AP poll shows Obama up only by 1, 47/46

posted at 10:01 am on September 19, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

The bounce has officially dissipated.  A new AP/GfK national poll of likely voters shows Barack Obama and Mitt Romney in a virtual tie, with Obama having a 1-point edge at 47/46.  The internals, noted by the Washington Post, show a demographic divide that should surprise no one paying attention to the race, but one that obviously balances out and doesn’t help the incumbent:

President Barack Obama and GOP challenger Mitt Romney stand about even among likely voters, with 47 percent backing Obama and 46 percent Romney. But there are sharp demographic divides driving each candidate’s support.

Women broadly back the president (55 percent for Obama vs. 39 percent for Romney) while men favor the GOP ticket (53 percent for Romney to 40 percent for Obama). The gender gap tightens some in the suburbs, where women tilt Obama by a narrower 51 percent to 45 percent margin, while suburban men favor Romney, 54 percent to 40 percent.

White voters without college degrees favor Romney by more than 30 points over Obama (63 percent back Romney compared with 30 percent behind Obama), a steeper split than the 18-point margin John McCain held over Obama among the group in 2008. White voters with college degrees are about evenly split (50 percent Obama to 48 percent Romney), about on par with 2008.

Younger voters are less apt to be likely voters than their elder counterparts, hinting at the turnout battle to come, but voters under age 45 remain solidly in Obama’s camp, 54 percent to 41 percent. Senior citizens, on the other hand, lean Romney, 52 percent to 41 percent for Obama.

Let’s compare these demographics to 2008.  Obama won women by 13 in his last election but also edged McCain by one among men for a total gender-gap advantage of +14.  The AP/GfK poll has him at a +3.  The age demographics don’t exactly match up with 2008′s exit polls, but Obama won the 18-29YO vote by 34 points (66/32) and 30-44YOs by six, 52/46.  Obama has lost ground here, and that’s before we talk about turnout and enthusiasm.  Also, Obama only lost seniors by eight in 2008, and he’s performing slightly worse in 2012, down 11.

What about the sample?  It looks surprisingly fair, at least among likely voters.  The D/R/I without leaners is 31/30/30 (with 8% refusing to identify), an undersampling of both Democrats and Republicans.  That was a big improvement from the 31/22/40 from the overall sample, which produced a ridiculous 52/37 Obama lead among all adults.

The rest of the likely-voter results are mixed news for an incumbent.  The right/wrong direction is upside down, 41/52, but not as bad as the LV result just before the 2010 midterms, 39/59.  Obama does have a positive job-approval rating at 52/47, which is an outlier even from Gallup’s registered-voter tracking polls, and suggests that Obama will underperform his approval rating among likely voters.  On the economy, Obama gets a 47/52, a 35/56 on gas prices.  However, Obama ends up leading on most of the other issues, albeit narrowly at times.

The bottom line from this poll is that we have an incumbent who can’t get to 50% even in a sample where likely voters approve of his job performance, and where demographic support has significantly eroded from 2008.  That’s not good news for Team Obama, and the events of last week will likely push this even lower.


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gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 10:28 AM

You are an idiot. You waste our time. Go home.

1980 (this one’s for those of you who say – “polls shift over time”)

Nov 1980, Gallup Pre-Election Poll
Carter 44%
Reagan 41%

Final Results

Reagan 50.7%
Carter 41.0%

http://voices.yahoo.com/general-election-polls-history-inaccuracy-869171.html?cat=75

Tenwheeler on September 19, 2012 at 1:06 PM

casuist on September 19, 2012 at 1:03 PM

You’re hysterical, and I mean that in the ‘I’m so frightened I can’t think straight’ way.

Don’t stop. You’re meltdown and convoluted logic is quite entertaining.

thatsafactjack on September 19, 2012 at 1:07 PM


You’re hysterical, and I mean that in the ‘I’m so frightened I can’t think straight’ way.

If you’re so “frightened that you can’t think straight” then perhaps your parents shouldn’t let you frolic on the interwebs.

casuist on September 19, 2012 at 1:09 PM

casuist on September 19, 2012 at 1:09 PM

And you’re expressing an immaturity rarely displayed here at Hot Air.

New in town?

thatsafactjack on September 19, 2012 at 1:10 PM

Local conservative radio host Jeff Wagner just said he had gotten the MU poll results and they are horrible for both Romney and Tommy Thompson. And before anyone bashes the poll, they nailed the recall, so they are the gold standard of WI polling.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 1:11 PM

Oh, noes. Romney writes off 47% of the electorate–wow, brilliant move, Willard!–and the Obama super-pacs are quick on the uptake:


ROMNEY TAPES GET THE SUPER PAC TREATMENT: That didn’t take long. The pro-Obama super PAC, Priorities USA Action, is quick out of the starting gate this morning with a new television ad featuring footage of Mitt Romney’s candid comments from a private fundraiser that has rocked the political world this week. The script of the ad, titled “Doors,” speaks for itself. A narrator says, “Behind these doors Mitt Romney calls half the American people….” And then the hidden-camera video of Romney finishes the sentence: ”Dependent upon government, who believe they are victims.” The narrator returns: “Victims? Behind these doors middle-class families struggle. And Romney will make things even tougher. Raising taxes by up to $2,000 to give multi-millionaires a $250,000 tax break.” And Romney again: “I’ll never convince them they should take personal responsibility…” The group says the ad is part of their $30 million effort to underscore the effects of Romney’s economic proposals, which is underway on television and online in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. WATCH: http://youtu.be/uaKIeR4Sn3k

I’m so glad that Romney is waiting until it’s far too late to spend all that money he raised, aren’t you?

casuist on September 19, 2012 at 1:11 PM

Gallup today shows it holds at 47 B and 46 R.

bayview on September 19, 2012 at 1:12 PM

The problem is that Romney is a small man. Too small for these troubled times.

casuist on September 19, 2012 at 12:13 PM

Well, even you admit that Romney is a man. Something that can’t even be applied to Hussein, first grade female students have more testosterone that Hussein.

riddick on September 19, 2012 at 1:12 PM

Mitt eeeks out a single point lead in Rasmussen…loses in every other poll….and people here think he’s doing just fine, lol!

I will be ready to accept my accolades on election night.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 12:07 PM

Yes idiot because Rasmussen uses a realistic party breakdown on his polls and not insane oversampling of democrats as the vast majority of other polls do…

mnjg on September 19, 2012 at 1:14 PM

But what in God’s green earth would logic have to do with it?

Does Romney support releasing old people adrift on the pack-ice to die? I don’t think so. And neither do you. So this is a non-argument in favor of a non-candidate known most notably for his non-leadership.

casuist on September 19, 2012 at 12:52 PM

And your reading comprehension skills are on par with Gum-me and poke-me.

The logic I was referring to was why younger voters are perfectly fine going in debt for the rest for their lives to pay for an unsustainable plan that continues unabated with the present administration with no end in sight. I said nothing about releasing anybody.

Fail.

You go home too.

Tenwheeler on September 19, 2012 at 1:16 PM

I’m so glad that Romney is waiting until it’s far too late to spend all that money he raised, aren’t you?

casuist on September 19, 2012 at 1:11 PM

Many of those who are actually part of the 47% think that they are part of the 53% and they agree with Romney… They think that there are far too many parasites living on their expense… In particular many working class Whites think so and agree with Romney…

mnjg on September 19, 2012 at 1:18 PM

Baldwin leads Tommy Thompson 50-41 in new MU law poll.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 1:22 PM

Baldwin leads Tommy Thompson 50-41 in new MU law poll.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 1:22 PM

Yeah that is not a very biased liberal poll… (super extreme sarcasm)…

mnjg on September 19, 2012 at 1:30 PM

Baldwin leads Tommy Thompson 50-41 in new MU law poll.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 1:22 PM

Pardon me. This is a Romney/Obama thread.

thatsafactjack on September 19, 2012 at 1:31 PM

In other news, a Vatican mob outraged over the recently unearthed scrap of papyrus apparently referring to the “wife” of the Christian messiah Jesus, attacked Harvard Divinity School today in Massachusetts. Carrying signs such as “Crucify those who demean our Savior” the militants demanded that the Obama Administration unequivocally repudiate the papyrus. Father Guido Sarducci, leader of the Papal Brotherhood and recognized leader of the demonstration, vowed that “We will not rest, we will not remain silent, we demand respect and equal rights! Catholiphobes beware: the fires of hell are waiting for you. No papyrus, no peace be with you!” A mock burning at the stake was held where paperback editions of the Gnostic Gospels by Elaine Pagels were destroyed…

spiritof61 on September 19, 2012 at 1:37 PM


Catholiphobes beware: the fires of hell are waiting for you. No papyrus, no peace be with you!” A mock burning at the stake was held where paperback editions of the Gnostic Gospels by Elaine Pagels were destroyed…

Elegant satire. Topical.

casuist on September 19, 2012 at 1:53 PM

Many of those who are actually part of the 47% think that they are part of the 53% and they agree with Romney…

And yet Romney himself argues that he can’t reach the so-called 47% to teach them about values and responsibility as if he were running for national parson or something. So who is right, you, or Romney? I’m guessing it’s you. Romney is a little slow.

casuist on September 19, 2012 at 1:56 PM

JUST RECEIVED AN EMAIL FROM RAZ:

Mitt Romney has now taken the lead in the swing state of New Hampshire. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in New Hampshire shows Romney with 48% support to President Obama’s 45%. Read More:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2012_new_hampshire_president

The War Planner on September 19, 2012 at 2:04 PM

New Pew poll has Obama up 8.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 3:56 PM

“Baldwin leads Tommy Thompson 50-41 in new MU law poll.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 1:22 PM

Yeah that is not a very biased liberal poll… (super extreme sarcasm)…

mnjg on September 19, 2012 at 1:30 PM”

Yeah, a real liberal poll, lol. Here is how they did on the Walker recall…

Poll Date Sample Walker (R) Barrett (D) Spread
Final Results – – 53.1 46.3 Walker +6.8
RCP Average 5/17 – 6/3 – 51.5 44.8 Walker +6.7
WeAskAmerica 6/3 – 6/3 1570 LV 54 42 Walker +12
PPP (D) 6/2 – 6/3 1226 LV 50 47 Walker +3
Marquette University 5/23 – 5/26 600 LV 52 45 Walker +7
WPR/St. Norbert 5/17 – 5/22 406 LV 50 45 Walker +5

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 3:58 PM

What’s their history? Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then.

italianguy626 on September 19, 2012 at 4:11 PM

Just looked at the cross tabs – 60% of their sample came from Milwaukee media market and Madison media market, the two biggest Dem areas of the state.

As to their “accuracy” of the Walker recall, they had it 50-44 walker. The actual was 53-46. Also, they were one of two polls (PPP being the other) that at one time showed Barrett in the lead. All other polls taken in WI showed Walker in the lead throughout the entire campaign.

In terms of most accurate poll in that recall, We Ask America and Angus Reid Public Opinion were the closest to the actual results.

italianguy626 on September 19, 2012 at 4:22 PM

Sorry for three in a row…mea culpa on the the Marquette poll data in the Walker recall. I was looking at an poll from earlier in the contest when I said 50-44.

Still, Marquette was only one of two polls that even had Barrett in the lead at any point in the contest. What does this tell me? As they got closer to the election, they had to shift to a better model so they wouldn’t look like fools and maintain an air of “credibility”.

italianguy626 on September 19, 2012 at 4:36 PM

with 8% refusing to identify

Seems this makes the poll a wild card.

Shouldn’t they refuse to include people in the poll who won’t identify as either independent or some party, any party, even LP or Green?

31/30/30 with 8% basically “refusing to tell” (I ain’t sayin’ and you can’t make me, so there) sounds like a crappy sample to me.

farsighted on September 19, 2012 at 6:53 PM

Del,

This is for you and anyone else who thinks that Reagan was behind at this time in 08. There are very few, if any, comebacks after this point in a Presidential race.

http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/debunking-a-myth-reagan-was-leading-carter-long-before-that-final-october-debate/

daveyandgoliath on September 19, 2012 at 10:28 AM

Sorry, goliath, but you posted that very same Lie on another thread here last night, and I debunked it immediately with actual polling cites.

So did someone else.

F-

Del Dolemonte on September 19, 2012 at 6:54 PM

If the polls are right and Obama wins, anyone who whined about oversampling should be tarred and feathered.

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 12:30 PM

You do know that Republican African Americans were tarred and feathered on occasion by the Democrats down South, don’t you?

Obviously not.

Cretin-

Del Dolemonte on September 19, 2012 at 7:05 PM

the gold standard poll

daveyandgoliath on September 19, 2012 at 12:40 PM

No such thing as a gold standard poll. Last time there was one was when George Gallup still owned the company he founded. He sold it before you were born.

G-

Del Dolemonte on September 19, 2012 at 7:07 PM

I love this quote by Kristol. I know you will too:

casuist on September 19, 2012 at 12:43 PM

I love it when Desperate Democrats are reduced to quoting Neocon Billy Kristol. Proves they know their Dear Leader is in trouble.

A+

Del Dolemonte on September 19, 2012 at 7:08 PM

I’m not a stockholder, but those of my friends who are use the “buy-and-hold” strategy: If your stock goes up, be happy. If your stock goes down, buy more at the new lower price. Assuming you picked a good stock in the first place, it will probably go back up at some point.

Again, I’m not a stockholder and claim no sophistication whatsoever in these matters — moreover, the normal economic rules don’t apply in such a straightforward fashion when Obagman and his cronies are gleefully manipulating the economy.

But maybe there’s a lesson for us here. If our polls go up, let’s be happy. If our polls go down, let’s work harder. Assuming we picked a good candidate in the first place (and I am well aware there’s quite a lot of controversy on that subject!), and we keep working without getting discouraged, our polls will probably go back up at some point.

So bad polls shouldn’t be our signal to mope in the corner, or start tearing at each other, or get unduly rankled by smug chortling from trolls. Bad polls should be our signal to get active. Talk to our undecided friends, bravely put up a yard sign or put on a T-shirt, give a little more money to the candidates we support (not, I think, to the RNC, though I’m willing to be persuaded).

Remember Breitbart, our happy warrior.

Mary in LA on September 19, 2012 at 7:09 PM

daveyandgoliath on September 19, 2012 at 10:28 AM

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 3:56 PM

16,000,000,000,000 Lol! All yours boys. You can feel free to cut a check.

Bmore on September 19, 2012 at 7:13 PM

New Pew poll has Obama up 8.

daveyandgoliath on September 19, 2012 at 3:56 PM

Just looked at the “sample” PEW used.

They oversampled Democrats by…get ready…

17%

http://www.people-press.org/2012/09/19/about-the-surveys-20/

F-

Del Dolemonte on September 19, 2012 at 7:16 PM

Careful Now, American Voters Have Unforeseen “Temper Tantrums,” You Know?

http://predicthistunpredictpast.blogspot.com/2012/09/careful-now-american-voters-have.html

M2RB: Ray Charles

Resist We Much on September 19, 2012 at 7:17 PM

Alright gang, for some historical perspective I went back to the October/November posts from 2008 here on HotGas.

Here are my observations:

We thought the polls were wrong.
We talked about the Bradley effect.
We clung to polls we thought were right even when they were clear outliers.
We exhibited some serious hubris “On November 4, it’ll be President McCain, Vice-President Palin. Take it to the bank!” and things to that effect.

Today, I see some of the above. We think the polls are wrong, some of us display unabashed confidence that Romney has this one in the bag a la “ManlyRash”. I’m not trying to be pessimistic and I realize 7 weeks is an eternity in presidential campaigns. Can someone give me a reality check and explain why this time it’s different?

adurb44 on September 19, 2012 at 8:26 PM

OFA sure is wasting their money on their propaganda disseminators.

tom daschle concerned on September 19, 2012 at 8:38 PM

Del,

This is for you and anyone else who thinks that Reagan was behind at this time in 08. There are very few, if any, comebacks after this point in a Presidential race.

http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/debunking-a-myth-reagan-was-leading-carter-long-before-that-final-october-debate/

daveyandgoliath on September 19, 2012 at 10:28 AM

Behind or not, America in 1980 was a radically different place than America in 2012. Majority white, middle of the road Eisenhower Republicans (the “Greatest Generation” was still a force to be reckoned with) and we still hadn’t yet felt the full effects of academia and media brainwashing of our youth, many of whom longed for the America of Leave It To Beaver and Mayberry, and wished to wash away the malaise of post Vietnam America.

Sadly, that day has long gone. And whine about GWB the RINO all you want, but with the changing demographics and with the Soros-controlled media openly shilling 24/7 for the Democrat party, he just maybe the last GOP president this country ever has.

JFS61 on September 19, 2012 at 8:41 PM

Adurb, the only thing I can suggest is you need to look at demographics very closely. Obama will receive smaller percentages with most demographics, Jews, youth,and Catholics. In addition, the groups that would tend to support him are likely to come out in much smaller numbers. Add in the fact that R’s are more intense about voting than last time. When you combine all these factors it seems like it will be hard for obama to get anywhere near 50%.

Ta111 on September 19, 2012 at 8:42 PM

OFA sure is wasting their money on their propaganda disseminators.

tom daschle concerned on September 19, 2012 at 8:38 PM

I hope you’re not referring to me. While not a frequent poster, I’ve been a long-time reader and occasional poster. My only contact with OFA is me telling the OFA girl who knocked on my door that Obama’s “not my guy”.

adurb44 on September 19, 2012 at 8:42 PM

The fact that Obama is even competitive says volumes about this poor sick republic. The advantage rests with the parasitic underclass and their bleeding heart liberal benefactors. The really sad part is if we end up with another four years of Obama, the Republic will be totally destroyed. I see very little that would encourage a sense of optimism.

rplat on September 19, 2012 at 8:59 PM

I’m not trying to be pessimistic and I realize 7 weeks is an eternity in presidential campaigns. Can someone give me a reality check and explain why this time it’s different?

adurb44 on September 19, 2012 at 8:26 PM

1. Ryan is a plausible VP…Palin was a moron.
2. 0% chance that Republicans were going to win after 8 years of Republican leadership under Bush…the worst President in history and the single most unpopular President in the history of polling. Mitt is running to displace a President who is in charge of a weak economy.
3. Someone might figure out how to give Romney a personality transplant by election day

The biggest problem is the electoral college massively favors Obama. Romney has to Win Florida AND Ohio otherwise he’s toast. His pathway to the Presidency is very limited. His last chance is the first debate. He needs to hit a home run. Unfortunately, Obama is just running out the clock at this point. As long as he does not say something amazingly stupid he can play for the tie.

The electoral college is dramatically changing for the Dems. Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Virginia are about to flip Democrat for the long-term. If Obama wins this election, it may be time for the Republicans to jettison the social conservatives once-and-for-all. The Republican constituency is getting older and whiter each election cycle. Time to open up the tent.

ZippyZ on September 19, 2012 at 9:00 PM

Bush…the worst President in history and the single most unpopular President in the history of polling.

ZippyZ on September 19, 2012 at 9:00 PM

Ah, I see Soros and Axelrod have activated another Sleeper Cell from the last Open Reg. Just like their heroes in AQ, they certainly are patient. Welcome Aboard, Kid!

Can you prove your claim that Bush was “the worst President in history”, and back it with credible, multi-sourced Facts? Of course not.

And you conveniently ignore that Bush was also the most popular President in the history of polling. Your Dear Leader can only wish for 70% or 80% or 90% job approval numbers.

Bush got all of those. He got an amazing 91% Job Approval after the attacks Bill Clinton left him, and never went below 55% until almost 4 years into his first term, an achievement that drove you BDS Leftists nuts at the time and still does.

The highest O’bamna has ever reached in Job Approval? 76% in one outlier CNN/ORC “pole”. And that was done in February of 2009. It was obviously a Fake “pole”, as all other “poles” at the same time had him 10 points lower.

Since then, he’s only exceeded 55% Job Approval once. And that was in one of several “poles” done after he killed bin Laden with his bare hands last May. But remember, even then, the Associated Press had to sample almost twice as many Democrats as Republicans to give him a Job Approval Bump to 60%.

http://pollingreport.com/obama_job.htm

F-

Del Dolemonte on September 19, 2012 at 9:21 PM

Del Dolemonte on September 19, 2012 at 9:21 PM

http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-500160_162-4728399.html

You are not very good at this. Bush was the most unpopular president in the history of polling. His lowest poll was as he was leaving office. The true awfulness of his presidency was not realized until his second term. He set back conservatism 20 years. That’s why Obama won so easily with no details on what he was going to do. Gosh…I sure enjoyed Bush’s speech at the Republican convention. Republicans don’t even utter his name anymore because it gives everyone the shivers. Please tell me again how popular Bush was. Ha Ha Ha. The worst and most unpopular president in history! Mission Accomplished!

ZippyZ on September 19, 2012 at 9:40 PM

If Obama wins this election, it may be time for the Republicans to jettison the social conservatives once-and-for-all. The Republican constituency is getting older and whiter each election cycle. Time to open up the tent.

ZippyZ
on September 19, 2012 at 9:00 PM

.
Howard Stern … is that you?

listens2glenn on September 19, 2012 at 9:52 PM

Del Dolemonte on September 19, 2012 at 9:21 PM

.
http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-500160_162-4728399.html

You are not very good at this. Bush was the most unpopular president in the history of polling. His lowest poll was as he was leaving office. The true awfulness of his presidency was not realized until his second term.

ZippyZ on September 19, 2012 at 9:40 PM

.
I trust those “polls” about as much as I do the ones today, which is to say not at all.
But for the sake of argument, let’s give those polls some “credibility”, at the time they were taken.

If we were to poll those same people today, and ask who they thought did a better job (which is not to say a “good job”) in office between W and Obama . . . . . .

. . . . . how would that poll turn out?

listens2glenn on September 19, 2012 at 10:03 PM

If we were to poll those same people today, and ask who they thought did a better job (which is not to say a “good job”) in office between W and Obama . . . . . .

. . . . . how would that poll turn out?

listens2glenn on September 19, 2012 at 10:03 PM

In all seriousness I think most people think Obama is a better president and it would not be close.

The economy was cratering at the end of Bush’s second term. It was almost a depression. Everyone knows that. The economy is better today. The stock market is doing great and the banking system is not at the verge of collapse. America is not as economically strong as we traditionally are, but neither is the rest of the western world. We are all paying for the economic sins of the past 30 years (government borrowing and personal borrowing). We will be paying for the sins for many years to come.

At least listens2glenn seems to admit W was not a good president. Now the next step is to realize that the only reason you will have 8 years of O is to punish you for 8 years of W. Now turn your anger to Karl Rove for creating the Bush Monster and marketing him so well.

ZippyZ on September 19, 2012 at 10:38 PM

We thought the polls were wrong.
We talked about the Bradley effect.
We clung to polls we thought were right even when they were clear outliers.
We exhibited some serious hubris “On November 4, it’ll be President McCain, Vice-President Palin. Take it to the bank!” and things to that effect.

Today, I see some of the above. We think the polls are wrong, some of us display unabashed confidence that Romney has this one in the bag a la “ManlyRash”. I’m not trying to be pessimistic and I realize 7 weeks is an eternity in presidential campaigns. Can someone give me a reality check and explain why this time it’s different?

It’s not. Your gut instinct is right. Most people at Hot Air are clinging to the Rasmussen life raft in a desperate effort to convince themselves that Romney has this one “in the bag.” Romney’s toast. He’s an awful candidate. With a half-way decent candidate, Obama would lose. Romney stinks, you all know it, but your partisan hackery won’t allow most of you to admit it.

Take it to the bank, Mitt!

lostmotherland on September 20, 2012 at 9:03 AM

Yeah, a real liberal poll, lol. Here is how they did on the Walker recall…Poll Date Sample Walker (R) Barrett (D) Spread
Final Results – – 53.1 46.3 Walker +6.8
RCP Average 5/17 – 6/3 – 51.5 44.8 Walker +6.7
WeAskAmerica 6/3 – 6/3 1570 LV 54 42 Walker +12
PPP (D) 6/2 – 6/3 1226 LV 50 47 Walker +3
Marquette University 5/23 – 5/26 600 LV 52 45 Walker +7
WPR/St. Norbert 5/17 – 5/22 406 LV 50 45 Walker +5

gumbyandpokey on September 19, 2012 at 3:58 PM

The MU Walker poll had a split of D+6 and was pretty close to being accurate. Their most recent poll has a D+11 scew. MU’s Presidential polling has used a D+2 – D+6 prior to this new D+11 Poll.

Obama had a lead no greater then +6 over Romney in the MU polling prior to this most recent one and was only +3 after last month’s poll with said Dem splits of D+2 to D+6. I wonder what happened to make the scew go to D+11? The only thing shocking about this MU poll is the blatant adjustment of the sample to get a result that benefits Obama and Democrats. It definitely is not consistent with what they have been doing, so claiming credibility because of the Walker Poll is absurd. If that poll is so credible, then why did they adjust the split so much for this poll?

weaselyone on September 20, 2012 at 9:35 AM

(blah,blah)… Most people at Hot Air are clinging to the Rasmussen life raft in a desperate effort..(blah,blah)… He’s an awful candidate…(blah,blah)… Romney stinks … (blah,blah) your partisan hackery (blah,blah)…

lostmotherland on September 20, 2012 at 9:03 AM

Broad brush much?

farsighted on September 20, 2012 at 10:08 AM

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