Can Obama get reelected losing the independent vote?

posted at 5:31 pm on September 16, 2012 by Karl

The answer is “yes,” if you believe a number of the polls currently in the Real Clear Politics poll average… but that’s a sizable if. The NYT/CBS poll shows Pres. Obama winning by 3 points among likely voters… but losing independents to Mitt Romney 44/50. The WaPo/ABC News poll shows Obama up by a point, while losing independents by 11 points, 43/54. The CNN/ORC poll (.pdf) shows Obama winning by six overall, but losing independents by a whopping 14 points, 40/54. Ironically, given people’s perceptions of poll bias, the Fox poll has Obama winning overall and winning indies by a similar 5 point margin.

Historically, a candidate cannot win the presidency while losing independent votes. However, it has happened thrice in my lifetime: 1976, 2000 and 2004. These exceptions are instructive.

In 1976, Carter won 50/48, while losing indies 48/52. However, the D/R/I breakdown that year was 37/22/41. The remarkably high number of indies and remarkably low number for Republicans suggests that post-Watergate, a lot of those indies were closet Republicans. In 2000, Dubya won indies 48/46, while narrowly losing the popular vote in a 39/35/26 D/R/I breakdown. In 2004, Dubya won 51/48, but lost indies 48/50 in a 37/37/26 D/R/I breakdown.

None of these exceptions provide much comfort to Team Obama. First, they highlight an overall Democrat ceiling of 37-39%. This was also true in 2008, the worst presidential environment for the GOP since 1976, resulting in a D/R/I break down of 39/32/29. Indeed, the increasing sorting of voters since 1976 suggests 2008′s 32% is a likely floor; this year’s GOP-identifying turnout is very likely to be higher. The 2000 and 2004 results, showing a narrow split in indies, suggest that Obama cannot afford to lose indies by six points, let alone 11 or 14 points.

Does this mean that the polls showing Obama winning overall while losing the independent vote are necessarily wrong, or biased? Not necessarily. Every poll has to be judged on its own strengths and weaknesses in total. Moreover, it is likely that these polls merely prove that Obama’s standing from roughly September 8-12 really did reflect a convention bounce already fading and likely to fade more, but which produced more people willing to identify as Democrats in these polls. I would expect that a week from now, polls may well show Obama with worse numbers overall, but perhaps slightly improved numbers with independents, as the weakest Dems and hardcore liberals shift back to an independent identification.

This post was promoted from GreenRoom to HotAir.com.
To see the comments on the original post, look here.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2 3 4

Can Romney get elected by depressing the conservative vote?

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 5:33 PM

Polls manipulated by Odumbo’s adoring legion of media lap dogs. Remember 1980, our Kenyan, Muslim president will win Masshole, Minnesota, and Kalifornia.

skanter on September 16, 2012 at 5:34 PM

Hence the demoralization efforts. Losing the independent vote + the enthusiasm gap = President Romney.

Gingotts on September 16, 2012 at 5:35 PM

no

rob verdi on September 16, 2012 at 5:35 PM

An insufferable ass is an insufferable ass, of course, of course
And no one can talk sense to an insufferable ass, of course
And especially, of course, if the insufferable ass is the famous Barack Obama
Go right to the source and ask the insufferable ass
He’ll give you the answer that deceivers will endorse
He’s always on a dissemblers course
Talk to Barack Obama

Barack Obama just yakkity yaks a streak and wastes your time of day
Does any sane person even believe anymore a single thing he has to say?
An insufferable ass is an insufferable ass, of course, of course
And this one’ll talk in prevaricating circles til his voice is hoarse
You never heard of a talking insufferable ass?
Well, listen to this
He is Barack Obama!

Cheshire Cat on September 16, 2012 at 5:36 PM

Can Obama get re-elected by endangering more American lives?

I guess we will find out in November…

Electrongod on September 16, 2012 at 5:37 PM

Obama is a weak candidate…but Romney is more so.

This should be a cakewalk considering the last four years.

Interestingly, Romney is running an ok campaign. But you can only do so much with the candidate as he is, especially since the Democrats, and the State Media, have been preparing to run against Romney since at least 2010.

Romney in 2012 needs to clear separate himself from the previous versions of Romney…but he won’t because he doesn’t want to.

The American people are open to a conservative reformer…like his VP choice.

But if we have two liberals running against each other – an extremist vs a technocrat then the election is merely going to be a question of how well the State Media can paper over the economy.

18-1 on September 16, 2012 at 5:38 PM

No. IMO Obama can’t win because he won’t be able to repeat several critical factors that led him to victory in 2008.

1. The black and Hispanic votes were at a historic high. They won’t be this time.
2. The college vote won’t be as high.
3. Independents who were willing to give him a chance won’t this time. Not in numbers he needs.
4. The GOP/TEA Party base is chomping at the bit to get rid of him. Some people act as if 2010 didn’t happen or that the zeal has dissipated.
5. Obama now has a record and it’s abysmal.
6. Gas prices are 100% higher than when he took office.

And from the American Spectator:

Do not let these polls fool you. In 1980 similar polls showed Jimmy Carter leading the Old Cowboy almost to the very end. Carter was ahead of Governor Ronald Reagan by 4 points in late September, by 8 points in October, and the Gallup polls had him ahead of Reagan by 6 points in last days of the election. Reagan won by 9 points, sweeping 44 states. In 1988 Governor Dukakis at one point led Vice President George H. W. Bush by 17 points. He lost by almost 8 points.

Mitt is in better shape than both Reagan and Bush I at this point in the race.

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 5:38 PM

Can Romney get elected by depressing the conservative vote?

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 5:33 PM

An adult cannot have his vote “depressed.” An adult puts his big boy pants on and goes and votes the way he wants to vote. An adult lives his life as a free person, taking both responsibility and accolades where they are earned. Lemme guess: You think a Youtube video “caused” the embassy attacks last week.

Rational Thought on September 16, 2012 at 5:38 PM

Better question: Can Governor Romney win without the Paulinas?

slickwillie2001 on September 16, 2012 at 5:39 PM

Can Obama get reelected losing the independent vote?

Romney and Obama have to win states and secure the Electoral Votes. Winning 51% and 100% of most states has the exact same impact. Maine and Nebraska IIRC are the exception. Bush lost the popular vote and won anyway.

sharrukin on September 16, 2012 at 5:40 PM

Can Romney get elected by depressing the conservative vote?

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 5:33 PM

If a GOP voter stays home because Mitt is the nominee then IMO they are no conservative. Defeating Obama is the only conservative choice and that can’t be done by sitting home and pouting.

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 5:40 PM

No. However much you may wish it otherwise.

MisterElephant on September 16, 2012 at 5:41 PM

Romney will win.

The polls are part of the Obama Super PAC MSM which has gone whole hog into re-elect mode. Obama is still trying to shore up his constituency through meetings with Pimp with a Limp on 9/11 for goodness sake! He went to Iowa City Iowa (liberal bastion college town) after the DNC. His internal polling must be awful… Pay attention to his actions, not the MSM/polling spin.

No matter what Romney does or does not do, the polls we see will not show a widening lead for Romney approaching election day.

They are trying to diminish our turnout.

Here’s a guarantee: It will get worse.

Stay frosty.

happytobehere on September 16, 2012 at 5:43 PM

Obama may sound like a loser and he may look like a loser, but don’t let that fool you … … … he really is a loser.

VorDaj on September 16, 2012 at 5:43 PM

If a GOP voter stays home because Mitt is the nominee then IMO they are no conservative

Under that strategy we’ve gone from Reagan to the Bushes to the McCains/Romneys.

Next stop will apparently be Hillary Clinton – because hey she’s more conservative then Obama.

18-1 on September 16, 2012 at 5:44 PM

Mathematically? Sure. There are more registered Democrats than Republicans…or at least there were. In theory. But for the sake of argument, let’s say there are. So yes, you can win.

If you lose Independents by the significant margins these polls are showing? Not a chance.

HitNRun on September 16, 2012 at 5:44 PM

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 5:38 PM

thanx. these other guys are letting the dems on Fox of all place convince them R is losing. he isn’t and he’s playing it smart.
rasmusuen even has R 2 points ahead of O in ohio as of sept 16th today sunday.

gracie on September 16, 2012 at 5:45 PM

Romney will win.

The polls are part of the Obama Super PAC MSM which has gone whole hog into re-elect mode. Obama is still trying to shore up his constituency through meetings with Pimp with a Limp on 9/11 for goodness sake! He went to Iowa City Iowa (liberal bastion college town) after the DNC. His internal polling must be awful… Pay attention to his actions, not the MSM/polling spin.

No matter what Romney does or does not do, the polls we see will not show a widening lead for Romney approaching election day.

They are trying to diminish our turnout.

Here’s a guarantee: It will get worse.

Stay frosty.

happytobehere on September 16, 2012 at 5:43 PM

And now barack is heading to Wisconsin. Wisconsin! A state he won by 13 points! What do his polls know that the rest of us don’t know? If he’s down 11, 12, 13 in Wisconsin, he is down everywhere.

Rational Thought on September 16, 2012 at 5:46 PM

18-1 on September 16, 2012 at 5:44 PM

Stay home then.

I didn’t vote for Mitt but at this point in time anyone would be better than Obama. Perhaps you don’t see him as the existential threat that I do. Maybe you need four more years of him.

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 5:46 PM

Next stop will apparently be Hillary Clinton – because hey she’s more conservative then Obama.

18-1 on September 16, 2012 at 5:44 PM

Maybe Bill Clinton could run for the GOP next time as the conservative alternative to Romney. /

sharrukin on September 16, 2012 at 5:46 PM

Just saw on Fox’s America’s News Headquarters show, that if the election was held today, 0bama would win by a pretty good margin.

Mirimichi on September 16, 2012 at 5:48 PM

gracie on September 16, 2012 at 5:45 PM

Best advice I can offer is to simply ignore the polls. I don’t trust the polling outfits any more than I do the MSM. In my opinion they are trying to drive an outcome rather than report on a trend.

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 5:50 PM

Can Obama get reelected losing the independent vote?

Yes. But he can’t lose too much of it.

Obviously, they’re looking at this election by focusing on the electoral vote. If it is a very close race, all they have to do is figure out is in which handful of key counties they have to engage in voter fraud. Suppressing the military vote seems to be a winner for them as well.

Also obvious is that he’s going to win the major urban areas. Actually, that just may be all it takes.

In short, it’s misleading for us to look at this democratically when we should be viewing the election electorally. The generalized polls mean little unless the spread is waaaay beyond the margin of error.

Dr. ZhivBlago on September 16, 2012 at 5:51 PM

And now barack is heading to Wisconsin. Wisconsin! A state he won by 13 points! What do his polls know that the rest of us don’t know? If he’s down 11, 12, 13 in Wisconsin, he is down everywhere.

Rational Thought on September 16, 2012 at 5:46 PM

Exactly. They show something truly awful for his chances. His only chance is to completely depress Republican turnout. That isn’t going to happen. (Despite the protestations of a very vocal yet extremely small minority on Hot Air)

happytobehere on September 16, 2012 at 5:52 PM

An adult cannot have his vote “depressed.” An adult puts his big boy pants on and goes and votes the way he wants to vote. An adult lives his life as a free person, taking both responsibility and accolades where they are earned. Lemme guess: You think a Youtube video “caused” the embassy attacks last week.

Rational Thought on September 16, 2012 at 5:38 PM

I am an adult. That is why I will vote exactly the way I want to vote. Not at all. My vote is I DO NOT CONSENT! I do live my life as a free person, taking the responsibility and accolades where they are earned. I also expect others to do the same, and as far as Romney is concerned, he has few things for me to grant him accolades over and many things he deserves significant criticism over.

But hey, because he won the primary election, you think all his past failures have to be covered over in order to allow the propaganda machine to collect as many unearned votes as possible with lies about who he is and what we can expect him to do, based on nothing more than paid for scripts. Talk about cognitive dissonance.

As for the embassy attacks. I think it is our responsibility to lay down the rules of conduct we expect on our land, which an embassy is, and to bring those who disrespect those rules their rightfully earned consequences, in spades. We have the responsibility to provide that level of certainty to ensure the safety of our people.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 5:52 PM

Mirimichi on September 16, 2012 at 5:48 PM

And do you believe that? Given the 2010 elections alone as evidence I don’t believe that for a minute. Has something changed that would cause the people who threw Pelosi and Co. from office because of Obamacare to now support the guy after whom that monstrosity is named?

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 5:52 PM

New question:

Can he get elected if he plans an October surprise, enacts martial law, and declares Christianity an existential threat?

StubbleSpark on September 16, 2012 at 5:55 PM

In the annals of US presidential leadership Obama is an utter windbag.

A cow pancake s/b able to beat him, in a sane world.

Schadenfreude on September 16, 2012 at 5:55 PM

I dont know how a conservative sits at home when Paul Ryan is on the ticket.
Plus, I trust Mitt will repeal Obamacare and replace it with a much more free market approach to reform.

Varchild on September 16, 2012 at 5:57 PM

The “attacks” have been coordinated all along to distract the American public from thinking about the economy. If they think about the economy Obama loses. If they think Obama has grown a set of testes, and done something about the “problems” he’s caused in the middle east by not doing anything except applaud the Arab Spring, and bow to his Muslim bosses, then he wins. This has all been in the works for quite some time. Barack is intending to reduce the US to a third world nation and has gone to great lengths to achieve this! It is and has been his intention for a very long time!

Vntnrse on September 16, 2012 at 5:57 PM

A cow pancake s/b able to beat him, in a sane world.

Schadenfreude on September 16, 2012 at 5:55 PM

The GOP is determined to find out if that’s true. /

sharrukin on September 16, 2012 at 5:58 PM

…with the gradual DUMBING of Americans over the years why are we even talking moderates, conservatives and independents?…then throw in illegal voting and you can wipe your azz with your polls!

KOOLAID2 on September 16, 2012 at 5:58 PM

Varchild on September 16, 2012 at 5:57 PM

I trust Mitt will sign whatever repeal bill a GOP Congress sends him.

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 5:58 PM

If a GOP voter stays home because Mitt is the nominee then IMO they are no conservative. Defeating Obama is the only conservative choice and that can’t be done by sitting home and pouting.

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 5:40 PM

So glad that the Romney, father of the health care Mandate, supporters are here to define what conservatism is.

Like that time he stood in front of a coal plant and decried! “that plant, that plant kills people!”
Then went on to create a cap and trade on carbon, a valueless gas, which by the way failed quickly and had to be replaced with a regional greenhouse gas initiative to restrict energy production in his region of the nation. Attack on coal, same as Obama!

But hey, you go right on ahead and keep telling me what conservative is, ok, bless your heart. You totally exude the air of an SEIU thug.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 5:59 PM

If people vote for Obama for the second time, we deserve the fate of Greece. Every people deserve their Government, at least in the countries where election is allowed.

We cannot blame Obama win if it happens on this add or that ad.

It should be obvious to any reasonable person, that Obama is the worst President we ever had. In fact, he is not President per say, he plays one on TV.

finallyhere on September 16, 2012 at 6:01 PM

Best advice I can offer is to simply ignore the polls. I don’t trust the polling outfits any more than I do the MSM. In my opinion they are trying to drive an outcome rather than report on a trend.

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 5:50 PM

Every time I hear/read “ignore the polls”, I remember times past with a Democrat inauguration followed such a statement.

Lord help us.

toliver on September 16, 2012 at 6:01 PM

I dont know how a conservative sits at home when Paul Ryan is on the ticket.
Plus, I trust Mitt will repeal Obamacare and replace it with a much more free market approach to reform.

Varchild on September 16, 2012 at 5:57 PM

You’re even serious with this? Paul Ryan?

No Child Left Behind, Medicare Part D, auto company bailouts? TARP yes vote? Ryan plan to push deficit spending out for 40 or more years in order to keep paying for the failing cradle to grave dependent creating socialist programs Ryan? that Paul Ryan is your conservative hero!?! You do seem serious.

You do not remember mitt saying he likes mandates, do you? or what he saw as the ideal solution in Massachusetts.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 6:03 PM

18-1 on September 16, 2012 at 5:38 PM

I think that you are seeing the “new Mitt”. He picked up a LOT from the 2010 elections. Gone are abortion, cap n’ trade…

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 5:52 PM

I find it amazing the lengths some people will travel to zap a candidate they do not like.

If I were a Dem, I might come here and cheer and bark like the pack and then try to leave a poison message. I’ll bet GOPers do it, too.

You see, the goal is to win elections.

IlikedAUH2O on September 16, 2012 at 6:03 PM

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 5:59 PM

You’re a f*ing idiot. There are exactly TWO choices on the ballot Nov 6th, Obama and Romney. You can cast a vote for Romney, cast a vote for Obama, or cast no vote at all which is the same as voting for Obama.

A conservative wouldn’t sit home and pout because his chosen candidate isn’t on the ballot out of some kind of protest. Jackass.

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 6:03 PM

You totally exude the air of an SEIU thug.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 5:59 PM

Sorry for exuding your air..

Electrongod on September 16, 2012 at 6:03 PM

You see, the goal is to win elections.

IlikedAUH2O on September 16, 2012 at 6:03 PM

Then why not become a Democrat and vote for Obama?

sharrukin on September 16, 2012 at 6:04 PM

Every time I hear/read “ignore the polls”, I remember times past with a Democrat inauguration followed such a statement.

Lord help us.

toliver on September 16, 2012 at 6:01 PM

http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/gallup_final_pre-election_poll_near-deadlock/

happytobehere on September 16, 2012 at 6:04 PM

Every time I hear/read “ignore the polls”, I remember times past with a Democrat inauguration followed such a statement.

Lord help us.

toliver on September 16, 2012 at 6:01 PM

Yeah that is understandable. I mean after that horribly crushing defeat that Scott Walker suffered which proved those tossup polls right./

Betenoire on September 16, 2012 at 6:05 PM

For all those saying no. Then why dont the polls reflect this?

Robb on September 16, 2012 at 6:06 PM

The Democrat media polls have been finding extra Democrats and missing massive numbers of Republlicans and Indis all year long. Every single poll this week of alleged likely voters (apart from Rasmussen) has had between a D+5 and a D+11 bias. If you apply the 2004 or 2010 partisan participation rates from the Edison exit polls to this week’s polls, Romney is leading every one outside their ranges of error.

http://thecitizenpamphleteer.wordpress.com/2012/09/15/a-corrected-presidential-polling-average/

The last time a Republican led Independents like this was Reagan 84.

This election is only close when you game the polls to favor Obama.

Bart DePalma on September 16, 2012 at 6:06 PM

As for the embassy attacks. I think it is our responsibility to lay down the rules of conduct we expect on our land, which an embassy is, and to bring those who disrespect those rules their rightfully earned consequences, in spades. We have the responsibility to provide that level of certainty to ensure the safety of our people.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 5:52 PM

Then you will be voting Anti-Obama…

Electrongod on September 16, 2012 at 6:06 PM

You’re a f*ing idiot. There are exactly TWO choices on the ballot Nov 6th, Obama and Romney. You can cast a vote for Romney, cast a vote for Obama, or cast no vote at all which is the same as voting for Obama.

A conservative wouldn’t sit home and pout because his chosen candidate isn’t on the ballot out of some kind of protest. Jackass.

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 6:03 PM

I am trying to figure out where in the constitution I am required to vote on a ballot. Not finding it. Maybe you can point me to the penumbra from which it rests, progressives are good at finding those hidden passages.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 6:06 PM

toliver on September 16, 2012 at 6:01 PM

In case you missed it up thread. From the American Spectator.

Do not let these polls fool you. In 1980 similar polls showed Jimmy Carter leading the Old Cowboy almost to the very end. Carter was ahead of Governor Ronald Reagan by 4 points in late September, by 8 points in October, and the Gallup polls had him ahead of Reagan by 6 points in last days of the election. Reagan won by 9 points, sweeping 44 states. In 1988 Governor Dukakis at one point led Vice President George H. W. Bush by 17 points. He lost by almost 8 points.

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 6:06 PM

Every time I hear/read “ignore the polls”, I remember times past with a Democrat inauguration followed such a statement.

Lord help us.

toliver on September 16, 2012 at 6:01 PM

http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/gallup_final_pre-election_poll_near-deadlock/

happytobehere on September 16, 2012 at 6:04 PM

Remember how Kerry won Ohio and Florida as predicted in the polling?

happytobehere on September 16, 2012 at 6:07 PM

Everything I needed to know about polling I learned in the 2004 Bush/Kerry race.

Kerry had double digit leads all the way till election results were announced. Exit polling had Kerry up by a alot.

tom daschle concerned on September 16, 2012 at 6:07 PM

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 6:06 PM

WTH are you babbling about? Vote, don’t vote, I don’t care. Just stop complaining.

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 6:07 PM

Here is what I posted at Ace.

—-

I decided to take a quick look at the polls in Ohio just to see what’s really going on. Now, the NBC poll didn’t have the crosstabs for how many Indepedents voted for each candidate, so I just assumed Dems and Republicans vote for their own party at 95%. Other numbers don’t change it much.
NBC is most recent.

Current (NBC, PPP, Gravis):
Obama: 50%, 50%, 47%
Romney: 43%, 45%, 43%
I-diff: +6R, +2R, +17R
D-R diff: +10D, +4D, +10D

Those are some big skews for DRI splits. But in 2008, it was +8Dems. So lets look at the same poll, but using the 2008 DRI split of 39/31/30.

Obama: 50%, 51%, 44%
Romney: 45%, 44%, 45%

That’s a big shift for the Gravis poll. The other two stayed roughly the same where Romney gained 2 point in NBC (and lost 2 in PPP).

If we take the 2010 exit poll in party affiliation of 36/37/28, we get this:

Obama: 47%, 48%, 41%
Romney: 50%, 48%, 49%

If you’ll note, Romney’s numbers are fairly identical trendwise in all three polls regardless of which DRI you pick. The narrative that Romney is falling off is untrue. This means that something is going on with Obama’s numbers. But they’re not going up either. It’s the DRI skew that’s being manipulated as seen above. The Gravis poll is what makes it look like a trend. But their skew and Indies is completely out of whack.

The reality is that nothing has changed in Ohio and is very close with Romney being very near or above 50%. This is why the Dems in the media are in full panic mode and attacking Romney.

I may do more in VA, WI, FL and MI. But I think they all show the same thing. A close race where Romney is winning the indies. And pollsters trying to redefine the race.

MrX on September 16, 2012 at 6:08 PM

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 6:03 PM

asssteronii is the only true conservative alive, judge and jury concerning all things conservative, and all of the rest of us are mere shlubs that cannot see his awesome truths.

pambi on September 16, 2012 at 6:09 PM

Jackass.

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 6:03 PM

…and he’ll pleasure us daily with the SOS for another 60 some days!

KOOLAID2 on September 16, 2012 at 6:09 PM

A small scenario, involving me and a lady that some would look at and consider a low-info voter:

I filled up my gas tank on Friday (which was a mistake, waiting so late in the week). Gas was $3.91/gal. The lady parked at the pump behind me said, “These gas prices are ridiculous, aren’t they?”

I agreed and said, “They’re going to be worse next week, because of that mess in the Middle East. Thanks to Obama.”

Her lips got thin, and she nodded knowingly.

I don’t think the bitter clingers in flyover country are as uninformed at the Coastal Elites would like to think.

RebeccaH on September 16, 2012 at 6:09 PM

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 6:06 PM

Hey! Someone who took our beloved POTUS CON LAW course!

Yippiee!

IlikedAUH2O on September 16, 2012 at 6:09 PM

Historically, a candidate cannot win the presidency while losing independent votes. However, it has happened thrice in my lifetime: 1976, 2000 and 2004. These exceptions are instructive.

Three words for you: NO MORE LANDLINES! Polling is super inaccurate anymore because so many people have given up their home phones. The peace and serenity of not getting those robo calls and polls! (Oh shoot, well, I did lie like crazy to them, just to mess with their heads, and enjoyed playing the foaming at the mouth liberal, but I had my fingers x’ed and said prayers of forgiveness.) Who the heck are they talking to?

Chewy the Lab on September 16, 2012 at 6:10 PM

The worse President in the history of the US….

albill on September 16, 2012 at 6:11 PM

This is a really good article on polls from the American Spectator.

The Problem with Obama’s Polls

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 6:11 PM

For all those saying no. Then why dont the polls reflect this?

Robb on September 16, 2012 at 6:06 PM

For the same reason that the Middle East is burning because of a movie no one has ever seen and not because of 9/11 and a carefully planned attack with RPGs. For the same reason that our Embassy being attacked and our Ambassador killed is a reflection on “Romney is Unfit to Be President!!!!”

The “polls” reflect this because Obama’s Super PAC the MSM says so.

Now, Citizen, shut up and don’t vote for Romney because it’s hopeless!

happytobehere on September 16, 2012 at 6:11 PM

How many blacks will not vote due to his gay marriage stance?. Will Jewish voters finally see the forest through the trees?
How many evangelicals will stay home because Mitt is a Mormon?

crosshugger on September 16, 2012 at 6:11 PM

Then you will be voting Anti-Obama…

Electrongod on September 16, 2012 at 6:06 PM

I think Americans deserve Obama at the moment. I think they deserve the economic downturn. I think they should be suffering significantly more than they currently are, or are likely to even under another 4 years of Obama. I think their selfishness over the last 12 years deserves it. So far they have picked two of the worse possible candidates for the republican party in my memory, and quite frankly, Bob Dole, who I did vote for was a horrible pick, but reasonable only because it did not matter who we picked, Clinton was going win in the minds of Republicans, so no one descent ran in the primary.

This time around, we had newt Gingrich, remember him? He is the most responsible person for the welfare reform of the 1990′s, and he was panned!

Well, obviously Americans do not want conservative solutions. Let them enjoy the Obama versions of the socialist solutions. I do not want to see their reaction to severely conservative Romney’s socialist solutions.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 6:12 PM

I should add one thing. I found a correlation between the D-R difference in the party affiliation and the number of Indies that Romney is getting vs. Obama. If Romney is leading indies by 5, then the DRI skew toward Dems will be about +10D to offset this Romney advantage. They don’t tend to go over +10D too often, but it does happen and +10 Dems is found in a LOT of polls.

So I believe the polls, not the DRI split that has to be chosen by the polling firm.

MrX on September 16, 2012 at 6:13 PM

But if we have two liberals running against each other – an extremist vs a technocrat then the election is merely going to be a question of how well the State Media can paper over the economy.

18-1 on September 16, 2012 at 5:38 PM

Aw, thanks for your “concern” but only the progs & Paulinas believe that line of bull that Romney and Obama are exactly the same. Only one of those men last Tuesday said:

America will not tolerate attacks against our citizens and against our embassies. We’ll defend also our constitutional rights of speech, and assembly, and religion. We have confidence in our cause in America. We respect our Constitution. We stand for the principles our constitution protects. We encourage other nations to understand and respect the principles of our constitution, because we recognize that these principles are the ultimate source of freedom for individuals around the world.

Hint: it wasn’t the one who is actually sworn to uphold & defend the Constitution. That guy thinks it’s his job “to fight against negative stereotypes of Islam wherever they appear” in between campaign events in Vegas.

The kind of stupid it takes to not be able to tell the difference between the two really should hurt.

Dark Star on September 16, 2012 at 6:13 PM

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 6:07 PM

The object is to play and keep conservatives from voting.

Like attacking Paul Ryan with the spending laundry list.

Apparently our genius never checked out how most congressmen had to swing to stay in office. Look how many voted against the stimulus bill then accepted the funds.

IlikedAUH2O on September 16, 2012 at 6:13 PM

How many evangelicals will stay home because Mitt is a Mormon?

I hope not many are that stupid.

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 6:14 PM

WTH are you babbling about? Vote, don’t vote, I don’t care. Just stop complaining.

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 6:07 PM

NO

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 6:14 PM

Perk up, buttercups.

Romney Ground Game to Keep Pennsylvania in Play?

The ad dollars don’t lie and for now Team Romney is not aggressively playing for Pennsylvania in the all important TV ad game. But the Super Saturdays continue apace and the numbers are staggering in their out-performance of McCain 2008. The one state that risks getting out of hand among Battlegrounds is Pennsylvania but the ground work tells a very different story:

Republican Mitt Romney and allied organizations are off the airwaves in Pennsylvania’s television markets for now, raising questions about how much the challenger is willing to contend for its 20 electoral votes. And yet Romney and his allies with the Republican National Committee are reaching out to voters in Pennsylvania (and other swing states) with a ground game that is far more intensive than the party was able to muster in support of John McCain four years ago.

So far, Romney volunteers have made nearly two million voter contacts by phone call and door-to-door canvassing, said Kate Meriwether, state spokeswoman for the Romney campaign. She said that 250,000 of those contacts had been door knocks. That was nine times more phone calls and 64 times more door visits than the John McCain campaign had managed in Pennsylvania within two weeks of election day 2008, Meriwether said. Last Saturday, which was the monthly “Super Saturday” for the Romney GOTV effort, volunteers knocked on about 50,000 doors and made more than 130,000 phone calls.

On Wednesday, the state’s top Republicans, Gov. Corbett and Sen. Pat Toomey, said that they believe Pennsylvania is competitive despite what the polls have said. “My sense is that the polls reported on in the press diverged completely from the polls I had internally,” Toomey said in a conference call with reporters. “I am just skeptical of the polling data I have seen.” Corbett said that private GOP polls, which he did not detail, “ lead me to believe that this race is much closer” than the 7.7 percentage point advantage Obama enjoyed in the average of all public Pennsylvania polls compiled by the Real Clear Politics website.

The governor also suggested that voters are inured to 30-second spots. “Television ads have been on in this race for over a year now – a lot of people see (an) ad and turn it right off,” Corbett said. “If we keep our head down and keep hitting these numbers, it’s going to be a real shock to Team Obama in late October,” Meriwether said.

SouthernGent on September 16, 2012 at 6:14 PM

Just saw on Fox’s America’s News Headquarters show, that if the election was held today, 0bama would win by a pretty good margin.

Mirimichi on September 16, 2012 at 5:48 PM

I got rid of cable. My life is so much better without FOX. Just turn it off. I promise you won’t miss it.

parteagirl on September 16, 2012 at 6:16 PM

And do you believe that? Given the 2010 elections alone as evidence I don’t believe that for a minute. Has something changed that would cause the people who threw Pelosi and Co. from office because of Obamacare to now support the guy after whom that monstrosity is named?

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 5:52 PM

No, I don’t. But, it is pretty depressing to see this stuff all the time though.

Mirimichi on September 16, 2012 at 6:16 PM

I think Americans deserve Obama at the moment. I think they deserve the economic downturn. I think they should be suffering significantly more than they currently are, or are likely to even under another 4 years of Obama.
astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 6:12 PM

Sorry..I don’t share your future..

I have a daughter in College and soon will graduate…
It is my responsibility to help fix this than to let it be flushed down the toilet…

Electrongod on September 16, 2012 at 6:17 PM

Another thing to throw into the mix are Democrats voting for Romney, which looks pretty good. I doubt many Republicans will vote for Obama.

Paddington on September 16, 2012 at 6:17 PM

I got rid of cable. My life is so much better without FOX. Just turn it off. I promise you won’t miss it.

parteagirl on September 16, 2012 at 6:16 PM

I miss Sean Hannity a little bit… But I do not miss Fox at all.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 6:18 PM

RebeccaH on September 16, 2012 at 6:09 PM

And while she may not bother to vote for Romney, it is likely she may not bother to vote at all.

davidk on September 16, 2012 at 6:18 PM

IlikedAUH2O on September 16, 2012 at 6:13 PM

I agree. To me this election is easy.

It’s a choice between a man who is willfully trying to diminish the US politically, economically, and militarily vs. someone who would never do such a thing. Obama hates this country, whites, Western culture, and possibly even Christianity and will do whatever is necessary to harm all four. Even if Mitt turns out to be as bad as the Bushes that’s still exponentially better than Obama and his gang of socialists.

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 6:19 PM

You’re a f*ing idiot. There are exactly TWO choices on the ballot Nov 6th, Obama and Romney. You can cast a vote for Romney, cast a vote for Obama, or cast no vote at all which is the same as voting for Obama.

A conservative wouldn’t sit home and pout because his chosen candidate isn’t on the ballot out of some kind of protest. Jackass.

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 6:03 PM

Save your breath, that one is an Obot pretending to be a conservative.

I am tired of sitting home. I will actively vote Obama and get my family to join me if the nominee is Romney. While it would be nice to get a better job between 2013 and 2017, I am willing to wait.

astonerii on January 30, 2012 at 2:52 PM

;)

JPeterman on September 16, 2012 at 6:19 PM

Just saw on Fox’s America’s News Headquarters show, that if the election was held today, 0bama would win by a pretty good margin.

Mirimichi on September 16, 2012 at 5:48 PM

Well golly gee! Let’s not even have the election then.

I don’t understand how people who can’t grasp simple concepts like dates, as in September 16th isn’t the same actual day as November 6th, can perform such complicated tasks as getting on the internet or putting on their pants all by themselves.

Dark Star on September 16, 2012 at 6:20 PM

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 6:03 PM

Don’t engage the troll. He’s stated that he wants Obama to win because somehow out of the rubble will come a pure conservatism. He would rather do it from being a 20 ft hole than at the status quo we have now.

He refuses to see that we are turning the tide and need time. He’d rather see it all go to heck and start from a worse position.

IOW, he’s not too bright and doesn’t care that a LOT of people will suffer needlessly.

kim roy on September 16, 2012 at 6:21 PM

If a GOP voter stays home because Mitt is the nominee then IMO they are no conservative. Defeating Obama is the only conservative choice and that can’t be done by sitting home and pouting.

Charlemagne

Don’t worry, asseroni won’t be sitting home. He’s already admitted he’s voting for Obama….you know, because that’s what conservatives do, lol.

xblade on September 16, 2012 at 6:21 PM

I think Americans deserve Obama at the moment. I think they deserve the economic downturn. I think they should be suffering significantly more than they currently are, or are likely to even under another 4 years of Obama.
astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 6:12 PM

Sorry..I don’t share your future..

I have a daughter in College and soon will graduate…
It is my responsibility to help fix this than to let it be flushed down the toilet…

Electrongod on September 16, 2012 at 6:17 PM

Good responce, E. The devastating effects of four more of the Marxist in rhw Whitehouse will take decades to undo.

I will not live to see it. The country I grew up in will be over for me.

davidk on September 16, 2012 at 6:22 PM

Electrongod on September 16, 2012 at 6:17 PM

I agree 100%. I have four kids, none of whom have been old enough to vote. They don’t “deserve” this. And neither frankly do I. I’ve never in my life voted for a Democrat/socialist.

It would be nice if there was a way to bring pain only to those that vote for Obama and not all of us.

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 6:22 PM

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 5:33 PM
astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 6:18 PM
astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 6:14 PM
astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 6:06 PM
astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 6:03 PM
astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 5:59 PM

Another thread hogged by this loser.

Asstonerii do you have a life or an original thought?

Diwmit.

CW on September 16, 2012 at 6:23 PM

i hope not

gerrym51 on September 16, 2012 at 6:23 PM

Sorry..I don’t share your future..

I have a daughter in College and soon will graduate…
It is my responsibility to help fix this than to let it be flushed down the toilet…

Electrongod on September 16, 2012 at 6:17 PM

Great, I have one that is 15 months and 1 week old today. It is my responsibility to hand to her a Nation that is better off than it was 25 years ago when I inherited it.

So lets see. Should I allow Obama to fail with his socialism and have America wake up sooner rather than later and be forced to get their fiscal house in order and get rid of cradle to grave socialism? Or should I allow Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan to tinker around the edges, make promises they cannot keep, and put her trillions more in debt than Obama could ever dream of doing?

You see, Romney will be able to change the economy. I think he will be able to convince Americans that they can keep going into debt and put off the hard choices for a long time to come. He will sign legislation that leaves debts for as far as he is in office, and say we are on a path to balance. No one has to suffer for their bad choices, much like Bush did in 2008.

I dunno, I want the battle today, not 12 years from now. I’ll be older and physically weaker then. Eyesight might also not be so awesome.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 6:24 PM

Another thread hogged by this loser.

Asstonerii do you have a life or an original thought?

Diwmit.

CW on September 16, 2012 at 6:23 PM

SEIU Thug.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 6:25 PM

Under that strategy we’ve gone from Reagan to the Bushes to the McCains/Romneys.

Next stop will apparently be Hillary Clinton – because hey she’s more conservative then Obama.

18-1 on September 16, 2012 at 5:44 PM

So Rommey has nothing to offer? You’d prefer 4 more yeards of crying and fantasizing and making damns sure that the “reforms” of an unfettered Obama are rock solid, that our military is tattered, and that the President can rule by fiat.

That is just brilliant. I applaud your logic and your dedication to Obama/Biden. Yes, Einstein, let him give away more tax dollars, let him annex Mexico’s poor, let him trample freedom of speech to death and then whine that the next guy is not conservative enough to make your vote worthwhile!

I am sick of you whiney stay at home infants. When he gets re-elected I’m sure you’ll come here to boast about how you made it happen to “punish” the rest of us.

clnurnberg on September 16, 2012 at 6:27 PM

It would be nice if there was a way to bring pain only to those that vote for Obama and not all of us.

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 6:22 PM

The dream of tyrants. Its called a non private voting booth. You acquiesce to the government. Have not educated your fellow voters. Vote party line and do not make any demands for your vote. What do you expect?

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 6:27 PM

Anyone interested in starting a Red State only TEA Party type organization with the goal of electing strong, 10th Amendment conservatives to statewide offices so we can use our states to fight Obama and the “state”?

A secondary goal would be to implement state policies that Libs would hate to keep them out of our states. Look what they did to NC.

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 6:27 PM

I am trying to figure out where in the constitution I am required to vote on a ballot. Not finding it. Maybe you can point me to the penumbra from which it rests, progressives are good at finding those hidden passages.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 6:06 PM

Will the Preamble do?

We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.

davidk on September 16, 2012 at 6:27 PM

I’m having a hard time seeing how Obama wins with a 35%–or even a 25%–drop in the Jewish vote in FL or OH. Gore lost to Bush by 500 votes with Lieberman on the ticket. A 25% drop of the Jewish vote in FL would be a loss of @ 19,000 votes or more. Same with OH–and even PA where the Jewish vote is so heavily concentrated in the swing suburbs outside Philly.

writeblock on September 16, 2012 at 6:27 PM

astonerii on

January

30, 2012 at 2:52 PM

Been a while Jpeterman. I changed my mind. But feel free to keep bringing it up. Gotta love internet stalking.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 6:29 PM

I got rid of cable. My life is so much better without FOX. Just turn it off. I promise you won’t miss it.

parteagirl on September 16, 2012 at 6:16 PM

I miss Sean Hannity a little bit… But I do not miss Fox at all.

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 6:18 PM

I also got rid of cable, but I got a Roku so we could have Netflix. There is a Fox News channel that has highlights from most of the shows, Hannity, Special Report, Gretta, etc. By the time I’m ready to go to bed they are usually updated for that day. Not bad for $7.99 a month.

Night Owl on September 16, 2012 at 6:29 PM

OT: Ambassador Stevens video from the attack.

wargamer6 on September 16, 2012 at 6:30 PM

astonerii on September 16, 2012 at 5:52 PM

Down boy!

Now, you are welcome to sit it out, since you view both candidates to be equally bad for our country. In fact, since nobody ought to make you vote against your will, well — good on it!

But, buried in that diatribe is a bit of Ron Paul enthusiast, the kind of guy who’s going to take his marbles home because he lost that big shooter? The guy who deserves what Barack Obama will certainly be dishing for the next four years… Russia and all.

Oh, you think that, four years from now, everyone will be ready for Ron? Dream on….

And I’m sorry, I can’t do that to myself either.

unclesmrgol on September 16, 2012 at 6:30 PM

Historically, a candidate cannot win the presidency while losing independent votes. However, it has happened thrice in my lifetime: 1976, 2000 and 2004. These exceptions are instructive.

In 1976, Carter won 50/48, while losing indies 48/52. However, the D/R/I breakdown that year was 37/22/41. The remarkably high number of indies and remarkably low number for Republicans suggests that post-Watergate, a lot of those indies were closet Republicans. In 2000, Dubya won indies 48/46, while narrowly losing the popular vote in a 39/35/26 D/R/I breakdown. In 2004, Dubya won 51/48, but lost indies 48/50 in a 37/37/26 D/R/I breakdown.

Allahpundit, since this is your job and only a hobby with us, could you return the favor and advise what sampling model Rasmussen uses in his national 3 day average. Someone here yesterday claimed it was R+4.

Basilsbest on September 16, 2012 at 6:30 PM

As I am given to understand, many pollsters right now are using 2008 models for turnout, assuming such things as 13 percent African-American turnout, and higher-than-usual 18-25 turnout. Both of which are highly unlikely this year.

Sekhmet on September 16, 2012 at 6:30 PM

writeblock on September 16, 2012 at 6:27 PM

I hate to quote myself but…

No. IMO Obama can’t win because he won’t be able to repeat several critical factors that led him to victory in 2008.

1. The black and Hispanic votes were at a historic high. They won’t be this time.
2. The college vote won’t be as high.
3. Independents who were willing to give him a chance won’t this time. Not in numbers he needs.
4. The GOP/TEA Party base is chomping at the bit to get rid of him. Some people act as if 2010 didn’t happen or that the zeal has dissipated.
5. Obama now has a record and it’s abysmal.
6. Gas prices are 100% higher than when he took office.

Charlemagne on September 16, 2012 at 6:31 PM

Gallup’s seven day tracking is already showing Obama fading from his bounce. He is +3 in that poll and still includes the period when Rasmussen had Obama +5. Obama has rapidly faded in Rasmussen, though, and even today when Obama usually sees a weekend bounce, is still behind Romney.

I am expecting to see Obama fall below Romney next week in the Gallup tracking provided no significant new event comes along.

The way I see the math working out, I really don’t see any chance of Obama winning in November and I am calling it right now Romney +5 but that can changes between now and then.

crosspatch on September 16, 2012 at 6:32 PM

Every time I hear/read “ignore the polls”, I remember times past with a Democrat inauguration followed such a statement.

Lord help us.

toliver on September 16, 2012 at 6:01 PM

Like the Scott Walker recall election in WI?

Or maybe you’re thinking of the 2010 mid-terms.

Dark Star on September 16, 2012 at 6:32 PM

Comment pages: 1 2 3 4