Romney to lose.

earlgrey133 on September 20, 2012 at 10:16 AM

I think there are a lot of “JEB” and “CHRISTY” supporters who would rather see our beloved country go to HEELL so their precious candidate can run in 2016. Kristol is a huge Christy fan.

Of course, there will be no country left if the socialist is reelected.

stenwin77 on September 20, 2012 at 10:22 AM

Mitts’ our candidate and you have 2 choices-make that 3.

vote Mitt
vote Obama
don’t vote

gerrym51 on September 20, 2012 at 10:14 AM

I would keep that at 2 – the third one is effectively voting for Downgrade.

Did anyone really expect this to be a cakewalk?

We’ve got most of the National Socialist Media arrayed against us on top of the Democrats – and it’s getting pretty damn hard to see any daylight between the two.

Make that impossible.

Chip on September 20, 2012 at 10:22 AM

If O wins, Congress will be irrelevant.
Executive orders will reign.
EPA, TSA, DOJ, IRS will have unlimited powers.
The Supremes are already in his pocket, thanks to turncoat Roberts.
Queen Pelosi will write legislation for O’s signature.
& O? He’ll be playing alot of golf.
& Mrs. O? She’ll be enjoying alot of vacations.
& Bernanke the incompetent? Just maybe he’ll ease down on the printing presses; of course there will be more stimulus for O’s cronies.
Think about it. O now controls GM, the insurance industry (Obamacare), energy production, taxpayer unions….
Who said this famous quote? “I want to do to every industry what I did to the auto industry”.

Belle on September 20, 2012 at 10:22 AM

I keep reading that this is a conservative country, that there are more conservatives than liberals. Why then is Obama still leading in swing states? My god. What does it take for these people to see what is going on???

The national polls are meaningless. The only ones that matter are in the toss up states: Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Colorado, Michigan, and Iowa.

In all of those states, Obama is leading by the averages of polls. With enthusiasm up with Dems.

I’m making phone calls this weekend for Romney in Michigan. What are you doing?

GadsdenRattlers on September 20, 2012 at 10:22 AM

Yes, GAME OVER in September. Keep telling yourself this as Obama loses in a landslide in November.

Obama = Carter

blink on September 20, 2012 at 10:13 AM

So where’s Reagan?

ddrintn on September 20, 2012 at 10:19 AM

Dead, since 2004…. Now, go…

jimver on September 20, 2012 at 10:22 AM

Obama won with 53% of the vote in 2008 …

1. with a huge base turnout
2. by carrying independents by a large margin
3. by convincing some Republicans to vote for him
4. with a depressed GOP base turnout

This time around 2, 3, and 4 will likely not be true.

Further, in 2008 he also had the following going for him…

A. Bush fatigue
B. a bad GOP candidate who ran poor campaign
C. a huge financial crisis right before the election
D. the let’s elect the “First Black President” fever
E. an electorate that gave the Dems control of Congress in 2006

He has none of that going for him this time, except maybe B. However, with all his faults Romney is a better candidate than McCain.

And I have not listed all of the negatives Obama has this time he did not before, or the trend in elections since the fall of 2009. He was an unknown with no track record before.

While I hesitate to underestimate the stupidity or the socialist sympathies of the electorate, it’s hard for me to see Obama getting over 50% of the vote this time around even with a base turnout as large in 2008, or even marginally larger.

farsighted on September 20, 2012 at 10:22 AM

Meanwhile Our embassy in Paahkistan is under attack…

The BBC’s Aleem Maqbool in Islamabad says some protesters have said they will not leave the diplomatic enclave until the US embassy is on fire.

However, he has not yet seen any evidence of the army’s arrival…”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-19660294

I wonder if Brits/BlueMoutain (as in Benghazi) are in charge of security there too?

workingclass artist on September 20, 2012 at 10:22 AM

So you’re admitting that many working class whites
libfreeordie on September 20, 2012 at 10:06 AM

So you’re saying there are no “working class” Blacks? Or are you just being a racist again? See how that works? You really are becoming tedious and predictable.

Deanna on September 20, 2012 at 10:23 AM

Everyday you hear Romney at a fund raiser here and a fund raiser there.He needs to be out in the swing states campaigning every day.Today he is down by 2 in Rasmussen and when you consider leaners its Obama 50% Romney 47% also up by 1 in the swings states.

logman1 on September 20, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Just relax… The same thing happened two weeks ago in Rasmussen but yet Romney came back up again on top… This trend of Obama up one week then Romney up another week has been going on for the last two months…

mnjg on September 20, 2012 at 10:23 AM

And MAY I JUST SAY, THIS IS THE DIRECT RESULT OF GOP CRITICISMS OF THEIR OWN CANDIDATE!!!

mountainaires on September 20, 2012 at 10:11 AM

Why it couldn’t have ANYthing at ALL to do with Romney’s own feckelssness and ineptitude now, could it?

ddrintn on September 20, 2012 at 10:24 AM

Dead, since 2004…. Now, go…

jimver on September 20, 2012 at 10:22 AM

And Carter hasn’t been a candidate since 1980, when Reagan was very much alive. So?

ddrintn on September 20, 2012 at 10:25 AM

farsighted on September 20, 2012 at 10:22 AM

Look around you, do you really think that democrats are as energized as in 2008? No way that this is true based on a simple observation… The Obama mania is way, way, way down compared to 2008 in particular among the youth… Forget the damn polls and just look around you…

mnjg on September 20, 2012 at 10:26 AM

I think that this “gumbyandpokey” fool shall be banned. How can we push for his banning? He brings nothing here but childish and stupid comments… His goal is to try to demoralize us but of course the fool does not recognize that we are going to crawl on broking glass to vote… Never the less he is an extremely annoying person and for this alone he/she shall be banned.

mnjg on September 20, 2012 at 10:17 AM

I don’t know what their criteria is for banning people. If extremely annoying is it, thouygh, I have several other names to submit… :)

I’m just curious as to where it stands on the race. Is he just an extreme bed wetter on Romney’s side, or is he an Obama voter? At least the other trolls are honest about where they stand (for the most part).

changer1701 on September 20, 2012 at 10:26 AM

I keep reading that this is a conservative country, that there are more conservatives than liberals. Why then is Obama still leading in swing states? My god. What does it take for these people to see what is going on???

GadsdenRattlers on September 20, 2012 at 10:22 AM

Because we’re running a weak candidate who is apparently giving all his money away and may not be serious about winning? http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/20/us/politics/romney-campaign-cautious-with-ad-budget-even-in-key-states.html?hp

Doomberg on September 20, 2012 at 10:26 AM

I’m making phone calls this weekend for Romney in Michigan. What are you doing?

I’m going to continue to WHINE and cross my fingers.

gerry-mittbot-whiner

gerrym51 on September 20, 2012 at 10:27 AM

it’s hard for me to see Obama getting over 50% of the vote this time around even with a base turnout as large in 2008, or even marginally larger.

farsighted on September 20, 2012 at 10:22 AM

It’s even harder to see Mitt hitting 50% when he’s never done so in any national poll, even with so much that has been going for him over the past 4 years.

ddrintn on September 20, 2012 at 10:27 AM

Guess what kids? Today’s Rasmussen numbers show what to me looks like a significant shift — from Romney up 1 to Obama up 2. Sadly, the hyping of the “47 percent” nonsense seems to have been effective.

As Don Henley wrote (paraphrasing many others), “We get the government we deserve.” Sadly, it appears that many respondents to the polls are susceptible to the “Squirrel” approach.

FiveG on September 20, 2012 at 10:21 AM

Just relax… The same thing happened two weeks ago in Rasmussen but yet Romney came back up again on top… This trend of Obama up one week then Romney up another week has been going on for the last two months…

mnjg on September 20, 2012 at 10:28 AM

In all of those states, Obama is leading by the averages of polls. With enthusiasm up with Dems.

I’m making phone calls this weekend for Romney in Michigan. What are you doing?

GadsdenRattlers on September 20, 2012 at 10:22 AM

Indeed, and good on ya. I’m doing the same here in VA. If people want Obama gone, they’ve gotta step up.

changer1701 on September 20, 2012 at 10:28 AM

The reason the dems got a bigger bounce is because coservatives are already energized. So there’s not going to be as much upward trajectory. So what’s the dem strategy? Discourage conservatives.

Red Creek on September 20, 2012 at 10:28 AM

I don’t know what their criteria is for banning people. If extremely annoying is it, thouygh, I have several other names to submit… :)
.

changer1701 on September 20, 2012 at 10:26 AM

Yeah, there’s a while slew of drooling Mittbots who do nothing but hurl insults who could possibly be on that ban list.

ddrintn on September 20, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Dead, since 2004…. Now, go…

jimver on September 20, 2012 at 10:22 AM

And Carter hasn’t been a candidate since 1980, when Reagan was very much alive. So?

ddrintn on September 20, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Huh? Have I mentioned Carter anywhere??

jimver on September 20, 2012 at 10:29 AM

* whole

ddrintn on September 20, 2012 at 10:29 AM

don’t get mad, get out the vote!!

and for every minute you spend on hotair, take a minute to make a phone call, write a postcard, or spread the message to the undecideds, the waffles, and the disappointed.

wholefoodsrepublican on September 20, 2012 at 10:29 AM

I think that this “gumbyandpokey” fool shall be banned. How can we push for his banning? He brings nothing here but childish and stupid comments… His goal is to try to demoralize us but of course the fool does not recognize that we are going to crawl on broking glass to vote… Never the less he is an extremely annoying person and for this alone he/she shall be banned.

gumbyandpokey is obviously a liberal. but i don’t recall him ever using bad language or anti anygroup rhetoric.

i don’t care for his posts but i don’t think he has written anything worth banning him for other than being misguided

gerrym51 on September 20, 2012 at 10:30 AM

Huh? Have I mentioned Carter anywhere??

jimver on September 20, 2012 at 10:29 AM

No, uh, you see, the commenter tomwhom I was responding mentioned Carter. Geeeeeneyous.

ddrintn on September 20, 2012 at 10:30 AM

This impulse to shut people up you don’t agree with is a lefty trait.

ddrintn on September 20, 2012 at 10:20 AM

When it mattered most all you did was act like a child and bash romney instead of trying to beat obama.

The future of the Republic is at stake and this is all you’re good for?

You’re a disgrace!

LevinFan on September 20, 2012 at 10:32 AM

The MSM makes hay over Romney comments that are only “gaffes” to Democrats, then says “oh look, Romney’s not doing well.” It’s a perfect self-licking ice cream cone. The problem is, we have idiots on our team (Brooks, etc) that don’t understand this and so they do dumb stuff that validates the MSM trope.

Meanwhile, the economy is bad news on top of bad news, Obama made a huge gaffe calling Egypt “not an ally,” and Obama’s admin just got their ambassador killed, hauled off a guy whose only crime was making a bad video, apologized for free speech, walked back the apology, and was caught lying about how the ambassador was killed. Raise your hand if you think the media is ever going to start talking about Obama’s “bad weeks.”

That’s why we get these D+13, D+14. D+9 polls — not because anyone thinks the election will look like that, but because their false narrative desperately needs validation.

TallDave on September 20, 2012 at 10:33 AM

gumbyandpokey is obviously a liberal.

gerrym51 on September 20, 2012 at 10:30 AM

Yeah, I’ve been called an “obvious” liberal too, and asked for examples of my advocacy of liberal policies and politicians over the nmearly 4 years that I’ve been commenting here. None have been forthcoming. It’s funny that those who whine all the time about TrueCons and Purity Tests are the Pure Thought Brigade themselves.

ddrintn on September 20, 2012 at 10:33 AM

It’s even harder to see Mitt hitting 50% when he’s never done so in any national poll, even with so much that has been going for him over the past 4 years.

until this axiom is disproven”the challenger usually gets 3/4 of the late deciders” this is going to only be learnt on election day.

I still say Mitt will win in an election like 2004.

gerrym51 on September 20, 2012 at 10:33 AM

They need to deflate Republican enthusiasm and keep independents from engaging

And right on que the vermin arrive.

Hard Right on September 20, 2012 at 10:33 AM

The Obama mania is way, way, way down compared to 2008 in particular among the youth… Forget the damn polls and just look around you…

mnjg on September 20, 2012 at 10:26 AM

Just how enthused can the filthy Democrats be? If they put a bumper sticker on their vehicle it is one of those whimpy 2012 things with the tiny little O logo and not the huge Obama 08 things.

Happy Nomad on September 20, 2012 at 10:33 AM

Obama won with 53% of the vote in 2008 …

1. with a huge base turnout
2. by carrying independents by a large margin
3. by convincing some Republicans to vote for him
4. with a depressed GOP base turnout

This time around 2, 3, and 4 will likely not be true.

Further, in 2008 he also had the following going for him…

A. Bush fatigue
B. a bad GOP candidate who ran poor campaign
C. a huge financial crisis right before the election
D. the let’s elect the “First Black President” fever
E. an electorate that gave the Dems control of Congress in 2006

He has none of that going for him this time, except maybe B. However, with all his faults Romney is a better candidate than McCain.

And I have not listed all of the negatives Obama has this time he did not before, or the trend in elections since the fall of 2009. He was an unknown with no track record before.

While I hesitate to underestimate the stupidity or the socialist sympathies of the electorate, it’s hard for me to see Obama getting over 50% of the vote this time around even with a base turnout as large in 2008, or even marginally larger.

farsighted on September 20, 2012 at 10:22 AM

1. with a huge base turnout

They can’t really run on all that warm and fuzzy an vague “Hopenchange” load of barack (excuse the bad language).

2. by carrying independents by a large margin
3. by convincing some Republicans to vote for him

The dear liar is no longer a blank page able to be a socialists to one and Conservative to another – he’s a known quality.

4. with a depressed GOP base turnout

Right now it looks like the National Socialist Media and the Leftists [But that’s being repetitive] are banking on option 4 – depressing our vote.

But really, what is there to be enthused about our dear El Presidente?

Chip on September 20, 2012 at 10:33 AM

four ads have to run

1. the democrats booing God

2. obama leaning over and telling the president of our enemy Russia — wait til after the election, he will have more wiggle room against the backdrop of russian ships used in the democrat convention and our embassies on fire

3. you didn’t build that – with a picture of mom and her baby putting up a sign “Open for Business” and then ending with a sign “Closed for Business due to bad economy”

4. disaster in economy + disaster in foreign policy = disaster for our children

wholefoodsrepublican on September 20, 2012 at 10:34 AM

I’m just curious as to where it stands on the race. Is he just an extreme bed wetter on Romney’s side, or is he an Obama voter? At least the other trolls are honest about where they stand (for the most part).

changer1701 on September 20, 2012 at 10:26 AM

He is 100% an Obama voter and left wing lunatic…

mnjg on September 20, 2012 at 10:34 AM

When it mattered most all you did was act like a child and bash romney instead of trying to beat obama.

The future of the Republic is at stake and this is all you’re good for?

You’re a disgrace!

LevinFan on September 20, 2012 at 10:32 AM

The future of the Republic is the reason I’m against BOTH Obama and Romney.

ddrintn on September 20, 2012 at 10:34 AM

The reason the dems got a bigger bounce is because coservatives are already energized. So there’s not going to be as much upward trajectory. So what’s the dem strategy? Discourage conservatives.

Red Creek on September 20, 2012 at 10:28 AM

Yeah, but the comparison was between the levels of enthusiasm between the two groups, and the dems are leading 73% to 64%)…it wasn’t a study measuring just the surge in the levels of enthusiasm of the two groups in a given period of time (since June or so) if I understood it correctly…

jimver on September 20, 2012 at 10:35 AM

Well. Best pack it up now, we lost, its all over. No point in even bothering to vote.

Just take all your money out back and burn it too. Throw your cars and trucks away as well, because everyone is going to be riding the bus to the food stamp store now.

Good lord people.

Gatsu on September 20, 2012 at 10:35 AM

ddrintn on September 20, 2012 at 10:33 AM

Left or right, you are still an annoying douchebag and concern troll. Why do labels like liberal or conservative matter?

Happy Nomad on September 20, 2012 at 10:35 AM

Because we’re running a weak candidate who is apparently giving all his money away and may not be serious about winning? http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/20/us/politics/romney-campaign-cautious-with-ad-budget-even-in-key-states.html?hp

Doomberg on September 20, 2012 at 10:26 AM

I’m pretty sure Romney wants to win the Presidency. I don’t know what exactly his strategery is, but dude has been running for 6 years. He wants it. And I’m damn sure the GOP wants to win. They know if they blow this, they’ll have a major mess on their hands with a PO’d Tea Party that won’t be very receptive to voting for Republicans in future elections.

Doughboy on September 20, 2012 at 10:35 AM

ddrintn on September 20, 2012 at 10:33 AM

I forgive you. Vote for MITT anyway.

gerry-mittbot-always forgives

gerrym51 on September 20, 2012 at 10:36 AM

Yeah, there’s a while slew of drooling Mittbots who do nothing but hurl insults who could possibly be on that ban list.

ddrintn on September 20, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Speaking of trolls, how are you ddrintn? Got your Obama yard sign yet?

changer1701 on September 20, 2012 at 10:36 AM

Again with the polls?

People, don’t be discouraged or swayed by the polls.

From the American Spectator, The Problem with Obama’s Polls

Do not let these polls fool you. In 1980 similar polls showed Jimmy Carter leading the Old Cowboy almost to the very end. Carter was ahead of Governor Ronald Reagan by 4 points in late September, by 8 points in October, and the Gallup polls had him ahead of Reagan by 6 points in last days of the election. Reagan won by 9 points, sweeping 44 states. In 1988 Governor Dukakis at one point led Vice President George H. W. Bush by 17 points. He lost by almost 8 points.

Just get out there and vote.

Charlemagne on September 20, 2012 at 9:56 AM

Agreed that people need to get out there and vote – it is very discouraging to see numbers like these but it should not be very surprising. Here are two reasons why.

A) We are in 2012 – not in 1980. Let me be as blunt as possible – the white portion of the electorate has decreased – it is about 77% now and the remaining 23% is made up of blacks,Hispanics,asians etc. This was most definitely not the case back then.

B)Romney is the candidate – not Reagan. There is an entire world of difference between them as campaigners and as politicians who could inspire people from across the political divide. Romney can barely hang on to the conservative base while Reagan could inspire Democrats to vote for him.Reagan had vision and the finest communication skills to present them to the American people.Wish i could say the same thing about Romney but i cannot.

Full Disclosure: I am not American, moved back home a couple of years, but I still follow US politics on HA, Instapundit et al.I can very well understand why conservatives may not trust these polls or for that matter any thing printed in the msm but Romney has run a very safe and sedate campaign and has put himself on a losing trajectory.

nagee76 on September 20, 2012 at 10:37 AM

until this axiom is disproven”the challenger usually gets 3/4 of the late deciders” this is going to only be learnt on election day.

I still say Mitt will win in an election like 2004.

gerrym51 on September 20, 2012 at 10:33 AM

LOL, it’s going to be like 2004, all right. A boring, uninspiring challenger whose supposed base disliked him challenged and lost to the incumbent.

ddrintn on September 20, 2012 at 10:37 AM

gumbyandpokey is obviously a liberal. but i don’t recall him ever using bad language or anti anygroup rhetoric.

i don’t care for his posts but i don’t think he has written anything worth banning him for other than being misguided

gerrym51 on September 20, 2012 at 10:30 AM

He is a very annoying fool with the whole purpose of demoralizing people on this site. Although he is delusional to think that anyone of us would not vote because of biased polls showing Obama winning, it is still very annoying to have a fool like this on this forum… At least with the other few liberal trolls you can have an ideologial discussion but this guy only shows up to tell us Romney lost the elections give up…

mnjg on September 20, 2012 at 10:38 AM

The future of the Republic is the reason I’m against BOTH Obama and Romney.

ddrintn

If you won’t be voting for Romney, then you are helping the dems, and you are as blind as you accuse others of being.

Hard Right on September 20, 2012 at 10:38 AM

Speaking of trolls, how are you ddrintn? Got your Obama yard sign yet?

changer1701 on September 20, 2012 at 10:36 AM

No, why should I? WHen have I ever said I’m voting for Obama? Or when have I ever supported any lefty pol or policy? Still waiting for some evidence from the Pure Thought Police.

ddrintn on September 20, 2012 at 10:39 AM

I’m making phone calls this weekend for Romney in Michigan. What are you doing?

GadsdenRattlers on September 20, 2012 at 10:22 AM

I stumped for him last Saturday in MI, for several hours, going door-to-door, doing a survey and offering literature. How about the rest of the voters?

totherightofthem on September 20, 2012 at 10:39 AM

LOL, it’s going to be like 2004, all right. A boring, uninspiring challenger whose supposed base disliked him challenged and lost to the incumbent.

ddrintn

That’s it. It’s all over. Go out and kill yourself now then.

Hard Right on September 20, 2012 at 10:40 AM

The future of the Republic is the reason I’m against BOTH Obama and Romney.

ddrintn on September 20, 2012 at 10:34 AM

You people are getting quite tiresome – WHAT THE H***L IS YOUR REALISTIC SOLUTION TO THE PROBLEM THEN!

We have Two choices – that’s it.

One towards Liberty and one towards the slavery of socialism.

It’s a time for choosing (to coin a phrase)

Chip on September 20, 2012 at 10:40 AM

The biggest concern is that Romney is not spending on the airwaves as he should be doing, lending credence to the NYT article that RR funding is not where it should be. The alternative hypothesis is that the Romney internal polling is better than the public polling, and they are waiting to shoot their wad.

That said, large donors had damned well start writing some big checks to the SuperPacs – their money is worthless if Obama wins in November.

Yes, I’ve made 11 financial gifts to Romney to date but I am not independently wealthy.

It wouldn’t hurt for Romney relatives to write some large checks to the PACs as well. Part of the MSM hysteria of the last 2 weeks is to diminish expectations of a Romney win, thus helping Obama raise more cash.

Waiting too long into October to spend everything is a mistake, because events and ad fatigue can render those dollars less effective.

matthew8787 on September 20, 2012 at 10:40 AM

Left or right, you are still an annoying douchebag and concern troll. Why do labels like liberal or conservative matter?

Happy Nomad on September 20, 2012 at 10:35 AM

What makes me really REALLY annoying is that you can’t argue with me.

ddrintn on September 20, 2012 at 10:41 AM

I think Bill Kristol actually wants Romney to lose.

earlgrey133 on September 20, 2012 at 10:16 AM

I think this is true of several Beltway Republicans, who are neither conservative nor in touch with what’s really going on in this country and how horribly damaging a second Obama term would be to those of us not in the protected elite ruling D.C. class that insulated prigs like Kristol inhabit.

Right Mover on September 20, 2012 at 10:42 AM

That’s it. It’s all over. Go out and kill yourself now then.

Hard Right on September 20, 2012 at 10:40 AM

Nice. Behold the ‘bot mentality. Mirror image of the nasty Bush-deranged moonbats of 2004.

ddrintn on September 20, 2012 at 10:42 AM

The future of the Republic is the reason I’m against BOTH Obama and Romney.

ddrintn on September 20, 2012 at 10:34 AM

For God’s sake, we won’t even recognize this nation in 2016 if Obama is re-elected.

And as William Simon pointed out years ago, any type of financial crisis will only result in Americans rushing MORE to government, not less, culminating in more of a socialistic dictatorship.

matthew8787 on September 20, 2012 at 10:43 AM

What makes me really REALLY annoying is that you can’t argue with me.

ddrintn

There is no point arguing with a delusional moron like you.

Hard Right on September 20, 2012 at 10:43 AM

LOL, it’s going to be like 2004, all right. A boring, uninspiring challenger whose supposed base disliked him challenged and lost to the incumbent.

ddrintn on September 20, 2012 at 10:37 AM

Yeah, but the state of this country is far worse than what it was in 2004. Obama would give his left nut(once he got it back from Moochelle) to have the kind of economy Bush had back then.

Doughboy on September 20, 2012 at 10:43 AM

Oh please . . . Gallup is still smarting from the last time Obama and Holder stepped on their heads. Obama is their client and their polls reflect that truism.

rplat on September 20, 2012 at 10:43 AM

Yeah, but the state of this country is far worse than what it was in 2004. Obama would give his left nut(once he got it back from Moochelle) to have the kind of economy Bush had back then.

Doughboy on September 20, 2012 at 10:43 AM

Yeah, and Romney’s STILL losing.

ddrintn on September 20, 2012 at 10:44 AM

The future of the Republic is at stake and this is all you’re good for?

You’re a disgrace!

LevinFan on September 20, 2012 at 10:32 AM

The future of the Republic is the reason I’m against BOTH Obama and Romney.

ddrintn on September 20, 2012 at 10:34 AM

The republic is f…ed anyways….the idea is what can be rescued…for instance are we going to be third world (4 more years of Obama will definitely take us there) or still first world, but third tier first world, way behind the new superpowers and economic winners to be, which I guess it’s still ok…I think Romney can keep us in the first world, even though we will lose our privileged status and we will never the force we used to be…the decline is unavoidable, and after all there’s nothing unusual, all empires rise and fall, but I’d prefer a gradual correction, and a cushier landing, Romney csn help us avoid an abysmal and epic fall that Obama will no doubt be the artisan of…

jimver on September 20, 2012 at 10:44 AM

Happy Nomad on September 20, 2012 at 10:35 AM

What makes me really REALLY annoying is that you can’t argue with me.

ddrintn on September 20, 2012 at 10:41 AM

liberal or conservative?

Which do you consider yourself?

You’re coming across a Lib – and if you claim to be a Conservative….

Chip on September 20, 2012 at 10:44 AM

What makes me really REALLY annoying is that you can’t argue with me.

ddrintn

There is no point arguing with a delusional moron like you.

Hard Right on September 20, 2012 at 10:43 AM

You just don’t have what it takes, buttercup.

ddrintn on September 20, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Left or right, you are still an annoying douchebag and concern troll. Why do labels like liberal or conservative matter?

Happy Nomad on September 20, 2012 at 10:35 AM

What makes me really REALLY annoying is that you can’t argue with me.

ddrintn on September 20, 2012 at 10:41 AM

Indeedyou are a master debator :) (pun totally intended :)…

jimver on September 20, 2012 at 10:46 AM

ddrintn on September 20, 2012 at 10:45 AM

liberal or conservative?

Which do you consider yourself?

You’re coming across as a Lib – and if you claim to be a Conservative…

Chip on September 20, 2012 at 10:47 AM

Interesting interview last night on one of the Sirius stations. A pundit said that Obama seems to have a very high floor and a low ceiling, meaning there is a certain percentage that he will simply not get below. The speaker said it was probably around Romney’s 47% figure. Nationally, this race will be within a 3-4 point spread from now till election day.

That means its boils down to the swing states….and election day turnout. The key to determining the turnout will be what else is on the ballot in those states.

Here in Michigan, we have a proposal to add collective bargaining rights to our state constitution, which will help bring out the union vote.

We also have a proposal to eliminate Emergency Managers for Bankrupt cites. This will turn our the urban vote.

Also, the is the home care proposal which would unionize all home care works in the state under the guise of ” keeping home care safe”.

So turnout in Michigan may not be because they Like Obama, but because they like their unions…..

GadsdenRattlers on September 20, 2012 at 10:47 AM

The republic is f…ed anyways….the idea is what can be rescued…

jimver on September 20, 2012 at 10:44 AM

And Romney’s doing the rescuing? LOL, give me a break. If Romney’s elected, he’ll take a squish course and you little corps of GOPe whores will be jumping all over any naysayers just like you’re doing right now.

ddrintn on September 20, 2012 at 10:47 AM

Obama has been an abject failure by any reasonable standard. If the American electorate is stupid enough to re-elect him, God help us. A second term could do enough damage to take 20 years to repair.

My gut tells me Romney will have a very hard time winning unless he steps up and takes command in a big way. I am beginning to doubt he will. The fact that the race is so tight is a harbinger for things to come. What has happened to the once proud, can do, frontier people that relied on themselves and had a deeply felt sense of personal responsibility? What has happened to common sense? My frustration runs very deep. Think about our kids. Will they have the national pride and confidence I had growing up? How could they being raised in a flunkie vote farm where the principal goal is lowering the common denominator for the citizens?

saiga on September 20, 2012 at 10:48 AM

ddrintn on September 20, 2012 at 10:47 AM

liberal or conservative?

Which do you consider yourself?

You’re coming across as a Lib – and if you claim to be a Conservative…

Chip on September 20, 2012 at 10:48 AM

What are the driver’s for the slobbering over Obama? Guaranteeing the right to kill the unborn? Promising another inefficient gooberment bureaucracy to “take care” of any and all problems even if gooberment is notoriously inefficent and expensive and we can’t pay for it? Fooling people into believing that they have zero responsibility for any events that occur in their lives? Creating a bloated unsustainable safety hammock to absolve people of personal responsibility? Denigrating anyone who disagrees with the idea of personal responsibility or personal success while simultaneously and speciously claiming to be the “president of all the people.”. Seriously, libs, if you are buying that you are being willfully ignorant. I have no problem with you continuing to suffer the failures that go along with your ignorance because I get that this deferral of taking care of yourself while expecting others to take care of you and your never ending neediness allows you to feel some sense of undeserved moral superiority but in this case, your misguided worship of an inept, grasping, arrogant empty suit is dragging the rest of us down with you. Wake up already!

natasha333 on September 20, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Many of the 47% in fact think that they are part of the 53% and agree with Romney that there are far too many takers… Many of them are Working class whites…

mnjg on September 20, 2012 at 9:54 AM

Nobody believes that they’re the 47% moochers he’s talking about though…it’s always the other guy. Yeah, libs were offended because he revealed the Left’s cradle to grave, grievance-mongering agenda better than they do, but that family of 5 that isn’t a family of brain-dead liberals likely won’t be.

changer1701 on September 20, 2012 at 9:56 AM

Right, and I think Erika touched on this yesterday, the only way Oblamer can begin to challenge Romney on this is by telling those people who do not think they are in the 47% that they are…and that won’t go over very well

right of the dial on September 20, 2012 at 10:49 AM

I think this is true of several Beltway Republicans, who are neither conservative nor in touch with what’s really going on in this country and how horribly damaging a second Obama term would be to those of us not in the protected elite ruling D.C. class that insulated prigs like Kristol inhabit.

Right Mover on September 20, 2012 at 10:42 AM

Yes. For all this talk about how Romney was the Establishment choice, I don’t think that is altogether accurate. Remember when they pushed Perry into the race as an alternative? A lot of DC heavyweights were behind that.

changer1701 on September 20, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Can play it safe Mitt contend with this constant slobbering monster that is “medium as the message”? Can anyone/anything contend with it?

onomo on September 20, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Obama won with 53% of the vote in 2008 …

1. with a huge base turnout
2. by carrying independents by a large margin
3. by convincing some Republicans to vote for him
4. with a depressed GOP base turnout

This time around 2, 3, and 4 will likely not be true.

Further, in 2008 he also had the following going for him…

A. Bush fatigue
B. a bad GOP candidate who ran poor campaign
C. a huge financial crisis right before the election
D. the let’s elect the “First Black President” fever
E. an electorate that gave the Dems control of Congress in 2006

He has none of that going for him this time, except maybe B. However, with all his faults Romney is a better candidate than McCain.

And I have not listed all of the negatives Obama has this time he did not before, or the trend in elections since the fall of 2009. He was an unknown with no track record before.

While I hesitate to underestimate the stupidity or the socialist sympathies of the electorate, it’s hard for me to see Obama getting over 50% of the vote this time around even with a base turnout as large in 2008, or even marginally larger.

farsighted on September 20, 2012 at 10:22 AM

Very well said!!!

People tend to forget many of the things you listed, I know I did.

Many of these reasons are why I have thought ROmney will win all along.

DOesn’t mean I won’t do everything I can to make it happen though as I hope many on here will do the same!

LevinFan on September 20, 2012 at 10:51 AM

ddrintn on September 20, 2012 at 10:47 AM

liberal or conservative?

Which do you consider yourself to be?

You’re coming across as a Lib – and if you claim to be a Conservative…

What’s the matter? Can’t answer that?

Chip on September 20, 2012 at 10:51 AM

There is no point arguing with a delusional moron like you.

Hard Right on September 20, 2012 at 10:43 AM

Could have told you that. LOL Ignore it.

Deanna on September 20, 2012 at 10:51 AM

I’m pretty sure Romney wants to win the Presidency. I don’t know what exactly his strategery is, but dude has been running for 6 years. He wants it. And I’m damn sure the GOP wants to win. They know if they blow this, they’ll have a major mess on their hands with a PO’d Tea Party that won’t be very receptive to voting for Republicans in future elections.

Doughboy on September 20, 2012 at 10:35 AM

This is me. If Romney loses, it’s time for a third party. It’s probably time now, but we need Obama out of their and a third party will not win this election.

GadsdenRattlers on September 20, 2012 at 10:52 AM

When you lose this election, and it is the END of the Republican Party AND Conservatism for a generation, I hope you look back in horror at your participation in undermining this country, because that is precisely what all of you will have done. God help you.

mountainaires on September 20, 2012 at 10:11 AM

By default, the human condition is not capable of self-reflection. It is a condition that must learned. By a vast majority margin, most humans have not learned that lesson.

For sure you have set your hopes too high.

Carnac on September 20, 2012 at 10:52 AM

The future of the Republic is the reason I’m against BOTH Obama and Romney.

ddrintn on September 20, 2012 at 10:34 AM

There IS NO future for the Republic if Obama gets another four years. Why is it that some people do not understand this?!

At least we can hold Romney’s feet to the fire if he goes off course. Because he will know he will be toast if he doesn’t listen.
Obama is going to do what Obama(and his socialist inclinations) is going to do, whether we, or anyone like it or not; through executive order when the proper channels don’t work for him. We have already seen that.
Btw, did you hear that the administration is ready to proceed with an executive order for increased cyber”security”? What do you think that will do for opposing viewpoints(who will be labeled “domestic terrorists” – oops, already have been by Janet Napolitano)?!

Sterling Holobyte on September 20, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Only Nov. 6th votes will count up.

Many of U.S. have pre-voted via lusting for the dole thus that % is in the bag as some are so rude to say out loud.

Only question left for the left is how to strip a higer % of tax money aka theft of our labor/lives from the rest of U.S..

The IRS ability to put U.S. in a gulag is well known by all.

These new redistribution sneak attacks from within just may pull more into the dole rolls. Hell it may even get this first commie a second term.

But yet comes the Demon of the True History, he rides the collection horse, a huge thing by the end of a second commie Obama term of more than 20 trillion inflated dollars. The collection of the debt will come. It will dole itself first. Those on the dole when the spring runs dry will be on their on alone as the commies turn on them an pass them the final solution news.

When the commie Democrats have nothing in the tax theft cubbard and there is no bread on the dole table.

Who of the dole clan will have the lust for freedom enough to stand up and say no more. There will be only the hopeless lines of fools with vacant stares and hungry children with hungry eyes.

In a way those of U.S. who vote for the current Republican , Romney are the sheep dogs who attempt to prevent these commie wolfs from hearding these ones into the commie food chain to be eaten alive later.

So, we will do all we can to help ourselves and these misguided ones at the same time.

We will well remember though these leaders of the commie Democrat Party and hold them to a firm justice of the Demon of the True History.

For there in the tree line, with red angry eyes, blood red, sits the judgment of the Demon of History on a huge black horse of debt,coming near, near, he sees the guilty, clop, clop, clop, CLOP, COLP the huge hooves of the truth.

APACHEWHOKNOWS on September 20, 2012 at 10:52 AM

The republic is f…ed anyways….the idea is what can be rescued…

jimver on September 20, 2012 at 10:44 AM

And Romney’s doing the rescuing? LOL, give me a break. If Romney’s elected, he’ll take a squish course and you little corps of GOPe whores will be jumping all over any naysayers just like you’re doing right now.

ddrintn on September 20, 2012 at 10:47 AM

As a dimtard whore, you are different how???

jimver on September 20, 2012 at 10:53 AM

“Again with the polls?

People, don’t be discouraged or swayed by the polls.

From the American Spectator, The Problem with Obama’s Polls

Do not let these polls fool you. In 1980 similar polls showed Jimmy Carter leading the Old Cowboy almost to the very end. Carter was ahead of Governor Ronald Reagan by 4 points in late September, by 8 points in October, and the Gallup polls had him ahead of Reagan by 6 points in last days of the election. Reagan won by 9 points, sweeping 44 states. In 1988 Governor Dukakis at one point led Vice President George H. W. Bush by 17 points. He lost by almost 8 points.

Just get out there and vote.

Charlemagne on September 20, 2012 at 9:56 AM”

Good grief, another of the lame “Reagan always trailed Carter” talking points. And, please, for all that is Holy, don’t ever compare Bush/Dukakis to Obama/Romney. You do know that the GOP had the second convention that year, don’t you, which is a gigantic advantage? People here try to twist themselves into pretzels explaining bad poll numbers.

And, once again, for any of you who think Reagan was behind in the average of polls at this time…

http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/debunking-a-myth-reagan-was-leading-carter-long-before-that-final-october-debate/

gumbyandpokey on September 20, 2012 at 10:54 AM

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