WSJ/NBC poll: Obama now leads by five in Virginia and Florida, by seven in Ohio

posted at 8:03 pm on September 13, 2012 by Allahpundit

I know your first thought is always of the samples, so here you go: I’m listing the WSJ/NBC poll partisan split first and then the 2008 exit poll split for each state for comparison. And yes, this is likely voters:

Virginia: 31D/26R/43I (39/33/27)

Ohio: 38D/28R/32I (39/31/30)

Florida: 35D/33R/30I (37/34/29)

The Democratic turnout advantage in this model would be only a point less in Virginia and Florida than it was at the apex of Hopenchange in 2008, and in Ohio it would actually be two points greater. That’s not happening in November, but O’s lead in each state is wide enough here that I think he probably is ahead — narrowly. According to RCP’s averages, in fact, he’s up by just 1.3 points in Florida and 0.4 points in Virginia, and those numbers incorporate his gaudy leads in this WSJ/NBC poll. Even more reason not to panic: This poll was conducted from Sept. 9-11, when Obama still had a bit of a convention bounce. That bounce now appears to be gone; Ramussen’s daily tracker actually has Romney back in the lead today nationally.

The real worry for Romney is Ohio, where he’s now down 4.2 points in the RCP average and which is virtually must-win. Unemployment’s down to 7.2 percent there and the auto bailout is popular; Ohio’s also a sharp contrast with Wisconsin insofar as Kasich’s proposed collective-bargaining reforms for public-employee unions went down in flames at the polls. Not going to be easy for Romney. And per WSJ/NBC, there aren’t many undecideds left in swing states:

What’s particularly striking about these polls, Miringoff observes, is how most voters in these battleground states have already made up their minds, with just 5 to 6 percent saying they’re undecided, and with more than 80 percent signaling that they strongly support their candidate.

“Those who are thinking of voting have pretty much picked sides,” he says.

In Florida and Virginia, Obama and Romney are essentially tied among likely voters on the question of which candidate would do a better job handling the economy, although Obama has a four-point advantage on this question in Ohio.

But when it comes to handling foreign policy, the incumbent Democratic president enjoys a double-digit lead over his Republican challenger.

Again, this poll was conducted from Sunday through Tuesday, the day of the embassy attacks in Cairo and Benghazi. Let’s see how that foreign-policy question looks next week. On the other hand, because eeyore’s gotta be eeyore, note that Fox News’s national poll released last night is also showing a national lead for Obama of five points, 48/43. That poll was conducted over the same period as WSJ/NBC’s, so there’s bounciness built in there too, and the partisan split — 42D vs. 36R — strikes me as a bit more Democratic than we’ll see on election day. But again, the takeaway here is that O probably is ahead by a point or two. Nothing fatal. But Mitt needs a little momentum.

Click the image below for Pat Caddell’s thoughts on the worst campaign evah. Exit question: Team Romney’s now counting on the debates to be their launching pad, but, er, have the debates ever actually decided an election? Says John Sides, “Indeed, scholars who have looked most carefully at the data have found that, when it comes to shifting enough votes to decide the outcome of the election, presidential debates have rarely, if ever, mattered.”


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s t u p i d …!!!

KOOLAID2 on September 13, 2012 at 8:05 PM

OT:

Just breaking on Drudge:

STATE DEPT. MAY HAVE KNOWN OF AN ATTACK 48 HOURS IN ADVANCE

Rixon on September 13, 2012 at 8:05 PM

so much heartache tonight.

sesquipedalian on September 13, 2012 at 8:05 PM

But when it comes to handling foreign policy, the incumbent Democratic president enjoys a double-digit lead over his Republican challenger.

Not anymore.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/politics/revealed-inside-story-of-us-envoys-assassination-8135797.html

RedNewEnglander on September 13, 2012 at 8:05 PM

Back to depression mode. :(

ThePrez on September 13, 2012 at 8:05 PM

The debates certainly mattered in 1980.

TheLastBrainLeft on September 13, 2012 at 8:06 PM

…HERE COMES gutmeandpokeme with his pole analysis! 5…4…3…2…

KOOLAID2 on September 13, 2012 at 8:06 PM

Because we love ourselves some unemployment, raging national debt , and food stamps. Awesome job Obama!

CW on September 13, 2012 at 8:06 PM

Wait until people find out about this

the US State Department had credible information 48 hours before mobs charged the consulate in Benghazi, and the embassy in Cairo, that American missions may be targeted, but no warnings were given for diplomats to go on high alert and “lockdown”,

faraway on September 13, 2012 at 8:07 PM

These polls alse were taken before it was reported that the WH had been warned about potential attacks, but did nothing. I think that news will have some effect.

LASue on September 13, 2012 at 8:07 PM

Gas is now over $4 here in Boston.

kevinkristy on September 13, 2012 at 8:07 PM

I’m tired of the Bammy Boosters

there’s just about possibly and maybe

zero chance he wins this election.

Slade73 on September 13, 2012 at 8:07 PM

so much heartache tonight.

sesquipedalian on September 13, 2012 at 8:05 PM

ES you and Obama suck .

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/politics/revealed-inside-story-of-us-envoys-assassination-8135797.html

RedNewEnglander on September 13, 2012 at 8:05 PM

CW on September 13, 2012 at 8:07 PM

To add: Obama will win Ohio, Florida and Virginia. Maybe by only a couple hundred votes each, but he will win these three states.

TheLastBrainLeft on September 13, 2012 at 8:07 PM

All of these polls are crap! One day he’s up, the next he’s down. It’s all bunk! How about we quit focusing our attention on this crap and start focusing on sh!t that really matters!

glennbo on September 13, 2012 at 8:07 PM

If you know anybody in Virginia, Florida or Ohio, now would be a good time to give them a call to remind them of the many reasons to vote for Romney/Ryan.

wren on September 13, 2012 at 8:08 PM

Gas is now over $4 here in Boston.

kevinkristy on September 13, 2012 at 8:07 PM

Awesome. I almost forgot.

Obama is doing so well for this country. Four more years. Four more years.

CW on September 13, 2012 at 8:08 PM

Idiots in Ohio think the auto bailout was a great idea – yet auto manufacturing and parts-related jobs are on the decline in that state. Kasich needs to get these dolts to understand that the only reason their unemployment levels are as low as they are – has nothing to do with Obamanomics.

Hill60 on September 13, 2012 at 8:08 PM

BOR is an idiot and is getting a beatdown by Keith Ellison

faraway on September 13, 2012 at 8:08 PM

so much heartache butthurt tonight.

sesquipedalian on September 13, 2012 at 8:05 PM

…just talk to yourself…we’re not interested

KOOLAID2 on September 13, 2012 at 8:08 PM

But when it comes to handling foreign policy, the incumbent Democratic president enjoys a double-digit lead over his Republican challenger.

See Drudge for further details. Why must we get our news from the U.K.?

JPeterman on September 13, 2012 at 8:09 PM

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sure he does.

Lanceman on September 13, 2012 at 8:09 PM

CW on September 13, 2012 at 8:07 PM

the stench of desperation is strong tonight as well.

sesquipedalian on September 13, 2012 at 8:10 PM

…just talk to yourself…we’re not interested

KOOLAID2 on September 13, 2012 at 8:08 PM

Now now. We don’t talk to sesquipedouchebag like that…

Lanceman on September 13, 2012 at 8:10 PM

so much heartache tonight.

sesquipedalian on September 13, 2012 at 8:05 PM

Yes, at least in the Clinton households. See Drudge.

Hillary will have to take the fall.

Wethal on September 13, 2012 at 8:10 PM

The debates won’t help Romney. The MSM will do their best to drag Obama to the finish line as the winner (see yesterday as an example).

Romney needs to use the Death Star. Hit hit hit and then hit some more.

El_Terrible on September 13, 2012 at 8:10 PM

…are the pollsters talking amongst themselves like the newspaper reporters did before Romney’s press conference yesterday?

KOOLAID2 on September 13, 2012 at 8:11 PM

Hillary will have to take the fall.

Wethal on September 13, 2012 at 8:10 PM

Oh crap! I didn’t think of that. But how can he throw HRC under the bus?

Lanceman on September 13, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Wait until people find out about this

the US State Department had credible information 48 hours before mobs charged the consulate in Benghazi, and the embassy in Cairo, that American missions may be targeted, but no warnings were given for diplomats to go on high alert and “lockdown”,

faraway on September 13, 2012 at 8:07 PMWait until people find out about this

the US State Department had credible information 48 hours before mobs charged the consulate in Benghazi, and the embassy in Cairo, that American missions may be targeted, but no warnings were given for diplomats to go on high alert and “lockdown”,

faraway on September 13, 2012 at 8:07 PM

Which probably explains why the Cairo Embassy had posted the “apology” long before the protests started. They knew what was coming – and thought they could appease the mob with their “we condemn all actions that hurt the feelings of the mamby-pamby muslims” crap.

Hill60 on September 13, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Ohioans love the auto bailout where net job loss for auto manuf sector is set at 6400 since Obama took over??? I call BS on this poll, as well.

hillsoftx on September 13, 2012 at 8:12 PM

gumbypoked does not have the mental capacity or math know how to give ant analysis.

VA
NBC/WSJ/Marist 9/9 – 9/11 996 LV MOE 3.1
Barry 49 Romney 44 Obama +5
Gravis Marketing 9/8 – 9/9 2238 LV MOE 2.2
Barry 44 Romney 49 Romney +5

One of the 2 is wrong. The one that is more likely to be wrong is the one with smaller sample size and larger MOE.

The NBC/Marist Poll in OH has a +10 Dem overweight
De 38 R 28 I 32
Rasmussen has Barry and Romney in a statistical tie

FL
NBC/WSJ/Marist 9/9 – 9/11 980 LV MOE 3.1
Barry 49 Romney 44 Obama +5

AIF/McLaughlin 9/9 – 9/10 600 LV 4.0
Barry 47 Romney 50 Romney +3

Gravis Marketing 9/2 – 9/2 1288 LV MOE 2.7
Barry 47 Romney 48 Romney +1

No clear trend in FL, but hardly a disaster for Romney.

The race has not been won or lost by either Barry or Romney, but if anyone wants to be an eeyore, it is still a free country.

bayview on September 13, 2012 at 8:12 PM

I don’t think the debates will matter much, either. Hate to say it, but I think Romney needs to go the nontraditional route and do late night TV, or daytime talkers, between now and election day…I don’t know that he’s reaching the people he needs at this point.

Let’s hope this is just convention bounce, though. Ras had promising tracking numbers today, anyway, so that’s something.

changer1701 on September 13, 2012 at 8:12 PM

I’m not buying it as far as Virginia is concerned. From where I am on the ground in the bluest part of the state there is no real Obama love. There are Romney yard signs but Obama supporters have limited themselves to those pathetic 2012 things with the microscopic O logo.

Make no mistake, Virginia is up for grabs but there is no way the rat-eared bastard is up by five. Especially after the events of this week and the beginning of sequistration that is going to kill DoD contractors in NoVa.

Happy Nomad on September 13, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Romney’s team should not be waiting for the debates. They should have foreign policy ads on the air immediately blasting Obama. The debates should continue momentum, not create it.

SAZMD on September 13, 2012 at 8:12 PM

My doctor wanted me to monitor my BP to assess how my meds were working. She told me to use a commercial machine. I asked her how to use them since there are many types and they could have different results. She gave me my current numbers and said find a machine whose results are close and stay with that machine. If there’s a spike up or down you’ll see it no matter the actual numbers. All she cared about was consistency. The same with polls. Pick one that was close in 04.08,& 10 and stay with that poll. The numbers may be off a bit but the trends will be accurate.

xkaydet65 on September 13, 2012 at 8:13 PM

One word.

Wisconsin.

Think about it.

DLEW on September 13, 2012 at 8:13 PM

And the choice by the Republicans to pick the least electable of their candidates appears to be coming home.

The Democrats have been preparing since 2010 to run against Romney. It is why they launched the occupy movement.

Perhaps choosing someone who couldn’t be stereotyped as rich Uncle Moneybags might have been a better choice?

Romney may well still pull it out – it is early – but if Romney wins, any of the others in the primaries could have also…

18-1 on September 13, 2012 at 8:13 PM

Yikes..Pat Caddell’s a straight forward guy and calls it like he see’s it…he knows his $hit and doesn’t let partisanship get in the way of his opinion..

I find this a bit disconcerting….

BigWyo on September 13, 2012 at 8:13 PM

convention – check

fake BS bounce – check

MSM – the Obama Bounce is in my pants (wait!) I mean the American people love them some Obama.

Slade73 on September 13, 2012 at 8:13 PM

Which probably explains why the Cairo Embassy had posted the “apology” long before the protests started. They knew what was coming – and thought they could appease the mob with their “we condemn all actions that hurt the feelings of the mamby-pamby muslims” crap.

Hill60 on September 13, 2012 at 8:12 PM

And we know how appeasing the enemy works out. It is a sign of weakness.

Happy Nomad on September 13, 2012 at 8:14 PM

so much heartache tonight.

sesquipedalian on September 13, 2012 at 8:05 PM

I know right! Obama cant break 50% anywhere.

Spliff Menendez on September 13, 2012 at 8:14 PM

Indeed, scholars who have looked most carefully at the data have found that, when it comes to shifting enough votes to decide the outcome of the election, presidential debates have rarely, if ever, mattered.”

They mattered in the Reagan campaign and thanks to Gore stalking Bush like a crazy person on the stage..I would say they might have mattered in that campaign too.

But I also think that Romney is counting on the barrage of ads they are just starting to run and on the settling of the polls as the convention bounce wears off and people remember what a crappy president Obama is.

The economy sucks and now the whole foreign affairs thing is up in the air too.

I guess time will tell…but one thing is for sure, the media is doing everything they can to get Obama reelected..and if they manage it we will all pay.

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 8:14 PM

FBI warns of attacks inside America

Don’t forget to read the comments. Yeah, Obama’s a lock.

/A lock, I tells ya!

Key West Reader on September 13, 2012 at 8:14 PM

Maybe all the talk that Ohio is a lost cause isn’t wrong at all. And with Ohio lost, the election will be called early.

I still would like to know where all the Romney money is going. Already seen a bunch of Obama ads in WI tonight and zero Romney spots, even though the MI money supposedly came here. What a lame campaign Mitt is running.

gumbyandpokey on September 13, 2012 at 8:14 PM

Show of hands; who’s surprised Allahpundit does the eeyore post? How much you want to bet the QOTD post will be another anti-Romney one too?

wargamer6 on September 13, 2012 at 8:14 PM

sesquipedalian is a polysyllabic word for blow-hard,

bayview on September 13, 2012 at 8:14 PM

Obama is a consummate loser but the people that elected him and continue to support him are mind numbingly stupid.

rplat on September 13, 2012 at 8:15 PM

I’m giving these poll numbers 1-2 weeks to collapse. I fully expect they will. Especially with Mitt now taking a harder line.

If not, it’s time for a course change, Mitt. No ore Mr. Nice Guy. Go for the throat.

petefrt on September 13, 2012 at 8:15 PM

On polls from the American Spectator.

An excerpt:

Do not let these polls fool you. In 1980 similar polls showed Jimmy Carter leading the Old Cowboy almost to the very end. Carter was ahead of Governor Ronald Reagan by 4 points in late September, by 8 points in October, and the Gallup polls had him ahead of Reagan by 6 points in last days of the election. Reagan won by 9 points, sweeping 44 states. In 1988 Governor Dukakis at one point led Vice President George H. W. Bush by 17 points. He lost by almost 8 points.

The polls are BS. All of them.

Charlemagne on September 13, 2012 at 8:15 PM

bayview on September 13, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Florida is lost to obama. I see miniscule support here in Whorelando. Even downtown.

Lanceman on September 13, 2012 at 8:16 PM

uhhhhhhhhhm

more Obama please. I can’t get enough Obama

Slade73 on September 13, 2012 at 8:16 PM

Exit question: Team Romney’s now counting on the debates to be their launching pad, but, er, have the debates ever actually decided an election?

Kerry came back from 6 pts down in RCP average in mid-Sept, to lose by 2, largely as a result of the debates. A 4-pt swing for Romney would put him ahead.

Jon0815 on September 13, 2012 at 8:16 PM

STATE DEPT. MAY HAVE KNOWN OF AN ATTACK 48 HOURS IN ADVANCE

Rixon on September 13, 2012 at 8:05 PM

O_O

Marines without ammunition, ambassador hanging out at a consulate, foreign guards, POSGRP not being around for intel briefings….nail that coffin shut, he’s done.

Bishop on September 13, 2012 at 8:16 PM

Maybe all the talk that Ohio is a lost cause isn’t wrong at all. And with Ohio lost, the election will be called early.

I still would like to know where all the Romney money is going. Already seen a bunch of Obama ads in WI tonight and zero Romney spots, even though the MI money supposedly came here. What a lame campaign Mitt is running.

gumbyandpokey on September 13, 2012 at 8:14 PM

Oh shut up…Obama has spent 5 trillion dollars of tax payer money and you want to know where Romney’s money is going..my God what a craven little butt kisser you are.

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 8:16 PM

so much heartache tonight.

sesquipedalian on September 13, 2012 at 8:05 PM

You over at the Chris Steven’s family home tonight?

hillsoftx on September 13, 2012 at 8:16 PM

Chillax.
Vote and get your friends to vote.
And for God sakes, if you have friends in Ohio… make sure they vote.
Romney wins this thing beyond the margin of cheating.
Chillllax already.

Sugar Land on September 13, 2012 at 8:17 PM

Okay whatever you say WSJ/NBC. I don’t believe you but whatever.

gophergirl on September 13, 2012 at 8:17 PM

Up in the polls, down in the polls. Voting may be the only way to decide this.

de rigueur on September 13, 2012 at 8:17 PM

The American people are broke, despairing, and now they do not feel safe. Barack and his lapdogs were planning on having three “foreign policy” debates, where barack would say “Osama is dead and GM is alive” over and over, and the lapdogs would point out Romney’s foreign policy inexperience. That ain’t gonna happen now. WHAT will they talk about at the debates? After the events of the past 48 hours, barack is an absolute failure in every way. He cannot spike the osama football anymore, he doesn’t want to talk about the economy, unemployment, he has no plans for a second term. Romney doesn’t have to turn in a “great” debate performance, he just has to tell the truth. If the American people choose failure, they choose failure, but after the debates, at least they’ll be a little closer to knowing that that is what they’re choosing.

Rational Thought on September 13, 2012 at 8:17 PM

the stench of desperation is strong tonight as well.

sesquipedalian on September 13, 2012 at 8:10 PM

…you might wash your crotch once in a while or use mouthwash…suggest you check several orifices for the stench!

KOOLAID2 on September 13, 2012 at 8:17 PM

I don’t think the debates will matter much, either. Hate to say it, but I think Romney needs to go the nontraditional route and do late night TV, or daytime talkers, between now and election day… I don’t know that he’s reaching the people he needs at this point.

Let’s hope this is just convention bounce, though. Ras had promising tracking numbers today, anyway, so that’s something.

changer1701 on September 13, 2012 at 8:12 PM

I know that post was hard for you after spending the past months taking a dump on anyone who dared offered advice to his Mittness.

Spliff Menendez on September 13, 2012 at 8:17 PM

Please, the only polls that really start to matter are the ones from one week to two weeks out, when the pollsters have the opportunity to shore up their cred for the next elections. Right now, all of them including Ras, are on auto-pilot somewhat, but in those two weeks before the election, they bring in their best people and scrutinize the hell out of every single detail. Also, and just as important, the people polled at that time are far more likely to give truthful responses to pollsters, whereas right now there’s a lot of tooling around with them.

The internal polls, however, that each camp has right now are done in the careful way and I fully suspect, based on Obama’s actions — like going to Nevada after the embassy/consulate attacks instead of staying in DC and being presidential, and turning down the Netanyahu meeting for an appearance on Letterman, etc., tells me more than any of these polls right now do.

TXUS on September 13, 2012 at 8:17 PM

“Yikes..Pat Caddell’s a straight forward guy and calls it like he see’s it…he knows his $hit and doesn’t let partisanship get in the way of his opinion..

I find this a bit disconcerting….”

Pat Caddell is probably the best pundit out there. He was relentless in his criticism of Gore and Kerry and will give Republicans and Democrats hell equally. If he says Romney is running the worst campaign he’s ever seen (and he’s seen some bad ones), it’s gospel.

gumbyandpokey on September 13, 2012 at 8:17 PM

the stench of desperation is strong tonight as well.

sesquipedalian on September 13, 2012 at 8:10 PM

Is that all you have for such a story of incompetence? Really?

You willfully play the useful idiot . How embarrassing.

CW on September 13, 2012 at 8:18 PM

We didn’t lose track of our Ambassador for 8 hours.

Obama was working out what to say. That’s when they hatched the movie scheme.

faraway on September 13, 2012 at 8:18 PM

Obama is a consummate loser but the people that elected him and continue to support him are mind numbingly stupid.

rplat on September 13, 2012 at 8:15 PM

This is true.

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 8:18 PM

NBC/WSJ/Marist 9/9 – 9/11 996 LV MOE 3.1
Barry 49 Romney 44 Obama +5
Gravis Marketing 9/8 – 9/9 2238 LV MOE 2.2
Barry 44 Romney 49 Romney +5

So…how do we still allow polling forms to push margin of error numbers that are clearly wrong like this?

Baring something significantly different between the two polls, the most they should differ is 5.3 points….not ten.

18-1 on September 13, 2012 at 8:18 PM

Beautiful picture on drudge

Thanks Matt

faraway on September 13, 2012 at 8:19 PM

the stench of desperation is strong tonight as well.

sesquipedalian on September 13, 2012 at 8:10 PM

It is not over yet. But whatever happens, I will never support or respect Obama.

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 8:19 PM

Up in the polls, down in the polls. Voting may be the only way to decide this.

de rigueur on September 13, 2012 at 8:17 PM

…don’t mention that to gutmeandpokeme !…he’s having too much fun going up and down on the pole!

KOOLAID2 on September 13, 2012 at 8:19 PM

Ohio is impossible for Romney. Everyone, let’s be real. If the country was stupid enough to elect Obama, what makes you think they got any smarter in 4 years?

andy85719 on September 13, 2012 at 8:19 PM

Remember back in 2000 when Newsweek had on its cover “Gore by 10!” not long after the convention? Bush and Laura went onto Oprah and the average voter got to see them as people. I’m thinking this is the sort of tack that Mitt needs to take.

Physics Geek on September 13, 2012 at 8:19 PM

Pat Caddell is probably the best pundit out there. He was relentless in his criticism of Gore and Kerry and will give Republicans and Democrats hell equally. If he says Romney is running the worst campaign he’s ever seen (and he’s seen some bad ones), it’s gospel.

gumbyandpokey on September 13, 2012 at 8:17 PM

Everyone point and laugh at this loser.

wargamer6 on September 13, 2012 at 8:19 PM

I know right! Obama cant break 50% anywhere.

Spliff Menendez on September 13, 2012 at 8:14 PM

no republican has ever been elected without winning ohio.

sesquipedalian on September 13, 2012 at 8:19 PM

Obama is not ahead.

Slade73 on September 13, 2012 at 8:20 PM

Key West Reader on September 13, 2012 at 8:14 PM

Just thinking about you earlier…glad to see you on here…and get Romney a win in FL, wont ya!

hillsoftx on September 13, 2012 at 8:20 PM

But whatever happens, I will never support or respect Obama.

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 8:19 PM

never say never!

sesquipedalian on September 13, 2012 at 8:20 PM

sesquipedalian on September 13, 2012 at 8:19 PM

Wow you’re so smart.

wargamer6 on September 13, 2012 at 8:20 PM

The NBC polls are push polls given the absurd partisan composition. Any dispassionate analysis would indicate that Romney is slightly behind in Ohio, tied in Virginia, and slightly ahead in Florida.

It is past time for the Super Pacs to pick up their game and EXPAND the playing field to MI, PA, IA, and NM. DRAIN OBAMA DRY, he doesn’t have the money to keep up.

Make Obama shoot his wad now. We need more Sheldon Adelsons promptly. We can crush Obama if people with real wealth would write some checks.

matthew8787 on September 13, 2012 at 8:20 PM

Beautiful picture on drudge

Thanks Matt

faraway on September 13, 2012 at 8:19 PM

Imagine how the media would react to that if it were Bush.

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 8:21 PM

“The internal polls, however, that each camp has right now are done in the careful way and I fully suspect, based on Obama’s actions — like going to Nevada after the embassy/consulate attacks instead of staying in DC and being presidential, and turning down the Netanyahu meeting for an appearance on Letterman, etc., tells me more than any of these polls right now do.”

Where should Obama be campaigning? He’s winning handily, so he’s going where his leads are the most narrow.

And why not go to NV? He’s playing smart politics. He knows the MSM has his back and he can shore up a purple state. Looks smart to me.

gumbyandpokey on September 13, 2012 at 8:21 PM

But whatever happens, I will never support or respect Obama.

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 8:19 PM

Amen to that.

gophergirl on September 13, 2012 at 8:21 PM

sesquipedalian on September 13, 2012 at 8:20 PM

He won’t. He’s got a brain, unlike you. You’ve got your head so far up Obama’s ass.

wargamer6 on September 13, 2012 at 8:21 PM

no republican has ever been elected without winning ohio.

sesquipedalian on September 13, 2012 at 8:19 PM

NO candidate has ever sucked as bad as Blightbringer….

hillsoftx on September 13, 2012 at 8:21 PM

no republican has ever been elected without winning ohio.

sesquipedalian on September 13, 2012 at 8:19 PM

no democrat has quite mastered the Saxophone rape genre

Slade73 on September 13, 2012 at 8:21 PM

“The NBC polls are push polls given the absurd partisan composition. Any dispassionate analysis would indicate that Romney is slightly behind in Ohio, tied in Virginia, and slightly ahead in Florida.”

What’s wrong with the Florida sample?

gumbyandpokey on September 13, 2012 at 8:21 PM

gumbyandpokey on September 13, 2012 at 8:21 PM

Do you think you’re debating with anyone here? We all despise you. There’s no give and take. You’re trolling. Go post on Kos or DU, where losers like you belong.

wargamer6 on September 13, 2012 at 8:21 PM

I’m giving these poll numbers 1-2 weeks to collapse. I fully expect they will. Especially with Mitt now taking a harder line.

If not, it’s time for a course change, Mitt. No ore Mr. Nice Guy. Go for the throat.

petefrt on September 13, 2012 at 8:15 PM

If the polls don’t swing back hard his way, I hope Romney does this. He doesn’t have the personality to be an angry, foaming-at-the-mouth partisan, but I hope he throws caution to the wind and does what Reagan did — go over and around the media straight to the American people. I’d really like to see a series of ads where he’s sitting at a presidential desk, flags behind him, Oval Office-ish, looking into the camera, telling it like it is, like it really, really is. It’s time for some Real Talk. Go for it, Mitt.

Rational Thought on September 13, 2012 at 8:22 PM

never say never!

sesquipedalian on September 13, 2012 at 8:20 PM

never

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 8:22 PM

Like Rush said today – the entire media, Hollywood, entertainment all pushing barky from behind and he can’t pull away from Mittens.

If obama were white, he’d be down by 15 points.

People are gonna have a come-to-Jesus moment in the booth.

Or maybe a come-to-Moroni moment.

Either way.

Lanceman on September 13, 2012 at 8:22 PM

Ohioans love the auto bailout where net job loss for auto manuf sector is set at 6400 since Obama took over??? I call BS on this poll, as well.

hillsoftx on September 13, 2012 at 8:12 PM

I bet Ohioans have no idea of the job loss numbers, or else all they’ve heard is the Obama/MSM lies about how the losses would have been catastrophic and the entire U.S. auto industry would have immediately evaporated into thin air if Obama had not poured tens of billions of taxpayer dollars into GM and Chrysler.

The only reason this race is even close is because of the aggressive campaign of disinformation waged by the Obama propaganda machine known as the MSM.

AZCoyote on September 13, 2012 at 8:23 PM

BOR is now getting a beatdown from Cornell West.

faraway on September 13, 2012 at 8:23 PM

“Indeed, scholars who have looked most carefully at the data have found that, when it comes to shifting enough votes to decide the outcome of the election, presidential debates have rarely, if ever, mattered.”

Well, there they go again.

bobcalco on September 13, 2012 at 8:23 PM

All I can say is come November 6, people with IQs > 100 better turn out in much greater numbers than those with IQs < 100.

VorDaj on September 13, 2012 at 8:23 PM

Posted this on another thread, but it’s probably more appropriate here.

The polls are pretty accurate. Just get over it. It is what it is. We get this disputing polls stuff before virtually every election, and in the end the polls turn out to be quite accurate. The RCP average was nearly dead on the last 2 presidential election cycles (within 1 point). Even on the Walker recall, the RCP Average was within .1%.

Every other poll included in the RCP Average has Obama ahead. Rasmussen has Romney 1 ahead. I go with the full RCP average, Obama up 3.3% currently, because it’s proven itself to be highly accurate and helps flatten out outliers.

I remember people refusing to believe the polls when they showed O’Donnell was going to get crushed by about 17 points. We were treated with endless posts about how the polls were wrong. O’Donnell lost by 17 points. Remember 2008? The polls showed Obama was going to win by around 7 or 8 points and we had countless posts here claiming the polls were wrong? Yeah, Obama won by 7.3%. The list goes on and on. The polls are fairly accurate, especially if you use the RCP average to flatten out the outliers.

gumbyandpokey on September 13, 2012 at 8:23 PM

Most accurate polls.

http://blog.chron.com/txpotomac/2008/11/the-list-which-presidential-polls-were-most-accurate/

Marist 18th…awesome stuff.

DLEW on September 13, 2012 at 8:24 PM

The raw data says Obama’s up +5 in VA and FL. You can only knock 1 off VA to get the affiliation normalized, which makes +4. But you’d need to add 1 to FL if you are going to play by your own rules, which makes +6. Greater R turnout this year than the year of ♪♫ O-BAM-A ♪♫ eats into those numbers, and there’s a six point swing in the margin of error.

There’s nothing to cry over at the moment, not in the polls.

My standing offer to lament 50% approval for ♪♫ O-BAM-A ♪♫ and what it means to the civilization still stands, but Romney’s doing fine, so no sneaky jumping out of any windows tonight.

Axe on September 13, 2012 at 8:24 PM

gumbyandpokey on September 13, 2012 at 8:21 PM

Do you think you’re debating with anyone here? We all despise you. There’s no give and take. You’re trolling. Go post on Kos or DU, where losers like you belong.

wargamer6 on September 13, 2012 at 8:21 PM

This.

FO Gumby.

CW on September 13, 2012 at 8:24 PM

FBI warns of attacks inside America

Don’t forget to read the comments. Yeah, Obama’s a lock.

/A lock, I tells ya!

Key West Reader on September 13, 2012 at 8:14 PM

*smooch*… (then ducks and runs!)

KOOLAID2 on September 13, 2012 at 8:24 PM

I

f the polls don’t swing back hard his way, I hope Romney does this. He doesn’t have the personality to be an angry, foaming-at-the-mouth partisan, but I hope he throws caution to the wind and does what Reagan did — go over and around the media straight to the American people. I’d really like to see a series of ads where he’s sitting at a presidential desk, flags behind him, Oval Office-ish, looking into the camera, telling it like it is, like it really, really is. It’s time for some Real Talk. Go for it, Mitt.

Rational Thought on September 13, 2012 at 8:22 PM

I think he made the statement about the feckless ridiculous and shameful memo from the Obama administration state department for this reason…the media can scream all they want, but he is not going to just lay down for them.

Terrye on September 13, 2012 at 8:24 PM

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