The reason the election is closer than you think is probably you

posted at 10:01 pm on September 10, 2012 by Karl

A subtext of the Allahpundit’s blogging today was a question that seems to be vexing the right: Why is this election close? Specifically, why is this election close given the state of the economy?

And yes, needless to say, it is troubling that a president might be excused for a disastrous record partly because it’s disastrous, but that’s Hopenchange for you. Some swing voters foolishly believed the myth four years ago and a critical chunk of them will be reluctant to admit that they were suckered. (That’s why Romney’s been careful to frame his attacks on O as disappointment, not anger: As an advisor told Byron York recently, they don’t want to be seen as rubbing disillusioned Obama voters’ faces in their mistake.) They’re looking for reasons to think they made a good decision in voting for him the first time, and “no one could have fixed this economy” fits the bill nicely. None of which is to say that Romney can’t win anyway; there are lots and lots and lots of Republican attack ads to come. It’s simply to say that the biggest weapon in his campaign arsenal might not be as big as we think, which might help answer Powerline’s question of why this election, which should be a cakewalk, is so close.

A few hours later:

You could make the same point this way: Just how high would unemployment have to be to make this an easy win for Romney and the GOP? Ten percent? Higher? Or, paradoxically, would higher unemployment rates somehow further absolve Bambi of culpability? A million variables inform a voter’s choice but there must be some hypothetical degree of economic lethargy that would make a qualified challenger — and Romney is qualified, whatever else you think of him — a prohibitive favorite. How much pain are voters willing to suffer before turning the dial?

The Allahpundit is only one of many conservative-to-libertarian pundits asking variations on this basic question — and people’s underlying theories or assumptions about the answer colors the way they think about the entire campaign, e.g., what should Team Romney be doing in this environment, etc.

However, answering the basic question probably requires that you look in a mirror. If you are reading this, you are almost certainly someone with a particular political viewpoint and a general functional party affiliation. Indeed, most of you are probably right of center and tend to vote GOP (although some of you are liberal/Democratic and checking out the opposition or just plain trolling). And these basic facts about you probably color your perception of the economy.

For example, take a look at the results from last month’s Gallup Economic Confidence Index:

Most of you will look at that and rightly scoff at the delusional Democrats. But it is also apparent that Independents are not as pessimistic about the economy as Republicans are, either.

This is not a new dynamic. Consider the following from Lee Drutman circa 2010:

To understand the strength of partisan distortion of objective economic facts, consider the following: Between 1980 and 1988, inflation fell from about 14 percent to about 4 percent. But when asked what had happened to inflation over Reagan’s two terms, more than half of “strong” Democrats insisted that inflation had gotten somewhat or much worse over that period, whereas only 8 percent said it had gotten better, according to an analysis by Larry Bartels, a professor of politics at Princeton. For “strong” Republicans, it was pretty much the exact opposite.

“Partisan predispositions exerted a powerful impact on perceptions of ‘objective’ economic events,” wrote Bartels, “not only in the extreme categories of ‘strong’ Democrats and Republicans but over the whole range of the party identification scale.”

Or consider what happened 2006, when Democrats took back control of Congress. Alan Gerber and Gregory A. Huber, political scientists at Yale, found that shortly after the election, Democratic voters reported significantly higher optimism about their economic future and accordingly said they planned more consumption, as compared with just before the election. Republican voters, meanwhile, turned pessimistic and said they planned to tighten their budgets.

If you don’t like Slate, consider Michael Barone, on day three of the Obama adminsitration:

Americans’ views of the economy are increasingly a function of voting behavior or party loyalty, rather than the other way around. The most succinct evidence of this comes from a January 2006 report by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press entitled “Economy Now Seen Through Partisan Prism.” As the Pew report notes, during the1992 campaign year and up through 1994 there was a partisan divide on the economy, with about 20 percent of Republicans and less than 10 percent of Democrats rating it as excellent or good. From 1995 to 1998, with a Democratic president and a visibly aggressive Republican Congress, Democrats and Republicans gave similar ratings to the economy. From 1998 to 2000, Democrats were somewhat more positive about the economy than Republicans, at a time when economic growth was vibrant and inflation low.

Then, after the election of George W. Bush, the divergence between the two parties expanded into a chasm. It began to widen during the recession of March-November 2001, and it widened much more as the economy recovered and resumed low-inflation growth. By early 2006, a time of vibrant economic growth, 56 percent of Republicans said the economy was excellent or good, while only 28 percent of independents and 23 percent of Democrats agreed. We have seen similar responses in the years since, although the percentage of Republicans rating the economy positively has dropped somewhat since the subprime mortgage crisis and the decline in housing prices during the second half of 2007. As the Pew Research Center points out, Democrats and Republicans of similar income levels gave sharply different ratings of the economy.

In July, political scientists were busy explaining to Democrats like consultant Noam Schieber that the economic models used to try to explain past elections (and misused to forecast them) tended to suggest a close election favoring Obama on balance. The economy is weak enough to be a drag on Obama’s reelection, but maybe not so much of a drag as to hand it to Romney by itself. That’s probably part of the reason Romney picked Ryan as his veep.

Of course, even the Allahpundit noted Obama’s current poll bounce already looks to be leveling off in the Gallup tracker, so the anxiety on the right is likely overdone, just as the establishment media would prefer. Nevertheless, anyone analyzing the 2012 campaign ought to start from the realization that the economy is probably not bad enough to automatically doom Obama. Conversely, people should recognize that Romney may not be as unlikeable or inept as some seem to believe, even if his campaign may need to do even more now to drive the agenda.

This post was promoted from GreenRoom to HotAir.com.
To see the comments on the original post, look here.


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MY EYES!

Bishop on September 10, 2012 at 10:02 PM

By Karl? Karl Rove?

Lanceman on September 10, 2012 at 10:02 PM

Now Hiring…

something I haven’t seen since……

Bush was President….

Electrongod on September 10, 2012 at 10:04 PM

Nevertheless, anyone analyzing the 2012 campaign ought to start from the realization that the economy is probably not bad enough to automatically doom Obama. Conversely, people should recognize that Romney may not be as unlikeable or inept as some seem to believe, even if his campaign may need to do even more now to drive the agenda.

So…
it only comes down to which party is more energized?

AZgranny on September 10, 2012 at 10:05 PM

“The” Allahpundit, I presume?

RedRedRice on September 10, 2012 at 10:05 PM

The reason the election is close is because we have a drab party candidate instead of a real conservative. Many of us don’t see much difference between Obama and Romney.

I, for one, am still planning to sit on the sideline until Romney declares categorically that he is going to cut spending and restore our freedom to choose medical providers. Last I heard, he said he’s keeping Obamacare, and he’s NEVER said he’s going to shrink spending.

If neither one will address the problems we’re facing, why should I care which one is president?

Wino on September 10, 2012 at 10:05 PM

Can we stop this closeness stupidity? Tea partiers are at least a third of the voters and all the ones I know are cranky get-off-my-lawn types.

They don’t do telephone polls. They do vote. Polls are meaningless.

platypus on September 10, 2012 at 10:07 PM

“The Allahpundit is only one of many conservative-to-libertarian pundits”

That is exactly why Mitt is going ot lose. Anyone here who considers “athiestpundit” to be a conservative resides on another planet. Until we conservatives can call a spade a spade then we are going to lose.

Eph on September 10, 2012 at 10:07 PM

Why is this election close? Specifically, why is this election close given the state of the economy?

The answer is right in front of your nose,you will never find that answer if you are afraid to even speak it.

SWalker on September 10, 2012 at 10:08 PM

So…
it only comes down to which party is more energized?

AZgranny on September 10, 2012 at 10:05 PM

I saw the energy in the second day of the DNC convention…
you know..
When they voted not to have God in their platform……
Then booed when God was let in…

Their energy is actually turning their members away…

Electrongod on September 10, 2012 at 10:09 PM

Now Hiring…

something I haven’t seen since……

Bush was President….

Electrongod on September 10, 2012 at 10:04 PM

I miss that man.

Lanceman on September 10, 2012 at 10:09 PM

“The” Allahpundit, I presume?

RedRedRice on September 10, 2012 at 10:05 PM

Nope… Eeyorepundit…

SWalker on September 10, 2012 at 10:09 PM

PS. The US economy is collapsing, and neither candidate has a plan to stop it. Social conservatives are in love with Romney. We fiscal conservatives don’t have a dog in this fight, to my eyes. I could care less about abortion, gay marriage, or … look, another squirrel!

Wino on September 10, 2012 at 10:10 PM

A subtext of the Allahpundit’s blogging today was a question that seems to be vexing the right: Why is this election close? Specifically, why is this election close given the state of the economy?

I don’t think it’s currently close. Romney is up by 8, and Republicans have the enthusiasm advantage. Every D+ poll is absolute garbage. Anyone pooping their pants over a D+5 poll or worse is a lifelong glass empty type of person anyways. People like AP, who even Eyeored over the Eastwood speech, can’t be helped unless they want to be helped.

NotCoach on September 10, 2012 at 10:10 PM

So…
it only comes down to which party is more energized?

AZgranny on September 10, 2012 at 10:05 PM

Depends on how you mean it. Dems usually have a turnout advantage in a presidential election, but most polls show Indies breaking for Romney (excluding some “bounce” polls). This is why Obama has been pursuing a base turnout strategy for most of a year now.

Karl on September 10, 2012 at 10:11 PM

Now Hiring…

something I haven’t seen since……

Bush was President….

Electrongod on September 10, 2012 at 10:04 PM

Oh, I see those things alot-but then again, I’m in Texas.

annoyinglittletwerp on September 10, 2012 at 10:11 PM

The Allahpundit is only one of many conservative-to-libertarian pundits

Ha ha ha! Karl made a funny.

(Just kidding, AP.)

Doughboy on September 10, 2012 at 10:11 PM

Oh, I see those things alot-but then again, I’m in Texas.

annoyinglittletwerp on September 10, 2012 at 10:11 PM

Send them back to California where they came from… ;p

SWalker on September 10, 2012 at 10:12 PM

Here we go again with another attempt to blame the base, specifically the conservative base, should Romney lose.

bgibbs1000 on September 10, 2012 at 10:14 PM

Okay, “Karl”. So the economy isn’t as bad as we think, huh? And as we blah blah blah about everything else, the debt clock tumbles faster and faster. Isn’t this the kind of thinking that got CA and Europe into the trouble they’re now in? When are we gonna wake up?

RobertMN on September 10, 2012 at 10:14 PM

There is one guy working his socks off, fundraising nearly every day, giving speech after speech to win this and it ain’t Romney. Conservatives believe in the innate good sense of the American people while liberals don’t and this means they know they can be fooled. That’s why they work and work to win elections by fair means or foul and use their advantage when they get it e.g. ObamaCare. They want permanent change. Unfortunately it appears that stopping them requires work too. We just can’t wait until things get so bad that people embrace us out of desperation e.g. Thatcher and Reagan in the 1970′s. In 2012, we’re not there yet. Things aren’t bad enough. Sadly enough the country has changed too. Changing it back requires work. It’s not clear that Romney realizes this.

breffnian on September 10, 2012 at 10:15 PM

How much pain are voters willing to suffer before turning the dial?

Ask the voters who elected FDR 3 times.

astonerii on September 10, 2012 at 10:15 PM

Byron York is a F*cking moron! Mitt better get the idiots out of his advisory board and slap the Obumbler where it hurts…truth! You can never beat the truth, especially when the Obumbler runs from it every waking minute. You watch, Mid October the polls won’t be able to be manipulated anymore and Romney/Ryan will be up by 20 points! The Media can only lie for this dipsh*t for so long and then they’ll try and gain some credibility..LMAO!

Tbone McGraw on September 10, 2012 at 10:15 PM

Send them back to California where they came from… ;p

SWalker on September 10, 2012 at 10:12 PM

They don’t want to live with you. They like me better!

annoyinglittletwerp on September 10, 2012 at 10:15 PM

The reason the election is closer than you think is probably you

So, it isn’t you, it’s me?

Fallon on September 10, 2012 at 10:16 PM

Here we go again with another attempt to blame the base, specifically the conservative base, should Romney lose.

And if Republicans take control of Congress? What happens then?

RobertMN on September 10, 2012 at 10:16 PM

SWalker on September 10, 2012 at 10:12 PM

They don’t want to live with you. They like me better!

annoyinglittletwerp on September 10, 2012 at 10:15 PM

They’re just confused… first timeout of the big city, and they got lost… Send them home and all will be forgiven… ;p

SWalker on September 10, 2012 at 10:17 PM

Indeed, most of you are probably right of center and tend to vote GOP (although some of you are liberal/Democratic and checking out the opposition or just plain trolling).

…ok!…NOW you’re right!

KOOLAID2 on September 10, 2012 at 10:17 PM

And there is no bias in the legacy media..?

d1carter on September 10, 2012 at 10:18 PM

Send them back to California where they came from… ;p

SWalker on September 10, 2012 at 10:12 PM

The unions would never approve.

Electrongod on September 10, 2012 at 10:19 PM

“The” Allahpundit? Not to be confused with that Allahpundit?

Rational Thought on September 10, 2012 at 10:19 PM

And if Republicans take control of Congress? What happens then?

RobertMN on September 10, 2012 at 10:16 PM

They spend like drunken sailors again, just like last time.

Wino on September 10, 2012 at 10:19 PM

The reason the election is closer than you think is probably you

…well then!…FLUKE ME!

KOOLAID2 on September 10, 2012 at 10:20 PM

…well then!…FLUKE ME!

KOOLAID2 on September 10, 2012 at 10:20 PM

Now you’ve done it..

Biden is on the prowl…

So is Clinton….

Electrongod on September 10, 2012 at 10:21 PM

It is a coin toss election. Do I vote for the Liberal or the Liberal lite? At this point, when I go to the poll to vote, I am going to flip a coin at the door. Heads I vote for Romney, Tails I vote for Obama. Or, I could just not waste my time and gas, and stay home. Either one in the WH means we will still see big/bigger gubmint, more spending, Nationalized HC, Amnesty for 40 million illegals, higher taxes, crony capitalism,corruption,and the same lousy politicians we have seen for decades.

Since not much will change with having Obama or Romney in the WH, I will benefit by staying home.

they lie on September 10, 2012 at 10:21 PM

So what you are saying, Karl — if that is your real name –

What you are saying is that progressives live in a fantasy world that bears striking discontinuity with the observable one that the rest of us occupy, and are likely to imagine any reality they would like and report it when asked.

If that’s not true, you didn’t demonstrate it. You would need to demonstrate that conservatives are actually wrong in their assessments, and wrong as often as progressives are. Til then, I’m just going to assume, safely I think, that your whole analysis means:

1. Progressives believe what they’d like;

2. Conservatives have a clearer understanding of the real world;

3. Spanking is often a good thing.

That last bit just occurred to me. It might not be related.

Axe on September 10, 2012 at 10:22 PM

Send them back to California where they came from… ;p

SWalker on September 10, 2012 at 10:12 PM

The unions would never approve.

Electrongod on September 10, 2012 at 10:19 PM

What the Unions don’t know…. ;p

SWalker on September 10, 2012 at 10:22 PM

You could make the same point this way: Just how high would unemployment have to be to make this an easy win for Romney and the GOP? Ten percent? Higher? Or, paradoxically, would higher unemployment rates somehow further absolve Bambi of culpability? A million variables inform a voter’s choice but there must be some hypothetical degree of economic lethargy that would make a qualified challenger — and Romney is qualified, whatever else you think of him — a prohibitive favorite. How much pain are voters willing to suffer before turning the dial?

I wonder how many people under 30 read this and were clueless as to what “turning the dial” meant. :P

TMOverbeck on September 10, 2012 at 10:22 PM

SWalker on September 10, 2012 at 10:17 PM

forget it. Already filed the papers for full custody w/ no visitation.

annoyinglittletwerp on September 10, 2012 at 10:23 PM

Regardless, Romney will be the next President of the United States.

Bmore on September 10, 2012 at 10:23 PM

they lie on September 10, 2012 at 10:21 PM

lookie-a new moby!

annoyinglittletwerp on September 10, 2012 at 10:24 PM

Most of you will look at that and rightly scoff at the delusional Democrats. But it is also apparent that Independents are not as pessimistic about the economy as Republicans are, either.

Republicans are more pessimistic because they are the ones paying the bills. Democrats are more confident because the checks keep coming so they honestly ask…what’s all the griping about?

sharrukin on September 10, 2012 at 10:24 PM

I am going to flip a coin at the door. Heads I vote for Romney, Tails I vote for Obama.

they lie on September 10, 2012 at 10:21 PM

Let me send you a two headed coin..

Seriously…

Electrongod on September 10, 2012 at 10:24 PM

Oh, if Romney loses, I’m blaming every one of you Eeyores, ABRs, MOBYs Paultards and whatever the heck Floating Rock is for playing along with the MSM/Obama agenda instead of fighting it –know that. As I’ve been reminding people all day, there are two paths: America or Occupy. If you’re not in the bunker for America, you’re with them.

Dark Star on September 10, 2012 at 10:24 PM

lookie-a new moby!

annoyinglittletwerp on September 10, 2012 at 10:24 PM

You lie, boy!

Lanceman on September 10, 2012 at 10:25 PM

SWalker on September 10, 2012 at 10:17 PM

forget it. Already filed the papers for full custody w/ no visitation.

annoyinglittletwerp on September 10, 2012 at 10:23 PM

Well, that’s not very nice…

SWalker on September 10, 2012 at 10:25 PM

OT: DOD buying up Chevy Volts…oh yeah!

d1carter on September 10, 2012 at 10:26 PM

Then booed when God was let in…

Their energy is actually turning their members away…

Electrongod on September 10, 2012 at 10:09 PM

Yup.
I should think that apalled a lot of the dem base. I also think the conservatives are a lot more fired up this year and that may have be the tipping point towards a republican victory!

AZgranny on September 10, 2012 at 10:26 PM

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/sep/10/govt-officially-tops-1-trillion-deficits/

In other news, we’re still spending faster than we’re earning. Neither Obama nor Romney had any comments, except, “Gimmegimmegimme.” It was unclear which of the two said it.

Wino on September 10, 2012 at 10:27 PM

If Obama wins prepare yourselves or one of two fates:
1. Slavery as host or parasite.
2. Our cold civil war going hot.

Some will opt for 1, others will prepare for 2.

Why? Because real conservatives won’t abide 1.

Charlemagne on September 10, 2012 at 10:28 PM

Hmm, my post at 10:24 was supposed to be in response to someone & it didn’t cut & paste & now I can’t find the post I wanted to respond to.

{shrug} Sentiment still applies.

Dark Star on September 10, 2012 at 10:28 PM

I think the media has something to do with it too. Too many people get their news from the daily show and the MSM played up the hurricane and dogged the republican convention. That said Mitt has just started spending ad money in swing states and the ads Ive seen have been pretty darn good.

ldbgcoleman on September 10, 2012 at 10:28 PM

It is a coin toss election. Do I vote for the Liberal or the Liberal lite? At this point, when I go to the poll to vote, I am going to flip a coin at the door. Heads I vote for Romney, Tails I vote for Obama. Or, I could just not waste my time and gas, and stay home. Either one in the WH means we will still see big/bigger gubmint, more spending, Nationalized HC, Amnesty for 40 million illegals, higher taxes, crony capitalism,corruption,and the same lousy politicians we have seen for decades.

Since not much will change with having Obama or Romney in the WH, I will benefit by staying home.

they lie on September 10, 2012 at 10:21 PM

This is why we have to keep the Tea Party efforts strong. This is why we all have to stay active at the grassroots level and vote integrity over establishment. If enough of us send serious reformers to Congress, then you’ll get a serious effort to reform the budget. And Mitt would have to sign it or risk a serious backlash.

TMOverbeck on September 10, 2012 at 10:28 PM

Regardless, Romney will be the next President of the United States.

Bmore on September 10, 2012 at 10:23 PM

You must mean irregardless.

*hehe. snarks Twerp*

SparkPlug on September 10, 2012 at 10:29 PM

Dark Star on September 10, 2012 at 10:24 PM

What ever.

astonerii on September 10, 2012 at 10:29 PM

Oh, if Romney loses, I’m blaming every one of you Eeyores, ABRs, MOBYs Paultards and whatever the heck Floating Rock is for playing along with the MSM/Obama agenda instead of fighting it –know that.

Dark Star on September 10, 2012 at 10:24 PM

Conservatives have a name for when moderates blame them for everything under the sun…Thursday.

sharrukin on September 10, 2012 at 10:30 PM

Wino on September 10, 2012 at 10:27 PM

Another noob?
Bmore? SWalker? Electrogod?
could one of y’all find and plug the hole where the noobs are gettin’ in?

annoyinglittletwerp on September 10, 2012 at 10:30 PM

Okay, “Karl”. So the economy isn’t as bad as we think, huh? And as we blah blah blah about everything else, the debt clock tumbles faster and faster. Isn’t this the kind of thinking that got CA and Europe into the trouble they’re now in? When are we gonna wake up?

RobertMN on September 10, 2012 at 10:14 PM

Well, that’s putting words in my mouth. In fact, I have written repeatedly about the debt bomb. What I actually wrote today was not that things aren’t as bad as conservatives think, but that many voters think it’s less bad than we do, and thus the right cannot rely on the bad economy by itself to win.

Karl on September 10, 2012 at 10:30 PM

AnnoyingTwerp, though I don’t come here often, I’ve been here for over four years. Your hat is crooked. Move your hips to straighten it.

Wino on September 10, 2012 at 10:31 PM

I am going to flip a coin at the door. Heads I vote for Romney, Tails I vote for Obama.

they lie on September 10, 2012 at 10:21 PM

Save the energy on the toss. Pull the lever for 0. Go on, you know you want to.

Bmore on September 10, 2012 at 10:32 PM

If enough of us send serious reformers to Congress, then you’ll get a serious effort to reform the budget. And Mitt would have to sign it or risk a serious backlash.

Exactly. If Romney wins and a GOP Congress sends him a conservative bill, he’ll sign it. If Obama wins and gets the same bill, he’ll veto it.

And let’s not forget SCOTUS. There will probably be two vacancies next presidential term.

Charlemagne on September 10, 2012 at 10:32 PM

Most of you will look at that and rightly scoff at the delusional Democrats. But it is also apparent that Independents are not as pessimistic about the economy as Republicans are, either.

Republicans are more pessimistic because they are the ones paying the bills. Democrats are more confident because the checks keep coming so they honestly ask…what’s all the griping about?

sharrukin on September 10, 2012 at 10:24 PM

That suggests that the disparity is a simple observer “error” — the reports are different because the positions the observers occupy in the frame of reference are different.

… this might be the unifying model. If you could define the field in the right terms, you could position respondents … and if the field was mapped along my snarky (but not really snarky) truth/fantasy lines … you could see the whole political landscape … all at once.

PAPER

Axe on September 10, 2012 at 10:32 PM

In other news, we’re still spending faster than we’re earning. Neither Obama nor Romney had any comments, except, “Gimmegimmegimme.” It was unclear which of the two said it.

Wino on September 10, 2012 at 10:27 PM

Just that this current president promised one thing and did the other…

What was that?

Gimmegimmegimme

Romney is the current President……

Electrongod on September 10, 2012 at 10:33 PM

annoyinglittletwerp on September 10, 2012 at 10:30 PM

It’s Lancemans fault, I plug one he drills another one. Lol!

Bmore on September 10, 2012 at 10:34 PM

sharrukin on September 10, 2012 at 10:30 PM

Did you click on my link? Because that was for you, Mr. “purity.” Here, let me make it easier — go here.

Dark Star on September 10, 2012 at 10:34 PM

Romney is the current President……

Electrongod on September 10, 2012 at 10:33 PM

Whoa..
Isn’t the current president…

Is what I meant..

We all know who is the current president…

Electrongod on September 10, 2012 at 10:34 PM

Some swing voters foolishly believed the myth four years ago and a critical chunk of them will be reluctant to admit that they were suckered.

That also applies to a majority of the Democratic Party. Who wants to admit they got suckered by a used car salesman.

GarandFan on September 10, 2012 at 10:35 PM

Axe on September 10, 2012 at 10:32 PM

I don’t have a whole paper, but here’s a scatterplot or three.

Karl on September 10, 2012 at 10:36 PM

It’s Lancemans fault, I plug one he drills another one. Lol!

Bmore on September 10, 2012 at 10:34 PM

It’s cause he likes to razz the trolls. He gets bored when they aren’t any trolls so he let’s more in.

SparkPlug on September 10, 2012 at 10:36 PM

Did you click on my link? Because that was for you, Mr. “purity.” Here, let me make it easier — go here.

Dark Star on September 10, 2012 at 10:34 PM

No thanks.

Since those conservatives you claim are part of the ‘purity’ brigade were willing to back guys like Gingrich, Santorum, Perry and others, your claims of their unreasonable behavior falls flat.

What upsets you is that they are unwilling to back a cloned version of Obama simply because the GOP gave them their marching orders and the ungrateful louts didn’t march.

Boo hoo.

sharrukin on September 10, 2012 at 10:38 PM

I have two good friends and one wife that all will vote for Obama despite the first being laid off last week from job in the finance industry, the second has been underemployed and working in a service job for the past three years despite having been a manager in the grocery business and, most sadly, the third who has seen her private consulting business lose 25% of it’s clients over the summer.

They all really, truly believe an economic turnaround is just over the horizon and that ALL BAD THINGS are still the fault of The Evil Bush.

There is no amount o reason or plaintive pleading that will change their minds.

If Mittens ever thought he could get their votes, he’s on a fool’s errand.

Sorry, that’s just the tip of the iceberg…

Bruno Strozek on September 10, 2012 at 10:40 PM

It’s cause he likes to razz the trolls. He gets bored when they aren’t any trolls so he let’s more in.

SparkPlug on September 10, 2012 at 10:36 PM

He just needs to improve his game. Flirting with them and befriending them doesn’t work for me. You hear that Lanceman? Walk them!

Bmore on September 10, 2012 at 10:40 PM

A subtext of the Allahpundit’s blogging today was a question that seems to be vexing the right:

Meet the New Media, same as the Old Media.

Pillow-biting bed-wetters. Right here at good ol’ Hot Air. Get yer t-shirts! Just follow the pop-up.

Say, how ’bout them polls, eh? Y’all stay tuned, now, hear?

minnesoter on September 10, 2012 at 10:41 PM

By the way, the only reason this election is “close” is due to the color of skin. When people enter the voting booth color will fade and they will pick Romney/Ryan. During the polling they are just trying to avoid looking “racist”. This election will be a landslide! 68%-28% and the third party nut jobs will get a couple. On November 7th we’ll all be a bunch of racists and I can live with that. As long as Moo-Chelle and the Obubler are going back to Chicago on a C-130…No more Air Force One.

Tbone McGraw on September 10, 2012 at 10:41 PM

I guess Ron Paul would have ended this once and for all..

Electrongod on September 10, 2012 at 10:41 PM

Karl on September 10, 2012 at 10:36 PM

For partisans, there are basically two different worlds: when their party is the incumbent and when it is not. That’s why I present two separate lines in the plots for partisans. Within those worlds, the economy has only a mild impact—except among Republicans when their party is the incumbent, when the relationship is flat.

LOL — Holy cow. I might actually do something serious here in a minute. There really are a couple of weird questions that might actually be answerable.

Thanks for linking that.

Axe on September 10, 2012 at 10:43 PM

IBD/TIPP poll (very accurate pollster through the years) out today had it Obama +2 with a sample of D+5 (36/31). Imagine a D+1 sample.

Tater Salad on September 10, 2012 at 10:44 PM

they lie on September 10, 2012 at 10:21 PM

lookie-a new moby!

annoyinglittletwerp on September 10, 2012 at 10:24 PM

…daily new liberals without a bladder…they’re leaking out everywhere aren’t they twerp?

KOOLAID2 on September 10, 2012 at 10:44 PM

By the way, the only reason this election is “close” is due to the color of skin. When people enter the voting booth color will fade and they will pick Romney/Ryan. During the polling they are just trying to avoid looking “racist”.

Tbone McGraw on September 10, 2012 at 10:41 PM

You got it, Tdawg. Lotta mind changes in the booth.

Lanceman on September 10, 2012 at 10:44 PM

Now where did I put my drill…

Lanceman on September 10, 2012 at 10:44 PM

Intuition tells you that a -30% on right track/wrong track isn’t being reflected in the polls. It has always been the #1 predictor of election outcomes.

Tater Salad on September 10, 2012 at 10:46 PM

Now where did I put my drill…

Lanceman on September 10, 2012 at 10:44 PM

Lol! ; )

Bmore on September 10, 2012 at 10:52 PM

The real reason the race is close, is because the left has become so ideological and dogmatic that they’re willing to outright LIE to themselves rather than acknowledge the truth.

The democratic party has drifted so far to the left that it is now going through an outright cultural schism from the rest of the united states. They would lie to themselves and vote for anybody rather than vote for a Republican, because to them voting for a Republican is like us voting for somebody from France or Britain.

In other words, culturally, they’re developing into a country unto themselves, and if they can convince enough independents to go along with them they’ll manage to win.

I don’t think they’ll win though. The more I look at polling this year, the more unrealistic they look. A ton of pollsters are making assumption after assumption the benefits Obama, so I’ve got to believe that reality looks quite a bit more optimistic than the polls the MSM is putting out.

WolvenOne on September 10, 2012 at 10:52 PM

“By the way, the only reason this election is “close” is due to the color of skin. When people enter the voting booth color will fade and they will pick Romney/Ryan. During the polling they are just trying to avoid looking “racist”. This election will be a landslide! 68%-28% and the third party nut jobs will get a couple. On November 7th we’ll all be a bunch of racists and I can live with that. As long as Moo-Chelle and the Obubler are going back to Chicago on a C-130…No more Air Force One.”

Yeah, that Bradley Effect was a humdinger in 08!

gumbyandpokey on September 10, 2012 at 10:53 PM

Another noob?
Bmore? SWalker? Electrogod?
could one of y’all find and plug the hole where the noobs are gettin’ in?

annoyinglittletwerp on September 10, 2012 at 10:30 PM

…no for gawd sakes…they’re coming out of DWS and Sandra Flukes Virginia’s! They’re everywhere!

KOOLAID2 on September 10, 2012 at 10:54 PM

IBD/TIPP poll (very accurate pollster through the years) out today had it Obama +2 with a sample of D+5 (36/31). Imagine a D+1 sample.

Tater Salad on September 10, 2012 at 10:44 PM

5+ Dems, and registered rather than likely voters to boot. If thats the best Obama can get immediately after his convention, and they’re indeed right about it being so close, then the man is doomed.

WolvenOne on September 10, 2012 at 10:54 PM

I will keep saying I don’t believe obama has a lead until I get the partisan breakdown n the polls claiming he does.
I swear HA is trolling for hits.

Hard Right on September 10, 2012 at 10:56 PM

Social conservatives are in love with Romney. We fiscal conservatives don’t have a dog in this fight, to my eyes. I could care less about abortion, gay marriage, or … look, another squirrel!

Wino on September 10, 2012 at 10:10 PM

I consider myself more of a social conservative then a fiscal conservative, yet I probably dislike Romney more then you. So you are hugely mistaken if you think social conservatives “love” Romney. I am not sure anybody really loves Romney. Thats his biggest problem. Maybe some Mormons and some establishment types.

One huge problem with having somebody in the Presidency like Romney is that he will have an incredibly small base to defend him when the media starts really tearing him up like they Bush. His approval rating if he doesn’t do what the media tells him to do will be in the 30′s most of his presidency. And 2016 will be impossible without an economic turn around.

KMav on September 10, 2012 at 10:59 PM

Hard Right on September 10, 2012 at 10:56 PM

I would not even admit it then… I do not trust polls.

Hot Air needs them hits. It is a corporation and it needs income.

astonerii on September 10, 2012 at 10:59 PM

Conservatives have a name for when moderates blame them for everything under the sun…Thursday.

sharrukin on September 10, 2012 at 10:30 PM

You people aren’t Conservatives.

Conservatives want to protect America from those who want to destroy her…not abet them.

Solaratov on September 10, 2012 at 11:00 PM

I, for one, am still planning to sit on the sideline until Romney declares categorically that he is going to cut spending and restore our freedom to choose medical providers. Last I heard, he said he’s keeping Obamacare, and he’s NEVER said he’s going to shrink spending.

Wino

I heard he said he was going to get rid of all the unicorns too.

xblade on September 10, 2012 at 11:01 PM

Yeah, that Bradley Effect was a humdinger in 08!

Yeah, 08′ he was an Empty Suit, 2012 he has a record and guess what? It Ain’t Good, as a matter of fact! It’s Horrible and he can’t run as the first Black President, just the Worst F*cking President in our History…Ain’t reality a B*tch?! LMMFBO!

Tbone McGraw on September 10, 2012 at 11:02 PM

Conservatives want to protect America from those who want to destroy her…not abet them.

Solaratov on September 10, 2012 at 11:00 PM

Thats why they prefer to not vote for a socialist regardless of what party he’s running for.

sharrukin on September 10, 2012 at 11:03 PM

gumbyandpokey on September 10, 2012 at 10:53 PM

Quite a few pollsters did over estimate Obama’s margin of victory in 08, others came quite a bit closer. Thing is though, no pollsters model predicted the record turnout of African Americans, they were all assuming a slight increase over 2008, not a jump as big as they did.

So, if their models DID account for that, most pollsters would’ve predicted Obama winning by 2-4 more points. At that point even the most conservative pollsters would’ve ended up over-estimating Obama’s victory by a considerable margin.

This suggests that there probably WAS a Bradley effect in the polling, but it was partially hidden by African American turnout.

Not that we should bank on the Bradley effect saving us. I think said effect is probably diminished enough that it only throws polls off by, maybe a point or two. Or, I could be wrong and it could be gone entirely.

Either way, its best to play it safe and make some modestly pessimistic assumptions about the polling. The only reason I’m optimistic is because a lot of pollsters are making wildly pessimistic assumptions in Obama’s favor.

I mean, take that PPP poll for example. Amongst other things, it assumes that Ohio’s turnout will end up being around 60% women, which is absurd given that Women in Ohio only make up 51% of registered voters.

It doesn’t take a lot of, uh, manual adjusting of these polls before things start to look a whole lot more optimistic for Romney.

WolvenOne on September 10, 2012 at 11:04 PM

All right, but ..

The questions would have to be verifiable. “Do you think the economy is worse this week than last?” takes the temperature of perception, but it isn’t verifiable. Not really. It’s not that someone wouldn’t try — they would establish some metrics for “better” and “worse” — kinda like a Snopes quality analysis, but it would lack rigor. Like “Was Obama born in Hawaii?” — the only strictly correct answer is “I don’t know” — unless you were a nurse in the before time when Obama came into being and actually do know; every other answer is assumption, and assuming anyone who doesn’t say “yes” is less politically savvy and therefore Fox viewers are dumber than Comedy Central viewers — all this crap is something to avoid. Anyway, you would need things like “Are more people employed this week than last?” — that kind of thing.

Then you could show that partisans are more likely to walk off the page, if they are. And you could show by how much.

And if it’s true that either 1. conservatives are less likely to be partisans, or 2. conservatives are more accurate when they are partisans, all the previous snark becomes “scientific fact” and surely, if there is a God, and there is — some woman somewhere would be impressed, i.e., the work would be worth doing, and conservatives could take some solace in knowing that their suspicions about the hippies have always been right.

Of course, the alternative is unthinkable.

But who does this kind of thing? Does anyone actually do this kind of thing?

Axe on September 10, 2012 at 11:07 PM

I don’t know how 0bama lost. Everyone I know voted for him.

Think you guys got this the wrong way.

Proof;

1. 2010
2. Wisconsin.
3. Illinois.
4. 0bama’s august:
96,000 jobs created.
370,000 people gave up looking for a job.
22,000 businesses ceased to exist.
176,000 new food stamp moochers.
320,000 new SSDI approvals.

jukin3 on September 10, 2012 at 11:07 PM

I should think that apalled a lot of the dem base.

AZgranny on September 10, 2012 at 10:26 PM

I disagree. The dem base consists of statists, Marxists, and Communists. The last Democrat that would be offended by what happened at the DNC was Joe Lieberman and they forced him out of the Party just because he believes in a strong military. I believe the base of the party is so far to the left that there is no room for God or Israel in their midst.

Anyone that calls themselves a Democrat today has their head in the sand. The leftists have taken over their party and they are too proud or ignorant that they won’t disavow what their party does.

I’m sure there are some people that think the economy is not doing so bad. Those people would NEVER vote Republican anyway. I wish the R’s would just post grocery prices from 2009 comparing them to grocery prices today. I wonder how many people could be convinced that the economy has been plunged into despair because of the insane policies of our President. I still have hope but I’m also a realist. Too many people get their news from Comedy Central. I’m just hoping those people stay home on election day.

Zooid on September 10, 2012 at 11:09 PM

Drudge reports that Obama only up by 2 now

Conservative4ev on September 10, 2012 at 11:10 PM

The thing is I am not sure what Romney will do but I am very sure what Obama will do. If you cannot bring yourself to vote for Romney then bring yourself to vote Obama out. It is that simple. If you sit on the side lines, Obama wins. Socialism is slavery. Vote to remove Obama. That is a start!

wilk1154 on September 10, 2012 at 11:10 PM

You people aren’t Conservatives.

Conservatives want to protect America from those who want to destroy her…not abet them.

Solaratov on September 10, 2012 at 11:00 PM

I know, true conservatives are the people who demand to have their SS tax payments returned to them with unrealistic interest before they will ever imagine giving up their government benefits.

astonerii on September 10, 2012 at 11:12 PM

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