WSJ/NBC poll: Obama 50, Romney 45

posted at 8:01 pm on September 18, 2012 by Allahpundit

The sample: 42D/37R/16I, or D+5. That’s not bad for an outfit that’s had some truly dreadful samples so far this year, but it’s still a few points bluer than election day is likely to be. The poll was conducted from September 12 to 16, too, which means it’s missed the last few days of Obama’s disappearing bounce. No telling what’ll happen once the “47 percent” comments are priced in, but these numbers aren’t remotely as bad as you’d expect from all the media shrieking over Romney’s Libya comments last week. In fact, it’s O who’s taken a hit on foreign policy: He’s down 12 points, to just 41 percent, on that question among independents since last month’s poll.

So what’s keeping him afloat? The, er … economy:

According to the survey, 39 percent of registered voters say the country is on the right track, versus 55 percent who say it’s on the wrong track.

That right-track number is a 7-point increase from August, and it’s the highest percentage on this question since Sept. 2009.

Forty-two percent of voters also believe the economy will improve in the next 12 months, which is a 6-point jump from August, and a 15-point rise from July.

What’s more, 47 percent of registered voters approve of the president’s handling of the economy – up 3 points from last month. Obama’s overall job-approval rating stands at 50 percent for the first time since March.

He’s now tied with Romney on the economy at 43. Note the trendline here too:

I have no idea how to explain that surge in optimism except to treat it as a gift to O from Bill Clinton, whose speech in defense of Dem-onomics is probably the single biggest thing driving Obama’s convention bounce. As we know from Gallup, though, the bounce is already fading, so unless we get a surprisingly rosy jobs report next month, expect this number to deflate by the time of the next (and final) WSJ/NBC poll. Exit quotation from the WSJ write-up: “At the same time, Mr. Romney leads the president by 3 percentage points among voters who rate themselves highly interested in the race, an advantage that could make a difference in who casts ballots on Election Day.”

Update: Almost forgot: A few readers e-mailed about this WaPo poll of Virginia today showing Obama up by eight(!) among likely voters — based on a sample of D+9. In 2008 on election day, it was only D+6; Obama ended up winning the state by six points. He’s ahead there right now, but most other recent polls have him up five points, not eight.


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“Trend???”

Yep, I was wrong.
gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012 at 9:39 PM

And no you were not “wrong” …you LIED. That liberal thinking does not fly here. NO more than a thug’s bank robbery is a mistake. You lied and you knew it . You got caught. Just as you were caught here pretending people think things are getting better. You’ve been busted ….AGAIN.

CW on September 18, 2012 at 9:42 PM

*The fish approaches the lure, bumps it, and says, “Nope, not bitin’ that one.” Then swims away.*

predator on September 18, 2012 at 9:32 PM

Lol! I’ll get better at this, I promise. A different nom would help. I know you like me don’t have one, so I won’t even ask.

Bmore on September 18, 2012 at 9:43 PM

GrannyDee on September 18, 2012 at 9:07 PM

Good article. Until democratics think that Republicans cheat the vote as much as they do, they will block all reforms to prevent it.

I have to wonder if that is the only solution, -to cheat as much as democratics do. It conflicts with my respect for the Constitution and the rule of law, but the end objective is to see that the voting process is an honest one.

slickwillie2001 on September 18, 2012 at 9:33 PM

After I read that article, I was sickened by how easy it is to commit voter fraud, and I finally understood why ACORN was so heavily involved in Cuyahoga County.

Libs are vile, disgusting people.

GrannyDee on September 18, 2012 at 9:43 PM

“I noticed an the other thread this link

http://www.businessinsider.com/mitt-romneys-october-surprise-is-going-to-be-legendary-2012-9

was posted and Gumby ignored it like a good little troll.”

I read it. I also remember all the talk about this devastating “shock and awe” ad blitz that would destroy Obama after the GOP convention when Romney could use his money. What did we get? A few soft, passive ads that barely leave a mark.

But, hey, keep hoping for a moment that will never come.

Mitt can’t even be bothered to get out of bed and go to a swing state for a campaign appearance.

He’s never going to be on offense in this campaign. IMO, he must have thought he would cruise to victory with little to no effort.

gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012 at 9:44 PM

So Romney isn’t spending his ad money and he’s not making campaign appearances.

gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012 at 9:03 PM

That’s strange Romney was just in Ohio yesterday….and just recently in California.

CW on September 18, 2012 at 9:44 PM

Mitt can’t even be bothered to get out of bed and go to a swing state for a campaign appearance.

gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012 at 9:44 PM

That’s strange Romney was just in Ohio yesterday….and just recently in California.

CW on September 18, 2012 at 9:44 PM

You’re such a liar.

CW on September 18, 2012 at 9:45 PM

In fact Romney was just in Powell Ohio about 15 minutes from my house a 2-3 weeks ago. Gumby you’re clueless.

CW on September 18, 2012 at 9:47 PM

“Here in New England, Romney has been flooding Boston and New Hampshire and Maine and Vermont TV with ads.

So has O’bamna.

In fact, since last month, O’bamna has been buying TV ad time like crazy on the major Boston TV stations. Especially during high-revenue dinner time, where he’s been running ads for something like 40 nights straight.”

Obama has spent 19 million on ads on cable tv.

Mitt has spent 2 million on ads on cable tv.

Romney is doing the bare minimum, while Obama is actually trying to win.

gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012 at 9:47 PM

if Romney wins, I will send every one of you who reads this 10 dollars in cash.

daveyandgoliath on September 18, 2012 at 9:07 PM

Smells like Teen Spirit in here.

Let us know when Soros and Axelrod front you the money, and we’ll take it from there.

Del Dolemonte on September 18, 2012 at 9:47 PM

CW on September 18, 2012 at 9:45 PM

We should probably cut him some slack, CW. Its all he’s got and he’s obviously desperate to try to make us believe his delusions. Its pitiful, really.

thatsafactjack on September 18, 2012 at 9:48 PM

Hmmm on September 10th Romney was in Mansfield Ohio as well

,,,,hmmmm.

CW on September 18, 2012 at 9:49 PM

daveyandgoliath on September 18, 2012 at 9:13 PM

Thanks for admitting your lie. That wasn’t so hard, was it?

F+

First time I’ve ever given that grade out.

Del Dolemonte on September 18, 2012 at 9:50 PM

gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012 at 9:48 PM

So that’s what you do when your lying is laid out for all to see?

You’re a liar and a bad one at that.

CW on September 18, 2012 at 9:50 PM

So Romney isn’t spending his ad money and he’s not making campaign appearances.

gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012 at 9:03 PM

That’s strange Romney was just in Ohio yesterday….and just recently in California.

CW on September 18, 2012 at 9:44 PM

With all the psychotropic drugs on the market, you’d think Gumdrop would avail itself of medication so he/she/it would be snapped back into reality.

GrannyDee on September 18, 2012 at 9:51 PM

gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012 at 9:48 PM

Its surprising that you don’t even understand the article that you’re linking. York’s point is that Romney isn’t even breaking a sweat yet, and the Democrats are running as hard as they can to keep up… and failing.

thatsafactjack on September 18, 2012 at 9:51 PM

Delusional Democrats..no better example here:

Feb 2010
Pelosi predicts continued Democratic majority in House

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) insisted Sunday that the Democratic Party will retain a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2010 midterm elections. She said past swings in power during midterms have been the result of unpreparedness, and the Democrats are aware of challenges and are ready to contest every race.

Fastforward 2012:

Pelosi’s interview with Candy Crowley yesterday on CNN:

Refusing to entertain the possibility that Mitt Romney will win the upcoming election, Pelosi even asserted that “everybody knows” he is going to lose.

“Oh, Mitt Romney is not going to be president of the United States,” she told Crowley. “I think everybody knows that.”

Do we need any other barometer?…Its actually hilarious how out of touch with reality she is

LaRepublican on September 18, 2012 at 9:52 PM

Okay, this is a crap poll, and I’m going to explain why.

In this case, the magic number is 42%

Look at the party breakdown at the poll, look at it holistically. The fact that it’s D+5 is pointless, because democrats make up 42% of the sample. This is a much larger portion of the electorate than in 2008, and its made at the expense of independents.

This is latest trick pollsters have been using to fluff Obama’s numbers, without making the overall poll look infeasible. In short, Romney could have a 20% lead among independents, and Obama still might lead narrowly. When only 16% of a poll is made up of independents, winning independents amount to very very little.

Case in point.

According to this poll, 43% of respondents approve of Obama’s handling of the Economy. However, 42% of the respondents are democrats, and you can assume that at least 90% will say they approve of Obama’s handling no matter what. If you look at the numbers with that in mind, it’s quite clear that Obama’s getting MURDERED on his handling of the economy. It means that almost no independents or republicans approved of Obama’s economic stewardship, cause if they had his numbers would’ve been a lot higher than that.

This is why you cannot pay very close attention to polls right now. There is no way, whatsoever, that only 16% of voters are going to independents, nor is there anyway that democrats are going to make up 42% of the vote.

Yes, at a glance it may only look like it’s D+5, but in reality that number is entirely misleading.

WolvenOne on September 18, 2012 at 9:52 PM

Mitt can’t even be bothered to get out of bed and go to a swing state for a campaign appearance.

gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012

Victory Rally With Mitt Romney At Lake Erie College In Painesville, Ohio On Friday, September 14, 2012

CW on September 18, 2012 at 9:53 PM

With all the psychotropic drugs on the market, you’d think Gumdrop would avail itself of medication so he/she/it would be snapped back into reality.

GrannyDee on September 18, 2012 at 9:51 PM

He thinks he can come here and mix a little truth with a lot of lies. Ain’t gonna happen.

CW on September 18, 2012 at 9:53 PM

Mitt can’t even be bothered to get out of bed and go to a swing state for a campaign appearance.

gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012

Victory Rally With Mitt Romney At Lake Erie College In Painesville, Ohio On Friday, September 14, 2012

CW on September 18, 2012 at 9:53 PM

Gumby now that we know what you are…I gotta go. ES SB.

CW on September 18, 2012 at 9:54 PM

“Gumby less than 40 percent think things are getting better.”

Which is nearly 10% more than the month before.

daveyandgoliath on September 18, 2012 at 9:35 PM

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Bill McInturff (R). Sept. 12-16, 2012. N=900 registered voters nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.3.

“Do you think the U.S. economy is recovering or is not recovering?”

51% say yes.

Same number as in June.

http://pollingreport.com/consumer2.htm

G-

Del Dolemonte on September 18, 2012 at 9:55 PM

I vary the responses, sometimes I’m white, sometimes I’m black, sometimes a man, sometimes a woman. Every time I tell them I’m voting for Obama.

Screw the bastards.

BacaDog on September 18, 2012 at 8:16 PM

..I am rolling on the floor here at the though of your answering the questions in a lisping, quavering falsetto voice masking your rumbling stevedore brogue.

:-D

The War Planner on September 18, 2012 at 9:56 PM

“Trend???”

Yep, I was wrong. As I said earlier, it’s interesting that the hated pollsters had no problem showing Bush in the lead and they weren’t fans of W by any stretch. Why weren’t they “cooking” the polls then?

I suppose Obama could be out at a hurricane site earlier in the day and then come for the first debate unprepared and get his a** kicked like Bush did, which made the election a dead heat.

daveyandgoliath on September 18, 2012 at 9:39 PM

Pants on Fire!

Del Dolemonte on September 18, 2012 at 9:57 PM

Gumbo, huh?

What’s next? Tommyrot?

Lanceman on September 18, 2012 at 9:58 PM

Yes, at a glance it may only look like it’s D+5, but in reality that number is entirely misleading.

WolvenOne on September 18, 2012 at 9:52 PM

..yeppers! You caught it! The latest gimmick is to hide the “I”s who Romney is winning.

The War Planner on September 18, 2012 at 9:59 PM

This poll is old, why are they releasing it today???

MGardner on September 18, 2012 at 10:01 PM

“Gumby less than 40 percent think things are getting better.”

Which is nearly 10% more than the month before.

daveyandgoliath on September 18, 2012 at 9:35 PM

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Bill McInturff (R). Sept. 12-16, 2012. N=900 registered voters nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.3.

“Do you think the U.S. economy is recovering or is not recovering?”

51% say yes.

Same number as in June.”

I was referring to the “are you better off” question in the NBC/WSJ poll. There was a significant shift in the “yes” total from the previous poll.

gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012 at 10:03 PM

Romney is doing the bare minimum, while Obama is actually trying to win.

gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012 at 9:47 PM

Obama is doing what Obama does best, spend money he doesn’t have.

Just wait til October you fool, you won’t know what hit you.

ccrosby on September 18, 2012 at 10:07 PM

So Romney isn’t spending his ad money and he’s not making campaign appearances.

daveyandgoliath on September 18, 2012 at 9:03 PM

Oh, please don’t insult our intelligence.

On Friday 9/14, Romney made campaign appearances in NYC and Ohio.

On Saturday, 9/15, he took a day off.

On Sunday 9/16 he made a campaign appearance in Colorado (in Pueblo)

Yesterday, 9/17, he made a campaign speech in LA

And he made a campaign appearance this morning in Salt Lake City.

And tomorrow, he has campaign appearances in Dallas (8:40 AM) and Miami (6:30 PM)

Thursday? 2 more appearances in Florida (1:30 PM and 6:00 PM)

Friday: Las Vegas.

He’s then taking a few days off. But will be making yet another campaign appearance in DC next Thursday.

http://www.politico.com/2012-election/calendar/mitt-romney/?date=2012-09-18

P-

Del Dolemonte on September 18, 2012 at 10:10 PM

This poll is old, why are they releasing it today???

MGardner on September 18, 2012 at 10:01 PM

They don’t want sleazy Eric Holder’s Just-Us Department to sue them?

The Wall Street Journal needs to disassociate itself from in-the-tank for Zero’s whore NBC, and pronto. As a financial newspaper it’s hurting their credibility where their numerical analysis needs to be clearly separable from NBC/MSLSD / Angria Mitchell / Prissy Chrissy Matthews and other modern day Walter Duranty’s pimping the Politburo.

viking01 on September 18, 2012 at 10:10 PM

gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012 at 10:03 PM

Say gumby or pokey which ever one of you is responsible for that nom. You wouldn’t by chance be interested in selling me your nom would you?

Bmore on September 18, 2012 at 10:11 PM

“Obama is doing what Obama does best, spend money he doesn’t have.

Just wait til October you fool, you won’t know what hit you.”

Maybe. Or maybe the RCP average will be right once again, and all you had to do was look at the polls and you would have known exactly what was going to happen.

There are very few upsets in politics, and hardly any in Presidential elections.

gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012 at 10:13 PM

Hahahahaha hahhaha cough cough hahahahaha hahahahaha

Uhm wait a sec hahahahaha I think hahahaha

Conservative4ev on September 18, 2012 at 10:14 PM

There are very few upsets in politics, and hardly any in Presidential elections.

gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012 at 10:13 PM

Seriously? I’ll have to call on my fellow HA commenters for stats this one…

1980 rings a bell…

ccrosby on September 18, 2012 at 10:16 PM

Obama has spent 19 million on ads on cable tv.

Mitt has spent 2 million on ads on cable tv.

Romney is doing the bare minimum, while Obama is actually trying to win.

daveyandgoliath on September 18, 2012 at 9:47 PM

Why would the incumbent (who according to you is winning handily) be spending 10 times as much as the challenger who is in a margin of error tie with him even in oversampled “poles”?

You’re obviously too dense to figure that out.

D + G-

Del Dolemonte on September 18, 2012 at 10:17 PM

There are very few upsets in politics, and hardly any in Presidential elections.

gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012 at 10:13 PM

So, how about it? Sell me your nom. I’ll make you proud. I could be one heII of a troll. You kinda suck at it. Lend it to me and I show you how it should be done. I promise, I’ll give it right back. You wanna know why? Come on, you can trust me. I promise.

Bmore on September 18, 2012 at 10:18 PM

Maybe. Or maybe the RCP average will be right once again, and all you had to do was look at the polls and you would have known exactly what was going to happen.

There are very few upsets in politics, and hardly any in Presidential elections.

gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012 at 10:13 PM

I agree, I would use RCP average…

Obama up by 3 and Romney seems to be closing in…

Just looking at the two most recent polls Rassmussen and Gallup…

This NBC one is a few days old…

MGardner on September 18, 2012 at 10:19 PM

This came across my Twitter feed this morning and all I could make out was that it was a robo-poll in PA:

Jeff Emanuel ‏@jeffemanuel
Wow | Robopoll records silence as support for Obama http://youtu.be/C__xOdPPZFo via @youtube

jffree1 on September 18, 2012 at 10:19 PM

http://washingtonexaminer.com/york-romney-lopes-along-as-dems-run-for-their-lives/article/2508277

daveyandgoliath on September 18, 2012 at 9:48 PM

When a Democrat is reduced to citing Byron York (who has done as much as anyone in exposing Holder’s Fast and Furious debacle) you know they are Desperate.

B+

Del Dolemonte on September 18, 2012 at 10:19 PM

So, what do you say gumby, pokey? gumby, pokey?…………………….

Bmore on September 18, 2012 at 10:24 PM

Bmore on September 18, 2012 at 10:18 PM

Once again your repertoire amazes me. Nice choice.

ccrosby on September 18, 2012 at 10:25 PM

If the RCP average is 2 points or less on election day it’s anyone’s race…

My gut still tells me Romney starts to pull away after the first debate…

MGardner on September 18, 2012 at 10:25 PM

There are very few upsets in politics, and hardly any in Presidential elections.

daveyandgoliath on September 18, 2012 at 10:13 PM

That’s because you weren’t even born when the 1980 or 1992 elections happened.

But your real problem? Unlike every previous Presidential election in recent history, the people doing nearly all of the “poles” are Hardcore O’bamna Donors. They were never in the tank like this for previous Democrats, not even Bill Clinton.

As a result, unlike every recent Presidential election, the “poles” have deliberately contained oversamples, and also leading questions (also known as Push Polling) to get the results they desire.

Wise up, kid. You’re not very good at this number crunching.

Del Dolemonte on September 18, 2012 at 10:26 PM

Once again your repertoire amazes me. Nice choice.

ccrosby on September 18, 2012 at 10:25 PM

How we doing ccrosby? Don’t happen to have an extra nom laying around you could part with do ya? ; )

Bmore on September 18, 2012 at 10:27 PM

“There are very few upsets in politics, and hardly any in Presidential elections.

gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012 at 10:13 PM

Seriously? I’ll have to call on my fellow HA commenters for stats this one…

1980 rings a bell…

ccrosby on September 18, 2012 at 10:16 PM”

http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/debunking-a-myth-reagan-was-leading-carter-long-before-that-final-october-debate/

gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012 at 10:28 PM

How we doing ccrosby? Don’t happen to have an extra nom laying around you could part with do ya? ; )

Bmore on September 18, 2012 at 10:27 PM

I’m still wondering why you want either gumby or pokey?

When’s there’s – Witchypoo, or Speed Racer, or, jeez, I’m too old to remember any more.

ccrosby on September 18, 2012 at 10:31 PM

I’ll give you top dollar gumby, I’ll bonus you pokey. What do you say. I promise.

Bmore on September 18, 2012 at 10:32 PM

I’ll triple what 0 is paying plus I’ll return it in two weeks time. You could learn a lot from me.

Bmore on September 18, 2012 at 10:33 PM

How we doing ccrosby? Don’t happen to have an extra nom laying around you could part with do ya? ; )

Bmore on September 18, 2012 at 10:27 PM

..Lord BMore, you need to drop out of sight? You running from de law? An ex? The goodly reps from the law offices of Binder & Binder?

Why this desperate plea for an alias?

The War Planner on September 18, 2012 at 10:36 PM

..or is Ed repo’ing your current ID for non-payment of HG dues?

The War Planner on September 18, 2012 at 10:37 PM

..or is Ed repo’ing your current ID for non-payment of HG dues?

The War Planner on September 18, 2012 at 10:37 PM

Dues? Nobody told me about any dues! Where would my dues go?

Does Ed or Allah need a vacay?

ccrosby on September 18, 2012 at 10:41 PM

Why this desperate plea for an alias?

The War Planner on September 18, 2012 at 10:36 PM

Well WP, everyone, well many folks here at HA are complaining about the low quality of the trolls. I have to agree, 5th tier at best. So I was thinking if I had a new nom, I could troll. I think knowing the site and Conservatism as I do, I could really be good at it. gumby and pokey suck at it. I’m not sure which one sucks worse. Say, WP, you don’t happen to have an extra nom laying around do ya?

Bmore on September 18, 2012 at 10:44 PM

OT, does anyone remember TonyN737? I have not seen him around in many many months, does anyony know what happened. I couldn’t imagine a ban. Just curious. He was a good hot air poster.

D-fusit on September 18, 2012 at 10:45 PM

BTW, I just did the math.

Using this model, with so few independents, Romney would have to win roughly 65% of all Independents, just to tie.

This is just how bad this polls methodology is. It’s statistically almost impossible for him to come out ahead the way this poll is set up.

WolvenOne on September 18, 2012 at 10:45 PM

“That’s because you weren’t even born when the 1980 or 1992 elections happened.”

Sure was, and I notice you don’t bother to counter the info that Reagan was leading Carter at this point in 1980.

And without the Reagan/Carter 1980 election example, you guys have zero argument to make for a Romney win.

gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012 at 10:45 PM

gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012 at 10:45 PM

No offense, but you really aren’t very good at this. Come on, what do say? Let me show you how its done.

Bmore on September 18, 2012 at 10:49 PM

And without the Reagan/Carter 1980 election example, you guys have zero argument to make for a Romney win.

gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012 at 10:45

PM

I think you maybe delusional…

The two most recent polls if you average those have Romney ahead…

Rassmussen and Gallup…

MGardner on September 18, 2012 at 10:49 PM

I notice you don’t bother to counter the info that Reagan was leading Carter at this point in 1980.

daveyandgoliath on September 18, 2012 at 10:45 PM

Not according to Gallup. They were tied 39-39 on September 15, 1980.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/154559/US-Presidential-Election-Center.aspx?ref=interactive

F-

But do keep coming back for more abuse! I crunch stats for a living, unlike yourself.

Del Dolemonte on September 18, 2012 at 10:50 PM

Who’d believe a “poll” from the whores at NBC?

GarandFan on September 18, 2012 at 10:50 PM

Sorry gumby or pokey which ever. Should have read. Come on, what do you say?

Bmore on September 18, 2012 at 10:50 PM

OT, does anyone remember TonyN737? I have not seen him around in many many months, does anyony know what happened. I couldn’t imagine a ban. Just curious. He was a good hot air poster.

D-fusit on September 18, 2012 at 10:45 PM

Yes, I remember him. He was a good guy and a thoughtful commenter. I hope he’s okay!

Mary in LA on September 18, 2012 at 10:52 PM

OT, does anyone remember TonyN737? I have not seen him around in many many months, does anyony know what happened. I couldn’t imagine a ban. Just curious. He was a good hot air poster.

D-fusit on September 18, 2012 at 10:45 PM

Saw him/her a few weeks ago.

JPeterman on September 18, 2012 at 10:52 PM

“I notice you don’t bother to counter the info that Reagan was leading Carter at this point in 1980.

daveyandgoliath on September 18, 2012 at 10:45 PM

Not according to Gallup. They were tied 39-39 on September 15, 1980.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/154559/US-Presidential-Election-Center.aspx?ref=interactive

F-

But do keep coming back for more abuse! I crunch stats for a living, unlike yourself.

Del Dolemonte on September 18, 2012 at 10:50 PM”

So you want to focus on one single poll that was tied when the “poll of polls” showed Reagan ahead of Carter at this point?!?! Without the false “Reagan came from behind at the end” meme, the “romney can still win” people have nothing to back up their belief.

gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012 at 10:53 PM

JPeterman on September 18, 2012 at 10:52 PM

Thanks, I miss reading his take on things. I loved how the little 737′s knew the names of Medal of Honor recipients but not pop stars. Awesome parent that I admire.

D-fusit on September 18, 2012 at 10:59 PM

So Del has tucked his tail between his legs and scurried away.

It’s over, Del. Without the false Reagan/Carter storyline to fall back on, there isn’t one shred of evidence that Romney can win.

F-

gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012 at 11:07 PM

Thanks, I miss reading his take on things. I loved how the little 737′s knew the names of Medal of Honor recipients but not pop stars. Awesome parent that I admire.

D-fusit on September 18, 2012 at 10:59 PM

You are welcome. I also saw him/her post at another blog within the past couple of weeks too.

JPeterman on September 18, 2012 at 11:10 PM

“Here in New England, Romney has been flooding Boston and New Hampshire and Maine and Vermont TV with ads.

So has O’bamna.

In fact, since last month, O’bamna has been buying TV ad time like crazy on the major Boston TV stations. Especially during high-revenue dinner time, where he’s been running ads for something like 40 nights straight.”

Obama has spent 19 million on ads on cable tv.

Mitt has spent 2 million on ads on cable tv.

Romney is doing the bare minimum, while Obama is actually trying to win.

gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012 at 9:47 PM

The fact that Obama is having to spend money in Boston means he is losing.

Kevin71 on September 18, 2012 at 11:16 PM

So you want to focus on one single poll that was tied when the “poll of polls” showed Reagan ahead of Carter at this point?!?! Without the false “Reagan came from behind at the end” meme, the “romney can still win” people have nothing to back up their belief.

gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012 at 10:53 PM

Why not? You focus on the crap polls being put out today?

We all know a poll today will be meaningless in November.

Prepare for October…

ccrosby on September 18, 2012 at 11:17 PM

So Del has tucked his tail between his legs and scurried away.

gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012 at 11:07 PM

Look at the time of day before you smirk. It’s after 11:00PM on the East Coast, and since Del has a real job to go to tomorrow, he probably went to bed like a responsible person.

I’m on the West Coast. I have a real job to go to tomorrow, too.

What’s your excuse?

Mary in LA on September 18, 2012 at 11:18 PM

So we’ve got humbot, and melting bunny. Can we have an appropriate video assaisonnement for any posts that deal with voter polls?

Like maybe someone being clubbed to death with a wiffle bat?

somewhatconcerned on September 18, 2012 at 11:21 PM

Ah Jeez, Greta (yeah I’m catching up) and she’s got Rick Klein on as a “Journalist” again!

If this is going to happen everynight between now & election, see ya later Greta…

ccrosby on September 18, 2012 at 11:22 PM

“Look at the time of day before you smirk. It’s after 11:00PM on the East Coast, and since Del has a real job to go to tomorrow, he probably went to bed like a responsible person.”

Could be.

Or it could be that since he was banking on the Reagan vs Carter election as some comparison to this election, and the article I posted disproved that argument, he decided to give up.

All anyone could post for the last few months was that Reagan trailed Carter until the last moment. AND THAT IS 100% FALSE. A candidate that trails now loses in Nov.

gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012 at 11:30 PM

Or it could be that since he was banking on the Reagan vs Carter election as some comparison to this election, and the article I posted disproved that argument, he decided to give up.

All anyone could post for the last few months was that Reagan trailed Carter until the last moment. AND THAT IS 100% FALSE. A candidate that trails now loses in Nov.

gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012 at 11:30 PM

Ruh roh Del, she’s got you pegged…
/

ccrosby on September 18, 2012 at 11:45 PM

So Del has tucked his tail between his legs and scurried away.

gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012 at 11:07 PM

Lol!!! Lol!!! Lol!!! You are one funny pathetic little troll. Both of you. Funny!

Bmore on September 18, 2012 at 11:47 PM

All anyone could post for the last few months was that Reagan trailed Carter until the last moment. AND THAT IS 100% FALSE. A candidate that trails now loses in Nov.

gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012 at 11:30 PM

Funnier still!!! Still pathetic! Lol!!!

Bmore on September 18, 2012 at 11:48 PM

Well its late so I gues I’d better just tail between his legs and scurry away. gumby or pokey one, scares me. Funny!!!

Bmore on September 18, 2012 at 11:49 PM

Sorry gumby or pokey either one. You got me laughing so hard I can harly type. Should have read…….oh heII, never mind. Funny!

Bmore on September 18, 2012 at 11:50 PM

Bmore on September 18, 2012 at 11:50 PM

Hey! You said you take either gumby or pokey…

Which one would you really rather have, and why?

And “because they’re stupid and you would not have to do anything meaningful” is not an acceptable answer.

ccrosby on September 18, 2012 at 11:57 PM

Does Ed or Allah need a vacay?

ccrosby on September 18, 2012 at 10:41 PM

..AP does.

The War Planner on September 19, 2012 at 12:03 AM

I don’t think there has ever been a 42% Democrat electorate on Election Day since it has been measured.

But the polls may not be doing it intentionally. Pew Research reports response rates – the % of people contacted who agree to be surveyed – is down to only 9% now from 39% in 1997 and over 75% in the ’80s when there were only a few polling outfits.

Not only does that present a statistical problem for random polling, but it seems quite likely that conservatives and Tea Party voters may disproportionately refuse to be surveyed out of disgust/mistrust with media. Hence the samples skew Democratic.

It happened with the exit polling in 2004. They showed a strong Kerry win, but were completely wrong. It was because so many Bush voters declined to speak to the interviewers.

Adjoran on September 19, 2012 at 1:25 AM

Does Ed or Allah need a vacay?

ccrosby on September 18, 2012 at 10:41 PM

..AP does.

The War Planner on September 19, 2012 at 12:03 AM

But he was on a mystery vacay not long ago :)….

jimver on September 19, 2012 at 1:59 AM

Bmore on September 18, 2012 at 11:50 PM

Hey! You said you take either gumby or pokey…

Which one would you really rather have, and why?

And “because they’re stupid and you would not have to do anything meaningful” is not an acceptable answer.

ccrosby on September 18, 2012 at 11:57 PM

Gumby is the other half of pokey’s brain,….why would you want to separate them….even as a whole that one is not too bright….

jimver on September 19, 2012 at 2:11 AM

Gumby is the other half of pokey’s brain,….why would you want to separate them….even as a whole that one is not too bright….

jimver on September 19, 2012 at 2:11 AM

Would that operation be a gumbotomy?

:-)

Nighty-night, all!

Mary in LA on September 19, 2012 at 2:16 AM

Gumby is the other half of pokey’s brain,….why would you want to separate them….even as a whole that one is not too bright….

jimver on September 19, 2012 at 2:11 AM

Would that operation be a gumbotomy?

:-)

Nighty-night, all!

Mary in LA on September 19, 2012 at 2:16 AM

That would be correct…but then I think that that entity (gumbyandpokey) already had a lobotomy…another one would be just devastating…on the bright side though, maybe it won’t lie anymore…

jimver on September 19, 2012 at 2:24 AM

So the pollsters oversample D’s no matter what. If their candidate wins, no harm no foul. If he loses, oh well. Oops we oversampled!

long_cat on September 19, 2012 at 2:55 AM

I just keep thinking about how badly Carter was going to beat Reagan in 1980. I’m not worried. We’re going to win this thing.

SueM on September 19, 2012 at 5:21 AM

gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012 at 9:48 PM

funny i just got sun burnt as all hades at a Mitt Romney / Paul Ryan rally here in jacksonville fl. matter of fact i think im still peeling a bit on my back .

katee bayer on September 19, 2012 at 7:42 AM

It conflicts with my respect for the Constitution and the rule of law, but the end objective is to see that the voting process is an honest one.

slickwillie2001 on September 18, 2012 at 9:33 PM

Don’t go Liberal on us! Liberals #1 justification “The end justifies the means” and #2 justification “We had good intentions”.
The road to H@ll is built with these, brick by brick.

IowaWoman on September 19, 2012 at 8:04 AM

D+5 and only 16I? worthless poll.

IowaWoman on September 19, 2012 at 8:06 AM

The sample: 42D/37R/16I, or D+5. That’s not bad for an outfit that’s had some truly dreadful samples so far this year, but it’s still a few points bluer than election day is likely to be. The poll was conducted from September 12 to 16, too, which means it’s missed the last few days of Obama’s disappearing bounce.

42+37+16 = 95. Who are the other 5% in the sample? Democrats afraid to declare themselves Democrats, or even Independents? Or are these 5% of people who can’t define themselves politically also the 5% undecided about the candidates, who won’t bother to vote?

But there’s no way the total electorate will be 42% Democrat–both parties will probably get somewhere in the mid-30′s, with about 30% of Independents.

Other recent polls have shown that partisan voters overwhelmingly vote for their party’s candidate (Democrats for Obama, Republicans for Romney) by over 90%.

Even though AP didn’t post internals, if Obama got 42% from Democrats and 50% overall, he got 8% from Indies and unknown. If Romney got 37% from Republicans and 45% overall, he also got 8% from Indies and unknown. So that the Indie vote is essentially tied in this poll.

If we try to predict the race based on this one poll, with Indies tied, whichever party turns out the partisan “base” better will win. Obviously, this is only a single poll with its margin of error in addition to the sample bias, but this poll essentially shows a tie, plus or minus 1 or 2 points either way.

Steve Z on September 19, 2012 at 9:07 AM

I know that once again I risk being called a “trucon” and vilified, but Romney is living up to every one of my expectations.

I support Romney as being enormously better than the alternative (Obama) and want Romney to win. I did not support Romney in the primary, for a number of reasons, but one of the reasons is that I fled that b/c Romney was not comfortable with conservative thought, he would be unable to make a compelling case for his candidacy. I also argued regularly that Romney, while an improved candidate, was still a lackluster candidate who would not do well against Obama. I argued that Rommey’s campaign would consist solely of him hoping that Obama loses rather than Romney trying to win.

I was very surprised by his pick of Ryan and thought that might bode well. But Romney has returned to form. Too timid, too cautious, and unable to provide anyone with a positive reason for his candidacy. He has reverted to going into hiding and hoping that Obama loses instead of Romney trying to win.

In a race we should be winning easily, the odds are against us winning at all. Those who pushed Romney as the “best” candidate because he appealed to moderates – please explain your arguments to me again. I understand that we had a lousy pool of candidates to pick from in the primary – but a big part of that was the early support for Romney by about 1/3 of the party, leaving the remainder to fight for the conservative vote. In other words, the moderates forced the conservatives to eat each other, leaving a moderate as the winner. How is that working exactly?

I’m not saying that we need a fire and brimstone conservative as a candidate, but the idea that Romney was “the best candidate” is so dreadfully wrong, I expect some apologies from the crowd that vilified anyone who didn’t believe that Romney could pull this off. Romney may still get the win, but even if he does, it will be because Obama lost due to the economy – not because people want Romney. And, it will be much, much closer than it should have been.

All things that could have been avoided if the super smart people who always tut-tut conservatives within the republican party weren’t so damn arrogant all of the time and instead THEY compromised once in awhile.

Hell, at this point McCain ran a better campaign than Romney is running. And that was during “hope and change” season. I think Dole’s campaign had more excitement and charisma.

Monkeytoe on September 19, 2012 at 9:22 AM

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