PPP puts Obama up 5 in Ohio

posted at 11:21 am on September 10, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Will Oiho Ohio Democrats turn out in record numbers this November, even eclipsing the 2008 wave election that allowed Barack Obama to win the state by five points in 2008?  If so, then PPP predicts a similar outcome in its latest survey of the Buckeye State, but that model might raise a few eyebrows:

PPP’s first post-conventions poll in Ohio finds Barack Obama with a 5 point lead over Mitt Romney, 50-45. This is the largest lead PPP has found for Obama in an Ohio poll since early May. Last month Obama led 48-45.

Both candidates have seen their images improve with Ohio voters in the wake of the conventions. Obama now breaks even in his approval rating at 48%, after being under water with 46% of voters approving and 51% disapproving of him a month ago. Romney’s numbers are up from a 41/52 favorability rating a month ago as well, but he still remains unpopular. Only 44% see him favorably to 49% with a negative opinion.

Romney actually leads 46-44 with independents but Obama has the overall advantage thanks to a more unified party base. He leads 86/11 with Democrats, compared to Romney’s 83/13 advantage with Republicans. Obama’s 75 point lead within his own party is up from 70 points a month ago, suggesting that his party has coalesced around him a little bit more in the wake of a successful convention. By a 47/35 margin Ohio voters say they think the Democrats had a better convention than the Republicans.

The point about independents gets to the heart of the issue with this poll.  The sample has a D/R/I split of 41/37/22.  The 37% that Republicans get in this survey matches their 2010 midterm turnout, which had a D/R/I of 36/37/28.  The 41% for Democrats significantly exceeds that turnout, and also exceeds the 2008 election’s 39/31/30 exit polling that produced the five-point margin of Obama victory in the election.

The big drop in independents from the sample is well worth noting, because Obama won Ohio independents by eight points in 2008, 52/44 — greater than his five-point margin of victory.  If Romney is up by two in this demographic, that’s a ten-point swing among what had been 28-30% of the turnout in Ohio elections.  Nothing in this poll suggests that Ohio has suddenly become a lot more Democratic except the sample itself; even in this sample, Obama’s job approval is only 48/48 (only 51/44 among women), and a -14 among independents, 40/54.

Ohio looks deadlocked if one considers the modeling used, and even perhaps edging toward Romney when looking at the independents.  I’d wait on hitting panic buttons here until seeing something with a better likely-voter model.


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MVE: the county I was in went 49-48 for McCain in ’08 and the Congressional District brutalized a 2-term Democratic incumbent in ’10 (he’d suck in after a scandal drove the preceding Republican out). It is true swing territory, hardly an Obama hotbed.

Are you referring to the Athens area? The town I was near was very much not a collegiate earthy-crunchy outpost.

Deanna: if I’m going to make stuff up it will involve more than a sample of one person. And I didn’t say that one data point indicated a Romney debacle. Just that it was an illuminating conversation in that it appeared that his message and appeal were less compellI g than I had anticipated in that area, with a member of a key demographic.

urban elitist on September 10, 2012 at 1:02 PM

I am in Toledo. Romney is +2…

R 47
O 45

nitzsche on September 10, 2012 at 1:02 PM

So I don’t see why online some folks want to panic..

mark81150 on September 10, 2012 at 12:45 PM

Look, I used to be all down about the Detroit Lions, as a Detroiter I need to be sour about SOMETHING. LOL

GadsdenRattlers on September 10, 2012 at 1:03 PM

So blame it on the f…ing retarted half of this country, that’s the intellectual level of the average voter in this country, they don’t know better, and you can’t spoon feed them common sense…besides, demographics is not on our side, and you know it…

jimver on September 10, 2012 at 12:57 PM

Lot of truth in that.

One of my best friends is a diehard Dem, but when you get to talking to her, she’s really a diehard libertarian. But she buys into all the crap about Republicans and has so absorbed the Hollywood crap that she votes Dem. She doesn’t even know what libertarians are. I try, man do I try, but she’s got a cinderblock wall ten miles thick when it comes to Republicans (ignoring the fact that I’m one, go figure). Politically, she’s a lemming.

tdpwells on September 10, 2012 at 1:04 PM

I’m not a union member, and I’m not from Ohio. Nonetheless, if I get a call from a pollster (and I haven’t), there’s still a good chance that I’ll either hang up or lie to him.

Right Mover on September 10, 2012 at 12:56 PM

Got my very first call last Friday..

and since I’m retired,.. and the caller didn’t sound like he was a local….. I told him the truth.. and thought..

screw this.. let them know at least some of us are on the other side. I do understand though, I was in the UFCW for 17 years.. local 1035. and they do have their thugs….

I’ve seen them.. heard them.. one threatened to burn down a woman in her house if she even thought about crossing their picket line..

I saw this happen.. anyone who thinks the unions aren’t corrupt criminal organizations are delusional.

mark81150 on September 10, 2012 at 1:05 PM

OT: Gallup, Obama bounce over.

http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

sentinelrules on September 10, 2012 at 1:06 PM

The War Planner on September 10, 2012 at 12:55 PM

Great to see you into black powder weapons..Very cool!..:)

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 1:08 PM

Your BS call is BS.

I agree with you everybody here agrees one conversation is BS. But that does not mean that we can’t work through the BS and find something worth while in our conversations.

Steveangell on September 10, 2012 at 12:53 PM

Oh come on, nice try. I called it BS because I think it is BS. Not just the fact it was one conversation, the whole post. You know it too. You just like to be contrary even when it’s the wrong thing to do.
Like I told you before, you need to get out and do something. And don’t give me that Blue State excuse either. I did it, so can you…if you’re sincere. Now I have to get ready for a birthday lunch for an elderly neighbor. See, you could do something like that too. Have a nice day.

Deanna on September 10, 2012 at 1:08 PM

jimver on September 10, 2012 at 12:57 PM

That’s my point (which I didn’t do a very good job of saying). How do you beat a demographic that buys the crap sandwhich the Dems are selling? We can see the man behind the curtain. But take your uninformed voter out there and a pretty speech over hard facts wins the day every time.

Like I wrote earlier, I just want ONE swing state to place in our column right now to show its winnable. Just ONE.

GadsdenRattlers on September 10, 2012 at 1:09 PM

Gullible morons.
‘Conservative media’ rectal bubble. Heads up their asses.

rayra on September 10, 2012 at 1:10 PM

http://washingtonexaminer.com/article/2507493#.UE4eSq7aBcL

But his approval rating is already coming back down to earth. It fell from a net +10 Saturday to just a net +6 (50/44) Sunday. Just as Obama’s approval rating was a leading indicator of Obama’s head-to-head match-up gain on the way up, expect his falling approval rating to be a leading indicator on the way down.

Gallup tracking remains at 49 Barry, Romney 44, the same as yesterday.
The natural history of a bounce is up and then down. Let’s see what Barry’s number is in late September.

bayview on September 10, 2012 at 1:12 PM

Look at her toned arms!

What are the Republicans so mean and racist?

I just love his family.

Yahoo News voter comments above.

PappyD61 on September 10, 2012 at 1:13 PM

These liberal polling hacks and their media mouthpieces aren’t depressing me…they are ticking me off! I can’t wait until November 6th to cast my vote for Romney. I’m taking my 18 year old college freshman with me so she can cast her very first vote for Romney. The only poll that matters is the one tallied on November 6 and it doesn’t look good for President Pantload.

FirstBoot on September 10, 2012 at 1:14 PM

Not even the Obama partisans will try and tell you that Obama will outperform what he did in 2008.

Obama only won Ohio in 2008 by 4.5%, so if around 2.5% of Ohio voters change their mind about him, he’s toast.

I like Romney’s chances.

BradTank on September 10, 2012 at 1:15 PM

mark81150: I realize he’s not going to carry rural Ohio (beautiful country, btw, and friendly people where we stayed). I’m curious to see what sort of margin Romney rolls up and, for purposes of this discussion, hearing what people like you have to say. Far more nteresti g than the inevitable “pollsters lie and the Communist media spreads the lies” comments that any poll result not favoring Romney brings out.

As I said, I threw that anecdote out as a discussion point

urban elitist on September 10, 2012 at 1:18 PM

These polls are are totally skewed, the dnc is in panic mode so in order for them to try and depressed the other side they bully and intimidate pollsters like gallup, and who knows how many of them are intimidated by axelrod with lawsuits. The lib media are already saying its over…Bullshit I live in the most liberal state and people I know who voted for obama will vote for romney.

http://www.dickmorris.com/obama-thugs-rough-up-gallup-for-polls-they-dont-like/

remember 2010 was a referendum against obama, since then it has gotten worse, I cant wait till Nov 6 to vote his ass out and I live in the bluest state, I believe I can make a difference!!!

jaboba on September 10, 2012 at 1:21 PM

So they greatly over sample democrats, and greatly under sample independents which Mitt is way ahead on against Obama, and all he can get is +5? See this is why it’s pointless to focus on polls. Right now they’re only used for narrative creation. Don’t play, just focus on Nov. and vote.

Weight of Glory on September 10, 2012 at 11:27 AM

and every one runs around like their heads are on fire and their a$$es are catching ….

conservative tarheel on September 10, 2012 at 1:24 PM

remember 2010 was a referendum against obama, since then it has gotten worse, I cant wait till Nov 6 to vote his ass out and I live in the bluest state, I believe I can make a difference!!!

jaboba on September 10, 2012 at 1:21 PM

NO.

2010 was a referendum on Congress craming Obama care down our throats, put on by the Tea Party. The people not wanting Obama Care or anything like it (Romney Care).

2010 would have fought against Romney as well. After all Romney is the proud father of Obama Care. Romney still praises Romney Care which is nearly identical to Obama Care.

The lesson of 2010 is being ignored by those that support Romney. What Romney wants to replace Obama Care the people do not want either. Which is why Romney is offering no details of it. He knows it would be political suicide to do so. He have to elect Romney to find out his plan. Hey that did not work out well for ex-Speaker Poloski did it.

Steveangell on September 10, 2012 at 1:32 PM

Do not think so. After all Mitt thinks Obama is doing a great job just ask his spokesman son.

Steveangell on September 10, 2012 at 12:58 PM

-
I couldn’t care less what a son of anyone says.
-
A Repub and Con tidal wave is coming… Few of US believe that Obama is doing anything but a horrible job. And the 08′ election was an exceptional set of perfect storm circumstances.
-
The kool-ade has worn off many I know, and even those that still support Barry are not jumping up an down with stars in their eyes.
-
So unless someone drags the numbers to the polls for Barry, Romney will ride a tidal wave of NoBama right into the WH.
-
Plus Mitt has business sense and Ryan on his side…
-
Works for me.
-

RalphyBoy on September 10, 2012 at 1:33 PM

mark81150 on September 10, 2012 at 12:57 PM

Hey Chill.

You just attacked him for saying the same thing you said in response.

You both agree one conversation has no real meaning.

Steveangell on September 10, 2012 at 1:00 PM

One………

attacked?

did I use my hands or something more sinister and metallic?

I’m pointing out that his transforming that one conversation.. into,.. well obviously if this guys don’t like him.. he’s doomed in that demographic… to…. it’s only one conservation.. so take it as you will…

You know damn well the image he’s attempting to put in your mind..

defeat.. the same as you..

so f**k chill…

I’m tired of the one website I love being infested with people telling us.. YOU will loose.. I know it.. because my cat told me.. or something as meaningless as what he posted..

I’m 53.. a vet.. retired on disability blue collar.. living in the state people who DON”T are telling me how it’ll be voting based on….. their desire to see the right sit this one out..

and I’ve seen your posts..

I haven’t bothered responding because it’s pointless.

You’re in the rather die in a fire than even TRY to rebuild this country from the Obama debacle..

so that means I don’t much care what you think.. Not when you preach constantly that Romney is worse than Obama.. when that is laughably absurd.

You want to wrap yourself in foil and spout off about the dread demon Mitt.. I can’t stop you, I can however..

ignore you.

mark81150 on September 10, 2012 at 1:35 PM

Liars use statistics like a drunk uses a lamp post. For support, not enlightenment.

CycloneCDB on September 10, 2012 at 1:36 PM

and any idea how many of the democrats polled were deceased humans and pets?

mittens on September 10, 2012 at 11:35 AM

WHAT DEAD PETS are voting now ??? that is low even for Dems…
:D

conservative tarheel on September 10, 2012 at 1:36 PM

I couldn’t care less what a son of anyone says.

RalphyBoy on September 10, 2012 at 1:33 PM

Reading glasses needed?

I too could care less what just a son had to say. A son could hate his father after all.

However when that son is also his spokesman that is a totally different story. Matt Romney is still Mitt Romneys spokesman.

This statement was made in his professional job as Mitt Romney’s spokesman and Mitt Romney never said his son was wrong.

Steveangell on September 10, 2012 at 1:41 PM

I’m tired of the one website I love being infested with people telling us.. YOU will loose.. I know it.. because my cat told me.. or something as meaningless as what he posted..
mark81150 on September 10, 2012 at 1:35 PM

I am tired of the site being infested with people that hate the majority of the Republican Party. Conservatives.

I am tired of people infesting the site just looking for an opportunity to attack Sarah, Michelle, Scott or any other Conservative Republican. That try to force people off a ballot they legitimately won for a single gaff.

But these personal attacks are just wrong.

Steveangell on September 10, 2012 at 1:49 PM

Okay, going to say this again, cause people don’t seem to be getting in. Polls taken during the weekend following Obama’s convention “are not likely to be representative of what the final election looks like.”

WolvenOne on September 10, 2012 at 1:52 PM

mark81150: I realize he’s not going to carry rural Ohio (beautiful country, btw, and friendly people where we stayed). I’m curious to see what sort of margin Romney rolls up and, for purposes of this discussion, hearing what people like you have to say. Far more nteresti g than the inevitable “pollsters lie and the Communist media spreads the lies” comments that any poll result not favoring Romney brings out.

As I said, I threw that anecdote out as a discussion point

urban elitist on September 10, 2012 at 1:18 PM

It is beautiful country isn’t it?.. My entire life minus my service years have been here. I live the green, the air.. the feel of it, and people, most people are decent, and I include all of us in that, not separating red and blue..

I’ve always had democrat friends.. and we’ve never lost friends over politics, not here anyway.. my wife was a democrat when we married.. has shifted to independent, wether that was my influence or her own common sense,.. who knows..

I know my fellow Buckeyes.. and I just don’t see any enthusiasm among the democrats here for Obama…

We’ve been in recession and recession level distress here for ten years,.. Taft, then Strickland.. finally seeing daylight with John Kasich, and as his reforms take effect, his numbers are coming back up. But that decade has shaped our views on many things..

You’ll notice people here feel like they’ve been kicked by economic forces for way too long. There isn’t any JOY in anything anymore.. I said before,.. I’ve taken in family, who lost their homes to bad times.. they still live with me, only now is one sis in law hoping to find work, and with her boyfriend, move on..

our story isn’t unique here, many a Buckeye has found that the old family first ways aren’t as forgotten as we thought. Our advantage over urban areas, is we largely live in homes, rentals, rather than apartments, and can when pressed take each other in.. at least some times.. so the second level safety net has proven at least as valuable.. Churches, family, sometimes even neighbors..

I loose faith with our liberal centers alot, because I think they’re wrong headed, or just wrong.. but it’s not in me to hate someone who is trying just as we are.. not in Ohio anyway.. but we treat politics here like we do football.

a contact sport.

mark81150 on September 10, 2012 at 1:54 PM

Huh, fancy that! A polling group tied in with Daily Kos and union goons is pushing the absurd narrative that Obama will do better than Greek column-y 2008.

From M. Malkin in a Twitchy blog posting yesterday

socalcon on September 10, 2012 at 2:01 PM

screw this.. let them know at least some of us are on the other side. I do understand though, I was in the UFCW for 17 years.. local 1035. and they do have their thugs….

I’ve seen them.. heard them.. one threatened to burn down a woman in her house if she even thought about crossing their picket line..

I saw this happen.. anyone who thinks the unions aren’t corrupt criminal organizations are delusional.

mark81150 on September 10, 2012 at 1:05 PM

When people are alone and anonymous in the booth, without RAAAACIST being shrieked in their ear, without the threat of violence and bullying… be interesting to see what they choose.

kim roy on September 10, 2012 at 2:02 PM

Wise not to panic – besides, AP is already soiling himself daily over the polls, that role is taken.

Remember also that in 2008, Democratic Party ID had reached a recent high, and that the overall D+7 electorate that year is a record. Given what we know about the mood of the country, right track/wrong track numbers, and enthusiasm among voters, it is preposterous to believe 2012 will match or exceed Democrats’ turnout and performance of four years ago.

It may not be deliberate manipulation. It could just be that ever more Republicans, conservative, and Tea Party supporters are refusing to participate in the polls. That would have the same effect of skewing the samples, but without the malicious intent.

Adjoran on September 10, 2012 at 2:03 PM

This statement was made in his professional job as Mitt Romney’s spokesman and Mitt Romney never said his son was wrong.

Steveangell on September 10, 2012 at 1:41 PM

It was said in March. Also, what is he supposed to say? With the mood of the country as it is right now and having to depend on low information voters and the wobbly minded to bring him over the top he’s supposed to insult The First Black President and Mr. Historic?

That’s dumb. It was a flip comment and not one to be taken seriously. “Obama, he’s great, but let’s talk about my dad and….”.

You really are tedious. Gary Johnson will be lucky to get 1% of the vote. The candidates with any chance of winning are Obama and Romney. If you cannot vote for either, then fine, but really just stop with the negative nelly. We know what we’re getting and we’re obviously fine with it.

As Lanceman (I believe) said to you: Go find a woman and get laid. Or an enema. Something.

kim roy on September 10, 2012 at 2:07 PM

I am tired of the site being infested with people that hate the majority of the Republican Party. Conservatives.

I am tired of people infesting the site just looking for an opportunity to attack Sarah, Michelle, Scott or any other Conservative Republican. That try to force people off a ballot they legitimately won for a single gaff.

But these personal attacks are just wrong.

Steveangell on September 10, 2012 at 1:49 PM

Oh, so it’s ok for you to attack the politicians that you don’t like or trust for whatever subjective reason, but it’s not ok for others to do the same…quite the logic there….well, go find another site that suits you…though I doubt you will find one that suits your mental disposition and idiosyncrasies…

jimver on September 10, 2012 at 2:09 PM

I am tired of the site being infested with people that hate the majority of the Republican Party. Conservatives.

I am tired of people infesting the site just looking for an opportunity to attack Sarah, Michelle, Scott or any other Conservative Republican. That try to force people off a ballot they legitimately won for a single gaff.

But these personal attacks are just wrong.

Steveangell on September 10, 2012 at 1:49 PM

Urban elitist is a conservative to you?

That is who I was talking to, and since I haven’t called him, or you a single name.. I fail to see why your feeling got hurt because I strongly disagreed.

Name a single conservative I have attacked here…. or do you count… Paul? I don’t.. he’s a libertarian.. hardly a conservative by any stretching of the term.

My problem is with dead enders..

You are so aggrieved that your favored person lost the primaries.. you’d rather just blow it all up than work with the tools you get, instead of the ones you dream of?

and personal attacks aren’t something you have been shy with, so cry on somebody else’s shoulder.

If you want to climb up on the podium and dive off wrapped in C-4.. all because we disagree?.. and your guy lost?

Good Lord you take bad looser to an epic level.. and wether you like it or not, the party.. rank and file.. did not vote your way.. yeah it stings.. been there. Burt your issue isn’t really that..

It’s that we aren’t a single issue tiny microscopic tent like the democrats, who PURGE those vile apostates who dare to not hold Steve’s holy writ dear…

The GOP is a very large tent, and that is your problem.

We aren’t going to redo the primaries, not redo the convention.. and we will win with Mitt… then we’ll work to keep conservatives at least an influence in his WH..

Obama is the problem.. and if you can’t be talked down.. then jump and be done with it..

This constant Lady Macbeth act is wearing thin.

mark81150 on September 10, 2012 at 2:10 PM

This statement was made in his professional job as Mitt Romney’s spokesman and Mitt Romney never said his son was wrong.

Steveangell on September 10, 2012 at 1:41 PM

Dude, his son is his own person and speaks on his own behalf…

jimver on September 10, 2012 at 2:10 PM

PPP always leans Demmie. No news here. I don’t believe the poll one bit.

COgirl on September 10, 2012 at 2:12 PM

Did the news not recently say, that for the first time since the 20′s.. there are just as many republicans are democrats?

Why then… is EVERY poll weighted with more democrats than republicans.. between 4 and 9 depending on the poll?

If not outright bias.. why weight them heavily democrat?

mark81150 on September 10, 2012 at 2:20 PM

Okay, gonna go into more detail on things.

Something I’ve noticed over the weekend is that while Obama’s gotten a pretty big bump nationally, the bump hasn’t really translated into swing states very well.

People are making a big deal out of the PPP Ohio poll, but even putting aside all the polling problems with it, it only shows a two point bump in Ohio verses PPP’s previous Ohio poll.

Alternately we could look at the ARG poll that came out near the end of the week that had Romney up +3, which was taken mostly after Bill Clintons DNC speech. Before anybody asks, this was a +4 Democrat poll, and I couldn’t see anything in it that would unnaturally sway it in favor of Republicans. Its likely that this poll didn’t fully factor in Obama’s bounce, but it came late enough that it would’ve factored most of it in.

Now

Over the Weekend we also got a PPP poll in North Carolina. Again, it made unrealistic assumptions about democratic party turnout, putting that aside it showed only a very modest improvement for Obama.

Finally, we has Rasmussens swing state tracking poll, which today had Obama up, 1%, showing a considerably smaller bump that Obama got nationally. If you factor in the weekend polling effect, Romney is probably perfectly tied in these swing states, or even slightly ahead.

So, if Obama only got a modest bump in swing states, what does it mean exactly? Well, I see a few potential possibilities.

1: Swing states were already fully engaged in the election.

Conventions produce bumps by taking people who were unengaged with an election and getting them involved. They fade, because as the excitement wears off, these individuals either lose interest again, or in some cases they switch votes. In swing states however, they is likely far fewer people unengaged in the first place, which may blunt the effect of conventions.

2: Romney’s advertising may be blunting the bounce.

A sudden spike in advertising just as people are starting to pay attention could go a ways towards offsetting a bounce, if the advertising is effective.

Additionally, the advertising in conjunction with the jobs reports may be having an effect. If swing state voters are more engaged, then they may be more likely to notice things like a lousy jobs report.

3: National Pollsters may be oversampling blue states.

It stands to reason that states that are traditionally sympathetic to democrats, will show a more pronounced bounce. Even if the breakdown between Republicans, Democrats, and indies is reasonable, R’s and I’s from New York are more likely to be swayed from by the democratic line than R’s and I’s from Texas.

Frankly, I tend to think all three factors are playing into what we’re seeing, to some degree or another. It’s important to keep in mind that in a country where over a hundred million people vote, polls with samples of even 10,000 respondents are ridiculously small. There is a LOT of room for error in those kinds of polls, intentional or otherwise.

Polls, when done correctly, SHOULD be more accurate on a state level. Though historically state level pollsters have had accuracy problems.

WolvenOne on September 10, 2012 at 2:21 PM

Some interesting things in North Carolina and Florida:

Both states have shed more Democrats from their voter rolls than the margin of victory in 2008.

NC has shed over 100,000 Democrats from their rolls, FL over 200,000.

What I find interesting is that a huge number of people are now registering Independent and not Dem or Rep but the Dems seems to be losing about 10x more to this phenomenon than Republicans are.

I don’t know how Ohio voter registrations are going so far.

crosspatch on September 10, 2012 at 2:37 PM

I am sorry, but I am not sure that I am buying a PPP poll in Ohio. I think I will wait and see on this.

Terrye on September 10, 2012 at 2:39 PM

Independents under sampled to skew towards Dear Leader.

Women oversampled to to skew towards Dear Leader.

My guess is that worst case, Ohio is tied right now.

TheAdmiral on September 10, 2012 at 2:57 PM

I`m still going to vote but………. It`s over. :(

ThePrez on September 10, 2012 at 3:51 PM

Oh, so it’s ok for you to attack the politicians that you don’t like or trust for whatever subjective reason, but it’s not ok for others to do the same…quite the logic there….well, go find another site that suits you…though I doubt you will find one that suits your mental disposition and idiosyncrasies…

jimver on September 10, 2012 at 2:09 PM

Ah yes. Politicians are legitimate targets that is not personal unless you make it so by saying something stupid like Obama’s mother … A politicians record is 100% on record available to use for attacks.

I object to people calling others (posters here) names because they dislike their opinion. Sometimes trolling by trying to force them to leave the site with personal attacks.

Steveangell on September 10, 2012 at 4:06 PM

Listen OFA concern trolls, I know this is the only job you could get in the Obama Depression, but please stay out of the way of the people actually trying to improve the economy.

As for the eeyores. We don’t need you. You say you’re the heirs to George Washington and adherents to the American values of self-reliance, but scatter like cockroaches the second you get stiff pushback? Here in Wisconsin, we’ve been at war for two years straight. Our liberal friends and family rag, and you never know if that newest scratch on your car is because of your Ron Johnson or Scott Walker bumper sticker. But guess what? We won, and seeing what’s happening in Chicago, not a moment too soon. You see I’ve got kids. I don’t have an option.

The Left isn’t giving up. They’ve been slowly undermining this country for 60 years, infiltrating our institutions and crying “tolerance” if anyone ever pushed back. We need to do the same.

xuyee on September 10, 2012 at 4:08 PM

This statement was made in his professional job as Mitt Romney’s spokesman and Mitt Romney never said his son was wrong.

Steveangell on September 10, 2012 at 1:41 PM

Dude, his son is his own person and speaks on his own behalf…

jimver on September 10, 2012 at 2:10 PM

Not when he pays his son to be his Spokesman then his son is his Spokesman thus the title. He could have had anyone as his Spokesman but he hired his son. His son thus speaks officially for Mitt Romney.

His sister said. Don’t worry Mitt is 100% pro choice. I do not use that quote because she is just a sister not an official in Romney’s organization.

I find it abhorrent that Mitt thinks Obama is doing a great job. This statement is what made me decide I could never vote for Mitt. Though this is just about as bad. How can someone be pro China regulations and pro American. They are our opposite on regulations.

Steveangell on September 10, 2012 at 4:14 PM

Polls, when done correctly, SHOULD be more accurate on a state level. Though historically state level pollsters have had accuracy problems.

WolvenOne on September 10, 2012 at 2:21 PM

I want Romney to lose.

But this bump is meaningless. Wait for two weeks then we will know if it had a real effect. Some of my Democratic friends were gushing about Barry and Michelle speeches. They are now finding out those speeches were just rehashes and full of lies. The personal stories are turning out to be fiction. It will take a while to sift out what the impact of the conventions really are. One thing we do know is Romney was not helped. So far that is all we know. Far to early to know if Obama was helped. A week makes a difference on these things.

Steveangell on September 10, 2012 at 4:22 PM

CNN/ORC poll showed Barry gone by by 6 points/. No internals.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/09/10/rel10a.pdf

Likely Voters

Sept. 7-9, Barry 52% Romney 46% Undecided 2%
Aug. 31-Sept. 3 they were tied at 48

bayview on September 10, 2012 at 4:30 PM

“CNN/ORC poll showed Barry gone by by 6 points/. No internals.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/09/10/rel10a.pdf

Likely Voters

Sept. 7-9, Barry 52% Romney 46% Undecided 2%
Aug. 31-Sept. 3 they were tied at 48″

Everyone showing the same thing. Romney is toast.

gumbyandpokey on September 10, 2012 at 4:34 PM

Let’s all calm down and heed this advice: post-convention polls that show a bounce mean nothing. Nothing. Far more significant was the Jobs Report. It’s the economy that’ll settle this election, not polls and especially not polls that show temporary bounces. All they do is feed the buzz and give journalists something to write about. The bottom line: as long as the economy’s bad things don’t look too rosy for Obama.

writeblock on September 10, 2012 at 4:36 PM

IBD/TIPP poll just out…

Obama +2

gumbyandpokey on September 10, 2012 at 4:40 PM

Everyone showing the same thing. Romney is toast.
gumbypoked on September 10, 2012 at 4:34 PM

IBD/TIPP poll just out…
Obama +2
gumbypoked on September 10, 2012 at 4:40 PM

You lied in your earlier comment on Gallup. And you lied here by saying it is everyone. IBD/TIPP showed Barry lead went from +7 to +2, and it was a RV poll with a +5 D.

bayview on September 10, 2012 at 4:47 PM

One thing we do know is Romney was not helped. So far that is all we know.

Not exactly true. He got a small bounce, but it evaporated over the Labor Day weekend when most Americans were distracted. Then the Dem convention kicked in, giving Obama a modest bump–just before a weekend when polling consistently favors Dems for some reason nobody quite understands. Gallup is already showing a drop from Sunday’s high of 52% among adults. It’s now 50%, a drop of 2 pts. Tommorrow it’ll drop even more till it returns to somewhere around 43-47% where it’s been all year.

I can see why conservatives are concerned. But we’re in a cold civil war and winning it will mean not panicking and staying focused. I do think Romney will need to hit back harder. Personally I don’t think the recent ads have enough bite. He should address the Bain smears and reassure the worried public that he’s not going to remove the safety net–which is a big fear out there. That said, we’re not in bad shape. The economy’s rotten and the public knows Obama can’t deal with it. That’s the bottom line.

writeblock on September 10, 2012 at 4:51 PM

stop buying these polls! The MSM runs most of them and we know how much the MSM is in the tank for Obozo. Chill and stop harshing my mellow.

neyney on September 10, 2012 at 5:06 PM

There seem to be certain flaws in that CNN poll.

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher

New CNN poll has LITERALLY 37 Independents at the RV level. That is insane… 4% of the poll is IND.

So RV split of the CNN poll is 50.4D, 45.4R, 4.2I based off their base RVs … Dunno about LV.

They have 875 RVs total. Pg 5 says they have a base of 441 Registered Dems and 397 Reg Reps leaving just 37 spots.

Put it this way..if the poll is truly only 37 INDs than its worthless outside of showing D enthusiasm is way up (hence the word bounce)

And if they dump Indys back out, Romneys up 14 overall, 23 economy, 24 favorable(wow), 2 medicare, 9 shares values, 11 strong leader

Bottom line is CNN poll’s bounce is almost all from D enthusiasm leaking into LV, which makes sense after a convention. Will it last though?

I can’t figure out the independent #s on CNN because nothing makes sense, but if its 37 people on 30% its great news for Romney.

Tresjin on September 10, 2012 at 5:15 PM

Thank God.

I thought for sure we’d have to call for the crash cart for Allah,
although I’m keeping the cell phone handy in case I need to make that 9-1-1 call…..

Tenwheeler on September 10, 2012 at 5:16 PM

writeblock on September 10, 2012 at 4:51 PM

Romney lost the narrative war in these conventions.

Obama got a bounce that is not really arguable.

Romney is not better off has been established.

Obama may be better off but not for now. Too early to tell. Obama does better on weekend polls generally part of this is just that.

I think in the end the Conventions will be a wash. Both the GOP and DNC made big mistakes changing rules. That will most likely be what is most remembered.

Steveangell on September 10, 2012 at 5:56 PM

Everyone showing the same thing. Romney is toast.

gumbyandpokey on September 10, 2012 at 4:34 PM

jeezz..

When in 1980, this far out, Carter led Reagan by 9 points….

You are gushing over less than that.. when historically, you have zero reason to run around waving your “IT’S ALL OVER STAY HOME” flags..

except for being a troll and trying to depress the vote.. a waste of our time, you couldn’t get me or anyone I know to sit this out with a gun.

mark81150 on September 10, 2012 at 6:57 PM

I want Romney to lose.
———–

Steveangell on September 10, 2012 at 4:22 PM

we know that..

and you really wonder why, at a conservative, and republican.. some libertarians site.. you get no respect?

You have displayed an obsessive to pathological hate for Mitt Romney which is all out of proportion to what he’s actually accomplished in his life..

You have shown almost no interest at all in the damage Obama has done.. will do.. then mumble about Mitt being far worse..

That is not a rational view.

You claim to be the “real” conservative here, but really son..

when the conservatives here out number you as we do, and find your version of conservatism unhinged… that would seem to make you an iconoclast, but NOT a conservative. I take it you’re a disgruntled Paul Kamikaze.. determined to burn it all down.. then magically rebuild it in your personal image..

Do you have any idea how maniacal that sounds?.. The hubris, the arrogance,.. the raging narcissism?

I don’t WANT you to help Obama trash the country thank you.. so consider my vote cast to cancel yours..

I don’t know why you have fixated on Romney, he wasn’t my first or second choice, but he has two qualities we need to win.. He like Reagan is mild enough to pull in a lot of disaffected democrats.. two.. He’s not prone to the unforced errors and numerous gaffes some politicians are.. not perfect no… but far better than most.. He is hard for the media to demonize.. So, he’s our best option.

We get you’re setting your hair on fire in rage over that..

You do that.. I’m still voting straight GOP..

mark81150 on September 10, 2012 at 7:28 PM

Thanks for writing this Ed, I actually feel slightly better after reading this.

Dollayo on September 10, 2012 at 10:26 PM

Do not think so. After all Mitt thinks Obama is doing a great job just ask his spokesman son.

Steveangell on September 10, 2012 at 12:58 PM

This statement was made in his professional job as Mitt Romney’s spokesman and Mitt Romney never said his son was wrong.

Steveangell on September 10, 2012 at 1:41 PM

-
So… 24 hours later (I had to go to work)… the link goes to the New York… libby I’m sure. There are Zero comments there, it offered me to be the first of my friends to recommend it on FB, and it does not quote Mitt’s son as having said “doing a great job”
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The quote is…

“I’m not here to talk about President Obama. I think he is great. I’m here to talk about my dad and what he would bring to the country,” said Matt Romney.

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What did you want him to say… Obama sucks. I can see that going viral… ‘Racist, homophobic, rich son of…’.
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Your chage of the quote was dispicable, linking to an article with zero comments, and most likely 3 total views (yours and mine yesterday, and mine again today)… is LMAO…

RalphyBoy on September 11, 2012 at 12:34 PM

The PPP Ohio survey is also +9 for women. That is absurd. There may be a 51-49 female/male split among Ohio voters; perhaps 52-48. But it is certainly NOT 54-45! Why did PPP over-sample women? Take a wild guess…

Colony14 on September 11, 2012 at 5:48 PM

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