Can Obama get reelected losing the independent vote?

posted at 5:31 pm on September 16, 2012 by Karl

The answer is “yes,” if you believe a number of the polls currently in the Real Clear Politics poll average… but that’s a sizable if. The NYT/CBS poll shows Pres. Obama winning by 3 points among likely voters… but losing independents to Mitt Romney 44/50. The WaPo/ABC News poll shows Obama up by a point, while losing independents by 11 points, 43/54. The CNN/ORC poll (.pdf) shows Obama winning by six overall, but losing independents by a whopping 14 points, 40/54. Ironically, given people’s perceptions of poll bias, the Fox poll has Obama winning overall and winning indies by a similar 5 point margin.

Historically, a candidate cannot win the presidency while losing independent votes. However, it has happened thrice in my lifetime: 1976, 2000 and 2004. These exceptions are instructive.

In 1976, Carter won 50/48, while losing indies 48/52. However, the D/R/I breakdown that year was 37/22/41. The remarkably high number of indies and remarkably low number for Republicans suggests that post-Watergate, a lot of those indies were closet Republicans. In 2000, Dubya won indies 48/46, while narrowly losing the popular vote in a 39/35/26 D/R/I breakdown. In 2004, Dubya won 51/48, but lost indies 48/50 in a 37/37/26 D/R/I breakdown.

None of these exceptions provide much comfort to Team Obama. First, they highlight an overall Democrat ceiling of 37-39%. This was also true in 2008, the worst presidential environment for the GOP since 1976, resulting in a D/R/I break down of 39/32/29. Indeed, the increasing sorting of voters since 1976 suggests 2008′s 32% is a likely floor; this year’s GOP-identifying turnout is very likely to be higher. The 2000 and 2004 results, showing a narrow split in indies, suggest that Obama cannot afford to lose indies by six points, let alone 11 or 14 points.

Does this mean that the polls showing Obama winning overall while losing the independent vote are necessarily wrong, or biased? Not necessarily. Every poll has to be judged on its own strengths and weaknesses in total. Moreover, it is likely that these polls merely prove that Obama’s standing from roughly September 8-12 really did reflect a convention bounce already fading and likely to fade more, but which produced more people willing to identify as Democrats in these polls. I would expect that a week from now, polls may well show Obama with worse numbers overall, but perhaps slightly improved numbers with independents, as the weakest Dems and hardcore liberals shift back to an independent identification.

This post was promoted from GreenRoom to HotAir.com.
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Great, I have one that is 15 months and 1 week old today. It is my responsibility to hand to her a Nation that is better off than it was 25 years ago when I inherited it.

So lets see. Should I allow Obama to fail with his socialism and have America wake up sooner rather than later and be forced to get their fiscal house in order and get rid of cradle to grave socialism? Or should I allow Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan to tinker around the edges, make promises they cannot keep, and put her trillions more in debt than Obama could ever dream of doing?

You see, Romney will be able to change the economy. I think he will be able to convince Americans that they can keep going into debt and put off the hard choices for a long time to come. He will sign legislation that leaves debts for as far as he is in office, and say we are on a path to balance. No one has to suffer for their bad choices, much like Bush did in 2008.

I dunno, I want the battle today, not 12 years from now. I’ll be older and physically weaker then. Eyesight might also not be so awesome.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 6:24 PM

Wasn’t going to engage with you, but you are such a f-ing t*t and it needs to be said.

Where oh where are you getting your predictions? Do you have a gateway to the future? Out of your utopian thoughts where after the dust has settled and out of the economic and foreign rubble (let’s not forget that another four years of Obama might lead to a bomb being aimed at the US) that The Great Conservative Wonder will stumble out and lead us to the Promised Land.

You can guarantee this? You can guarantee that out of the rubble won’t come another socialist? Maybe some other charming talker who will catch the fancy of a tired population?

What the rest of us sane and practical people are saying is that yes, Romney is the status quo and we’ll be fortunate if he waves his hand in the direction of conservatism, but it will also give us time. Are you too blind and willfully ignorant to see the progress that has been made in the last four years? Do you not think that this progress will continue? Do you honestly think that 40+ years of liberal indoctrination can be overturned immediately?

It’s people like you that are just as dangerous as Obama – believing in unicorns and instant gratification.

I hope everyone who reads this understands what a complete moronic baby and fraud you are and ignores you and leaves you to stand on the street corner by yourself waving your fist at the sky.

The only way we’re going to change the process is by working hard, understanding that it’s going to take time and will not be easy.

kim roy on September 16, 2012 at 6:35 PM

internet stalking.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 6:29 PM

Thus speaketh this internet s(hit)talker, faux conservative, fringe loser in life and politics.

bayview on September 16, 2012 at 6:35 PM

Been a while Jpeterman. I changed my mind. But feel free to keep bringing it up. Gotta love internet stalking.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 6:29 PM

Frauds and trolls like you need to be exposed. Paranoia will destroy ya.

JPeterman on September 16, 2012 at 6:36 PM

Allahpundit, since this is your job and only a hobby with us, could you return the favor and advise what sampling model Rasmussen uses in his national 3 day average. Someone here yesterday claimed it was R+4.

on race42012 webste someone with access to premium rasmussen said they use dem+1.

gerrym51 on September 16, 2012 at 6:36 PM

gracie on September 16, 2012 at 5:45 PM

Best advice I can offer is to simply ignore the polls. I don’t trust the polling outfits any more than I do the MSM. In my opinion they are trying to drive an outcome rather than report on a trend.

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 5:50 PM

Once again, my lecture from Friday:

“But, But, Rasmussen is the ONLY “poll” showing Romney with a lead! Why is that?”

Simple.

It is because Rasmussen is the ONLY public opinion surveyor that is not an O’bamna Campaign Donor.

Let’s look at the others.

ABC/WaPo: ABC has been fluffing for O’bamna since 2007, and the WaPo officially endorsed him for pResident in 2008.

C-BS/New York Times: C-BS was busted in 2004 for trying to swing the Presidential Election to the Democrats by using forged documents. Meanwhile, the NY Times had no problems publishing national security secrets to try and bring Bush down. They of course also endorsed O’bamna for president in 2008.

Reuters/Ipsos: Reuters is famous for having been busted for journalstic fraud several years ago, and their tracking “poll” is an online one, so it’s worthless to begin with. Ipsos is French.

NBC/WSJ: NBS’s pro-O’bamna Bias is well-documented.

Gallup: Once the Gold Standard of Public Opinion Polling. However, they started their decline in 1988 when founder George Gallup sold the company; today there are no Gallups even involved with this “poll”. In addition, the New Gallup has been forever tainted by its partnership with CNN, who threw Gallup under the bus in 2007 so they could bring a pro-Hillary “pollster” (ORC) in as their “pollster”.

CNN/ORC: See above. ORC was in fact founded by the world’s biggest Bill and Hillary Clinton Fluffer, a dude named Vinod Gupta. Do a Google photo search on him and you will see plenty of pictures of Viney smiling with a Clinton on each side of his silly grin.

But of course, Rasmussen is the only Biased Poll.

Del Dolemonte on September 16, 2012 at 6:36 PM

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 6:24 PM

You sir are a Robin Williams skit! I can not follow your logic it is so convoluted!

Chewy the Lab on September 16, 2012 at 6:36 PM

Disregarding the polls someone please explain how Obama can possibly win? On what basis will people vote for him? I don’t mean the true believers and parasites, but the people that pushed him to his margin of victory.

I just don’t believe the voters that pushed Obama ahead of McCain will vote for him again. The magic is gone, the hopey changey crap is gone.

So, how does he win?

He doesn’t.

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 6:36 PM

! I do live my life as a free person, taking the responsibility and accolades where they are earned.
astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 5:52 PM

Well, good luck with that if Obama is re-elected. Above you said you want people to suffer through another four years of Obama. Guess what, the ObamaTax isn’t going to pass you by just because you sat out and let him win the election. The economy isn’t going to ignore your circumstances and let you keep the value of your money when things go south. You aren’t going to get a larger gasoline or food ration just because you stayed home and made sure that he got re-elected. Problem with the idea that Americans need to suffer another four years of Obama is that everybody suffers under that four years of Obama. Everybody.

AZfederalist on September 16, 2012 at 6:36 PM

We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.

davidk on September 16, 2012 at 6:27 PM

Does not even say anything about the vote…

Then again, in those days you did not earn the privilege of the vote unless you were a tax paying land owning businessman if I remember correctly. Now any lowlife scum sucking welfare recipient can vote for the wealth of another person to be theirs. Back then, we did not have cradle to grave welfare state to support. We were not a nation of dependents demanding our welfare checks or a refund of our social security taxes in lieu of. Back then, conservatives did not exist, because the founding was new and those things worth conserving were being built. Now conservatism is I guess the preservation of the dependency class of our society from any negative consequences from their lethargic mooching lives.

When there was a party that said they wanted to get rid of the welfare state. When there was a party promising to work towards a constitutional amendment to balance the budget, I was happy to vote for those people every two years, and every year in local votes, at least in Iowa. I kinda dropped the local votes in California, but picked them back up in Arizona. Go Sheriff JOE! That party is gone. Now it is the party of Romney.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 6:37 PM

Just saw on Fox’s America’s News Headquarters show, that if the election was held today, 0bama would win by a pretty good margin.

Mirimichi on September 16, 2012 at 5:48 PM

Well golly gee! Let’s not even have the election then.

I don’t understand how people who can’t grasp simple concepts like dates, as in September 16th isn’t the same actual day as November 6th, can perform such complicated tasks as getting on the internet or putting on their pants all by themselves.

Dark Star on September 16, 2012 at 6:20 PM

Don’t get your undies in a bunch. All I said was what I saw on a Fox program.

Mirimichi on September 16, 2012 at 6:38 PM

Lots of interesting patter guys, but I’ll give you this: if Obama is elected, he will be the LAST democrat for a LONG time. He’s laid waste to possible future candidates and has so poisoned the water that the next one to try will have the hardest hill to climb in political history.

itsspideyman on September 16, 2012 at 6:38 PM

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 5:52 PM

Call the WAAAAAAmbulance!

Sure, you’re an adult. But guess what — adult or child, this election is happening with or without your consent. There are two choices: America or Occupy. You can do whatever you want, but be very, very clear: with the action you take you are choosing either America or Occupy. So stop fooling yourself: If you’re not in the bunker for America, you are on the other side.

Here, it’s better in the original:
Breitbart 2012 CPAC Unity Speech

Dark Star on September 16, 2012 at 6:39 PM

No, I don’t. But, it is pretty depressing to see this stuff all the time though.

Mirimichi on September 16, 2012 at 6:16 PM

“Goooooood. Goooood!” – Obama’s Media

happytobehere on September 16, 2012 at 6:40 PM

This is a really good article on polls from the American Spectator.

The Problem with Obama’s Polls

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 6:11 PM

The most interesting point of information in that article: “According to Pew, the response rate of a typical telephone [political] survey was 36% in 1997 and is just 9% today.”

slickwillie2001 on September 16, 2012 at 6:40 PM

Mr. Chairman, I move the question. Can we just put this damn thing to a vote?

de rigueur on September 16, 2012 at 6:40 PM

internet stalking.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 6:29 PM

Kind of funny coming from a loser like you who finds purpose in life on a friggin political website. Hahahaha. Sheesh you slay me.

CW on September 16, 2012 at 6:41 PM

Lots of interesting patter guys, but I’ll give you this: if Obama is elected, he will be the LAST democrat for a LONG time. He’s laid waste to possible future candidates and has so poisoned the water that the next one to try will have the hardest hill to climb in political history.

itsspideyman on September 16, 2012 at 6:38 PM

That’s only if he hasn’t converted 75% of the population dependent on the government. If that happens the dems will be in power forever.

kim roy on September 16, 2012 at 6:42 PM

No, 0 cannot get re elected.

Bmore on September 16, 2012 at 6:43 PM

Sure, you’re an adult. But guess what — adult or child, this election is happening with or without your consent. There are two choices: America or Occupy. You can do whatever you want, but be very, very clear: with the action you take you are choosing either America or Occupy. So stop fooling yourself: If you’re not in the bunker for America, you are on the other side.

Here, it’s better in the original:
Breitbart 2012 CPAC Unity Speech

Dark Star on September 16, 2012 at 6:39 PM

Breitbart let the enemy into the gates. Breitbart was not even a conservative, he just simply hated the media and the republican party was always the target of the media, so we just happened to be the enemy of Breitbart’s enemy.

America or occupy? Is that really the choice?

What part does Romney play in this skit of yours? Occupy or America? I do not see America in his vision.

The choice is simple.

Unworkable socialism by Obama that has an end date sooner or Unworkable socialism by Romney that has an end date postponed by a decade. Tell me how my view is falsified.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 6:43 PM

Del Dolemonte on September 16, 2012 at 6:36 PM

Reuters/IPSOS had not published result of their daily tracking poll 4 days in a row. It has a built Dems skew, independents there always put Romney ahead, but it still has to hide the poll often when the result did not go its false sell showing Barry pulling away.

bayview on September 16, 2012 at 6:44 PM

slickwillie2001 on September 16, 2012 at 6:40 PM

And if this is still done via landline phones, what are those demos like? I don’t have a landline and haven’t in 6-7 years.

If there are cell phone numbers included, do those people have to opt in to be called? If so, what is the demo of someone who opts in? Being a conservative myself and not one who likes to be disturbed, I will assume that conservatives are less likely than Liberals to opt in to receiving calls from pollsters.

In other words, the accuracy of polls these days is very questionable.

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 6:44 PM

I never really pay ALOT of attention to the polls, as a personal choice, seein’s how MOST of them (regardless of D/R/I sampling)usually come from about ONE THOUSAND PEOPLE that they actually convinced to agree to answer them.

ONE THOUSAND (or so) PEOPLE !!

Not exactly overwhelming, is it ??

pambi on September 16, 2012 at 6:44 PM

Disregarding the polls someone please explain how Obama can possibly win? On what basis will people vote for him? I don’t mean the true believers and parasites, but the people that pushed him to his margin of victory.

I just don’t believe the voters that pushed Obama ahead of McCain will vote for him again. The magic is gone, the hopey changey crap is gone.

So, how does he win?

He doesn’t.

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 6:36 PM

1) Massive union turnout and GOTV.
2) 120% voting rate in urban negrohoods.
3) Massive ballot stuffing (prosecution is raaaacist!).
4) October surprise we don’t know about yet.
5) Possible assassination, real or staged.

Archivarix on September 16, 2012 at 6:45 PM

“Goooooood. Goooood!” – Obama’s Media

happytobehere on September 16, 2012 at 6:40 PM

Yeah, I know, trying to depress the conservative turnout. But, me and mine will be voting.

Mirimichi on September 16, 2012 at 6:45 PM

Disregarding the polls someone please explain how Obama can possibly win? On what basis will people vote for him? I don’t mean the true believers and parasites, but the people that pushed him to his margin of victory.

I just don’t believe the voters that pushed Obama ahead of McCain will vote for him again. The magic is gone, the hopey changey crap is gone.

So, how does he win?

He doesn’t.

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 6:36 PM

1) Massive union turnout and GOTV.
2) 120% voting rate in urban ghettos.
3) Massive ballot stuffing (prosecution is raaaacist!).
4) October surprise we don’t know about yet.
5) Possible assassination, real or staged.

Archivarix on September 16, 2012 at 6:45 PM

You totally exude the air of an SEIU thug.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 5:59 PM

You ‘exhude an air’ of ineptness, but then am sure I am not the only one who told you that….

jimver on September 16, 2012 at 6:45 PM

This is a really good article on polls from the American Spectator.

The Problem with Obama’s Polls

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 6:11 PM

Prezactly!

Chewy the Lab on September 16, 2012 at 6:45 PM

Here, it’s better in the original:
Breitbart 2012 CPAC Unity Speech

Dark Star on September 16, 2012 at 6:39 PM

Please don’t get him started on Brietbart. He hates him too. Enjoy.

JPeterman on September 16, 2012 at 6:46 PM

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 6:24 PM

I think you should pull the lever for 0 this November.

Bmore on September 16, 2012 at 6:46 PM

That’s only if he hasn’t converted 75% of the population dependent on the government. If that happens the dems will be in power forever.

kim roy on September 16, 2012 at 6:42 PM

Romney has no desire to kick the dependents off the welfare dime. If he was, I would back him. But he does not. his great plan is to promise to keep the welfare checks coming forever. Got news for you. So long as the welfare state exists, there will be plenty of people who will lie cheat and steal to get their hands on their share of the proceeds. Look at the disability numbers!

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 6:46 PM

If Obama wins there’ll never be another chance to undo the damage. All we will get is democrats and socialist ones at that. If we ever do get a non-socialist after Obama wins in 2012, they will get about 4 weeks to create utopie, then the people will decry anything that looks like “austerity”

Romney may not be perfect, but he will work with the rest of the GOP. And for heaven’s sake won’t it be a relief to have a President who is held to some sort of standard and not allowed to lie, lie lie?

clnurnberg on September 16, 2012 at 6:46 PM

kim roy on September 16, 2012 at 6:42 PM

The money doesn’t exist for it to go on forever. If Obama is reelected and is able to continue growing the welfare state it will eventually collapse. It has to, there isn’t enough money.

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 6:47 PM

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 6:36 PM

Someone, maybe Wayne Alan Root, published an article last spring that went through each voting demographic showing how Obama maxed his vote in each group in 2008. There is no way how he can get more votes in each group this year. In each voting group he WILL lose votes.

That’s why the attempt to demoralize the right and also to get new voters through lax voter id laws and signing up illegal voters.

esr1951 on September 16, 2012 at 6:47 PM

1) Massive union turnout and GOTV.
2) 120% voting rate in urban ghettos.
3) Massive ballot stuffing (prosecution is raaaacist!).
4) October surprise we don’t know about yet.
5) Possible assassination, real or staged.

Archivarix on September 16, 2012 at 6:45 PM

Back in the day, you would totally be branded as Eeyore!

Chewy the Lab on September 16, 2012 at 6:48 PM

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 6:47 PM

Can you even guess what the long term debt will be in 2016 if he gets a second term?? You are right..it will collapse before we get there.

esr1951 on September 16, 2012 at 6:49 PM

taking accolades where they are earned.
astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 5:52 PM

accolade is a fair maiden you will never meet in your miserable loser life.

bayview on September 16, 2012 at 6:49 PM

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 6:37 PM

You just don’t get it.

People have sacrificed so those words become a reality. People have gone without arms and eyes, husbands and daddies, brothers and sons.

Those words are sealed by the blood and tears of countless peoples.

And you want to flush it all away just to prove a point.

davidk on September 16, 2012 at 6:49 PM

Disregarding the polls someone please explain how Obama can possibly win? On what basis will people vote for him? I don’t mean the true believers and parasites, but the people that pushed him to his margin of victory.

I just don’t believe the voters that pushed Obama ahead of McCain will vote for him again. The magic is gone, the hopey changey crap is gone.

So, how does he win?

He doesn’t.

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 6:36 PM

An Obama win is extremely unlikely. But the way he could do it is if the Republican vote is so severely depressed by polling and media bias (but I repeat myself) that Obama wins by default with his fervent supporters.

Look, a good 40% of this country believes that Obama was born from a Unicorn in a far off land and sent here to save us. You might think the magic of hopenchange is gone but for a huge number of very weak people it’s all they have. They don’t have families, they don’t love God, the don’t even have love of Country… Obama and the altar of LiberalismAbortion is all they have. There are millions of these poor souls. And they will be voting for Obama.

The “fair minded” voters that pushed Obama over the edge last time? Correct, they will not be voting for him this time. But if the Obama Media Complex can depress turnout of Republicans and McCain voters this time they could theoretically win it by a slim margin.

Again, I don’t think that will happen. I think Obama will lose. But we need to keep our powder dry because there’s a long way to go and the Media is just getting started.

happytobehere on September 16, 2012 at 6:49 PM

clnurnberg on September 16, 2012 at 6:46 PM

We could always escape the damage by literally splitting the country between Red and Blue and becoming two countries.

Why should we accept socialism? Why should we accept DC diktats? Why should we be the hosts for the welfare state parasites?

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 6:50 PM

This is not 2004, it’s 1980. Here’s a quote from Time Magazine, Sept. 15, 1980, analyzing its recent CNN/Time poll. Six things to note:

1. Race was virtually tied.
2. Time claimed few people were undecided.
3. Not much enthusiasm for either candidate.
4. Voters were voting against each candidate, not for him.
5. People trusted Carter more in terms of getting things done and in foreign affairs.
6. Media focused more on Reagan’s weaknesses than Carter’s.

All this sounds familiar, given the state of the 2012 race today:

[A] surprisingly low 7% of registered voters claim to be undecided about whom they now favor. (The study was based on a national sample of 1,644 registered voters interviewed between Aug. 26 and 28. The sampling error is thus plus or minus 3% and 4.5% when comparing present trend readings with previous TIME studies.) Still, the survey discloses just how shaky those current preferences are. Fully 55% say they are not “personally interested or excited about” any of the candidates. Only 11% report genuine enthusiasm for Reagan; a mere 9% feel that way about Carter and 6% about Anderson. In fact, much of the support given their preferred candidates is based on voters’ opposition to the others, the choices are essentially anti votes. Thus 43% of the voters who prefer Reagan say they do so because they are “really voting against Carter.” Similarly, 34% of Carter’s supporters say their choice is based on opposition to Reagan, while a hefty 61% of Anderson’s followers admit that they are motivated by being “against Carter and Reagan.”

Though Carter and Reagan are even up in the race, the poll discloses areas of serious slippage for Reagan in important areas. For one thing, 59% of those preferring Carter claim they do so out of a positive feeling for him: they like his “experience,” and consider him “safer” in foreign affairs. Only 48% of Reagan’s followers feel a similar sense of confidence in their choice’s ability to get things done and to answer the need for a change. At the same time, Reagan’s rating on abilities regarded as important by voters has declined. In TIME’s last survey in May, 49% of those sampled agreed that Reagan was a leader “you can trust,” while 42% believe that now. Reagan was then considered “acceptable” as a President by 64%; the current figure is 54%. Voter confidence in Reagan’s ability to handle the economy has dropped from an impressive 75% to 66%, and his perceived competency in foreign affairs has slipped from 72% to 63%. The Californian still worries voters on a basic level: 54% of those surveyed feel that he often does not get his facts straight, and 48% fret that he may be “trigger happy.”

writeblock on September 16, 2012 at 6:52 PM

Lots of interesting patter guys, but I’ll give you this: if Obama is elected, he will be the LAST democrat for a LONG time. He’s laid waste to possible future candidates and has so poisoned the water that the next one to try will have the hardest hill to climb in political history.

itsspideyman on September 16, 2012 at 6:38 PM

Understand this spidey, and astonerii, if Obama gets re-elected there won’t be a next time.

davidk on September 16, 2012 at 6:52 PM

If we had voters who paid attention to the issues facing this country instead of gluing their eyeballs to the Kardashians and that stupid googoo baby whatever then yea, maybe he could find his rightful position in history as a one term president. However, there are far too many voters who gush at the site of him and never ever ever read about what’s going on in the real world. And they will vote for the empty chair.

scalleywag on September 16, 2012 at 6:52 PM

Uh oh. Drudge says Politico preparing a hit piece on the Romney campaign.

esr1951 on September 16, 2012 at 6:53 PM

Can anyone explain why I stil see more Obama commercials in VA than Romney? Is it that he’s counting on all the calamitous news to offset Obama’s ad blitz? Drop the hammer on him after the debates begin? Any ideas?

The Count on September 16, 2012 at 6:54 PM

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 6:46 PM

I really mean it, pull the lever for 0, do it for you daughter. It’s will brighten her future in ways you can’t yet imagine. Voting for Romney may harm that future in ways you haven’t imagined yet. So do it, do it for her.

Bmore on September 16, 2012 at 6:55 PM

The Florida Times Union has said 11,365 people registered as Democratic voters in the 13 months that ended at the end of August, compared with an average of 209,425 for the same periods before the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections.

Meanwhile, 128,039 Republicans have registered in the state over the past 13 months, up from an average of 103,555 in the same period in 2004 and 2008, the newspaper said.

Whoa?

SouthernGent on September 16, 2012 at 6:55 PM

Lots of interesting patter guys, but I’ll give you this: if Obama is elected, he will be the LAST democrat for a LONG time. He’s laid waste to possible future candidates and has so poisoned the water that the next one to try will have the hardest hill to climb in political history.

itsspideyman on September 16, 2012 at 6:38 PM

Understand this spidey, and astonerii, if Obama gets re-elected there won’t be a next time.

davidk on September 16, 2012 at 6:52 PM

Seconded.

Archivarix on September 16, 2012 at 6:56 PM

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 6:24 PM

I think you should pull the lever for 0 this November.

Bmore on September 16, 2012 at 6:46 PM

He usually stays home and pulls his pud.

bayview on September 16, 2012 at 6:56 PM

Uh oh. Drudge says Politico preparing a hit piece on the Romney campaign.
esr1951 on September 16, 2012 at 6:53 PM

I’d ask why we don’t get that kind of dirt on Obama’s campaign, but I know better.

The Count on September 16, 2012 at 6:56 PM

scalleywag on September 16, 2012 at 6:52 PM

I support a poll test. If you are utterly clueless about our government and current issues then you have no business voting.

I also support some kind of measure to disallow people who receive government support not backed by contributions (social security, Medicare, unemployment) from voting. You shouldn’t be allowed to vote for the guy who promises to rob your neighbors for your welfare check.

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 6:57 PM

Uh oh. Drudge says Politico preparing a hit piece on the Romney campaign.

esr1951 on September 16, 2012 at 6:53 PM

Trying to change the subject once again. It’s all they have. Can’t wait to hear what all of those “anonymous” sources have to say/

JPeterman on September 16, 2012 at 6:57 PM

He usually stays home and pulls his pud.

bayview on September 16, 2012 at 6:56 PM

Heh. Pudwhacker. There’s a word I ain’t used in a coon’s age.

Lanceman on September 16, 2012 at 6:57 PM

SouthernGent on September 16, 2012 at 6:55 PM

That IS amazing!

esr1951 on September 16, 2012 at 6:58 PM

Uh oh. Drudge says Politico preparing a hit piece on the Romney campaign.

esr1951 on September 16, 2012 at 6:53 PM

LOL. The Obama Media has much more in store for us. Don’t worry, it will most assuredly get worse. It’s still very early. Expect this to get very bumpy.

happytobehere on September 16, 2012 at 6:58 PM

Allahpundit, since this is your job and only a hobby with us, could you return the favor and advise what sampling model Rasmussen uses in his national 3 day average. Someone here yesterday claimed it was R+4.

on race42012 webste someone with access to premium rasmussen said they use dem+1.

gerrym51 on September 16, 2012 at 6:36 PM

Thank you Gerry. Comparing Rasmussen with the MSM Pro Obama polls, I assumed the model was D+1 or D+2.

I think the turnout will be no worse that R=D and since Romney is winning with Independents, and the polls indicate that he is getting more D votes than Obama is getting R votes, will therefore win.

Basilsbest on September 16, 2012 at 6:58 PM

I’m going to stick with track record. Rasmussen has shown great accuracy in their polling and was the most accurate in 2008 predicting Obama’s win nearly dead on (along with Pew).

Obama won by 7 points. He has lost more than 7 points of support among women, young voters, latino and black Americans, practically every affinity group. Romney is pulling more crossover Dems than Obama is pulling crossover Republicans. Those were according to Gallup last time I drill down into their numbers about a month ago.

I really don’t see how Obama can pull it off. The one major problem right now is that people are not registering Democrat like they once were, either.

You hear griping that Florida registration laws “devastated” Democrat registrations but that really isn’t so. Voters are still registering, they just aren’t registering Democrat. Independent registrations in Florida are up 400% from 2008, Republican registrations up 200%, Democrat registrations down 90%.

crosspatch on September 16, 2012 at 6:59 PM

ONE THOUSAND (or so) PEOPLE !!

Not exactly overwhelming, is it ??

pambi on September 16, 2012 at 6:44 PM

Actually, it is. 1000 is way more than you really need. In fact, in my statistics courses, it was common knowledge that after the 21st sample, you could get a good idea how things were going to go for the rest of the samples within a very high confidence level. This was on the condition that your 21 samples were truly random. That’s not always the case with polling and the DRI split throws a wrench into that. But 1000 is more than adequate.

Everyone says it’s going to be about turnout and they’re right. But also, Romney is winning Indies. It’s not just about turnout. It’s about Dems being able to turnout MORE than Republicans. This is why the media is amplifying their drumbeat. Romney is not going down in the polls. He is holding steady while gaining some women and indies. By the time election day gets here, Romney will be far ahead if this trend continues. Obama is losing the women vote. The media knows this. They knew it a while back. Hence the war on women. It backfired.

MrX on September 16, 2012 at 6:59 PM

JPeterman on September 16, 2012 at 6:57 PM

You are right. I know you’re right. Trying to stay calm…

This election may be the death of me.

esr1951 on September 16, 2012 at 7:00 PM

Uh oh. Drudge says Politico preparing a hit piece on the Romney campaign.
esr1951 on September 16, 2012 at 6:53 PM

Why do RINO squish like Romney continue to hire the same backstabbing losers for their campaign team?

bgibbs1000 on September 16, 2012 at 7:01 PM

Understand this spidey, and astonerii, if Obama gets re-elected there won’t be a next time.

davidk on September 16, 2012 at 6:52 PM

Too true.

Lanceman on September 16, 2012 at 7:01 PM

You are right. I know you’re right. Trying to stay calm…

This election may be the death of me.

esr1951 on September 16, 2012 at 7:00 PM

I have already put my name on the list for a liver transplant. :(

JPeterman on September 16, 2012 at 7:02 PM

If there are cell phone numbers included, do those people have to opt in to be called? If so, what is the demo of someone who opts in? Being a conservative myself and not one who likes to be disturbed, I will assume that conservatives are less likely than Liberals to opt in to receiving calls from pollsters.

In other words, the accuracy of polls these days is very questionable.

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 6:44 PM

Let yourself be polled for God’s sake! We need to. So we can shout Romney! Get his numbers up and people will feel more confident. Plus have you considered that some of those polls are internals for Romney so he can know how his campaign is doing and where to spend money or not. Come on answer that phone!

Robb on September 16, 2012 at 7:02 PM

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 6:46 PM

So it’s settled then? You cast your vote for 0. Most of the rest of us here are going for Romney. Sure we will be voting against your daughters interests, according to you. Just explain to her when she gets all grown up, we screwed up, you were correct all along. That will be a great conversation I’m sure.

Bmore on September 16, 2012 at 7:02 PM

Let yourself be polled for God’s sake! We need to. So we can shout Romney! Get his numbers up and people will feel more confident. Plus have you considered that some of those polls are internals for Romney so he can know how his campaign is doing and where to spend money or not. Come on answer that phone!

Robb on September 16, 2012 at 7:02 PM

I really don’t see how these polls do not WILDLY reflect wishful thinking by the liberal media. There is no way there will be more Democrats voting in November than Republicans. NO.WAY.

deadrody on September 16, 2012 at 7:03 PM

The only explanation is evengelicals abandoning the Mormon.

rickyricardo on September 16, 2012 at 7:03 PM

Uh oh. Drudge says Politico preparing a hit piece on the Romney campaign.
esr1951 on September 16, 2012 at 6:53 PM

It is not breaking news. 98% of what Politico published were hit pieces on Romney.

bayview on September 16, 2012 at 7:04 PM

Uh oh. Drudge says Politico preparing a hit piece on the Romney campaign.
esr1951 on September 16, 2012 at 6:53 PM

How that would be different from all their other posts?

Archivarix on September 16, 2012 at 7:05 PM

The media bias is going to continue. When President Romney holds his first press conference, he should play a video of the questions asked of President Obama at Obama’s first press conference including, “What have you found the most charming aspect of being president?”. Then, after playing those questions, President Romney can ask the assembled gaggle of media vultures, “OK boys, what questions do you have for me today?”

AZfederalist on September 16, 2012 at 7:05 PM

The only explanation is evengelicals abandoning the Mormon.

rickyricardo on September 16, 2012 at 7:03 PM

Not this evangelical.

And I think Mormonism is horrendous.

davidk on September 16, 2012 at 7:05 PM

MrX on September 16, 2012 at 6:59 PM

Well said. But they ARE trying to demoralize our side, and we have to constantly fight against that and continue to point out the positive…ESPECIALLY to the fence sitters and the squishes who, (even though they don’t want to admit it) want to have voted for a winner. I’m not technically adept enough to post an emoticon that I would love to see: a stuffed donkey with his tail tacked on with a giant red circle with a red line through it!

Chewy the Lab on September 16, 2012 at 7:08 PM

I also support some kind of measure to disallow people who receive government support not backed by contributions (social security, Medicare, unemployment) from voting. You shouldn’t be allowed to vote for the guy who promises to rob your neighbors for your welfare check.
Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 6:57 PM

I think you should either have to bring your prior year’s W2 or your SS statement (with photo Id) in order to vote on US Congress/Presidential ballots. If you have no skin in the game, you should have no say in the matter.

The Count on September 16, 2012 at 7:08 PM

Breaking News on Reuters: Chicago Teachers Union says strike to continue, no school on Monday.

bayview on September 16, 2012 at 7:09 PM

Save your breath, that one is an Obot pretending to be a conservative.

;)

JPeterman on September 16, 2012 at 6:19 PM

Thanks JPeterman. I belatedly figured that out when he listed every non-kosher Ryan vote in one post & in the next claimed Newt was his guy.

Not, btw, that I don’t like Newt — I do. But I was around & cognizant during the 1990s — Newt’s got some not-so-great votes on his record too, at least to the extent that a person who claims Ryan isn’t “conservative enough” would never then point to Newt’s record as an example of “pure conservative.”

Geez, these trolls must think we were born yesterday.

Dark Star on September 16, 2012 at 7:09 PM

Dark Star on September 16, 2012 at 7:09 PM

Ditto. Heh!

I think they think we are as clueless and dumb about history as they are.

avagreen on September 16, 2012 at 7:11 PM

If people vote for Obama for the second time, we deserve the fate of Greece. Every people deserve their Government,

I’ve seen this sentiment expressed many times here and I don’t understand this “we deserve it” business. Please kindly speak for yourself, as I certainly don’t believe that anyone who did not vote for the man deserves the hardships and suffering that has come to this country as a result of this administration. Mr. Hoaxbama never deserved to become president…and those of us that are completely disapproving of his policies did not make this mess. We can’t stop him, although I know just about everyone that comes here wishes they could. And all we can do is endure watching him slowly destroy this nation.
We deserve better.

lynncgb on September 16, 2012 at 7:11 PM

Well said. But they ARE trying to demoralize our side, and we have to constantly fight against that and continue to point out the positive…

Chewy the Lab on September 16, 2012 at 7:08 PM

Nothing works on demoralizing our side like Mitt Romney sitting on his war chest and a monstrous pile of PAC money and taking jabs like a hired sparring underdog.

Archivarix on September 16, 2012 at 7:12 PM

The only explanation is evengelicals abandoning the Mormon.

rickyricardo on September 16, 2012 at 7:03 PM

Every Christian that I know would rather vote for a Mormon than a socialist!

Really……no choice at all.

Even my grown daughter who has been a staunch lib has said she’s voting Republican this year.

avagreen on September 16, 2012 at 7:14 PM

The Count on September 16, 2012 at 6:54 PM

Only my speculation, but it’s possible the Obama ads aren’t moving the Romney campaign internals, so they feel no need to counter the ads right now. Although Powerline disagrees.

For the past month, Romney’s been spending about $2.3 million/week on tv advertising, 77-78% negative. To date he’s spent about $73.9 million, $4.5 million in the NoVA/DC area. Using that proportion, you can estimate he’s spending a little over $140,000 a week in the NoVA/DC region.

Although it seems to me that precise ad targeting for the remaining 4%-6% “undecided” needed to put him over the top is going to be more effective for Romney than debates, so that I would be carpet bombing everywhere right now, perhaps Romney doesn’t want to repeat Obama’s spring/summer mistake and blow $100 million on an ad blitz that accomplished nothing. 6 weeks to go, maybe Romney’s pacing himself. Maybe.

de rigueur on September 16, 2012 at 7:14 PM

Let yourself be polled for God’s sake! We need to. So we can shout Romney! Get his numbers up and people will feel more confident.

Robb on September 16, 2012 at 7:02 PM

At this point in the campaign, it won’t matter. If they get a high enough Romney response, they will just adjust the democrat turnout knob and go from +5 D to +10 D as needed. They are trying to shape opinion right now, not measure it.

Your point regarding if it is an internal poll is potentially valid.

AZfederalist on September 16, 2012 at 7:14 PM

Don’t get your undies in a bunch. All I said was what I saw on a Fox program.

Mirimichi on September 16, 2012 at 6:38 PM

Don’t get yours either. I was talking about the general “people” who would believe/be influence by tripe like “if the election were held TODAY.”

If you’re not one of them, then I wasn’t talking about you.

Dark Star on September 16, 2012 at 7:15 PM

I don’t think it matters one bit what the polls say. This is a year of broken glass voters, nothing will stop them from getting to the ballot box on Nov 6. They are already quite depressed, thank you, Mr. Obama.

JimK on September 16, 2012 at 7:16 PM

Uh oh. Drudge says Politico preparing a hit piece on the Romney campaign.
esr1951 on September 16, 2012 at 6:53 PM

Puleeze! These headlines from Drudge, and you’re panties are in a bunch over a hit piece on infighting in the Romney campaign??:

LIBYAN OFFICIAL WARNED USA ’3 DAYS BEFORE ATTACK’…
Ambassador Rice: Attack NOT Premeditated…
Libyan president: ‘No doubt’ was ‘preplanned’ starting months ago…
BREAKING: Video Purports To Show US Ambassador Dragged, Cheers From Crowd…
4 US soldiers die in weekend ‘insider’ attacks in Afghanistan…
Sudan rejects U.S. request to send Marines to guard embassy..PM calls for protection for citizens…
Armada Massing As ‘Israel Prepares Iran Strike’…
Netanyahu warns Tehran only months away from nuke weapon fuel…
Makes His Case…
IRAN: OIL $150

Chewy the Lab on September 16, 2012 at 7:20 PM

Also, there are millions of unemployed out there who either don’t have a phone anymore or are not answering because debt collectors are looking for them.

The other thing the pollsters are reporting is 96% of the people they do reach are refusing to participate in the polls. So statistically, some 5% of the US population is responding to these polls over and over again.

Telephone polls just aren’t what they used to be.

crosspatch on September 16, 2012 at 7:20 PM

At this point in the campaign, it won’t matter. If they get a high enough Romney response, they will just adjust the democrat turnout knob and go from +5 D to +10 D as needed. They are trying to shape opinion right now, not measure it.

Your point regarding if it is an internal poll is potentially valid.

AZfederalist on September 16, 2012 at 7:14 PM

Then let’s shout Romney then say that we’re democrats.

Robb on September 16, 2012 at 7:20 PM

I think you should either have to bring your prior year’s W2 or your SS statement (with photo Id) in order to vote on US Congress/Presidential ballots. If you have no skin in the game, you should have no say in the matter.

The Count on September 16, 2012 at 7:08 PM

Then any largesse provided to those in need would truly be from compassion and not the people voting themselves the treasury. We are going to have to get to some measure of reforming the system such that the takers are not able to dictate terms to the makers. As it is, there is no gratitude from people on government subsidy, instead they continually wail that it is not enough, we aren’t rowing the boat fast enough, they can’t get their skis out of the water yet.

AZfederalist on September 16, 2012 at 7:21 PM

Thank you Gerry. Comparing Rasmussen with the MSM Pro Obama polls, I assumed the model was D+1 or D+2.

just to be precise. this is for the TRACKING poll. I do not know if all Rasmussens polls use the same.

gerry

gerrym51 on September 16, 2012 at 7:22 PM

Someone, maybe Wayne Alan Root, published an article last spring that went through each voting demographic showing how Obama maxed his vote in each group in 2008. There is no way how he can get more votes in each group this year. In each voting group he WILL lose votes.

That’s why the attempt to demoralize the right and also to get new voters through lax voter id laws and signing up illegal voters.

esr1951 on September 16, 2012 at 6:47 PM

It was Wayne Allyn Root. Original article is here. (Yes I have it bookmarked when the media noise gets too hysterical).

Interestingly, Root — who ran as VP on the Libertarian ticket — recently resigned from the NLC & endorsed Romney. Even he sees what a b.s. option it is to go 3rd party this year.

Please don’t get him started on Brietbart. He hates him too. Enjoy.

JPeterman on September 16, 2012 at 6:46 PM

Thanks again. I’m a day late & a dollar short figuring that one out too. I would say I should start coming here more often during day light hours instead of just QOTD, but I’m not so sure about that. :-)

Dark Star on September 16, 2012 at 7:23 PM

The thought of Obama at the helm for the next 4 years & the Justices he would appoint to Supreme Court should be reason enough to not stay home this election. This is the most important election of my lifetime.

redridinghood on September 16, 2012 at 7:26 PM

People have sacrificed so those words become a reality. People have gone without arms and eyes, husbands and daddies, brothers and sons.

Those words are sealed by the blood and tears of countless peoples.
davidk on September 16, 2012 at 6:49 PM

Disabled War Vet…
No, I would much rather American’s own up to their failures and end the welfare state on their own. Newt convinced them to give up some of it in the 1990′s. But now we have Ryan and Romney promising to extend the poisoning policies for generations to come and Republicans eating it up like mana from heaven. Conservatives who demand refunds on their Social Security payments with interest as if they are owed something and were not just suckers, but if they cannot get theirs that way, then my daughter will be paying for her whole life for their retirement and Viagra fixes.

Is that the America I was disabled defending? If so, I want my ability back! I did not defend America so its citizens could be perpetual dependents demanding money from every other person’s children, which is what all this spending in deficit is. I was accepted into MIT on a partial, having been submitted there by my science teacher. I declined it and joined the Marines, not serving my nation was ever an option to me. Every last one of my uncles served, both my grandfather’s served, and their fathers. Would have been nice if they would have taught me the difference between enlisted and officer as a kid, I might have went to MIT. My dad was about the only man in my life that did not serve, he died when I was 6. Dependency on government is not something I fought and sacrificed for. Neither was bailing out wall street, or car companies, or handing out prescription drugs, or no child left behind. All of which should be considered unconstitutional. The thing that I was sworn in to protect as Marine.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 7:26 PM

Archivarix on September 16, 2012 at 7:12 PM

I agree. He should be spending the $ and fighting back. I am frustrated that if one looks at the MSM it looks like Obama is running unopposed. Having said that, I remember a line from an old cowboy movie that goes something like:

“It’s quite out there, Clem. Too quite if you ask me. Makes me think the Injuns Native American homogenius personages is up to somethin’! They’s a sneaky bunch, ya’ know!

Chewy the Lab on September 16, 2012 at 7:27 PM

Then let’s shout Romney then say that we’re democrats.

Robb on September 16, 2012 at 7:20 PM

Now that idea has some merit. :-)

AZfederalist on September 16, 2012 at 7:28 PM

Scheesh! QUIET, not Quite! Sorry.

Chewy the Lab on September 16, 2012 at 7:28 PM

The thought of Obama at the helm for the next 4 years & the Justices he would appoint to Supreme Court should be reason enough to not stay home this election. This is the most important election of my lifetime.

redridinghood on September 16, 2012 at 7:26 PM

Romney appointed through committee a total of 20% Mass. Republicans, the rest were out and out activist progressives.
He also neglected to fill many seats that he left for his democrat successor to fill.
I really do not see a major difference. The only reason hariet meyers never made it to confirmation was because she did not have any qualifications for the job, not because she was a sure vote against conservative government.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 7:30 PM

Chewy the Lab on September 16, 2012 at 7:20 PM

Sigh. I have already panicked over those headlines. It was the new one that caught my eye.

It is going to be very tough until the election.

esr1951 on September 16, 2012 at 7:31 PM

If the Democrats are trying to suppress voter turnout overall, with the belief that the less amount of people voting, the better chance Obama has of winning, then how does it help them to lead people to believe that Obama is winning if he’s really either losing or tied? All that would do is make unenthusiastic Democrats that much more complacent.

On the other hand, if the polls showed Romney winning, it could make his victory look inevitable, and that might cause swing voters to back the winner.

If the polls show that the race is tied (which is what a lot of people are saying is the case), it could motivate Republicans to get out the vote in order to put Romney over the top.

So when you really analyze it, assuming that most of these pollsters are dishonest and are willing to put up whatever numbers the Democrats ask them to, there’s really no way to fudge the numbers that helps Obama.

ardenenoch on September 16, 2012 at 7:34 PM

de rigueur on September 16, 2012 at 7:14 PM

I’m in soviet VA (nova) and actually just saw that classroom size commercial powerline mentions. Most of them are pro-abortion commercials though.

Jim Moron is my congressman. In 2010 the GOP ran this normal inoffensive candidate that I guess they thought could win. Moron still got 66%. They may think advertising here is a waste of money. People here are democrat voting robots and turn out no matter what.

The Count on September 16, 2012 at 7:34 PM

You have 2 choices this election. Those that are not planning on voting this election quit wasting your time & our time on this forum.

redridinghood on September 16, 2012 at 7:39 PM

The Press are just like attorneys, they typically will not ask a question that they do not have the answer to. The main question, “why isn’t Romney winning with all of the economic problems in the U.S.”, the answer: because we are against him.

La Shana Tova for all of my friends.

DDay on September 16, 2012 at 7:39 PM

AZfederalist on September 16, 2012 at 7:21 PM

Problem is it will never happen though. The Democrat leisure class will never vote to disenfranchise themselves. Maybe after the country collapses we can write it into the next constitution.

The Count on September 16, 2012 at 7:39 PM

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