WSJ/NBC poll: Obama now leads by five in Virginia and Florida, by seven in Ohio

posted at 8:03 pm on September 13, 2012 by Allahpundit

I know your first thought is always of the samples, so here you go: I’m listing the WSJ/NBC poll partisan split first and then the 2008 exit poll split for each state for comparison. And yes, this is likely voters:

Virginia: 31D/26R/43I (39/33/27)

Ohio: 38D/28R/32I (39/31/30)

Florida: 35D/33R/30I (37/34/29)

The Democratic turnout advantage in this model would be only a point less in Virginia and Florida than it was at the apex of Hopenchange in 2008, and in Ohio it would actually be two points greater. That’s not happening in November, but O’s lead in each state is wide enough here that I think he probably is ahead — narrowly. According to RCP’s averages, in fact, he’s up by just 1.3 points in Florida and 0.4 points in Virginia, and those numbers incorporate his gaudy leads in this WSJ/NBC poll. Even more reason not to panic: This poll was conducted from Sept. 9-11, when Obama still had a bit of a convention bounce. That bounce now appears to be gone; Ramussen’s daily tracker actually has Romney back in the lead today nationally.

The real worry for Romney is Ohio, where he’s now down 4.2 points in the RCP average and which is virtually must-win. Unemployment’s down to 7.2 percent there and the auto bailout is popular; Ohio’s also a sharp contrast with Wisconsin insofar as Kasich’s proposed collective-bargaining reforms for public-employee unions went down in flames at the polls. Not going to be easy for Romney. And per WSJ/NBC, there aren’t many undecideds left in swing states:

What’s particularly striking about these polls, Miringoff observes, is how most voters in these battleground states have already made up their minds, with just 5 to 6 percent saying they’re undecided, and with more than 80 percent signaling that they strongly support their candidate.

“Those who are thinking of voting have pretty much picked sides,” he says.

In Florida and Virginia, Obama and Romney are essentially tied among likely voters on the question of which candidate would do a better job handling the economy, although Obama has a four-point advantage on this question in Ohio.

But when it comes to handling foreign policy, the incumbent Democratic president enjoys a double-digit lead over his Republican challenger.

Again, this poll was conducted from Sunday through Tuesday, the day of the embassy attacks in Cairo and Benghazi. Let’s see how that foreign-policy question looks next week. On the other hand, because eeyore’s gotta be eeyore, note that Fox News’s national poll released last night is also showing a national lead for Obama of five points, 48/43. That poll was conducted over the same period as WSJ/NBC’s, so there’s bounciness built in there too, and the partisan split — 42D vs. 36R — strikes me as a bit more Democratic than we’ll see on election day. But again, the takeaway here is that O probably is ahead by a point or two. Nothing fatal. But Mitt needs a little momentum.

Click the image below for Pat Caddell’s thoughts on the worst campaign evah. Exit question: Team Romney’s now counting on the debates to be their launching pad, but, er, have the debates ever actually decided an election? Says John Sides, “Indeed, scholars who have looked most carefully at the data have found that, when it comes to shifting enough votes to decide the outcome of the election, presidential debates have rarely, if ever, mattered.”

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Nice. So for the good of the party you would destroy the nation.

WeekendAtBernankes on September 15, 2012 at 1:00 AM


For the good of the Nation, that Old stinking party should be destroyed.

TheAlamos on September 15, 2012 at 1:09 AM

Nice. So for the good of the party you would destroy the nation.

WeekendAtBernankes on September 15, 2012 at 1:00 AM


At least, conservatives who can’t vote for Romney in November will never say on TV that …

“Obama exudes an air of likability and friendliness, which is endearing!”

Unlike the nominee called Mittens.

TheAlamos on September 15, 2012 at 1:26 AM

If Romney takes VA and FL, he won’t necessarily need OH (though I think he’ll win it). All he has to do is take CO–where he’s ahead–and WI and IA–where he’s also likely ahead.

My guess is that Romney’s not going negative simply because he’s doing better than these polls are showing. Believe me, he knows how to throw punches–as we saw in the primaries. But there’s no need. Politicians go negative when they’re behind.

Right now he’s strong as hell in the Midwest and in CO and in FL. American Pulse has Romney way up in CO, NC and VA, and doing well in FL and WI and even in OH. They weight by measuring voter enthusiasm. ARG had Romney up by 3 nationally, 49-46–same as Ras today who has it 48-45. I think Romney’s sitting on a good lead.

writeblock on September 15, 2012 at 3:29 AM

I would add that most of the other polls–NBC, ABC, CNN, PPP–have a liberal agenda. They use their polls to influence the race itself. They have been very far down the list on Fordham’s recent study of pollster accuracy. Far down the list was Gallup which came in 20th. ARG, however, was near the top at 6th, and Ras was at the very top of the list for accuracy in 2008.

writeblock on September 15, 2012 at 3:40 AM