Can Obama get reelected losing the independent vote?

posted at 5:31 pm on September 16, 2012 by Karl

The answer is “yes,” if you believe a number of the polls currently in the Real Clear Politics poll average… but that’s a sizable if. The NYT/CBS poll shows Pres. Obama winning by 3 points among likely voters… but losing independents to Mitt Romney 44/50. The WaPo/ABC News poll shows Obama up by a point, while losing independents by 11 points, 43/54. The CNN/ORC poll (.pdf) shows Obama winning by six overall, but losing independents by a whopping 14 points, 40/54. Ironically, given people’s perceptions of poll bias, the Fox poll has Obama winning overall and winning indies by a similar 5 point margin.

Historically, a candidate cannot win the presidency while losing independent votes. However, it has happened thrice in my lifetime: 1976, 2000 and 2004. These exceptions are instructive.

In 1976, Carter won 50/48, while losing indies 48/52. However, the D/R/I breakdown that year was 37/22/41. The remarkably high number of indies and remarkably low number for Republicans suggests that post-Watergate, a lot of those indies were closet Republicans. In 2000, Dubya won indies 48/46, while narrowly losing the popular vote in a 39/35/26 D/R/I breakdown. In 2004, Dubya won 51/48, but lost indies 48/50 in a 37/37/26 D/R/I breakdown.

None of these exceptions provide much comfort to Team Obama. First, they highlight an overall Democrat ceiling of 37-39%. This was also true in 2008, the worst presidential environment for the GOP since 1976, resulting in a D/R/I break down of 39/32/29. Indeed, the increasing sorting of voters since 1976 suggests 2008′s 32% is a likely floor; this year’s GOP-identifying turnout is very likely to be higher. The 2000 and 2004 results, showing a narrow split in indies, suggest that Obama cannot afford to lose indies by six points, let alone 11 or 14 points.

Does this mean that the polls showing Obama winning overall while losing the independent vote are necessarily wrong, or biased? Not necessarily. Every poll has to be judged on its own strengths and weaknesses in total. Moreover, it is likely that these polls merely prove that Obama’s standing from roughly September 8-12 really did reflect a convention bounce already fading and likely to fade more, but which produced more people willing to identify as Democrats in these polls. I would expect that a week from now, polls may well show Obama with worse numbers overall, but perhaps slightly improved numbers with independents, as the weakest Dems and hardcore liberals shift back to an independent identification.

This post was promoted from GreenRoom to HotAir.com.
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You have 2 choices this election. Those that are not planning on voting this election quit wasting your time & our time on this forum.

redridinghood on September 16, 2012 at 7:39 PM

You should put your brown coat on…

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 7:40 PM

esr1951 on September 16, 2012 at 7:31 PM

Chin up, darlin! Just don’t stay home, do something! Get out there and volunteer!

Chewy the Lab on September 16, 2012 at 7:40 PM

Uh oh. Drudge says Politico preparing a hit piece on the Romney campaign.
esr1951 on September 16, 2012 at 6:53 PM

I’d ask why we don’t get that kind of dirt on Obama’s campaign, but I know better.

The Count on September 16, 2012 at 6:56 PM

Actually — and lord knows I’d rather walk over my own tongue than say something nice about Politico — but they did have a piece about a month or so ago about the infighting in the Obama campaign — some idiot who works for them had an internet book on the subject (do know the name, didn’t read it) but there was stuff such as Axelrod & Cutter weren’t even on speaking terms, blah, blah, blah. Of course, I’m sure that all the pundits who dismissed the Obama dirt as “oh, that’s what always happens in campaigns, things get tense, tempers flair,” will find the Romney dirt to be of the utmost importance as proving Romney UNFIT to be POTUS.

Dark Star on September 16, 2012 at 7:42 PM

They may think advertising here is a waste of money. People here are democrat voting robots and turn out no matter what.

The Count on September 16, 2012 at 7:34 PM

Same reason that, other than the oddball cheapie cable or satellite tv service ad, you won’t see any pro-Romney ads in California. Oddly enough, you will see an Obama ad from time to time, but I think that’s to remind folks that he’s fund-raising and needs their wedding gifts.

de rigueur on September 16, 2012 at 7:44 PM

Chewy the Lab on September 16, 2012 at 7:40 PM

I am an active volunteer in the Mourdock campaign. I can assure you that I will not sit back quietly while my country falls apart.

esr1951 on September 16, 2012 at 7:45 PM

Purported video of Libyan ambassador dragged out…

d1carter on September 16, 2012 at 7:44 PM

Not going to watch that. I may lose my dinner if I do.

gophergirl on September 16, 2012 at 7:45 PM

Romney appointed through committee a total of 20% Mass. Republicans, the rest were out and out activist progressives.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 7:30 PM

First Romney could only pick among names submitted to him by the judicial appointment council. You also did not mention most of those were magistrates at the district court level which Romney said that he wants judges who were tough on crimes and political affiliation did not matter. Many of the people he appointed were Democrats, but that did not equate activist progressives. You paint with an awfully broad brush.

bayview on September 16, 2012 at 7:45 PM

Haven’t read all the posts, but does anyone here really think a guy who hates losing so much, and is coddled and supported by the MSM;

whose staff violates the law (Holder and Sebelius) and forgive criminals and wrong-doers (NBPP and Corzine), who shreds the law (ruling by executive fiat when he finds Congress not sending him desired bills fast enough and granting waivers contrary to the written law to others);

and persecutes people for in-home Bible studies and provocative cinematography;

who supports enemies and denounces tenuous allies (Arab Spring), and who lies boldly and blatantly at every turn (security was appropriate in Libya and the people of Libya carried Stevens to the hospital);

and whose administrative bodies are stocking up on hollow-point ammunition — do you honestly think there’s any way at all that he won’t somehow “win” this election?

And that the MSM won’t back up his take-over through coordinated propaganda?

I hope in five years am ridiculed as a deluded paranoiic.

flicker on September 16, 2012 at 7:46 PM

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 7:26 PM

Thank you for your sacrifice.

davidk on September 16, 2012 at 7:46 PM

I am an active volunteer in the Mourdock campaign. I can assure you that I will not sit back quietly while my country falls apart.

esr1951 on September 16, 2012 at 7:45 PM

Excellent! Thank you for your hard work.

gophergirl on September 16, 2012 at 7:46 PM

I think Americans deserve Obama at the moment. I think they deserve the economic downturn. I think they should be suffering significantly more than they currently are, or are likely to even under another 4 years of Obama.
astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 6:12 PM

You sound, how shall I put it, oh yeah, kinda demented…..

jimver on September 16, 2012 at 7:46 PM

I probably am.

flicker on September 16, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Of course, I’m sure that all the pundits who dismissed the Obama dirt as “oh, that’s what always happens in campaigns, things get tense, tempers flair,” will find the Romney dirt to be of the utmost importance as proving Romney UNFIT to be POTUS.

Dark Star on September 16, 2012 at 7:42 PM

But they are going to do that anyway. They’ll find something. Maybe he ties his shoes the wrong way or puts on a sock and a shoe and a sock and a shoe instead of both socks then both shoes. The MSM pundits in the tank for Obama will pick something to hang their “Romney is unfit to be POTUS” theme on.

AZfederalist on September 16, 2012 at 7:47 PM

I would expect that a week from now, polls may well show Obama with worse numbers overall, but perhaps slightly improved numbers with independents, as the weakest Dems and hardcore liberals shift back to an independent identification.

Problem with this idea, is that Obama was doing nearly as badly among independents before the convention as well. I won’t go into specifics, but there were several polls showing a double digit loss among independents before the election, and several polls showing double digit losses among independents afterward.

What the pollsters did to really fluff Obama’s bounce was, in most cases, to take the D/R/I ratios from before the election, and, in most cases, skew them even further towards the D.

A lot of people failed to pick up on this though, and this is because they hid the skew by cannibalizing independents.

Case in point, the recent Fox poll was, overall, D+6, in other words at a glance you would think they were assuming 2008 levels of turnout. At a closer look however, you would notice 41% of the respondents were democrats. In 2008, the turnout was 39/32/29, a record wide disparity between Republicans and Democrats. However, most of that performance wasn’t because of the democratic party performing so strongly, so much as it was the republican party performing so poorly. Republicans lost a ton of support in 2008, verses 2004, but most of those voters re-registered as Independents, not Democrats.

In other words, in 2008, independents showed the most growth compared to other parties, and Republicans suffered because of it. Since then, the democrats have lot a ton of support, while the Republican party has picked back up some disaffected members from the Independent category. Overall however, in the past four years Independents showed the most growth.

However, Fox, NBC, and the New York times are using models that assume that BOTH, the Republican and Democratic party have grown since 2008, at the cost of independents. Furthermore, they assume that this growth was so perfectly level that the two parties perfectly maintained their respective ratios from 2008.

The reason they did this is because it hides the effect of independents upon the polls. Long story short, if independents only make up 20% or less of any given model, then the only way they could move the needle by more than a point or two is if they truly voted in overwhelming numbers for a single candidate.

Fortunately, all of this is bogus. I could see the democratic convention temporarily prompting some individuals to identify as democrats, but they are not going to surge up to 41% of the electorate. Even if democrats managed to retake every single former democrat turned Independent, it wouldn’t get them a model like they ones they show. Republicans have, after all, retaken a large chunk of the losses they took in 2008 among independents.

The absolute best democrats could hope for, is a 4% turnout advantage, and thats almost the worst case scenario for Republicans. The only way it could get any lower than that, is if Republicans stayed home in large quantities on election day.

Considering how eager we are to vote against Obama, I don’t think that scenario is very likely.

WolvenOne on September 16, 2012 at 7:47 PM

flicker on September 16, 2012 at 7:46 PM

I share that fear.

davidk on September 16, 2012 at 7:47 PM

AZfederalist on September 16, 2012 at 7:47 PM

I think last week proved your point quite nicely.

gophergirl on September 16, 2012 at 7:49 PM

gophergirl on September 16, 2012 at 7:46 PM

Reports throughout Indiana are that the tea party people are working like crazy while the lazy Republican establishment just sits back and watches.

esr1951 on September 16, 2012 at 7:49 PM

You should put your brown coat on…

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 7:40 PM

Being stoned all the time has clouded your brain.

redridinghood on September 16, 2012 at 7:50 PM

you will see an Obama ad from time to time, but I think that’s to remind folks that he’s fund-raising and needs their wedding gifts garage sale monies.

de rigueur on September 16, 2012 at 7:44 PM

Garage sales, the new Obama hotness. Hint: you might want to avoid going to any garage sales that weekend.

AZfederalist on September 16, 2012 at 7:51 PM

I think Americans deserve Obama at the moment.
astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 6:12 PM

Who in the hell do you think you are to tell me what I deserve?

JPeterman on September 16, 2012 at 7:51 PM

Garage sales, the new Obama hotness. Hint: you might want to avoid going to any garage sales that weekend.

AZfederalist on September 16, 2012 at 7:51 PM

Watch if you buy on E-bay too. They suggested doing that as well.

gophergirl on September 16, 2012 at 7:52 PM

First Romney could only pick among names submitted to him by the judicial appointment council. You also did not mention most of those were magistrates at the district court level which Romney said that he wants judges who were tough on crimes and political affiliation did not matter. Many of the people he appointed were Democrats, but that did not equate activist progressives. You paint with an awfully broad brush.

bayview on September 16, 2012 at 7:45 PM

Romney appointed the people on the judicial appointment council! Thus he has full culpability in the people they present to him! And yes, it is a broad stroke, as we already know that Republican in Massachusetts is progressive in almost every other part of the country, so that pretty much brings all people that are not republican must be further left than progressives in most other parts of the nation.

You guys and your propaganda! It really is all you have. Hence the whole shut down the debate in the primaries.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 7:52 PM

This now is in all seriousness.

Either Rassmussen is wrong or all the OTHER pollsters are wrong.

Normally i would say if all others are one way and one is different
that that one must be wrong.

I feel that Rassmussen though is the only one using realistic democratic turnout.

all the others seem to be using 2008 model.

So from now on i’m only paying attention to Rassmussen.

gerrym51 on September 16, 2012 at 7:53 PM

Who in the hell do you think you are to tell me what I deserve?

JPeterman on September 16, 2012 at 7:51 PM

Who the hell do you think you are to tell me who to vote for? American’s in general. Individuals always vary in culpability to the decline.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 7:53 PM

davidk on September 16, 2012 at 7:47 PM

And there is an eerily similar concern from Ben Stein at American Spectator.

http://spectator.org/archives/2012/09/14/end-times

flicker on September 16, 2012 at 7:53 PM

Being stoned all the time has clouded your brain.

redridinghood on September 16, 2012 at 7:50 PM

Assumptions by you are very far off about my signature.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 7:54 PM

Okay here is a question for all of the doom sayers. Does the MSM lie? If you answered yes, then why would you believe anything they tell you? Polls, stories, facts all fabrications. They are messing with your mind and your emotions, trying to discourage people from voting. Its all in vain, we can’t win, Romney is starting to fade, he’s a weak candidate and on and on.Here is a fact I know personally from working on anumber of campaigns. The deep, deep blue state I live in, is now a tossup, It went to Obama at over 65%, and now it is a tossup ! The pole who are depressed are on the left, they know what is coming and it isn’t good for them.

stormridercx4 on September 16, 2012 at 7:55 PM

A major factor in Obama’s campaign is the con game they’re playing–with media-friendly polls, with friendly stories planted in friendly newspapers, with media burying anything negative. But he’s still down more than 25% with the Jewish vote, he’s down with the Catholic vote, he’s down with the black vote. He’ll win all three blocs–but not to the extent necessary to win FL and OH. He couldn’t fill that stadium in NC, remember? In a state full of black voters. Booking that arena was part of the con job, but he couldn’t hack it. The thrill is definitely gone for everybody. Meanwhile Romney quietly moves up in WI, up in MI. He’s looking good in VA and NC, will probably take FL and OH.

writeblock on September 16, 2012 at 7:55 PM

And there is an eerily similar concern from Ben Stein at American Spectator.

http://spectator.org/archives/2012/09/14/end-times

flicker on September 16, 2012 at 7:53 PM

Oh I think if Obama is re-elected it is. If not right away – it certainly is the “season”.

gophergirl on September 16, 2012 at 7:55 PM

Who the hell do you think you are to tell me who to vote for? American’s in general. Individuals always vary in culpability to the decline.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 7:53 PM

I didn’t tell you who to vote for, we already know you and your family are voting for Obama.

JPeterman on September 16, 2012 at 7:56 PM

PS: Yes Fox did show Romney losing independents, but they assumed massive turnout for the Republican, even more massive turnout for the democratic, and extremely low turnout for Independents.

As such, their sample of Independents was remarkably small, by my math it was slightly under 200 people. With only 200 Independents polled, the margin of error within the demographic becomes, pretty darn large, so much so that the fringes of the MOE on the Fox Poll would actually look a lot like the polls that showed Romney up double digits.

Let me put it to you this way, polling 600 people gives you a margin of error of about, +/- 3 or 4%. A poll half that size would increase the MoE 6-8%, and a poll with still a third less people would have a MoE of nearly 9-10%.

Basically, while the overall sample is okay in terms of size, they polled too few independents to make it statistically meaningful. All they needed were 20 respondents that didn’t vote along national trendlines to skew the poll ten points in the wrong direction among Independents.

This isn’t conclusive mind you, but I suspect this is what happened there.

WolvenOne on September 16, 2012 at 7:57 PM

You guys and your propaganda! It really is all you have. Hence the whole shut down the debate in the primaries.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 7:52 PM

The fact that you are still here spewing your propaganda and nonsense put lies to your continuing claims about debates being shut down. Why do you always cry butt hurt when other dispute your BS?

bayview on September 16, 2012 at 7:57 PM

Is this a joke? His base will turn out by a least 3% of what they did in 2008 so of course he cannot win if loses the independents. Stop those stupid scenarios folks… The welfare queens agitator is finished and he is not going to be re-elected. He is only politically alive via stupid biased media polls and the extreme bias of the liberal media but at the end on elections day he is going to lose…

mnjg on September 16, 2012 at 7:57 PM

The people on the left ( stupid tabiet)

stormridercx4 on September 16, 2012 at 7:57 PM

Write astonerii off…
We knew there was going to be people like astonerii..

Electrongod on September 16, 2012 at 7:58 PM

You have 2 choices this election. Those that are not planning on voting this election quit wasting your time & our time on this forum.

redridinghood on September 16, 2012 at 7:39 PM

You should put your brown coat on…

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 7:40 PM

Aww, Godwin, is that you??.. You should put your brain on, start wearing it already….seriously…

jimver on September 16, 2012 at 7:59 PM

gerrym51 on September 16, 2012 at 7:53 PM

My thoughts are that the favorable polls are to corroborate the stuffed-ballot-box win or to give credence to a skeptical public during the judicial challenges if he loses.

flicker on September 16, 2012 at 8:00 PM

This now is in all seriousness.

Either Rassmussen is wrong or all the OTHER pollsters are wrong.

Normally i would say if all others are one way and one is different
that that one must be wrong.

I feel that Rassmussen though is the only one using realistic democratic turnout.

all the others seem to be using 2008 model.

So from now on i’m only paying attention to Rassmussen.

gerrym51 on September 16, 2012 at 7:53 PM

Rasmussen is, from what I’ve heard, splitting the difference between the 2004 model and the 2008 model. The net effect is supposedly that they’re giving democrats a 1-3% edge, depending on the day, but assuming that African Americas, Hispanics, and Young Voters turn out in roughly the same numbers they did four years ago.

Overall that sounds like an okayish model.

WolvenOne on September 16, 2012 at 8:01 PM

The fact that you are still here spewing your propaganda and nonsense put lies to your continuing claims about debates being shut down. Why do you always cry butt hurt when other dispute your BS?

bayview on September 16, 2012 at 7:57 PM

Many of the conservatives who used to visit this site and post are long gone because they tired of the constant SEIU thuggery that Romney supporters threw at them. My feelings do not get hurt so easily. Romney is progressive, if he is your guy for turning back the damage Obama did to the nation, you are woefully in for a surprise. Then again, I do not think you are really that stupid. I think you are happy to have Romney come in and destroy the reputation of the republican party while simultaneously having him serve progressive policy goals.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 8:02 PM

Astonerii, you may be a patriot, but your math sucks. No realistic plan exists that can balance the budget in four years. If you know otherwise, I’d love to see the spreadsheet.

Mitsouko on September 16, 2012 at 8:02 PM

Write astonerii off…
We knew there was going to be people like astonerii..

Electrongod on September 16, 2012 at 7:58 PM

Is that in reference to the reeducation camps?

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 8:03 PM

Astonerii, you may be a patriot, but your math sucks. No realistic plan exists that can balance the budget in four years. If you know otherwise, I’d love to see the spreadsheet.

Mitsouko on September 16, 2012 at 8:02 PM

I’ll go for 8.
I think my original statement to the Romney promise is that the Cap and Balance goes into effect in 2020 for the 2021 budget year.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 8:04 PM

Many of the conservatives who used to visit this site and post are long gone because they tired of the constant SEIU thuggery that Romney supporters threw at them. My feelings do not get hurt so easily. Romney is progressive, if he is your guy for turning back the damage Obama did to the nation, you are woefully in for a surprise. Then again, I do not think you are really that stupid. I think you are happy to have Romney come in and destroy the reputation of the republican party while simultaneously having him serve progressive policy goals.

i don’t miss Tesla

gerrym51 on September 16, 2012 at 8:05 PM

Astonerii, you may be a patriot, but your math sucks. No realistic plan exists that can balance the budget in four years. If you know otherwise, I’d love to see the spreadsheet.

Mitsouko on September 16, 2012 at 8:02 PM

Of course not, people must continue to get their free stuff.

bgibbs1000 on September 16, 2012 at 8:05 PM

Yeah, something’s in the air, and it’s not global warming. The world is rioting from Moracco to Australia, not counting England, and the WH had no idea this was coming?

Can the State Department be this dense?

flicker on September 16, 2012 at 8:06 PM

i don’t miss Tesla

gerrym51 on September 16, 2012 at 8:05 PM

Did the good Dr. get banned?

I don’t miss him AT ALL!

gophergirl on September 16, 2012 at 8:07 PM

http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-TV/2012/09/16/BREAKING-Video-Purports-To-Show-Ambassador-In-Libya

can obama get reelected when there is video showing his ambassador getting drug out a building???
/questions.

ted c on September 16, 2012 at 8:07 PM

I hope in five years am ridiculed as a deluded paranoiic.

flicker on September 16, 2012 at 7:46 PM

I hope you are too –and myself as well (yes, the same thoughts do cross my mind from time to time).

AZfederalist on September 16, 2012 at 7:47 PM

But of course you’re right. I didn’t go to Harvard or Yale, but I sure can see the “memes” they’re beating over my head.

This particular haka from TeamObama/MSM is really starting to annoy me though just based on its sheer unoriginality. They said the same thing about Hillary Clinton (primary) and Sarah Palin (GE). Heck, to a lesser extent they said it about McCain too (“being a POW doesn’t ‘qualify’ you to be POTUS”). The message, of course, which I actually think many of these morons believe, is that the only person on the planet fit to be POTUS is Obama.

Dark Star on September 16, 2012 at 8:08 PM

i don’t miss Tesla

gerrym51 on September 16, 2012 at 8:05 PM

He was a recent addition to the site. Not one of the MM time period people.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 8:08 PM

Then again, I do not think you are really that stupid.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 8:02 PM

I, on the other hand, think you are really that stupid.

bayview on September 16, 2012 at 8:09 PM

Yeah, something’s in the air, and it’s not global warming. The world is rioting from Moracco to Australia, not counting England, and the WH had no idea this was coming?

Can the State Department be this dense?

This was in response to gophergirl on September 16, 2012 at 7:55 PM

flicker on September 16, 2012 at 8:10 PM

I, on the other hand, think you are really that stupid.

bayview on September 16, 2012 at 8:09 PM

It goes to show your inability to see reality then.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 8:10 PM

The pole who are depressed are on the left, they know what is coming and it isn’t good for them.

stormridercx4 on September 16, 2012 at 7:55 PM

Hopefully that makes you sleep well at night.

HotAirLib on September 16, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Many of the conservatives who used to visit this site and post are long gone because they tired of the constant SEIU thuggery that Romney supporters threw at them.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 8:02 PM

And your calling other people who dispute your BS brown-shirts and re-educational camp staff are gentle persuasion?

bayview on September 16, 2012 at 8:13 PM

You guys and your propaganda! It really is all you have. Hence the whole shut down the debate in the primaries.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 7:52 PM

..I reject your agenda, troll tool. You are beyond tedious. Pisss off!

The War Planner on September 16, 2012 at 8:14 PM

Hint: you might want to avoid going to any garage sales that weekend.

AZfederalist on September 16, 2012 at 7:51 PM

I just wouldn’t know where to put another garage. Even with an elevator.

de rigueur on September 16, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Can the State Department be this dense?

flicker on September 16, 2012 at 8:06 PM

It is staffed for the most part by liberal progressive career civil service employees. A significant number of them sincerely believe that all problems in the world can be solved by diplomacy and words. Most of whom are career diplomats and/or “specialists” for specific countries who often develop a very close affinity to the countries that they research. Draw your own conclusions.

AZfederalist on September 16, 2012 at 8:15 PM

It goes to show your inability to see reality then.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 8:10 PM

Not many people are in that world of demented “reality” you inhabit. And that something to be thankful for.

bayview on September 16, 2012 at 8:15 PM

I think Americans deserve Obama at the moment. I think they deserve the economic downturn. I think they should be suffering significantly more than they currently are, or are likely to even under another 4 years of Obama.
astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 6:12 PM

…IF…and that might be a big IF…if sometime in his next 57,000 posts assI’mme seems to have one post with some kind of what you might think is some kind of normal clarity…remember this one!
(note to rogerb)

KOOLAID2 on September 16, 2012 at 8:17 PM

I think you are happy to have Romney come in and destroy the reputation of the republican party while simultaneously having him serve progressive policy goals.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 8:02 PM

You forget the ultimate goal is to beat Obama. Most people here do not care about the balancing the budget or creating jobs. Obama can nominate Sarah Palin to the supreme court, end medicare and every single entitlement we have,bring down UE to 0.1%, balance the budget, nuke Iran and this folks still wont be satisfied.

HotAirLib on September 16, 2012 at 8:18 PM

Who the hell do you think you are to tell me who to vote for? American’s in general. Individuals always vary in culpability to the decline.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 7:53 PM

One question though, what the heck are you exactly doing on this site…don’t get me wrong, not that you are not in your own rights to come and comment here, just like anybody else, that’s not my point, but what kind of bizarre, massochisric satisfaction do you derive from having a lot of people telling you off or telling you basically that they don’t want to hear your loser whining…am sure here are libertarian sites where hou can jpin he choire of like minded loons and enjoy the groupthink…the way we look at it, most of of us here an important fight to fight, like it or not, and we will do it, till the end, and we might lose, but at least we don”t cowardly sit the elections out and then come here and overwhelm everybody else with endless whining about this terrible president and the decline of america..you have a chance to change that, if you decide not to take that chance, that’s your business…I don’t honestly care who you vote for, but I don’t get it for the life of me why do you keep coming here….you must be a very lonely person…I suppose that’s a good enough reason…But at least admit it and stop lecturing us on what we deserve as Americans…coz you have no clue…

jimver on September 16, 2012 at 8:19 PM

Bgibbs, even if you stop giving people free stuff, as you put it, you still couldn’t balance the budget any time soon.

And for Astonerii, how the heck can Romney promise to institute cap and balance by 2021? It would make you feel better, but I think shorter term goals are more important right now.

Mitsouko on September 16, 2012 at 8:19 PM

It depends on whether or not sleazy Eric Holder can block the military vote and various other voter fraud schemes Janet “Barbecue” Reno taught him.

viking01 on September 16, 2012 at 8:19 PM

Massochistic that is.

jimver on September 16, 2012 at 8:19 PM

I’m not trying to go all Godwin, but FTR, the only ones in brown shirts showing up to take people from their homes in the middle of the night are the ones sent by Obama.

Yes, kids, even though the Left has been screaming for years that the brown shirts were going to come from the Right, they lied.

Dark Star on September 16, 2012 at 8:20 PM

My feelings do not get hurt so easily…

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 8:02 PM

yeah…we know!

I think Americans deserve Obama at the moment. I think they deserve the economic downturn. I think they should be suffering significantly more than they currently are, or are likely to even under another 4 years of Obama.
astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 6:12 PM

KOOLAID2 on September 16, 2012 at 8:24 PM

Obama can nominate Sarah Palin to the supreme court, end medicare and every single entitlement we have,bring down UE to 0.1%, balance the budget, nuke Iran and this folks still wont be satisfied.

HotAirLib on September 16, 2012 at 8:18 PM

Umm, yeah sport. Has he promised to do any of that stuff? I’m sure that sounded good in your head before you typed it. On the screen? Not so much.

AZfederalist on September 16, 2012 at 8:25 PM

Bgibbs, even if you stop giving people free stuff, as you put it, you still couldn’t balance the budget any time soon.

And for Astonerii, how the heck can Romney promise to institute cap and balance by 2021? It would make you feel better, but I think shorter term goals are more important right now.

Mitsouko on September 16, 2012 at 8:19 PM

Oh yes I could. Once people aren’t paid to sit on their ass they have to work, any work to survive. That means more tax revenue. The budget would balance in short order. Yeah I know go ahead and say there would riots and what not. No doubt there would be, but they wouldn’t last.

bgibbs1000 on September 16, 2012 at 8:26 PM

I’m not trying to go all Godwin, but FTR, the only ones in brown shirts showing up to take people from their homes in the middle of the night are the ones sent by Obama.

Yes, kids, even though the Left has been screaming for years that the brown shirts were going to come from the Right, they lied.

Dark Star on September 16, 2012 at 8:20 PM

Heh, those are beige though :)…

jimver on September 16, 2012 at 8:26 PM

Just saw on Fox’s America’s News Headquarters show, that if the election was held today, 0bama would win by a pretty good margin.

Mirimichi on September 16, 2012 at 5:48 PM

..so, what are you going to do about it? Sit there and wet your pants? Post these Eeyore comments? Why not go out and volunteer. You can do so for free in the comfort of your home with the same amount of effort you put into commenting here.

The War Planner on September 16, 2012 at 8:27 PM

Yes, kids, even though the Left has been screaming for years that the brown shirts were going to come from the Right, they lied.

Dark Star on September 16, 2012 at 8:20 PM

Don’t forget Janet El Reno barbecuing the Branch Davidians over a standoff that they instigated when they could have grabbed the guy days before.

It was also here “Justice” Department that sent a SWAT team to grab a child whose Cuban mother had died trying to get them both to freedom and shipped him back to Cuba.

Yeah, it’s the conservatives who are the Brown Shirts.

AZfederalist on September 16, 2012 at 8:28 PM

folks still wont be satisfied.

HotAirLib on September 16, 2012 at 8:18 PM

HAL, you are right about part of it. I won’t be satisfied until you are singing Daisy. Get busy!

Bmore on September 16, 2012 at 8:31 PM

Alright so its all settled. Next order of business, how to pay for stuff with no money. Who’d like to start?

Bmore on September 16, 2012 at 8:32 PM

I think Americans deserve Obama at the moment. I think they deserve the economic downturn. I think they should be suffering significantly more than they currently are, or are likely to even under another 4 years of Obama.
astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 6:12 PM

KOOLAID2 on September 16, 2012 at 8:24 PM

..this guy Ass-Toner-2 is certifiably creepy. Check out his blog — or, better yet, don’t. He reminds me of the guy who played Buffalo Bill on Silence of the Lambs.

The War Planner on September 16, 2012 at 8:34 PM

Bgibbs, even if you stop giving people free stuff, as you put it, you still couldn’t balance the budget any time soon.

And for Astonerii, how the heck can Romney promise to institute cap and balance by 2021? It would make you feel better, but I think shorter term goals are more important right now.

Mitsouko on September 16, 2012 at 8:19 PM

That’s exactly right…no sane person could actually think that that mother of all deficits can be balanced by 2020…we should be lucky to have it under controll by 2030…and then make sure that NEVER AGAIN…

jimver on September 16, 2012 at 8:34 PM

Alright so its all settled. Next order of business, how to pay for stuff with no money. Who’d like to start?

Bmore on September 16, 2012 at 8:32 PM

QE4…5,6,7,8,9,……………………where she stops is financial collapse.

bgibbs1000 on September 16, 2012 at 8:35 PM

To this point: A lot of people have been driven off from self identifying as democrats, for whatever political/social/personal reasons, they abhor the political class and only want to call themselves independents. They have been told by the media over and over that republicans and the republican party is too terrible, and there is a veiled threat that if you go republican well they will bully you and humiliate you.

So it is easier to be secretive, and detached, and call yourself an Independent. They don’t have to join anything that might have members in the group who will humiliate them as members with scandalous acts. Independents don’t usually get blamed for things other Independents do, and usually the candidates have to belong to a party to get elected, so the Indies can remain philosophical and pure and untouched by reality and politics.

But seriously, it is a valid refuge.

Fleuries on September 16, 2012 at 8:37 PM

That’s exactly right…no sane person could actually think that that mother of all deficits can be balanced by 2020…we should be lucky to have it under controll by 2030…and then make sure that NEVER AGAIN…

jimver on September 16, 2012 at 8:34 PM

No sane person would continue with this type of insanity. At some point way before your time frame for balance it won’t matter because the system will collapse.

bgibbs1000 on September 16, 2012 at 8:38 PM

That’s exactly right…no sane person could actually think that that mother of all deficits can be balanced by 2020…we should be lucky to have it under controll by 2030…and then make sure that NEVER AGAIN…

jimver on September 16, 2012 at 8:34 PM

And you wonder why i do not support your side…

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 8:39 PM

And for Astonerii, how the heck can Romney promise to institute cap and balance by 2021? It would make you feel better, but I think shorter term goals are more important right now.

Mitsouko on September 16, 2012 at 8:19 PM

Constitutional amendment. Tell congress to pass it or you will not sign any debt limit increase they send to your desk. They pass it, send it to the states for Ratification, then have fun for 8 years. But at the end of that 8 years comes the constitutional Amendment and the required breaking of the constitution or the truth, that we are no longer a republic and that the politicians do not in fact work for the voter, but the voter works for the politician.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 8:44 PM

That’s exactly right…no sane person could actually think that that mother of all deficits can be balanced by 2020…we should be lucky to have it under controll by 2030…and then make sure that NEVER AGAIN…

jimver on September 16, 2012 at 8:34 PM

No sane person would continue with this type of insanity. At some point way before your time frame for balance it won’t matter because the system will collapse.

bgibbs1000 on September 16, 2012 at 8:

Do uour math, it can’t be done by 2020 without massive tax hikes.heck, last time I heard the cons weren’t too kin onthat…

jimver on September 16, 2012 at 8:54 PM

And you wonder why i do not support your side…

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 8:39 PM

Actually I don’t think anyone is wondering that at this point. The primary is over however. Conservatives did not win. Romney is the nom. So I still say cast your vote for 0.

Bmore on September 16, 2012 at 8:54 PM

Actually I don’t think anyone is wondering that at this point. The primary is over however. Conservatives did not win. Romney is the nom. So I still say cast your vote for 0.

Bmore on September 16, 2012 at 8:54 PM

They are both 0s, you need to be much more clear on this…

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 8:55 PM

WolvenOne on September 16, 2012 at 7:47 PM

.
Good piece of analysis, unfortunately, it won’t get the attention and discussion it should because so many people with commenting rights just LOVE to go pointlessly back and forth with the trolls.

PolAgnostic on September 16, 2012 at 8:56 PM

One question though, what the heck are you exactly doing on this site…don’t get me wrong, not that you are not in your own rights to come and comment here, just like anybody else, that’s not my point, but what kind of bizarre, massochisric satisfaction do you derive from having a lot of people telling you off or telling you basically that they don’t want to hear your loser whining.
jimver on September 16, 2012 at 8:19 PM

Contrarian voice of reason :) The truth is that in 2 years if Romney is elected, some of you will really need a good solid critical and unfriendly reminder of I told you so. On the other hand, he might really be a conservative. I am not willing to believe that based on his past. He has done nothing to show a change of view from when he spoke the truth before, “my views are progressive”. So too will be his policy proposals. Then you all can tell me that you told me so. A good all around learning experience for one or many.

Besides, I am active here for the last twoish weeks and next twoish weeks as my wife is out of town, and I am left with time on my hands.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 9:04 PM

WolvenOne on September 16, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Good piece of analysis, unfortunately, it won’t get the attention and discussion it should because so many people with commenting rights just LOVE to go pointlessly back and forth with the trolls.

PolAgnostic on September 16, 2012 at 8:56 PM

Yes, it was a very good piece of analysis and gives hope.

AZfederalist on September 16, 2012 at 9:05 PM

They are both 0s, you need to be much more clear on this…

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 8:55 PM

Incorrect. You might want to research Romney a bit more. He may not be cut from the cloth of Conservatism as you and I might prefer. But he is a successful man with good family creditability. I will give him his props for being a good man. 0 is not. Trying to equate the two of them as being the same is intellectually dishonest. You should not be dishonest about it. If you have to twist facts you have lost the argument.

Bmore on September 16, 2012 at 9:05 PM

But he is a successful man with good family creditability. I will give him his props for being a good man.

Bmore on September 16, 2012 at 9:05 PM

So was Carter. A self-made millionaire, good family man, veteran and assisted in the cleanup of the Chalk River nuclear plant. To this day Carter builds houses for the poor.

Terrible president and a leftist though.

Reagan on the other hand was a divorced actor who starred alongside a chimp.

The personal doesn’t describe the man in office.

sharrukin on September 16, 2012 at 9:11 PM

Yes, if he commits massive vote fraud, AKA community organizing.

flataffect on September 16, 2012 at 9:15 PM

sharrukin on September 16, 2012 at 9:11 PM

You pretty much gave the reply I was going to give.

I am not voting for a friend. I am not picking a church to go to. I am not choosing which neighborhood I want to live in. I am picking a political leader.

Then again, I will admit, as a person, Romney is a much better human than Obama is. I still think he will end up causing more long term harm to the nation than the self destructive Obama will.

Bush could have stopped the housing bubble in 2003. He let it roll on, as he did not want to be called mean and was enjoying the benefits of being able to tout his highest in history minority home ownership numbers. But there was the reelection to look at, and after that, well, he thought it would fall on the next president to fix the bursting bubble. Unfortunately, he picked a Goldman Sachs man for treasury and that Goldman Sachs guy did not want to risk the next president preventing Goldman Sachs from being made whole, so he pulled the trigger early on the collapse. That is the same pool that Romney will be pulling his men from by the way…

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 9:24 PM

So was Carter. A self-made millionaire, good family man, veteran and assisted in the cleanup of the Chalk River nuclear plant. To this day Carter builds houses for the poor.

Terrible president and a leftist though.

Reagan on the other hand was a divorced actor who starred alongside a chimp.

The personal doesn’t describe the man in office.

sharrukin on September 16, 2012 at 9:11 PM

True, but the topic is Romney, 0 , not Carter, Reagan.

Bmore on September 16, 2012 at 9:27 PM

Then again, I will admit, as a person, Romney is a much better human than Obama is. I still think he will end up causing more long term harm to the nation than the self destructive Obama will.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 9:24 PM

Better than Obama describes 99% of the population.

I have the same opinion. We need to deal with the problems and stop putting it off to some other day.

sharrukin on September 16, 2012 at 9:28 PM

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 9:24 PM

We aren’t talking about Bush. We are comparing Romney to 0. You assert they are the same. I am asserting they are indeed not the same.

Bmore on September 16, 2012 at 9:29 PM

True, but the topic is Romney, 0 , not Carter, Reagan.

Bmore on September 16, 2012 at 9:27 PM

Then tell me what is so conservative about Romney other than his rhetoric? What conservative things has he done in office?

sharrukin on September 16, 2012 at 9:30 PM

Tell me where I’m wrong here. 0 will continue to do everything in his power to hasten American decline. Romney will not hasten it, he will in fact slow it down and perhaps actually start to move it the other direction.

Bmore on September 16, 2012 at 9:32 PM

Then tell me what is so conservative about Romney other than his rhetoric? What conservative things has he done in office?

sharrukin on September 16, 2012 at 9:30 PM

I already said Conservatives lost the primary. The establishment R’s won the nom. Romney is not a Conservative.

Bmore on September 16, 2012 at 9:34 PM

I’m not putting any faith in the polls right now. DOJ is going after Gallup so it comes as no surprise that the big Zero is ahead in their polls.

I live in Colorado and had the opportunity today to see the Mitt Romney bus. No Romney or Ryan, but the crowd still got fired up. And people were driving by and honking their horns with thumbs up. IMHO, there were more favorable responses than unfavorable. I have heard from 2 people with whom I generally never talk politics and they will not be voting for Obama again. Most of my other friends never did and never will vote for him. I think running off to Las Vegas for fundraising while our ambassador in Libya is murdered, while appearing on Letterman while snubbing the Israeli prime minister, doesn’t sit well with a lot of folks.

I think the boy is in trouble.

COgirl on September 16, 2012 at 9:37 PM

I already said Conservatives lost the primary. The establishment R’s won the nom. Romney is not a Conservative.

Bmore on September 16, 2012 at 9:34 PM

Well then conservatives really don’t have a dog in the fight, do they? Its six of one, half a dozen of the other.

Romneycare VS Obamacare

sharrukin on September 16, 2012 at 9:39 PM

Obama’s destruction is of the kind that is deliberate, Malevolent. But due to that, it has a short shelf life. Its failures are quick to materialize and thus quick to point the finger to the origination and cause. People can turn from it and recover much faster from this kind of destruction.
Then there is the malignant slow creep of socialism that destroys the character and the strength of the nation. Taking peak producers out of the workforce early and taxing the weaker producers heavily to provide for their multiple decades long vacation and medical care. Effectively punishing the young who start with little to provide for the older who have had decades to build their wealth. Obama puts that socialism at risk of collapse. Romney will shore it up and make it a longer term problem for future generations to suffer through.

I really do not see the end of the nation like many of you. I see financial crisis building the next bigger financial crisis which builds yet another yet bigger financial crisis. All because the can must be kicked down the road. Romney is kick the can down the road. Obama is face the can, the can kicks our asses down the road, then we can recover starting from a position other than built on fake sand.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 9:39 PM

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