AP poll shows Obama up only by 1, 47/46

posted at 10:01 am on September 19, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

The bounce has officially dissipated.  A new AP/GfK national poll of likely voters shows Barack Obama and Mitt Romney in a virtual tie, with Obama having a 1-point edge at 47/46.  The internals, noted by the Washington Post, show a demographic divide that should surprise no one paying attention to the race, but one that obviously balances out and doesn’t help the incumbent:

President Barack Obama and GOP challenger Mitt Romney stand about even among likely voters, with 47 percent backing Obama and 46 percent Romney. But there are sharp demographic divides driving each candidate’s support.

Women broadly back the president (55 percent for Obama vs. 39 percent for Romney) while men favor the GOP ticket (53 percent for Romney to 40 percent for Obama). The gender gap tightens some in the suburbs, where women tilt Obama by a narrower 51 percent to 45 percent margin, while suburban men favor Romney, 54 percent to 40 percent.

White voters without college degrees favor Romney by more than 30 points over Obama (63 percent back Romney compared with 30 percent behind Obama), a steeper split than the 18-point margin John McCain held over Obama among the group in 2008. White voters with college degrees are about evenly split (50 percent Obama to 48 percent Romney), about on par with 2008.

Younger voters are less apt to be likely voters than their elder counterparts, hinting at the turnout battle to come, but voters under age 45 remain solidly in Obama’s camp, 54 percent to 41 percent. Senior citizens, on the other hand, lean Romney, 52 percent to 41 percent for Obama.

Let’s compare these demographics to 2008.  Obama won women by 13 in his last election but also edged McCain by one among men for a total gender-gap advantage of +14.  The AP/GfK poll has him at a +3.  The age demographics don’t exactly match up with 2008′s exit polls, but Obama won the 18-29YO vote by 34 points (66/32) and 30-44YOs by six, 52/46.  Obama has lost ground here, and that’s before we talk about turnout and enthusiasm.  Also, Obama only lost seniors by eight in 2008, and he’s performing slightly worse in 2012, down 11.

What about the sample?  It looks surprisingly fair, at least among likely voters.  The D/R/I without leaners is 31/30/30 (with 8% refusing to identify), an undersampling of both Democrats and Republicans.  That was a big improvement from the 31/22/40 from the overall sample, which produced a ridiculous 52/37 Obama lead among all adults.

The rest of the likely-voter results are mixed news for an incumbent.  The right/wrong direction is upside down, 41/52, but not as bad as the LV result just before the 2010 midterms, 39/59.  Obama does have a positive job-approval rating at 52/47, which is an outlier even from Gallup’s registered-voter tracking polls, and suggests that Obama will underperform his approval rating among likely voters.  On the economy, Obama gets a 47/52, a 35/56 on gas prices.  However, Obama ends up leading on most of the other issues, albeit narrowly at times.

The bottom line from this poll is that we have an incumbent who can’t get to 50% even in a sample where likely voters approve of his job performance, and where demographic support has significantly eroded from 2008.  That’s not good news for Team Obama, and the events of last week will likely push this even lower.


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What about them?

Obama leads Virginia by 4 with a D+9 sample.
Obama leads Colorado by 1 with an R+1 sample.
Obama leads Wisconsin by 6 with a D+7 sample.

Romney is winning Independents in all 3 polls.

BTW, Romney leads by 3% in new NH poll released today – Rasmussen

sentinelrules on September 19, 2012 at 10:19 AM

CBS/NYT usually uses a Democrat-skewed sample.

It’s interesting to compare the CBS/NYT polls to Rasmussen polls in the Senate races. In VA, CBS/NYT has Kaine(D) leading Allen(R) 51-44, while Rasmussen has Kaine leading 47-45. If Romney is doing 3 points better than Allen in Virginia (which CBS/NYT shows), he may actually be leading in VA according to a realistic sample.

In Wisconsin, CBS/NYT shows Obama leading Romney 51-45, but the Senate race tied at Thompson(R) 47 Baldwin(D) 47. The latest Wisconsin Senate poll from Rasmussen showed Thompson leading 54-43. If Romney is running 6 points behind Thompson per CBS/NYT, he may be leading Wisconsin according to a realistic sample.

As for Colorado, the latest Rasmussen poll there showed Romney leading 47-45.

Steve Z on September 19, 2012 at 10:54 AM

Oh yay! Another poll to ignore.

Basic what do you consider yourself results:
D – 31
I – 29
R – 22
None – 17 (let’s just call em what they are “Commies”)

More intrusive “what do you call yourself or lean towards” results:
D-50
R-37
I-9

What a disgrace of a poll.

exsanguine on September 19, 2012 at 10:56 AM

Question: My home page is yahoo and they have become the MSNBC of the net with all pro Obama coverage and all negative Romney. Where can I go for a tad balanced coverage of news with a search engine?

Bensonofben on September 19, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Del,

This is for you and anyone else who thinks that Reagan was behind at this time in 08. There are very few, if any, comebacks after this point in a Presidential race.

http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/debunking-a-myth-reagan-was-leading-carter-long-before-that-final-october-debate/

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 10:28 AM

I looked at the chart.. and NO, it doesn’t disprove anything,.. during the time in question, there were two polls on your own chart which show Carter leading, the aggregate of all polls may have put Reagan ahead.. but Which ones?

I was 21 then.. and the MSM was utterly desperate then,.. as now to depress Reagan’s numbers, so if they had even a single poll showing Carter ahead..

that would have been the ONLY poll the news would lead with..

Were you even alive during that campaign?

CBS ABC and NBC were all positive of a Carter victory, it was all they talked about.. and on election night, CBS was practically on a suicide watch, if you read Peggy Noonan’s book about that night… when she worked for CBS..

Reagan’s election was a SHOCK to the democrats.. and national media, almost as bad as the 94 elections.. if there were many polls showing a certain Reagan victory, they sure as Hell never aired them..

But don’t let the memories of folks who lived through those days stop you from trying to rewrite history.

Reagan was NOT shown to be leading by the national media till just days ahead of the election, and even then, they still played it as an anomaly..

mark81150 on September 19, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Voter enthusiasm = turnout. The right will dominate at the polls.

Romney will win by a comfortable margin.

Many that voted for Odumbo won’t even admit it any longer.. Obama is a failure and they know it..
His support is way soft..

RockyJ. on September 19, 2012 at 11:00 AM

Enough.

Here’s what the polls will look like up to 30 days before the election…this is reguardless if the ME is awash in blood, Europe has reverted to the Dark Ages and the Red Sox will FINALLY make the playoffs…really!

Obama 49% Romney 47%

2 weeks away from the election, Obama will “surge” to 51%, Romney will “hold Steady” at 45-47%.

Day after election? As long as the Indy crowd doesn’t muck up the works, or we have a surprise 3rd party loser insert themselves in for publicity and/or campaign cash…Romney 50%, Obama 48%.

…and if Romney wins by anything less that 50.5% (Obama’s 2008 margin) the MSM will say that he ‘eked’ out a win in spite of the public’s ignorance.

If he wins by a greater margin than 2008 Obama’s win, they’ll say he “mobilized” the religious Conservatives and the “White” vote to remove “Our nations first Progressive Sociali…errr, Bi-Racial…ummm…BLACK (YEAH!) President).

BlaxPac on September 19, 2012 at 11:01 AM

A good rule of thumb is, do not trust amy media-sponsored poll or PPP. Gallup, Rasmussen, Quinnipiac, Mason-Dixon (do they even poll anymore?) have proven to have less bias in their samples and in the questions.

rockmom on September 19, 2012 at 11:02 AM

I can’t wait to hear the losers …

“How did Romney win, I don’t know anyone that voted for him”…

liberals are idiots..

RockyJ. on September 19, 2012 at 11:02 AM

I can’t wait to hear the losers …

“How did Romney win, I don’t know anyone that voted for him”…

liberals are idiots..

RockyJ. on September 19, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Andrea Mitchell and the Lesbo in Sneakers are gonna be horrified

Slade73 on September 19, 2012 at 11:04 AM

Question: My home page is yahoo and they have become the MSNBC of the net with all pro Obama coverage and all negative Romney. Where can I go for a tad balanced coverage of news with a search engine?

Bensonofben on September 19, 2012 at 10:58 AM

I’ve all but completed the homepage switch on all my computers and tablets to Google. Granted, they’re a bunch of Dems over there too, but at least you can avoid headlines and just use their search engine. I swear Yahoo’s gone even further into the tank than usual after the dude was fired a couple weeks ago for his open mic remarks.

Doughboy on September 19, 2012 at 11:05 AM

After going to extraordinary lengths to choose our next President for us why isn’t Obama way ahead?

Speakup on September 19, 2012 at 11:06 AM

mark81150 on September 19, 2012 at 10:58 AM

]
Do you remember the old Rally’s burger commercials? I do, cha-ching!

earlgrey133 on September 19, 2012 at 11:07 AM

If AP is showing Obama up by 1 then Romney is probably up by 4.

rplat on September 19, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Oh yay! Another poll to ignore.

Basic what do you consider yourself results:
D – 31
I – 29
R – 22
None – 17 (let’s just call em what they are “Commies”)

More intrusive “what do you call yourself or lean towards” results:
D-50
R-37
I-9

What a disgrace of a poll.

exsanguine on September 19, 2012 at 10:56 AM

Didn’t recently an article state that democrat party affiliation has dropped to below republican for the first time since the 20′s? If that’s true… why does ANY poll weight heavy in favor of democrats… it simply makes no sense..

unless they are desperate to show an Obama lead which doesn’t exist.

Kinda makes them dishonest on their face… who, who thinks democrats are 9 points ahead in numbers to the GOP?… all the stuff I’ve seen shows they are at best about even and in reality, the dems are slightly behund.

mark81150 on September 19, 2012 at 11:08 AM

I was 21 then.. and the MSM was utterly desperate then,.. as now to depress Reagan’s numbers, so if they had even a single poll showing Carter ahead..

mark81150 on September 19, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Give gumbo credit for googling this up, he’s on a suicide watch since it turned out that the NBC poll wasn’t what he thought it would be :), and now most polls show romney tied or obama ahead by one with registered voters, which means he’s up with likely voters…

jimver on September 19, 2012 at 11:08 AM

For the first time this year Romney has a 3 point lead in New Hampshire acorrding to Rasmussemn.

logman1 on September 19, 2012 at 11:09 AM

So now we have Rasmussen, Gallup, AP and ABC polls showing a dead even contest.

Then why do so many eeyores insist on letting the media drive the phony narrative that Obama is winnging and Romney is waning.

Its tied, and the polls are going one way folks, ours.

swamp_yankee on September 19, 2012 at 10:05 AM

I think you and everyone else on here knows the answer to that. Suppress GOP turnout. That’s the only hope Obama has at winning at this point. If the electorate is in fact evenly split as Rasmussen and this AP poll suggest(and as it was in 2010), Obama cannot win. He’s too far underwater with independent voters at this point.

Doughboy on September 19, 2012 at 10:18 AM

Doesnt explain why Eeyores join in on the chorus. Eeyores, being Republicans, should not have an interest in suppressing turnout.

I think some want to look cool and contrarian. Others are still bitter and are waiting for their “Great Hope” to emerge in 2016 when it wont matter anymore because we will have lost the courts and ObamaCare will become permanent.

swamp_yankee on September 19, 2012 at 11:09 AM

If AP is showing Obama up by 1 then Romney is probably up by 4.

rplat on September 19, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Yep…

jimver on September 19, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Voter enthusiasm = turnout. The right will dominate at the polls.

Romney will win by a comfortable margin.

Many that voted for Odumbo won’t even admit it any longer.. Obama is a failure and they know it..
His support is way soft..

RockyJ. on September 19, 2012 at 11:00 AM

I like the way you speak. Instead of defending ourselves to the idiot trolls on here that are trying to suppress enthusiasm we should just act even more enthusiastic and talk about the inevitability of a Romney win. I’m sure that probably upsets them more than rational thought and facts since they aren’t capable of comprehending those anyway.

MobileVideoEngineer on September 19, 2012 at 11:10 AM

Do you remember the old Rally’s burger commercials? I do, cha-ching!

earlgrey133 on September 19, 2012 at 11:07 AM

sshhhhhhhhhh….. yeah… don’t tell nobody…

mark81150 on September 19, 2012 at 11:13 AM

T’was the night before elections,
And all thru’ the town,
Tempers were flaring
Emotions ran up and down.

I, in my bathrobe
With a cat in my lap,
Had shut off the TV,
tired of political crap.

When all of a sudden,
There arose such a noise,
I peered out my window,
Saw Obama and his boys

They had come for my wallet,
They wanted my pay
To hand out to others
Who had not worked a day!

He snatched up my money,
And quick as a wink,
Jumped back on his bandwagon
As I gagged from the stink.

He then rallied his henchmen
Who were pulling his cart.
I could tell they were out
To tear my country apart!

‘On Fannie, on Freddie,
On Biden and Ayers!
On Acorn, on Pelosi’
He screamed at the pairs!

They took off for his cause,
And as they flew out of sight,
I heard him laugh at a nation
Who wouldn’t stand up and fight!

So I leave you to think on this one final note…
IF YOU DON’T WANT SOCIALISM GET OUT AND VOTE !!!!

Author unknown

albill on September 19, 2012 at 11:13 AM

I think some want to look cool and contrarian. Others are still bitter and are waiting for their “Great Hope” to emerge in 2016 when it wont matter anymore because we will have lost the courts and ObamaCare will become permanent.

swamp_yankee on September 19, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Yep. I’m still amazed at the number of people who think it’s OK to throw in the towel now, based on the mistaken belief we’re guaranteed to get some conservative rock star in ’16.

changer1701 on September 19, 2012 at 11:15 AM

In fact, if Romney wins back North Carolina, Indiana, and Florida(which is very likely) and picks off Ohio and Virginia(doable, although Obama is more competitive on both states), New Hampshire would give him 270 EVs and the Presidency. He wouldn’t even need Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, or Wisconsin.

(That’s assuming of course Romney gets that single EV from Nebraska that Obama won last time, which one would think shouldn’t be difficult.)

Doughboy on September 19, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Romney will probably win all the McCain states (180 EV), plus Indiana (11) and NC (15), where he is ahead in the polls, bringing his total to 206 EV. The most direct path to the Presidency is to win FL(29 EV), VA(13), and OH(18), which would bring Romney to 266 EV’s, and he would need one other state from the possibilities of WI(10), CO(9), IA(6), NV(6), and NH(4).

Florida is a must-win for Romney–without it, Romney would have to win all five of WI, CO, IA, NV, and NH.

Romney could conceivably win the Presidency while losing OH and/or VA. If he wins FL, VA, and NH but loses OH(18 EV), Romney could still win by winning WI and CO.

If Romney wins FL, OH and NH but loses VA(13 EV), Romney could still win by winning any two states out of WI, CO, IA, and NV. There is even the unusual case of Romney winning FL, OH, NH, IA, and NV but losing VA, which would result in an Electoral College tie at 269, to be decided by the House of Representatives where each state delegation gets one vote. Since Republicans control more state delegations than Democrats in the House, Romney could win the Presidency in the House!

Steve Z on September 19, 2012 at 11:16 AM

albill on September 19, 2012 at 11:13 AM

Heh. Love it!

TarheelBen on September 19, 2012 at 11:17 AM

I like the way you speak. Instead of defending ourselves to the idiot trolls on here that are trying to suppress enthusiasm we should just act even more enthusiastic and talk about the inevitability of a Romney win. I’m sure that probably upsets them more than rational thought and facts since they aren’t capable of comprehending those anyway.

MobileVideoEngineer on September 19, 2012 at 11:10 AM

it’s all a matter of turning Off the MSM and looking at REALITY..

Not that hard to see what is really happening..

RockyJ. on September 19, 2012 at 11:18 AM

I made an Election Prediction model that is based on vote by “RACE” and based on the “Voters Intensity Factor”. In this model if I assume that 3% of Obama 2008 voters stay home in 2012 then for Romney to win the following battleground states the percentage of “White Voters” who voted for Obama in 2008 who need to switch and vote for Romney in 2012 are as follow:

Florida (5% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters staying home)
Ohio (7% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters staying home)
Virginia (8% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters staying home)
North Carolina (0% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters staying home)
Colorado (10% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters staying home)
Iowa (7% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters staying home)
New Hampshire (10% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters staying home)
Wisconsin ( 14% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters staying home)
Minnesota (12% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters staying home)
Nevada ( 17% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters staying home)
Michigan (18% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters staying home)
Pennsylvania (19% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters staying home)

If you are interested you can download my elections prediction model from this link:

http://www.fileconvoy.com/dfl.php?id=g398fa939fcccad5f147383df355571d7858c6a

mnjg on September 19, 2012 at 11:18 AM

What’s up with Drudge link to the amount of ammo being purchased by DHS as well as the social security administration? What is the government preparing for?

bgibbs1000 on September 19, 2012 at 11:26 AM

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 10:28 AM

I looked at the chart.. and NO, it doesn’t disprove anything..

I was 21 then.. and the MSM was utterly desperate then,.. as now to depress Reagan’s numbers, so if they had even a single poll showing Carter ahead..

CBS ABC and NBC were all positive of a Carter victory, it was all they talked about.. and on election night, CBS was practically on a suicide watch, if you read Peggy Noonan’s book about that night… when she worked for CBS..

Reagan’s election was a SHOCK to the democrats.. and national media, almost as bad as the 94 elections.. if there were many polls showing a certain Reagan victory, they sure as Hell never aired them..

But don’t let the memories of folks who lived through those days stop you from trying to rewrite history.

Reagan was NOT shown to be leading by the national media till just days ahead of the election, and even then, they still played it as an anomaly..

mark81150 on September 19, 2012 at 10:58 AM

..as with you, Mark, I was..er..somewhat younger than I am now but nonetheless alive and eager to vote for Reagan and against Carter.

Also, like your narrative, mine is anecdotal as well. However, I distinctly remember having ABSOLUTELY NO CLUE of the impending landslide. When I went to vote (immediately after work around 5:30 PM PST), I knew *nothing* of the situation.

When I got home (about 5:45 PM PST), I saw on the TV that The Drooler from Plains had conceded and the reportage was underway about the massive landslide. So that all came out of the blue to us. I can echo your description of the suffocating pro-Carter coverage of the alphabet media at the time.

Hope to God GutMeandPokeMe was out of swaddling clothes in those days lest his incessant mantra ring increasingly hollow.

The War Planner on September 19, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Doesnt explain why Eeyores join in on the chorus. Eeyores, being Republicans, should not have an interest in suppressing turnout.

I think some want to look cool and contrarian. Others are still bitter and are waiting for their “Great Hope” to emerge in 2016 when it wont matter anymore because we will have lost the courts and ObamaCare will become permanent.

swamp_yankee on September 19, 2012 at 11:09 AM

It’s really quite simple. We’re scared. And we’re not dismissive of the distinct possibility that Obama can still win reelection. I do believe Romney will emerge victorious, but there’s no denying the polls are close and there’s little margin for error. So with nearly 7 weeks left til Election Day, it’s human nature for us to entertain our worst fears of an Obama victory and overreact when a bad poll is released or Romney or one of his surrogates says something that annoys us.

Shoot, even Mark Levin conceded on his show yesterday that he often wakes up in the middle of the night in fear of what will happen if Obama is reelected. Rush has clearly had some days in recent months where he sounded dispirited. We’re all susceptible to this.

Doughboy on September 19, 2012 at 11:30 AM

Shoot, even Mark Levin conceded on his show yesterday that he often wakes up in the middle of the night in fear of what will happen if Obama is reelected. Rush has clearly had some days in recent months where he sounded dispirited. We’re all susceptible to this.

Doughboy on September 19, 2012 at 11:30 AM

In other words, we are not so far in the tank worshipping our candidate that we don’t see a possibility that he could lose. Democrats don’t worry because in their minds there is no possible way their candidate can lose. They are not realists, we are. Keep that in mind the next time a liberal attempts to call you an extremist.

weaselyone on September 19, 2012 at 11:32 AM

“That’s not good news for Team Obama”…..Ha Ha Ha

Don’t worry about the polls folks…just look at the “Vegas” odds for reelection. That tells you the true state. After the latest Romney unforced error, Romney is now getting +2.75 to one odds. He is a massive “dog” in the race. It was only +1.5 about a month ago. Cratering is a more accurate description of his campaign. No wonder his advisers are freaking out. No wonder he is talking about his underwear on talk shows. Obsession with polls is meaningless.

ZippyZ on September 19, 2012 at 11:33 AM

“Also, like your narrative, mine is anecdotal as well. However, I distinctly remember having ABSOLUTELY NO CLUE of the impending landslide. When I went to vote (immediately after work around 5:30 PM PST), I knew *nothing* of the situation.”

Back in 80, polls weren’t publicized as heavily as they are today. But the fact remains that Reagan WAS ahead in mid September in most polls and held that lead until election day when he blew the election open. The point is that the 1980 election is not at all similar to this one, where Romney has trailed in nearly every single poll in September.

Who was the last Presidential candidate to trail in the poll of polls in late September and went on to win?

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 11:33 AM

We have to win.. and Mitt has GOT to keep his pledge to repeal Obamacare..

There are many reasons to get rid of this buffoon president and his idiot heir apprentice. The world is exploding.. our troops are at dire risk.. the economy.. the deficit.. and a lot more..

and this isn’t entirely a selfish concern for me..

If Obamacare kicks in, everyone, including a half dozen family and friends are in deep trouble. Half the doctors are at or near retirement age,.. and have already said in two national polls…. They will retire before dealing with that abomination of a healthcare bill… Half the doctors in practice now will be gone..

The nightmare of long lines and rationed care won’t take years.. but months.. I have a surgery coming up in the next couple of months.. a lumbar fusion.. stenosis and all it’s problems.. possibly one to repair a severe acid reflux condition.. I have bleeding ulcers in my esophagus,.. on top of a colon exam, and issues there which might.. might require more surgery..

Obama gets his way… what do I tell my family?

sorry guys.. I’ll have to stay grumpy, on heavy meds, and wait years maybe to have relatively minor issues resolved, as well as the spine surgery because Obama knows best?

and what of the rest?

People who have far worse issues and conditions? I don’t mind waiting behind those who have greater need.. I really don’t.. but waiting because an Obama bureaucrat says so?.. on top of a workers comp bureaucrat?… and what of the others?

People with cancers.. heart conditions?.. People who literally are dying while waiting for their turn? Obama has the coin to buy his way to the top of the line.. has the money to fly to…..

wait…

if he succeeds in totally f**king up our health care.. there won’t be elsewhere to go… will there Barry?

or was the Chinese system your failsafe position? Cuba’s? the Russians?

oh.. yeah.. their’s already suck from socialist interference…. so the one place on Earth left where healthcare is in the top tier..

you want to make like the scandal ridden British one?

My God that as* has much to answer for..

mark81150 on September 19, 2012 at 11:33 AM

In other words, we are not so far in the tank worshipping our candidate that we don’t see a possibility that he could lose. Democrats don’t worry because in their minds there is no possible way their candidate can lose. They are not realists, we are. Keep that in mind the next time a liberal attempts to call you an extremist.

weaselyone on September 19, 2012 at 11:32 AM

Actually, Democrats are worse than that. When their Presidential candidates do lose, their initial reaction is always voter fraud. Even the 2004 outcome is still questioned to this day by some libs despite Bush winning O-I-H-O by well over 100,000 votes.

Doughboy on September 19, 2012 at 11:37 AM

“That’s not good news for Team Obama”…..Ha Ha Ha

Don’t worry about the polls folks…just look at the “Vegas” odds for reelection. That tells you the true state. After the latest Romney unforced error, Romney is now getting +2.75 to one odds. He is a massive “dog” in the race. It was only +1.5 about a month ago. Cratering is a more accurate description of his campaign. No wonder his advisers are freaking out. No wonder he is talking about his underwear on talk shows. Obsession with polls is meaningless.

ZippyZ on September 19, 2012 at 11:33 AM

The saying “The house always wins” isn’t a phrase that was just thrown out there for no apparent reason. Keep clinging to your “Vegas odds” and I’m sure Vegas hopes you put your money where your mouth is as well.

MobileVideoEngineer on September 19, 2012 at 11:38 AM

Who was the last Presidential candidate to trail in the poll of polls in late September and went on to win?

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 11:33 AM

Bush Jr. in 2000.

sentinelrules on September 19, 2012 at 11:40 AM

Obsession with polls is meaningless.

ZippyZ on September 19, 2012 at 11:33 AM

But obsessions with Vegas odds is valuable?

weaselyone on September 19, 2012 at 11:41 AM

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 11:33 AM

and Obama trails BADLY among independents with a massive enthusiasm gap since 08…

What president has lost the independents and still won?

What president had an economy this bad, with unemployment this prolong.. and still won?

What president had a middle east policy so so profoundly WRONG (Carter, cough, 1980).. was so throughly humiliated… and still won?

Take your pony show elsewhere..

We’ll have a massive GOP turnout,.. and the indies are in Mitt’s camp…

You can’t dig up enough zombie voters to steal this one.

mark81150 on September 19, 2012 at 11:41 AM

Don’t look now, but some of the swing polls coming out today from NYT, way over samples dems to rep. Who du thunk it??

ConservativePartyNow on September 19, 2012 at 10:08 AM

.
Just watch…………50%………

THATS the number the scum media has to PROP UP THEIR MARXIST LEADER with…

THE MAGIC NUMBER is 50%

FlaMurph on September 19, 2012 at 11:46 AM

Gumby shows up in every single poll thread on Hot Air (saying the same thing overandoverandoverandover again), but never in any other threads.
It’s almost as if each of these seminar trolls is dispatched to specific topics to pollute them with their assigned talking points.

Last week, Gumby claimed he was actually not an Obama supporter. He is a fraud, much like his Presidential hero.

Right Mover on September 19, 2012 at 11:46 AM

Here are some Bush/Gore polls. Both candidates had leads in late September and then Bush seemed to pull away, but the drunk driving scandal really hurt on election day. There is no way…NO WAY…Romney will have any of these leads vs Obama.

.

White House 2000: Trial Heat Trend, August-November

.

Back to Election 2000 HQ

PRESIDENTIAL TRIAL HEATS [Details] @ = vote projection
BUSH
% GORE
% NADER
% BUCH-
ANAN
% BUSH
minus
GORE
CBS ^ 11/6 44 45 4 1 - 1
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP #@ 11/6 48 46 4 1 2
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 11/6 47 45 4 1 2
IBD/CSM/TIPP ^ # @ 11/6 47.9 46.0 3.7 2
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # @ 11/6 46 48 5 1 - 2
VOTER.COM ^ # @ 11/6 50.0 45.0 3.5 5
VOTER.COM ^ # 11/6 46 41 4 0 5
ABC # 11/5 48 45 3 1 3
CBS ^ 11/5 46 42 5 1 4
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 11/5 47 45 4 1 2
HARRIS ^ @ 11/5 47 47 5 - 0
HOTLINE ^ 11/5 45 42 4 1 3
IBD/CSM/TIPP ^ # 11/5 48 42 3 1 6
ICR ^ 11/5 46 44 7 2 2
NBC/WALL ST. JOURNAL 11/5 47 44 3 2 3
PEW @ 11/5 49 47 4 - 2
PEW 11/5 45 43 4 - 2
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # @ 11/5 47 46 5 1 1
VOTER.COM ^ # 11/5 46 37 5 1 9
WASHINGTON POST * 11/5 48 45 3 1 3
ABC # 11/4 49 45 3 1 4
CBS/NEW YORK TIMES ^ 11/4 47 42 5 1 5
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 11/4 48 43 4 1 5
IBD/CSM/TIPP ^ # 11/4 48 39 3 1 9
PEW 11/4 46 43 3 1 3
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 11/4 46 44 5 1 2
ABC # 11/3 49 45 3 1 4
CBS ^ 11/3 46 44 4 1 2
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 11/3 47 43 5 - 4
IBD/CSM/TIPP ^ # 11/3 48 41 3 1 7
NBC/WALL ST. JOURNAL 11/3 47 44 4 2 3
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 11/3 46 42 6 1 4
ABC # 11/2 48 45 3 1 3
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 11/2 48 42 5 - 6
FOX/OPINION DYNAMICS ^ 11/2 43 43 3 1 0
HOTLINE ^ 11/2 47 40 4 1 7
IBD/CSM/TIPP ^ # 11/2 47 42 3 1 5
MARIST COLLEGE 11/2 49 44 2 1 5
NEWSWEEK 11/2 45 43 5 - 2
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 11/2 45 42 5 1 3
VOTER.COM ^ # 11/2 46 37 5 1 9
ABC # 11/1 49 45 3 1 4
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 11/1 47 43 4 1 4
IBD/CSM/TIPP ^ # 11/1 48 43 3 - 5
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 11/1 45 42 5 1 3
VOTER.COM ^ # 11/1 46 39 5 1 7
ABC # 10/31 49 45 3 - 4
CBS ^ 10/31 45 45 4 2 0
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 10/31 48 43 3 1 5
DEMOCRACY CORPS (D) ^ 10/31 45 45 5 2 0
IBD/CSM/TIPP ^ # 10/31 47 43 3 1 4
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 10/31 46 41 4 1 5
VOTER.COM ^ # 10/31 45 40 5 1 5
ABC # 10/30 48 45 3 - 3
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 10/30 47 44 3 1 3
IBD/CSM/TIPP ^ # 10/30 49 40 3 1 9
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 10/30 45 42 5 1 3
VOTER.COM ^ # 10/30 45 38 5 1 7
ABC # 10/29 47 47 3 - 0
BLOOMBERG * 10/29 46 43 5 1 3
IBD/CSM/TIPP ^ # 10/29 47 41 3 1 6
ICR ^ 10/29 43 40 9 3 3
PEW 10/29 47 43 3 1 4
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 10/29 45 42 5 1 3
VOTER.COM ^ # 10/29 44 39 4 1 5
ABC # 10/28 47 46 4 1 1
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 10/28 49 42 3 1 7
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 10/28 44 43 5 1 1
ABC # 10/27 47 46 4 1 1
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 10/27 49 42 3 1 7
NEWSWEEK 10/27 49 41 4 1 8
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 10/27 44 43 5 1 1
ABC # 10/26 49 45 4 1 4
CNN/TIME 10/26 49 43 3 1 6
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 10/26 52 39 4 1 13
HARRIS ^ 10/26 48 43 5 1 5
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 10/26 43 45 4 1 - 2
VOTER.COM ^ # 10/26 43 40 4 1 3
ABC # 10/25 48 45 3 1 3
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 10/25 49 42 3 1 7
DEMOCRACY CORPS (D) ^ 10/25 44 46 5 2 - 2
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 10/25 43 45 4 1 - 2
VOTER.COM ^ # 10/25 45 40 4 1 5
ABC # 10/24 48 46 3 1 2
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 10/24 48 43 3 1 5
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 10/24 42 45 4 1 - 3
VOTER.COM ^ # 10/24 44 40 4 1 4
ABC # 10/23 47 46 3 1 1
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 10/23 45 46 3 1 - 1
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 10/23 44 42 5 1 2
VOTER.COM ^ # 10/23 45 39 5 1 6
WIRTHLIN (R) 10/23 47 43 4 2 4
ABC # 10/22 47 47 3 1 0
AMERICAN VIEWPOINT (R) 10/22 42 40 5 2 2
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 10/22 46 44 4 1 2
IBD/CSM/TIPP ^ 10/22 44 42 5 1 2
ICR ^ 10/22 43 41 8 2 2
PEW 10/22 45 45 4 1 0
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 10/22 44 42 5 1 2
VOTER.COM ^ # 10/22 46 38 5 1 8
ABC # 10/21 48 45 3 1 3
CBS/NEW YORK TIMES ^ 10/21 46 44 4 1 2
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 10/21 50 41 3 1 9
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 10/21 45 41 5 1 4
ABC # 10/20 48 45 3 1 3
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 10/20 51 40 4 1 11
NEWSWEEK 10/20 48 41 5 1 7
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 10/20 45 44 4 - 1
ABC # 10/19 48 43 3 1 5
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 10/19 50 40 4 - 10
FOX/OPINION DYNAMICS ^ 10/19 45 42 4 - 3
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 10/19 44 44 4 - 0
VOTER.COM ^ # 10/19 44 39 5 1 5
ABC # 10/18 48 44 3 1 4
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 10/18 49 39 5 - 10
NBC 10/18 45 43 3 1 2
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 10/18 44 43 5 1 1
VOTER.COM ^ # 10/18 44 40 4 1 4
ABC # 10/17 48 43 3 1 5
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 10/17 48 42 4 - 6
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 10/17 43 43 6 1 0
VOTER.COM ^ # 10/17 42 40 5 2 2
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 10/16 47 44 3 - 3
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 10/16 44 43 6 1 1
VOTER.COM ^ # 10/16 42 40 4 2 2
ABC/WASHINGTON POST 10/15 48 44 4 1 4
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 10/15 47 44 3 1 3
CSM/IBD/TIPP ^ 10/15 44 42 3 1 2
ICR ^ 10/15 42 39 7 2 3
NBC/WALL ST. JOURNAL 10/15 48 42 5 1 6
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 10/15 43 42 5 1 1
VOTER.COM ^ # 10/15 43 40 4 1 3
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 10/14 48 43 2 1 5
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 10/14 43 41 5 1 2
CNN/TIME 10/13 48 43 4 - 5
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 10/13 48 44 2 1 4
NEWSWEEK 10/13 45 43 4 1 2
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 10/13 44 41 4 1 3
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 10/12 45 45 3 - 0
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 10/12 43 42 4 1 1
VOTER.COM ^ # 10/12 43 39 5 1 4
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 10/11 44 45 2 1 - 1
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 10/11 43 43 4 1 0
VOTER.COM ^ # 10/11 44 40 4 1 4
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 10/10 45 45 2 1 0
DEMOCRACY CORPS (D) ^ 10/10 43 46 5 1 - 3
HOTLINE ^ 10/10 41 40 5 1 1
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 10/10 43 42 4 1 1
VOTER.COM ^ # 10/10 44 40 3 1 4
ABC/WASHINGTON POST 10/9 48 45 3 - 3
CBS ^ 10/9 44 44 4 2 0
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 10/9 47 44 3 1 3
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 10/9 43 42 5 1 1
VOTER.COM ^ # 10/9 43 41 4 1 2
WIRTHLIN (R) 10/9 47 43 3 - 4
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 10/8 50 42 4 - 8
CSM/IBD/TIPP ^ 10/8 42 43 3 1 - 1
ICR ^ 10/8 43 42 7 3 1
PEW 10/8 45 44 5 - 1
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 10/8 42 43 5 1 - 1
VOTER.COM ^ # 10/8 44 41 3 1 3
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 10/7 49 41 4 1 8
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 10/7 42 44 5 - - 2
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 10/6 48 41 4 1 7
NEWSWEEK 10/6 43 44 6 1 - 1
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 10/6 41 45 5 1 - 4
CNN/TIME 10/5 47 45 4 1 2
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 10/5 44 45 4 1 - 1
FOX/OPINION DYNAMICS ^ 10/5 42 43 5 2 - 1
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 10/5 41 46 6 1 - 5
VOTER.COM ^ # 10/5 43 41 4 1 2
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 10/4 40 51 2 1 - 11
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 10/4 40 46 7 1 - 6
VOTER.COM ^ # 10/4 43 41 4 1 2
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 10/3 41 49 2 1 - 8
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 10/3 41 46 5 1 - 5
VOTER.COM ^ # 10/3 43 41 4 1 2
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 10/2 44 46 2 1 - 2
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 10/2 40 46 5 1 - 6
VOTER.COM ^ # 10/2 42 41 4 1 1
ABC/WASHINGTON POST 10/1 46 48 3 1 - 2
CBS/NEW YORK TIMES ^ 10/1 43 47 4 2 - 4
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 10/1 45 45 3 1 0
ICR ^ 10/1 42 45 6 4 - 3
MARIST COLLEGE 10/1 47 45 2 1 2
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 10/1 41 45 3 1 - 4
VOTER.COM ^ # 10/1 41 41 4 1 0
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 9/30 45 45 4 1 0
DEMOCRACY CORPS (D) ^ 9/30 44 47 4 2 - 3
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 9/30 43 45 3 1 - 2
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 9/29 44 46 4 1 - 2
NEWSWEEK 9/29 45 44 3 1 1
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 9/29 44 44 3 1 0
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 9/28 46 44 4 0 2
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 9/28 43 44 3 1 - 1
UMASS ^ 9/28 37 43 3 0 - 6
VOTER.COM ^ # 9/28 42 40 5 1 2
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 9/27 46 46 3 1 0
VOTER.COM ^ # 9/27 43 40 5 1 3
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 9/26 46 44 2 1 2
VOTER.COM ^ # 9/26 42 41 4 1 1
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 9/25 46 44 2 1 2
LOS ANGELES TIMES ^ 9/25 48 42 2 1 6
VOTER.COM ^ # 9/25 43 40 3 1 3
WIRTHLIN (R) 9/25 42 43 2 1 - 1
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 9/24 47 44 2 1 3
ICR ^ 9/24 40 46 4 2 - 6
VOTER.COM ^ # 9/24 44 41 3 1 3
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 9/23 47 46 1 1 1
ZOGBY ^ 9/23 44 42 3 - 2
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 9/22 45 48 1 - - 3

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 11:48 AM

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 11:48 AM

A Link would have worked beter then attempting to read this gibberish.

weaselyone on September 19, 2012 at 11:49 AM

“What president has lost the independents and still won?”

Bush lost Independents by a few points vs Kerry in 04 and still won.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 11:50 AM

2 words: Gas Prices

Romney should jump on the spike in oil prices. This is something that hits home. It hits voters in their pockets. Romney should start talking about what he will do to lower oil prices and challenge Obama on his soft approach to American oil production.

Dollayo on September 19, 2012 at 11:50 AM

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 11:48 AM

What point were you trying to prove exactly? The only thing that shows is that Gallup has always been all over the place in terms of their polling.

MobileVideoEngineer on September 19, 2012 at 11:54 AM

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 11:48 AM

Since the last poll for this year is 9/18, I went back to 2000 for something similar.

Bush – Gore – Nader

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 9/18 44 48 2 – – 4
VOTER.COM ^ # 9/18 40 39 4 1 1
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 9/17 43 48 3 1 – 5
HARRIS ^ 9/17 41 49 3 1 – 8
ICR ^ 9/17 42 44 6 2 – 2
JOHN McLAUGHLIN (R) ^ 9/17 44 46 3 1 – 2
VOTER.COM ^ # 9/17 41 37 4 1 4
WASH. POST/KAISER * # 9/17 43 47 3 1 – 4
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 9/16 41 49 3 1 – 8
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 9/15 42 48 3 1 – 6
NEWSWEEK 9/15 38 52 3 2 – 14

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2genT.htm

sentinelrules on September 19, 2012 at 11:54 AM

But obsessions with Vegas odds is valuable?

weaselyone on September 19, 2012 at 11:41 AM

Yes…Vegas Odds tells you the “true probability of an event” that incorporates everything (polls, history, momentum, electoral college, insider knowledge). It moves like the stock market as people place bets. A poll is just a single data point. The odds have so dramatically changed in the last month against Romney, that if you wagered on Obama one month ago, and now bet on Romney with the massive odds, you would be guaranteed winning with zero risk. There is “no BS” in Vegas Odds.

ZippyZ on September 19, 2012 at 11:56 AM

Yes…Vegas Odds tells you the “true probability of an event” that incorporates everything (polls, history, momentum, electoral college, insider knowledge). It moves like the stock market as people place bets. A poll is just a single data point. The odds have so dramatically changed in the last month against Romney, that if you wagered on Obama one month ago, and now bet on Romney with the massive odds, you would be guaranteed winning with zero risk. There is “no BS” in Vegas Odds.

ZippyZ on September 19, 2012 at 11:56 AM

HAHAHAHAHA…. that’s literally all I can do… HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

MobileVideoEngineer on September 19, 2012 at 11:58 AM

“What point were you trying to prove exactly? The only thing that shows is that Gallup has always been all over the place in terms of their polling.”

No, someone mentioned that Bush trailed Gore in late Sept, and these polls show each candidate ahead in different polls. Romney has only lead in one poll…Rasmussen…so he’s in much worse position.

Look at the past polls everyone. It will teach you a lot, and you can easily predict the outcome now.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 12:00 PM

Aww, what a hard worker gumbo is, he googled up some more…lookie at the the size of that thing, I wonder how desperate he might be to go through the pain, bless his heart…must suck to see his boy losing..I expect a total gumbey meltdown, angry ed-style soon, followed by a total pokey meltdown….one more poll showing romney up in some swing states and gumbo will kill pokey, or the other way round :)…either way, I hope I”ll be around to see that, what with the time difference and all…..

jimver on September 19, 2012 at 12:01 PM

Why is everyone pointing to 2000? We’re not talking about two unkown entities. One of them is an incumbent. 2008 literally mirrored 2000 except in 2008 the VP didn’t run. Everything else was almost the same with the parties basically just switching roles.

2012 has nothing to do with 2000, so why bring it up?

MobileVideoEngineer on September 19, 2012 at 12:03 PM

“Aww, what a hard worker gumbo is, he googled up some more…lookie at the the size of that thing, I wonder how desperate he might be to go through the pain, bless his heart…”

The evidence for what kind of shape Romney is in is easily found.

He’s actually doing worse than McCain was before the financial crisis hit. I realize that was due to the Palin factor/enthusiasm, but he still had leads in some polls until then.

Mitt eeeks out a single point lead in Rasmussen…loses in every other poll….and people here think he’s doing just fine, lol!

I will be ready to accept my accolades on election night.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 12:07 PM

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 11:48 AM

A Link would have worked beter then attempting to read this gibberish.

weaselyone on September 19, 2012 at 11:49 AM

:) gumbey is keeping his sources secret :)….he doesn’t trust pokey, that dang bitter clinger :)…

jimver on September 19, 2012 at 12:07 PM

Poor Romney! Now he’s behaving like Elvis in his waning days of barricaded hotel suites and blacked-out windows:


… Mr. Romney himself seemed pensive on the early-morning flight Tuesday from California to Utah, sitting alone with a white legal pad and a pen as he picked at a vegetarian breakfast burrito. An aide said that he had eaten dinner alone in his hotel room the night before as the video controversy began to unfold …

That dried up vegetarian breakfast burrito that Romney rightly refused to eat has more meat in it than Romney’s campaign message to date, wouldn’t you say? And it’s a lot more exciting. Who’s with me on this? C’mon, gimme some love on this. Don’t leave me here hanging. Look, Romney may be down, and he may be out of his mind, but he’s not out of the race. So chin up, everyone. Let’s show our dried up vegetarian breakfast burrito of a candidate that we’re still with him in spirit even as we redirect our more material resources to senate and congressional races so as to hedge our bets against the what is increasingly inevitable.

casuist on September 19, 2012 at 12:08 PM

Because someone mentioned Bush consistently trailing Gore in late September, which was not true and I posted the polls to prove it.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 12:08 PM

Why is everyone pointing to 2000? We’re not talking about two unkown entities. One of them is an incumbent. 2008 literally mirrored 2000 except in 2008 the VP didn’t run. Everything else was almost the same with the parties basically just switching roles.

2012 has nothing to do with 2000, so why bring it up?

MobileVideoEngineer on September 19, 2012 at 12:03 PM

Everyone is actually just gumbey and pokey :)….the two and only :)…everybody else is ignoring him…

jimver on September 19, 2012 at 12:12 PM


Because someone mentioned Bush consistently trailing Gore in late September, which was not true and I posted the polls to prove it.

Just so.


It’s time to admit the Romney campaign is an incompetent one. It’s not big, it’s not brave, it’s not thoughtfully tackling great issues. It’s always been too small for the moment. All the activists, party supporters and big donors should be pushing for change. People want to focus on who at the top is least constructive and most responsible. Fine, but Mitt Romney is no puppet: He chooses who to listen to. An intervention is in order. “Mitt, this isn’t working.”

The problem is that Romney is a small man. Too small for these troubled times.

casuist on September 19, 2012 at 12:13 PM

Beginning to wonder if Gumby is not only a troll, but actually an insider.

Chuck Todd, maybe?

Right Mover on September 19, 2012 at 12:16 PM

bgibbs1000 on September 19, 2012 at 11:26 AM

They could just be trying to inflate the price. They can’t stop you from buying bullets, just make it too expensive.

Mr. Grump on September 19, 2012 at 12:18 PM

For anyone in WI, radio talk show host Charlie Sykes just hammered on Tommy Thompson for his non-existent campaign. He now is either tied or trailing Tammy Baldwin and is pretty much dark on the airwaves here while Baldwin is on constantly.

The problem (and Sykes is right) is that Tommy got all his old pals together again to run his campaign, and their idea of running a campaign is to do nothing and cruise to victory, which did work in the past. But that won’t work in 2012.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 12:19 PM

Romney will probably win all the McCain states (180 EV), plus Indiana (11) and NC (15), where he is ahead in the polls, bringing his total to 206 EV. The most direct path to the Presidency is to win FL(29 EV), VA(13), and OH(18), which would bring Romney to 266 EV’s, and he would need one other state from the possibilities of WI(10), CO(9), IA(6), NV(6), and NH(4).

Florida is a must-win for Romney–without it, Romney would have to win all five of WI, CO, IA, NV, and NH.

Romney could conceivably win the Presidency while losing OH and/or VA. If he wins FL, VA, and NH but loses OH(18 EV), Romney could still win by winning WI and CO.

If Romney wins FL, OH and NH but loses VA(13 EV), Romney could still win by winning any two states out of WI, CO, IA, and NV. There is even the unusual case of Romney winning FL, OH, NH, IA, and NV but losing VA, which would result in an Electoral College tie at 269, to be decided by the House of Representatives where each state delegation gets one vote. Since Republicans control more state delegations than Democrats in the House, Romney could win the Presidency in the House!

Steve Z on September 19, 2012 at 11:16 AM

There’s just one problem with your scenario. Obama leads handily in OH, VA and NV.

libfreeordie on September 19, 2012 at 12:20 PM

Didn’t recently an article state that democrat party affiliation has dropped to below republican for the first time since the 20′s? If that’s true… why does ANY poll weight heavy in favor of democrats… it simply makes no sense..

unless they are desperate to show an Obama lead which doesn’t exist.

Kinda makes them dishonest on their face… who, who thinks democrats are 9 points ahead in numbers to the GOP?… all the stuff I’ve seen shows they are at best about even and in reality, the dems are slightly behund.

mark81150 on September 19, 2012 at 11:08 AM

The Party Identification polls are HERE

Democrats now trail Republicans by 4.3% in Party Identification and a larger amount in enthusiasm.

And yet the dishonest MSM is desperately trying to get Obama re-elected by putting out polls that oversample Democrats. And Fox News is too stupid to look at the internals.

Basilsbest on September 19, 2012 at 12:20 PM

Really disappointing that Ed still doesn’t know what a gender gap is. The way he outlines it, if woman were O+5 and men were R+5, the gender gap would be 0. This is just stupid, and more importantly, a basis for zero meaningful. Gender gap, the way EVERYONE else understands it, is the GAP between genders, in other words, “Wow Romney has a Gender gap because women go for Obama by 10 more points than men. He needs to close it by bringing women more in line with the men.”

Just adding leads among demographics isn’t a gap of those demographics!!!

jordan on September 19, 2012 at 12:21 PM

Oh, hey, Team Romney is turning their ship of fools around by issuing–wait for it, wait for it–a sternly worded memo! Why, that’ll take the wind out Obama’s sails, wouldn’t you say? Oh, indeed I would! Those wily Democrats never expected a memo! They thought Romney would zig, but he zagged! That he’s zagging right into the ignominy of electoral failure shouldn’t blind us to the enormity of Romney’s accomplishment of losing an election that was only his to lose against an unpopular president with the U.S. economy in a death spiral. Wow! How does Romney do it!

casuist on September 19, 2012 at 12:21 PM

The problem is that Romney is a small man. Too small for these troubled times.

casuist on September 19, 2012 at 12:13 PM

Which is why, after taking out the oversampling of dems, he is leading in every poll…you mind is too small for these troubled times.

right2bright on September 19, 2012 at 12:25 PM

“Which is why, after taking out the oversampling of dems, he is leading in every poll…you mind is too small for these troubled times.”

If the polls turn out to be right and Obama wins, anyone that bitched and moaned about oversampling should be tarred and feathered.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 12:29 PM

None, and I mean none, of my lib friends have badgered me at all. Believe me, they are not happy with Jugears.

katy the mean old lady on September 19, 2012 at 12:29 PM

“Which is why, after taking out the oversampling of dems, he is leading in every poll…you mind is too small for these troubled times.”

If the polls are right and Obama wins, anyone who whined about oversampling should be tarred and feathered.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 12:30 PM

Romney imploding on Intrade as well…

http://www.indecisionforever.com/blog/2012/09/18/free-market-rejects-mitt-romney

ZippyZ on September 19, 2012 at 12:32 PM

Obama leads handily in OH, VA and NV.

libfreeordie on September 19, 2012 at 12:20 PM

In D+5 polls. You forgot that part. In R+4 polls that reflect reality Obama loses handily in OH, VA and NV>

spiritof61 on September 19, 2012 at 12:33 PM

“Which is why, after taking out the oversampling of dems, he is leading in every poll…you mind is too small for these troubled times.”

If the polls are right and Obama wins, anyone who whined about oversampling should be tarred and feathered.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 12:30 PM

Hahahahahahahahahaha

MobileVideoEngineer on September 19, 2012 at 12:33 PM

Romney imploding on Intrade as well…

http://www.indecisionforever.com/blog/2012/09/18/free-market-rejects-mitt-romney

ZippyZ on September 19, 2012 at 12:32 PM

Hahahahahahahahaha… oh man you’re killing me… hahahahahahahaha

MobileVideoEngineer on September 19, 2012 at 12:34 PM

If the polls are right and Obama wins, anyone who whined about oversampling should be tarred and feathered.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 12:30 PM

Says the person who is going to send $10 to everyone on HotAir when Dr. Utopia loses on November 6.

spiritof61 on September 19, 2012 at 12:35 PM

If the polls are right and Obama wins, anyone who whined about oversampling should be tarred and feathered.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 12:30 PM

Pal, you do realize that voting isn’t tomorrow don’t you?

And “tar and feather”? Good grief, it hurt you that much to disagree? How do you type with one hand on the keyboard, and holding a blanket and sucking your thumb in the other?

right2bright on September 19, 2012 at 12:36 PM

They attack Romney while Obowma destroyed this economy

19% unemployment, U 6 number representing true unemployment.
17% youth unemployment
MIDDDLE CLASS famlies lost $5,000 in income per year unde Obowma
Record food stamp use
Record deficits under Obowma
Record debt under Obowma
Record 46 months of 8% U3 unemployment under Obowma
Recod job losses under Obowma.
ZERO actual jobs created under Obowma, first time in American history no net job growth.
$7 trillion losses in home equity undr Obowma.
Massive tax increases in Obowmacare.
Healthcare cost increases as Obowma said the price would drop
Massive gasoline tax increases under Obowma, gasoline price increased 120%, as did the gasoline taxes.
Black unemployment at 15%, black youth unemployment at 25%, Hispanic youth unemployment at 18%.

Romney is rich, Obowma made us poor.

dthorny on September 19, 2012 at 12:39 PM

Marquette Law poll out within the hour in Wisconsin. That is the gold standard poll that nailed the recall, so if the state is truly in play and a battleground, it will show up here.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 12:40 PM

I love this quote by Kristol. I know you will too:


… [Romney] doesn’t understand American conservatism and its relationship to the American idea. Conservatives don’t believe in economic determinism. Conservatives know–and explain why–their economic policies will help the poor, as well as senior citizens, working families, and our troops who pay no income taxes. Conservatives realize that the Republican party is not the party of people who want to be rich, it’s the party of people who want to be free …

… It remains important for the country that Romney wins in November (unless he chooses to step down and we get the Ryan-Rubio ticket we deserve!). But that shouldn’t blind us to the fact that Romney’s comments, like those of Obama four years ago, are stupid and arrogant.

Indeed: Has there been a presidential race in modern times featuring two candidates who have done so little over their lifetimes for our country, and who have so little substance to say about the future of our country?

Indeed!

casuist on September 19, 2012 at 12:43 PM

Here is an aspect of Obama foreign policy that may come to haunt us: With all the chaos in the Middle East, Russia can get all Soviet on Central Europe and China can go after Japan/Taiwan.

Truly, I hope we can change our leadership in November…before it is too late.

Mutnodjmet on September 19, 2012 at 12:44 PM

Oh, hey, Team Romney is turning their ship of fools around by issuing–wait for it, wait for it–a sternly worded memo! Why, that’ll take the wind out Obama’s sails, wouldn’t you say? Oh, indeed I would! Those wily Democrats never expected a memo! They thought Romney would zig, but he zagged! That he’s zagging right into the ignominy of electoral failure shouldn’t blind us to the enormity of Romney’s accomplishment of losing an election that was only his to lose against an unpopular president with the U.S. economy in a death spiral. Wow! How does Romney do it!

casuist on September 19, 2012 at 12:21 PM

I clicked on this moron’s website. It hasn’t been updated since Dec 7, 2011. Here is what I found. Some people never learn. And not smart enough to take down the link to the proof he’s a bitter moron.

colour me gobsmacked: Time-CNN poll has Gingrich at 33 to Romney at 20 in Iowa
December 7, 2011 – 22:51
Posted in political communication
Tagged election 2012, GOP primary, Mike Allen, mitt romney, newt gingrich, politico.com, Romney, Willard Mitt Romney

The numbers are here for Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida, the four early primary states where Gingrich holds commanding double digit leads in 3 of the 4. The core premise of Willard Mitt Romney’s campaign was a divided conservative base that would allow him to develop momentum by means of early primary victories in the form of electoral pluralities. So now he is suddenly where he never wanted to be: in a head to head struggle against a perceived conservative candidate going into Iowa with the conservative base rapidly consolidating its position both locally in the early primary states and nationally.

Basilsbest on September 19, 2012 at 12:46 PM

Once again Romney can neither embrace nor reject … his own words! Why do we want this non-leader to be our president?

Opinion is mixed on just how damaging Romney discussing “the 47 percent” at a spring fundraiser will ultimately be for the campaign. But longtime GOP hands find the video and Romney’s attempt to neither fully embrace nor fully apologize for his comments to be symptomatic of a larger problem. The former Massachusetts governor can’t seem to string consecutive positive days together and often is his own worst enemy. A month’s worth of woes, beginning with a forgettable GOP convention, has taken its toll on the Republican psyche.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81376.html#ixzz26w1e0zCi

casuist on September 19, 2012 at 12:46 PM

I clicked on this moron’s website.

You misspelled Mormon you sub-literate religious bigot. Take your anti-Mormon hate-spew elsewhere.

casuist on September 19, 2012 at 12:48 PM

but voters under age 45 remain solidly in Obama’s camp, 54 percent to 41 percent. Senior citizens, on the other hand, lean Romney, 52 percent to 41 percent for Obama.

One would logically think this would be just the opposite, because all of the young people are going to be paying for the rest of their lives for all the “free s%$t” the old people are collecting and will collect before they take that dirt nap.

But what in God’s green earth would logic have to do with it?

Tenwheeler on September 19, 2012 at 12:49 PM

casuist on September 19, 2012 at 12:46 PM

Who are you voting for come November? Going third party? Write-in? Protest vote?

spiritof61 on September 19, 2012 at 12:52 PM


But what in God’s green earth would logic have to do with it?

Does Romney support releasing old people adrift on the pack-ice to die? I don’t think so. And neither do you. So this is a non-argument in favor of a non-candidate known most notably for his non-leadership.

casuist on September 19, 2012 at 12:52 PM

Basilsbest on September 19, 2012 at 12:46 PM

You have more patience than me…as soon as I saw the “Willard”, well the rest is pretty obvious.
When you have to stoop that that “attack”, you know you are dealing with a goofball, perhaps someone who is a bit “slow”…

right2bright on September 19, 2012 at 12:52 PM


Who are you voting for come November? Going third party? Write-in? Protest vote?

You do what you can with what you have.

casuist on September 19, 2012 at 12:53 PM

In D+5 polls. You forgot that part. In R+4 polls that reflect reality Obama loses handily in OH, VA and NV>

spiritof61 on September 19, 2012 at 12:33 PM

Have no idea who’s doing the polling in NV (Clark County, which is the only area that really matters). Save for some Romney car stickers here and there, this is a rabid Herr Doktor area and these morons won’t vote for Romney. Then you add in CA transplants who brought their liberal ways here with them. I rarely run into a conservative here these days.

I really hope that local mormons vote for Romney, he’s toast otherwise, they should be enough to sway the elections his way.

riddick on September 19, 2012 at 12:54 PM

Del,

This is for you and anyone else who thinks that Reagan was behind at this time in 08. There are very few, if any, comebacks after this point in a Presidential race.

http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/debunking-a-myth-reagan-was-leading-carter-long-before-that-final-october-debate/

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 10:28 AM

What a Bac-o. Do you even read what you post? There have not been ANY debates yet. What a toaster.

Tenwheeler on September 19, 2012 at 12:54 PM

Casuist is spinning so hard I can feel the breeze in Chicago.

italianguy626 on September 19, 2012 at 12:54 PM

I can’t wait to hear the losers …

“How did Romney win, I don’t know anyone that voted for him”…

liberals are idiots..

RockyJ. on September 19, 2012 at 11:02 AM

I hear that every day regarding the current resident of 1600 Penn…..

“I didn’t vote for him!”

Tenwheeler on September 19, 2012 at 12:56 PM

Been away filling the warchest for the upcoming collapse and have paid little attention to the election over the last few months.

Can someone please tell me why Mitt isn’t running away with this? From afar, it appears he’s is living up to his MasterVacillator self, but that can’t be it, or is it?

CTSherman on September 19, 2012 at 12:58 PM


There have not been ANY debates yet.

When have debates ever been decisive in an election? Elections in the post-war era have always been decided by mid-September. This election may be different, but you’re basically praying for a miracle without precedent in the historical record at the point that your hopes rest on the debates that very few but the most committed partisans ever watch all the way through. So good luck with that. Oh, and you’ll note that I didn’t even mention that Romney is a terrible debater with a mannikin-like stage presence.

casuist on September 19, 2012 at 12:59 PM


You have more patience than me…as soon as I saw the “Willard” …

You do realize that Willard is the man’s name, right?

casuist on September 19, 2012 at 1:00 PM

I clicked on this moron’s website.

You misspelled Mormon you sub-literate religious bigot. Take your anti-Mormon hate-spew elsewhere.

casuist on September 19, 2012 at 12:48 PM

Well it certainly is moronic to include my quote when you claim I misspelled moron. What a pathetic attempt at deflection. I used exactly the right word to describe you, MORON.

I encourage other readers to go to your website. It provides an explanation for your idiotic anti- Romney comments.

Basilsbest on September 19, 2012 at 1:01 PM

Who are you voting for come November? Going third party? Write-in? Protest vote?

You do what you can with what you have.

casuist on September 19, 2012 at 12:53 PM

That’s not an answer. State who you’re voting for or if you’re staying home. You’ve favored us with your analysis, now tell us who you support. Or shut up.

I didn’t support Mitt in the primaries and I don’t like him or his record, but only my death would prevent voting for him against Barry Soetoro & Co. There, that’s where I stand. Where do you stand?

spiritof61 on September 19, 2012 at 1:02 PM


Can someone please tell me why Mitt isn’t running away with this? From afar, it appears he’s is living up to his MasterVacillator self, but that can’t be it, or is it?

Willard never had a chance because he has no natural constituency. He’s a one-term governor from a blue-state non-contiguous with the GOP regional base, and he is held in low regard by the 2 principal ideological formations of the GOP, the tea partiers and the Evangelical-social conservatives. His personal story is too remote from the experience of most Americans, so no one identifies with this guy, no one feels a personal stake in his success. The best anyone can do is “he’s not Obama!” which is enough for a lot of people, but not enough to win a national election.

casuist on September 19, 2012 at 1:03 PM


That’s not an answer.

I disagree.

casuist on September 19, 2012 at 1:04 PM


I used exactly the right word to describe you, MORON.

The all-caps are a nice touch. They capture your shrill shriek of dull-witted despair with precision. I’ll give you a moment to dab the spittle off of your screen. Or perhaps you can ring for an orderly to do that for you.

casuist on September 19, 2012 at 1:06 PM

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