Gallup: Democratic enthusiasm surges in swing states, nationally

posted at 9:21 am on September 20, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

As anyone who watched the Democratic national convention’s Abortion-Palooza could easily determine, Barack Obama and his campaign team have settled for a base-turnout election rather than appeal to the moderates.  So far, that strategy appears to have paid dividends.  Gallup’s poll today shows enthusiasm increasing in all affiliations in both the swing states and nationally, but Democrats have gotten the biggest enthusiasm surge:

Voters in the 12 states USA Today and Gallup consider the key swing states that could decide the 2012 presidential election are now significantly more enthusiastic about voting this fall than they were in June. Six in 10 (59%) are either “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic, up from 46%.

Voter enthusiasm in these states has grown among members of both political parties; however, Democrats’ level has increased more. Thus, whereas equal percentages of Democrats and Republicans were enthusiastic in June, Democrats are now significantly more enthusiastic than Republicans, 73% vs. 64%.

Independents’ enthusiasm also jumped substantially over this period — up 18 points, similar to the 20-point gain among Democrats; however, independents’ enthusiasm still lags behind that of both partisan groups.

How big was the bump? Democrats got a +20 from the swing states since the end of June, while Republicans only got a +9, with Democrats now leading 73/64 on that score.  Independents got almost the same size bump as Democrats at +18, but that only puts them at 43% being either extremely or very enthusiastic.  Nationally, Democrats got a +19 and Republicans a +10, similar to the swing-state bumps, while independents only got a +9.  This would explain the post-convention bump that lifted Barack Obama for more than a week over his rival in Gallup’s tracking poll.

A few things to note, however, about the polling methodology. This poll took place among registered voters, not likely voters, although enthusiasm is one way to determine the likely-voter model for this election (the other major factor being a history of voting).  The other point to consider is the polling dates of this particular survey, which took place between September 11 and September 17.  That’s a long period of time, with the first couple of days still within the big-bump region of Gallup’s post-convention tracking poll.  In fact, September 11 was the peak of that post-convention bounce, with Obama up seven — but yesterday only had Obama up one point, 47/46.

The big question for Team Obama is whether they can sustain their base-turnout strategy for the two-month grind ahead, as George W. Bush managed to do in 2004 over John Kerry.  The enthusiasm bump suggests that they can succeed in short spurts, but the deflation in Obama’s standing in the tracking poll suggests that Obama enthusiasm alone will be difficult to sustain in the long term.  They need to deflate Republican enthusiasm and keep independents from engaging, and this poll suggests that they didn’t have much success even in the short term with those efforts.


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AMAZING what a little Chicago-thuggery will do for your poll numbers.

stenwin77 on September 20, 2012 at 9:24 AM

In case anyone missed the bomb Rasmussen dropped this morning… The same Rasmussen everyone hung their hopes on…

Obama now up 47-45 in. Up 50-47 with leaners. Up 47-46 in swing states, 49-47 with leaners. GAME OVER.

gumbyandpokey on September 20, 2012 at 9:24 AM

A whole lotta people just figured out that their subsidized gravy train may stop come January, and now the desperation is starting to creep in.

Bishop on September 20, 2012 at 9:24 AM

W H Y ?

KOOLAID2 on September 20, 2012 at 9:24 AM

enthusiasm, enschmooziasm, let’s see the vote.

itsspideyman on September 20, 2012 at 9:24 AM

The swing state polls in FL, OH and VA this week suggests they have succeeded where it counts. Romney can have NH and even Colorado if Obama wins those three.

libfreeordie on September 20, 2012 at 9:25 AM

That poll is completely meaningless. You would expect this to be the peak of the Democrat enthusiasm. Poll one month from now to see if any of that enthusiasm lasts.

neoavatara on September 20, 2012 at 9:25 AM

gumbyandpokey on September 20, 2012 at 9:24 AM

The clay brains are here again.

itsspideyman on September 20, 2012 at 9:25 AM

Obama now up 47-45 in. Up 50-47 with leaners. Up 47-46 in swing states, 49-47 with leaners. GAME OVER.

gumbyandpokey on September 20, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Clay brain, you’re the one it seems to be pining their hopes on a poll….

itsspideyman on September 20, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Gallup was hustled so while they shouldn’t be dismissed…look elsewhere as well.

tomas on September 20, 2012 at 9:26 AM

And of course here’s dumboandpokeme to theorize how a one point difference in polling day to day is a sign of doom for Mitt but no big deal for Dog Boy.

Bishop on September 20, 2012 at 9:27 AM

In case anyone missed the bomb Rasmussen dropped this morning… The same Rasmussen everyone hung their hopes on…

Obama now up 47-45 in. Up 50-47 with leaners. Up 47-46 in swing states, 49-47 with leaners. GAME OVER.

gumbyandpokey on September 20, 2012 at 9:24 AM

My goodness you are one annoying individual.

gophergirl on September 20, 2012 at 9:27 AM

I find it hard to believe the youth and minority vote is really going to get out when it comes down to it. Though with no jobs they probably can.

tomas on September 20, 2012 at 9:27 AM

In case anyone missed the bomb Rasmussen dropped this morning… The same Rasmussen everyone hung their hopes on…

Obama now up 47-45 in. Up 50-47 with leaners. Up 47-46 in swing states, 49-47 with leaners. GAME OVER.

gumbyandpokey on September 20, 2012 at 9:24 AM

I think independent voters in the 47% are not thrilled by Romney’s argument that the only way they will become personally responsible is if they give up their Earned Income Credits, their interest payment and other deductions. Romney’s 47% speech framed a family of 5 making 50,000 a year as “moochers.” That’s just dumb politics.

libfreeordie on September 20, 2012 at 9:27 AM

In case anyone missed the bomb Rasmussen dropped this morning… The same Rasmussen everyone hung their hopes on…

Obama now up 47-45 in. Up 50-47 with leaners. Up 47-46 in swing states, 49-47 with leaners. GAME OVER.

gumbyandpokey on September 20, 2012 at 9:24 AM

You mean the same Rasmussen that shows Romney up 3-4 days out of the week and Obama either tied or slightly ahead the rest of the time? Yeah, game over.

Doughboy on September 20, 2012 at 9:27 AM

Is this the day for me to panic or the week to breathe a sigh of relief?

aunursa on September 20, 2012 at 9:27 AM

https://twitter.com/fsroundtable/status/248757058592182272

This shows you what Tim Pawlenty thinks of Romney’s chances.

Mark1971 on September 20, 2012 at 9:28 AM

Meme
Meme
Meme
Meme
Meme

SouthernGent on September 20, 2012 at 9:28 AM


gumbyandpokey on September 20, 2012

…pole…poll…pole…poll…pole…poll…pole…poll…pole…eatshitsleep…poll…pole…poll…pole…poll…yankmy…pole…poll…pole…poll…playwithmy…pole….poll…pole…poll…pole…poll…sitonmy…pole…poll..pole…poll…

KOOLAID2 on September 20, 2012 at 9:28 AM

Tangential but related observation: for all the dumping on W, for my money he remains the most skilled R campaigner for national office since Ronald Reagan.

Seriously, who has been better? Not his father. Not Bob Dole. Not John McCain. Not Mitt Romney (yet). Not VP candidates Quayle and Palin. Ryan is doing fine, and I don’t have a clear memory of Kemp’s effect, but I don’t think either can claim to have outperformed W.

A R running for national office faces huge challenges — the opposition of the mainstream press for one, the greater diversity and fractiousness of the R base relative to the D’s another. If it were easy to do what W did, more would have done it.

Chuckles3 on September 20, 2012 at 9:28 AM

Do these people even poll people that have only cell phones?

albill on September 20, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Our foreign affairs are failing miserably with American lives being lost….

An older American asks Obama if her mother can live a little longer…Obama said no.

Obama allowed illegal guns into the hands of the Cartel and lives are lost…..

I don’t understand why his polls aren’t higher…

Electrongod on September 20, 2012 at 9:29 AM

I hope that Ed or Allah is considering a post on how Obama is sending out invites for the “Last Supper” with Obama as well as selling “Our Stripes” flag that looks as if it is a blood stained tunic with Obama’s symbol where the stars should be. The implication here is that, if he loses, it is going to be spun as a crucifixion, a sinless man going to the cross of electoral defeat based upon our sin. The signs are out there that this is exactly what they are doing. sorry ed, ot.

ted c on September 20, 2012 at 9:29 AM

At this point, ALL POLLING IS SUSPECT, even Rasmussen.

Take the Pew Poll yesterday trumpeting an 8 point Obama lead nationally (clearly a extreme outlier). Here is some of the math in that poll which doesn’t add up:

Dem +9 in the sample.
Romney +18 with men (yes staggering).
Romney +9 with Independents.
Obama +3 with women.
56% of sample is women (way way way too high).

So, Romney is ahead by 18 points with me, 9 points with Independents and STILL he loses overall by 8? I mean how the hell do you even get there?

Why is Rasmussen suspect? In a recent poll he stated that Romney lead Independents by 10 yet only lead overall by 1. Only way you get there is with Dem 2008 sample.

mitchellvii on September 20, 2012 at 9:30 AM

In case anyone missed the bomb Rasmussen dropped this morning… The same Rasmussen everyone hung their hopes on…

Obama now up 47-45 in. Up 50-47 with leaners. Up 47-46 in swing states, 49-47 with leaners. GAME OVER.

gumbyandpokey on September 20, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Rubbish.

rickv404 on September 20, 2012 at 9:30 AM

https://twitter.com/fsroundtable/status/248757058592182272

This shows you what Tim Pawlenty thinks of Romney’s chances.

Mark1971 on September 20, 2012 at 9:28 AM

What does that have to do with anything?

changer1701 on September 20, 2012 at 9:30 AM

GAME OVER.

gumbyandpokey on September 20, 2012 at 9:24 AM

You are so right…

Electrongod on September 20, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Based on what? Por unemployment numbers? Unanswered terror attacks? Dissing the PM of Israel? Afghanis killing our soldiers after we trained them?

Bullroar.

princetrumpet on September 20, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Romney is ahead by 18 points with me – meant “men”.

mitchellvii on September 20, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Gallup better say that or the Justice Department will shut them down for charging too much for “bad” polls.

Fleuries on September 20, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Rasmussen is as suspect as the rest. He is clearly using 2008 Dem turnout numbers as well.

mitchellvii on September 20, 2012 at 9:32 AM

What does that have to do with anything?

changer1701 on September 20, 2012 at 9:30 AM

You really think he would be taking this job if he thought Romney would be in position to give him one next year?

Mark1971 on September 20, 2012 at 9:32 AM

Why is Rasmussen suspect? In a recent poll he stated that Romney lead Independents by 10 yet only lead overall by 1. Only way you get there is with Dem 2008 sample.

mitchellvii on September 20, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Maybe Ras adjusted his sample after the Dem convention to reflect increased enthusiasm amongst Democrat voters. I keep saying the key to all of this is turnout. Romney has the edge with indies, so if we make it a draw between Democrats and Republicans on Election Day, he’ll win.

Doughboy on September 20, 2012 at 9:33 AM

Live with polls. Die with polls.

as i learned in the primaries-when the polls are within the margin
of error-when the votes are counted the result is often different.

the polls are generally correct when their is a big gap of someone ahead of another.

when its close its indeed a tossup.

gerrym51 on September 20, 2012 at 9:35 AM

Why is Rasmussen suspect? In a recent poll he stated that Romney lead Independents by 10 yet only lead overall by 1. Only way you get there is with Dem 2008 sample.

mitchellvii on September 20, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Well, let’s be honest…if these enthusiasm numbers are accurate (a big if, certainly), Dem turnout might indeed approach ’08 levels.

changer1701 on September 20, 2012 at 9:36 AM

In case anyone missed the bomb Rasmussen dropped this morning… The same Rasmussen everyone hung their hopes on…

Obama now up 47-45 in. Up 50-47 with leaners. Up 47-46 in swing states, 49-47 with leaners. GAME OVER.

gumbyandpokey on September 20, 2012 at 9:24 AM

How do you know this? The polls aren’t posted.

libfreeordie on September 20, 2012 at 9:36 AM

gumbyandpokey on September 20, 2012 at 9:24 AM

So when Romney is back up in a day or two, you’ll concede defeat on Obama’s half, right?

The Count on September 20, 2012 at 9:36 AM

GAME OVER.

gumbyandpokey on September 20, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Well aren’t you the lucky one? Now you won’t have to bother going to the polls on Nov 6.

CJ on September 20, 2012 at 9:36 AM

They need to deflate Republican enthusiasm and keep independents from engaging, and this poll suggests that they didn’t have much success even in the short term with those efforts.

No effing way. I would willingly walk over burning coals to be at my polling place at 6am on November 6th. And I won’t be alone.

Happy Nomad on September 20, 2012 at 9:37 AM

If Romney loses and we still have an election in 2016 can we please not nominate another squish RINO.

bgibbs1000 on September 20, 2012 at 9:38 AM

But why then does a CBS poll from 9/18 say that republicans have a huge advantage in swing state enthusiasm?????

CBS Poll: GOP Has Huge Turnout Edge Over Dems

Please make it stop!! Ugggghhhh!

jazzmo on September 20, 2012 at 9:39 AM

First – polls are now meaningless – the MSM
is just making this up. Don’t believe anything
the MSM says from now on.

Second – remember Carter was up on Reagan until
one week before the election. This was when
the MSM was not a direct propaganda arm
of the socialists. And Reagan won in a
landslide.

Third – Romney is showing some real
Conservative tendencies. This has the
MSM terrified. Part of the 47 video
also reveals that Romney knows the
Fed is just printing money because
no one is lending us money. Whoever
becomes President will have a huge task
ahead. I don’t think Obama will be up
to the task. He would rather have parties
with $100,000 champaign towers.

redguy on September 20, 2012 at 9:39 AM

One odd thing though. I have kept hearing about how Romney has all this money and is going to go crazy with great ads.

I live here in NC and see Obama ads (all of them complete BS) all day long. I am seeing NO Romney ads. What the hell is Romney doing with all that money? Where are the ads?

mitchellvii on September 20, 2012 at 9:39 AM

libfreeordie on September 20, 2012 at 9:36 AM

I think premium members can get results early.

gerry-mittbot

gerrym51 on September 20, 2012 at 9:39 AM

47% are up in arms and since they have no jobs… They gonna be WORKING hard to keep their government benefits.

So long as we leave the welfare state in place, it will just continue to corrupt citizens and drag the country lower and lower and lower month after month, year after year, decade after long decade we will have fewer and fewer people willing to take responsibility for their own lives and the lives of their immediate relationships.

astonerii on September 20, 2012 at 9:41 AM

These polls are meaningless, and I will not be whipsawed by this nonsense. About two weeks from the election, these polls will start making more sense as the usual suspects try and salvage their credibility.

The only poll that counts is election day. Still optimistic about a R/R win. But, still buying ammo too.

tbarleycorn on September 20, 2012 at 9:42 AM

GAME OVER.

gumbyandpokey on September 20, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Oct 18, 1980

Gallup
Carter 46
Reagan 39

kevinkristy on September 20, 2012 at 9:42 AM

For anyone hanging their hopes on Rasmussen.

I saw him on FoxNews the other day and this is what he actually said:

“Mitt Romney is a terrible candidate.”

Does that sound like the words of an unbiased Pollster to you?

mitchellvii on September 20, 2012 at 9:43 AM

The only reason I care about any polls, is to read y’all’s comments …. LOL.
Only Nov 6 counts.
Everything else is just something to occupy the pundits, as they attempt to manipulate the election turnout and results.
Ain’t buying, or even interested in, poll numbers … why bother ??
IMHO.

pambi on September 20, 2012 at 9:43 AM

gumbyandpokey on September 20, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Keep telling yourself that, you f**king troll.

wargamer6 on September 20, 2012 at 9:44 AM

If Romney loses and we still have an election in 2016 can we please not nominate another squish RINO.

bgibbs1000 on September 20, 2012 at 9:38 AM

If Romney loses, the 2016 election won’t matter. The Supreme Court will be stacked with liberal justices rendering any future actions(at least major ones) by a Republican President and Congress meaningless. And will any decent Republican candidate, conservative or otherwise, even want the job in 4 years once the economy collapses under the weight of Obama’s policies?

Doughboy on September 20, 2012 at 9:44 AM

POLLSALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

Step right up. Get your poll. A sucker is born every minute.

gerry-mittbot-super pollster reader

gerrym51 on September 20, 2012 at 9:44 AM

GAME OVER.

gumbyandpokey on September 20, 2012 at 9:24 AM

OK, so why aren’t you doing something else? Why not pick up a new hobby. GAME OVER generally means that you stop playing.

earlgrey133 on September 20, 2012 at 9:44 AM

One odd thing though. I have kept hearing about how Romney has all this money and is going to go crazy with great ads.

I live here in NC and see Obama ads (all of them complete BS) all day long. I am seeing NO Romney ads. What the hell is Romney doing with all that money? Where are the ads?

mitchellvii on September 20, 2012 at 9:39 AM

There’s a Headline piece about that very issue. Apparently the Romney camp is being “cautious” with their ad spending, and as a result Obama is pummeling him on the airwaves. Could be they’re holding onto it now in order to overwhelm O in the last few weeks before the election, but who knows.

changer1701 on September 20, 2012 at 9:45 AM

Either the pollster are playing us for fools, or the respondents are playing the pollsters for fools.

SouthernGent on September 20, 2012 at 9:45 AM

When “leaners” are included, the race is tied with both Obama and Romney at 48%

-Rasmussen 9/20

Concern trolls trolling concern

The Count on September 20, 2012 at 9:47 AM

This election cycle will mark the end of polling as a credible industry. They simply can’t keep up with the demographic and technological changes from landlines to cell phones and any internet based poll is wide open to abuse.

This is why we need to continue the push for voter ID laws and ensure that voter fraud is eliminated. They can’t cheat and win if it’s not close and the media is trying to convince us it’s closer than it really is.

CitizenEgg on September 20, 2012 at 9:49 AM

Holy cow- is today election day? Its over? I forgot to vote

Bensonofben on September 20, 2012 at 9:49 AM

GAME OVER.

gumbyandpokey on September 20, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Ha!

The only poll that matters to me is the one in November. Until then it’s all noise. However if you must live and die by what a poll says, wait until we get closer in and the pollsters start getting more honest.

HotAirian on September 20, 2012 at 9:49 AM

When “leaners” are included, the race is tied with both Obama and Romney at 48%

-Rasmussen 9/20

Concern trolls trolling concern

The Count on September 20, 2012 at 9:47 AM

Wrong. Today it’s 50-47 Obama lead with leaners.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Mark1971 on September 20, 2012 at 9:49 AM

I think independent voters in the 47% are not thrilled by Romney’s argument that the only way they will become personally responsible is if they give up their Earned Income Credits, their interest payment and other deductions. Romney’s 47% speech framed a family of 5 making 50,000 a year as “moochers.” That’s just dumb politics.

libfreeordie on September 20, 2012 at 9:27 AM

EITCers are not independents. They are Democrat voters. When they vote.

John McCain got about 47% of the vote. Dear Liar won in a “landslide” with 53%. Both Mittens and The Won will get 47%. It’s the middle 6% you have to fight for. But go ahead and continue to listen to and swallow wholesale the dying fascist media’s story line.

rbj on September 20, 2012 at 9:50 AM

Either the pollster are playing us for fools, or the respondents are playing the pollsters for fools.

SouthernGent on September 20, 2012 at 9:45 AM

Or a majority of Americans are fools and are going to reelect Obama, which is likely what is going on here.

Mark1971 on September 20, 2012 at 9:50 AM

W H Y ?

KOOLAID2 on September 20, 2012 at 9:24 AM

People are afraid the gravy train will stop. So get back to work, people. You have a LOT of free stuff to pay for.

LilyBart on September 20, 2012 at 9:50 AM

There’s a Headline piece about that very issue. Apparently the Romney camp is being “cautious” with their ad spending, and as a result Obama is pummeling him on the airwaves. Could be they’re holding onto it now in order to overwhelm O in the last few weeks before the election, but who knows.

changer1701 on September 20, 2012 at 9:45 AM

I thought the article said a lot of that money they’ve raised is earmarked for other races. Either that means they’re confident they can compete with Obama with less funds and are ensuring they get a Republican majority in Congress or they’re hedging their bets against a Romney loss by trying to win as many of those Congressional races as possible. Or a little bit of both.

Let me just say that a GOP Congressional majority is worthless if Obama is reelected. He’ll continue to go around Congress with executive orders and by tapping into all the slush funds that are still in place from the various bailouts and stimulus bills. It would be a defacto dictatorship, much like it’s already been the last few years. And worst of all, an Obama victory guarantees that Obamacare becomes fully implemented.

Doughboy on September 20, 2012 at 9:51 AM

One odd thing though. I have kept hearing about how Romney has all this money and is going to go crazy with great ads.

I live here in NC and see Obama ads (all of them complete BS) all day long. I am seeing NO Romney ads. What the hell is Romney doing with all that money? Where are the ads?

mitchellvii on September 20, 2012 at 9:39 AM

Me too. I live in NC – just one random ad on China. That is all I see. I see ad after ad after ad for Obama

djl130 on September 20, 2012 at 9:51 AM

Meanwhile, back at the Drudge ranch, there is a doozy of a Drudgetaposition. http://themorningspew.com/2012/09/20/drudgetaposition-with-obamas-new-flag/

bloggless on September 20, 2012 at 9:51 AM

Do these people even poll people that have only cell phones?

albill on September 20, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Yes, Gallup has a FAQ page that explains it.

Donald Draper on September 20, 2012 at 9:52 AM

Obama now up 47-45 in. Up 50-47 with leaners. Up 47-46 in swing states, 49-47 with leaners. GAME OVER.

gumbyandpokey on September 20, 2012 at 9:24 AM

You idiot announced Romney finished two weeks ago when Obama was up and we told you wait one week and Romney would be up again… Well what we predicted was true… Now wait until next week and Romney would be up again… It has been a typical trend in Rassmusen over the last two months…

mnjg on September 20, 2012 at 9:52 AM

The Fox news Swing states polls were equally Odd, even though they called it likely voters, it looked a lot like registered voter polls.

Then, they qualify, that when they ask who is extremely motivate, the margin between the candidates is smaller. Arn’t THESE the likely voters then?

Fox polls are being done by two organizations, that usually sell their services for things other than politics.

Andersons of Boston has had these political clients Political and Public Affairs

2010 Committee to Protect the Affordable Housing Law (No on MA Question #2)
2010 Committee Against Repeal of the Alcohol Tax (No on MA Question #1)
2009 Yes on Question #1 for Springfield Committee
2008 Yes for Schools First Coalition (Yes on MO Question A)
2006 Yes on Wine in Food Stores (Yes on MA Question #1)
Fox News Channel
Suffolk Downs
Poker Players Alliance
Trust for Public Lands
ACLU of MA
Darden Restaurants
Transportation Investment Coalition



The Shaw group doesn’t tell anything about itself, it is supposedly in Texas and has experience in Texas local politics.
Not national.

Fleuries on September 20, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Mark1971 on September 20, 2012 at 9:49 AM

You are right. Maybe my browser hadn’t refreshed from yesterday.

The Count on September 20, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Me too. I live in NC – just one random ad on China. That is all I see. I see ad after ad after ad for Obama

I think Romney thinks he will win NC. is shifting money to other states.

gerrym51 on September 20, 2012 at 9:53 AM

If Romney thinks he can pummel Obama with TV ads in the last weeks, it better be that he has already pre-ordered the airtime… Else there won’t be any available.

Also note, I do not beleive the poll, I do not beleive any polls, really I do not even beleive the ones where people cast ballots. Lots of cheating going on.

astonerii on September 20, 2012 at 9:54 AM

I think independent voters in the 47% are not thrilled by Romney’s argument that the only way they will become personally responsible is if they give up their Earned Income Credits, their interest payment and other deductions. Romney’s 47% speech framed a family of 5 making 50,000 a year as “moochers.” That’s just dumb politics.

libfreeordie on September 20, 2012 at 9:27 AM

Many of the 47% in fact think that they are part of the 53% and agree with Romney that there are far too many takers… Many of them are Working class whites…

mnjg on September 20, 2012 at 9:54 AM

Democratic enthusiasm surges in swing states, nationally

Why yes … who wouldn’t be excited about the democrat’s platform which is pro-abortion, pro-illegal alien, anti-business, anti-religion, pro-Islamist, anti-military, pro-socialism, radical environmentalism, anti-semetic and high taxes?

I mean what’s not to like?

Nothing like a platform of selling your country down the tubes to get you riled up.

darwin on September 20, 2012 at 9:55 AM

GAME OVER.

gumbyandpokey on September 20, 2012 at 9:24 AM

This person is still posting?

Looks like Obama for America is paying an hourly rate. Is this the Chicago operation center or an at home thing?

Lots of ” depress the vote” trolls this go round.

rickyricardo on September 20, 2012 at 9:55 AM

Gallup: Democratic enthusiasm surges in swing states, nationally

Another day, another poll. I suppose someone cares. Because I don’t no matter which way they lean.

Look at comparative years, then look at registered voters and then look at the percentage that actually show up to vote.

I also don’t see Independents largely breaking for Mr. Obama. After the latest round of foreign policy debacles compounded by more bad economic news and a recovery that is nowhere in site it is extraordinarily evident we need a change at the White House.

Marcus Traianus on September 20, 2012 at 9:55 AM

I think independent voters in the 47% are not thrilled by Romney’s argument that the only way they will become personally responsible is if they give up their Earned Income Credits, their interest payment and other deductions. Romney’s 47% speech framed a family of 5 making 50,000 a year as “moochers.” That’s just dumb politics.

libfreeordie on September 20, 2012 at 9:27 AM

Nobody believes that they’re the 47% moochers he’s talking about though…it’s always the other guy. Yeah, libs were offended because he revealed the Left’s cradle to grave, grievance-mongering agenda better than they do, but that family of 5 that isn’t a family of brain-dead liberals likely won’t be.

changer1701 on September 20, 2012 at 9:56 AM

Again with the polls?

People, don’t be discouraged or swayed by the polls.

From the American Spectator, The Problem with Obama’s Polls

Do not let these polls fool you. In 1980 similar polls showed Jimmy Carter leading the Old Cowboy almost to the very end. Carter was ahead of Governor Ronald Reagan by 4 points in late September, by 8 points in October, and the Gallup polls had him ahead of Reagan by 6 points in last days of the election. Reagan won by 9 points, sweeping 44 states. In 1988 Governor Dukakis at one point led Vice President George H. W. Bush by 17 points. He lost by almost 8 points.

Just get out there and vote.

Charlemagne on September 20, 2012 at 9:56 AM

In case anyone missed the bomb Rasmussen dropped this morning The same Rasmussen everyone hung their hopes on

Obama now up 47-45 in. Up 50-47 with leaners. Up 47-46 in swing states, 49-47 with leaners. GAME OVER.

gumbyandpokey on September 20, 2012 at 9:24 AM

And when the Rasmussen poll turns back to Romeny by 1-2 will you post GAME ON! Come on…

crazywater on September 20, 2012 at 9:57 AM

I’m not surprised by this since we’re heading into October and lots of dead voters wake up to vote.

workingclass artist on September 20, 2012 at 9:57 AM

Barack Obama and his campaign team have settled for a base-turnout election rather than appeal to the moderates. So far, that strategy appears to have paid dividends.

Right. Secure your base first, then go from there. Meanwhile, The Stupid Party ™ does it bassackwards. Again.

ddrintn on September 20, 2012 at 9:57 AM

I think Romney thinks he will win NC. is shifting money to other states.

gerrym51 on September 20, 2012 at 9:53 AM

He’s gonna win NC. If that’s a competitive state this election cycle, then he can go ahead and concede. It was essentially a tie in 2008 with Obama winning by less than 14,000 votes. This time around the governor’s race is heavily favored for the Republican, gay marriage was rejected in a massive defeat earlier this year, and Obama compounded the matter by coming out in favor of it just a few days later. All signs point toward this state easily ending up in Romney’s column. He’d be wise to spend the money elsewhere.

Doughboy on September 20, 2012 at 9:58 AM

In case anyone missed the bomb Rasmussen dropped this morning… The same Rasmussen everyone hung their hopes on…

Obama now up 47-45 in. Up 50-47 with leaners. Up 47-46 in swing states, 49-47 with leaners. GAME OVER.

gumbyandpokey on September 20, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Is that all? After the sharia media anti-Romney deluge this week — ALL their news shows, the morning chat shows, late night TV — I thought it would be much, much worse. Damn, they are ALL IN on destroying Romney, and they STILL cannot get preezy to 50%, or outside the margin of error against Romney. It’ll even back out in a few days — and as you and the other O-bots well know, even means Romney wins.

Rational Thought on September 20, 2012 at 9:58 AM

Watching the polls is like watching ping pong. Up and down, all over the place. Why?

BECAUSE THEY WANT TO MAKE YOU FOLLOW THEM. We are puppets on their strings. Who pays attention to a boring campaign?

The polls will get serious 2 weeks before the election (to protect their “reputations” as pollsters). They know where and whom to call to get the results they want. Now polls are just causing ulcers so try to take them not so seriously.

FOOD PRICES
GAS PRICES
MID-EAST CHAOS
UNEMPLOYMENT

These are the REAL polls. It would, however, help if Mitt would harp a little more on FOOD PRICES, GAS PRICES, & MID-EAST CHAOS, though, wouldn’t it.

stenwin77 on September 20, 2012 at 9:58 AM

“One odd thing though. I have kept hearing about how Romney has all this money and is going to go crazy with great ads.

I live here in NC and see Obama ads (all of them complete BS) all day long. I am seeing NO Romney ads. What the hell is Romney doing with all that money? Where are the ads?”

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/20/us/politics/romney-campaign-cautious-with-ad-budget-even-in-key-states.html

gumbyandpokey on September 20, 2012 at 9:58 AM

The enthusiasm bump suggests that they can succeed in short spurts, but the deflation in Obama’s standing in the tracking poll suggests that Obama enthusiasm alone will be difficult to sustain in the long term.

What he needs are more speeches! Preferably with lots of hoopla and during prime time network TV.

moo on September 20, 2012 at 9:58 AM

gumbyandpokey on September 20, 2012 at 9:58 AM

Are you a Romney supporter?

changer1701 on September 20, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Beck just played the part of the Romney 47% tape this morning where Mitt said that we are no longer getting loans from China or Russia, but instead the FED is just printing money out of thin air.

This is the same Romney who called Bernanke and begged him not to do QE3.

Paul supporters and all naysayers: you want Romney to get serious about the FED, here it is!!

Why is NO ONE talking about this? I think when politicians speak off the cuff like Romney did on that tape it reveals their true intentions which is good news showing that Romney may gets it!

LevinFan on September 20, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Is that all? After the sharia media anti-Romney deluge this week — ALL their news shows, the morning chat shows, late night TV —

Rational Thought on September 20, 2012 at 9:58 AM

Oh, come on. After thre tragedy in the Middle East and the predictable Obama bungling and smoking guns galore, you ‘bots were predicting a Romney breakout. It’s never happened. It never will happen. Romney’s a bad candidate. Own it.

ddrintn on September 20, 2012 at 10:04 AM

For anyone hanging their hopes on Rasmussen.

I saw him on FoxNews the other day and this is what he actually said:

“Mitt Romney is a terrible candidate.”

Does that sound like the words of an unbiased Pollster to you?

mitchellvii on September 20, 2012 at 9:43 AM

Romney has run a fairly sedate and boring campaign… there is absolutely nothing that he has done to inspire people to vote for him – mostly it is the horror of having another four years of the chicago thug in the WH is what is driving his poll numbers.

But as you can see that is not at all enough – if you are ready to write 47% off then you should be cock sure that the remaining 53% will end up voting for you – the true impact of his dumb comments will only be known on election night but as a campaigner Romney was only digging himself a bigger hole than what already existed.

Consider this – you are among the 47% and you are NOT terribly enthusiastic about re-electing Obama because you know that he truly was a disaster – and then all of a sudden, you hear Romney essentially calling you a freeloader. You may now vote for Obama out of anger just to spite Romney – this is not exactly mature behavior but Romney just gave an opening that Obama WILL try to exploit.

Romney who has so far run a “safe” campaign is really trying to rally the base here and in the process may have unnecessarily rallied the Democrats – a sure shot sign of a candidate who is desperate to re-jig the race.

That is not good campaigning – i am not at all surprised by these numbers and at this point hope that Romney is not going to sink the chances of the GOP of re-gaining the House.

nagee76 on September 20, 2012 at 10:04 AM

“Oct 18, 1980

Gallup
Carter 46
Reagan 39

kevinkristy on September 20, 2012 at 9:42 AM”

http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/debunking-a-myth-reagan-was-leading-carter-long-before-that-final-october-debate/

gumbyandpokey on September 20, 2012 at 10:05 AM

Voter enthusiasm is not necessarily a good thing for Democrats. I think for them to be playing close attention they are just as likely to become disappointed with Obama as want to vote for him again. I think the more you watch Mr. Hope and Change run a Fear and Loathing campaign the more deflated you would become.

Think about the far left for example (those crazy Nader votes won the election for Bush) who don’t hear anything about Gitmo, environmentalist wacko bromides, Obamacare, etc that Obama can’t afford to bloviate about.

Think about the young person who doesn’t hear anymore lowering of the seas BS that made them want to be part of history. Now the young people would be voting to extend SS as is at their expense and are unemployed. Focusing on the elction doesn’t help here either.

Conan on September 20, 2012 at 10:06 AM

I think independent voters in the 47% are not thrilled by Romney’s argument that the only way they will become personally responsible is if they give up their Earned Income Credits, their interest payment and other deductions. Romney’s 47% speech framed a family of 5 making 50,000 a year as “moochers.” That’s just dumb politics.

libfreeordie on September 20, 2012 at 9:27 AM

Politics aside, these credits and subsidies are the reason the ladder of opportunity has missing rungs now. It’s harder to get ahead when you have to give up something to do so. Who is going to take a better job in the city with prospects of leaping up the ladder if it means your raise will be wiped out by lost EIC, lost subsidies for child care, loss of food stamps, and higher transportation costs.

MaggiePoo on September 20, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Many of the 47% in fact think that they are part of the 53% and agree with Romney that there are far too many takers… Many of them are Working class whites…

mnjg on September 20, 2012 at 9:54 AM

So you’re admitting that many working class whites who, based on your candidate, “will never take responsibility for themselves” are not only woefully irresponsible, “entitled” and dependent on government, but that they are so ignorant they don’t even KNOW that fact? And you also are suggesting that their ignorance of that fact is why they vote for the GOP? OK then. Way to make a strong case for your party and conservatism.

libfreeordie on September 20, 2012 at 10:06 AM

As anyone who watched the Democratic national convention’s Abortion-Palooza could easily determine, Barack Obama and his campaign team have settled for a base-turnout election rather than appeal to the moderates. So far, that strategy appears to have paid dividends

Seriously folks, do you really believe this? Are you seeing democrats excited about the elections? Look around you and forget the damn polls… Any fool would easily see that Obama 2008 mania is way, way, way down in 2012…

mnjg on September 20, 2012 at 10:09 AM

gumbyandpokey on September 20, 2012 at 10:05 AM

Again, are you a Romney supporter or not?

changer1701 on September 20, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Everyday you hear Romney at a fund raiser here and a fund raiser there.He needs to be out in the swing states campaigning every day.Today he is down by 2 in Rasmussen and when you consider leaners its Obama 50% Romney 47% also up by 1 in the swings states.

logman1 on September 20, 2012 at 10:10 AM

This is what Romney gets for listening to the Rove campaign strategy of walking on eggshells around the oh-so-delicate moderates. People want to vote for the one they perceive as a winner, and Romney’s soft approach conveys weakness and listlessness.

RedRedRice on September 20, 2012 at 10:10 AM

And MAY I JUST SAY, THIS IS THE DIRECT RESULT OF GOP CRITICISMS OF THEIR OWN CANDIDATE!!!

I have been FURIOUS with the so-called “conservative base” who miss no opportunity to stab their OWN CANDIDATE IN THE BACK AT EVERY TURN.

For months I have been ranting about it, and every day I get more outraged by Hot Air and the other “pundit” and “political” class who bicker and carp and criticize the best opportunity THEY HAVE HAD IN YEARS.

THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT ELECTION IN YOUR LIFETIME.

And, look at you. You make me SICK!

Bill Kristol, the pompous poobahs at Hot Air, Peggy Noonan, Brit Hume, and more. Nothing for your candidate. NOTHING.

When you lose this election, and it is the END of the Republican Party AND Conservatism for a generation, I hope you look back in horror at your participation in undermining this country, because that is precisely what all of you will have done. God help you.

mountainaires on September 20, 2012 at 10:11 AM

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