AP poll shows Obama up only by 1, 47/46

posted at 10:01 am on September 19, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

The bounce has officially dissipated.  A new AP/GfK national poll of likely voters shows Barack Obama and Mitt Romney in a virtual tie, with Obama having a 1-point edge at 47/46.  The internals, noted by the Washington Post, show a demographic divide that should surprise no one paying attention to the race, but one that obviously balances out and doesn’t help the incumbent:

President Barack Obama and GOP challenger Mitt Romney stand about even among likely voters, with 47 percent backing Obama and 46 percent Romney. But there are sharp demographic divides driving each candidate’s support.

Women broadly back the president (55 percent for Obama vs. 39 percent for Romney) while men favor the GOP ticket (53 percent for Romney to 40 percent for Obama). The gender gap tightens some in the suburbs, where women tilt Obama by a narrower 51 percent to 45 percent margin, while suburban men favor Romney, 54 percent to 40 percent.

White voters without college degrees favor Romney by more than 30 points over Obama (63 percent back Romney compared with 30 percent behind Obama), a steeper split than the 18-point margin John McCain held over Obama among the group in 2008. White voters with college degrees are about evenly split (50 percent Obama to 48 percent Romney), about on par with 2008.

Younger voters are less apt to be likely voters than their elder counterparts, hinting at the turnout battle to come, but voters under age 45 remain solidly in Obama’s camp, 54 percent to 41 percent. Senior citizens, on the other hand, lean Romney, 52 percent to 41 percent for Obama.

Let’s compare these demographics to 2008.  Obama won women by 13 in his last election but also edged McCain by one among men for a total gender-gap advantage of +14.  The AP/GfK poll has him at a +3.  The age demographics don’t exactly match up with 2008′s exit polls, but Obama won the 18-29YO vote by 34 points (66/32) and 30-44YOs by six, 52/46.  Obama has lost ground here, and that’s before we talk about turnout and enthusiasm.  Also, Obama only lost seniors by eight in 2008, and he’s performing slightly worse in 2012, down 11.

What about the sample?  It looks surprisingly fair, at least among likely voters.  The D/R/I without leaners is 31/30/30 (with 8% refusing to identify), an undersampling of both Democrats and Republicans.  That was a big improvement from the 31/22/40 from the overall sample, which produced a ridiculous 52/37 Obama lead among all adults.

The rest of the likely-voter results are mixed news for an incumbent.  The right/wrong direction is upside down, 41/52, but not as bad as the LV result just before the 2010 midterms, 39/59.  Obama does have a positive job-approval rating at 52/47, which is an outlier even from Gallup’s registered-voter tracking polls, and suggests that Obama will underperform his approval rating among likely voters.  On the economy, Obama gets a 47/52, a 35/56 on gas prices.  However, Obama ends up leading on most of the other issues, albeit narrowly at times.

The bottom line from this poll is that we have an incumbent who can’t get to 50% even in a sample where likely voters approve of his job performance, and where demographic support has significantly eroded from 2008.  That’s not good news for Team Obama, and the events of last week will likely push this even lower.


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…47%…you disgust me!

KOOLAID2 on September 19, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Romney= win

Conservative4ev on September 19, 2012 at 10:03 AM

THE LEFTIST SCUM MEDIA’S BEST WEAPON-

Manipulating the Polls.

Tell everyone you know early, and tell them often.

FlaMurph on September 19, 2012 at 10:03 AM

…is there a lobotomy vaccine?

KOOLAID2 on September 19, 2012 at 10:04 AM

Here’s one possible reason for Obozo’s polling strength.

H/T: JWF.

CPT. Charles on September 19, 2012 at 10:04 AM

47%
That number holds steady because ignorance is all the rage.

Rio Linda Refugee on September 19, 2012 at 10:05 AM

Unexpected…

spinach.chin on September 19, 2012 at 10:05 AM

So now we have Rasmussen, Gallup, AP and ABC polls showing a dead even contest.

Then why do so many eeyores insist on letting the media drive the phony narrative that Obama is winnging and Romney is waning.

Its tied, and the polls are going one way folks, ours.

swamp_yankee on September 19, 2012 at 10:05 AM

Bullshiite. Romney told the truth and that has driven away good lie-loving Americans; this race is over already.

Dog Eater 2012

Bishop on September 19, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Bring on the debates!

gophergirl on September 19, 2012 at 10:06 AM

47 percent backing Obama

Mitt is so dumb and out of touch, he must have made that 47% figure up! Here is is again today. Amazing.

Fleuries on September 19, 2012 at 10:07 AM

AP poll showing TFG up by 1 means Romney is up by 4-5. Don’t need to go to Berlitz to figure that out.

Rixon on September 19, 2012 at 10:07 AM

So when does the number 47 become a racist code word?

earlgrey133 on September 19, 2012 at 10:07 AM

How about the new state polls out in VA, CO and WI?

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Americans don’t like appeasing weasels.

Obama = Carter

blink on September 19, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Sadly we are not the same country we were in 1980. The communist controlled school system have had 32 years to not only work on the populace in general but to shape the media through their journalism schools.

Rio Linda Refugee on September 19, 2012 at 10:08 AM

The news, both economically and in the middle east only gets WORSE from here.

Bern-Yank-Me’s UNLIMITED money printing AND the situation in the middle east are raising gas prices. Every penny over $4/gallon for gas is a lost point for Obama at the polls.

I fully expect he will be raiding the strategic petroleum reserve soon to try to edge this down. Which is a misuse of it, that reserve exists so that we can function IF an Iran goes crazy and cuts the supply, not for political purposes to win an election.

Of course, Obama believes his re-election a national security issue…

By the time November rolls around it won’t be close.

wildcat72 on September 19, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Don’t look now, but some of the swing polls coming out today from NYT, way over samples dems to rep. Who du thunk it??

ConservativePartyNow on September 19, 2012 at 10:08 AM

memo to axlerod….must re-double propaganda efforts…..

thedevilinside on September 19, 2012 at 10:08 AM

s/b has had

Rio Linda Refugee on September 19, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Dear Lefties, stock up on alcohol. You’re going to need it come November 7.

WordsMatter on September 19, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Interesting that Obama doesn’t want to talk about social security and medicare anymore.

blink on September 19, 2012 at 10:07 AM

What does he want to talk about?

Trafalgar on September 19, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Americans don’t like appeasing weasels.

Obama = Carter

blink on September 19, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Ah, but way too many of them do. Way too many of them do.

Midas on September 19, 2012 at 10:10 AM

How about the new state polls out in VA, CO and WI?

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Not your blog. Go start one and you can try to write…about those polls.

kingsjester on September 19, 2012 at 10:11 AM

“AP poll showing TFG up by 1 means Romney is up by 4-5. Don’t need to go to Berlitz to figure that out.”

Why? The sample is good.

Just because, I suppose…

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 10:12 AM

Since on average incumbent presidents lose points in the polls between the end of their convention and Election Day, I’d be pretty worried if I were little Bammy.

I might even release a doctored videotape of Romney talking about how too many people are dependent on government or something like that.

eyedoc on September 19, 2012 at 10:12 AM

Dollar index headed for rapid collapse – already in it, actually…

Dig that chart – you’re going to see rising prices at the pumps, at the grocery store, etc, all continuing in the very near future.

Midas on September 19, 2012 at 10:13 AM

White voters with college degrees are about evenly split (50 percent Obama to 48 percent Romney)

Reports that college degrees are vital to success are greatly exaggerated!

HoustonRight on September 19, 2012 at 10:13 AM

The D/R/I without leaners is 31/30/30 (with 8% refusing to identify), an undersampling of both Democrats and Republicans. That was a big improvement from the 31/22/40 from the overall sample, which produced a ridiculous 52/37 Obama lead among all adults.

Wait… their underlying sample was adults, not registered voters?

If so, then that split is probably something close to reasonable. It’s also meaningless. Polling people not registered to vote is like including Joe Sixpack’s numbers in with NFL players when considering NFL statistics. Joe Sixpack doesn’t play the game. He doesn’t count.

Likewise, non-registered adults don’t play the game. They don’t count.

JohnGalt23 on September 19, 2012 at 10:13 AM

…is there a lobotomy vaccine?

KOOLAID2 on September 19, 2012 at 10:04 AM

It is called “homeschooling”.

Archivarix on September 19, 2012 at 10:14 AM

What does he want to talk about?

Trafalgar on September 19, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Himself, you bigot.

Bishop on September 19, 2012 at 10:14 AM

These poll are all BS. Everyone knows that the election is over–and has been over for months–and Obama has it in the bag.

/KK-KM

JimLennon on September 19, 2012 at 10:15 AM

How about the new state polls out in VA, CO and WI?

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 10:08 AM

CO is essentially tied.
Did not see the party breakdown in the polls, but VA was unchanged in VA. In the internals, it seems Romney is leading among independents in both VA and WI.

bayview on September 19, 2012 at 10:15 AM

How about the new state polls out in VA, CO and WI?

daveyandgoliath on September 19, 2012 at 10:08 AM

How much did they oversample Dems, davey?

Del Dolemonte on September 19, 2012 at 10:16 AM

Don’t trust it. NEXT . . . . .

listens2glenn on September 19, 2012 at 10:16 AM

I dug through this poll. Amongst LV’s, on the question of who did you vote for in 2008, it was O+8. Pretty significant.

TarheelBen on September 19, 2012 at 10:17 AM

I wonder if the Obama campaign called Mother Jones and told them to stop releasing videos.

blink on September 19, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Mother Jones definitely isn’t in the same league as James O’Keefe. The timing of the release of the second video had to be the absolute worst timing in all of history. That’s seems to be why everyone is still focusing on the 47% one.

MobileVideoEngineer on September 19, 2012 at 10:17 AM

swamp_yankee on September 19, 2012 at 10:05 AM

What does he want to talk about?

Trafalgar on September 19, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Gosh. To find out what the administration wants to talk about, just turn on NBC or the concentrated version MSNBC.

The Morning Joe was acting like the whole Republican Party died after all the Romney gaffes. Scott brown is in flames, all the blue state Republicans are running as fast as they can and Mitt isn’t even a good extremist since he used to act centrist.

Can’t please some people. Act like Goldwater and you are a congenital nutcase, act normal, they twist words and events then decide that you are a sneaky nutcase extremist.

IlikedAUH2O on September 19, 2012 at 10:17 AM

So now we have Rasmussen, Gallup, AP and ABC polls showing a dead even contest.

Then why do so many eeyores insist on letting the media drive the phony narrative that Obama is winnging and Romney is waning.

Its tied, and the polls are going one way folks, ours.

swamp_yankee on September 19, 2012 at 10:05 AM

I think you and everyone else on here knows the answer to that. Suppress GOP turnout. That’s the only hope Obama has at winning at this point. If the electorate is in fact evenly split as Rasmussen and this AP poll suggest(and as it was in 2010), Obama cannot win. He’s too far underwater with independent voters at this point.

Doughboy on September 19, 2012 at 10:18 AM

How about the new state polls out in VA, CO and WI?

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Your going to be very upset when you find the media was actually lying to people like you in November

Conservative4ev on September 19, 2012 at 10:18 AM

The bottom line from this poll is that we have an incumbent who can’t get to 50% even in a sample where likely voters approve of his job performance, and where demographic support has significantly eroded from 2008. That’s not good news for Team Obama, and the events of last week will likely push this even lower.

Who knew Baghdad Bob and Hugh Hewitt had a love child! Only the most naive of sweet bald babes could think this milk wasn’t sour. Losing in all categories in a split that isn’t even close to reality, particularly in the swing states.

We’re winlosing!

tommyhawk on September 19, 2012 at 10:18 AM

Restore Our Future just announced a major buy in Wisconsin and Michigan, effective immediately.

And the ad is finally a terrific one — explaining that the real unemployment rate is 19%.

matthew8787 on September 19, 2012 at 10:18 AM

Are gumpyandpokey and daveyandgoliath the same person?

andy85719 on September 19, 2012 at 10:18 AM

How about the new state polls out in VA, CO and WI?

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 10:08 AM

What about them?

Obama leads Virginia by 4 with a D+9 sample.
Obama leads Colorado by 1 with an R+1 sample.
Obama leads Wisconsin by 6 with a D+7 sample.

Romney is winning Independents in all 3 polls.

BTW, Romney leads by 3% in new NH poll released today – Rasmussen

sentinelrules on September 19, 2012 at 10:19 AM

The registered voter split is 50-40 in favor of Obama. Its unclear whether these likely voter screens are accurate this time around. Its also curious that the poll things 38% of likely voters are in “the south.” And black voters will apparently only make up 10% of the electorate.

libfreeordie on September 19, 2012 at 10:19 AM

Who knew Baghdad Bob and Hugh Hewitt had a love child! Only the most naive of sweet bald babes could think this milk wasn’t sour. Losing in all categories in a split that isn’t even close to reality, particularly in the swing states.

We’re winlosing!

tommyhawk on September 19, 2012 at 10:18 AM

GALLUPUSATODAY SWING STATES: O 48% R 46%…

RASMUSSEN SWING STATES: R 47% O 46%…

MobileVideoEngineer on September 19, 2012 at 10:13 AM

Idiot trolls hardest hit.

MobileVideoEngineer on September 19, 2012 at 10:21 AM

tommyhawk on September 19, 2012 at 10:18 AM

Tell us what. Why don’t you leave ere, where you’re obviously unhappy, and find one on your intellectual level?

Doesn’t Roaseanne have a Blog?

kingsjester on September 19, 2012 at 10:21 AM

Dear Lefties, stock up on alcohol. You’re going to need it come November 7.

WordsMatter on September 19, 2012 at 10:10 AM

I think that phenobarbitol may be more appropriate. Mixed with some ketamine, then a few shots……good to go for the lefties./

ted c on September 19, 2012 at 10:22 AM

Are gumpyandpokey and daveyandgoliath the same person?

andy85719 on September 19, 2012 at 10:18 AM

That’s just me, doing some Creative Editing.

See, Nate Silver’s bast*rd son here chose to name itself after 2 Art Clokey clay characters, totally forgetting that said Art Clokey also created the Right Wing Religious clay figures Davey and Goliath at the same time. Clokey died a few years back, but his son is still doing Davey and Goliath.

Del Dolemonte on September 19, 2012 at 10:22 AM

Not your blog. Go start one and you can try to write…about those polls.

kingsjester on September 19, 2012 at 10:11 AM

Good post today, KJ. I LOVE that picture of Baby Barry having a tantrum.

Naturally Curly on September 19, 2012 at 10:23 AM

I wonder if the Obama campaign called Mother Jones and told them to stop releasing videos.

blink on September 19, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Mother Jones definitely isn’t in the same league as James O’Keefe. The timing of the release of the second video had to be the absolute worst timing in all of history. That’s seems to be why everyone is still focusing on the 47% one.

MobileVideoEngineer on September 19, 2012 at 10:17 AM

Mother Jones used to be edited by Mikie Moore.

Del Dolemonte on September 19, 2012 at 10:23 AM

Wasn’t he touting his chops as a “foreign policy” president? That is, up until his ambassador and couple of security folks got dragged out of the US consulate in Benghazi, beaten to death, burned, and sodomized. I’m sure that those things have to sag on the numbers a bit.

ted c on September 19, 2012 at 10:24 AM

The registered voter split is 50-40 in favor of Obama. Its unclear whether these likely voter screens are accurate this time around. Its also curious that the poll things 38% of likely voters are in “the south.” And black voters will apparently only make up 10% of the electorate.

libfreeordie on September 19, 2012 at 10:19 AM

Bless your heart. And white voters make up only 66% of the electorate according to this poll.

sentinelrules on September 19, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Rasmussen has Romney and Barry tied at 48 each yesterday and today if leaners are included.

bayview on September 19, 2012 at 10:25 AM

I think the pollsters are being forced to be a bit more realistic as we get closer to election day.

Romney is ahead in CO according to yesterday’s Rasmussen poll. I even finally answered the phone and participated in that one.

I think more realistic voters can see the Big Zero for the fraud that he is. And ditto on the MSM being frauds too. Many of the ones gullible enough to be taken in won’t vote.

COgirl on September 19, 2012 at 10:26 AM

The MSM wants to know: Why are we wasting valuable discussion time on anything other than Romney’s gaffes?

In an election where the daily national news cycle is uniformly bad for the President and the Democrats generally, the only path to reelection is through confusion, distraction and astroturfing. It’s absolutely critical for the Obama campaign to dampen GOP voters enthusiasm.

We need to focus, therefore on increasing that enthusiasm. Anything that builds excitement towards the coming election helps our guy.

MTF on September 19, 2012 at 10:26 AM

What about them?

Obama leads Virginia by 4 with a D+9 sample.
Obama leads Colorado by 1 with an R+1 sample.
Obama leads Wisconsin by 6 with a D+7 sample.

Romney is winning Independents in all 3 polls.

BTW, Romney leads by 3% in new NH poll released today – Rasmussen

sentinelrules on September 19, 2012 at 10:19 AM

Yep, and not only that, did you catch the GOP sample for VA? Only 24%, which vastly underestimates what Republican turnout will look like. And, in all three states, the GOP has a healthy lead in terms of voter enthusiasm.

changer1701 on September 19, 2012 at 10:26 AM

Naturally Curly on September 19, 2012 at 10:23 AM

Thankyaverymuch!

kingsjester on September 19, 2012 at 10:27 AM

Media working OT on the campaign and it’s stuck at 47%. Pitiful.

forest on September 19, 2012 at 10:27 AM

The D/R/I without leaners is 31/30/30 (with 8% refusing to identify), an undersampling of both Democrats and Republicans. That was a big improvement from the 31/22/40 from the overall sample, which produced a ridiculous 52/37 Obama lead among all adults.

If the Democrats all chose Obama and the Republicans all chose Romney, then each candidate got 16% from the Indie/Refused group.

In the WSJ/NBC poll, in a D+5 sample, Obama and Romney each got 8% from the Indie/Refused group.

If Indies are tied, the candidate who brings out the partisan “base” better will win. Romney can win this if he can win Indies and break even among partisan turnout.

The DNC bounce is over–this is once again a tied race. On to the debates!

Steve Z on September 19, 2012 at 10:27 AM

Bring on the debates!

gophergirl on September 19, 2012 at 10:06 AM

I’m convinced the actual debates are only watched by political junkies that on a whole have made up their minds. What matters is the media narrative afterwords, and we all know damn well the media will call them a major triumph for Obama. No matter how well Romney articulates the benefits of a smaller government ideology and free enterprise the best we can hope for is a wash coming out of them. Don’t look for them to make a big sway in numbers.

lowandslow on September 19, 2012 at 10:27 AM

Del,

This is for you and anyone else who thinks that Reagan was behind at this time in 08. There are very few, if any, comebacks after this point in a Presidential race.

http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/debunking-a-myth-reagan-was-leading-carter-long-before-that-final-october-debate/

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 10:28 AM

The Left is ourt today trying to talk inevitability, unfortunate for them it is inevitable Obama will get 47%.

Haven’t they noticed Obama is losing the independents in almost every poll.

Tater Salad on September 19, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Dear Lefties, stock up on alcohol. You’re going to need it come November 7.

WordsMatter on September 19, 2012 at 10:10 AM

I’m planning on having an election returns party and watching MSNBC (on purpose) to watch them melt down when Romney is declared the winner before 9PM EST.

wildcat72 on September 19, 2012 at 10:29 AM

What about them?

Obama leads Virginia by 4 with a D+9 sample.
Obama leads Colorado by 1 with an R+1 sample.
Obama leads Wisconsin by 6 with a D+7 sample.

Romney is winning Independents in all 3 polls.

BTW, Romney leads by 3% in new NH poll released today – Rasmussen

sentinelrules on September 19, 2012 at 10:19 AM

New Hampshire would be a nice pickup for Romney, and you’d think it would be in play since he freaking lives there and used to be governor next door(plus Bush won it in 2000).

In fact, if Romney wins back North Carolina, Indiana, and Florida(which is very likely) and picks off Ohio and Virginia(doable, although Obama is more competitive on both states), New Hampshire would give him 270 EVs and the Presidency. He wouldn’t even need Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, or Wisconsin.

(That’s assuming of course Romney gets that single EV from Nebraska that Obama won last time, which one would think shouldn’t be difficult.)

Doughboy on September 19, 2012 at 10:29 AM

I’d love to see the internal polls

the ones with Obama losing by slightly more than Danica Patrick

Slade73 on September 19, 2012 at 10:29 AM

B… but DIDN’T YOU HEAR WHAT ROMNEY SAID?!?!?!?! Gaffe. GAFFE!!!

/MSM

crazy_legs on September 19, 2012 at 10:29 AM

The Bounce is dead, and Mitt Romney is alive!

faraway on September 19, 2012 at 10:29 AM

“Rasmussen has Romney and Barry tied at 48 each yesterday and today if leaners are included.”

Which means the undecided vote will likely break for the President.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 10:30 AM

We need to focus, therefore on increasing that enthusiasm. Anything that builds excitement towards the coming election helps our guy.

MTF on September 19, 2012 at 10:26 AM

“We” are already decided voters, the middle, undecided are being distracted, confused and lied to everyday. Barry/Axelrod and their campaign arm, the media are focusing everyday with what is wrong with Romney and Barry is slithering in the shadow.

bayview on September 19, 2012 at 10:30 AM

The registered voter split is 50-40 in favor of Obama. Its unclear whether these likely voter screens are accurate this time around. Its also curious that the poll things 38% of likely voters are in “the south.” And black voters will apparently only make up 10% of the electorate.

libfreeordie on September 19, 2012 at 10:19 AM

Thought you said you were too busy grading papers to comment anymore.

hawkdriver on September 19, 2012 at 10:30 AM

“n fact, if Romney wins back North Carolina, Indiana, and Florida(which is very likely) and picks off Ohio and Virginia(doable, although Obama is more competitive on both states), New Hampshire would give him 270 EVs and the Presidency. He wouldn’t even need Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, or Wisconsin.”

Why is it “very likely” that Romney wins Florida? Are you even paying attention to the race?

Poll Date Sample MoE Obama (D) Romney (R) Spread
RCP Average 9/7 – 9/16 – – 47.8 46.4 Obama +1.4
Gravis Marketing 9/15 – 9/16 1728 LV 2.5 47 48 Romney +1
Rasmussen Reports 9/12 – 9/12 500 LV 4.5 48 46 Obama +2
NBC/WSJ/Marist 9/9 – 9/11 980 LV 3.1 49 44 Obama +5
AIF/McLaughlin (R) 9/9 – 9/10 600 LV 4.0 47 50 Romney +3
SurveyUSA 9/7 – 9/9 596 LV 4.1 48 44 Obama +4

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 10:31 AM

That’s not good news for Team Obama, and the events of last week will likely push this even lower.

ed is so unpredictable!

sesquipedalian on September 19, 2012 at 10:32 AM

Which means the undecided vote will likely break for the President.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 10:30 AM

Usually, it’s the challenger who gets these.

sentinelrules on September 19, 2012 at 10:32 AM

https://www.google.com/webhp?q=site:hotair.com+“bad+news+for+Team+Obama”

sesquipedalian on September 19, 2012 at 10:32 AM

I’m convinced the actual debates are only watched by political junkies that on a whole have made up their minds. What matters is the media narrative afterwords, and we all know damn well the media will call them a major triumph for Obama. No matter how well Romney articulates the benefits of a smaller government ideology and free enterprise the best we can hope for is a wash coming out of them. Don’t look for them to make a big sway in numbers.

lowandslow on September 19, 2012 at 10:27 AM

I disagree. I think that first debate will be huge. If Romney dominates, it could start a snowball effect that gives him the momentum the rest of the way. Especially since the second debate(held 8 days later) will be the VP faceoff which will almost assuredly end in Paul Ryan’s favor.

Doughboy on September 19, 2012 at 10:32 AM

Which means the undecided vote will likely break for the President.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 10:30 AM

What? I love how the liberal mind works, without any evidence for anything, just deem it so.

lowandslow on September 19, 2012 at 10:33 AM

“Which means the undecided vote will likely break for the President.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 10:30 AM

Usually, it’s the challenger who gets these.

sentinelrules on September 19, 2012 at 10:32 AM”

That’s true, but Rasmussen has been showing the opposite trend.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 10:33 AM

So- spot Bammy 2 more points between now and Nov. 6. (being generous here)

Romney still wins 51-49.

Bat Chain Puller on September 19, 2012 at 10:34 AM

Obama’s losin’
diffusing the illusion
JournOlist collusion
mass collectified delusion

Obama’s thinkin’
maybe baby killin’ ain’t thrillin’
the general pub at large
stick it in yo pipe and smoke it hard

Slade73 on September 19, 2012 at 10:34 AM

Why is it “very likely” that Romney wins Florida? Are you even paying attention to the race?

Poll Date Sample MoE Obama (D) Romney (R) Spread
RCP Average 9/7 – 9/16 – – 47.8 46.4 Obama +1.4
Gravis Marketing 9/15 – 9/16 1728 LV 2.5 47 48 Romney +1
Rasmussen Reports 9/12 – 9/12 500 LV 4.5 48 46 Obama +2
NBC/WSJ/Marist 9/9 – 9/11 980 LV 3.1 49 44 Obama +5
AIF/McLaughlin (R) 9/9 – 9/10 600 LV 4.0 47 50 Romney +3
SurveyUSA 9/7 – 9/9 596 LV 4.1 48 44 Obama +4

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 10:31 AM

Because it’s a traditionally red state, the GOP did very well there in 2010, it’s got a lot of seniors who heavily favor the Romney/Ryan ticket, and Jewish voters which Florida has in abundance are less receptive to Obama this time around.

I don’t think the final margin will be huge(3-4 points), but Romney should win that state.

Doughboy on September 19, 2012 at 10:35 AM

Desperate Trolls are desperate.

kingsjester on September 19, 2012 at 10:35 AM

Why is it “very likely” that Romney wins Florida? Are you even paying attention to the race?

Poll Date Sample MoE Obama (D) Romney (R) Spread
RCP Average 9/7 – 9/16 – – 47.8 46.4 Obama +1.4
Gravis Marketing 9/15 – 9/16 1728 LV 2.5 47 48 Romney +1
Rasmussen Reports 9/12 – 9/12 500 LV 4.5 48 46 Obama +2
NBC/WSJ/Marist 9/9 – 9/11 980 LV 3.1 49 44 Obama +5
AIF/McLaughlin (R) 9/9 – 9/10 600 LV 4.0 47 50 Romney +3
SurveyUSA 9/7 – 9/9 596 LV 4.1 48 44 Obama +4

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 10:31 AM

Oh yes because a 1.4% lead average with two polls that have Obama ahead by 4 and 5 BEFORE the Middle East started burning means Florida is a lock for Obama.

MobileVideoEngineer on September 19, 2012 at 10:35 AM

The Bounce is dead, and Mitt Romney is alive!

faraway on September 19, 2012 at 10:29 AM

heh!

ted c on September 19, 2012 at 10:36 AM

Which means the undecided vote will likely break for the President.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 10:30 AM

What? History says you’re wrong. If a voter is not firmly in Barry’s camp at this point, there’s about a 75-80% chance they never will be.

TarheelBen on September 19, 2012 at 10:37 AM

Poll: Approval of Obama foreign policy plunges…

ted c on September 19, 2012 at 10:38 AM

I love the smell of Troll Desperation in the morning. Smells like victory!

kingsjester on September 19, 2012 at 10:39 AM

Just wait til they get to that swing state poll from NYT/CBS/Quinn.

Zaggs on September 19, 2012 at 10:40 AM

Which means the undecided vote will likely break for the President.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 10:30 AM

Troll somewhere else already.

changer1701 on September 19, 2012 at 10:40 AM

What? I love how the liberal mind works, without any evidence for anything, just deem it so.

lowandslow on September 19, 2012 at 10:33 AM

Remember, the liberal mind operates on how they’d like things to be (see; unicorns, skittles, whirled peas, and “coexist” bumper stickers)and is unrelated to reality.

Trafalgar on September 19, 2012 at 10:42 AM

Which means the undecided vote will likely break for the President.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 10:30 AM

Time will tell

Rio Linda Refugee on September 19, 2012 at 10:42 AM

That 47% has taken on mystical numerological significance, hasn’t it?

Jay Cost has been arguing in his columns (and I think a couple of pollsters have said the same) that since the 1960s neither party has won less than 45% of the vote in a presidential election. 45% is each party’s “floor” for its presidential candidate. From there, each side has to eke out a victory by persuading some 5-6% of the remaining voters, who swing back and forth between the parties with each presidential election over the course of decades. Each candidate, then, “starts” with a lock on about 45% of the voters.

In 2008 Obama achieved near-unanimity with the black vote, and a much higher than usual turn-out of you. The near 100% black vote, or whatever adherents remain from Obama’s previous turn-out may well be the extra 2% of voters that get him to the consistently-polled figure of 47%.

You don’t need a majority to win the presidency (Clinton didn’t). You only need a plurality of voters higher than the other guy’s plurality. That’s why this campaign has been all about rallying his base, and the media campaign has been all about suppressing Romney’s.

de rigueur on September 19, 2012 at 10:43 AM

You don’t need a majority to win the presidency (Clinton didn’t). You only need a plurality of voters higher than the other guy’s plurality. That’s why this campaign has been all about rallying his base, and the media campaign has been all about suppressing Romney’s.

de rigueur on September 19, 2012 at 10:43 AM

That’s true. If those enthusiasm numbers in the batch of CBS polls is to be believed, though, Obama has had a very rough go at whipping up his base.

changer1701 on September 19, 2012 at 10:48 AM

I posted this in another thread – but that one is dead, so figured I’d move it here.

I know that once again I risk being called a “trucon” and vilified, but Romney is living up to every one of my expectations.

I support Romney as being enormously better than the alternative (Obama) and want Romney to win. I did not support Romney in the primary, for a number of reasons, but one of the biggest reasons is that I felt that b/c Romney was not comfortable with conservative thought, he would be unable to make a compelling case for his own candidacy. I also argued regularly that Romney, while an improved candidate over 2008, was still a lackluster candidate who would not do well against Obama. I argued that Rommey’s campaign would consist solely of him hoping that Obama loses rather than Romney trying to win.

I was very surprised by his pick of Ryan and thought that might bode well. But Romney has returned to form. Too timid, too cautious, and unable to provide anyone with a positive reason for his candidacy. He has reverted to going into hiding and hoping that Obama loses instead of Romney trying to win.

In a race we should be winning easily, the odds are against us winning at all. Those who pushed Romney as the “best” candidate because he appealed to moderates (generally meaning that he never passionately supported any conservative cause) – please explain your arguments to me again. I understand that we had a lousy pool of candidates to pick from in the primary this time (Gingrich? Santorum?) – but a big part of that was the early support for Romney by about 1/3 of the party, leaving the remainder to fight for the conservative vote. In other words, the moderates forced the conservatives to eat each other, leaving a moderate as the winner. How is that working exactly?

I’m not saying that we needed a fire and brimstone conservative as a candidate, but the idea that Romney was “the best candidate” is so dreadfully wrong, I expect some apologies from the crowd that vilified anyone who didn’t believe that Romney could pull this off. Romney may still get the win, but even if he does, it will be because Obama lost due to the economy – not because people want Romney. And, it will be much, much closer than it should have been.

All things that could have been avoided if the super smart people who always tut-tut conservatives within the republican party weren’t so damn arrogant all of the time and instead THEY compromised once in awhile.

Hell, at this point McCain ran a better campaign than Romney is running. And that was during “hope and change” season. I think Dole’s campaign had more excitement and charisma. Romney is running a terrible campaign, as I expected. He has no core “theme” for his campaign and has provided nobody with any real passionate reason for his candidacy. He is worse, by far, than Gore in 2000. Romney’s biggest fear is a campaign killing gaffe. To combat this, he is running virtually no campaign and hoping that Obama loses. It is not enough. It is not a winning strategy. Particularly when this race will likely be decided by voter turnout – running a race completely devoid of any passion will be a killer. Sure, all of the hard-core conservatives will crawl through broken glass to vote against Obama. But that is only about 30% of the republican base. How, exactly, is Romney energizing the rest of the republican base to vote? He’s not.

Monkeytoe on September 19, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Calling all trolls. Come join the dark side. The winning side. Get in while you can. On the ground floor.

faraway on September 19, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Obama’s eatin’
and his dog Bo is meetin’
an early demise
canine casserole surprise

Obama’s deeming
blasphemy is a freakin’
crime, if it’s Islam that is
Christianity can be derided as is

Slade73 on September 19, 2012 at 10:54 AM

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