Swing state polling shows dead heat, too

posted at 1:21 pm on September 19, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Earlier today, I took a look at the Associated Press poll that shows the presidential race in a virtual tie nationally.  What about the all-important swing states?  Four different pollsters look at that question today, two of which are tracking polls, and all four say … pretty much the same thing.

First, Gallup reports that Obama holds a narrow lead in their swing-state polling, but within the margin of error, leading 48/46.  Furthermore, they report that despite all of the media hype over this gaffe and that gaffe, the race hasn’t changed at all since Romney became the presumptive nominee:

Registered voters in key 2012 election swing states remain closely divided in their presidential vote preferences, with 48% supporting President Barack Obama and 46% Mitt Romney. Other than a nine-point lead for Obama in March, the two candidates have been essentially tied in the swing states throughout the campaign.

Although their graph of these results looks like a flat line since May, Gallup includes this:

Most swing-state voters, 74%, say the recent political conventions did not have much or any influence on their vote choice. But the one in four swing-state voters who said the conventions did affect their vote — either a great deal or a fair amount — are much more likely to be supporting Obama now, by 56% to 41%, providing further evidence that the Democratic convention had a greater impact than the Republican convention.

Really?

It’s been nearly two weeks since the conventions.  Where’s that impact again?

All right, what does Rasmussen say?  They have Romney up, but only by one point:

In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 47% of the vote, and the president is supported by 46%. Three percent (3%) are not sure, and four percent (4%) are undecided.

In 2008, Obama won these states by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually identical to his national margin.

This is the fourth day in a row that Romney has posted a slight lead after the president’s convention bounce put him ahead for several days. The race in the swing states is now back to where it was at the beginning of the month.

In other words, the conventions didn’t have any lasting impact at all.

Next, we have USA Today, which partnered with Gallup and found a 2-point lead in the swing states — but this time for Romney:

The good news for Republican challenger Mitt Romney: After three rocky weeks, he remains within striking distance of President Obama in the battleground states that matter most. The bad news: His latest misstep could upend that.

A new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll of Swing States, completed Monday night, shows Romney lagging President Obama by only 2 percentage points, 48%-46%, well within the survey’s margin of error and a point closer than their contest last month. Nationwide, Obama’s bounce from the Democratic National Convention is dissipating: The president now leads across the country in the Gallup Poll by a single point, 47%-46%.

But the story transfixing cable newscasts and the Twitterverse on Tuesday wasn’t Romney’s recovery but his comments, captured in a secretly recorded video of a Florida fundraiser in May and posted online Monday by Mother Jones magazine. Before a wealthy audience, he dismissed (coincidentally) 47% of the electorate as people who don’t pay income taxes, lack personal responsibility, are dependent on the government and are firmly behind his opponent.

We’ll see, but that’s entirely speculative.  The poll doesn’t provide data that says “if Romney talks about dependency he’ll lose votes.”  The poll does find a “surprising number” of uncommitted voters, but they may well be turned off by Obama’s response to the death of an American ambassador in Libya, which is a bigger issue than Romney’s political analysis of his opposition.  Given that this data includes the dates of the last media freakout over Romney’s response to the Cairo embassy statement (not the Libya consulate disaster, as some media reported), the speculation of imminent disaster isn’t exactly convincing.

Lastly, we have the CBS/NYT poll of three key swing states that shows Obama leading in two — Virginia by four and Wisconsin by five — while being a one-point virtual tie in Colorado.  However, Tom Elia points out in an e-mail that the sample splits in the poll are rather absurdly tilted in the first two states.  Virginia’s sample is D+11 when the 2008 exit polling had it D+6 in a Democratic wave election.  Wisconsin’s split in this poll is D+8, when in 2008 it was also D+6, and just this year in the recall election it was R+1.  Adjusting for the sample skew, both of these states look like they’re at least dead heats.

What can we conclude?  Neither candidate is gaining traction at the moment.  We might also conclude that the undecided voters have just started taking a closer look at this race, and that we won’t see any real momentum until the debates start in two weeks.


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Comment pages: 1 2

No voter fraud, none whatsoever!

Schadenfreude on September 19, 2012 at 1:23 PM

But the Huffinglue Post says this is a “Hell Week” for Romney?

The Count on September 19, 2012 at 1:24 PM

Finally some ‘honesty’ in the polls!

Scrumpy on September 19, 2012 at 1:24 PM

As far as I am concerned, they are BOTH behind.

Jabberwock on September 19, 2012 at 1:25 PM

forgot the / tag

Scrumpy on September 19, 2012 at 1:25 PM

gumbyandpokey to show up any second now to tell us how far behind Romney is.

changer1701 on September 19, 2012 at 1:26 PM

But the Huffinglue Post says this is a “Hell Week” for Romney?

The Count on September 19, 2012 at 1:24 PM

Well it has been nothing but good news for Obama lately….aside from domestic and foreign policy matters.

Doughboy on September 19, 2012 at 1:27 PM

New MU law poll…the gold standard in WI…

Obama 54
Romney 40

Take WI off of the swing state list, lol.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 1:27 PM

Democrats gotta be peeing their pants on this news.

catmman on September 19, 2012 at 1:28 PM

If the Fifth Column Treasonous Media couldn’t like for Obama, kind of like Obama lying about, well everything, then they would be forced to either report nothing, or the truth, in other words, they would have nothing to report.

SWalker on September 19, 2012 at 1:28 PM

“Romney is doomed!”

-Hey media, the polls show differently.

“Ummm….Romney is doomed!”

Bishop on September 19, 2012 at 1:29 PM

http://www.jammiewf.com/2012/silent-majority-robopoll-records-silence-as-support-for-obama/

davidk on September 19, 2012 at 1:23 PM

People I have spoken to who received polling calls tell me they are hanging up. They’re not interested in speaking with anyone because they already know who they’re voting for – and it isn’t BO.

Cody1991 on September 19, 2012 at 1:29 PM

Next, we have USA Today, which partnered with Gallup and found a 2-point lead in the swing states — but this time for Romney:

A new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll of Swing States, completed Monday night, shows Romney lagging President Obama by only 2 percentage points, 48%-46%, well within the survey’s margin of error and a point closer than their contest last month

Wait a minute–is Romney leading or lagging in the USA Today/Gallup poll of swing states?

Steve Z on September 19, 2012 at 1:29 PM

gumbyandpokey to show up any second now to tell us how far behind Romney is.

changer1701 on September 19, 2012 at 1:26 PM

New MU

law poll…the gold standard in WI…

Obama 54
Romney 40

Take WI off of the swing state list, lol.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 1:27 PM

You ask, he delivers

Jabberwock on September 19, 2012 at 1:30 PM

gumbyandpokey to show up any second now to tell us how far behind Romney is.

changer1701 on September 19, 2012 at 1:26 PM

ROTFLMAO… Winner winner chicken dinner… One single minuet later…

SWalker on September 19, 2012 at 1:30 PM

http://www.jammiewf.com/2012/silent-majority-robopoll-records-silence-as-support-for-obama/

davidk on September 19, 2012 at 1:23 PM

Wow. That’s very interesting and telling.

tru2tx on September 19, 2012 at 1:30 PM

gumbyandpokey to show up any second now to tell us how far behind Romney is.

changer1701 on September 19, 2012 at 1:26 PM

New MU law poll…the gold standard in WI…

Obama 54
Romney 40

Take WI off of the swing state list, lol.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 1:27 PM

Wow, that shows how desperate the trolls really are. HAHAHAHAHAHA Oh man… I can’t stop laughing.

MobileVideoEngineer on September 19, 2012 at 1:30 PM

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 1:27 PM

Do you actually believe that any Conservative at HA would believe anything you post?

kingsjester on September 19, 2012 at 1:30 PM

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 1:27 PM

Do you actually believe that any Conservative at HA would believe anything you post?

kingsjester on September 19, 2012 at 1:30 PM

He don’t care, he gets paid by the post.

SWalker on September 19, 2012 at 1:32 PM

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 1:27 PM

Yeah, he went from a three point lead to a 14 point lead in three weeks…

Bullshinola.

catmman on September 19, 2012 at 1:32 PM

The Weakly Standard will not like to see the “arrogant” Mitt tied with their boy.

kevinkristy on September 19, 2012 at 1:32 PM

Virginia’s sample is D+11 when the 2008 exit polling had it D+6 in a Democratic wave election. Wisconsin’s split in this poll is D+8, when in 2008 it was also D+6, and just this year in the recall election it was R+1.

This is nothing but cheerleading for disspirited Dems, who in their little world, if they believe it, it has to come true.

iurockhead on September 19, 2012 at 1:32 PM

“I don’t remember what the number was precisely.” – Barack Obama answering David Letterman’s question about the size of the federal debt.

jazzmo on September 19, 2012 at 1:36 PM

No voter fraud, none whatsoever!

Schadenfreude on September 19, 2012 at 1:23 PM

…think of all the Al Franken type of elections over the years on a national level…and think of all the local elections that are won by 20 or 200 votes…and you wonder why one side is fighting voter ID?

KOOLAID2 on September 19, 2012 at 1:37 PM

New MU law poll…the gold standard in WI…

Obama 54
Romney 40

Take WI off of the swing state list, lol.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 1:27 PM

Marquette University?? Seriously?! As in the University in Milwaukee, the most liberal city next to Madison?!
And that is supposed to represent Wisconsin?!
Try again.

Sterling Holobyte on September 19, 2012 at 1:37 PM

You ask, he delivers

Jabberwock on September 19, 2012 at 1:30 PM

Almost as if….no, it can’t be….gumbo is waiting around for poll topics to appear just for the opportunity to blow smoke up everyone’s ass.

Bishop on September 19, 2012 at 1:38 PM

I feel pretty good about it. All of the polls oversample Dems.

Romney will do “surprisingly” well in the debates, again. Despite what the media will say. The undecideds will break for Romney.

There are probably some more things waiting to be leaked to the media from both camps though. Especially as the election gets closer and Obama and the media don’t see Obama pulling out to a big lead in the oversampled Dem polls.

Moesart on September 19, 2012 at 1:38 PM

Rasmussen Reports

Wisconsin three day moving average

8/15 – 8/15 500 LV 4.5 47 48 Romney +1

itsspideyman on September 19, 2012 at 1:38 PM

New FL poll…

Obama 65
Romney 30

-gumbyandpokey

changer1701 on September 19, 2012 at 1:38 PM

I know it shows how evil I am, but after Romney win’s on Nov. 6th, I sure am looking forward to the tsunami of gumbyandpokey and Marxist douche bag fellow traveler friends suicide video’s hitting Youtube…

SWalker on September 19, 2012 at 1:39 PM

Sorry to be Off Topic so soon. A spokesperson for the Obama administration just said there are no plans to release the blind sheik. That means they will be releasing the blind sheik. To quote Mr. Rogers, Can you say “Cave”? I knew you could.

birdwatcher on September 19, 2012 at 1:39 PM

Rainbow coloured Unicorns abound in the minds of dems…

It’s all a huge ‘fairytale’… they do not ‘see’ reality…

Hmmmmmmmmmmm, should I get me a pr of those rose coloured glasses?

I wanna see da unicorns too!!/

Scrumpy on September 19, 2012 at 1:39 PM

I made an Election Prediction model that is based on vote by “RACE” and based on the “Voters Intensity Factor”. In this model if I assume that 3% of Obama 2008 voters stay home in 2012 then for Romney to win the following battleground states the percentage of “White Voters” who voted for Obama in 2008 who need to switch and vote for Romney in 2012 are as follow:

Florida (5% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters staying home)
Ohio (7% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters staying home)
Virginia (8% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters staying home)
North Carolina (0% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters staying home)
Colorado (10% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters staying home)
Iowa (7% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters staying home)
New Hampshire (10% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters staying home)
Wisconsin ( 14% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters staying home)
Minnesota (12% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters staying home)
Nevada ( 17% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters staying home)
Michigan (18% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters staying home)
Pennsylvania (19% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters staying home)

mnjg on September 19, 2012 at 1:40 PM

Sterling Holobyte on September 19, 2012 at 1:37 PM

It’s Marquette University.

But for comparison’s sake, when MU showed Governor Walker beating the stuffing out of Barrett in the recall election, the lefties were crying foul; see KOS for the relevant whiny bits.

Bishop on September 19, 2012 at 1:40 PM

No voter fraud, none whatsoever!

Schadenfreude on September 19, 2012 at 1:23 PM

I’ve stated all along that the legacy media are laying down the meme that Barackabama is unbeatable, so if/when Romney wins they and Barackabama can challenge the results in court (and let the riots begin!)

SouthernGent on September 19, 2012 at 1:41 PM

New Texas G & P poll:

Obama: 110%
Romney: -10%

jazzmo on September 19, 2012 at 1:41 PM

gumbyandpokey to show up any second now to tell us how far behind Romney is.

changer1701 on September 19, 2012 at 1:26 PM

New MU law poll…the gold standard in WI…

Obama 54
Romney 40

Take WI off of the swing state list, lol.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 1:27 PM

…it’s not your stopwatch!…gutmeandpokeme takes a while to drool!

KOOLAID2 on September 19, 2012 at 1:42 PM

Almost as if….no, it can’t be….gumbo is waiting around for poll topics to appear just for the opportunity to blow smoke up everyone’s ass.

Bishop on September 19, 2012 at 1:38 PM

He was promising a “BLOCKBUSTER” poll from NBC last night.
Any idea how that turned out. I didn’t hear any bad news.
Not really paying too much attention

Jabberwock on September 19, 2012 at 1:42 PM

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight

The. Polls. Have. Stopped. Making. Any. Sense.

…maybe for liberal hacks who are trying to help Obama get re elected.

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight

.@jedlewison: National polls are fine. Consistent with an Obama lead of ~3 points, plus random variance. It’s states where things get weird.

…yeah it’s weird that Romney isn’t down 10 pts with the full court assault the media has been putting on him.

rndmusrnm on September 19, 2012 at 1:43 PM

It’s Marquette University.

But for comparison’s sake, when MU showed Governor Walker beating the stuffing out of Barrett in the recall election, the lefties were crying foul; see KOS for the relevant whiny bits.

Bishop on September 19, 2012 at 1:40 PM

It’s also of a little over 700 registered voters, which is basically useless at this point.

changer1701 on September 19, 2012 at 1:43 PM

“Rasmussen Reports

Wisconsin three day moving average

8/15 – 8/15 500 LV 4.5 47 48 Romney +1

itsspideyman on September 19, 2012 at 1:38 PM”

A poll over a month old…good grief.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 1:44 PM

New MU law poll…the gold standard in WI…

Obama 54
Romney 40

Take WI off of the swing state list, lol.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 1:27 PM

WOW a poll by Milwakee University…. No bias there what so ever… (Super extreme sarcasm)… I am sure they polled 80% from the liberal areas…

mnjg on September 19, 2012 at 1:44 PM

Brace yourselves, folks…

New Utah poll-

Obama 80
Romney 20

A 57 state landslide, LOL

-gumbyandpokey

changer1701 on September 19, 2012 at 1:45 PM

If Obama is up big in Wisconsin, why is he going there this weekend? His FIRST campaign trip there.

rockmom on September 19, 2012 at 1:46 PM

“It’s Marquette University.

But for comparison’s sake, when MU showed Governor Walker beating the stuffing out of Barrett in the recall election, the lefties were crying foul; see KOS for the relevant whiny bits.”

Yes, it’s Marquette University, and they predicted the recall almost exactly. They’re the best pollster of WIsconsin, like it or not. And the libs came up with the same excuses when Walker was predicted to clobber Barrett.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 1:46 PM

New MU law poll…the gold standard in WI…

Obama 54
Romney 40

Take WI off of the swing state list, lol.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 1:27 PM

That would be the same poll that has Baldwin beating Thompson by 9? Yeah, that’s not gonna happen.

weaselyone on September 19, 2012 at 1:47 PM

Lastly, we have the CBS/NYT poll of three key swing states that shows Obama leading in two — Virginia by four and Wisconsin by five — while being a one-point virtual tie in Colorado. However, Tom Elia points out in an e-mail that the sample splits in the poll are rather absurdly tilted in the first two states. Virginia’s sample is D+11 when the 2008 exit polling had it D+6 in a Democratic wave election. Wisconsin’s split in this poll is D+8, when in 2008 it was also D+6, and just this year in the recall election it was R+1.

In checking the sample skew of the CBS/NYT polls, it’s interesting to compare their Presidential results with their polls of the Senate races, and compare with other polls.

In Wisconsin, CBS/NYT has Obama leading Romney 51-45, and the Senate race tied at 47-47, meaning Romney is running 6 points behind Tommy Thompson (R) in Wisconsin. However, a recent Rasmussen poll of the Wisconsin Senate race showed Thompson leading Baldwin(D) 54-43. If CBS/NYT used Rasmussen’s sample, and Romney is running 6 points behind Thompson, Romney would be leading in WI by 5 points.

In Virginia, CBS/NYT has Obama leading Romney 50-46, and in the Senate race, Kaine(D) leads Allen(R) by 51-44, meaning that Romney is running 3 points ahead of Allen according to CBS/NYT. However, a recent Rasmussen poll of the VA Senate race showed Kaine leading by only 2 points (47-45), so if Romney runs 3 points ahead of Allen, he leads Obama by 1 point in VA.

It’s probably more difficult to predict partisan turnout in state elections than in national elections, but are some of the LSM polling outfits trying to use 2008 turnout models to predict 2012 results?

Obama won Wisconsin by over 10 points in 2008, but something galvanized Republicans to elect Scott Walker by 6 points in 2010, and re-elect him by 7 points in June 2012. Those energized Republicans will be out in force in November to support native-son Paul Ryan for VP.

Which electorate will turn out in Virginia–the one which elected Obama by 5 points in 2008, or the one which elected Bob McDonnell(R) by 18 points in 2009?

Steve Z on September 19, 2012 at 1:48 PM

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 1:46 PM

It’s also of registered voters, which makes it useless.

Now go play with Prickle and Goo.

changer1701 on September 19, 2012 at 1:48 PM

Turnout.

PappyD61 on September 19, 2012 at 1:49 PM

Why are we still doing polls? All I have been hearing for so long from liberals is that Obama already won the election.

Am I missing something, or could it possibly be that liberals are wrong?

Liam on September 19, 2012 at 1:50 PM

Wait, Mitt Rommonster, half-robot, half-cadaver (death by gaffe they say) is roughly neck in neck with Light Bringer?

What will he do to the ocean tides and our planet’s health?

LetsBfrank on September 19, 2012 at 1:51 PM

“Rasmussen Reports

Wisconsin three day moving average

8/15 – 8/15 500 LV 4.5 47 48 Romney +1

itsspideyman on September 19, 2012 at 1:38 PM”

A poll over a month old…good grief.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 1:44 PM

Yeah cuz the last couple weeks have been so good for Obama since the convention wrapped up.

Doughboy on September 19, 2012 at 1:52 PM

“It’s Marquette University.

But for comparison’s sake, when MU showed Governor Walker beating the stuffing out of Barrett in the recall election, the lefties were crying foul; see KOS for the relevant whiny bits.”

Yes, it’s Marquette University, and they predicted the recall almost exactly. They’re the best pollster of WIsconsin, like it or not. And the libs came up with the same excuses when Walker was predicted to clobber Barrett.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 1:46 PM

Only an idiot believes that Obama is winning Wisconsin by 14 points… This poll is insanely biased and I bet you that 80% of the respondents came from heavy liberals areas…

mnjg on September 19, 2012 at 1:52 PM

If you can judge this election by how desperate the Liberal Trolls around here are, then Romney’s got this thing wrapped up.

kingsjester on September 19, 2012 at 1:52 PM

Why are we still doing polls? All I have been hearing for so long from liberals is that Obama already won the election.

Am I missing something, or could it possibly be that liberals are wrong?

Liam on September 19, 2012 at 1:50 PM

Kind of like Obama’s comments on “you didn’t build that” were taken out of context and were actually good comments. That is why you saw DNC ads with that speech. Wait the Obama campaign didn’t run ads of that speech? I wonder why not, since it was so good.

weaselyone on September 19, 2012 at 1:53 PM

New MU law poll…the gold standard in WI…

Obama 54
Romney 40

Take WI off of the swing state list, lol.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 1:27 PM

Marquette University poll is hardly a gold standard except for mindless drool like gumbypoked. It is a RV poll and it admitted that

The September poll makeup is two points more Democratic and three points less Republican than average. But MU officials say that is still within the margin of error.

Both the

bayview on September 19, 2012 at 1:53 PM

On this day in 2004, Bush 43 was ahead by 6.8% in the RCP average of polls. He went on to win the election by 2.4%, a shift of 4.4% to Kerry in the last weeks.

Today, Obumbles is only ahead by 2.7% in the RCP average, and unemployment, gas prices and foreign policy developments are all working against him. With a similar shift, he loses the election by 1.7%. With the facts on the ground as they are, he probably loses by more.

HTL on September 19, 2012 at 1:54 PM

Take WI off of the swing state list, lol.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 1:27 PM

Perhaps you haven’t heard that people who feel the need to write “lol” at the end of their statements, are proven to possess a 50% lower I.Q..

Hurry up now, your bus is waiting outside.

BettyRuth on September 19, 2012 at 1:54 PM

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 1:27 PM

Marquette University?? Seriously?! As in the University in Milwaukee, the most liberal city next to Madison?!
And that is supposed to represent Wisconsin?!
Try again.

Sterling Holobyte on September 19, 2012 at 1:37 PM

Hey, ya gotta go with the material you have…

BTW that “pole” also shows that some young WI residents not only support O’bamna, but they also support Rethuglican WI Governor Scott Walker.

Heartache!

Del Dolemonte on September 19, 2012 at 1:54 PM

It’s Marquette University.

But for comparison’s sake, when MU showed Governor Walker beating the stuffing out of Barrett in the recall election, the lefties were crying foul; see KOS for the relevant whiny bits.

Bishop on September 19, 2012 at 1:40 PM

Do you really believe that Obama is up 14 points in Wisconsin? Seriously…

mnjg on September 19, 2012 at 1:54 PM

here is a linky to another abysmal poll…

http://news.yahoo.com/esquire-yahoo-news-poll-americans-little-common-with-romney.html

Talk amongst yourselves…

Scrumpy on September 19, 2012 at 1:55 PM

New Texas poll.

Sadler 95
Cruz 5

-gumbyandpokey

annoyinglittletwerp on September 19, 2012 at 1:55 PM

Allahpundit hardest hit.

Minnfidel on September 19, 2012 at 1:57 PM

On Drudge:

Pres. Obama admits on Letterman that he doesn’t know amount of US debt.

The he goes to great lengths to discuss how he can reduce the deficit by trimming government programs and making them more efficient. But forgets to mention that he has been president for almost 4 years, so why hasn’t he already done that?

LASue on September 19, 2012 at 1:57 PM

Most swing-state voters, 74%, say the recent political conventions did not have much or any influence on their vote choice. But the one in four swing-state voters who said the conventions did affect their vote — either a great deal or a fair amount — are much more likely to be supporting Obama now, by 56% to 41%, providing further evidence that the Democratic convention had a greater impact than the Republican convention.

So if 26% of the swing-state voters who said the convention affected their vote favor Obama by a net 15%, that should create a net swing toward Obama of 0.26 x 0.15 = 0.039 = 3.9%.

Except that Romney was 3 points behind before the conventions and 2 points behind after the conventions, or a net swing toward Romney of 1 point. Methinks there were lots of voters favorably impressed by the RNC but didn’t admit it to Gallup.

Steve Z on September 19, 2012 at 1:57 PM

New MU law poll…the gold standard in WI…

Obama 54
Romney 40

Take WI off of the swing state list, lol.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 1:27 PM

As expected, the poll makes no mention of the partisan distribution, which likely means D+15. All one needs to achieve this “result” is to poll during work time, when most Republicans are at work.

Archivarix on September 19, 2012 at 1:58 PM

annoyinglittletwerp on September 19, 2012 at 1:55 PM

Hehe. They’ve REALLY turned against the GOP, haven’t they?

changer1701 on September 19, 2012 at 1:59 PM

I’m waiting for the poll taken on November 6 where people are left alone for a few moments with just their thoughts, no pollsters, no idiot media reports, no hectoring from various self-interest groups.

Should be interesting.

kim roy on September 19, 2012 at 1:59 PM

Devastating. Obama has no clue about the amount of the national debt. You Tube video of last night’s Letterman appearance. It’s around the 6:40 mark. However, the video , whose address is pasted below, is no longer available. (Perhaps removed?)

“http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=htUp1S4DV54&feature=player_embedded”

Basilsbest on September 19, 2012 at 2:01 PM

New MU law poll…the gold standard in WI…

Obama 54
Romney 40

Take WI off of the swing state list, lol.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 1:27 PM

Internals? Or we just supposed to take your word for it (gigglesnort).

Has anyone come across a D+20 yet? They’ve been stuck at D+19.

kim roy on September 19, 2012 at 2:02 PM

Bishop on September 19, 2012 at 1:40 PM

Do you really believe that Obama is up 14 points in Wisconsin? Seriously…

mnjg on September 19, 2012 at 1:54 PM

Well, O did beat McCain by 14 in WI in 2008.

But O was an unknown then, and now folks have seen what a 4 year utter disaster O is.

And McCain isn’t running against O this time out.

Del Dolemonte on September 19, 2012 at 2:03 PM

Virginia’s sample is D+11 when the 2008 exit polling had it D+6 in a Democratic wave election.

Fairfax, VA voter — I call BS. There’s no way it’s D+6 this time.

NoVAHockey on September 19, 2012 at 2:04 PM

Devastating. Obama has no clue about the amount of the national debt.

Basilsbest on September 19, 2012 at 2:01 PM

There needs to be ads about this. This is incompetence.

jazzmo on September 19, 2012 at 2:06 PM

Basilsbest on September 19, 2012 at 2:01 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6D55384wiUg&feature=youtu.be
This link provided by Drudge is working fine.

bayview on September 19, 2012 at 2:06 PM

Do you really believe that Obama is up 14 points in Wisconsin? Seriously…

mnjg on September 19, 2012 at 1:54 PM

Did I say that? Seriously…

Bishop on September 19, 2012 at 2:07 PM

here is a linky to another abysmal poll…

http://news.yahoo.com/esquire-yahoo-news-poll-americans-little-common-with-romney.html

Talk amongst yourselves…

Scrumpy on September 19, 2012 at 1:55 PM

No disclosure of sampling breakdown in that “pole”. Not even a link to the crosstabs.

And it has a MOE of 4%.

I did find it interesting that the final question showed that O got no bounce from killing bin Laden.

Del Dolemonte on September 19, 2012 at 2:07 PM

Can we whip up a class-action lawsuit that would simultaneously cover rating agencies and polls? There should be something on the books for intentional public misinformation.

Archivarix on September 19, 2012 at 2:08 PM

Scrumpy and Twerp are the best snarkers so far.

They got gumby all bent out of shape.

SparkPlug on September 19, 2012 at 2:11 PM

http://www.jammiewf.com/2012/silent-majority-robopoll-records-silence-as-support-for-obama/

davidk on September 19, 2012 at 1:23 PM

Wow. That’s very interesting and telling.

tru2tx on September 19, 2012 at 1:30 PM

That poll is sponsored by American Future Fund which is John Boehner’s PAC. I have been called a few times on that one and had weird things happen such as choosing Romney and having the response come back as Obama. Boehner needs to get that poll straightened out.

I don’t think the screwiness of Boehner’s poll is really affecting anything we see in public polls. I think it is pretty clear Obama got a bump that has largely disappeared. The swing from the national bump is showing in state polling and that too shall disappear. There is no way both could be true that nationally it is tight as a tick yet have VA and other swings being blown open. The swings follow the national polling so we can assume they are going to swing back to tight races.

msmveritas on September 19, 2012 at 2:14 PM

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight

.@jedlewison: National polls are fine. Consistent with an Obama lead of ~3 points, plus random variance. It’s states where things get weird.

…yeah it’s weird that Romney isn’t down 10 pts with the full court assault the media has been putting on him.

rndmusrnm on September 19, 2012 at 1:43 PM

The problem these morons have is that the national poll doesn’t mean squat, it’s the state polls that are important.

He can get the votes of the entire states of New York, California, Illinois, and Massachusetts and it still won’t help him if he loses close ones in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, et all.

teke184 on September 19, 2012 at 2:15 PM

Romney has been creeping back up in the polls. I am curious to see what his numbers are on friday, when the full effect of the 47 percent comments are registered.

Jack_Burton on September 19, 2012 at 2:18 PM

Well, O did beat McCain by 14 in WI in 2008.

But O was an unknown then, and now folks have seen what a 4 year utter disaster O is.

And McCain isn’t running against O this time out.

Del Dolemonte on September 19, 2012 at 2:03 PM

And the Republicans have been winning repeatedly in the state since 2010, as the Dims made the state Ground Zero on collective bargaining by teachers.

The craven cowardice by the Dims there has probably gotten a lot of people who would normally be “undecided” to break to the right.

teke184 on September 19, 2012 at 2:18 PM

Can we whip up a class-action lawsuit that would simultaneously cover rating agencies and polls? There should be something on the books for intentional public misinformation.

Archivarix on September 19, 2012 at 2:08 PM

You just may have something there. Would “Mail Order fraud” fit given Hussein is using these polls as his plea for donations? You know, money changing hands based on an EMAIL?

riddick on September 19, 2012 at 2:21 PM

So Walker turned a D+6 to an R+1 in a very short time, despite record Dem enthusiasm, did he. Hmmmm, how on earth did he accomplish that little miracle? Oh yeah, he stood up to entrenched Democrat public-trough interests and on behalf of taxpayers all over the state.

You would think the Romney campaign would want to emulate Walker, and start taking some common sense stands on issues important to middle class America.

MTF on September 19, 2012 at 2:23 PM

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight

.@jedlewison: National polls are fine. Consistent with an Obama lead of ~3 points, plus random variance. It’s states where things get weird.

The national polls are obviously not fine, and Nate Silver is not really trust worthy as far as commenting on polls. But I agree, the state polls are even worse than the national polls are.

eyedoc on September 19, 2012 at 2:32 PM

New poll:
Will gumbypoked finally get his GED?

No 87
“Only if he tries in Chicago” 11
Yes 2

bayview on September 19, 2012 at 2:32 PM

Take WI off of the swing state list, lol.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 1:27 PM

Why are you “LOL”ing if you are a purported Romney supporter?

Because you are a liar?

Right Mover on September 19, 2012 at 2:35 PM

And in one single stroke the political science department at Marquette University becomes a national joke.

swamp_yankee on September 19, 2012 at 2:39 PM

Gumby after Florida, Ohio, Virginia and NH are called for President Romney on Election Day:

“First poll of the 2016 election:

Clinton 65
Romney 30

Romney is done. He is not even campaigning. And why is he not spending money? Clinton won. Lol.”

milcus on September 19, 2012 at 2:39 PM


You would think the Romney campaign would want to emulate Walker, and start taking some common sense stands on issues important to middle class America.

Yes. You would think. But this is Team Romney we’re talking about. And they’re getting a little glum out there: a mood of gloom afflicts the Romney campaign. Poor Romney could hardly eat the veggie burrito served to him on his plane. And he’s taken to eating alone in his hotel room because the hotel staff keeps snickering at him.

casuist on September 19, 2012 at 2:40 PM

Why are you “LOL”ing if you are a purported Romney supporter?

Because you are a liar?

Right Mover on September 19, 2012 at 2:35 PM

There is no way that troll is a Romney supporter. Where did you even get that idea?

milcus on September 19, 2012 at 2:40 PM


Romney is done. He is not even campaigning. And why is he not spending money? Clinton won. Lol.”

Yeah. Just why isn’t Romney campaigning? Did he think he could just phone in a campaign with exclusive fund-raisers and super-dull anodyne commercials that he isn’t broadcasting until it’s far too late? Get out there Dullard Willard! At least pretend like your head is in the game!

casuist on September 19, 2012 at 2:42 PM

New MU law poll…the gold standard in WI…

Gumbyandpokey, the gold standard of vacuous seminar trolls.

Right Mover on September 19, 2012 at 2:42 PM

I don’t think anyone in their heart of hearts ever thought Romney could win. But I also don’t think any of us would have ever predicted that Rommey would curl up into a fetal position and lose complete control of his bladder at the first burst of automatic fire. Didn’t he save the Olympics or something a million years ago? Pull it together, Romney!

casuist on September 19, 2012 at 2:46 PM

And in one single stroke the political science department at Marquette University becomes a national joke.

swamp_yankee on September 19, 2012 at 2:39 PM

While that may well be true, the R collapse is not entirely due to the with-leaners 51-40 advantage the ‘Rats have. Adjusting the results to either of the August with-leaners split (46% D-45% R in early-August, 44% D-43% R in late August) still gives Baldwin a 1-point lead, while Obama would have a 7-8 point lead (bigger with the late-August split).

Baldwin has been on the air since the primary painting Thompson as an out-of-touch Washington insider, and Obama has started ads. Neither Thompson nor Romney have done jack on air.

Steve Eggleston on September 19, 2012 at 2:57 PM

There is no way that troll is a Romney supporter. Where did you even get that idea?

milcus on September 19, 2012 at 2:40 PM

I’m calling him out on the lie he told himself in a thread early last week, when he lamented that he was not an Obama supporter, but was just making impartial observations on the state of the race.

Seriously. I guess he felt that introducing this new “twist” to his posts, that he was actually NOT an Obama supporter, would add to the sense of gloom and despair he was dispatched to foment here at Hot Air. Instead, it clinched his lack of credibility, since he has clearly dropped that facade this week.

Right Mover on September 19, 2012 at 3:00 PM

You would think the Romney campaign would want to emulate Walker, and start taking some common sense stands on issues important to middle class America.

MTF on September 19, 2012 at 2:23 PM

I did my part. I wrote to Gov. Walker congratulating him on his recall win, and suggested maybe he could give some pointers to Romney. :)

Sterling Holobyte on September 19, 2012 at 3:00 PM

Isn’t it amazing how these polling threads draw out the trolls?
I’ts like they have an agenda or something ;)

JusDreamin on September 19, 2012 at 3:02 PM

OT: Someone needs to photoshop this asap

wargamer6 on September 19, 2012 at 3:07 PM

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