WSJ/NBC poll: Obama now leads by five in Virginia and Florida, by seven in Ohio

posted at 8:03 pm on September 13, 2012 by Allahpundit

I know your first thought is always of the samples, so here you go: I’m listing the WSJ/NBC poll partisan split first and then the 2008 exit poll split for each state for comparison. And yes, this is likely voters:

Virginia: 31D/26R/43I (39/33/27)

Ohio: 38D/28R/32I (39/31/30)

Florida: 35D/33R/30I (37/34/29)

The Democratic turnout advantage in this model would be only a point less in Virginia and Florida than it was at the apex of Hopenchange in 2008, and in Ohio it would actually be two points greater. That’s not happening in November, but O’s lead in each state is wide enough here that I think he probably is ahead — narrowly. According to RCP’s averages, in fact, he’s up by just 1.3 points in Florida and 0.4 points in Virginia, and those numbers incorporate his gaudy leads in this WSJ/NBC poll. Even more reason not to panic: This poll was conducted from Sept. 9-11, when Obama still had a bit of a convention bounce. That bounce now appears to be gone; Ramussen’s daily tracker actually has Romney back in the lead today nationally.

The real worry for Romney is Ohio, where he’s now down 4.2 points in the RCP average and which is virtually must-win. Unemployment’s down to 7.2 percent there and the auto bailout is popular; Ohio’s also a sharp contrast with Wisconsin insofar as Kasich’s proposed collective-bargaining reforms for public-employee unions went down in flames at the polls. Not going to be easy for Romney. And per WSJ/NBC, there aren’t many undecideds left in swing states:

What’s particularly striking about these polls, Miringoff observes, is how most voters in these battleground states have already made up their minds, with just 5 to 6 percent saying they’re undecided, and with more than 80 percent signaling that they strongly support their candidate.

“Those who are thinking of voting have pretty much picked sides,” he says.

In Florida and Virginia, Obama and Romney are essentially tied among likely voters on the question of which candidate would do a better job handling the economy, although Obama has a four-point advantage on this question in Ohio.

But when it comes to handling foreign policy, the incumbent Democratic president enjoys a double-digit lead over his Republican challenger.

Again, this poll was conducted from Sunday through Tuesday, the day of the embassy attacks in Cairo and Benghazi. Let’s see how that foreign-policy question looks next week. On the other hand, because eeyore’s gotta be eeyore, note that Fox News’s national poll released last night is also showing a national lead for Obama of five points, 48/43. That poll was conducted over the same period as WSJ/NBC’s, so there’s bounciness built in there too, and the partisan split — 42D vs. 36R — strikes me as a bit more Democratic than we’ll see on election day. But again, the takeaway here is that O probably is ahead by a point or two. Nothing fatal. But Mitt needs a little momentum.

Click the image below for Pat Caddell’s thoughts on the worst campaign evah. Exit question: Team Romney’s now counting on the debates to be their launching pad, but, er, have the debates ever actually decided an election? Says John Sides, “Indeed, scholars who have looked most carefully at the data have found that, when it comes to shifting enough votes to decide the outcome of the election, presidential debates have rarely, if ever, mattered.”


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Holy crap, look at the brak outs and the sampling, of course they don’t tell you where they sampled either, but hey, the media isn’t in the tankl for the won, they are as fair and balanced as foxnews… right, right??? do a little more research, then we can talk.

uncommon sense on September 13, 2012 at 9:40 PM

So you just, I dunno, feel that Romney’s really ahead nationally by 10 points or something, right?

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:42 PM

Dunno. I couldn’t force anyone to get into the race, or stay out for that matter.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:40 PM

No, but you could stop being a judgmental little turd about it.

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:42 PM

Really? All I see is a bunch of ‘bots going on like chimps at feeding time in the zoo over a bad poll for Mitt.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:34 PM

Oh, so the Paulbots and Palinistas are here? Oh wait, that’s right neither of them is a candidate. One because he couldn’t get enough support. The other because she didn’t want to run.

Deanna on September 13, 2012 at 9:42 PM

Team Romney’s now counting on the debates to be their launching pad, but, er, have the debates ever actually decided an election?

They did for Reagan.

ccrosby on September 13, 2012 at 9:44 PM

You see, I don’t have much of a life. Sure I’ve got every Palin speech on TiVo and have 50 love dolls on standby, but I’d rather post on here 24/7. You see, my life revolves around Cuda! If she ever ran as a Democrat, I’d follow her in a heartbeat!

Now, if you’ll excuse me, I have to visit one of my love dolls. Maybe it’ll let me be than man tonight! I can only hope! Bye!

wargamer6 on September 13, 2012 at 9:42 PM

Not really. See, I never so much as actually bought her books. One was given to me by a friend. Never have registered at C4P, only occasionally glance at it. Like a typical liberal, you like building up a steretypical straw man and tearing it down.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:44 PM

I have a poll for you all. Regarding Dick Morris. This guy has worked on elections and was Clinton’s advisor once. Do you all feel his confidence in a Romney win is based on actual data or his plan to motivate us. I think he is just trying to keep us in the game. I think a lot of what he says is anecdotal and his way to play with our minds. What does he have to lose anyway.

Robb on September 13, 2012 at 9:44 PM

Hi. My name is ddrintin. I’m a mealy mouthed loser who’s hero chose not to run in 2012, so I’ve decided to make everyone’s life on HotAir miserable. I really hate Romney, but even if he wasn’t the nominee, I’d still attack whoever it was.

You see, I don’t have much of a life. Sure I’ve got every Palin speech on TiVo and have 50 love dolls on standby, but I’d rather post on here 24/7. You see, my life revolves around Cuda! If she ever ran as a Democrat, I’d follow her in a heartbeat!

Now, if you’ll excuse me, I have to visit one of my love dolls. Maybe it’ll let me be than man tonight! I can only hope! Bye!

wargamer6 on September 13, 2012 at 9:42 PM

He probably does not even realize that he is not doing Sarah Palin any favors with this kind of nonsense. Too far gone I think.

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:45 PM

Oh, so the Paulbots and Palinistas are here? Oh wait, that’s right neither of them is a candidate. One because he couldn’t get enough support. The other because she didn’t want to run.

Deanna on September 13, 2012 at 9:42 PM

Hmmm…you should really be worrying more about the support Romney doesn’t seem to have.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:45 PM

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:44 PM

Typical. He calls everyone a liberal.

wargamer6 on September 13, 2012 at 9:46 PM

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:44 PM

So you’re saying you do have the love dolls?

wargamer6 on September 13, 2012 at 9:46 PM

Oh FFS, another thread that has nothing to do with SP turned into mud slinging match about SP.

I’m shocked! Shocked, I tells ya!

Flora Duh on September 13, 2012 at 9:46 PM

He probably does not even realize that he is not doing Sarah Palin any favors with this kind of nonsense. Too far gone I think.

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:45 PM

I never even mentioned Sarah Palin. It’s the ‘bots who for some reason are always doing that. It’s creepy.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:46 PM

Hmmm…you should really be worrying more about the support Romney doesn’t seem to have.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:45 PM

Fine. I am done with you. If you want to spend election day sitting home with your thumb your ass it is fine with me.

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:47 PM

Nobody’s fault but the Republicans. Mitt could never even articulate in the primaries to more than about 40% of voters why they should vote for him. He does even more poorly with the non-Republicans he would need to win now.

Daikokuco on September 13, 2012 at 9:47 PM

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:44 PM

So you’re saying you do have the love dolls?

wargamer6 on September 13, 2012 at 9:46 PM

No, quite the opposite. Again, like a lib, you can’t f*cking think.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:48 PM

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:41 PM

Do you think Romney is on a winning course, that no alterations are required, that’s he’s doing everything and exactly what he needs to do to win?

rrpjr on September 13, 2012 at 9:48 PM

So you just, I dunno, feel that Romney’s really ahead nationally by 10 points or something, right?

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:42 PM

Go and look at the polls, some over sample the 18-39 year old vote by double, under sample the elderly, don’t use likely voters, etc… I’m just saying take it with a grain of salt, the deck is stacked for a reason, and it is to keep peole like you from voting the one out of office, cause I think you want 4 more years of this sh@t sandwich, hey at least with Rmoney, we can try different sh@t.

uncommon sense on September 13, 2012 at 9:48 PM

Daikokuco on September 13, 2012 at 9:47 PM

Ron Paul got what? 10%?

wargamer6 on September 13, 2012 at 9:48 PM


So you just, I dunno, feel that Romney’s really ahead nationally by 10 points or something, right?

He saved the Olympics or something. Did you know that? Well, did you!?

casuist on September 13, 2012 at 9:49 PM

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:48 PM

Haha I can’t think? You’re so blind in your hate for Romney.

wargamer6 on September 13, 2012 at 9:49 PM

Oh FFS, another thread that has nothing to do with SP turned into mud slinging match about SP.

I’m shocked! Shocked, I tells ya!

Flora Duh on September 13, 2012 at 9:46 PM

I know..I am officially done with all that. It is too tiring and too time consuming. A waste.

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:49 PM

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:41 PM

Do you think Romney is on a winning course, that no alterations are required, that’s he’s doing everything and exactly what he needs to do to win?

rrpjr on September 13, 2012 at 9:48 PM

Romney is right on course! He’s really ahead by at least 7 points in Ohio and Florida!!!!! Don’t believe the polls!!!!!!!

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:50 PM

He saved the Olympics or something. Did you know that? Well, did you!?

casuist on September 13, 2012 at 9:49 PM

And the gang is all here…yet another fake conservative trolling the poll thread..amazing.

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:50 PM

Romney isn’t going to win, period. I really wish there was something else in the news to talk about.

andy85719 on September 13, 2012 at 9:02 PM

Awww, it’s little Andy the O-bot concern troll, coming in to troll…his concern…for barack. Such a good boy.

Rational Thought on September 13, 2012 at 9:50 PM

Oh FFS, another thread that has nothing to do with SP turned into mud slinging match about SP.

I’m shocked! Shocked, I tells ya!

Flora Duh on September 13, 2012 at 9:46 PM

I know..I am officially done with all that. It is too tiring and too time consuming. A waste.

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:49 PM

Who are the ones who are always, and I mean ALWAYS, bringing up Sarah Palin? I swear, the ‘bots must hate the woman as much as the average Kos Kiddie.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:52 PM

ddrintn

Just curious, but how are you going to feel if he wins?

And don’t give me a “he won’t” answer.

ccrosby on September 13, 2012 at 9:52 PM

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:50 PM

Sounds like you from 2008.

wargamer6 on September 13, 2012 at 9:52 PM

Hmmm…you should really be worrying more about the support Romney doesn’t seem to have.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:45 PM

I’m not worried. Does that bother you? Actually I’m pretty confident. I’ve worked on campaigns since Goldwater and I know someone who’s upset because their idol didn’t run and broke their heart when I see one. But that’s okay. We don’t mind that you have this need to ego stroke to make up for your loss. It’s kind of comical actually.

Deanna on September 13, 2012 at 9:52 PM

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:41 PM

Do you think Romney is on a winning course, that no alterations are required, that’s he’s doing everything and exactly what he needs to do to win?

rrpjr on September 13, 2012 at 9:48 PM

I think Romney is making alterations right now..I think the remarks about the embassy memo was meant to do just what it did..and I am sure they do their own internal polling and make changes about where and how to use their resources.

Romney had a huge rally today. The crowds are very enthusiastic.

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:54 PM

I have an adjustable rate mortgage from way back when. I am paying nothing to live in my home. If O wins, he’ll keep sitting on those rates and I win as my Apple stock continues to soar while I receive food stamps.

Romney would be better for the country. Obama would be better for me.

Who should I vote for….?

rickyricardo on September 13, 2012 at 9:54 PM

We’ve gotten a lot poorer.

Self-preservation instinct?

Lanceman on September 13, 2012 at 8:25 PM

But those 50%-ers got more free stuff. Free loaders have even more reasons to vote than we do.

riddick on September 13, 2012 at 9:55 PM

Romney is right on course! He’s really ahead by at least 7 points in Ohio and Florida!!!!! Don’t believe the polls!!!!!!!

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:50 PM

You know, if you can’t stand Rmoney, go vote for Gary, but know you are the reason the country failed! You might not like Rmoney, but do you really want 4 more years of the one? Do you think that we will actually have a republic left?We gotta start somewhere, and that is getting the one out of office… but like I stated earlier, you like this sh@t sandwhich, so enjoy, I’m willing for my country, to try someone else’s sh@T!

uncommon sense on September 13, 2012 at 9:55 PM

Just curious, but how are you going to feel if he wins?

And don’t give me a “he won’t” answer.

ccrosby on September 13, 2012 at 9:52 PM

He won’t. But we’re screwed either way. It’s called a “Hobson’s choice”.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:50 PM

Sounds like you from 2008.

wargamer6 on September 13, 2012 at 9:52 PM

No, actually it was pretty clear after Lehman Brothers that McCain’s goose was cooked. You’re the ones who sound like bitter-enders from 2008, talking endlessly about how the polls were fake and the Bradley Effect and the PUMAs are going to come to the rescue and blahblahblah…

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:56 PM

I know..I am officially done with all that. It is too tiring and too time consuming. A waste.

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:49 PM

I’ve seen this happen in other political races. Some people just can’t accept that their idol, that’s what they really are to them, either lost or chose not to run. The supporter takes it personally but can’t blame the idol. So they take it out on everyone else.

Deanna on September 13, 2012 at 9:56 PM

Thanks Allah, now I want to throw up after reading your posting.

Lance Murdock on September 13, 2012 at 9:56 PM

JOHN KERRY LED EVERY POLL UP UNTILL ELECTION RESULTS WERE RELEASED>

We never saw him sworn in, and thank GOd, cause that guy is a Major League Loser. Just like Obama.

tom daschle concerned on September 13, 2012 at 9:56 PM

Nobody’s fault but the Republicans. Mitt could never even articulate in the primaries to more than about 40% of voters why they should vote for him. He does even more poorly with the non-Republicans he would need to win now.

Daikokuco on September 13, 2012 at 9:47 PM

Believe it or not it is not unusual for someone not get a majority in the primaries.

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:57 PM

Here’s something much more significant from American Pulse which measures voter intensity:

Worthington, OH (PRWEB) September 13, 2012
With less than two months to go until the 2012 election, the presidential candidates are ramping up their campaigns in key swing states. Between the two camps and their supporting groups, it’s reported that $575 million has already been spent on political ads. And it appears that their efforts are paying off in regards to energizing voters in these areas. According to the American Pulse™ Voter Intensity Index, residents of Colorado, Virginia and North Carolina are the most likely to be passionate about casting a ballot this November among select swing states profiled. This unique index considers likeliness of voting, excitement to vote, voting frequency and awareness of election coverage. Select states are indexed against Adults 18+. The score provides a better understanding of which states’ voters are more likely to appear at the polls, anxious to make their voices heard.

American Pulse™ Voter Intensity Index of Select Swing States

Colorado: 110.8

Virginia: 107.4

North Carolina: 106.3

Ohio: 103.2

Florida: 101.1

—————————

Wisconsin: 96.1

Iowa: 90.7

Source: American Pulse™ Survey, SEP-12

To be read as: Score of 100 is flat to Adults 18+; Score of 105 indicates score is 5% higher than Adults 18+.

The passion these swing states show for voting this year could mean trouble for President Obama’s campaign. Those states scoring higher on the Voter Intensity Index are more likely to vote for the challenger, while “not as energized” residents in Iowa are more likely to favor the incumbent:

If the Presidential Election were held today, who would you be more likely to vote for?

Colorado

Obama: 42.1%

Romney: 48.6%

Undecided: 9.4%

Virginia

Obama: 35.1%

Romney: 54.2%

Undecided: 10.7%

North Carolina

Obama: 43.0%

Romney: 47.9%

Undecided: 9.1%

Ohio

Obama: 38.8%

Romney: 44.1%

Undecided: 17.1%

Florida

Obama: 43.6%

Romney: 47.6%

Undecided: 8.8%

Wisconsin

Obama: 40.3%

Romney: 42.6%

Undecided: 17.1%

Iowa

Obama: 48.5%

Romney: 33.3%

Undecided: 18.2%

Source: American Pulse™ Survey, SEP-12

writeblock on September 13, 2012 at 9:57 PM

I’ve seen this happen in other political races. Some people just can’t accept that their idol, that’s what they really are to them, either lost or chose not to run. The supporter takes it personally but can’t blame the idol. So they take it out on everyone else.

Deanna on September 13, 2012 at 9:56 PM

Yes, and in some cases it is downright pathological.

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:58 PM

Okay, time to do some debunking.

That Fox News Poll was 41% democrats, and severely unpolled independents. At 41% you could be absolutely slaughtered among Republicans and Independents and you’d probably still get over 45% of the vote. Also, the sample of independents was so small that the margin of error would’ve been immense.

Ohio is being skewed by a number of bad polls right now. The most notorious among them would be the PPP poll, which not only overpolled democrats, but assumed that women would make up 60% of the turnout. In a state where only 51% of registered voters are women, this isn’t going to happen. You would need record high turnout of women voters, and record low turnout of, everyone else,

Adjusting to more realistic turnout actually gets it to about Romney +3, and thats right in the middle of the Obama convention bounce. Also its entirely consistent with an ARG poll released around the same time.

Other examples of dirt poor polling I’ve seen this week would include, SurveyUSA’s Florida poll, which assumed that nearly 30% of the electorate would be between the ages of 18 and 29. For the record, this would’ve been a much bigger turnout among of that age group than in 2008.

Or we have that NBC poll you just cited, which was 42% democrats. Remember it isn’t just the distance between Republicans and Democrats that determines the validity of a poll.

Long story short, these polls, “ARE NOT SCIENTIFIC.” I have been watching polls for a long long time, but I have never seen more sloppy polling than in this election.

Heck, I’m even taking Rasmussen with a grain of salt. From what I’ve heard from people that have paid to see the internals, they’re being a bit generous to Obama too.

WolvenOne on September 13, 2012 at 9:58 PM

Romney just sounds really hungry for yet another Middle-East war, he can’t articulate why tax cuts are good for all classes, he seems like a religious buffoon especially with his recent Palin-like dominionist ramblings, he never says anything specific, and hasn’t even endorsed or pushed for issues like right-to-work or ending ethanol susbsidies. In fact, he opposes them!

Know how that looks to people disenchanted with Obama? Romney looks like a lying pandering fraud neocon wannabe. Nobody wants that.

Daikokuco on September 13, 2012 at 9:59 PM

writeblock on September 13, 2012 at 9:57 PM

Thanks for that.

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:59 PM

I’ve seen this happen in other political races. Some people just can’t accept that their idol, that’s what they really are to them, either lost or chose not to run. The supporter takes it personally but can’t blame the idol. So they take it out on everyone else.

Deanna on September 13, 2012 at 9:56 PM

A lot of people have been saying for years that Romney is pretty much a non-starter. You probably suspect the same, so you have to continually use Palin as some sort of in absentia foil to feel better about Mitt. It’s a ‘bot characteristic, apparently.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 10:00 PM

Seriously Allah, you’re taking stock in madia based polls? When will you ever learn? Just watch the polls that are done by reputable pollsters.

Tater Salad on September 13, 2012 at 10:01 PM

Know how that looks to people disenchanted with Obama? Romney looks like a lying pandering fraud neocon wannabe. Nobody wants that.

Daikokuco on September 13, 2012 at 9:59 PM

What a pile of crap that was. Not one word of truth in it..and btw, the Democrats were just ragging on Romney for not being supportive enough of the war in Afghanistan. Some people have just decided they hate the man and nothing he can do is going to change their opinions.

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 10:01 PM

Deanna on September 13, 2012 at 9:56 PM

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:58 PM

Go back and read the comments to see who was the first one in this thread to bring her name up.

I’ll give you a hint – it wasn’t a Palin supporter.

Flora Duh on September 13, 2012 at 10:01 PM

JOHN KERRY LED EVERY POLL UP UNTILL ELECTION RESULTS WERE RELEASED>

tom daschle concerned on September 13, 2012 at 9:56 PM

No, he didn’t.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 10:02 PM

IMHO – if after the last 4 yrs Obama is polling like this, the economy or healthcare is not going tank him.

Unbelievable….. But how else can you explain those numbers?

we better hope national security becomes the number 1 issue to voters in the next 2 weeks and at the debates !

…..Who’s advising Romney on FP?

Can.I.be.in.the.middle on September 13, 2012 at 10:02 PM

I have a poll for you all. Regarding Dick Morris. This guy has worked on elections and was Clinton’s advisor once. Do you all feel his confidence in a Romney win is based on actual data or his plan to motivate us. I think he is just trying to keep us in the game. I think a lot of what he says is anecdotal and his way to play with our minds. What does he have to lose anyway.

Robb on September 13, 2012 at 9:44 PM

Not sure if you noticed, but he’s good stuff to sell you. I disregard ANYONE asking me to BUY something.

riddick on September 13, 2012 at 10:02 PM

Deanna on September 13, 2012 at 9:56 PM

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:58 PM

Go back and read the comments to see who was the first one in this thread to bring her name up.

I’ll give you a hint – it wasn’t a Palin supporter.

Flora Duh on September 13, 2012 at 10:01 PM

Bingo.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 10:02 PM

Hmmm…you should really be worrying more about the support Romney doesn’t seem to have.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:45 PM

As a fellow Palinista, I am worrying somewhat, but not going to set my hair on fire. Romney wasn’t even on my list, but here we are and have to make the best of it.

I read everyone’s opinion and even agreed with angryed (remember him?) a while back on getting the drive over the cliff done with sooner than later. I debated it and was almost there.

Then the “transmit to Vlad” moment happened. That was it. I realized that another four years of Obama would put the country in a hole that it may never recover from. We are seeing some of the fruits of that the last few days.

I know it sucks voting for another RINO. I’m talking to you as a fellow traveler.

Now whether you vote for Romney, stay home or third party your vote, that’s fine. It’s your vote. I would ask you to reconsider and vote Romney as really it’s either him or Obama and for the many obvious reasons another four years of Obama may be unsalvageable.

But please don’t denigrate us who have come to this conclusion, some of us VERY unwillingly, and are making our peace with it. Just leave us be and quit being rude and poking. We’re all doing the best we can in an ugly situation and we should at the very least give each other that respect.

This was written in all sincerity and I hope you take it as such.

kim roy on September 13, 2012 at 10:02 PM

A lot of people have been saying for years that Romney is pretty much a non-starter. You probably suspect the same, so you have to continually use Palin as some sort of in absentia foil to feel better about Mitt. It’s a ‘bot characteristic, apparently.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 10:00 PM

Like shooting fish in a barrel. LOL
Did I mention Palin? Could have been Barbour, or Christie, or Pence, or…
This is too easy.

Deanna on September 13, 2012 at 10:03 PM

I have a poll for you all. Regarding Dick Morris. This guy has worked on elections and was Clinton’s advisor once. Do you all feel his confidence in a Romney win is based on actual data or his plan to motivate us. I think he is just trying to keep us in the game. I think a lot of what he says is anecdotal and his way to play with our minds. What does he have to lose anyway.

i think he believes what he says.

I do believe he’s right about 2 things. If an incumbent is under 50 percent approval he probably won’t win.

2. the challenger gets the majority of last minute deciders.

However our electoral college system makes it practically impossible
to determine in advance a very close election.

blowouts are much easier to predict.

I noticed in the primaries that if most polls were outside of the margin of error they were usually correct.

but the close polls were the leader was just up 2-3 points just as many times the candidate trailing won versus the candidate leading

gerrym51 on September 13, 2012 at 10:04 PM

Like shooting fish in a barrel. LOL
Did I mention Palin? Could have been Barbour, or Christie, or Pence, or…
This is too easy.

Deanna on September 13, 2012 at 10:03 PM

Well you and the other ‘bot squadristas didn’t spend 30 comments talking about Barbour or Christie or Pence, did ya? ‘Course not.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 10:05 PM

But please don’t denigrate us who have come to this conclusion, some of us VERY unwillingly, and are making our peace with it. Just leave us be and quit being rude and poking. We’re all doing the best we can in an ugly situation and we should at the very least give each other that respect.

kim roy on September 13, 2012 at 10:02 PM

Bingo.

Flora Duh on September 13, 2012 at 10:05 PM

He won’t. But we’re screwed either way. It’s called a “Hobson’s choice”.

OK, so I had to look up “Hobson’s Choice” and I realize it is Wikipedia, but answer me this riddler…

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_dilemma

ccrosby on September 13, 2012 at 10:05 PM

Go back and read the comments to see who was the first one in this thread to bring her name up.

I’ll give you a hint – it wasn’t a Palin supporter.

Flora Duh on September 13, 2012 at 10:01 PM

Strange enough, Romney camp STILL makes sure to bring up Palin’s name each and every time they can, on TV and radio. Guess it makes their guy look more “presidential”.

They must fear her more than Hussein…

But it makes it so much easier to add to the list of idiots who can’t even concentrate on the job and opportunity presented to them.

riddick on September 13, 2012 at 10:05 PM

Romney’s already tepid levels of support may be collapsing in the polls both nationally and especially in key swing states but he’ll always be tops in our hearts, right guys? And that’s where it counts, I tell you. That’s where it counts.

casuist on September 13, 2012 at 10:06 PM

Don’t look now………..but her majesty HILLARY (Miss 2016) may have to take the fall for this one.

http://drudgereport.com/

beautiful. Bring the disgusting SOS down for her “FAILURE OF LEADERSHIP”……….and maybe while we’re at it….

Who does the buck stop with?


Barack Obama…………A FAILURE TO LEAD.

PappyD61 on September 13, 2012 at 10:07 PM

Go back and read the comments to see who was the first one in this thread to bring her name up.

I’ll give you a hint – it wasn’t a Palin supporter.

Flora Duh on September 13, 2012 at 10:01 PM

Flora..I have been around with ddrintin enough to know that he does not have to bring her name up…every post is about her whether he brings her name up or not.

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 10:08 PM

casuist on September 13, 2012 at 10:06 PM

Bless your little heart.

Flora Duh on September 13, 2012 at 10:08 PM

Barack Obama…………A FAILURE TO LEAD.

PappyD61 on September 13, 2012 at 10:07 PM

FIFY

riddick on September 13, 2012 at 10:08 PM

But please don’t denigrate us who have come to this conclusion, some of us VERY unwillingly, and are making our peace with it. Just leave us be and quit being rude and poking. We’re all doing the best we can in an ugly situation and we should at the very least give each other that respect.

kim roy on September 13, 2012 at 10:02 PM

Bingo.

Flora Duh on September 13, 2012 at 10:05 PM

I’ll certainly bite back against the a$$holes who sit there and call me an O-bot simply because I point out, and have pointed out for quite a while, a fundamental law of nature: Dem wins against Dem Lite every time. Nationally, at least.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 10:09 PM

Strange enough, Romney camp STILL makes sure to bring up Palin’s name each and every time they can, on TV and radio. Guess it makes their guy look more “presidential”.

They must fear her more than Hussein…

But it makes it so much easier to add to the list of idiots who can’t even concentrate on the job and opportunity presented to them.

riddick on September 13, 2012 at 10:05 PM

That is ridiculous.

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 10:09 PM

Flora..I have been around with ddrintin enough to know that he does not have to bring her name up…every post is about her whether he brings her name up or not.

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 10:08 PM

You’re the one who’s pathological.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 10:10 PM

I still don’t get why you don’t post information like the above American Pulse poll that just came out and was posted on Yahoo but you go out of your way to post a crappy poll like this. First off, unless there’s a huge sampling of voters as with the Pulse poll, state polls are notoriously inaccurate. Second, the turnout samples are ridiculously weighted in favor of the Dems.

writeblock on September 13, 2012 at 10:10 PM

This country is absolutely screwed if Obama is reelected…I can’t believe it’s even close now =( Makes me sad for this country and it’s future right now..have to have hope for change but it’s tough

sadsushi on September 13, 2012 at 10:11 PM

Go back and read the comments to see who was the first one in this thread to bring her name up.

I’ll give you a hint – it wasn’t a Palin supporter.

Flora Duh on September 13, 2012 at 10:01 PM

Geez another one. LOL Did I say it was Palin? Could have been anyone who chose not to run.
I’ve been meaning to ask you. Did/do you post at Free Republic?

Deanna on September 13, 2012 at 10:12 PM

Seriously? People are bringing up Palin’s name in this discussion? I can’t imagine how bad the polling would have been.

Tater Salad on September 13, 2012 at 10:13 PM

Deanna on September 13, 2012 at 10:12 PM

Another one what?

Flora Duh on September 13, 2012 at 10:13 PM

Whoa! Catching up on Hannity and he’s arguing, vociferously I might add, with McCain about Lybia. And then in the middle of McLame’s response he got “thanks very much Senator, and now we go to…”

Wow! Have never seen Hannity give McLame a hard time…

ccrosby on September 13, 2012 at 10:13 PM

Romney is cooked at this rate he’ll be lucky to win NC and IN.

Daikokuco on September 13, 2012 at 10:13 PM

This country is absolutely screwed if Obama is reelected…I can’t believe it’s even close now =( Makes me sad for this country and it’s future right now..have to have hope for change but it’s tough

sadsushi on September 13, 2012 at 10:11 PM

Almost 50% live for free, how do you think they will vote come Nov?

riddick on September 13, 2012 at 10:15 PM

Seriously? People are bringing up Palin’s name in this discussion? I can’t imagine how bad the polling would have been.

Tater Salad on September 13, 2012 at 10:13 PM

No worse thanb Mr Electability’s, apparently.

Geez another one. LOL Did I say it was Palin? Could have been anyone who chose not to run.
I’ve been meaning to ask you. Did/do you post at Free Republic?

Deanna on September 13, 2012 at 10:12 PM

Oh, come on. The page full of anti-Palin snark prior was a dead giveaway, sweetie.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 10:15 PM

Wow! Have never seen Hannity give McLame a hard time…

ccrosby on September 13, 2012 at 10:13 PM

I was ready to reach into TV and rip McLaim’s throat out for spewing nothing but lies on top of lies, even Hannety got disgusted and he’s pretty tolerant to liberals.

riddick on September 13, 2012 at 10:16 PM

Well you and the other ‘bot squadristas didn’t spend 30 comments talking about Barbour or Christie or Pence, did ya? ‘Course not.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 10:05 PM

Bot squad? OMG you have gone off the deep end. And now you count posts too? Sigh, you’re sad.
Look if you have someone you support fine. Just say so and go out and get them elected. If you don’t have anyone then why do you care what we say or think? Admit it, you do this to stroke your ego. Becaue you have to know it accomplishes nothing else.

Have a nice night.

Deanna on September 13, 2012 at 10:17 PM

Romney is cooked at this rate he’ll be lucky to win NC and IN.

Daikokuco on September 13, 2012 at 10:13 PM

I live in Indiana..last I heard Romney had a double digit lead here.

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 10:17 PM

Right Mover on September 13, 2012 at 9:36 PM

You need all Republicans to win, but it was the beltway types that gave us Romney. It’s the conservatives that aren’t being won over.

newtopia on September 13, 2012 at 10:19 PM

Another one what?

Flora Duh on September 13, 2012 at 10:13 PM
Someone who jumped to a conclusion. Have a nice night.

Deanna on September 13, 2012 at 10:19 PM

I’ll certainly bite back against the a$$holes who sit there and call me an O-bot simply because I point out, and have pointed out for quite a while, a fundamental law of nature: Dem wins against Dem Lite every time. Nationally, at least.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 10:09 PM

I fully and completely understand how you feel. This is a very difficult process. It’s insane on a number of levels, the least of which is that Obama is not polling at 5%.

This is the hand we are dealt. We have to work with it, even if it’s a crappy one.

Pointing out the difficulties doesn’t help, tho. We know it’s going to be hard and there’s a chance Romney can lose. You think it’s easy? We don’t need the constant reminder it’s hard. We need to keep working and doing what we can.

This may not be your intention, but it seems like you are rubbing our noses in it. We know the difficulties yet we feel it’s worth it compared to the alternative. If you can’t be with us, and I wish you were, then by all means. Please just don’t hector us. It’s difficult enough as it is!

kim roy on September 13, 2012 at 10:19 PM

I live in Indiana..last I heard Romney had a double digit lead here.

If you lose Indiana you lose in a landslide. Indiana, for all practical purposes, is an irrelevant state.

newtopia on September 13, 2012 at 10:20 PM

Oops, sorry Flora Duh, didn’t mean to strike out your comment. Been a long day. Have a good hight.

Deanna on September 13, 2012 at 10:20 PM

Romney is cooked at this rate he’ll be lucky to win NC and IN.

Daikokuco on September 13, 2012 at 10:13 PM

I’m planning a vacation for this time next year in TN. Could you please give me the weather forecast for this date in 2013? Thanks in advance.

Flora Duh on September 13, 2012 at 10:21 PM

I still think Romney is going to win, however it would be nice if Romney would stop bringing up American leadership in places like Syria. He has a chance to nail Obama to the wall on his handling of the idiotic Arab Spring, but it is hard to do that by pushing for intervention into Syria to promote democracy there.

Please Romney stop talking about Syria….Americans don’t care!!!!

Have any of us learned anything about all this? Bush? Obama? Romney? Anyone? It is so frustrating…and depressing because nobody wants to admit why democracy does not work in the middle east….it is called Islam.

William Eaton on September 13, 2012 at 10:21 PM

This is the hand we are dealt. We have to work with it, even if it’s a crappy one.

You need at least a pair of twos…and we don’t even have that with this hand.

newtopia on September 13, 2012 at 10:21 PM

I was ready to reach into TV and rip McLaim’s throat out for spewing nothing but lies on top of lies, even Hannety got disgusted and he’s pretty tolerant to liberals.

riddick on September 13, 2012 at 10:16 PM

I might argue with “tolerant”, but he does have way too many freaking lib’s on his show, particularly that scumbag Tamara Holder. Why does anyone give that piece air time?

Excluding Rev. Jackson of course…

ccrosby on September 13, 2012 at 10:21 PM

Go back and read the comments to see who was the first one in this thread to bring her name up.

I’ll give you a hint – it wasn’t a Palin supporter.

Flora Duh

Doesn’t make the kool aid slurping nista cultists like ddrintn any less the kool aid slurping nista cultists that they are though, does it?

xblade on September 13, 2012 at 10:22 PM

By the way, notice in the American Pulse poll which came out today, not one of the polls show Obama over 50%. He is grotesquely overrated. He’s got the media behind him, sure–which was one reason it jumped all over Romney yesterday. It’s not our guy who’s panicking, it’s the media and their string-pullers.

If the Presidential Election were held today, who would you be more likely to vote for?

Colorado

Obama: 42.1%

Romney: 48.6%

Undecided: 9.4%

Virginia

Obama: 35.1%

Romney: 54.2%

Undecided: 10.7%

North Carolina

Obama: 43.0%

Romney: 47.9%

Undecided: 9.1%

Ohio

Obama: 38.8%

Romney: 44.1%

Undecided: 17.1%

Florida

Obama: 43.6%

Romney: 47.6%

Undecided: 8.8%

Wisconsin

Obama: 40.3%

Romney: 42.6%

Undecided: 17.1%

Iowa

Obama: 48.5%

Romney: 33.3%

Undecided: 18.2%

Source: American Pulse™ Survey, SEP-12

writeblock on September 13, 2012 at 10:24 PM

Romney is cooked at this rate he’ll be lucky to win NC and IN.

Daikokuco on September 13, 2012 at 10:13 PM

I’m planning a vacation for this time next year in TN. Could you please give me the weather forecast for this date in 2013? Thanks in advance.

Flora Duh on September 13, 2012 at 10:21 PM

Woman, make it worth your while and ask for the winning numbers.

kim roy on September 13, 2012 at 10:25 PM

I still think Romney is going to win, however it would be nice if Romney would stop bringing up American leadership in places like Syria. He has a chance to nail Obama to the wall on his handling of the idiotic Arab Spring, but it is hard to do that by pushing for intervention into Syria to promote democracy there.

William Eaton on September 13, 2012 at 10:21 PM

He can’t very well delve too deeply into Obama’s screw up in Egypt.

President Obama: “Mubarak must go.”

Mitt Romney one day later: “Mubarak must go

sharrukin on September 13, 2012 at 10:30 PM

Oh FFS, another thread that has nothing to do with SP turned into mud slinging match about SP.

I’m shocked! Shocked, I tells ya!

Flora Duh on September 13, 2012 at 9:46 PM

I know..I am officially done with all that. It is too tiring and too time consuming. A waste.

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:49 PM

I’ve seen this happen in other political races. Some people just can’t accept that their idol, that’s what they really are to them, either lost or chose not to run. The supporter takes it personally but can’t blame the idol. So they take it out on everyone else.

Deanna on September 13, 2012 at 9:56 PM

Deanna on September 13, 2012 at 9:56 PM

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:58 PM

Go back and read the comments to see who was the first one in this thread to bring her name up.

I’ll give you a hint – it wasn’t a Palin supporter.

Flora Duh on September 13, 2012 at 10:01 PM

Geez another one. LOL Did I say it was Palin? Could have been anyone who chose not to run.
I’ve been meaning to ask you. Did/do you post at Free Republic?

Deanna on September 13, 2012 at 10:12 PM

Another one what?

Flora Duh on September 13, 2012 at 10:13 PM

Someone who jumped to a conclusion. Have a nice night.

Deanna on September 13, 2012 at 10:19 PM

You’re right of course Deanna. I have no idea what would have given me the impression you were talking about Palin.

Good evening.

Flora Duh on September 13, 2012 at 10:30 PM

He won’t. But we’re screwed either way. It’s called a “Hobson’s choice”.

OK, so I tried to engage you with polite conversation, but that is apparently not what you’re here for…

I’ll keep that in mind in the future.

ccrosby on September 13, 2012 at 10:30 PM

Go back and read the comments to see who was the first one in this thread to bring her name up.

I’ll give you a hint – it wasn’t a Palin supporter.

Flora Duh

Doesn’t make the kool aid slurping nista cultists like ddrintn any less the kool aid slurping nista cultists that they are though, does it?

xblade on September 13, 2012 at 10:22 PM

Since I’ve been here ddrintn and unseen were two of my favorite posters. Both strong Palinistas and passionate about the country. There were a lot of tough times with a lot of “conservatives” who took a lot of shots at Palin, many of them gratuitously.

That comment of yours was unfair and gratuitous. ddrintn loves his (her?) country AND is a Palinista. We should be reminding him (her?) that Palin wants us to vote for Romney even if we don’t like it because it’s unthinkable to have Obama for another four years.

Can’t someone be a Palinista and still love the country and want to do the right thing?

kim roy on September 13, 2012 at 10:31 PM

1. The film was trash made by an Egyptian felon. The comments about Mohammed were obviously, amateurishly dubbed in post production.

2. Questioning and reassigning every polls split to a favorable result is whistling past the grave yard. If …Obama is up in Ohio it’s due to a more effective campaign here. I live in Columbus and see Obama ad’s 2/1 easy. There is one in particular that is VERY effective, I’ve heard folks talking about it a the HS football games. It’s the one where the guy talks about building the stage for the big company announcement where they announce the factory shut down … He then goes on to say, it was like building my own coffin. Like it or not, believe it or not, that add is resonating with folks.

3. Lastly Kasich has done Romney no favors, Romney ad’s and stump Say Ohio is suffering, Kasich says Ohio is doing great…. at same appearance

NextGen on September 13, 2012 at 10:31 PM

’ll certainly bite back against the a$$holes who sit there and call me an O-bot simply because I point out, and have pointed out for quite a while, a fundamental law of nature: Dem wins against Dem Lite every time. Nationally, at least.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 10:09 PM

I fully and completely understand how you feel. This is a very difficult process.

Don’t buy it. The guy’s a plant. The whole point of trolling is to pose as a conservative to undermine the only candidate we’ve got who can beat his guy.

writeblock on September 13, 2012 at 10:33 PM

I might argue with “tolerant”, but he does have way too many freaking lib’s on his show, particularly that scumbag Tamara Holder. Why does anyone give that piece air time?

Excluding Rev. Jackson of course…

ccrosby on September 13, 2012 at 10:21 PM

If you recall, Fox News changed overnight, right after Murdock spent almost a day at DoJ discussing phone tapping and such. Neither he nor his son were ever charged with anything, but immediately after they started hiring rabid liberals at an ever increasing rate. Beckel, who would have been fired long ago by anyone else, is happily employed. They keep bringing rabid libs despite some truly stupid statement, never mid OPEN LIES, day after day.

I can’t explain any of this any other way, especially when they suspended Palin’s appearances when GOP convention was taking place. Murdock must be working on some list from above.

Malkin let Tamara have it a couple of weeks back, have no idea why Hannety even allowed the idiot to continue talking that day, but again, I am sure they have their marching orders and money for them overrides other concerns. I can’t explain any other way why Hannety would contemplate having Beckel, WhoAnne and Tamara on his show otherwise, people like that have no place on a supposed “neutral” show, there is nothing neutral about rabid communists having a platform to spout lies, lies and more lies. And get paid for it, too.

All I can say, GOP women have BALLS, and save for Allen West, Gowdy and a few others, no GOP males do.

riddick on September 13, 2012 at 10:35 PM

So now I’m supposed to believe that America is happy with Obamacare, the debt, the unemployment, that we approve of Obama’s performance, that he deserves re-election, and that America is moving in the right direction. Huh? What? Gee, let’s look at some other polls tonight. Rasmussen, anyone (via WS)?

“Rasmussen’s polling shows Obama up by 2 points (48 to 46 percent) in Florida, 1 point (47 to 46 percent) in Ohio, 4 points (48 to 44 percent) in Pennsylvania, and 5 points (50 to 45 percent) in Nevada. It shows Romney up by 1 point (48 to 47 percent) in Wisconsin and 2 points (46 to 44 percent) in Iowa.”

I wonder if any of this will change by NOVEMBER?

RobertMN on September 13, 2012 at 10:38 PM

President Obama: “Mubarak must go.”

Mitt Romney one day later: “Mubarak must go“

sharrukin on September 13, 2012 at 10:30 PM

Stop paying attention to details. Obviously this crowd doesn’t care.

riddick on September 13, 2012 at 10:38 PM

So now I’m supposed to believe that America is happy with Obamacare, the debt, the unemployment, that we approve of Obama’s performance, that he deserves re-election, and that America is moving in the right direction.

RobertMN on September 13, 2012 at 10:38 PM

Keep repeating, “50% percenters“. Hopefully you’ll understand.

They do believe.

riddick on September 13, 2012 at 10:39 PM

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