Q-poll shows Romney 7 back in … New Jersey

posted at 10:41 am on September 11, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Somehow, this doesn’t look like a convention bounce for Barack Obama, either. According to Quinnipiac’s first likely-voter look at New Jersey — a state Obama won in 2008 by fifteen points — Mitt Romney comes in only seven points back, with a narrow lead among independents [see update below]:

President Barack Obama tops Gov. Mitt Romney, his Republican challenger, 51 – 44 percent among New Jersey likely voters, who say the president will do a better job on Medicare and health care while Romney will do a better job on the economy, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This is the first measure of New Jersey likely voters by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University and can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters.

The gender and racial gaps are wide as Obama leads 57 – 38 percent among women and 92 – 3 percent among blacks. Romney leads 51 – 44 percent among men and 54 – 41 percent among white voters. Romney has a thin 48 – 44 percent lead among independent voters.

New Jersey voters give Obama a 52 – 44 percent favorability, while Romney has a 43 – 41 percent score. Vice President Joseph Biden gets a 44 – 41 percent favorability. U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan, Romney’s running mate, has a split 33 – 34 percent favorability, with 33 percent who don’t know enough about him to form an opinion.

Readers may be wondering about the sample split — and they should.  The D/R/I in this poll is weighted out to 34/26/36 — and that may be a little too generous to Republicans.  In 2008, Obama won the state by 15 with exit polling showing a turnout model of 44/28/28.  A year later, Chris Christie beat the Obama-backed Jon Corzine in the gubernatorial election, and in 2010 New Jersey didn’t have a Senate race at stake, so I’ve been unable to find any exit polling since 2008 to judge the turnout model for this election.  Quinnipiac looks like it’s a reasonable model, but it’s ten points lower for Democrats than in 2008, and that seems a little pessimistic for Obama in the Democrat-heavy Garden State.

Interestingly, while Obama won New Jersey by 15 in 2008, he only beat John McCain among independents by four, 51/47.  An eight-point swing in this demo would tend to erode the overall lead, but wouldn’t be decisive if the turnout model remains the same as 2008.

If this poll provides an accurate look at the race in New Jersey, Obama might need to spend some money there to solidify his hold on it.  Seven points would be tough for Romney to overcome, but it’s not impossible.  More to the point, though, is the drop in standing of Obama in what is almost always a safe Democratic state — and that may indicate that less-safe blue states (Pennsylvania, perhaps?) might be even more at risk.

Update: For some reason, this poll appears on Quinnipac’s RSS feed today — but the poll was released on September 6th.  I’ve never noticed a delay in the RSS feed publication like that for Quinnipiac, but I will keep a closer eye on it in the future.  The poll was taken before the Democratic convention.


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Like a phoenix

faraway on September 11, 2012 at 10:44 AM

That is why people SHOULD NOT PAY ATTENTION to FAKE Polls that has Barack leading by more then a point or two.

BroncosRock on September 11, 2012 at 10:46 AM

a state Obama won in 2008 by fifteen points — Mitt Romney comes in only seven points back,

That’s called a 7 point bounce Ed.

SWalker on September 11, 2012 at 10:47 AM

According to Quinnipiac’s first likely-voter look at New Jersey — a state Obama won in 2008 by fifteen points — Mitt Romney comes in only seven points back, with a narrow lead among independents

And the pattern holds. Obama is losing 8 points off his 2008 margins yet again. That’s unfortunately not enough to swing New Jersey into Romney’s column(unless turnout REEEEEEEEALLY favors the GOP in November), but it does mean states like Ohio and Florida which were decided by 4 points each are looking very good for Mitt right now. So unless Obama hangs onto Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, Wisconsin, and Nevada, he cannot win reelection.

Doughboy on September 11, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Somehow, this doesn’t look like a convention bounce for Barack Obama, either.

Sorry to burst your bubble, Ed, but the Q-poll was conducted August 27th through September 2nd. The DNC was the 4th through 6th.

steebo77 on September 11, 2012 at 10:48 AM

But the ABRs and Gumby and stupid say this isn’t possible!!11

wargamer6 on September 11, 2012 at 10:48 AM

This is without any of the three debates in which Mitt will kick Barack’s behind.

BroncosRock on September 11, 2012 at 10:49 AM

That is why people SHOULD NOT PAY ATTENTION to FAKE Polls that has Barack leading by more then a point or two.

BroncosRock on September 11, 2012 at 10:46 AM

As opposed to fake polls that have Obama leading by 6 pts. or more?

NotCoach on September 11, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Somehow, this doesn’t look like a convention bounce for Barack Obama, either.

Isn’t this poll 5 days old?

Jon0815 on September 11, 2012 at 10:49 AM

But – but, I thought AllahP said Romney was DEAD in the water. It was OVER.

Handwringers, your reactions please.

Ozwitch on September 11, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Isn’t this poll 5 days old?

Jon0815 on September 11, 2012 at 10:49 AM

It is. I think Ed skipped his second cup of coffee.

NotCoach on September 11, 2012 at 10:51 AM

This poll is from September 6.

Jon0815 on September 11, 2012 at 10:52 AM

As opposed to fake polls that have Obama leading by 6 pts. or more?

NotCoach on September 11, 2012 at 10:49 AM

The CNN poll has already been debunked. What other poll shows Obama up 6? Rasmussen is already back down to 3 today and that’s with the weekend still included in the rolling average.

Doughboy on September 11, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Isn’t this poll 5 days old?

Jon0815 on September 11, 2012 at 10:49 AM

It was released 5 days ago, but polling wrapped up 9 days ago.

steebo77 on September 11, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Isn’t this poll 5 days old?

Jon0815 on September 11, 2012 at 10:49 AM

It is. I think Ed skipped his second cup of coffee.

NotCoach on September 11, 2012 at 10:51 AM

I’ve updated my post. The report got published on Quinnipiac’s RSS feed today, which normally means it’s current. I’ll keep an eye on that with Quinnipiac in the future, but I should have checked the dates first.

Ed Morrissey on September 11, 2012 at 10:53 AM

It is. I think Ed skipped his second cup of coffee.

NotCoach on September 11, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Nope… This is just Ed yanking on peoples chains to see who is awake this early in the morning.

SWalker on September 11, 2012 at 10:53 AM

Q-poll shows Romney 7 back in … New Jersey

“GET THE HELL OFF THE BEACH!”

ToddPA on September 11, 2012 at 10:55 AM

Update: For some reason, this poll appears on Quinnipac’s RSS feed today — but the poll was released on September 6th. I’ve never noticed a delay in the RSS feed publication like that for Quinnipiac, but I will keep a closer eye on it in the future. The poll was taken before the Democratic convention.

This is why I refuse to take Twitter posts and RSS feeds at face value. Check your sources…

Difficultas_Est_Imperium on September 11, 2012 at 10:55 AM

Update: For some reason, this poll appears on Quinnipac’s RSS feed today — but the poll was released on September 6th. I’ve never noticed a delay in the RSS feed publication like that for Quinnipiac, but I will keep a closer eye on it in the future. The poll was taken before the Democratic convention.

Haha. Your only job is to surf the internet and opine on other people’s work and make stuff up to confirm your bias. The least you can do is vet the work you are appropriating.

Panicking.

tommyhawk on September 11, 2012 at 10:56 AM

Rush’s words have never been so obvious, than lately.

“Polls aren’t intended to reflect voter intentions, but to INFLUENCE them”
(paraphrased)

Chill, peeps, and don’t become victims of the scare tactics, NOR become complacent.
ONWARD !!

pambi on September 11, 2012 at 10:56 AM

HANG TIGHT!! Do NOT dispair because of THEIR polls!! Give $$, volunteer, do what you can! See you on Nov 6!! We will shock the world!

WhatsRight on September 11, 2012 at 10:57 AM

The CNN poll has already been debunked. What other poll shows Obama up 6? Rasmussen is already back down to 3 today and that’s with the weekend still included in the rolling average.

Doughboy on September 11, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Let’s get this out of the way up front: Romney is up by 8 by my own analysis.

I wasn’t claiming that polls that show Obama with a large lead are legitimate or worrisome. I was wondering what is or is not a fake poll in the brain of BroncosRock.

NotCoach on September 11, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Ed knows we want polls so he’s giving us everything but the kitchen sink. Next he’ll be giving us Nixon vs. Humphrey

gerrym51 on September 11, 2012 at 10:58 AM

So unless Obama hangs onto Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, Wisconsin, and Nevada, he cannot win reelection.

Doughboy on September 11, 2012 at 10:48 AM

I’m thinking Virginia is a likely-Romney already. Not quite ready to call any of the others as likely.

I’d doubt New Mexico will go Romney. We have D-Heinrich way ahead of Wilson for Senate, and D-Lujan-Grisham way ahead of Arnold-Jones for District 1. I don’t see any way that we’ll go to Romney. Wish it weren’t true. New Mexico voters are moronically Dem-loyal – especially Hispanic Catholics. We could have a Zombie type event caused by Zero and it wouldn’t matter. Yes Bush one the state once upon a time, but the opposing candidate was John Kerry – not the saviour of the world.

I’d look for Iowa first, then maybe Colorado and/or Wisconsin. I think North Carolina is a likely Romney at this point. It will be close, but the map is just as difficult for Obama as it is for Romney – might be even worse for Obama when the polls “tighten” or show a “trend” in the last couple weeks before election.

oldroy on September 11, 2012 at 10:58 AM

O.K. In a poll that shows Mitt Romney leading among men, whites, and independents, while Obama leads among women and blacks (in Connecticut! There’s a game changer!), Obama is still up by seven and Ed is worried that the poll is too generous to Republicans!!?? Finally, a poll makes a post 2008 adjustment for the country’s move away from the Democrats as evidenced by the 2010 election and Christie’s election/popularity in the state, and Ed thinks they overdid it. Jeez, I thought Allah was the eyeore.

Of course, in a heavily Democrat state like Connecticut, the move to look at is not Dem to Repub but Dem to Indie. The D/R/I sample in the poll gives evidence to this reality by shifting from 44/28/28 to 34/26/36. The question is not whether the poll oversamples Republicans; the question is whether it correctly mirrors the shift away from Dems. A ten point drop seems drastic until we notice that eight of those points go to the Indie column. Seems right to me, and perhaps a bit, ah, on the conservative side.

Mr. Arkadin on September 11, 2012 at 10:58 AM

The economy is still the #1 issue in New Jersey. And Democrats far outnumber Republicans in registration so the samples look decent in this poll.

rockmom on September 11, 2012 at 10:59 AM

BroncosRock on September 11, 2012 at 10:46 AM
What a game

KBird on September 11, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Quinnipiac looks like it’s a reasonable model, but it’s ten points lower for Democrats than in 2008, and that seems a little pessimistic for Obama in the Democrat-heavy Garden State.

If Republican and independent turn-out remains high via a 2010 model, and Obama’s 2008 model falls by 10%, Romney/Ryan should win in a landslide. Make it happen!

THE FACTS: Even after a three-day media lovefest, Obama’s not polling over 50 in any national polls and most swing state polls. Conditions will never be this sweet for him again… And. He. Can’t. Get. Over. 50.

The media lies. That’s what they do. It’s not about truth; it’s about winning Obama a second term. And in order to rescue him from the disastrous trifecta of a lame speech, booing God and an awful jobs report, the lying media launched this inevitability nonsense. ~ John Nolte link

Rovin on September 11, 2012 at 10:59 AM

O.K. In a poll that shows Mitt Romney leading among men, whites, and independents, while Obama leads among women and blacks (in Connecticut! There’s a game changer!), Obama is still up by seven and Ed is worried that the poll is too generous to Republicans!!?? Finally, a poll makes a post 2008 adjustment for the country’s move away from the Democrats as evidenced by the 2010 election and Christie’s election/popularity in the state, and Ed thinks they overdid it. Jeez, I thought Allah was the eyeore.

Of course, in a heavily Democrat state like Connecticut, the move to look at is not Dem to Repub but Dem to Indie. The D/R/I sample in the poll gives evidence to this reality by shifting from 44/28/28 to 34/26/36. The question is not whether the poll oversamples Republicans; the question is whether it correctly mirrors the shift away from Dems. A ten point drop seems drastic until we notice that eight of those points go to the Indie column. Seems right to me, and perhaps a bit, ah, on the conservative side.

Mr. Arkadin on September 11, 2012 at 10:58 AM

New Jersey.

steebo77 on September 11, 2012 at 11:00 AM

Readers may be wondering about the sample split — and they should. The D/R/I in this poll is weighted out to 34/26/36 — and that may be a little too generous to Republicans.

I want you leftist nutroot trolls to remember this next time you’re haranguing Ed, AP, Erika, and the Hot Air community in general for talking about how badly skewed polls have been. When it’s skewed in our direction, they mention it (see also the PPP Akin poll).

Red Cloud on September 11, 2012 at 11:00 AM

I wouldn’t spend money directly in NJ.

Spend it in SE Pennsylvania to hit the Philly suburbs, which are necessary to win that state, and you’ll get some bleedover of the ads into NJ.

teke184 on September 11, 2012 at 11:00 AM

Next he’ll be giving us Nixon vs. Humphrey

gerrym51 on September 11, 2012 at 10:58 AM

I want to see the Humpbot vs Melting Bunny poll.. Only then will I know how to vote…

SWalker on September 11, 2012 at 11:00 AM

The gender and racial gaps are wide as Obama leads 57 – 38 percent among women and 92 – 3 percent among blacks. Romney leads 51 – 44 percent among men and 54 – 41 percent among white voters. Romney has a thin 48 – 44 percent lead among independent voters.

…interesting racial gap…again

KOOLAID2 on September 11, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Ed knows we want polls so he’s giving us everything but the kitchen sink. Next he’ll be giving us Nixon vs. Humphrey

gerrym51 on September 11, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Oh my Fluking goodness! Nixon is going to lose! Good job Republicans!!

NotCoach on September 11, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Ed knows we want polls so he’s giving us everything but the kitchen sink. Next he’ll be giving us Nixon vs. Humphrey

gerrym51 on September 11, 2012 at 10:58 AM

TommyHawk will claim we’re worried that Nixon will lose. Heck, get Allah in the worry-wort mood and he might not remember that Nixon won.

oldroy on September 11, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Fake Polls are the ones that shows Barack ahead by 4 or more points,by having 37% or 38% democrats polling, like how Gallup or most of the polls that came out on Monday.

BroncosRock on September 11, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Chill, peeps, and don’t become victims of the scare tactics, NOR become complacent.
ONWARD !!

pambi on September 11, 2012 at 10:56 AM

..amen! I posted a reaction to polls by Andrew Klavan on another thread. It’s worth reading. The money quotes:

1. The polls – and the news about the polls – are made by people who want to demoralize you. When you act demoralized, you are aiding and abetting the enemy and helping to spread their poison. They lie. We know they lie. And then we proceed to believe them. Don’t be doing that.

3. Romney and Obama are polling by the minute – far, far more often and more accurately than the professional pollsters. Which one of them looks frightened to you? Me too.

The War Planner on September 11, 2012 at 11:04 AM

gerrym51 on September 11, 2012 at 10:58 AM

TommyHawk will claim we’re worried that Nixon will lose. Heck, get Allah in the worry-wort mood and he might not remember that Nixon won.

oldroy on September 11, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Never work, it’s still early enough in the morning that Allahpundit’s cat is pinch posting for him (allahpundit never gets up before the crack of noon). Allahpundit’s cat never gets fooled by trick questions or ancient polls.

SWalker on September 11, 2012 at 11:06 AM

Romney and Runyan callers are hitting hard in South Jersey and they’re not automated either.

Go RBNY on September 11, 2012 at 11:06 AM

Holy Mother of God. This is in NJ which floors me.

Christie wasn’t a “fluke” pardon the use of the word.

NJ Red on September 11, 2012 at 11:07 AM

I want you leftist nutroot trolls to remember this next time you’re haranguing Ed, AP, Erika, and the Hot Air community in general for talking about how badly skewed polls have been. When it’s skewed in our direction, they mention it (see also the PPP Akin poll).

Red Cloud on September 11, 2012 at 11:00 AM

Polls aren’t skewed nutbag. They call people, people answer and tell them what they think. It’s not a plot, it’s a methodology. Maybe Republicans are too Eastwooded to get all the way through a phone call without forgetting what they are doing and hanging up the phone.

tommyhawk on September 11, 2012 at 11:07 AM

3. Romney and Obama are polling by the minute – far, far more often and more accurately than the professional pollsters. Which one of them looks frightened to you? Me too.

The War Planner on September 11, 2012 at 11:04 AM

Next week when the “professional” pollsters show a tie or Romney slightly up, watch how the trolls and concerned-consevative trolls talk about problems with sampling, even with Dems oversampled.

oldroy on September 11, 2012 at 11:09 AM

I’d look for Iowa first, then maybe Colorado and/or Wisconsin. I think North Carolina is a likely Romney at this point. It will be close, but the map is just as difficult for Obama as it is for Romney – might be even worse for Obama when the polls “tighten” or show a “trend” in the last couple weeks before election.

oldroy on September 11, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Iowa is unpredictable since they love their ethanol subsidies. Colorado I’m worried may be too far gone with a bunch of California rejects infecting that state. It’ll be closer than in 2008, but Obama won big there, so Romney may have too much ground to make up. I definitely think Wisconsin is in play though. Both Ryan on the ticket and the success of Scott Walker should help get Republicans to the polls. North Carolina won’t be close. Romney will win that state handily.

Doughboy on September 11, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Maybe Republicans are too Eastwooded to get all the way through a phone call without forgetting what they are doing and hanging up the phone.

tommyhawk on September 11, 2012 at 11:07 AM

You not only took the blue pill, you took a whole handful of them didn’t you…

SWalker on September 11, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Polls aren’t skewed nutbag. They call people, people answer and tell them what they think. It’s not a plot, it’s a methodology. Maybe Republicans are too Eastwooded to get all the way through a phone call without forgetting what they are doing and hanging up the phone.

tommyhawk on September 11, 2012 at 11:07 AM

This is literally too stupid to dignify with an actual response.

Red Cloud on September 11, 2012 at 11:10 AM

tommyhawk on September 11, 2012 at 11:07 AM

Starting to show your frustration already. I’d bet you’ll have a full meltdown within a couple weeks.

oldroy on September 11, 2012 at 11:10 AM

Doughboy on September 11, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Virginia for Romney?

oldroy on September 11, 2012 at 11:12 AM

Doughboy on September 11, 2012 at 11:09 AM

So it will all come down to Wisconsin and Ohio. I’ll bet the phone are burning up in Ohio.

oldroy on September 11, 2012 at 11:13 AM

Every time one of these new polls comes out, I feel echoes of 1980… specifically how my gut felt that the nation was sick of Carter, and yet how all summer the polls didn’t seem to reflect it.

No matter what the polls are saying, I have the same strong gut feeling this year – that this nation, as a whole, is sick of 0bama.

The disconnect between the polls and the sense I have of an angry nation is identical.

cane_loader on September 11, 2012 at 11:15 AM

I want to see the Humpbot vs Melting Bunny poll.. Only then will I know how to vote…

thread winner for me.

gerrym51 on September 11, 2012 at 11:16 AM

Polls, smools…meh…

Mutts for Mitt all agree …
Better in the crate than on the plate.

timberline on September 11, 2012 at 11:17 AM

Might as well post this here.

steebo77′s Daily Swing State Report - September 11, 2012

State / Rolling Average / Latest Poll / Electoral Votes
Indiana / Romney +15.7% / Jul 31 / 11
Montana / Romney +15.3% / Aug 20 / 3
Georgia / Romney +11.5% / May 22 / 16
Arizona / Romney +10.1% / Jul 24 / 11
Missouri / Romney +6.6% / Aug 28 / 10
North Carolina / Romney +3.0% / Sep 8 / 15
Florida / Romney +1.5% / Sep 2 / 29
National (tracking only) / Obama +0.2% / Sep 9 / NA
National (w/ tracking) / Obama +0.6% / Sep 9 / NA
Iowa / Obama +1.2% / Aug 24 / 6
Ohio / Obama +1.3% / Sep 8 / 18
Virginia / Obama +1.3% / Aug 23 / 13
Colorado / Obama +2.3% / Sep 1 / 9
National (w/o tracking) / Obama +2.3% / Sep 9 / NA
Nevada / Obama +2.6% / Aug 24 / 6
Wisconsin / Obama +2.6% / Aug 18 / 10
New Hampshire / Obama +3.1% / Aug 10 / 4
Michigan / Obama +3.5% / Sep 1 / 16
Pennsylvania / Obama +7.2% / Aug 22 / 20
Oregon / Obama +7.4% / Jun 22 / 7
Minnesota / Obama +7.5% / Jul 18 / 10
New Mexico / Obama +8.4% / Sep 4 / 5
Connecticut / Obama +8.9% / Aug 24 / 7
New Jersey / Obama +10.9% / Aug 30 / 14
Maine / Obama +13.0% / Jun 22 / 4
Washington / Obama +14.4% / Sep 8 / 12

steebo77 on September 11, 2012 at 11:17 AM

And yet when Allahpundit shows up later this afternoon, he’ll find those numbers have flipped.

vityas on September 11, 2012 at 11:17 AM

Jersey, here! I don’t now a single person who voted for Obama in 2008 that plans to vote for him again. Not a single person. Even my liberal friends are disgusted. A few are small business owners and Obama really pi$$ed a lot of people off with his infamous ” you didn’t build that” commment.

lostinjrz on September 11, 2012 at 11:18 AM

Please.

NJ is lost. We keep hearing about the finicky voters and how Christie, a Republican, got elected.

The type of people that voted for Christie are the same people who will come out for Obama in droves.

It’s all about their self interest and NJ had monumental issues not being fixed. Christie offered a fresh break from the likes of Corzine who disappointed the electorate (which curiously awarded him several terms). He has delivered, which strangely gave voters a better personal outlook, which will in turn give them false comfort in voting for Mr. Obama.

Chalk that up as an relatively easy win for Obama. A smaller margin than last time, but there are still those “Corzine”, self-destructive voters out there willing to give Obama another bite at the apple. That way he can throw it at us this time. Then when we are in total collapse, New Jerseyans can say “whad da heck happened”.

Marcus Traianus on September 11, 2012 at 11:18 AM

Virginia for Romney?

So it will all come down to Wisconsin and Ohio. I’ll bet the phone are burning up in Ohio.

oldroy on September 11, 2012 at 11:12 AM

I think Virginia will go for Romney. It’s a traditionally reddish state and went for McDonnell by 17 points in 2009 which was at least in part an anti-Obama vote. It could very well come down to Virginia and Ohio. Romney has to win those states(I’m assuming Florida will go for him). If he does, Obama can still win in a squeaker, but he can’t afford to lose an other states. Even New Hampshire going for Romney would do him in.

Doughboy on September 11, 2012 at 11:19 AM

Tommyhawk,

You seem to be a fairly bright fellow. I suggest you buy some real estate in Chicago, since the value is expected to go up a bit when Obama arrives there in January.

Rovin on September 11, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Gumby and stupid

wargamer6 on September 11, 2012 at 10:48 AM

You should not repeat yourself.

bayview on September 11, 2012 at 11:21 AM

New Mexico looks interesting as well.

SouthernGent on September 11, 2012 at 11:27 AM

51 – 44 percent among New Jersey likely voters, who say the president will do a better job on Medicare and health care

LOL.

Obama cut $716 Billion Dollars from Medicare spending in order to fund Obamacare. Even the CBO now admits that Obamacare is going to cause everybody’s health care costs to go up more than they would have gone up if Obamacare had never been passed.

I’m really curious to know how these voters think Obama’s cutting 3/4 of a Trillion Dollars from Medicare spending is going to be good for Medicare patients.

The fact that so many people think Obama is better on issues like Medicare and health care in general shows how ineffective Romney’s messaging has been, and how effective the MSM has been at misinforming low-information voters.

AZCoyote on September 11, 2012 at 11:30 AM

Jersey, here! I don’t now a single person who voted for Obama in 2008 that plans to vote for him again. Not a single person. Even my liberal friends are disgusted. A few are small business owners and Obama really pi$$ed a lot of people off with his infamous ” you didn’t build that” commment.

although i think it will be narrower Jersey will go for Obama. just too many residents on the dole.

gerrym51 on September 11, 2012 at 11:30 AM

New Mexico looks interesting as well.

SouthernGent on September 11, 2012 at 11:27 AM

Don’t count on it at all. I’d say Obama by 3 on election day.

oldroy on September 11, 2012 at 11:31 AM

Ed. Check your feeds. The Ramirez article was from Aug 27th. Not today.

kevinkristy on September 11, 2012 at 11:33 AM

The fact that so many people think Obama is better on issues like Medicare and health care in general shows how ineffective Romney’s messaging has been, and how effective the MSM has been at misinforming low-information voters.

AZCoyote on September 11, 2012 at 11:30 AM

Yet Romney polls 7-8% better than what the 2008 result was? One of thise things is not like the other. Support Obama all you want by running Romney down. But he is doing better than McCain. Next week he’ll be tied or ahead in the national polls and you’ll be saying the same thing. It really gets tiresome and boring.

If there is nothing to look forward to and all is lost, why are you here?

oldroy on September 11, 2012 at 11:35 AM

The disconnect between the polls and the sense I have of an angry nation is identical.

cane_loader on September 11, 2012 at 11:15 AM

This. This is why we should be upbeat. Not only that Romney will be tied in mid-September with an incumbent Dem, but that the tone and mood of the whole nation is not what it was 4 years ago.

How many upbeat Dems have any of us run into lately? I can’t think of one. Most are angry as hell, even if they are still planning on voting for Obama. The model for this election is Carter. Not Clinton. The Dems know it. We should be happy about it.

oldroy on September 11, 2012 at 11:42 AM

Every time one of these new polls comes out, I feel echoes of 1980… specifically how my gut felt that the nation was sick of Carter, and yet how all summer the polls didn’t seem to reflect it.

No matter what the polls are saying, I have the same strong gut feeling this year – that this nation, as a whole, is sick of 0bama.

The disconnect between the polls and the sense I have of an angry nation is identical.

cane_loader on September 11, 2012 at 11:15 AM

My sentiments, exactly.

In order for Obama to win this election one must assume that the voters will overlook the state of the economy.

One must also assume that they are willing to “give him more time” to double down on the same stuff he has been doing.

People voted for Obama the first time because they were worked into a froth of anger toward Bush by negative coverage and anxious to believe the hope and change and start a new era of racial peace and harmony.

Has there been harmony? Peace? Economic recovery? No. There has not. Instead there has been acrimony, race baiting, mean-spiritedness, and as close to economic collapse as most people living have seen in this country.

And gas is close to 4.00 freaking bucks a gallon!!!! It was less than half that in 2008 and the media acted like it was the apocalypse. And even though the talking heads are careful not to mention it now, it’s not as if no one has noticed on their own without being told. And have you bought groceries lately?

Yeah people notice that everyone they know is working 3 part-time jobs, on food stamps and the husbands have had to go on disability because they haven’t been able to get a job in 3 years.

And what did Obama say to a nation waiting to hear what he was going to do with 4 More Years! “The election of 2008 was not about Me it was about You!” He BLAMED US! We are not worthy of his benevolent rule! Even Jon Stewart caught that vibe from him.

At this point, a return to the Carter years would be a best case scenario and no one is buying what he is selling. I don’t care what the pollsters say. They same the same thing every year.

Lily on September 11, 2012 at 11:43 AM

New libturd slimestream media strategy: let’s keep Obama’s greatest hits polls in reserve and when we want to really scare the righties and we got nothin’ else, we’ll release them well after the fact–no one will notice.

stukinIL4now on September 11, 2012 at 11:44 AM

Don’t forget that when Christie won against Jon Corzine the election was about failed leadership and enormous debt that was threatening to destroy New Jersey.

This election is the same on a national scale to most New Jersey voters. Romney could win in NJ just like Christie did!

Natebo on September 11, 2012 at 11:46 AM

If there is nothing to look forward to and all is lost, why are you here?

oldroy on September 11, 2012 at 11:35 AM

I never said all is lost. I’ve said repeatedly (and earlier today on another thread) that I still believe Romney will win. My comment here was expressing my frustration that Romney is not doing a better job informing voters about Obama’s abymsal record on Medicare and health care in general.

Get a grip.

AZCoyote on September 11, 2012 at 11:48 AM

oldroy on September 11, 2012 at 11:35 AM

I never said all is lost. I’ve said repeatedly (and earlier today on another thread) that I still believe Romney will win. My comment here was expressing my frustration that Romney is not doing a better job informing voters about Obama’s abymsal record on Medicare and health care in general.

Get a grip.

AZCoyote on September 11, 2012 at 11:48 AM

..with the greatest of respect, AZ, for we all know you are not a troll nor a bed-wetter, you can help R&R by going here. Won’t cost you a dime and you get to plead their case to other voters in swing states.

The War Planner on September 11, 2012 at 11:59 AM

Get a grip.

AZCoyote on September 11, 2012 at 11:48 AM

So you want the voters of New Jersey to understand that Obama raped medicare? Obama could run his own ad and say he raped medicare and it wouldn’t matter. Yet Romney is up 7-8% from the 2008 result. Sounds like some messaging got through.

oldroy on September 11, 2012 at 12:00 PM

The disconnect between the polls and the sense I have of an angry nation is identical.

cane_loader on September 11, 2012 at 11:15 AM

..ditto. Nailed it. I went to the polling booth seething, determined to toss Mr Malaise out on his ass.

Today, my anger and motivation is easily ten times what it was in 1980.

The War Planner on September 11, 2012 at 12:01 PM

Jersey, here! I don’t now a single person who voted for Obama in 2008 that plans to vote for him again. Not a single person. Even my liberal friends are disgusted. A few are small business owners and Obama really pi$$ed a lot of people off with his infamous ” you didn’t build that” commment.

lostinjrz on September 11, 2012 at 11:18 AM

Yes, there are Republican towns in New Jersey, and a lot of them. But they all get cancelled out by the likes of Newark, Camden, Trenton, Patterson, Jersey City, Atlantic City, etc…, where Obama will win by over 70 points.

milcus on September 11, 2012 at 12:06 PM

Lily on September 11, 2012 at 11:43 AM

..Lily, I appropriated your comment for my blog — with attribution, of course. Extremely well said, ma’am!

The War Planner on September 11, 2012 at 12:12 PM

To heck with the Q-poll, where’s PPP’s?

socalcon on September 11, 2012 at 12:13 PM

Anyone who thinks New Jersey is in play is kidding himself. The last Republican to carry NJ was Bush 41 in 1988 (Reagan carried it twice). The state’s electorate has become considerably more Democratic since then.

If NJ were seriously in play, Romney would be sweeping all of the swing states, plus a few others, anyway and running away with 400+ electoral college votes. This is one of the by-products of blue states chasing out productive people: the states become more blue. For various reasons, the election of Christie in 2009 was an anomaly.

Travis Bickle on September 11, 2012 at 12:19 PM

Travis Bickle on September 11, 2012 at 12:19 PM

..your concern is noted. Thank you. By the way, your work called. They said that you forgot to clean the back seats off after your shift.

The War Planner on September 11, 2012 at 1:06 PM

states chasing out productive people: the states become more blue. For various reasons, the election of Christie in 2009 was an anomaly.

Travis Bickle on September 11, 2012 at 12:19 PM

We have more than plenty of productive people paying LOTS of taxes…it’s the Corzine Democrats who can’t find ways to spend it quickly enough. That includes the unions and the unions helped put Christie in office by their very nature. We are tired of paying for other people’s goldplated healthcare plans and pensions.

NJ Red on September 11, 2012 at 1:13 PM

The War Planner on September 11, 2012 at 12:12 PM

Thank you sir, I am honored.

Although in real life I don’t look so much like a young lady in freak-out mode.

Think Mara Liasson sternly looking over the top of her reading glasses. Very scary.

Lily on September 11, 2012 at 1:14 PM

milcus on September 11, 2012 at 12:06 PM

I don’t seriously think NJ is in play, however, Obarfy won by 15 pts last time and is leading now with 7??? Ummmm, this isn’t a swing state.

NJ Red on September 11, 2012 at 1:25 PM

Marcus Traianus on September 11, 2012 at 11:18 AM

Corzine had ONE term as gov.

NJ Red on September 11, 2012 at 1:43 PM

So I guess the bottom line in all of this is that Romney is doing far better than Reagan 1980 , Bush 88, Clinton 92, and Bush 2000 were?

oldroy on September 11, 2012 at 1:45 PM

The more I see of these scary polls, the more I know this race will be won by turnout. The MSM is doing its best to depress republican enthusiasm adn therefore fundraising and turnout. 2 weeks ago we were flying high, which is when all this started. So…

BUCK UP!!!

We can and will win!!!

LASue on September 11, 2012 at 2:45 PM

I don’t seriously think NJ is in play, however, Obarfy won by 15 pts last time and is leading now with 7??? Ummmm, this isn’t a swing state.

NJ Red on September 11, 2012 at 1:25 PM

That is a fair point, and if I were Romney, I would do an ad blitz in both NJ and CT to see if I could get some traction. Link Obama to Corzine and say Romney is like Christie, and you might get the lead down to 3-4. If that happens, Obama will have to spend money in a very expensive NY market. And for a campaign already in bad shape financially, that might force Obama to abandon a state like Florida, Wisconsin, North Carolina and/or Iowa to save those 2 states.

So, at worst Romney forces Obama to spend money and loses (along with Kryllos and McMahon), but what if the extra attention causes either Kryllos or McMahon to win a seat that Democrats think is safe, or even have a clean sweep with those 2 and Romney winning?

Again, attacking in NJ and CT makes sense to me for many reasons. However, at the end of the day, it is just too hard for Republican to win in NJ.

milcus on September 11, 2012 at 4:07 PM

milcus on September 11, 2012 at 4:07 PM

…(catching up)…I like your thinking!

KOOLAID2 on September 11, 2012 at 8:29 PM