WaPo/ABC poll shows no change in race from before convention

posted at 9:21 am on September 11, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Maybe this will stop the silly post-convention panic among Republicans.  When the Washington Post/ABC poll tells you there’s been no convention bump for Barack Obama, you can pretty much take that to the bank.  Their latest survey shows the likely-voter split in the presidential race right where we found it a fortnight ago, with Obama up one single point over Mitt Romney — in a sample that favors the Democrats:

Last week’s Democratic National Convention helped President Obama improve his standing against Republican Mitt Romney, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, but did little to reduce voter concern about his handling of the economy.

The survey shows that the race remains close among likely voters, with Obama at 49 percent and Romney at 48 percent, virtually unchanged from a poll taken just before the conventions.

So, the second paragraph actually disproves the first.  But the Post tries hard to pretend that no movement among likely voters means improvement for Obama:

But among a wider sample of all registered voters, Obama holds an apparent edge, topping Romney at 50 percent to 44 percent, and has clear advantages on important issues in the campaign when compared with his rival.

We’re less than 60 days out.  Registered-voter samples don’t mean much at this stage of the election; it’s likely voters that provide predictive data from surveys.  They mean even less when only 26% in the sample are Republicans.  The likely voter sample improves that by a point to 27%, but still has a D+6 D/R/I at 33/27/36.  The 2010 midterms had a national turnout D/R/I of 35/35/30; the 2008 election was D+7 at 39/32/29.  A GOP turnout of 27% would be among the worst ever in a presidential race, if not a record.  Since enthusiasm measures in other surveys, notably Gallup’s, show an enthusiasm gap favoring Republicans, I’m not inclined to buy this poll’s likely-voter split as a model for this election.

Also, the internals for Obama even among RVs are hardly cheery.  His job approval hasn’t budged since before the conventions.  Three weeks ago, it was 47/50, and now it’s 48/50.  On the economy, he went from 43/56 to 45/53.  Among independents, Obama’s job approval is 45/50 with 37% strongly disapproving.  That’s probably why Romney’s beating Obama among likely independent voters by eleven points, 54/43.  Obama won independents by eight in 2008 on his way to a seven point victory overall.  That’s a 19-point swing among independents.

In other words, the convention had no real impact at all on the race.  That’s why I say “I told you so” in my column for The Week:

Gallup conducted a survey of more than 1,000 adults over the two days following the end of the Democratic National Convention to determine which convention had the most impact. In practically every measure, the conventions produced no net change in anticipated voter behavior. After the Republican convention, 40 percent said they’d be more likely to vote for Mitt Romney, while 38 percent said less likely, with 21 percent saying the convention had no real impact at all. For Democrats, the numbers are 43/38/20, respectively. Both sets of numbers are within the 4 percent margin of error, producing a complete wash.

Conventions used to serve the purpose of cutting through the media filters so that undecided voters could see candidates for themselves and decide on their vote. But Gallup’s data on independents shows that such voters were largely unswayed by the conventions. The Democratic convention produced a 39/39 split among unaffiliated voters (half said they were more likely to vote for Obama, and half said less), while the GOP convention had a three-point positive edge, 36/33 — still well within the margin of error. Furthermore, fewer people watched the conventions at length this year, with only 55 percent of Gallup’s respondents saying they’d watched “a great deal” or “some” of the Democratic convention, and 51 percent for the GOP convention. Those are the lowest ratings from Gallup for nominating conventions in 12 years.

The speeches didn’t exactly move the needle, either — at least not those by the nominees. Only 43 percent rated Barack Obama’s speech “excellent” or “good,” just 5 points higher than Mitt Romney’s 38 percent. Both candidates scored a 16 percent combined “poor” or “terrible” rating, while roughly a quarter of respondents didn’t see either speech.

So why bother spending tens of millions of dollars — including taxpayer money — to stage them?

Update: The poll also asks the “better off” question, among RVs only, and only 20% think they’re better off from 4 years ago, while 32% believe they’re worse off, and 47% say no change.  Among independents, that’s 19/38/43, perhaps one reason why Romney’s up eleven among independents.

Update II: Since I usually heap scorn on the WaPo/ABC series’ samples, I really should note that the Post has done a terrific job in providing easy access to the raw data breakdowns.  They have each question charted, with the cross-tab info easily accessible on each via drop-down boxes.  Well done.


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The swing state polls are more important than a national poll.

I’m in safely red Texas. Anyone know how we can help phone bank via computer into swing states?
Links?

parteagirl on September 11, 2012 at 9:35 AM

Right here Volunteer for Mitt

ChrisL on September 11, 2012 at 10:18 AM

Ha! A poll that shows Romney doing reasonably well and not one comment critiquing the poll’s methodology.

What a coincidence.

YYZ on September 11, 2012 at 9:59 AM

Read a little closer, troll.

Since enthusiasm measures in other surveys, notably Gallup’s, show an enthusiasm gap favoring Republicans, I’m not inclined to buy this poll’s likely-voter split as a model for this election.

Which basically means that with a more balanced sample, Romney’s leading this poll–whose methodology Ed most certainly did critique.

Right Mover on September 11, 2012 at 10:18 AM

So why bother spending tens of millions of dollars — including taxpayer money — to stage them?

A circus can be fun to watch even if its forgettable a few days later. Besides, knowing how much better the line up of Republicans will be in the years to come versus the Democrats… makes me feel a little bit better about the future even among all the doom and gloom.

Ukiah on September 11, 2012 at 10:18 AM

BTW, Obama’s approval rating on Rasmussen is still at 52%.

gumbyandpokey on September 11, 2012 at 10:20 AM

changer1701 on September 11, 2012 at 9:29 AM

..you are indeed no “Sunshine Patriot“; you are the type that would stand fast at Concord, Breed’s Hill, Lexington, and would Winter over at Valley Forge!

I salute you, sir (or madame as the case may be)!

The War Planner on September 11, 2012 at 10:20 AM

Maybe this will stop the silly post-convention panic among Republicans. Righty Bloggers.

FIFY

maineconservative on September 11, 2012 at 10:23 AM

There are a good number of people out there (I’m one of them) who will vote against Obama,

HAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

You have been transparently in the tank for Obama since the second you showed up here at Hot Air. Nobody’s buying this.

Right Mover on September 11, 2012 at 10:24 AM

Tom Bevan ‏@TomBevanRCP
Obama lead now 3.1%. Also, his 48.7% share is highest since 3/28 & less than a pt off of his all time high of 49.5%. http://bit.ly/eLHNcQ

gumbyandpokey on September 11, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Got intrade’s numbers on Incumbent Dem President re-elections? They weren’t around for any? I’m shocked.

oldroy on September 11, 2012 at 10:00 AM

And what were Intrade’s numbers for the Obamacare Supreme Court ruling, again?
https://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?contractId=745353&tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com

It was almost hitting 80 before the ruling. Oops.

strictnein on September 11, 2012 at 10:26 AM

Maybe this will stop the silly post-convention panic among Republicans.

Meh. HA and TH bloggers post most every poll, skewed or not. And have been since last November. You folks need to get to the substance and avoid the lib-biased polls. Or, better yet, Ed, have a ‘beer summit’ with AP. That’ll certainly straighten some of the bunched panties on this site.
socalcon on September 11, 2012 at 9:49 AM

Ed’s a bit more circumspect with his take on polling than AP. I say skip the beer and just keep a tranquilizer dart handy to calm AP down.

whatcat on September 11, 2012 at 10:26 AM

parteagirl on September 11, 2012 at 9:35 AM

Right here Volunteer for Mitt

ChrisL on September 11, 2012 at 10:18 AM

Too cool, Chris! I’m starting today! Thanks!

The War Planner on September 11, 2012 at 10:27 AM

Chudi on September 11, 2012 at 9:48 AM

I saw that too- made me really question her intelligence. It was almost as if she’d be O.K., with an eventual loss, just make her happy NOW with a good poll.

BettyRuth on September 11, 2012 at 10:00 AM

Ingraham wants to be a TV star and getting a regular show instead of just a substitute host for BOR. To that end, she seeks to increase her visibility by acting as a self important blow-hard. The media is happy to promote any non-liberal talking head who harps on the GOP nominee.

bayview on September 11, 2012 at 10:27 AM

If Romney is up by 4% or more on election day with independents then he will win. if you look at state registrations over the past few years Dems have actually lost a little ground to Rep’s and Indy’s have actually picked up the most. I don’t see any more than 2% between D’s and R’s in turnout. The Indy vote will be the most crucial. it seems right now that obama is trailing in most polls with Indy’s by 8-12%. This would equate to a 5-6% Romney advantage.

Ta111 on September 11, 2012 at 10:28 AM

“It was almost hitting 80 before the ruling. Oops.”

Comparing a court ruling not at all based on public opinion to an election outcome based on totall on public opinion isn’t exactly accurate, lol.

If people believe Obama is going to win, that’s going to be the outcome.

gumbyandpokey on September 11, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Polls are historically, and notoriously, shaky directly after the conventions. They tend to gain stability and accuracy the last six weeks leading up to election day.

I don’t pay much attention to polls. They’ve been famously inaccurate in the past. They’re only a means to take the general temperature of the electorate and only one indicator.

As someone mentioned on these threads yesterday, the only poll that counts is the final one taken on election day.

thatsafactjack on September 11, 2012 at 10:30 AM

BTW, Obama’s approval rating on Rasmussen is still at 52%.

gumbyandpokey on September 11, 2012 at 10:16 AM

We’d feel a whole lot better about your supposed support of Romney and antipathy towards Obama if you’d spend more time here as opposed to posting your troll drek on HG.

The War Planner on September 11, 2012 at 10:32 AM

I guess what i don’t get is who changes there opinion so quickly?

tomas on September 11, 2012 at 10:32 AM

Since the squeeze play didn’t work, is it time to start paying Akin?

EddieC on September 11, 2012 at 10:32 AM

If people believe Obama is going to win, that’s going to be the outcome.

gumbyandpokey on September 11, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Dewey defeats Truman!! Dewey defeats Truman!

Your concern is duly noted. I’m convinced you want Obama to win, with how much you talk about how inevitable it is, finding every piece of negativity you can to push that meme. It’s getting old.

changer1701 on September 11, 2012 at 10:33 AM

“As someone mentioned on these threads yesterday, the only poll that counts is the final one taken on election day.”

Ah, there it is!

The comment that is always uttered by supporters of the losing side! Heard that phrase over and over and over again during poor old Bob Dole’s campaign and after McCain quit his campaign and lost his lead. Now helpless, wimpy Mitt is in the same boat.

gumbyandpokey on September 11, 2012 at 10:33 AM

Comparing a court ruling not at all based on public opinion to an election outcome based on totall on public opinion isn’t exactly accurate, lol.

If people believe Obama is going to win, that’s going to be the outcome.

gumbyandpokey on September 11, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Look at Corzine’s intrade numbers on Election Day 2009. Or even Doug Hoffman.

sentinelrules on September 11, 2012 at 10:34 AM

“Dewey defeats Truman!! Dewey defeats Truman!”

There’s a nice, recent example of the polls being wrong!!

I’m going to be handing out a lot of “I told you So’s” in November.

gumbyandpokey on September 11, 2012 at 10:35 AM

Andrew Klavan on the polls:

I’ve been out of the country for a week. I left and conservatives were holding a celebration that looked like the parade scene from Ferris Bueller. I come back and they’re re-enacting Jonestown. The post DNC polls, it seems, have convinced some of us that all is lost. Dudes! Have some freaking fortitude! Let me make three points (some of which I’ve developed after talking to an erstwhile political insider who will remain nameless).

1. The polls – and the news about the polls – are made by people who want to demoralize you. When you act demoralized, you are aiding and abetting the enemy and helping to spread their poison. They lie. We know they lie. And then we proceed to believe them. Don’t be doing that.

2. Even the best polls – Rasmussen’s – overestimate Democrat turnout and are not designed to take into account anomalies like 2010. Some say, “Well, they were pretty accurate in 2010.” But WHEN were they accurate? The answer: They turned quite suddenly accurate about ten minutes before the vote when even a blind man could look up and see the tsunami about to crash down on top of their heads. You wanna know how accurate September polling is? Take a look at this from Bloomberg. Not so much, kimosabe. Look closely at that Reagan-Carter poll too.

3. Romney and Obama are polling by the minute – far, far more often and more accurately than the professional pollsters. Which one of them looks frightened to you? Me too.

Hey, this is reality. Sometimes bad guys win and good guys lose. But to these increasingly ancient eyes, it looks as if we are on the march and they are in retreat. Is it time to despair? Not today, brothers and sisters. Not today.

The War Planner on September 11, 2012 at 10:36 AM

“finding every piece of negativity”

Just posting facts. If you don’t like them, too bad. I’m based in what IS and not what SHOULD BE.

Obama is winning. Romney is losing. End of story.

gumbyandpokey on September 11, 2012 at 10:36 AM

“3. Romney and Obama are polling by the minute – far, far more often and more accurately than the professional pollsters. Which one of them looks frightened to you? Me too.”

With that ridiculous memo released yesterday the the Romney campaign, they look like losers.

gumbyandpokey on September 11, 2012 at 10:37 AM

I always love reading Ed’s spin right before an election. This still isn’t as awful as his analysis of the 2008 race but it’s getting there.

Typhonsentra on September 11, 2012 at 10:38 AM

gumbyandpokey on September 11, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Ahh, ok and your evidence that Intrade is super accurate in predicting close elections is… where?

strictnein on September 11, 2012 at 10:38 AM

I have to wonder how these guys do their polling. Who answers the phone these days? Could it be that the reason they skew their results is because it’s the best they can do?

COgirl on September 11, 2012 at 10:39 AM

gumbyandpokey on September 11, 2012 at 10:37 AM

It’s impressive that everything you see and read reinforces your beliefs.

strictnein on September 11, 2012 at 10:40 AM

“It was almost hitting 80 before the ruling. Oops.”

Comparing a court ruling not at all based on public opinion to an election outcome based on totall on public opinion isn’t exactly accurate, lol.

If people believe Obama is going to win, that’s going to be the outcome.

gumbyandpokey on September 11, 2012 at 10:29 AM

That’s the problem though. It’s NOT public opinion. These are skewed samples that in no way reflect the current state of the electorate. Both the CNN and WaPo polls are absurd. As was that PPP O-I-H-O poll yesterday.

Doughboy on September 11, 2012 at 10:42 AM

Just posting facts. If you don’t like them, too bad. I’m based in what IS and not what SHOULD BE.

Obama is winning. Romney is losing. End of story.

gumbyandpokey on September 11, 2012 at 10:36 AM

No shortbus…you’re posting personal opinion. Ignorant and uninformed as it may be…it is your own personal opinion…not factual..and not even based in reality.

The FACT is that you are a moron. End of story.

And the reality is…we won’t know until November what the outcome will be. End of story.

HumpBot Salvation on September 11, 2012 at 10:42 AM

In Rassmusen daily tracking poll, it says

When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 49% and Romney 47%. Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either candidate but express a preference for one of them in a follow-up question.

Do not get psych out by the made believe tsunami Barry is riding on with help from BJ. The bounce will be as evanescent as Barry’s promises. Focus on working to throw Barry out on Nov 6.

bayview on September 11, 2012 at 10:43 AM

gumbyandpokey on September 11, 2012 at 10:36 AM

gmumby and Pokey sitting in a tree. K I S S I N G!

gerrym51 on September 11, 2012 at 10:43 AM

That WaPo poll was also done last Friday, the day after we had the Clintonpalooza in the media, and before either the bad jobs report or Obama’s mediocre speech and bad reviews had circulated among lots of voters. So it’s probably the high-water mark for Obama in this election. If he can’t get above 50% with RVs in a Democratic-skewed sample, he’s not winning.

rockmom on September 11, 2012 at 10:44 AM

COgirl on September 11, 2012 at 10:39 AM

I know several Republicans who tell a pollster they’re voting for Obama simply to give the DEMwits the false hope that he’s got a shot of winning.

They do it strictly so they can witness the shock and awe of the media (and trolls like gumbyandpokey) when Obama loses on November 6th.

Flora Duh on September 11, 2012 at 10:45 AM

I always love reading Ed’s spin right before an election. This still isn’t as awful as his analysis of the 2008 race but it’s getting there.

Typhonsentra on September 11, 2012 at 10:38 AM

Shouldn’t you be out worshiping Obama, freak?

wargamer6 on September 11, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Just posting facts. If you don’t like them, too bad. I’m based in what IS and not what SHOULD BE.

Obama is winning. Romney is losing. End of story.

gumbyandpokey on September 11, 2012 at 10:36 AM

Baloney. You’re concern trolling, and you know it. Just in this thread alone you’ve posted the same negative nonsense over and over again, singing the same old tired tune. You’re less concerned about facts then you are pushing the narrative that your guy Obama is inevitable or whatever.

changer1701 on September 11, 2012 at 10:46 AM

If people believe Obama is going to win, that’s going to be the outcome.

gumbyandpokey on September 11, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Dewey defeats Truman!! Dewey defeats Truman!

Your concern is duly noted. I’m convinced you want Obama to win, with how much you talk about how inevitable it is, finding every piece of negativity you can to push that meme. It’s getting old.

changer1701 on September 11, 2012 at 10:33 AM

Gumby is a transparently disingenuous Moby. If he were NOT the rabid Obama supporter he actually IS, then we’d occasionally see him show up over the last month or two on threads about good poll showings for Mitt, or on threads that put Obama in a negative light.
But he only trolls on threads that show “good news” for Obama. Today he claimed he’s not voting for Obama.
This was probably the latest instruction he received from his handlers at Organizing for America: Claim you’re actually a Romney voter, in order to reinforce the dis-spiriting meme that Mitt supporters have given up.

Give it up Gumby. We know your schtick all too well.

Right Mover on September 11, 2012 at 10:47 AM

gumby is a paid troll. he wracks up more $ everytime we respond so don’t.

gracie on September 11, 2012 at 10:50 AM

If people believe Obama is going to win, that’s going to be the outcome.
gumbyandpokey on September 11, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Dewey defeats Truman!! Dewey defeats Truman!
Your concern is duly noted. I’m convinced you want Obama to win, with how much you talk about how inevitable it is, finding every piece of negativity you can to push that meme. It’s getting old.
changer1701 on September 11, 2012 at 10:33 AM

Eh, it’s the Moby season – they crawl outta the woodwork to troll. But I wish somebody had told that thing about how if you wish for something, it will come true. Coulda used it at the tables in Vegas.

whatcat on September 11, 2012 at 10:51 AM

rack not wrack. but that’s what he does. annoying . needs to be excised or lanced and drained.

gracie on September 11, 2012 at 10:54 AM

It’s impressive that everything you see and read reinforces your beliefs.

strictnein on September 11, 2012 at 10:40 AM

..he is an attention-seeking fool and is easily influenced.

gumby is a paid troll. He wracks up more $ every time we respond, so don’t.

gracie on September 11, 2012 at 10:50 AM

..I’m in.

*shun on*

The War Planner on September 11, 2012 at 10:55 AM

I think there is a small Obama bounce reflected in the WaPo/ABC poll, because I believe that poll had Romney up by 1 before the conventions.

But I suspect that will fade. And, either way, it’s basically a tie.

acasilaco on September 11, 2012 at 10:55 AM

Gumby is a transparently disingenuous Moby. If he were NOT the rabid Obama supporter he actually IS, then we’d occasionally see him show up over the last month or two on threads about good poll showings for Mitt, or on threads that put Obama in a negative light.
But he only trolls on threads that show “good news” for Obama.
Give it up Gumby. We know your schtick all too well.
Right Mover on September 11, 2012 at 10:47 AM

The schtick started as soon as it slithered in during the last open registrations. Like you said – “busted”.

whatcat on September 11, 2012 at 10:57 AM

The schtick started as soon as it slithered in during the last open registrations. Like you said – “busted”.

whatcat on September 11, 2012 at 10:57 AM

A terrific find, there, whatcat. All the way back in December, our supposed GOP voter wasn’t saying anything in support of any of the primary candidates. He was already trumpeting Obama’s inevitability, as per his paid instructions.

Oh, and Tyhonsentra comes from the same troll factory with her own set of prepared talking points.

Right Mover on September 11, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Obama lead now 3.1%. Also, his 48.7% share is highest since 3/28 & less than a pt off of his all time high of 49.5%. http://bit.ly/eLHNcQ

gumbypoked on September 11, 2012 at 10:25 AM

That average was distorted by including a +6 from a seriously flawed CNN agenda poll. The shortcoming the the CNN poll was discussed in some details yesterday (heavily overloaded with Dems (around +11), and internal showed a 14 point edge for Romney among independent when one dissected the data). Your attempt to demoralize those who are just paying casual attention will not work. One, you have already exposed yourself as an Obot. I do not think you are a paid Axelrod tool because you are so inept, who will pay you? But of course, the Barry campaign is so short of money that they may to muddle through pond scum, looking for basement clearance troll on sale for a dime. The more desperate you try, the more ineffective you are.

bayview on September 11, 2012 at 11:09 AM

He was already trumpeting Obama’s inevitability, as per his paid instructions.
Right Mover on September 11, 2012 at 11:05 AM

I hope he’s getting paid for it – takes funds away from some OFA tactic that might actually work. Heck, even Slow Joe Biden would be a smarter Moby! (Of course, that’s not saying much for Joe…)
:D

whatcat on September 11, 2012 at 11:11 AM

The more desperate you try, the more ineffective you are.

bayview on September 11, 2012 at 11:09 AM

If you’ve caught Typhonsentra’s act, especially during the Dem convention, it’s even more over-the-top than the weak game Gumby brings to these threads.

Right Mover on September 11, 2012 at 11:12 AM

“A terrific find, there, whatcat. All the way back in December, our supposed GOP voter wasn’t saying anything in support of any of the primary candidates. He was already trumpeting Obama’s inevitability, as per his paid instructions.”

I was wrong about the economy recovering, but was 100% right about Obama being the luckiest politician alive. Who else would be winning with such a consistently bad economy?

And, no, I wasn’t impressed with any of the GOP primary candidates. I ended up voting for Santorum because he was the most socially conservative of the bunch, and you can look up those posts, too, if you want. I thought he might have tanked badly, but also could connect with working class voters in the midwest that Romney never will be able to.

gumbyandpokey on September 11, 2012 at 11:12 AM

I think there is a small Obama bounce reflected in the WaPo/ABC poll, because I believe that poll had Romney up by 1 before the conventions.

But I suspect that will fade. And, either way, it’s basically a tie.

acasilaco on September 11, 2012 at 10:55 AM

That Barry +1 came from a +6 Dem overload

D 33 (94 B 6 R)
R 27 (6 B 91 R)
I 36 (43 B 54 R)

There is a +11 for Romney among independents. With a model reflecting turnouts in 2010, Romney will likely lead in that WaPo/ABC poll.

bayview on September 11, 2012 at 11:15 AM

WaPo/ABC poll shows no change in race from before convention

In other news:

Depends sales down among HotAir posters

May everyone have a troll-free, moby-free day.

AZfederalist on September 11, 2012 at 11:16 AM

Depends sales down among HotAir posters

Not in my house

gerrym51 on September 11, 2012 at 11:18 AM

Diff day, same shiite:

Obama has always been an extremely lucky politician and it’s continuing now. The sex scandal got him a Senate seat. The financial collapse got him the Presidency. And it looks like the timing is perfect with the recovery happening during election year. Reagan got the perfect timing in 84, as well, and no one was going to beat him.
gumbyandpokey on January 6, 2012 at 11:23 AM

whatcat on September 11, 2012 at 11:19 AM

gumby is a paid troll. he wracks up more $ everytime we respond so don’t.

my question is PAID BY WHO? if i could get paid I’d change sides(but still vote for MITT)

gerrym51 on September 11, 2012 at 11:21 AM

The idiots on AM radio need to just shutup. The man gets a 4 point bump, and they are like rats running from what they think is a sinking ship. MItt should scold them.

rubberneck on September 11, 2012 at 11:21 AM

Oy, the Moby just wasn’t very bright, but it was persistent:
With the approval ratings trajectory, in November, Obama wins in a cakewalk.
gumbyandpokey on February 1, 2012 at 6:56 PM

whatcat on September 11, 2012 at 11:23 AM

The War Planner on September 11, 2012 at 10:36 AM

That was a great analysis; Thanks for posting it.

BettyRuth on September 11, 2012 at 11:26 AM

gumby is a paid troll. he wracks up more $ everytime we respond so don’t.

my question is PAID BY WHO? if i could get paid I’d change sides(but still vote for MITT)

gerrym51 on September 11, 2012 at 11:21 AM

Like I said earlier, who would pay someone as inept? Maybe the Barry/Axelrod campaign is really broke, and cannot anything more than a bottom scum sucking, on sale in a dime store troll.

bayview on September 11, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Democrats and the media are going to push this meme as hard as possible. You can tell, just by the level of response and the way they are trying to will this into truth.

They even have some Republicans on the run, questioning Romney’s strategy. Cowards that they are, it’s time to put on you big boy pants.

Don’t just look at the last four years. Project those four years into the future. What’s your guess about the sustainability of the path we’re on?

Those promises Mr. Obama made? Fleeting? Too “hard”? Really? Do the next four years get easier? Can we simply carry forward what is happening now? Really? What exactly is that?

What is Mr. Obama’s plan to solve our biggest challenges? Anyone? Debt? Medicare? The giant issues with Obamacare? How about jobs? Oh, more “green” jobs? Energy independence and security? How about that “flexibility” he promised to Putin once he is reelected? A bit presumptuous and dastardly- no?

Marcus Traianus on September 11, 2012 at 11:29 AM

I know several Republicans who tell a pollster they’re voting for Obama simply to give the DEMwits the false hope that he’s got a shot of winning.

They do it strictly so they can witness the shock and awe of the media (and trolls like gumbyandpokey) when Obama loses on November 6th.

Flora Duh on September 11, 2012 at 10:45 AM

This is a really stupid game to play because bad polls are not a good thing to have. Advise these fools not to play this game.

mnjg on September 11, 2012 at 11:36 AM

my question is PAID BY WHO? if i could get paid I’d change sides(but still vote for MITT)

gerrym51 on September 11, 2012 at 11:21 AM

axelrod. feeding propaganda to lots of unemployed youth in their mothers’ basements. get paid by the post and if they can keep it going with our responses, there u have it.

gracie on September 11, 2012 at 11:37 AM

gumbyandpokey on September 11, 2012 at 11:12 AM

Hey idiot, do you really believe that your lies are going to demoralize anyone here from voting? It is better for your side to go and get the welfare queens to the polls rather than playing the futile game of demoralizing our side… It takes a lot of efforts to bring a welfare queen to vote whereas the producers i.e. our side does not require that much effort..

mnjg on September 11, 2012 at 11:40 AM

So then it really was just a dead cat bounce for Ore-run with gobs of libturd wishful thinking slopped on top. Just can’t wait for the post-debate polls.

stukinIL4now on September 11, 2012 at 11:40 AM

Q: On a ship in a storm, who would you rather have as the captain (Obama) or (Romney)?

This is a funny question, because Romney actually has had a boat, and driven it, AND, he and his boys a few years back rode out to the middle of the lake in NH and rescued a family.

There is no evidence that Barach Obama knows how to handle a boat on a calm sea, let alone in a stormy one.

And yet, 46-43 the kind of people that answered this survey chose Obama. I guess they want to rely more on inspiration during the storm than anyone actually doing anything.

Fleuries on September 11, 2012 at 11:41 AM

We aren’t moving much from the beginning of the summer until today. Some news moves the bar a little, the major dem blips are done by polls with zero believability in their splits.

More importantly, facts on the ground are against Obama. He is pulling out of NC, even though supposedly ROmney is only up a couple points. He is spending big in Chicago apparently to bolster fundraisnig, since he isn’t going to lose Illinois, or is soomething happening there? Indiana is out of reach for Obama and Wisconsin media would be much cheaper to support his WI efforts.

And look at the ground game – Obama rallies are not well attended and there isn’t much visibility out there outside of TV ads. Nothing like 2008. His fundrainsing haul for August was actually the best on the ground news he has had since stopping the Romney onslaught in the late spring.

I still see this like a reverse of 2008, probably a little closer due to Obama’s built in 120 votes from CA, NY, IL, and MA.

Zomcon JEM on September 11, 2012 at 11:45 AM

What do you think of the breakdown in this poll?

33% Democrats
23% Republicans
37% Independent
7% Other/I don’t know

Washington Post

It would be nice to know what the breakdown of voters in a purple state is going to be.

Fleuries on September 11, 2012 at 11:47 AM

So why bother spending tens of millions of dollars — including taxpayer money — to stage them?

Because the current duopoly serves the US Congress very nicely.

If not the US people…

JohnGalt23 on September 11, 2012 at 11:48 AM

Just posting facts. If you don’t like them, too bad. I’m based in what IS and not what SHOULD BE.

Obama is winning. Romney is losing. End of story.

gumbyandpokey on September 11, 2012 at 10:36 AM

Hahaha, you are based in the sad, moronic altrnate reality that you inhabit in your demented little head, troll….

jimver on September 11, 2012 at 11:54 AM

Alternate..”

jimver on September 11, 2012 at 11:55 AM

Maybe this will stop the silly post-convention panic among Republicans. When the Washington Post/ABC poll tells you there’s been no convention bump for Barack Obama, you can pretty much take that to the bank.

Or maybe this will confirm that when you are slinging BS everyone doesn’t get the memo.

Conan on September 11, 2012 at 11:57 AM

Fired UP now it’s back on the stump
LIBS are GUSHING, “we’re OVER the hump”!
But the look in their eyes…
(As the oceans still rise)
Says they NEEDED a MUCH bigger BUMP!

:-)

Nana on September 11, 2012 at 11:57 AM

Maybe this will stop the silly post-convention panic among Republicans.

There are a lot of panic attackers around. Some of them are just plain quitters.

Moesart on September 11, 2012 at 12:01 PM

gumbyandpokey on September 11, 2012 at 11:12 AM

Hey idiot, do you really believe that your lies are going to demoralize anyone here from voting? It is better for your side to go and get the welfare queens to the polls rather than playing the futile game of demoralizing our side… It takes a lot of efforts to bring a welfare queen to vote whereas the producers i.e. our side does not require that much effort..

mnjg on September 11, 2012 at 11:40 AM

That one is delusional…but the are a lot of hysterical ones on our side too, think the overreaction by some (on HA too) the past few days, after the touted so called ‘bump’ for O after their convention…only someone competely detached from reality coud buy into that pathetic dim propaganda courtesy of lib media….

jimver on September 11, 2012 at 12:03 PM

There are that is….

jimver on September 11, 2012 at 12:04 PM

If Romney is up by 4% or more on election day with independents then he will win. if you look at state registrations over the past few years Dems have actually lost a little ground to Rep’s and Indy’s have actually picked up the most. I don’t see any more than 2% between D’s and R’s in turnout. The Indy vote will be the most crucial. it seems right now that obama is trailing in most polls with Indy’s by 8-12%. This would equate to a 5-6% Romney advantage.

Ta111 on September 11, 2012 at 10:28 AM

I wouldn’t go that far. Indies usually make up about 30% of the electorate, so that a 10-point advantage among Indies can overcome a D+3 turnout, assuming all Dems vote for Obama and all Reps vote for Romney.

This is where voter enthusiasm comes in. Romney and Ryan need to “fire up the base” and get known Republicans, conservatives, Republican sympathizers, and anyone opposed to Obama in swing states to bring their friends to the polls, and maximize Republican turnout so that Democrat turnout is no more than 2% ahead of Republican turnout. It would also be helpful if Romney could run ads casting doubt on Obama’s leadership ability and record, possibly inciting some Democrats to either stay home or cross over for Romney.

Steve Z on September 11, 2012 at 12:08 PM

I see no benefit in arguing about polls and bothering to attack trolls only wastes time. The trolls will remain and get a kick out of riling people up. They have to argue their nonsense just to believe it, so it’s best to leave them alone in their misery.

I suggest that EVERYONE who thinks it’s even a remote possibility that Obama will win – volunteer for Mitt. Nope, Mitt was not my first, second or even third choice. I was angry that the MSM and GOP forced him on us. That being said, I will now work my butt off to ensure that Obama loses. It becomes the most important issue to me.

katablog.com on September 11, 2012 at 12:17 PM

I have never seen so much stupid in one thread!

F*** the polls; talk to your neighbors and coworkers, get on Facebook. Ask them who they are voting for and why. If they are voting for Obama, ask them why and persuade them why they should vote for Romney. If you just sit here on HotGas and bitch at one another about crappy polls you are part of the problem!

ManWithNoName on September 11, 2012 at 12:18 PM

I have never seen so much stupid in one thread!

F*** the polls; talk to your neighbors and coworkers, get on Facebook. Ask them who they are voting for and why. If they are voting for Obama, ask them why and persuade them why they should vote for Romney. If you just sit here on HotGas and whine at one another about crappy polls then you are part of the problem!

ManWithNoName on September 11, 2012 at 12:22 PM

Ok…I feel Less Wobbly today than I did yesterday.

Maybe it was the allergy medicine.

I will reiterate: I believe when reporting polls, media outlets must be required to also report the actual sample breakdown. It only makes sense.

GadsdenRattlers on September 11, 2012 at 12:26 PM

This is a really stupid game to play because bad polls are not a good thing to have. Advise these fools not to play this game.

mnjg on September 11, 2012 at 11:36 AM

I agree. Sadly there are just enough people out there who, no matter which candidate they prefer, will vote for the percieved “winner” just so they can be on the winning side. Don’t scoff, I’ve seen it happen.

GadsdenRattlers on September 11, 2012 at 12:28 PM

If they are voting for Obama, ask them why and persuade them why they should vote for Romney.

That’s also a waste of time. I’ve yet to run into ONE person who said they were going to vote for Owe who was even open to discussing any other possibility.

I have talked to people who say they are undecided or worse yet say they aren’t going to vote – these are the people with whom we should attempt to persuade or provide reasons for voting for Mitt.

katablog.com on September 11, 2012 at 12:30 PM

This is a really stupid game to play because bad polls are not a good thing to have. Advise these fools not to play this game.

mnjg on September 11, 2012 at 11:36 AM

I agree. Sadly there are just enough people out there who, no matter which candidate they prefer, will vote for the percieved “winner” just so they can be on the winning side. Don’t scoff, I’ve seen it happen.

GadsdenRattlers on September 11, 2012 at 12:28 PM

This boggles the mind, assuming it happens….

jimver on September 11, 2012 at 12:30 PM

Maybe this will stop the silly post-convention panic among Republicans HotAir Eeyore Pundits.

FTFY.

hoosiermama on September 11, 2012 at 9:29 AM

It was right before you fixed it. Ingraham, Kristol, Goldberg etc are Republicans. If the Democrats had a candidate as qualified as Romney they would be singing his praises 24/7. Romney could do a better job of countering Obama’s false narratives, but that said he is providing a clear choice and is winning Independents. Why are these Republican pundits joining with the liberal media in trying to depress the Republican base? Are they that stupid? Who are they trying to impress?

We need better pundits.

Basilsbest on September 11, 2012 at 12:31 PM

Not a single person who will change their mind is reading this Web site.

ignatzk on September 11, 2012 at 1:00 PM

Ingraham, Kristol, Goldberg etc are Republicans. If the Democrats had a candidate as qualified as Romney they would be singing his praises 24/7. Romney could do a better job of countering Obama’s false narratives, but that said he is providing a clear choice and is winning Independents. Why are these Republican pundits joining with the liberal media in trying to depress the Republican base? Are they that stupid? Who are they trying to impress?

We need better pundits.

Basilsbest on September 11, 2012 at 12:31 PM

.agreed…as for our wunderbar pundits, well, some have no clue (Kristol), some are hysterical (Ingraham), some are more concerned with their own shows’ ratings and stuff (O’Reilly), some are opportunistic (Erickson) , some are well meaning but they think of themselves as some sort of conservative gurus and they feel it’s their duty to sound as equidistant as they can (Krauthammer) even if this sometimes means ignoring the reality, some want to appear as engaged and non ideological (Brit Hume), some are geeky and they over-do it at times Byron York)…your guess is as good as anyone’s….

jimver on September 11, 2012 at 1:01 PM

It should have read ‘not engaged’..

jimver on September 11, 2012 at 1:02 PM

I’ll hold my breath waiting for all the HA libs to admit that many of us were right not to take post-convention polls seriously and not to think they augured Obama pulling away for good.

…Someone please call an ambulance.

HitNRun on September 11, 2012 at 1:13 PM

Wouldn’t it be neat to get a poll taken where the percentages actually match? Novel idea, I know, but….

44Magnum on September 11, 2012 at 1:28 PM

Ingraham, Kristol, Goldberg etc are Republicans. If the Democrats had a candidate as qualified as Romney they would be singing his praises 24/7. Romney could do a better job of countering Obama’s false narratives, but that said he is providing a clear choice and is winning Independents. Why are these Republican pundits joining with the liberal media in trying to depress the Republican base? Are they that stupid? Who are they trying to impress?

We need better pundits.

Basilsbest on September 11, 2012 at 12:31 PM

.agreed…as for our wunderbar pundits, well, some have no clue (Kristol), some are hysterical (Ingraham), some are more concerned with their own shows’ ratings and stuff (O’Reilly), some are opportunistic (Erickson) , some are well meaning but they think of themselves as some sort of conservative gurus and they feel it’s their duty to sound as equidistant as they can (Krauthammer) even if this sometimes means ignoring the reality, some want to appear as engaged and non ideological (Brit Hume), some are geeky and they over-do it at times Byron York)…your guess is as good as anyone’s….

jimver on September 11, 2012 at 1:01 PM

These are great comments. This is one of the reasons Andrew Breitbart set up the Bigs – to give conservatism a voice and do what the democrats do when they all stand behind their candidate. If you watch AB’s CPAC speech he did care who would come out of the primary, just that he was supporting that candidate. Great stuff.

Do you see the democrats pull the same BS that our “conservative” pundits do? Not unless their getting fitted for the underside of the bus.

This is why we’ll always be fighting a harder fight than we need to. We need better pundits and better people working for the cause, not people who want the cause to work for them, which is what we mainly have now.

We need more Andrew Breitbarts and less of the above.

kim roy on September 11, 2012 at 1:49 PM

*didn’t care…. primary.

kim roy on September 11, 2012 at 1:50 PM

“Their latest survey shows the likely-voter split in the presidential race right where we found it a fortnight ago…”

The Post/ABC poll didn’t survey likely voters a fortnight ago, so I don’t know what you’re comparing the number to when you say he hasn’t bounced, Ed. Are you comparing likely voters today to registered voters in August? “Take that to the bank” and they’ll have your photo taped to the booth window the next time you come in.

redfate on September 11, 2012 at 2:48 PM

Week-ends are hard. For some reason the polls seem to be for Obama on the week-ends.

I don’t know for sure… but it seems to me another bounce that hasn’t been discussed much is the bounce Romney got after he picked Ryan as the VP.

I think Romney got a boost overall from that. And I think that is still there. I think that is when Romney pulled even and sometimes ahead. Ryan helped. Against conventional wisdom.

And putting the mid-west in play is very helpful, even if we don’t win we force Obama to consentrate on more places and if you have a money advantage this is where it counts.

All in all, I think Romney has a better position just by keeping even.

And Democrats may feel they are helping by keeping Obama ahead in these polls… but I believe the opposite might also be true.

I don’t know any Republican who would stay home if Romney is behind a point or two… but Democrats who are less than excited might be more likely to stay home if Obama is ahead a point or two.

These pollesters might be shooting themselves in the foot.

petunia on September 11, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Curious that a Fordham University study on poll accuracy places ABC/WashPost polls way down the list and places ARG polls near the top. Yet the ARG post-convention poll showing Romney at 49% and Obama at 46% got almost no press coverage last week and was totally ignored by Hotair editors.

writeblock on September 11, 2012 at 5:05 PM

Maybe this will stop the silly post-convention panic among Republicans.

Not likely.

Terrye on September 11, 2012 at 5:18 PM

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