PPP: Obama up 5 points in Virginia

posted at 12:01 pm on September 17, 2012 by Erika Johnsen

The latest from Public Policy Polling purports that President Obama has a full five percent advantage of Mitt Romney in my highly-clutch, 13-vote home state of Virginia, supposedly leading 51 to 46. That’s the same distance they reported last month, with Obama leading Romney 50 to 45.

Virginia continues to look like it may be something of a firewall state for Obama. PPP has now polled it 9 times this cycle, and President Obama has led by at least 4 points on all 9 of the polls. He’s been ahead by 5 points, 5 points, 8 points, and 8 points over the course of the four surveys we’ve conducted in 2012.

Obama has a slight advantage over Romney (49-47) in terms of who voters trust more on the economy and a wider (51-45) edge over Romney on foreign policy. Only 41% of voters say they approve of how Romney reacted to the situation in Libya this week while 48% express disapproval.

Obama’s leading 56-42 with women, 91-7 with African Americans, 63-30 with other non-white voters, and 56-37 with young voters. Romney has a 51-45 advantage with men, a 57-40 one with whites, and a 54-43 lead with seniors. Romney is slightly ahead with independents, 47-45, but Obama’s party is more unified with Democrats supporting him 95-4 while Republicans go for Romney by a slightly weaker 92-7 margin.

I’m taking this one with a pretty serious grain of salt; an NBC/WSJ/Marist poll last week also reported a five-point lead for Obama, but other polls of Virginia don’t seem to find quite such a large gap, and the RCP average shows that Romney has been steadily gaining ground toward Obama in the Old Dominion since the spring. Virginia may have been the quintessential Hopenchange-spellbound swing state last time around, but I’m hesitant to believe the more traditionally red residents will be taken for a ride to such a large degree again.

Granted, that doesn’t mean that Mitt Romney doesn’t still have an uphill battle. While Virginia’s less-than six percent unemployment rate is largely due to the excellent efforts of our sensible governor and state government, most Virginians aren’t feeling the economic pain quite like the rest of the country, and may be mistakenly attributing the relative lack thereof to President Obama. On a purely personal, non-scientific level, residing in one of Virginia’s liberal-ish, northern, DC-suburb counties can be a bit discouraging. The number of Obama bumper stickers I see on a daily basis is exasperating, and living in the epicenter of Recently-Graduated-Young-Professional-Ville, it seems that every new person I meet insists that, “Oh yes, I’m a moderate,” with that above-the-fray, oh-so-enlightened, faux-sophistication at which I have to scrupulously resist rolling my eyes.

But, this is just one area, and I’m unconvinced that President Obama will have such an easy time retaking all of the more urban-ish zones he did last time, like the heavily military-influenced Virginia Beach area, and maybe even NoVa as a whole with all of the Defense employees. Regardless, there are plenty of independents here for the taking, and it’s going to be a tight competition.


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The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 45% of the vote.

right2bright on September 17, 2012 at 12:05 PM

The Punk is off to Ohio, on your dime. More fools to fool while the embassy in Pakistan is under siege.

He is a Windjacket in Chief. Enjoy the destruction, fools.

Meanwhile I look for Romney to nail him on last week’s events and the aiding and abetting of the enemies.

Schadenfreude on September 17, 2012 at 12:05 PM

Erika,

Not to mention that your beloved Virginia is a major hog at the pork-barrel slop trough that is our Federal Budget. Most Virginia businesses that do regular work with the gubber-mint aren’t going to be too receptive to the Romney-Ryan philosophy of limited government involvement in the economy and reduced Federal spending.

Just sayin’…..

powerpickle on September 17, 2012 at 12:06 PM

PPP= Progressive Party Poll. Nuff said.

Christian Conservative on September 17, 2012 at 12:07 PM

ppp is the equivalent of Democrat party internal polling.

rob verdi on September 17, 2012 at 12:07 PM

EVERYBODY PANIC!!!

JPeterman on September 17, 2012 at 12:08 PM

The number of Obama bumper stickers I see on a daily basis is exasperating, and living in the epicenter of Recently-Graduated-Young-Professional-Ville, it seems that every new person I meet insists that, “Oh yes, I’m a moderate,” with that above-the-fray, oh-so-enlightened, faux-sophistication at which I have to scrupulously resist rolling my eyes.

Yep…the ones I knopw say the same thing. They’re not partisan, they hate both sides equally, blah blah blah.

In my area of the state, which is very red, I don’t see nearly the same number of Obama stickers that I did in ’08. If Romney can win the independent vote, I think he takes the state.

changer1701 on September 17, 2012 at 12:09 PM

Only 41% of voters say they approve of how Romney reacted to the situation in Libya this week while 48% express disapproval.

Er. romney’s not the president (yet). Who cares what he thinks. Did they ask O’boobi?

Hawkerflyer on September 17, 2012 at 12:10 PM

I will not let the polls get me down! Our home will vote R&R and pray they win! That is all our home can do to try and save our Republic from that anti-American we have now.
L

letget on September 17, 2012 at 12:10 PM

Possibility: Obama wins electoral, but loses popular.

Discuss.

Bat Chain Puller on September 17, 2012 at 12:11 PM

ppp is the equivalent of Democrat party internal polling.

rob verdi on September 17, 2012 at 12:07 PM

Even if you disagree with their numbers, the polls are internally relevant, right?

If you have either with a slight lead in one poll, then a few weeks later you have, essentially, the same results. It shows that nothing has changed. Which isn’t what Romney needs.

lorien1973 on September 17, 2012 at 12:11 PM

MOAR POLLS!

rickyricardo on September 17, 2012 at 12:12 PM

I believe the spread close to the 2008 election, so a turn out more like 2004/2010 is likely a tie at this point.

Animal60 on September 17, 2012 at 12:12 PM

The Punk is off to Ohio, on your dime. More fools to fool while the embassy in Pakistan is under siege.

He is a Windjacket in Chief. Enjoy the destruction, fools.

Meanwhile I look for Romney to nail him on last week’s events and the aiding and abetting of the enemies.

Schadenfreude on September 17, 2012 at 12:05 PM

Hmm. I was wondering why there was. Temporary Flight Restriction over Cincy today. :(

Hawkerflyer on September 17, 2012 at 12:12 PM

Romney actually leads 46-44 with independents, and they are more interested in voting than democrats.

PPP skews heavily to the left, including the phrasing of questions that would result in voters choosing Michelle Obama over Ann Romney, can only be partisan respondents, or uninformed respondents. There is no reason to choose one or the other. Both are likeable, neither is important to the presidential choice.

Fleuries on September 17, 2012 at 12:13 PM

EVERYBODY PANIC!!!

JPeterman on September 17, 2012 at 12:08 PM

PPP: Obama up 5 points in Virginia

Alternate headline:

GRAB YOUR BABIES AND GO INTO HIDING!!!

GrannyDee on September 17, 2012 at 12:13 PM

Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 33%

That’s +3 Dem. The actual spread in VA based on registration? +3 Rep. That’s a 6% difference.

The poll is gimmicked. Shift it back to reality, and it’s Obama and Romney tied.

phelps on September 17, 2012 at 12:14 PM

On a purely personal, non-scientific level, residing in one of Virginia’s liberal-ish, northern, DC-suburb counties can be a bit discouraging. The number of Obama bumper stickers I see on a daily basis is exasperating

Ed-
I live in Williamsburg and work down at Langley AFB. this is about a 35 mile treck everyday on I-64. From what I can tell on a daily basis, it is about a 50-50 split on bumper stickers. Obviously, where I work, the majority of people are for Romney. I am holding out hope this state wakes up. As I wrote in an earlier post, I would love to see more Romney ads. Time to take the gloves off…

Static21 on September 17, 2012 at 12:14 PM

PPP does decent polls–when it is their interest to keep their integrity intact and it won’t directly harm Democrat interests. Right now, they have an interest in portraying Obama as the inevitable winner. Closer to the election when it becomes clear he is cratering, they will become accurate again.

cartooner on September 17, 2012 at 12:15 PM

Nolte has had enough…

d1carter on September 17, 2012 at 12:16 PM

That’s +3 Dem. The actual spread in VA based on registration? +3 Rep. That’s a 6% difference.

The poll is gimmicked. Shift it back to reality, and it’s Obama and Romney tied.

phelps on September 17, 2012 at 12:14 PM

There is no party registration in VA.

changer1701 on September 17, 2012 at 12:16 PM

Once more with feeling:
The fact that Hot Sewer Gas repeatedly and continuously pimps Kos’ push poll factory,PPP,is raising continued red flags about the orientation of this site.
.
Again, I have been polled by PPP twice .The only options they give you for responses to questions are those that fit Dem / left policies and talking points.
.
This is strictly a political propaganda operation of the Daily Kos.
.
The fact that this site’s writers and moderators continually give it credence is bizarre.

Dr. Carlo Lombardi on September 17, 2012 at 12:16 PM

Sure it’s PPP, but VA? Something is wrong. We know that, but what is the problem? Mainly, Romney has framed the election incorrectly in terms of the “are you better off than you were four years ago?” question. As I said in my last post, that misses the heart of the matter.

Frame the election question that the voters should ask as simply this: do we want this big out of control govt, or not??

anotherJoe on September 17, 2012 at 12:16 PM


Romney is slightly ahead with independents, 47-45

steebo77 on September 17, 2012 at 12:16 PM

Obama and other “progressive groups” are hiring organizers for Richmond and Norfolk to turn out the vote.

Punchenko on September 17, 2012 at 12:18 PM

Possibility: Obama wins electoral, but loses popular.

Discuss.

Bat Chain Puller on September 17, 2012 at 12:11 PM

Impossible. Not with Ogabe winning New Yack and Kalifornia by double digit margin.

Archivarix on September 17, 2012 at 12:18 PM

On a purely personal, non-scientific level, residing in one of Virginia’s liberal-ish, northern, DC-suburb counties can be a bit discouraging. The number of Obama bumper stickers I see on a daily basis is exasperating

I also live in NoVa, and the bumper sticker barometer is down precipitously from 2008 even when you include the MD or DC tagged cars. In 2008, it seemed like every 4th or 5th car had an Obama sticker. Now, chances are very good that you won’t even see on on your drive in to work.

Make no mistake, this place will still go heavily blue. My congressman Jim Moron still won with 66% in 2010 against a very mainstream Republican. It is obvious that the enthusiasm is way down from then, however. Hopefully, we’ll get enough of them to stay home this year for the rest of the state to pick up the slack.

The Count on September 17, 2012 at 12:19 PM

ppp is the equivalent of Democrat party internal polling.

rob verdi on September 17, 2012 at 12:07 PM

Democrat party internal polling has to be done honestly so they can see where they have problems. PPP is the democrat party propaganda polling organization where they try to influence the narrative.

That’s +3 Dem. The actual spread in VA based on registration? +3 Rep. That’s a 6% difference.

The poll is gimmicked. Shift it back to reality, and it’s Obama and Romney tied.

phelps on September 17, 2012 at 12:14 PM

The internals are the critical part of any polls anymore. If the internals aren’t provided, the published polling results are meaningless.

AZfederalist on September 17, 2012 at 12:19 PM

RCP Average Barry 48.3 Romney 46.8 Obama +1.5

PPP (D) 9/13 – 9/16 1021 LV 3.1 MOE 51B 46R Obama +5
Rasmussen 9/13 – 9/13 500 LV 4.5 MOE 49B 48R Obama +1
NBC/WSJ/9/9 – 9/11 996 LV 3.1 MOE 49B 44R Obama +5
Gravis 9/8 – 9/9 2238 LV 2.2 MOE 44B 49R Romney +5

The one with the largest sample size and smallest MOE had Romney up.

bayview on September 17, 2012 at 12:20 PM

There is no party registration in VA.

changer1701 on September 17, 2012 at 12:16 PM

This. If you read anywhere about VA party by registration, it’s bogus.

Bat Chain Puller on September 17, 2012 at 12:20 PM

Is this article the reason bho is ahead? Very interesting, but I believe we already knew this?

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/this-graph-shows-why-obama-is-ahead-in-the-polls/
L

letget on September 17, 2012 at 12:20 PM

AZfederalist,
True, I meant the ones they tell the media about when they are losing.

rob verdi on September 17, 2012 at 12:21 PM

2008 VA exit polling:
39% D, 33% R, 37% I (D + 6%)

2009 VA exit polling:
33% D, 37% R, 30% I (R + 4%)

2010:
No exit polls available, but Republicans won the House vote by a 54% – 42% margin (R + 13%). In 2008 the Democrats had won by a 7% margin.

PPP’s poll:
35% D, 32% R, 33% I (D + 3%)

steebo77 on September 17, 2012 at 12:22 PM

With the massive increase in government workers, many moving into Virginia, I am NOT surprised.

michaelo on September 17, 2012 at 12:23 PM

The new theme of this campaign:

Slip sliding away, slip sliding away
You know the nearer your destination,
the more you slip sliding away

Erika, with all respect…you’re in denial.

newtopia on September 17, 2012 at 12:23 PM

Possibility: Obama wins electoral, but loses popular.

Discuss.

Bat Chain Puller on September 17, 2012 at 12:11 PM

Impossible. Not with Ogabe winning New Yack and Kalifornia by double digit margin.

Archivarix on September 17, 2012 at 12:18 PM

OK fine. But if Rasmussen is anywhere near correct, Romney will not lose the popular vote.

Therefore, by your logic, either Rasmussen is wrong or Romney wins.

Bat Chain Puller on September 17, 2012 at 12:26 PM

Likely they only polled school teachers, federal workers and no defense contractors (or a very small sample). All I can say is wait until those notices start flowing, and most of us involved in FY 2013 defense contract planning already see the looming effects. No one expanding, talk is of 20 to 30 percent cuts even before sequestration hits, lots of folks jumping ship to non-DoD contracts and companies/agencies.
Not to mention the fact that while I live in a VERY blue city on the southern edge of NoVA (granted it is not quite the Peoples Republic of Alexandria), I can count the Obama yard signs on one hand with enough fingers left to scratch my arse. This is in very stark contrast to 2008. I work just outside of the District on the 95 corridor and again, nothing like 2008. This also goes for bumper stickers. Romney signs and stickers, seeing a fair amount although not over whelming. On top of it, the only political conversations I hear at the local watering holes this time around are either pro Romney or specific negatives about current events. The failures in the ME was all the conversation at Capital Ale this weekend, and that place is full of liberal Mary Washington University parrots.
Evidence is there, hopefully it translates on election day.

donkichi on September 17, 2012 at 12:28 PM

Who the fudge are the people who would vote for the biggest loser, Odoesnthaveacluejustwantstoparty? They should be shipped to an island far far away so that the US can recover.

txag92 on September 17, 2012 at 12:29 PM

While Virginia’s less-than six percent unemployment rate is largely due to the excellent efforts of our sensible governor and state government, most Virginians aren’t feeling the economic pain quite like the rest of the country, and may be mistakenly attributing the relative lack thereof to President Obama.

Not to mention that your beloved Virginia is a major hog at the pork-barrel slop trough that is our Federal Budget. Most Virginia businesses that do regular work with the gubber-mint aren’t going to be too receptive to the Romney-Ryan philosophy of limited government involvement in the economy and reduced Federal spending.

powerpickle on September 17, 2012 at 12:06 PM

In 2010, Virginia received $1.51 in Federal Revenue for each $1.00 in Federal taxes paid. While not wishing to denigrate the mostly excellent job Bob McDonnell is doing as governor, powerpickle is correct. Moreover, Obama will never let sequestration impact VA in any meaningful way. VA will go for Obama again.

Mr. Arkadin on September 17, 2012 at 12:29 PM

Unless I missed multiple memos – there is only ONE poll that means a dern thing and that happens in 50 days aka 7 weeks from tomorrow……………the rest of them are just selling soap (or trying to)

Katfish on September 17, 2012 at 12:29 PM

If Romney is winning the I’s by 2, how does Obama lead by 5? The only answer is a serious over-sample of D’s in a state that should be 50/50 R/D.

Tater Salad on September 17, 2012 at 12:29 PM

EVERYBODY PANIC!!!

JPeterman on September 17, 2012 at 12:08 PM

I am. I AM!

Between shots of vodka, I’m hyperventilating into a paper bag.

Rod on September 17, 2012 at 12:30 PM

How can this possibly be? I agree with donkichi, fellow Virginian, and I live in a very blue part of Fairfax County, but I see few Obama signs. At the farmers’ market, people cluster around the Romney table, not so much the Obama table. Who is doing the polling and who are they asking anyway???

chai on September 17, 2012 at 12:30 PM

Even here in Richmond, I’m seeing more Obama/Biden bumper stickers than I’d like and a new one that says “I heart Obamacare” popping up occasionally. However, there still seem to be more Romney/Ryan bumper stickers and yard signs than not. I just shake my head at these Obama fools who can’t see the forest for the trees. He fiddles while the Mideast burns and we peasants keep getting poorer. I’m still hopeful that Teh One will take a dive, vis-a-vis Jimmy Carter (how sweet a memory that is).

College Prof on September 17, 2012 at 12:30 PM

..it seems that every new person I meet insists that, “Oh yes, I’m a moderate,” with that above-the-fray, oh-so-enlightened, faux-sophistication at which I have to scrupulously resist rolling my eyes.

Ha. Pretty good.

SailorMark on September 17, 2012 at 12:32 PM

Obama, Biden, Hillary, and other high level Administration officials have been spending A LOT of time in Virginia. Particularly in Hampton Roads which is the other big population center aside from NOVA. I’ve been shocked at the amount of time and attention they’ve paid to Virginia. I am guessing they’ve decided this is the lymchpin to their re-elect.

Due to the heavy advantage Team O has in NOVA, I think our only hope is to drive our turnout through the roof statewide, siphone off independents, and run a crap ton of advertizing that utterly depresses democrat voters so they don’t bother showing up.

dczombie on September 17, 2012 at 12:33 PM

Possibility: Obama wins electoral, but loses popular.

Discuss.

Bat Chain Puller on September 17, 2012 at 12:11 PM

Democrats would suddenly become fans of the electoral system.

The Rogue Tomato on September 17, 2012 at 12:34 PM

As always with a PPP poll, subtract 2 points from the Democrat and add 2 points to the Republican, and you get the actual result. Doing that, you get 49-48 Obama, which is more likely than 51-46. However, even 49-48 is problematic for 2 reasons:

1. If Romney is winning independents and Republican enthusiasm, as he does in most polls, chances are that the number is too favorable to democrats.

2. Where are the undecideds. In every poll, there is usally 8-10 percent of the population who fits that category. Yet, PPP pretends that 97% have made up their minds. Unlikely.

So, at worst, this poll, using the usual PPP adjustment, shows Obama up by 1. At best, Romney is actually up by 3-4.

milcus on September 17, 2012 at 12:35 PM

Intrade puts the chances of the Republicans controlling the _____ at

Presidency…34%
Senate…40%
House…85%

Yesterday’s HotAir article “Can Obama get reelected losing the independent vote?” makes a logical and convincing argument that Obama’s battle may be an uphill one.

But how could so many pollsters be so far off with their partisan splits? Despite any political leanings, it’s not in their interest to do a poor job.

So whom to believe and why? Maybe HotAir could do a better job quantifying the chances for us. Til then, here’s the question:

P/S/H (Pres/Sen/House). What do you think the chances are the Republicans will control each following the 2012 elections?

InDubly on September 17, 2012 at 12:35 PM

Told by an independent expert two weeks ago that PPP has been uniformly overstating the Obama number by 3 points throughout the year; and they won’t correct until October 20 or thereafter.

matthew8787 on September 17, 2012 at 12:37 PM

every new person I meet insists that, “Oh yes, I’m a moderate,” with that above-the-fray, oh-so-enlightened, faux-sophistication at which I have to scrupulously resist rolling my eyes.

I was in a Georgetown bar and met a girl and things were going Sooo well, I went for honesty.

So we went back and forth but I finally told her my REAL political philosophy.

She locked herself in the car.

The worst part was that it was my car.

I am never again going to bring up being a racist reactionary who thinks only white male property owners should vote or hold office.

IlikedAUH2O on September 17, 2012 at 12:37 PM

There will be more repubs then dems voting in this election

Conservative4ev on September 17, 2012 at 12:37 PM

milcus on September 17, 2012 at 12:35 PM

I like the cut of your jib.

dczombie on September 17, 2012 at 12:38 PM

I live in NoVa too and am pleased to see very few BO 2012 bumper stickers. In 2008, BO stickers were on every 3rd car it seemed. I am even more pleased to have seen SEVEN Romney signs driving through McLean last week. I’m trying not to get ahead of myself, but the mood is a lot different here than it was in ’08.

hollygolightly on September 17, 2012 at 12:38 PM

Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. God Save America and protect us from obamao.

ultracon on September 17, 2012 at 12:39 PM

Lol, it’s a PPP Poll. Has there ever been a more dishonest pollster? This is the pollster than typically over-estimates Dem turnout by 10 points EXCEPT when it is convenient to support an unpopular Republican then they magically oversample Republicans by 10 points.

No, just no.

PPP isn’t worth even discussing.

mitchellvii on September 17, 2012 at 12:39 PM

Obama’s bounce is done. Not getting excited over Kos’ polling partner either.

rubberneck on September 17, 2012 at 12:44 PM

chai on September 17, 2012 at 12:30 PM

You need to drive west, toward Middleburg. I don’t see nearly as many Obama stickers in that whole area then toward W.Va, Carolina, etc.

I have a several younger working types who have no more patience for him. One went to a rally and worked for him.

However, the college campuses, like UNLV the other day, remain crazy for him. The teachers keep them stoked up.

IlikedAUH2O on September 17, 2012 at 12:44 PM

No need to worry. I just polled 3 of my friends from Virginia and they’re all voting for Romney. My poll suggests a Romney 100%, Obama 0% finish.

What?

Red Cloud on September 17, 2012 at 12:44 PM

Romney should be ahead by 15 points.

MITT, go after him……….another day lost to define Obama and tell the american people what the press won’t.

UGH.

PappyD61 on September 17, 2012 at 12:45 PM

I’d feel a lot better if the R’s had an energizing Senate candidate running in VA. Someone to whip up the enthusiasm.

But… George Allen… ehhhh.

Bat Chain Puller on September 17, 2012 at 12:45 PM

There is NO polling data, positive or negative, that will keep me from casting my vote on November 6th.

As long as everyone else that wants to eradicate themselves of the wanna-be-dictator does the same, then there is nothing to fear.

It’s all about showing up to vote on game day. Everything else is just noise.

VOTE!!!

Carnac on September 17, 2012 at 12:46 PM

Oh yes, I’m a moderate,” with that above-the-fray, oh-so-enlightened, faux-sophistication at which I have to scrupulously resist rolling my eyes.

They tell you they are moderate since (they think) that is acceptable to both sides and they want you to like them.

I heard one say that who later turned out to be a Libertarian.

IlikedAUH2O on September 17, 2012 at 12:47 PM

This is the same poll that predicted Scott Walker’s defeat. They over-sample Dems based on historical turnout. But 2011 was not 2008. Neither is 2012.

RobertMN on September 17, 2012 at 12:48 PM

But FWIW, folks in my deep-blue Richmond neighborhood are very subdued about their Obama support compared to 2008. At the moment, anyway.

Bat Chain Puller on September 17, 2012 at 12:48 PM

IlikedAUH2O on September 17, 2012 at 12:44 PM

Anyone (except military) with high government control of their lives love him.

The women thing really bothers me. How have we failed?

IlikedAUH2O on September 17, 2012 at 12:50 PM

The Punk is off to Ohio, on your dime. More fools to fool while the embassy in Pakistan is under siege.

Schadenfreude on September 17, 2012 at 12:05 PM

It’s called prioritization. Between the fundraising and the constant rounds of Golf, he doesn’t have any time for that foreign policy crap.

I say cut the dog destroyer some slack.

/MSM

CorporatePiggy on September 17, 2012 at 12:53 PM

OT: bomb threat @ LSU, students evacuating

pambi on September 17, 2012 at 12:55 PM

How can this possibly be? I agree with donkichi, fellow Virginian, and I live in a very blue part of Fairfax County, but I see few Obama signs. At the farmers’ market, people cluster around the Romney table, not so much the Obama table. Who is doing the polling and who are they asking anyway???

chai on September 17, 2012 at 12:30 PM

Awww yes!!! The ever important Farms Market poll!

Works for me!!!!

petunia on September 17, 2012 at 12:55 PM

PPPffft. PPP has Obama +1 in NC and Rasmusen has Romney +6…

lynncgb on September 17, 2012 at 12:55 PM

OT: bomb threat @ LSU, students evacuating

pambi on September 17, 2012 at 12:55 PM

It is 1977 again!!!!

For a while about that year we had bomb scares about once a week… pretty fun if you are a high schooler.

petunia on September 17, 2012 at 12:56 PM

What, Dems + 20? Ha!

jake49 on September 17, 2012 at 12:57 PM

Lot of FedGov emplyees in VA.

/”We Have to Protect Our Phoney Baloney Jobs Here, Gentlemen …

rayra on September 17, 2012 at 12:57 PM

Obie up by 5??..I’m becoming a stranger in a strange land!!..:)

Dire Straits on September 17, 2012 at 12:57 PM

PPP is nothing but rot gut and shouldn’t be taken seriously here at hot air.

nazo311 on September 17, 2012 at 12:57 PM

This is the same poll that predicted Scott Walker’s defeat. They over-sample Dems based on historical turnout. But 2011 was not 2008. Neither is 2012.

RobertMN on September 17, 2012 at 12:48 PM

Yep, I don’t know why this is a post.

nazo311 on September 17, 2012 at 12:58 PM

Not to mention the fact that while I live in a VERY blue city on the southern edge of NoVA (granted it is not quite the Peoples Republic of Alexandria), I can count the Obama yard signs on one hand with enough fingers left to scratch my arse. This is in very stark contrast to 2008.

donkichi on September 17, 2012 at 12:28 PM

I mentioned my little anecdotal evidence in the headlines. I’m in the Tidewater area, and recently I was in a neighborhood with the kind of demographics where I would have expected to many Obama yard signs. None. The only sign I saw was for Romney. As I said in the headlines, that was kind of eerie.

Of course, in my little corner of Tidewater, you have to drive for miles to find an Obama sign — which was a major factor in our decision to live in this area.

CJ on September 17, 2012 at 1:02 PM

Been here done that.

2008 same story the polls were against McCain.

Came here and every one was just dissing the polls saying they could not be right.

Well they were.

Get your head out of the ground. At least for now Romney is losing this election.

Steveangell on September 17, 2012 at 1:06 PM

I haven’t looked at detailed internals of the PPP poll, their Ohio poll last week should be instructive as to why their polling should be taken with a huge grain of salt.

Last weeks Ohio poll only appeared to be over sample democrats very slightly, yet showed Obama up enough that many people assumed he was ahead anyway. However, PPP female voters made up 60% of that poll, despite the fact that only 51% of registered Ohio voters are female. Sure, a lot of these may have been registered independent or Republican, but female I’s and female I’s are more likely to buck the general trend and vote for Obama. Therefore the entire purpose of sampling so many women was to inflate Obama’s numbers in the state, as that model is otherwise irrational and would serve no other purpose.

The Virginia poll on the other hand, I suspect over samples Northern Virginia. The fact that PPP finds democrats to be more enthusiastic about voting, despite clear national trends, tells me that a large number of the respondents live in an area where Obama enjoys greater popularity than he does nation wide. So the two possibilities are that the poll is a complete outlier, or that they oversampled northern Virginia to inflate Obama’s numbers.

Seeing as PPP actively tries to inflate Obama’s numbers, I’d pick the later possibility.

WolvenOne on September 17, 2012 at 1:06 PM

I am never again going to bring up being a racist reactionary who thinks only white male property owners should vote or hold office.

IlikedAUH2O on September 17, 2012 at 12:37 PM

We are certain that you have no historical understanding that the intended purpose was NOT to eliminate women and blacks from voting.

Being certain, however, that you have an educational block in that regard, we won’t attempt to educate.

We’ll just let you go with the “racist” meme and leave it at that. You feel your life has purpose for doing so and we don’t to take that from you.

Carnac on September 17, 2012 at 1:06 PM

P/S/H (Pres/Sen/House). What do you think the chances are the Republicans will control each following the 2012 elections?

InDubly on September 17, 2012 at 12:35 PM

House – 95%. Barring something miraculous, Republicans hold onto the House, and might add about 3-5 seats.

Senate – 60%. This in part depends on Romney’s overall performance. Would have been 80% had Todd Akin resigned, but as of now its 60. Here is my breakdown:

CT – McMahon has a shot. It’s about 40/60 at the moment, but if she has a good 2 months, she has a shot.

FL – This one depends on turnout. If Obama carries the State, Nelson wins. If not, Mack wins. At the moment, I think Romney is probably going to win the state, so should be a pck-up. (+1)

Hawaii – Not happening.

Maine – King is going to win, which is a loss. (even).

MA – I think this will be tight, but Brown holds on. But the chances are only 65-35.

MI – This one leans heavily to the left, but if Romney can close the gap, this can be won. Nevertheless, right now, my odds are 15-85.

MN – Probably not.

MO – Should be a pick-up, but Akin screwed it up. If he gets out, its still 80-20, if he stays in, probably 20-80.

MT – This is going to be a Republican pick-up. 90-10 (+1)

NE – Another easy Republican pick-up. 90-10 (+2)

NJ – If Romney can close the gap, maybe. But highly unlikely. 10-90.

ND – Should be a pick-up. 85-15 (+3)

OH – This, like Florida, depends on who wins. To me, its 45-55 at the moment.

PA – No chance, even though Casey is awful.

VA – Like Florida and Ohio, will depend on who wins the Presidency. Right now 45/55.

WI – I think Thompson is slightly ahead at the moment, but this will once again depend on the Presidency. So its 51/49 right now.

So, at the moment, its 50-50, but Republicans can easily come out of the election with 51/52, and maybe even 55, if everything breaks right.

Now, the Presidency. I think right now its 50%. It will all turn on debates and GOTV. If Romney has good debates, and Conservatives go out and vote, Romney wins. If not, Obama wins, its thats simple.

milcus on September 17, 2012 at 1:07 PM

Steveangell on September 17, 2012 at 1:06 PM

Romney +2 Nationally according to Rasmussen

Romney +2 Swing States also according to Rasmussen

Gallop Nationally shows race rapidly tightening among a national poll of registered voters.

Yet you’d rather listen to polls that oversampled democrats, or are openly honest about wanting Obama to win.

But of course, according to you Romney is the anti-christ or something. So you have all the incentive in the world to hope that he loses. ;)

WolvenOne on September 17, 2012 at 1:09 PM

2008 VA exit polling:
39% D, 33% R, 37% I (D + 6%)

2009 VA exit polling:
33% D, 37% R, 30% I (R + 4%)

2010:
No exit polls available, but Republicans won the House vote by a 54% – 42% margin (R + 13%). In 2008 the Democrats had won by a 7% margin.

PPP’s poll:
35% D, 32% R, 33% I (D + 3%)

steebo77 on September 17, 2012 at 12:22 PM

Applying the internals
D: Obama 95-4
R: Romney 7-92
I: Romney 45-47

to the overall topline number of Obama 51-46 results in a D/R/I sample split of

37.7 D / 33.8 R / 28.6 I

Obama is winning by 5 in a D+4 sample, because more Republicans are crossing over to Obama than Democrats to Romney in this sample.

Democrats probably won’t get the D+6 turnout they got in 2008, and Republicans will probably be just as motivated in 2012 as in 2010, but Democrats will probably be more motivated to vote for Obama than they were in 2009 to vote for…Creigh Deeds.

Most likely, both “bases” will turn out in force, but Romney will need to win Indies by more than two points. Virginia (13 EV) is almost a must-win state for Romney, because he would need two other states to make up for its loss: WI(10), CO(9), IA(6), NV(6), and NH(4) all have fewer electoral votes.

Yes, Virginia, the economy sux, and Obama is to blame!

Steve Z on September 17, 2012 at 1:14 PM

You raised a little known topic in this piece. I too, have seen lots of Obama stickers and such. The Romney people should be giving this stuff away in all the swing states. Instead they are selling this stuff on the internet. I suggest that the Romney people stop trying to sell bumper stickers and lawn signs and get them out free to all their supporters and all the local Republican parties in the swing states. When neighbors see lawn signs they feel better about voting for a candidate. I would have loads of lawn signs and stickers out in all the swing states and all the suburban areas of the major cities. There is no tomorrow in politics. The Romney campaign seems to think that money will buy the election on tv at the end. They (or surrogates) should have been spending the money this summer combating the Obama ads. They let Obama define Romney. With the convention as late as it was, there was little Romney could do to help remake his image and tv ads alone won’t change that. However, those lawn signs and posters and stickers give people a different feeling if they see their neighbors are voting for you. In a close election, it might make the difference. Stop selling this stuff and start giving it away for free to supporters and the party and do it now. Kerry ended up will millions in the bank at the end of the campaign and lost. Even if it means going into debt (a horrible thing to say around here) I repeat-in politics there is no tomorrow. You do everything you have to do to win and worry about the money later. This isn’t about our national debt. It’s about winning elections 101. They could learn a lot about how to win from Scott Brown in Mass.

jake22 on September 17, 2012 at 1:23 PM

VA will go for Obama again.

Mr. Arkadin on September 17, 2012 at 12:29 PM

Bob Shrum, is that you?

“Let me be the first to say, ‘Congratulations, Mr. President.’”

- Bob Shrum to John Kerry on election night 2004

Resist We Much on September 17, 2012 at 1:25 PM

The Romney people should be giving this stuff away in all the swing states. Instead they are selling this stuff on the internet.

I don’t think it’s true that they aren’t giving it away. Pretty sure if you go down to your local GOP HQ you will be given yard signs and stickers for free.

Missy on September 17, 2012 at 1:35 PM

Erika – And Mr. Pickle,

NVA folks are very in touch with the country’s pain. Many NVA folks are helping their families in a variety of ways by sending money home, taking in inlaws, taking in other family members’ kids for the summer.

NVA has more entrepreneurs and contractors than it has government workers. Those contractor folks are more distrustful and concerned about the country based on their intimate knowledge than the average voter. They must remain silent for many obvious reasons. They want this to end for their relatives across the country.

Romney and Ryan are perceived v. favorably and Romney’s Bain background is far more helpful than hurtful in NVA. Specifically, in Loudoun County, there are no elected Dems and few proud Dems out on the weekend promoting President Zero and his mini-me Kaine. Ryan is trusted on the budget more than anyone. Sequestration hurts the Dems much more than Repubs.

TEA parties are going to be in the precincts; new voter ID laws, and a highly active volunteer force will discourage Dems. President Zero embarrasses Dems. Dems are behind a number of policy initiatives that are flying under the radar. They all involve property rights and the resultant lowering of property values as a result of those policies – e.g. Loudoun County Chesapeake bay Ordinances; Arlington Trolley, etc. The Dem Brand doesn’t help with that. See eh Fauquier county farmer that keeps coming up in local circles, facebook, twitter feeds, etc.

Bottom line – NVA is not close and on 6 November, VA will be called for Romney Ryan by 8:30PM.

NVA Patriot on September 17, 2012 at 1:39 PM

They could learn a lot about how to win from Scott Brown in Mass.

jake22 on September 17, 2012 at 1:23 PM

Romney was a close advisor of Brown’s in his Senate race. They currently share a strategist (Fehrnstrom) and several key people have gone back and forth between the campaigns. The two campaigns are about as close as a WH and Senate campaign can be.

Missy on September 17, 2012 at 1:47 PM

jake22 on September 17, 2012 at 1:23 PM

Ummm…go to your local victory office and ask for some or many. They are free if they don’t have to ship them to you.

donkichi on September 17, 2012 at 1:47 PM

Romney +2 Nationally according to Rasmussen

Romney +2 Swing States also according to Rasmussen

WolvenOne on September 17, 2012 at 1:09 PM

He loses Ohio and Virginia he loses.

A 2 point lead is meaningless Nationally.

Like Ann Coulter said. Romney should be far ahead. That he is not is a real problem. Is it time to shut down the party?

Obama is widely hated in America. That is a fact. He is a laughing stock. He fails at everything. Yet is is still ahead in the swing states at least. He is within the margin of error Nationally.

Why is it that Romney can not seal the deal?

How is an ad like this supposed to help? It has no substance and Obama himself would mostly approve. Obama talks about doing most of this himself.

Steveangell on September 17, 2012 at 1:52 PM

Yet another bogus poll.

Romney IS up by more that ~10 points.

Look for EVERY polling outfit to blame the voters for lieing to them when the polls were taken.

Freddy on September 17, 2012 at 2:19 PM

I live in Williamsburg and work down at Langley AFB. this is about a 35 mile treck everyday on I-64. From what I can tell on a daily basis, it is about a 50-50 split on bumper stickers. Obviously, where I work, the majority of people are for Romney. I am holding out hope this state wakes up. As I wrote in an earlier post, I would love to see more Romney ads. Time to take the gloves off…

Static21 on September 17, 2012 at 12:14 PM

I’m in Williamsburg as well and I am seeing far more Romney stickers and huge yard signs than Obama, however, there are more Romney signs than his ads. His ads have been awful here or non existant, with Obama ads easily 4 or 5 to 1 of Romney’s. I keep sending notes to the campaign. I don’t know what they are waiting for to unleash some airtime.

Rockygold on September 17, 2012 at 2:33 PM

AFter watching the polls, put out by the Boston Globe, in the Brown/Coakley race, you begin to understand they’re not there to tell you what opinion is, but rather to drive opinion towards one candidate. If the majority believe Obama needs to be re-elected, I guess I should vote for him!!! Well, if the pollsters keep trying to fix the polls, I just won’t believe them and I’ll vote for the one they’re trying to play.

bflat879 on September 17, 2012 at 2:41 PM

He fiddles while the Mideast burns and we peasants keep getting poorer.

College Prof on September 17, 2012 at 12:30 PM

ZNerobama?

OTTO on September 17, 2012 at 3:10 PM

“Oh yes, I’m a moderate,” with that above-the-fray, oh-so-enlightened, faux-sophistication at which I have to scrupulously resist rolling my eyes.

Moderate is generally what snooty liberals say to appear sophisticated.

Independent is what closet conservatives say to avoid being outed as a Republican at their extremely liberal work places.

JadeNYU on September 17, 2012 at 3:26 PM

Like Ann Coulter said. Romney should be far ahead. That he is not is a real problem. Is it time to shut down the party?

Obama is widely hated in America. That is a fact. He is a laughing stock. He fails at everything. Yet is is still ahead in the swing states at least. He is within the margin of error Nationally.

Why is it that Romney can not seal the deal?
=================.

Steveangell on September 17, 2012 at 1:52 PM

Try to lay off the panic a bit….

Look we all know damn well why Obama isn’t way down in the polls when he should be..

Because he has the entirety of the national media shilling for him.. doing puff pieces about his utter awesomeness.. They do every venue with drooling on themselves hosts, begging to ask the next meaningless question about his favorite color..

while during Bush’s 8 years they ran NOTHING but stories about how evil crazy stupid republicans are by their nature..

He has MegaPravda on steroids on his side.. crushing, smearing smashing ANY person critical of him.. they openly mock Romney on their news shows.. and wax poetic about the glorious peoples leader and God-King..

-

and you think it’s all about Mitt being Meh?…

He could wear a blue suit with a big red S and the media would have the mouth breathers hating him for being mean mean mean to Lex Luthor..

You are fixated on the wrong target.. you can hate Mitt on your own dime, but don’t insult our intelligence by acting as if all else was equal between them, and he’s stumbling because of personal failings..

He’s doing stupendously well when you factor in the BILLIONS of free ad time the MSM is granting their fellow progressive Obama..

mark81150 on September 17, 2012 at 3:27 PM

That’s +3 Dem. The actual spread in VA based on registration? +3 Rep. That’s a 6% difference.

The poll is gimmicked. Shift it back to reality, and it’s Obama and Romney tied.

phelps on September 17, 2012 at 12:14 PM

and that is the part I do not understand … we already know what the Iwon is gonna do if he gets 4 more years …. past performance IS
an indicator of future results …
and thinking people want to continue down this path?

Romney is the only sane choice … it pains me to no end to say that …
but it is true ….

conservative tarheel on September 17, 2012 at 3:59 PM

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