Bounce over: Obama’s lead in Gallup tracker down to one — among registered voters

posted at 4:01 pm on September 18, 2012 by Allahpundit

You guys are poll-savvy enough by now to know that samples of likely voters always skew a bit more Republican than samples of registereds, so what we’re looking at here is a de facto tie race at worst. Rasmussen has it 47/45 for Romney today; Gallup’s sample, screened for likelies, would probably be right in line with that.

Here’s what a textbook “bounce” looks like on a graph:

No way to know if O would have deflated that quickly under normal circumstances or if his inexcusable negligence in failing to provide security for the Benghazi consulate blunted his momentum, but that’s where we are right now. More from Rick Wilson, who argues that there is indeed a campaign that’s in trouble — but it ain’t Romney’s:

Of the dozen or so Romney gaffes in the primary and beyond, each has been greeted by a media more intent on declaring it to be the fatal moment. Each time, Romney grinds along, pushing through and moving forward…

Barack Obama is running against Mitt Romney, and against a domestic economy in almost existential peril and from an Arab world sinking into chaos and darkness from Algiers to Aleppo, and from two of the world’s economic superpowers about to start a hot war in the Pacific and from his “good war” in Afghanistan warming up to become a genocide at the hands of the Taliban as American troops inevitably withdraw, their decade of sacrifice and heroism squandered…

Any one of those examples can break, suddenly and terribly, and end Obama’s campaign tomorrow…

No matter what video of Mitt Romney at a fundraiser emerges, the process stories it generates won’t be a part of Americas cultural memory, much less be decisive in this campaign.

If you doubt whether Wilson’s skepticism about major “gaffes” is warranted, go look at the graph John Sides put together showing how the polls moved after each alleged rhetorical screw-up in the race thus far — Obama’s “you didn’t build that,” Romney’s Libya comments, etc. There’s no movement in response to any of them except for Romney on Libya, and the movement there was towards Romney because Obama’s bounce had already started to fade. The obvious caveat here: Romney’s “47 percent” remarks could be different, either on their own merits (he currently owns a fair chunk of the vote among the lowest-income voters) or because the media will flog them relentlessly in hopes of giving Obama a decisive permanent advantage in the race. No way to tell yet if it’ll work, but we’ll probably have some sense from the daily trackers by Friday. The closest thing I can give you to actual data right now is this, which is highly unscientific — but also interesting.

Exit question: What will these polls look like in three weeks, after Romney starts leveraging his massive cash advantage? Says Business Insider: “The past few weeks of Mediocre Mitt are about to end. He’s got more resources than the Obama campaign, and his ability to find cheap media markets and flex his muscle are just coming to the fore. This, plus a few more bad economic months, and he’s in the White House.”


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Why is Obama going on Letterman who is a sexist pig?

sentinelrules on September 18, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Birds of a Feather…

Kataklysmic on September 18, 2012 at 5:04 PM

Better yet, go to DemocraticUnderground. Ignore those write-ins for Mao, though.

tdpwells on September 18, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Oy. I think if I went there, my monitor would explode.

22044 on September 18, 2012 at 5:04 PM

Forget the polls, early voting has started in NC and the data is rolling in:

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

D (2012/2008/2004): 43.3%/51.4%/48.6%

R(2012/2008/2004): 38.8%/30.2%/37.4%

Huge improvement from 2008 and better than 2004.

In the coming week we will start to see early voter data from places like Michigan and Wisconsin.

http://reed.edu/earlyvoting/calendar/

commodore on September 18, 2012 at 5:05 PM

Does your mom know you go through her dirty laundry?

RovesChins on September 18, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Your material dovetails nicely with all the fake Christians up in here. Turn it down a notch maybe because you kind of come off like a little league pedo-coach.

tommyhawk on September 18, 2012 at 5:06 PM

Better yet, go to DemocraticUnderground. Ignore those write-ins for Mao, though.

tdpwells on September 18, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Not sure what that is. The most liberal sites that I can tolerate are DailyKos, HuffingtonPost, Politico and Businessinsider. So, I just picked one of the 4.

However, all the liberals mostly think alike, and DailyKos embodies that.

milcus on September 18, 2012 at 5:06 PM

Drudge

Redline

OBAMA ‘I ACTUALLY BELIEVE IN REDISTRIBUTION’

Thanks to MotherJones for introducing the video wars.

D-fusit on September 18, 2012 at 5:06 PM

Forget the polls, early voting has started in NC and the data is rolling in:

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

D (2012/2008/2004): 43.3%/51.4%/48.6%

R(2012/2008/2004): 38.8%/30.2%/37.4%

Huge improvement from 2008 and better than 2004.

In the coming week we will start to see early voter data from places like Michigan and Wisconsin.

http://reed.edu/earlyvoting/calendar/

commodore on September 18, 2012 at 5:05 PM

Dont worry, the day after election day, Gumby will be on here showing a PPP poll of the 2016 election showing Hilary up 65-35 over President Romney. None of this matters to him.

milcus on September 18, 2012 at 5:08 PM

We have got to get better trolls; these ones have worn themselves out and are just babbling incoherently at this point.

D-fusit on September 18, 2012 at 4:54 PM

You should have heard this vile woman that Sean Hannity had on his radio program to “debate” Michelle Malkin. She was actually proud of her anti-Tea Party ad with the theme of “[explitive deleted] This!” and her ad depicting Paul Ryan throwing the elderly off a cliff. But Michelle Malkin nailed it when she pegged the fact that no matter the question it was if you pulled the string and listened to the same message all the commies spout.

I don’t remember them all but two were:

“The massive job loss the month before Obama took office was like a bomb going off and he [the rat-eared bastard] has done a great job all things considered.”

and

“Barak Obama has been hamstrung by Republican obstructionism every step of the way” When it was pointed out that Obama had two years of complete control of Congress, the woman went back to the previous bomb response. Truly, it was not like there was a thought in this woman’s brain that was not a DNC talking point. The HA concern trolls are of the same ilk. Sadly their numbers have been increasing to the point we could put out a Concern Trolls of HA calendar.

Happy Nomad on September 18, 2012 at 5:09 PM

Drudge

Redline

OBAMA ‘I ACTUALLY BELIEVE IN REDISTRIBUTION’

Thanks to MotherJones for introducing the video wars.

D-fusit on September 18, 2012 at 5:06 PM

Obama In 1998: “I Actually Believe In Redistribution”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ge3aGJfDSg4

Chip on September 18, 2012 at 5:09 PM

Pantload filling his pants…

Seven Percent Solution on September 18, 2012 at 5:03 PM

I know, right? I can just hear him at a campaign strategery session: “This is sooo awesome that we got this tape on Mitt. We’re gonna bury him with it.…What? They’re talking about government dependency? Umm…how many said they oppose expanding the welfare state? That many?!…What?… Food stamps? They’re talking about food stamps?!…well we’ll go at the old people…what?…they’re talking about the 700 billion we ripped out of Medicare?…what?…taxes?…they’re pointing out the the top 10% pays 70% of all taxes?! Shit, we can’t have that out there!!! Put a call in to our friends in the media. STAND DOWN! STAND DOWN! STAND DOWN!

Rational Thought on September 18, 2012 at 5:09 PM

Better yet, go to DemocraticUnderground. Ignore those write-ins for Mao, though.

tdpwells on September 18, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Oy. I think if I went there, my monitor would explode.

22044 on September 18, 2012 at 5:04 PM

Go through TOR – ‘cause you never know…

Chip on September 18, 2012 at 5:10 PM

Does your mom know you go through her dirty laundry?

RovesChins on September 18, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Your material dovetails nicely with all the fake Christians up in here. Turn it down a notch maybe because you kind of come off like a little league pedo-coach.

tommyhawk on September 18, 2012 at 5:06 PM

Oh great, so I’m a pedo-coach now. Fantastic.
And, like your Letterman bound messiah, those bitter clingers, clinging to their bibles, you have a problem with Christians, so you will call people pedophiles and fake Christians.
Way to deflect.

RovesChins on September 18, 2012 at 5:10 PM

Your material dovetails nicely with all the fake Christians up in here. Turn it down a notch maybe because you kind of come off like a little league pedo-coach.

tommyhawk on September 18, 2012 at 5:06 PM

Leave Barney Frank alone.

sentinelrules on September 18, 2012 at 5:12 PM

But I get up & go to work as well.
And I never watch Letterman.

22044 on September 18, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Easy there sport! My disdain for those who watch television after 11:30 EDT was as much about the content of a show like Letterman or Leno as it was anything else. These shows are inane outlets for individuals to market their movie/show/campaign than they are anything else.

Happy Nomad on September 18, 2012 at 5:13 PM

Drudge

Redline

OBAMA ‘I ACTUALLY BELIEVE IN REDISTRIBUTION’

Thanks to MotherJones for introducing the video wars.

D-fusit on September 18, 2012 at 5:06 PM

Obama In 1998: “I Actually Believe In Redistribution”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ge3aGJfDSg4

Chip on September 18, 2012 at 5:09 PM

Yes, David Corn. He and his friend, Ellis Hennican, were always good for a laugh. Don’t see much of them nowadays. They must’ve needed knee replacements during the last three and a half years.

RovesChins on September 18, 2012 at 5:14 PM

I still smile at Obama’s number being 47%.

WannabeAnglican on September 18, 2012 at 5:15 PM

Why do people seem to accept the truth of what NBC and the like say about the demographics of their polling samples?

GaltBlvnAtty on September 18, 2012 at 5:16 PM

This will make you smile.

the new aesthetic on September 18, 2012 at 5:18 PM

Easy there sport! My disdain for those who watch television after 11:30 EDT was as much about the content of a show like Letterman or Leno as it was anything else. These shows are inane outlets for individuals to market their movie/show/campaign than they are anything else.

Happy Nomad on September 18, 2012 at 5:13 PM

Heh. Actually I just watch the monologues & opening bits. Or switch to Nightline if Leno’s a rerun that night. I rarely watch the interviews, unless the guest seems interesting to me (they usually aren’t). I heard that Leno mailed it in with Dennis Miller a few days ago.

22044 on September 18, 2012 at 5:19 PM

This will make you smile.

the new aesthetic on September 18, 2012 at 5:18 PM

I hate that song though! It damaged my brain in 1992, it was overplayed so much!

22044 on September 18, 2012 at 5:21 PM

If you haven’t listened to O’Bonehead pontificating about the joys of wealth redistribution (You Tube via Drudge), you just have follow the link. Check out the libs’ God-like intellectual hero make up some strange word in-between necessitate and resuscitate…twice.

Too funny. The guy is a buffoon, and a leftist.

Jaibones on September 18, 2012 at 5:22 PM

But Yahoo news says these are the “darkest hours” of Romney’s campaign.

Robb on September 18, 2012 at 5:24 PM

I don’t believe HOTAIR reported on it, but yesterday morning the New York Manufacturing numbers cratered to levels not seen since BEFORE the June 2009 *recovery*.

We have a New York Manufacturing index at about -10.5, lowest since April 2009.

That signals even worse jobs numbers ahead of us.

That is not even counting the mass layoff notices that will be sent out to Government Contractor employees just days before the election, thanks to President Obama’s Sequestration.

Varchild on September 18, 2012 at 5:24 PM

Obama can’t win.

Shall I recount the ways?

Charlemagne on September 18, 2012 at 4:05 PM

PLEASE!

P L E A S E !

The War Planner on September 18, 2012 at 5:25 PM

I hate that song though! It damaged my brain in 1992, it was overplayed so much!

22044 on September 18, 2012 at 5:21 PM

Communist.

Her version of that song is perhaps the best thing ever recorded.

lorien1973 on September 18, 2012 at 5:28 PM

Obama can’t win.

Shall I recount the ways?

Charlemagne on September 18, 2012 at 4:05 PM

PLEASE!

P L E A S E !

The War Planner on September 18, 2012 at 5:25 PM

Hmm for some reason this made me think of the SPACE QUEST bad guy that crosses his shoulders, bends over forward, and proclaims,

“You can not win!!”

I’d like to see a version of that on Youtube, “Barack Obama, You Can Not Win!” But, I’m weird that way.

Varchild on September 18, 2012 at 5:29 PM

Woops my bad… SPACE QUEST = SPACE ACE (TYPO)

Varchild on September 18, 2012 at 5:29 PM

lorien1973 on September 18, 2012 at 5:28 PM

Hmmm. No / tag. Not needed, or to each his own?

:D

22044 on September 18, 2012 at 5:31 PM

Woops my bad… SPACE QUEST = SPACE ACE (TYPO)

Varchild on September 18, 2012 at 5:29 PM

At least tommyhawk crawled back under TOTUS.

RovesChins on September 18, 2012 at 5:32 PM

@chucktodd Obama campaign has outspent Romney campaign on cable $18M to $2M (9-1) ratio.

What is Romney doing with his money????????

gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012 at 5:35 PM

This will make you smile.

the new aesthetic on September 18, 2012 at 5:18 PM

It did. Thanks!

Night Owl on September 18, 2012 at 5:35 PM

Please please please please please….

I keep checking Rasmussen – odd how it’s SO different from the other polls. In 2008, when Obama was always ahead at Rasmussen by 4 or more points, and Rasmussen was #1 in accuracy. This time, Rasmussen has had Mittens steadily ahead for the last few months.

LibertyJane on September 18, 2012 at 5:37 PM

O by 10-15.

newtopia on September 18, 2012 at 4:19 PM

Breathtaking.

You do know that O’bamna set a new American record in 2008, when he won 70% of the high school dropout vote?

He’s going for 100% this time because he knows he needs them. So nice to see you’re on board!

Del Dolemonte on September 18, 2012 at 5:38 PM

@chucktodd Obama campaign has outspent Romney campaign on cable $18M to $2M (9-1) ratio.

What is Romney doing with his money????????

gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012 at 5:35 PM

Obama is doing to his campaign what he is doing to the nation. He’s spending money he doesn’t have.

RovesChins on September 18, 2012 at 5:40 PM

The thing is, like Ace pointed out. Even in Russia the actual news still foind a way to get out. Barry’s psychopants in the media can cover for him all they want. But people can get their news from other sources. That being said, to the average voter who isn’t into politics The MFM is probably worth 5 points minimum. I aleays knew the MFM was in the tank. What amazes me is that theuy are so blatant about it. I have never in my entire life witnessed the dereliction of duty like the MFM is displaying. I think more and more people are able ot see through it. But either way, the MFM can’t hide 4.00 per gallon or the price of food, burning embassies, protests, the months of not having a job. The amount of debt. There are so many things that they see in their daily life that the press cannot skew.

Minnfidel on September 18, 2012 at 5:41 PM

We have been hearing about this massive cash advantage for months now and Romney is yet to lead in any meaningful poll. Face it, the presidential election is lost for Romney. The GOP needs to focus on not losing the house.

HotAirLib on September 18, 2012 at 4:27 PM

Please enlighten us with your arcane definition of “meaningful poll”.

While waiting for your hilarious answer, once again here is my lecture on “polling” from last week. The truth will hurt you.

“But, But, Rasmussen is the ONLY “poll” showing Romney with a lead! Why is that?”

Simple.

It is because Rasmussen is the ONLY public opinion surveyor that is not an O’bamna Campaign Donor.

Let’s look at the others.

ABC/WaPo: ABC has been fluffing for O’bamna since 2007, and the WaPo officially endorsed him for pResident in 2008.

C-BS/New York Times: C-BS was busted in 2004 for trying to swing the Presidential Election to the Democrats by using forged documents. Meanwhile, the NY Times had no problems publishing national security secrets to try and bring Bush down. They of course also endorsed O’bamna for president in 2008.

Reuters/Ipsos: Reuters is famous for having been busted for journalstic fraud several years ago, and their tracking “poll” is an online one, so it’s worthless to begin with. Ipsos is French.

NBC/WSJ: NBS’s pro-O’bamna Bias is well-documented.

Gallup: Once the Gold Standard of Public Opinion Polling. However, they started their decline in 1988 when founder George Gallup sold the company; today there are no Gallups even involved with this “poll”. In addition, the New Gallup has been forever tainted by its partnership with CNN, who threw Gallup under the bus in 2007 so they could bring a pro-Hillary “pollster” (ORC) in as their “pollster”.

CNN/ORC: See above. ORC was in fact founded by the world’s biggest Bill and Hillary Clinton Fluffer, a dude named Vinod Gupta. Do a Google photo search on him and you will see plenty of pictures of Viney smiling with a Clinton on each side of his silly grin.

But of course, Rasmussen is the only Biased Poll.

Del Dolemonte on September 18, 2012 at 5:47 PM

@chucktodd Obama campaign has outspent Romney campaign on cable $18M to $2M (9-1) ratio.

What is Romney doing with his money????????

gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012 at 5:35 PM

http://www.businessinsider.com/mitt-romneys-october-surprise-is-going-to-be-legendary-2012-9

milcus on September 18, 2012 at 5:48 PM

None of this will matter at 5:30 when the NBC/Wall St Journal drops it’s bomb-poll on Mitt.

daveyandgoliath on September 18, 2012 at 4:32 PM

Your grammar is atrocious.

F-

Del Dolemonte on September 18, 2012 at 5:49 PM

Yeah, devastating stuff.

strictnein on September 18, 2012 at 4:39 PM

The actual “poll” doesn’t come out until 6:30 PM, so Democrat Appartchik Brian Williams can be the first to share it.

Del Dolemonte on September 18, 2012 at 5:51 PM

Concern Trolls of HA calendar.

Happy Nomad on September 18, 2012 at 5:09 PM

.
I’m up for a C.T.O.D. feature …

(Concern Troll of the Day)

… provided the winner gets the ban hammer. :)

PolAgnostic on September 18, 2012 at 5:53 PM

22044 on September 18, 2012 at 5:31 PM

Nah.

If you don’t love Whitney’s version of I’ll Always Love You; I’m pretty sure that qualifies you as a communist.

It’s a lot like “If you hate the McRib, you’re a communist.”

There are certain signs that just give away your secret! :P

lorien1973 on September 18, 2012 at 5:54 PM

Mitt was awesome on Cavuto. He needs to dismiss the media and make his case. Just do what ol Jack Burton would do. Look the media lapdogs right square in the eye and say “Gimmie your best shot, pal. I can take it.”

Jack_Burton on September 18, 2012 at 4:16 PM

Ha, GREAT post and GREAT username!

Long live Jack Burton!

jaygatz33 on September 18, 2012 at 5:54 PM

You eat your shoes?

I didn’t know food stamps covered footwear.

Bishop on September 18, 2012 at 4:10 PM
their YOUR shoes dude.

t8stlikchkn on September 18, 2012 at 4:11 PM

“If you disagree with someone, try walking a mile in thier shoes.”
tommyhawk: “Then I’m a mile away, and I have your shoes! NOM! NOM! NOM!!!”

Benedict Nelson on September 18, 2012 at 5:56 PM

Employment will continue to suck, big time, and the participation rate can’t go to zero. Unemployment will rise. Obama is history, and the bitter clingers among us can rest easy. Because now we know Romney is a conservative.

I think it’s been a very good week, all in all.

MTF on September 18, 2012 at 6:10 PM

Why is Obama going on Letterman who is a sexist pig?

sentinelrules on September 18, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Wonder if Dave will take him upstairs for some intern nookie. The Palin wig and glasses are waiting.

slickwillie2001 on September 18, 2012 at 6:10 PM

It would be a shame if Romney pulled ahead because you have such a nice polling company.

Wigglesworth on September 18, 2012 at 6:12 PM

Why do people seem to accept the truth of what NBC and the like say about the demographics of their polling samples?

GaltBlvnAtty on September 18, 2012 at 5:16 PM

In my unscientific theory it is a generational and institutional thing. Before Al Gore invented the internet and Ted Turner created cable TV, Americans were essentially limited to three choices and the local newspaper for their information.

We still look to the traditional sources to be honest brokers when they clearly have gone rogue. The CBS fakery of memos “proving” GWB was a coward or the way the MSM glossed over the fact that in 2004 the Democrats elected an American traitor were mere warning shots. In this election, the MSM isn’t even bothering to hide their bias but their polling is reported as if it is some sort of objective measure.

Happy Nomad on September 18, 2012 at 6:15 PM

Mother Jones has not yet released the hidden camera footage of Romney paying someone to mow his yard.

caverduc on September 18, 2012 at 4:17 PM

It gets worse, I understand that Governor Romney did not provide a fixed-income pension for the yard worker.

slickwillie2001 on September 18, 2012 at 6:21 PM

Why stop there, we should conduct a poll of DailyKos kids. We can get a 90-10 poll for Obama. You would love that.

milcus on September 18, 2012 at 4:45 PM

Why not use real kids? You’d probably get more insightful thought than anything that inhabits the DailyKos.

Happy Nomad on September 18, 2012 at 4:48 PM

We could just ask their representative, Daikokuckoo.

slickwillie2001 on September 18, 2012 at 6:22 PM

in 2004 the Democrats elected an American traitor

in 2004 the Democrats elected nominated an American traitor

FIFM

Happy Nomad on September 18, 2012 at 6:22 PM

Wow. I think every Troll on Hot Air has been seen in the last couple of days.

Like stampeding cattle.

kingsjester on September 18, 2012 at 6:25 PM

Where are the NBC results? They cant be good if Gumby hasn’t bragged about them yet.

milcus on September 18, 2012 at 6:26 PM

Where are the NBC results? They cant be good if Gumby hasn’t bragged about them yet.

milcus on September 18, 2012 at 6:26 PM

daveyandgoliath is too dumb to realize that the “poll” actually comes out at 6:30 PM EDT.

In other words, davey lives in Flyover Country.

Del Dolemonte on September 18, 2012 at 6:31 PM

“In other words, davey lives in Flyover Country.”

Wisconsin

gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012 at 6:32 PM

Isn’t there a bit of poetic justice in the fact Jimmy Carter’s grandson gave the conservatives something to rally around?

Tater Salad on September 18, 2012 at 6:37 PM

CNN reporting that Obama is a better job creator than Bush.

This is like the Bureau of Labor statistics saying the average price of a loaf of bread has gone up from $1.38 to $1.40 in the last 4 years.

Spin it baby.

PappyD61 on September 18, 2012 at 6:37 PM

sentinelrules on September 18, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Wonder if Dave will take him upstairs for some intern nookie. The Palin wig and glasses are waiting.

slickwillie2001 on September 18, 2012 at 6:10 PM

..hope they draw the line at the hooker boots.

The War Planner on September 18, 2012 at 6:38 PM

Where are the NBC results? They cant be good if Gumby hasn’t bragged about them yet.

milcus on September 18, 2012 at 6:26 PM

They will be useless with their D +10 sample.

Tater Salad on September 18, 2012 at 6:38 PM

Where are the NBC results? They cant be good if Gumby hasn’t bragged about them yet.

milcus on September 18, 2012 at 6:26 PM

They will be useless with their D +10 sample.

Tater Salad on September 18, 2012 at 6:38 PM

Just found the crosstabs.

O’bamna has a 5 point lead.

But the sample is D+ 5

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/WSJpol0918l.pdf

Del Dolemonte on September 18, 2012 at 6:41 PM

daveyandgoliath is too dumb to realize that the “poll” actually comes out at 6:30 PM EDT.

In other words, davey lives in Flyover Country.

Del Dolemonte on September 18, 2012 at 6:31 PM

Okay, I repeat what I said. It’s now 6:40, where is the troll with his poll that oversampled Democrats by like 19 points?

If you cant get a result that gets a clueless troll excited with a skewed sample, might as well do your job and not skew the poll to present your preference, instead of a snapshot of where the race is at.

milcus on September 18, 2012 at 6:42 PM

Isn’t there a bit of poetic justice in the fact Jimmy Carter’s grandson gave the conservatives something to rally around?

Tater Salad on September 18, 2012 at 6:37 PM

The bastard is saddled with the name Jimmy Carter IV. That he’s had to live his life explaining and defending that is justice enough.

Happy Nomad on September 18, 2012 at 6:42 PM

Ever notice the liberal media always poll over the weekend? Supposedly it skews to the D’s. Rasmussen is always flat to down for Romney on his Monday and Tuesday results which include the previous Sat and Sun.

Tater Salad on September 18, 2012 at 6:46 PM

Ever notice the liberal media always poll over the weekend? Supposedly it skews to the D’s. Rasmussen is always flat to down for Romney on his Monday and Tuesday results which include the previous Sat and Sun.

Tater Salad on September 18, 2012 at 6:46 PM

John Zogby actually admitted on TV that he “polled” from Thursday to Sunday whenever he wanted the results to favor D’s.

Del Dolemonte on September 18, 2012 at 6:52 PM

Ever notice the liberal media always poll over the weekend? Supposedly it skews to the D’s. Rasmussen is always flat to down for Romney on his Monday and Tuesday results which include the previous Sat and Sun.

Tater Salad on September 18, 2012 at 6:46 PM

That accomplishes two objectives. Like you say, weekend polling always seems to skew far more leftward than weeknight polling. Plus, the weekend polling gives the MSM a chance to trumpet the results on Monday morning, when everybody’s paying attention to the news.

Right Mover on September 18, 2012 at 7:02 PM

‘Toon of the Day: Voltaire Voided

M2RB: Tokio Hotel

Resist We Much on September 18, 2012 at 7:18 PM

Just found the crosstabs.

O’bamna has a 5 point lead.

But the sample is D+ 5

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/WSJpol0918l.pdf

Del Dolemonte on September 18, 2012 at 6:41 PM

Obama: 50%
Romney: 44%

STILL USING REGISTERED VOTERS

sentinelrules on September 18, 2012 at 7:18 PM

But the sample is D+ 5

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/WSJpol0918l.pdf

Del Dolemonte on September 18, 2012 at 6:41 PM

..serious question: is the D+5 skew and the RVs [somewhat] additive? I am assuming that both of these factors (+5 D and RVs) combine to put Romney up by about +2?

Kinda funny how that cozies up to the Raz number, don’t it?

The War Planner on September 18, 2012 at 7:23 PM

Redline
OBAMA ‘I ACTUALLY BELIEVE IN REDISTRIBUTION’
Thanks to MotherJones for introducing the video wars.
D-fusit on September 18, 2012 at 5:06 PM

Isn’t it how Joe the Plumber got his fame?

Can.I.be.in.the.middle on September 18, 2012 at 7:27 PM

Where are the NBC results? They cant be good if Gumby hasn’t bragged about them yet.

milcus on September 18, 2012 at 6:26 PM

They will be useless with their D +10 sample.

Tater Salad on September 18, 2012 at 6:38 PM

Just found the crosstabs.

O’bamna has a 5 point lead.

But the sample is D+ 5

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/WSJpol0918l.pdf

Del Dolemonte on September 18, 2012 at 6:41 PM

It was Barry by 5 with a MOE of 3.6 and a D +5. Marginal edge if there was actually one. Did not see the breakdown of how the indies voted.

bayview on September 18, 2012 at 7:28 PM

None of this will matter at 5:30 when the NBC/Wall St Journal drops it’s (sic) bomb-poll on Mitt.

gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012 at 4:32 PM

I fail to see why you thought this particular poll was so exciting. In reality, it’s pretty weak. Not only was it done by a Democratic pollster (Peter Hart), but it used every trick and loophole in the book (skewed sample, polling over the weekend, hidden methodology for choosing “likely” voters, huge MOE, etc. etc.) and STILL only managed to give Obumbles a measly 5 point lead? Pathetic.

Peter Hart doesn’t have to worry, because 100% of his client list is liberal, Democrat or NBC (but I repeat myself), so it’s not like he’s going to hurt his reputation with his customers. I do wonder, however, why the Wall Street Journal continues to be associated with this farcical series of polls.

HTL on September 18, 2012 at 7:33 PM

You see that vomit? You didn’t puke that.

Axe on September 18, 2012 at 4:14 PM

How can one tell? I mean, it’s not like you can dust for vomit.

CurtZHP on September 18, 2012 at 4:17 PM

Uh, DNA?

Dr. ZhivBlago on September 18, 2012 at 7:38 PM

Why is Obama going on Letterman who is a sexist pig?

sentinelrules on September 18, 2012 at 4:52 PM

They both hate dumb women.

Schadenfreude on September 18, 2012 at 7:41 PM

“I fail to see why you thought this particular poll was so exciting. In reality, it’s pretty weak. Not only was it done by a Democratic pollster (Peter Hart), but it used every trick and loophole in the book (skewed sample, polling over the weekend, hidden methodology for choosing “likely” voters, huge MOE, etc. etc.) and STILL only managed to give Obumbles a measly 5 point lead? Pathetic.”

A measly 5 pt lead?

I’m sure Romney would kill for that 5 pt lead.

Bush wasn’t getting anything close to a 5 pt lead this late in the game vs Kerry. Mitt would have to be consistently within a point or two to have a realistic chance at an upset, imo.

gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012 at 7:47 PM

I have heard, a la Harry Reid, that a NY Times reporter is about to break a big story about Romney. The reporter has evidence that Romney left the toilet seat UP after using the john during a campaign rally! This is the smoking gun on the war on women and indisputable proof that Romney hates women!! This will sink the Republican candidate and probably the whole ticket!! Imagine asking a Fluck to put the seat back down before using!! Obama (as do most Muslims) always sit when using the bathroom!!

Marco on September 18, 2012 at 7:54 PM

gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012 at 7:47 PM

OK, now you’re just being obtuse. The point is that it really isn’t a 5 point lead. The sample is biased, the methodologies are dishonest, and behind it all is a Democrat pollster who knows that he is expected to produce crooked results for purely political purposes, to please his regular customers. The fact that after pulling out all of the stops to cook the books, Hart could only come up with a 5% lead for Obumbles with a 3.6% MOE means that the Obama campaign is really in trouble.

The more reputable pollsters, Gallup and Rasmussen (you know, the ones that publish polls under their own names), are much closer to reflecting the true state of this race, which is that Romney has a slight lead among likely voters.

Face it. With your claim of a “bomb” poll and these fizzling results, you have beclowned yourself yet again. Keep trying to talk your way out of it, though…it’s kind of fun watching you flail about frantically, pretending that down is up and Obama’s doing soooo well.

HTL on September 18, 2012 at 8:04 PM

Bush wasn’t getting anything close to a 5 pt lead this late in the game vs Kerry. Mitt would have to be consistently within a point or two to have a realistic chance at an upset, imo.

gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012 at 7:47 PM

One again, you’re a liar.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_hth.html

wargamer6 on September 18, 2012 at 8:11 PM

Bush wasn’t getting anything close to a 5 pt lead this late in the game vs Kerry.

daveyandgoliath on September 18, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Wow, you’re even dumber than I could have imagined. Art Clokey’s Estate would be ashamed.

RCP, 2004, at this point in the race:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2004/president/us/general_election_bush_vs_kerry-939.html#polls

And remember, Gumba, I am citing these in chronological order.

9/17-9/19 Zogby Bush +3

9/19-9/19 NBC/WSJ Bush +4

9/17-9/21 PEW Bush +3

9/20-9/22 al-AP/Ipsos Bush +7

9/20-9/22 C-BS/NYT Bush +9

9/20-9/22 Marist Bush +6

9/20-9/23 Battleground Bush +5

After that, your Democrat Media, all of whom run “poles” simply to shape public opinion, tinkered with the results of all subsequent “poles” after that. As a result, your Obscenely Rich Democrat Gigolo “candidate” narrowed the gap, and in some cases even led.

But he was such a Poor Candidate that even with their Kneepadding for him by corrupting their “poleing” methods, over the final few weeks his “lead” was always within the MOE.

Z———-

Del Dolemonte on September 18, 2012 at 8:53 PM

Mother Jones has not yet released the hidden camera footage of Romney paying someone to mow his yard.

..and not from this country.

newtopia on September 18, 2012

…who mows your lawn?…Noreclo or Remington ?

KOOLAID2 on September 18, 2012 at 9:06 PM

…who mows your lawn?…Noreclo or Remington ?

KOOLAID2 on September 18, 2012 at 9:06 PM

Newt uses those pink BiCs.

slickwillie2001 on September 18, 2012 at 9:37 PM

Jimmy carter has been surpassed. Barky Heussain Obama is the worst pres ever.

Hope n Change was a slogan for Mr. Bo Jangles to tap dance around reality and trick a bunch of libtards.

SparkPlug on September 18, 2012 at 9:42 PM

Nah.

If you don’t love Whitney’s version of I’ll Always Love You; I’m pretty sure that qualifies you as a communist.

It’s a lot like “If you hate the McRib, you’re a communist.”

There are certain signs that just give away your secret! :P

lorien1973 on September 18, 2012 at 5:54 PM

The only thing better was her rendition of the Star Spangled Banner. Brings tears to my eyes everytime I hear it.

ccrosby on September 18, 2012 at 9:52 PM

What would the Romney bounce be if Obama was shown to be likely gay?
This dubious article claims Obama is gay and gives reasons some of which I wish would be double-checked anyway by credible people:

http://justnotsaid.blogspot.com/2012/09/is-obama-gay.html

Is there any real credibility here? Just asking.

Chessplayer on September 18, 2012 at 10:31 PM

…who mows your lawn?…Noreclo or Remington ?

KOOLAID2 on September 18, 2012 at 9:06 PM

Hott.

bmmg39 on September 18, 2012 at 11:24 PM

Bush wasn’t getting anything close to a 5 pt lead this late in the game vs Kerry. Mitt would have to be consistently within a point or two to have a realistic chance at an upset, imo.

gumbyandpokey on September 18, 2012 at 7:47 PM

I checked with Realclearpolitics. On September 18, 2004, Bush was ahead of Kerry by 9 pts, 51%-42%. That lead vanished by November when the race inevitably tightened. Not only this, but Bush consistently had a low 50s job approval rating for most of 2004. It dropped into the high forties only just before the election. Obama, oth, has been in the mid-forties for most of the year, only lately moving into the high forties. More than that, Republicans this time around have a registration advantage. Plenty of reason for us to be optimistic.

writeblock on September 19, 2012 at 8:41 AM

Polls at this point are not predictive of final outcome. In a sense they’re meaningless. Carter was ahead of Reagan 12 pts in September of 1980. Dukakis was ahead of W.H. Bush 17 pts around this time in 1988. W was ahead of Kerry 9 pts in Sept. 2004. By November of each election year the picture was radically different.

writeblock on September 19, 2012 at 8:55 AM

I notice the trolls here use the names of characters whose brains are absolute clay.

itsspideyman on September 19, 2012 at 6:18 PM

Check out the libs’ God-like intellectual hero make up some strange word in-between necessitate and resuscitate…twice.

Too funny. The guy is a buffoon, and a leftist.

Jaibones on September 18, 2012 at 5:22 PM

Umm, let’s see… would that be “recessitate”?

‘Cause Obagman has been recessitating the country since his first day in office…

Mary in LA on September 19, 2012 at 9:12 PM

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