WSJ/NBC poll: Obama now leads by five in Virginia and Florida, by seven in Ohio

posted at 8:03 pm on September 13, 2012 by Allahpundit

I know your first thought is always of the samples, so here you go: I’m listing the WSJ/NBC poll partisan split first and then the 2008 exit poll split for each state for comparison. And yes, this is likely voters:

Virginia: 31D/26R/43I (39/33/27)

Ohio: 38D/28R/32I (39/31/30)

Florida: 35D/33R/30I (37/34/29)

The Democratic turnout advantage in this model would be only a point less in Virginia and Florida than it was at the apex of Hopenchange in 2008, and in Ohio it would actually be two points greater. That’s not happening in November, but O’s lead in each state is wide enough here that I think he probably is ahead — narrowly. According to RCP’s averages, in fact, he’s up by just 1.3 points in Florida and 0.4 points in Virginia, and those numbers incorporate his gaudy leads in this WSJ/NBC poll. Even more reason not to panic: This poll was conducted from Sept. 9-11, when Obama still had a bit of a convention bounce. That bounce now appears to be gone; Ramussen’s daily tracker actually has Romney back in the lead today nationally.

The real worry for Romney is Ohio, where he’s now down 4.2 points in the RCP average and which is virtually must-win. Unemployment’s down to 7.2 percent there and the auto bailout is popular; Ohio’s also a sharp contrast with Wisconsin insofar as Kasich’s proposed collective-bargaining reforms for public-employee unions went down in flames at the polls. Not going to be easy for Romney. And per WSJ/NBC, there aren’t many undecideds left in swing states:

What’s particularly striking about these polls, Miringoff observes, is how most voters in these battleground states have already made up their minds, with just 5 to 6 percent saying they’re undecided, and with more than 80 percent signaling that they strongly support their candidate.

“Those who are thinking of voting have pretty much picked sides,” he says.

In Florida and Virginia, Obama and Romney are essentially tied among likely voters on the question of which candidate would do a better job handling the economy, although Obama has a four-point advantage on this question in Ohio.

But when it comes to handling foreign policy, the incumbent Democratic president enjoys a double-digit lead over his Republican challenger.

Again, this poll was conducted from Sunday through Tuesday, the day of the embassy attacks in Cairo and Benghazi. Let’s see how that foreign-policy question looks next week. On the other hand, because eeyore’s gotta be eeyore, note that Fox News’s national poll released last night is also showing a national lead for Obama of five points, 48/43. That poll was conducted over the same period as WSJ/NBC’s, so there’s bounciness built in there too, and the partisan split — 42D vs. 36R — strikes me as a bit more Democratic than we’ll see on election day. But again, the takeaway here is that O probably is ahead by a point or two. Nothing fatal. But Mitt needs a little momentum.

Click the image below for Pat Caddell’s thoughts on the worst campaign evah. Exit question: Team Romney’s now counting on the debates to be their launching pad, but, er, have the debates ever actually decided an election? Says John Sides, “Indeed, scholars who have looked most carefully at the data have found that, when it comes to shifting enough votes to decide the outcome of the election, presidential debates have rarely, if ever, mattered.”


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pjean on September 13, 2012 at 9:12 PM

It’s what they do. If Romney was up 30, they’d be bitching why isn’t he up 35 and OMG WE WON’T WIN HAWAII!!!!11

wargamer6 on September 13, 2012 at 9:14 PM

Bruno Strozek on September 13, 2012 at 9:06 PM

He TRIED to hold a moment of silence for the victims, while in VA, I thnk, but was heckled out of it.
Didn’t hear much else of the rally speech.

pambi on September 13, 2012 at 9:14 PM

The only even semi-recent year when the polls were “fluid” in a Presidential race was back in 1980, when Reagan rallied to beat Carter.

Just look at past elections and you will see that this thing is pretty much locked and loaded at this point.

gumbyandpokey on September 13, 2012 at 9:07 PM

’84 & ’88.

Ps. You forgot to click your heels together three times.

Kataklysmic on September 13, 2012 at 9:14 PM

Romney needs FL, VA and OH and it’s growing apparent that he’s going to lose all 3.

It’s pretty much over and unless a miracle occurs at the debates or a meteor falls on the White House.

newtopia on September 13, 2012 at 9:14 PM

Obama’s Auto Bailout: 20,000 Workers Lost Pensions

Damn I love Obama!!!

/

CW on September 13, 2012 at 9:15 PM

While the media based polls are designed to depress the conservative vote one question always comes to mind; What constituency does Obama out perform ’08, at the height of hopenchange? Catholics? No, Jews? No, Youth? No, heck he won’t even get as high of a percentage of the black vote

Where does his 50% come from?

Tater Salad on September 13, 2012 at 9:15 PM

You hit them every day, relentlessly, from every angle. You make them dizzy defending themselves. Every day. The debates are just another day, a chance to back up everything you’ve already said and maybe stick a knife in with a smile while you’re at it. This “we’re saving it all for the debates” is ludicrous, and the sure sign of a loser.

rrpjr on September 13, 2012 at 9:12 PM

They do not have to defend themselves, they have the media to do it for them..they do not sweat.

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:15 PM

At this point in time, the math says there is no way possible for Obama to win in the fall. He doesn’t even expect to win in the fall:

http://hillbuzz.org/prominent-members-of-chicago-black-community-confirm-those-closest-to-obama-know-there-is-no-second-term-coming-42773

crosspatch on September 13, 2012 at 9:15 PM

Only swing state residents are going to see the ad blitz, and it’s going to shift around markets where depressing the Obama vote and increasing Romney’s is needed. But he’s spending the money. You check it out here.

de rigueur on September 13, 2012 at 9:08 PM

Please explain how I have to watch national ads for Obama on tvland every single night and he has less money than Romney. I’ve always felt that Romney needed to be more national for the sake of more exposure. Friends and relatives talke to each other across state lines. I just dont see how you cannot stir as many people as you can and raise the national polls. Then the swing states can follow suit. I just dont get the stragegy. I just dont.

Robb on September 13, 2012 at 9:15 PM

What the hell? Has AMC turned into The Green Mile Channel?

Lanceman on September 13, 2012 at 9:16 PM

Romney needs FL, VA and OH and it’s growing apparent that he’s going to lose all 3.

It’s pretty much over and unless a miracle occurs at the debates or a meteor falls on the White House.

newtopia on September 13, 2012 at 9:14 PM

Do you even pay effing attention?

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/09/13/Ohio-is-Neck-and-neck

I tire of you idiots.

CW on September 13, 2012 at 9:16 PM

newtopia on September 13, 2012 at 9:14 PM

Be honest. You have one of those stupid “Hope” posters, don’t you?

wargamer6 on September 13, 2012 at 9:16 PM

“You are just running your mouth. You do not know jack sh*t.”

http://blogs.fayobserver.com/campaign2012/September-2012/Bad-Week–Has-the-Romney-Campaign-Panicked-

gumbyandpokey on September 13, 2012 at 9:16 PM

These polls are bizarre- given how many people I come across who say they’re going Romney this year, but they went Obama in 2008, I don’t see how Barry wins again. Our side is going to come out like gangbusters, AND we have the majority of independents. I don’t know who they’re polling, but it’s not logical.

BettyRuth on September 13, 2012 at 9:16 PM

While the media based polls are designed to depress the conservative vote one question always comes to mind; What constituency does Obama out perform ’08, at the height of hopenchange? Catholics? No, Jews? No, Youth? No, heck he won’t even get as high of a percentage of the black vote

Where does his 50% come from?

Tater Salad on September 13, 2012 at 9:15 PM

Well, there are all those people who have been made wards of the state thanks to his crappy economic policies..believe it or not some of them will vote for the Democrat out of fear of losing some benefit…Democrats love poor people, that is why they go to such lengths to make sure there are a lot of them.

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:17 PM

Rarely does the trailing candidate in mid September go on to win in November. Reagan did it, but he was the exception and not the rule. If you can think of others, name them.

gumbyandpokey on September 13, 2012 at 8:55 PM

And rarely have we had a President who is willfully 1) bankrupting the nation and 2) willfully making our nation more vulnerable by the day to threats from murderous enemies.

Rarely.

Right Mover on September 13, 2012 at 9:18 PM

The Green Mile Channel?

Lanceman on September 13, 2012 at 9:16 PM

Hmmm interesting idea.

I am waiting for the Into the Blue channel.

I could watch Alba swim all night long.

CW on September 13, 2012 at 9:18 PM

These polls are bizarre- given how many people I come across who say they’re going Romney this year, but they went Obama in 2008, I don’t see how Barry wins again. Our side is going to come out like gangbusters, AND we have the majority of independents. I don’t know who they’re polling, but it’s not logical.

BettyRuth on September 13, 2012 at 9:16 PM

I know. It might be anecdotal but I hardly know of anyone who is voting for Obama..a few die hard yellow dog Democrats, but most people that I know around here hate the guy.

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:19 PM

I’m gonna go over this one more time and it’s likely not the last time. This is something Rush was discussing today, as he’s been all over this air of “inevitability” of an Obama victory that the slimestreamers have been trying to advance with these skewed polls to dishearten and discourage us all from voting. Rush’s point today was that it’s not about Romney being behind it’s: Why isn’t Bammie ahead by much more? If Obumbler’s got this thing in the bag, then why don’t these polls have him up by 10 to 20 points? Prezuhdunce Opology has the pollsters and the slimestreamers in his empty suit pocket (the suit’s empty not the pocket) so why doesn’t he have a higher advantage? Embellishment will never stop the libturd mediots.

And my question is that if 90% or more of voters have their minds made up, what is it that makes these polls keep changing? Does it just depend on which plot of weeds the pollsters are raking through on any particular day?

stukinIL4now on September 13, 2012 at 9:19 PM

gumbyandpokey on September 13, 2012 at 9:16 PM

Well damn. Some guy no one’s ever heard from said so, so it must be true.

wargamer6 on September 13, 2012 at 9:19 PM

any poll similar to 2008 is goat manure. We got this.

rob verdi on September 13, 2012 at 9:19 PM

I’m giving these poll numbers 1-2 weeks to collapse. I fully expect they will. Especially with Mitt now taking a harder line.

If not, it’s time for a course change, Mitt. No ore Mr. Nice Guy. Go for the throat.

petefrt on September 13, 2012 at 8:15 PM

If the polls don’t swing back hard his way, I hope Romney does this. He doesn’t have the personality to be an angry, foaming-at-the-mouth partisan, but I hope he throws caution to the wind and does what Reagan did — go over and around the media straight to the American people. I’d really like to see a series of ads where he’s sitting at a presidential desk, flags behind him, Oval Office-ish, looking into the camera, telling it like it is, like it really, really is. It’s time for some Real Talk. Go for it, Mitt.

Rational Thought on September 13, 2012 at 8:22 PM

You just have to laugh when you read this kind of stuff.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:19 PM

wargamer6 on September 13, 2012 at 9:09 PM

Insult me all you like. I remember in 2008, I was sure that the disgruntled PUMAs would keep Obama from winning. I literally had to take off two days after the election because I was so shocked. I will never be blindsided like that again.

Also, sometimes I say that the worse things are going to happen because in my mind, if I do that, the opposite will be true. It is a coping mechanism. When I was younger, if my mom was late to pick me up, I always imagined that she must have gotten into a terrible car accident. I was always wrong, so ever since I assume, rather childishly, that if I expect something terrible to happen, it won’t.

andy85719 on September 13, 2012 at 9:19 PM

newtopia on September 13, 2012 at 9:14 PM

This poster / poser is a troll. Ignore.

rebuzz on September 13, 2012 at 9:19 PM

Just look at past elections and you will see that this I’m thing is pretty much locked and loaded at this point.

gumbyandpokey on September 13, 2012 at 9:07 PM

uncommon sense on September 13, 2012 at 9:19 PM

I don’t know who they’re polling, but it’s not logical.

BettyRuth on September 13, 2012 at 9:16 PM

People love having 23 million or so unemployed. They love having mom, dad, and the grandparents home all day./

CW on September 13, 2012 at 9:19 PM

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:19 PM

gumby thinks you’re stupid.

wargamer6 on September 13, 2012 at 9:19 PM

CW on September 13, 2012 at 9:16 PM

I admit I don’t get all my news from Big Government. These guys are pretty much the Michael Savage of conservative news outlets.

newtopia on September 13, 2012 at 9:19 PM

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:19 PM

This poster / poser is a troll. Ignore.

rebuzz on September 13, 2012 at 9:20 PM

andy85719 on September 13, 2012 at 9:19 PM

Maybe you should seriously step away from this. You can’t handle pressure.

wargamer6 on September 13, 2012 at 9:20 PM

“’84 & ’88.”

Are you crazy?!?!

In both those years, the Republican had the second convention, and following that convention, took a huge lead that was never challenged. And by mid September, the election was a mere formality. Nothing was fluid at all. Like this year, the end result was a given. You guys are just flat-out delusional about what happens in Presidential elections!

gumbyandpokey on September 13, 2012 at 9:21 PM

newtopia on September 13, 2012 at 9:19 PM

Yup. Your news of choice is HuffPo and Kos.

wargamer6 on September 13, 2012 at 9:21 PM

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:19 PM

Getting cold under your rock?

How’s your canvassing for Obama going?

CW on September 13, 2012 at 9:21 PM

A

nd my question is that if 90% or more of voters have their minds made up, what is it that makes these polls keep changing? Does it just depend on which plot of weeds the pollsters are raking through on any particular day?

stukinIL4now on September 13, 2012 at 9:19 PM

I wondered about that..it is like there are people who just go back and forth and back and forth between the two candidates…except for that 8 or 10 percent that do nowhere.

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:21 PM

gumbyandpokey on September 13, 2012 at 9:21 PM

How’s that obama tattoo?

wargamer6 on September 13, 2012 at 9:22 PM

I’m gonna go over this one more time and it’s likely not the last time. This is something Rush was discussing today, as he’s been all over this air of “inevitability” of an Obama victory that the slimestreamers have been trying to advance with these skewed polls to dishearten and discourage us all from voting. Rush’s point today was that it’s not about Romney being behind it’s: Why isn’t Bammie ahead by much more? If Obumbler’s got this thing in the bag, then why don’t these polls have him up by 10 to 20 points?

stukinIL4now on September 13, 2012 at 9:19 PM

No, the tough, tough question is: given the state the country’s in, and given the aura of Ultra-Electability and Holy Moderation Acceptable To Indies that has surrounded Romney for the past 4 years, why isn’t Mitt cruising?

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:22 PM

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:19 PM

gumby thinks you’re stupid.

wargamer6 on September 13, 2012 at 9:19 PM

ahh that hurts my feelings..but then I think gumby is a pathetic little poser.

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:22 PM

Never in modern times has a President been re-elected with Obama’s numbers. Never.

crosspatch on September 13, 2012 at 9:22 PM

I admit I don’t get all my news from Big Government. These guys are pretty much the Michael Savage of conservative news outlets.

newtopia on September 13, 2012 at 9:19 PM

Heh.

Dimwit you do realize they are quoting outside polling outlets right?

You’re a joke.What a waste. Thanks I’ll know not to bother to talk to you ….you dishonest pos.

CW on September 13, 2012 at 9:23 PM

ddrintn is here…the trolls have taken over..run for your lives!!!!

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:23 PM

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:19 PM

Getting cold under your rock?

How’s your canvassing for Obama going?

CW on September 13, 2012 at 9:21 PM

LOL. You ‘bots are hilarious when a bad poll comes out.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:24 PM

When I was younger, if my mom was late to pick me up, I always imagined that she must have gotten into a terrible car accident. I was always wrong, so ever since I assume, rather childishly, that if I expect something terrible to happen, it won’t.

andy85719 on September 13, 2012 at 9:19 PM

Dr. Marvin

Axe on September 13, 2012 at 9:24 PM

Will you clowns knock it off. People have made up their minds. Nothing will change. Give me a break. When’s the election?

RobertMN on September 13, 2012 at 9:24 PM

LOL. You ‘bots are hilarious when a bad poll comes out.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:24 PM

Once again, there are no Mittbots here. Just people trying to defeat Obama. The only bot here is bitter douches like you.

wargamer6 on September 13, 2012 at 9:25 PM

Allah what was the d/r/i breakdown in 2010

gerrym51 on September 13, 2012 at 9:25 PM

People love having 23 million or so unemployed. They love having mom, dad, and the grandparents home all day./

CW on September 13, 2012 at 9:19 PM

And living in the same damn house too.

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:25 PM

“And rarely have we had a President who is willfully 1) bankrupting the nation and 2) willfully making our nation more vulnerable by the day to threats from murderous enemies.”

And rarely have we had an incumbent who’s had such high likability numbers. And rarely have we had a challenger as inept and tentative as Romney. And rarely has the MSM been such an obvious arm of the incumbent’s re-election campaign.

It’s all perfectly set up for another Obama landslide.

gumbyandpokey on September 13, 2012 at 9:25 PM

Romney is battling the media spin now. That is how Obama won in 2008.

The DNC convention was a disgrace, but because the media spun the circus to a minimum and highlighted the more normal looking parts of the party… it looked good.

I am getting a little discouraged. Mitt made a fine statement yesterday. And if it was just the media and Dems who went after him that would not have stuck. But it was friendly fire that lends credibility to the media/leftist narritive distraction from the facts.

It is the Republicans who are beating Romney. It isn’t Obama or the media.

Scarbougho and Noonan and a few others who are not really part of the party have their own games they play and they hurt 10 times as much as the media/Obama complex.

Having conservatives attack Romney after the convention dampened his bounce… it was a very good speech but didn’t give the laundry list the pundants wanted.

When are REpublicans going to realize that anything negative they say will be amphlified beyond all recognition and they just need to do what Democrats do and circle the wagons.

But nope… Republicans are beating up on Romney and the numbers show it.

petunia on September 13, 2012 at 9:25 PM

Rrpjr, come on, everyone knows that Mitt is not McCain. McCain didn’t care about being elected president; he wanted to be NOMINATED for president. By the time of financial meltdown, all McCain cared about was losing in a dignified way.

By contrast, Romney, with all his material advantages and wonderful family, is not wasting six years of his life to roll over for Bam-Bam or the MSM. Romney is determined to be elected president, and he will be a good president.

You may wish to note that since Eisenhower, when the GOP nominates a governor (Reagan, Bush 43) or a vp (Nixon, Bush 41), they win. When the GOP nominates a sitting senator (Goldwater, Dole, McCain), they lose.

matthew8787 on September 13, 2012 at 9:25 PM

Wow, I love all the chest thumping barky lovers tonight…did Media Matters send out an emergency memo to get out there and praise their master?

ccrosby on September 13, 2012 at 9:26 PM

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:24 PM

Poor little sad man. Awww SP told you to eff off so you try to run other people down. She hurt your feelings.

You’re an embarrassment.

CW on September 13, 2012 at 9:26 PM

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:19 PM

This poster / poser is a troll. Ignore.

rebuzz on September 13, 2012 at 9:20 PM

You can’t ignore me, because really you suspect I’m right. That’s what makes you mad as hell.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:26 PM

did Media Matters send out an emergency memo to get out there and praise their master?

ccrosby on September 13, 2012 at 9:26 PM

D-Rintintin always complies.

CW on September 13, 2012 at 9:26 PM

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:24 PM

Poor little sad man. Awww SP told you to eff off so you try to run other people down. She hurt your feelings.

You’re an embarrassment.

CW on September 13, 2012 at 9:26 PM

Nah, the GOPe hurt my feelings even more by pushing an unelectable squish on us.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:27 PM

Repost: ddrintin and newtopia are not honest posters — they are democrat trolls / shills paid to post on this website. Fell free to ignore them. They are not seriously posters but shills for the democrats. It happens. They are desperate.

rebuzz on September 13, 2012 at 9:27 PM

LOL. You ‘bots are hilarious when a bad poll comes out.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:24 PM

And you are pretty funny when you start your lurking cult member upset because his heart throb opted for reality TV rather than a run for the nomination wich turned you into a sore loser cry baby routine too..

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:27 PM

You can’t ignore me, because really you suspect I’m right. That’s what makes you mad as hell.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:26 PM

No. You’re a freak. Go post at C4P.

wargamer6 on September 13, 2012 at 9:27 PM

I’ve gotten to the point now where I don’t even have to look at the comments. A glance at the handles in the lower lefthand corner of each post tells me exactly what each of these worthless trolls is going to say, over and over and over again.

Right Mover on September 13, 2012 at 9:04 PM

I play a game and start to read the comment and then try to guess what troll it is before I get to the handle.

I’m right about 85-90% of the time.

gophergirl on September 13, 2012 at 9:28 PM

Once again, there are no Mittbots here. Just people trying to defeat Obama. The only bot here is bitter douches like you.

wargamer6 on September 13, 2012 at 9:25 PM

Yeh I’d like to see anyone find a post of mine that comes close to the weirdly obsessive posts that the ddrintn’s and the IPalin types used to share. I’d love to see it. What a joke. ddrintn has nothing so he makes up shite.

CW on September 13, 2012 at 9:28 PM

Wow, I love all the chest thumping barky lovers tonight…did Media Matters send out an emergency memo to get out there and praise their master?

ccrosby on September 13, 2012 at 9:26 PM

I can’t stand Obama. He’s not going to be beaten by a squish, though. Sorry.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:28 PM

Repost: ddrintin and newtopia are not honest posters — they are democrat trolls / shills paid to post on this website. Fell free to ignore them. They are not seriously posters but shills for the democrats. It happens. They are desperate.

rebuzz on September 13, 2012 at 9:27 PM

I have been around hot air for awhile and once upon a time ddrintn was a regular human being…but he lost his mind. Sad really.

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:28 PM

Petunia, there is nothing to be discouraged about. The RINOs who played along yesterday morning (Noonan among others) have had their heads handed to them.

Obama and his MSM handmaidens are stunned to learned today that the American people are repudiating their disgraceful bias and distortion of reality.

matthew8787 on September 13, 2012 at 9:28 PM

Once again, there are no Mittbots here. Just people trying to defeat Obama. The only bot here is bitter douches like you.

I’m a mittbot. as i’ve said before i’ve voted for Mitt for senator,governor,republican nomination 08 and will be twice this year.

However it’s only this year while reading hot air that i’ve learned to carefully scrutinize polls.

most polls other than Rasmussen do seem to exagerate dems.

gerrym51 on September 13, 2012 at 9:29 PM

I can’t stand Obama. He’s not going to be beaten by a squish, though. Sorry.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:28 PM

yeah, too bad all the trucons sold out and decided to sit out the election.

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:29 PM

I have been around hot air for awhile and once upon a time ddrintn was a regular human being…but he lost his mind. Sad really.

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:28 PM

Once his idol said no, he went off the deep end.

wargamer6 on September 13, 2012 at 9:29 PM

ddrintn on September 13, 2012

Go adore SP’s picture you freak . You and that weird group are just plain creepy.

To think I used to defend you weirdo’s against the equally radical anti SP types.

CW on September 13, 2012 at 9:30 PM

Yeh I’d like to see anyone find a post of mine that comes close to the weirdly obsessive posts that the ddrintn’s and the IPalin types used to share. I’d love to see it. What a joke. ddrintn has nothing so he makes up shite.

CW on September 13, 2012 at 9:28 PM

Are you kidding? Every monosyllabic piece of crap you type is something about Palin or her supporters. When you’re not rah-rah ing for the good ol’ Red Team, of course. You’re totally ’round the bend.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:30 PM

You can’t ignore me, because really you suspect I’m right. That’s what makes you mad as hell.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:26 PM

Au contrair little toll you are a paid shill — your “analysis” is not serious — you are found out!!

(I’m not at all mad — I’ve exposed you — I’m content — you are irrelevant).

rebuzz on September 13, 2012 at 9:30 PM

I think what we’re seeing in swing states, now hard shifting towards Obama, is incredibly significant. In this election cycle, conservative voters are not energized to vote for Mitt, but are rather eager to vote against Obama. In fact, most polls right now reflect that roughly half of respondents who say they are voting for Mitt also say that their vote is a vote against Obama rather than for Mitt. As these polls continue to deteriorate for Mitt, conservative voters will lose heart and the gap will only widen in favor of the President.

This puts the Romney campaign in a very fragile position and this is why I expect the President to race out to a 10-15 point lead after the debates and cruise to victory. The debates are truly a last gasp for Romney, and I have little faith that he will suddenly be able articulate values he’s been unable to convey in the more than 5 years.

And Mittbots, you can’t blame conservatives when your guy can’t even appeal to Independents because they’ve come to discover the guy lacks conviction and an ideological core. Mitt’s had five years to get it right and even now he’s groping for a clear message on the most basic of issues.

newtopia on September 13, 2012 at 9:31 PM

I have been around hot air for awhile and once upon a time ddrintn was a regular human being…but he lost his mind. Sad really.

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:28 PM

Once his idol said no, he went off the deep end.

wargamer6 on September 13, 2012 at 9:29 PM

Come on. For the past 3 years I’ve said Romney’s going to be the nominee and is going to get his ass handed to him.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:31 PM

Just look at past elections and you will see that this thing is pretty much locked and loaded at this point.

gumbyandpokey on September 13, 2012 at 9:07 PM

Question: Dude, are you threatening us?
Answer: What a whiny, jelly spined little punk ass liberal would say.

msupertas on September 13, 2012 at 9:31 PM

Are you kidding? Every monosyllabic piece of crap you type is something about Palin or her supporters. When you’re not rah-rah ing for the good ol’ Red Team, of course. You’re totally ’round the bend.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:30 PM

Go watch this and be quiet. Adults are talking here.

wargamer6 on September 13, 2012 at 9:31 PM

I can’t stand Obama. He’s not going to be beaten by a squish, though. Sorry.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:28 PM

So is it tag team time at HA, I noticed that squidwardwithprions bails, ddrintn shows up… you still have gubmntandpoorme running around… when does the dancing douchebear show up and I’m still quietly wishing for cr666.

uncommon sense on September 13, 2012 at 9:31 PM

Petunia, there is nothing to be discouraged about. The RINOs who played along yesterday morning (Noonan among others) have had their heads handed to them.

Obama and his MSM handmaidens are stunned to learned today that the American people are repudiating their disgraceful bias and distortion of reality.

matthew8787 on September 13, 2012 at 9:28 PM

Peggy Noonan can kiss my butt..there was going on about how Obama is the president and Romney should not say anything…I can remember when her former boss Reagan pounded Carter about the mess in Iran. all the time. Hypocrite.

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:32 PM

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:31 PM

Paid shill for three years! You admit it!

rebuzz on September 13, 2012 at 9:32 PM

Au contrair little toll you are a paid shill — your “analysis” is not serious — you are found out!!

(I’m not at all mad — I’ve exposed you — I’m content — you are irrelevant).

rebuzz on September 13, 2012 at 9:30 PM

Oh, really? You have the smoking gun? Maybe a cash-stuffed envelope from the DNC or something? LOL You folks are really really funny.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:33 PM

Here’s a post I read tonight on The Right Scoop, where it was pointed out one of the people killed two days ago was a Navy Seal.

I liked it.

There are many of us here who aren’t fans of Romney and I had strong reservations about voting for him. I even thought about writing in my candidate’s (Newt Gingrich) name on my ballot, but I won’t do that. There are no words that can describe the indignation I have for this POS president and those barbaric subhumans.

When I cast my vote for Romney, I am going to do it thinking of the four embassy workers who were savagely killed, the troops who paid with their lives…and for the preservation of America.

The most dangerous threat to our country sits in the oval office. I am going to vote for Romney to get rid of that treasonous bastard disguised as an American president. Obama makes Jimmy Carter look like a patriot.

Yeah, I’m cut and pasting for you, ddrintn.

Marcus on September 13, 2012 at 9:33 PM

Are you kidding? Every monosyllabic piece of crap you type is something about Palin or her supporters. When you’re not rah-rah ing for the good ol’ Red Team, of course. You’re totally ’round the bend.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:30 PM

Talk about projection. Sarah Palin made the decision not to run and that means you have to hate everyone else..that is all you do…all your crap about squishes is just about that..the truth is Romney won because he ran. Some people did not even bother to try…so go sneer at them for a change..

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:34 PM

Just heard that Obama has outspent Romney 4-1 over the past two weeks. Where is that “shock and awe” money going?

Even on national cable networks, it’s all Obama ads and no Romney ads.

gumbyandpokey on September 13, 2012 at 9:34 PM

Go watch this and be quiet. Adults are talking here.

wargamer6 on September 13, 2012 at 9:31 PM

Really? All I see is a bunch of ‘bots going on like chimps at feeding time in the zoo over a bad poll for Mitt.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:34 PM

Marcus on September 13, 2012 at 9:33 PM

He doesn’t care. Palin uber Alles!

wargamer6 on September 13, 2012 at 9:34 PM

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:33 PM

Non-serious troll. Ignore.

rebuzz on September 13, 2012 at 9:35 PM

Insult me all you like. I remember in 2008, I was sure that the disgruntled PUMAs would keep Obama from winning. I literally had to take off two days after the election because I was so shocked. I will never be blindsided like that again.

Also, sometimes I say that the worse things are going to happen because in my mind, if I do that, the opposite will be true. It is a coping mechanism. When I was younger, if my mom was late to pick me up, I always imagined that she must have gotten into a terrible car accident. I was always wrong, so ever since I assume, rather childishly, that if I expect something terrible to happen, it won’t.

andy85719 on September 13, 2012 at 9:19 PM

Get. Professional. Help.

GrannyDee on September 13, 2012 at 9:35 PM

petunia on September 13, 2012 at 9:25 PM

I’m convinced there are plenty of Beltway Republicans (not conservatives) who don’t want Mitt to win.

Scarborough and Noonan are blowhard buffoons. They haven’t been on the team for a long time now.

And neither is Karl Rove.

Right Mover on September 13, 2012 at 9:36 PM

Just heard that Obama has outspent Romney 4-1 over the past two weeks. Where is that “shock and awe” money going?

Even on national cable networks, it’s all Obama ads and no Romney ads.

gumbyandpokey on September 13, 2012 at 9:34 PM

And when he is spent, the ads will start and Obooboo will have nothing left, just like his campaign now… it isn’t moving the needle, if you look through the MSM BS polls.

uncommon sense on September 13, 2012 at 9:36 PM

the truth is Romney won because he ran.

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:34 PM

Wooohooooo! Now THERE’S a mandate! Grassroots, baby!

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:36 PM

Come on. For the past 3 years I’ve said Romney’s going to be the nominee and is going to get his ass handed to him.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:31 PM

Yeah right and you are psychic…so if the problem is that he is a squish..then why didn’t we see some brave true conservative take a risk and at least try?

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:37 PM

Wooohooooo! Now THERE’S a mandate! Grassroots, baby!

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:36 PM

more than anyone can say about Palin.

wargamer6 on September 13, 2012 at 9:37 PM

it isn’t moving the needle, if you look through the MSM BS polls.

uncommon sense on September 13, 2012 at 9:36 PM

So, uh, how do you measure that needle if it’s not through polls? Threads on Hot Air?

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:38 PM

Okay am I missing something? But don’t most polls have a margin of error equivalent to these spreads? So if say, Obama is up by 4 and the margin of error is 4.5….
Can we really know when the margin is this close?

Deanna on September 13, 2012 at 9:38 PM

Wooohooooo! Now THERE’S a mandate! Grassroots, baby!

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:36 PM

more than anyone can say about Palin.

wargamer6 on September 13, 2012 at 9:37 PM

True enough. Doesn’t make Romney any less of a shit sandwich.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:39 PM

the truth is Romney won because he ran.

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:34 PM

Wooohooooo! Now THERE’S a mandate! Grassroots, baby!

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:36 PM

So answer my question little man..Ron Paul could run..you know the GOP did not want that, but he did it anyway..so why didn’t your heart throb give it a try? Chicken? Or was it the money?

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:39 PM

So, uh, how do you measure that needle if it’s not through polls? Threads on Hot Air?

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:38 PM

Holy crap, look at the brak outs and the sampling, of course they don’t tell you where they sampled either, but hey, the media isn’t in the tankl for the won, they are as fair and balanced as foxnews… right, right??? do a little more research, then we can talk.

uncommon sense on September 13, 2012 at 9:40 PM


Team Romney’s now counting on the debates to be their launching pad, but, er, have the debates ever actually decided an election?

Ftw!

Wouldn’t it be great if Team Romney had a competent turn-around manager that they could call on or something?

casuist on September 13, 2012 at 9:40 PM

Yeah right and you are psychic…so if the problem is that he is a squish..then why didn’t we see some brave true conservative take a risk and at least try?

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:37 PM

Dunno. I couldn’t force anyone to get into the race, or stay out for that matter.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:40 PM

True enough. Doesn’t make Romney any less of a shit sandwich.

ddrintn on September 13, 2012 at 9:39 PM

Millions of people voted for Romney…so it is not just him you are disrepecting you bitter sad little man.

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 9:41 PM


True enough. Doesn’t make Romney any less of a shit sandwich.

Q. What’s the difference between Romney and a sh** sandwich?
A. The bread.

casuist on September 13, 2012 at 9:42 PM

Hi. My name is ddrintin. I’m a mealy mouthed loser who’s hero chose not to run in 2012, so I’ve decided to make everyone’s life on HotAir miserable. I really hate Romney, but even if he wasn’t the nominee, I’d still attack whoever it was.

You see, I don’t have much of a life. Sure I’ve got every Palin speech on TiVo and have 50 love dolls on standby, but I’d rather post on here 24/7. You see, my life revolves around Cuda! If she ever ran as a Democrat, I’d follow her in a heartbeat!

Now, if you’ll excuse me, I have to visit one of my love dolls. Maybe it’ll let me be than man tonight! I can only hope! Bye!

wargamer6 on September 13, 2012 at 9:42 PM

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