PPP puts Obama up 5 in Ohio

posted at 11:21 am on September 10, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Will Oiho Ohio Democrats turn out in record numbers this November, even eclipsing the 2008 wave election that allowed Barack Obama to win the state by five points in 2008?  If so, then PPP predicts a similar outcome in its latest survey of the Buckeye State, but that model might raise a few eyebrows:

PPP’s first post-conventions poll in Ohio finds Barack Obama with a 5 point lead over Mitt Romney, 50-45. This is the largest lead PPP has found for Obama in an Ohio poll since early May. Last month Obama led 48-45.

Both candidates have seen their images improve with Ohio voters in the wake of the conventions. Obama now breaks even in his approval rating at 48%, after being under water with 46% of voters approving and 51% disapproving of him a month ago. Romney’s numbers are up from a 41/52 favorability rating a month ago as well, but he still remains unpopular. Only 44% see him favorably to 49% with a negative opinion.

Romney actually leads 46-44 with independents but Obama has the overall advantage thanks to a more unified party base. He leads 86/11 with Democrats, compared to Romney’s 83/13 advantage with Republicans. Obama’s 75 point lead within his own party is up from 70 points a month ago, suggesting that his party has coalesced around him a little bit more in the wake of a successful convention. By a 47/35 margin Ohio voters say they think the Democrats had a better convention than the Republicans.

The point about independents gets to the heart of the issue with this poll.  The sample has a D/R/I split of 41/37/22.  The 37% that Republicans get in this survey matches their 2010 midterm turnout, which had a D/R/I of 36/37/28.  The 41% for Democrats significantly exceeds that turnout, and also exceeds the 2008 election’s 39/31/30 exit polling that produced the five-point margin of Obama victory in the election.

The big drop in independents from the sample is well worth noting, because Obama won Ohio independents by eight points in 2008, 52/44 — greater than his five-point margin of victory.  If Romney is up by two in this demographic, that’s a ten-point swing among what had been 28-30% of the turnout in Ohio elections.  Nothing in this poll suggests that Ohio has suddenly become a lot more Democratic except the sample itself; even in this sample, Obama’s job approval is only 48/48 (only 51/44 among women), and a -14 among independents, 40/54.

Ohio looks deadlocked if one considers the modeling used, and even perhaps edging toward Romney when looking at the independents.  I’d wait on hitting panic buttons here until seeing something with a better likely-voter model.


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Romney, Ryan sound bipartisan tone on taxes, health care

This is how we lose, when Republicans run as pretend Democrats the majority will pick the authentic grievance and pander mongers every time. If you want something to blame for bad polling this is it.

The Conservative message will win but it has to be well presented, let the left play with themselves, articulate the message, loudly, proudly, apologetically, and defend Conservatism passionately.

Speakup on September 10, 2012 at 11:52 AM

Pi$$ Poor Poll should follow instructions from Barry/Axelrod, and put in a +13 D in Ohio, like it did in NC to get a Barry 49, Romney 48. Do your part to sell the meme of a post convention tsunami. Why just a measly +4?

bayview on September 10, 2012 at 11:53 AM

So this poll is saying that Democrat turn out will go up by five points over 2010 and Republican participation will remain the same. Oh, and 2% more Democrats will vote than 2008. Uh huh. And I’m the King of Siam.

RadClown on September 10, 2012 at 11:53 AM

No offense to people who live in Ohio, but I feel sorry for you- I see Cleveland going the way of Detroit if something doesn’t change.

Kristamatic on September 10, 2012 at 11:31 AM

I’ve lived in the Cleveland suburbs all my life, and I’ve seen Cleveland proper go from a beautiful, vibrant city to a dump with areas that you wouldn’t travel to without an armed guard. Unfortunately, the “inner ring” suburbs are now also being impacted.

With the Democrat and union stranglehold on both Cuyahoga County and the city of Cleveland, is it any wonder that we’re facing a Detroit-like future?

GrannyDee on September 10, 2012 at 11:54 AM

“The polling firms are attempting to influence the outcome, not report the facts.”

So Rasmussen is “cooking the books” to influence the outcome, huh?

Even though he uses a likely voter model and his sample is GOP +1?

This is the same “attack the pollsters” delusion that occurred in 96 and 2008.

gumbyandpokey on September 10, 2012 at 11:54 AM

In all seriousness, if it weren’t for skewed samples and biased questions, the race would still be virtually tied, or Romney would have a very slight lead.

Interestingly enough, New Mexico polling had shown Obama with about a 13-point lead. A new poll from the Albuquerque Journal, taking during the DNC, puts it at Obama 45, Romney 40.

That’s actually a pretty hopeful sign.

steebo77 on September 10, 2012 at 11:48 AM

That’s actually great news. Obama stuck at 45% in New Mexico means that state is in play. Provided Romney devotes some resources to it. They did elect a Republican governor in 2010 and Bush won it in 2004, so it’s receptive to the GOP if they actually try to win it.

Doughboy on September 10, 2012 at 11:55 AM

SWalker on September 10, 2012 at 11:34 AM

Hey, I saw the Feinstein thread and thought of you – interested in your thoughts. Does Emkin have a chance?

22044 on September 10, 2012 at 11:41 AM

Feinstein keeps her senate seat because she has more money than GOD and buys her seat. Unless Emkin can find the funding necessary to out pay Feinstein or Feinstein does something unbelievable like dropping dead, then probably not.

Feinstein refusing to debate Emkin amounts to Emkin not having enough money to force a debate. Without the debate, Emkin simply never makes it into the media spotlight, ergo no chance what so ever, since basically nobody even knows Emkin is running.

SWalker on September 10, 2012 at 11:55 AM

Are we spitting into the wind? Perhaps it’s time to begin developing ways to avoid the wrath of the next four years and let every individual watch out for his/her interests in the best ways available. Old traditional values no longer apply and the populace have decided to become wards of the government. If you can’t fight it then take action to reduce the affects of a fallen Republic. Sad but true.

rplat on September 10, 2012 at 11:55 AM

Regardless of whether you believe the polls or not, you can sense the momentum Romney had campaigning after the Ryan pick is long gone. He seemed like he would be getting more aggressive, but he’s back to passive, boring Mitt again.

gumbyandpokey on September 10, 2012 at 11:56 AM

First and foremost – There is NO publicly published poll that is not serving someone’s agenda.

Why? Because statistically accurate polling costs too much money to be given away for free.

Second – Pollsters ALL have a dirty little secret this year. Polling is something MANY people are avoiding like the plague.

Why? Anyone paying attention to the “Chicago style” campaign the SCOAMF is running? Pollsters now call and ask for specific people in the household by name. Do you normally discuss your political views with strangers who know you but you don’t know anything about them?

Third - Public opinion is STILL forming. Having the conventions used to mean a lot of people watching the conventions. This is no longer true.

Why? There are so many other viewing choices even in just the last four years.

Best statistic for last week?

Clinton’s speech tied with “Honey Boo Boo Chile” – if you don’t know what the latter item is – look it up on Youtube. The irony is exquisite.

PolAgnostic on September 10, 2012 at 11:56 AM

Intrade follows Polls… nothing more, nothing less… They do not have any additional information beside public polls… So please folks stop quoting intrade…

But…but it makes me sound so smart when I quote Intrade! It helps extend the comments section into multiple pages full of boilerplate and saves me from generating original thought!

jangle12 on September 10, 2012 at 11:57 AM

I guess the convention really did give Obama a boost.

Apparently more people than I thought love abortion and free condoms, and hate God and Israel.

The Rogue Tomato on September 10, 2012 at 11:58 AM

GrannyDee on September 10, 2012 at 11:54 AM

You are exactly right- I grew up in Avon Lake, on the West side, and lived on the East side for a couple of decades. There was just no reason to stay.

Kristamatic on September 10, 2012 at 11:58 AM

SWalker on September 10, 2012 at 11:55 AM

Thanks. I guess Feinstein will probably keep that seat the rest of her time on earth.

22044 on September 10, 2012 at 11:58 AM

Every poll that shows Obama ahead is flawed and, if analyzed correctly, actually shows that Romney is ahead.

Got it.

YYZ on September 10, 2012 at 11:59 AM

all about suppressing voter turnout for R’s ….. lsm and their polling allies in full swing.

maineconservative on September 10, 2012 at 11:45 AM

+ 10..Very good point!..:)

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 11:59 AM

No offense to people who live in Ohio, but I feel sorry for you- I see Cleveland going the way of Detroit if something doesn’t change.

Kristamatic on September 10, 2012 at 11:31 AM

There’s a difference between Cleveland and Detroit?

Really?

Who knew…

Bruno Strozek on September 10, 2012 at 12:00 PM

Bruno Strozek on September 10, 2012 at 12:00 PM
Yes- there is: Browns fans.

Kristamatic on September 10, 2012 at 12:01 PM

Nothing like staking the polls to get the results you want.

GarandFan on September 10, 2012 at 12:01 PM

The lack of Independent voters in this poll could be a sign that they are less likely to respond to pollsters than partisan Democrats and Republicans.

If Democrats are called by PPP(D), known to be a Democrat polling firm, they will gleefully tell PPP(D) they are voting for Obama. If Republicans are called, they might want to snub PPP(D) by saying they are voting Romney. But Independent voters may be unwilling to tip their hand to a pollster known to have a Democrat tilt, and possibly hang up the phone before answering the question on the Presidential election.

Steve Z on September 10, 2012 at 12:01 PM

Honey

Schadenfreude on September 10, 2012 at 12:02 PM

Rovin on September 10, 2012 at 11:50 AM

LoLz..Good one!..:)

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 12:02 PM

Was in rural Ohio in late August and had an interesting conversation with a woman who co-owned the local watering hole I dropped by. She’d moved south from Columbus for her kid and was quite clear that one reason for the move was the, shall we say, growing “ethnic” population of the Columbus area. After a time we moved on to politics, which was tempted to avoid, it being vacation and me being more interested in beer than the election that day. After I confessed to being a Democrat,she we t on for a bit about howshe was going to probably vote for Obama, too, because “he’s at least starting to clean up this mess that got dumped on him.”

You don’t want to read too much into one conversation, but I remember thinking that if Romney’s losing the vote of a white small business owner in rural Ohio, who has no great love for the whole diversity thing, he’s in deep s***.

I also spent a pleasant hour in a mostly white, middle/working class bar- restaurant in Toledo, and was pleased to notice that the paper placemat proudly announced that it was the product if “toledo’s newest union printer.”

I think romney’s going to have a tough time in that state.

urban elitist on September 10, 2012 at 12:03 PM

Read Romney Team’s email in the headlines. It’s good.

gracie on September 10, 2012 at 12:03 PM

We in Red states need to find a way to protect ourselves from Liberal Blue state refugees. They are an existential threat.

Charlemagne on September 10, 2012 at 11:34 AM

Kill all handouts. I mean, all of them, no exception. If the fedzilla monster wants to be in the welfare business, let it. Being soft and fluffy and Christ-pleasing with someone else’s money is a worse sin than being cruel and stone-hearted.

Archivarix on September 10, 2012 at 12:05 PM

GrannyDee on September 10, 2012 at 11:54 AM

You are exactly right- I grew up in Avon Lake, on the West side, and lived on the East side for a couple of decades. There was just no reason to stay.

Kristamatic on September 10, 2012 at 11:58 AM

Yes, I’m quite familiar with Avon Lake. Beautiful area. Don’t know where you lived on the East side, but one thing’s for sure: People with any smarts in the Cleveland ‘burbs do all they can to avoid traveling directly through Cleveland when having to drive east to west and vice versa.

If the housing market weren’t so depressed in Cuyahoga County, I’d be more than happy to sell and move to a conservative southern or southwestern state.

GrannyDee on September 10, 2012 at 12:05 PM

SWalker on September 10, 2012 at 11:55 AM

Thanks. I guess Feinstein will probably keep that seat the rest of her time on earth.

22044 on September 10, 2012 at 11:58 AM

Probably even after. When I say she has illegally funneled HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS to her husbands construction company that is no exaggeration, HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, AS IN AS IN 800 BILLION DOLLARS OR MORE.

Money she illegally funneled to her husbands construction company that came out of everyone’s pocket. Money that basically allowed her to buy California lock stock and barrel.

Yes Dianne Feinstein should be serving time along with her husband in a federal prison, instead she basically owns and operates California as her own personal fiefdom.

SWalker on September 10, 2012 at 12:05 PM

all about suppressing voter turnout for R’s ….. lsm and their polling allies in full swing.

maineconservative on September 10, 2012 at 11:45 AM

+ 10..Very good point!..:)

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 11:59 AM

Waking up in Hitler’s Bunker.

SWalker on September 10, 2012 at 12:06 PM

Attack, attack, attack. To paraphrase Sarah Palin, leave the polls to the skiers.

rrpjr on September 10, 2012 at 12:07 PM

You don’t want to read too much into one conversation, but I remember thinking that if Romney’s losing the vote of a white small business owner in rural Ohio, who has no great love for the whole diversity thing, he’s in deep s***.

I also spent a pleasant hour in a mostly white, middle/working class bar- restaurant in Toledo, and was pleased to notice that the paper placemat proudly announced that it was the product if “toledo’s newest union printer.”

I think romney’s going to have a tough time in that state.

urban elitist on September 10, 2012 at 12:03 PM

Who said that Romney had her vote in the first place? Is she a Republican?

changer1701 on September 10, 2012 at 12:07 PM

Saw many Obama ads this weekend saw no Rmney ads.

steel guy on September 10, 2012 at 12:07 PM

I’ve noticed a great many people on this site who are paying a great deal of attention to the polls and tend to react strongly every time a poll is released that ostensibly puts Obama in the lead.

First, as Ed has consistently pointed out ad infinitum, a poll simply a sampling mechanism. The results are directly related to the spread, how the question was asked, how large the sampling was, and timing.

Polls are notoriously unreliable at this point in an election. They tend to become less volatile and increasingly more reliable the last 6 weeks before the actual election, however, when the votes are cast and tabulated, we often find that even the most meticulous polls were flawed and, in the final analysis, not a good indicator of what was actually happening with the electorate.

Because of the issues related to how the poll questions are put to the subjects of the poll and the direct effect that has on the way in which the subjects answer, polls are only one indicator of the temperature of the electorate leading into any election, and often, not the most reliable one.

thatsafactjack on September 10, 2012 at 12:08 PM

Regardless of whether you believe the polls or not, you can sense the momentum Romney had campaigning after the Ryan pick is long gone. He seemed like he would be getting more aggressive, but he’s back to passive, boring Mitt again.

gumbyandpokey on September 10, 2012 at 11:56 AM

What’s next? Internet hypnosis? We are getting very sleeeeepy, there is no point in voting, all is looooooooost, no one can dispute a PPP polllllllll….

Night Owl on September 10, 2012 at 12:09 PM

PPP is the outfit that worked for kos right?

That aside.. The fact is to jme, I live in Ohio.. Newark.. about 40 miles from Columbus.. and while Obama carrying Columbus is a given since urban centers are the democrats ONLY real strength….

Everything I see on the ground here, says ALL the energy and passion is on the get rid of the B*stard column.. I went to a Mitt rally, and when they predicted a showing of 3000 people.. 5000 showed up.. and the hecklers numbered about 15.. All clustered togther clutching their “I HATE YOU” signs to wave at Mitt.

I never spoke a word to any of them.. and one 60 something black female Obama fanatic gave my daughter (13) gas because she merely said “Hi” as we passed her,.. the very few Obama fans there were not happy people..

All the passion is to get rid of the guy most of us see as just making a lousy economy worse.. and joblessness in Newark is very high.. The social charity networks like food pantry’s are overwhelmed.. homeless shelters.. I myself have taken in two single mom sister’s in law.. and their 4 children.. six extra people to house and care for.. and I’m only on a disability pension.. SSD.

Folks in Ohio see no recovery… the private sector is NOT doing fine.. and Obama is not seen as the shining knight he was sold as… not even among his voters..

The only folks who are passionate on the dem side, are that way because they simply HATE republicans more than they are disappointed in Obama..

Mitt is going to win Ohio… all the energy on the ground is on the right.

mark81150 on September 10, 2012 at 12:09 PM

listen to Rush. he’s on fire!

gracie on September 10, 2012 at 12:11 PM

listen to Rush. he’s on fire!

gracie on September 10, 2012 at 12:11 PM

I agree!!..The ABR’s really need to..:)

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 12:12 PM

SWalker on September 10, 2012 at 12:06 PM

Nice blog post!..:)

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 12:13 PM

gracie on September 10, 2012 at 12:11 PM

I am and he is on fire! He said he has never seen it this bad to try and get R’s discouraged(not direct quote).
L

letget on September 10, 2012 at 12:15 PM

when the votes are cast and tabulated, we often find that even the most meticulous polls were flawed and, in the final analysis, not a good indicator of what was actually happening with the electorate.

thatsafactjack on September 10, 2012 at 12:08 PM

June 5th comes to mind.

Flora Duh on September 10, 2012 at 12:16 PM

Honey

Schadenfreude on September 10, 2012 at 12:02 PM

LOL! Although it might be good for all parents to do that to their children to show them just how stupid and damaging that line of thinking is, and where it leads.

Night Owl on September 10, 2012 at 12:17 PM

I also spent a pleasant hour in a mostly white, middle/working class bar- restaurant in Toledo, and was pleased to notice that the paper placemat proudly announced that it was the product if “toledo’s newest union printer.”

I think romney’s going to have a tough time in that state.

urban elitist on September 10, 2012 at 12:03 PM

Hahahahahaha, the fact that you mention Toledo is all I need to know about how stupid you really are. Toledo can also be known as Little Cleveland in most regards and it’s also Ohio’s equivalent to Dearborn.

MobileVideoEngineer on September 10, 2012 at 12:17 PM

@ changer

We didn’t get down to whether she’s a registered D or R. Just found it interest that she was smack dab in the middle of the Romney demographic — middle age, non-yuppie white small business owner.

Made me wonder if the ” you didn’t build it” attacks were missing and the “war on women” stuff was. Of course, if you own a bar you don’t have time to watch much TV — except sports (and Court TV, is her place), so maybe neither meme was reaching its intended target.

At any rate, just as Obama needs every union, student and minority vote, Romney needs her’s. If he isn’t getting it, he’s hurting.

Again, just throwing this out as a discussion point.

urban elitist on September 10, 2012 at 12:17 PM

Regardless of whether you believe the polls or not, you can sense the momentum Romney had campaigning after the Ryan pick is long gone. He seemed like he would be getting more aggressive, but he’s back to passive, boring Mitt again.

gumbyandpokey on September 10, 2012 at 11:56 AM

Like Hell….

The ONLY energy here in Ohio is against Obama and FOR Romney.. the only thing that Obama fans got going for them here, is a raging need to smear any opposition to their God-King..

If you cannot really feel the momentum.. then your partisanship is showing. The Buckeye state is hurting,.. the jobs Obama promised never appeared.. and his campaign is to wage a war of terror on his voters to convince them Mitt is Satan….

Mitt wants to “bring back Jim Crowe”?

only a complete retard would say and believe that. It’s not the campaign of a guy who’s winning.

mark81150 on September 10, 2012 at 12:18 PM

SWalker on September 10, 2012 at 12:06 PM

Nice blog post!..:)

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 12:13 PM

Thank you Dire, I think the next one is going to be about conspiracy theories and how they have blinded American’s to what is happening right in front of their faces.

SWalker on September 10, 2012 at 12:18 PM

A friend of a friend of a friend told me

Romney 62
Obama 38

gerrym51 on September 10, 2012 at 12:19 PM

Ohio looks deadlocked if one considers the modeling used, and even perhaps edging toward Romney when looking at the independents. I’d wait on hitting panic buttons here until seeing something with a better likely-voter model.

..too late, Ed. Everyone here on HG are getting jelly-kneed over a few convention-bumped, Dem-skewed pools over the weekend and going full-Eeyore.

“Dunno, George, it’s gettin’ kinda cold here in Valley Forge. Maybe we can negotiate with the King for a better tax deal or something.”

The War Planner on September 10, 2012 at 12:20 PM

SWalker on September 10, 2012 at 12:18 PM

Good deal..:)

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 12:22 PM

Again, just throwing this out as a discussion point.

urban elitist on September 10, 2012 at 12:17 PM

Well, okay. I’m in PA and I heard a union worker on the radio say that even though the union bosses are pushing Obama, the workers are all scared to death of a second Obama term. He said every morning he stops at Sheetz for coffee, and he talks to everyone he sees about what a disaster Obama has been. Ergo, Obama cannot win Pennsylvania.

Night Owl on September 10, 2012 at 12:23 PM

Rush is bringing the heat!

Big Orange on September 10, 2012 at 12:23 PM

..too late, Ed. Everyone here on HG are getting jelly-kneed over a few convention-bumped, Dem-skewed pools over the weekend and going full-Eeyore.

“Dunno, George, it’s gettin’ kinda cold here in Valley Forge. Maybe we can negotiate with the King for a better tax deal or something.”

The War Planner on September 10, 2012 at 12:20 PM

And all it does is stir up idiot trolls like Urban Elitist who apparently doesn’t realize that there are a lot of people here who are very familiar with Ohio (myself being one) and can easily dispute his stupidity. Toledo?!?! I’m still laughing about that.

MobileVideoEngineer on September 10, 2012 at 12:23 PM

The War Planner on September 10, 2012 at 12:20 PM

Hold on a second..I have your back!..We can do this!!..:)

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 12:23 PM

MVE: educate me. Equivalent to Dearborn for its Arab population (wasn’t Cpl. Clinger Lebanese)? Or for its down at the heels manufacturing economy? At any rate, I mentioned Toledo because we just happened to spend the night there, not because, I necessarily found it emblematic of the state. From an electoral
point of view, the area where I talked to the varyender was much more interesting.

urban elitist on September 10, 2012 at 12:25 PM

“The polling firms are attempting to influence the outcome, not report the facts.”

This is the same “attack the pollsters” delusion that occurred in 96 and 2008.

gumbyandpokey on September 10, 2012 at 11:54 AM

Your protest sounds hollow when you looked at PPP’s agenda pushing poll on Akin, after his Aug 17 TV interview debacle, with an +9 R overweight.

bayview on September 10, 2012 at 12:26 PM

The War Planner on September 10, 2012 at 12:20 PM

Hold on a second..I have your back!..We can do this!!..:)

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 12:23 PM

I don’t know… Looks like rain we should consulate with Eeyorepundit first… ;p

SWalker on September 10, 2012 at 12:26 PM

I LOVE the enthusiasm on the site, but I still have a hard time looking at these polls and seeing the good news.

Gallup was within 2 points of the actual 2008 vote.
Rasmussen was nearly the same.

Romney STILL should be leading if all the talk about the economy, Republican enthusiasm, more conservatives than Liberals, etc etc…

For cripes sake, the Democrat’s convention was Pro Abortion, Anti-God and was just a Union Love Fest. Obama’s speech offered NOTHING.

Yet charisma and Revival-like speeches give him a 5 point bounce FIVE days after the convention closes….

GadsdenRattlers on September 10, 2012 at 12:27 PM

Was in rural Ohio in late August and had an interesting conversation with a woman who co-owned the local watering hole I dropped by. She’d moved south from Columbus for her kid and was quite clear that one reason for the move was the, shall we say, growing “ethnic” population of the Columbus area. After a time we moved on to politics, which was tempted to avoid, it being vacation and me being more interested in beer than the election that day. After I confessed to being a Democrat,she we t on for a bit about howshe was going to probably vote for Obama, too, because “he’s at least starting to clean up this mess that got dumped on him.”

You don’t want to read too much into one conversation, but I remember thinking that if Romney’s losing the vote of a white small business owner in rural Ohio, who has no great love for the whole diversity thing, he’s in deep s***.

urban elitist on September 10, 2012 at 12:03 PM

You believed her? Once you told her you are a democrat, she undoubtedly wanted to remove the taint of her “racism” by telling you she was an Obama supporter. No smart retailer publicly espouses one candidate or the other, especially if they are located in areas heavily populated by persons whose political leanings oppose theirs. Nor does a smart retailer alienate total strangers, and thus risk losing business, by publicly espousing a political position at odds with the customer’s. I wouldn’t read too much into that conversation is advice you should take yourself.

totherightofthem on September 10, 2012 at 12:27 PM

MVE: educate me.

urban elitist on September 10, 2012 at 12:25 PM

Not possible, you’re an imbecile studying to be a moron and failing miserably.

SWalker on September 10, 2012 at 12:27 PM

RNC is hitting us HARD right now in Ohio. I get crappy cell service in my apartment so I have a landline, and the RNC calls it literally every single day. Sometimes more than once. I don’t use that phone for anything except outbound calls – I don’t give the number out.

I also know from a couple of grassroots orgs (Ohio Liberty Council, etc) that there are a lot of neighborhood walkarounds for our state candidates like Mandel.

We typically get a lot more ‘noise’ because we’re a battleground state (and Columbus in particular is fairly 50/50 in terms of dem/rep) but I’ve never seen it like this before.

tdpwells on September 10, 2012 at 12:27 PM

Romney is treading water, and if he stays on the current trajectory, he will lose in November.

I had some optimism after Ryan was named VP, and the week thereafter it seemed like Romney actually wanted to win. Now, that is all gone.

Sorry, but if Romney doesn’t change course quickly and becomes MUCH MORE agressive in his attacks against Obama, it’s Game Over.

Norwegian on September 10, 2012 at 11:29 AM

..we here wish to ofer our sincere and heratfelt thanks for sharing your concerns and inner feelings. We’d also take it the optimism bravo sierra you just posted more seriously if you didn’t have a consistent track record as a full-blown troll.

FOAD.

The War Planner on September 10, 2012 at 12:29 PM

Ten bucks says AP is warming up the melting chocolate bunny videos as we speak.

crazy_legs on September 10, 2012 at 11:27 AM

You wish. He’s switched to that awful Russell Brand Olympics video. The bunny was depressing, the Brand thing is borderline suicidal.

batter on September 10, 2012 at 12:30 PM

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows President Obama attracting support from 50% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns 45% of the vote.

Rasmussen has Mitt down 5 nationally. Not looking good.

However I do not trust polls much at this point. The real campaign has hardly begun. So you can take with a grain of salt. However most here would sure wish Romey were not behind.

It is looking like Obama got a 5 point bounce though. Him getting to 50% is troubling for Romney for sure. Will be interesting to see the Romney Camp reaction.

Steveangell on September 10, 2012 at 12:30 PM

I lived in Ohio for half my life and have family there. Ohio is a divided state. Cuyahoga County and the Youngstown area are Dem strongholds. But the Youngstown area is a funny one, and not just because of Jim Traficant. Even though it’s Dem central it does elect Repubs. They are usually so-called moderate Repubs but anything’s better than Sherrod Brown and Dennis Kucinich…okay maybe not DeWine.

It’s the central, south, and Dayton/Columbus/ Cinncinnatti area that will really decide this election in Ohio. And that’s where Romney needs to focus.

I just don’t see wasting time on Cleveland home of Peter Lewis.
As another poster said, it could go the way of Detroit but I don’t see that happening. It doesn’t rely so much on one industry and once in a while it’s leadership isn’t totally stupid. Plus investors like Lewis, CLeveland Clinic, etc. will help to keep it afloat. But it’s still a lost cause for Repubs.

Also there was a pretty good size base of Paul supporters, most of whom would never vote for Obama. And since they never heard of Gary Johnson they will probably bite the bullet and vote Romney…Rand Paul could help here.
The Tea Party is pretty active via the Ohio Liberty Council so Romney needs their support and I believe he’ll get it. They’re definitely ABO.

I see Ohio and PA in play and definitely possible Romney wins.

Deanna on September 10, 2012 at 12:31 PM

Bald Baghdad Bob massaging the numbers to make the morons feel safe!

He just sees things so deeply! You sad ass bullies are getting steamrolled and people seem to be enjoying it.

tommyhawk on September 10, 2012 at 12:31 PM

SWalker on September 10, 2012 at 12:26 PM

lolz..:)

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 12:31 PM

urban – we all have the anecdotal stuff both for and against – I would see her as a bar owner catering to union types – Toledo still has a few – and so a typical union voter and therefore dem voter, although she clearly is thinking about maybe not pulling for Obama.

Nevertheless – the problem I still see is no obvious examples of a strong, excited local Obama presence. Maybe they are out there and we just don’t see it.

What I see is even the MSM reporting rally’s that are under-attended, and anecdotal evidence of no signage for Obama.

gumby – yep we all highlight the good ones and throw out the bad. The Jay Cost article I linked to earlier I think tells the more accurate tale.

Zomcon JEM on September 10, 2012 at 12:31 PM

Norwegian on September 10, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Ignore all the Saul Alinsky types here that attack anyone that dare speak the truth about how Mitt is losing and how liberal Mitt is.

Steveangell on September 10, 2012 at 12:33 PM

Rasmussen has Mitt down 5 nationally. Not looking good.

Steveangell on September 10, 2012 at 12:30 PM

What do you mean, not good? It’s got you tingling all down your leg like a Journolister on a hallucinogenic (MSLSD) Cable News channel.

SWalker on September 10, 2012 at 12:34 PM

Regardless of whether you believe the polls or not, you can sense the momentum Romney had campaigning after the Ryan pick is long gone. He seemed like he would be getting more aggressive, but he’s back to passive, boring Mitt again.

gumbyandpokey on September 10, 2012 at 11:56 AM
Like Hell….

The ONLY energy here in Ohio is against Obama and FOR Romney.. the only thing that Obama fans got going for them here, is a raging need to smear any opposition to their God-King..

If you cannot really feel the momentum.. then your partisanship is showing. The Buckeye state is hurting,.. the jobs Obama promised never appeared.. and his campaign is to wage a war of terror on his voters to convince them Mitt is Satan….

Mitt wants to “bring back Jim Crowe”?

only a complete retard would say and believe that. It’s not the campaign of a guy who’s winning.

mark81150 on September 10, 2012 at 12:18 PM

Gumby, who has never met a pro-Obama poll result he didn’t immediately trumpet, actually said the other day that he is “not for” Obama.
That he is actually just an impartial poster who reports what he sees.
Truth is, he is the most transparent troll out there in his “impartial” effort to disspirit GOP voters. Paid mobys like him actually serve to do exactly the opposite of what they intend to.
Sorry Gumby, you can post here every day from now ’til Nov. 5 with your “Gee whiz, Obama’s sooo darn likeable” pablum, and it will not change one mind on this forum.

Right Mover on September 10, 2012 at 12:36 PM

Rassmussen has Maobama up 50-45 nationally.

BrianVII on September 10, 2012 at 12:38 PM

I believe Romney/Ryan will take Ohio and Pennsylvania.

stukinIL4now on September 10, 2012 at 12:40 PM

Ignore all the Saul Alinsky types here that attack anyone that dare speak the truth about how Mitt is losing and how liberal Mitt is.

Steveangell on September 10, 2012 at 12:33 PM

So, I see you didn’t learn much. Still trying to waste time and just stroking your ego.

Deanna on September 10, 2012 at 12:40 PM

I was in a union for 17 years.. and yeah they said ya “gotta vote democrat”… which I and a signifigant group of union workers ignored..

To gauge Ohio by Toledo is insane.. another dying dinosaur big union town run by another old democrat machine.

In a semi-rural county.. the majority here,.. people are vastly less sympathetic to what union bosses want, there are lots of small manufacturers around Licking County.. few, very few are union shops.

and there aren’t likely Obama voters.. and the rule is to resent and dislike government employees, and their pampered existence.. the stories of the local AFB are legion..

People who struggle have a dim view of government union employees not only getting paid much more than they get, but then whining about it… Screaming about Kasich who is doing well now… because the “fair share” Obama complains about?… Union folks think ANY sacrifice from a UNION employee is not only forbidden, but illegal to even mention. Their facebook pages are ugly nasty places to be..

Ohio is going for Mitt..

We’re tired of a lost decade and a democrat machine that thinks a recovery is for their cronies and no one else.

mark81150 on September 10, 2012 at 12:40 PM

I lived in Ohio for half my life and have family there. Ohio is a divided state. Cuyahoga County and the Youngstown area are Dem strongholds. But the Youngstown area is a funny one, and not just because of Jim Traficant. Even though it’s Dem central it does elect Repubs. They are usually so-called moderate Repubs but anything’s better than Sherrod Brown and Dennis Kucinich…okay maybe not DeWine.

It’s the central, south, and Dayton/Columbus/ Cinncinnatti area that will really decide this election in Ohio. And that’s where Romney needs to focus.

I see Ohio and PA in play and definitely possible Romney wins.

Deanna on September 10, 2012 at 12:31 PM

I was born and raised in Ohio and just left in July of 2009. North of Mansfield is pretty much lost which is why I’m still laughing at Urban Idiot about his Toledo comment. With Obama’s war on coal and his sure war on fracking, I think Eastern Ohio is lost for Obama and that is a BFD as that is normally a Democrat stronghold as well, so if they blame a loss in Ohio on racism in Eastern Ohio, remember that’s a Democrat stronghold.

MobileVideoEngineer on September 10, 2012 at 12:41 PM

Don’t miss this nice rant on the Romney=Obama whiners: Spreading Fear and Despondency

“And don’t you talk to me about another chance in 2016. You have no idea what you’re talking about. No, we’re not Argentina. No, we’re not Greece. We don’t have a bigger, healthier economy to prop us up when we fall. When we fall, civilization goes down for the count with us. It’s not another partisan contest. Yes, it’s that important. When you aid and abet the other side you’re slipping a knife between the ribs of civilization.”

slickwillie2001 on September 10, 2012 at 12:41 PM

Totherightofthem:

Nah. She didn’t seem concerned way or the other about her views or mine. Just a friendly conversation on a slow afternoon (we spent more time talking about the Drew Peterson case and our kids than anything).

Zomcon: the bar owner was in SE Ohio. Toledo was a different stop.

Lack of local presence is illuminating. You’re apparently on the ground there, but I didn’t notice much presence either way — bumper stickers, yards signs etc. are you seeing more GOP e edgy than is immediately visible?

Could be a low turnout inthe Buckeye State. We’ll see how the ground game goes.

urban elitist on September 10, 2012 at 12:43 PM

mark81150 on September 10, 2012 at 12:40 PM

Toledo may as well be in southern Michigan, really. LOL.

tdpwells on September 10, 2012 at 12:45 PM

Right Mover on September 10, 2012 at 12:36 PM

Thanks.. I really haven’t posted much in the last month.. and hadn’t seen his comments before..

But I really do see the momentum here.. even independents and some democrats I know say the same.. Mitt is gaining, if not already ahead.. the talk among the people I know, is most see Mitt winning in a blow out..

This far out.. Reagan was behind Carter.. by 9.. Bush in 04 behind Kerry by 4..

The polls don’t mean much right now.. and never have..So I don’t see why online some folks want to panic..

mark81150 on September 10, 2012 at 12:45 PM

Zomcon: the bar owner was in SE Ohio. Toledo was a different stop.

urban elitist on September 10, 2012 at 12:43 PM

WOW. REALLY?!?! You said south of Columbus, you didn’t say SE Ohio. There is a HUGE difference. SE Ohio is a MAJOR Democrat stronghold so anything beyond what you described would be a surprise to me. Hahahaha, I will be laughing all day. Thanks.

MobileVideoEngineer on September 10, 2012 at 12:47 PM

Was in rural Ohio in late August and had an interesting conversation with a woman who co-owned the local watering hole I dropped by. She’d moved south from Columbus for her kid and was quite clear that one reason for the move was the, shall we say, growing “ethnic” population of the Columbus area. After a time we moved on to politics, which was tempted to avoid, it being vacation and me being more interested in beer than the election that day. After I confessed to being a Democrat,she we t on for a bit about howshe was going to probably vote for Obama, too, because “he’s at least starting to clean up this mess that got dumped on him.”

You don’t want to read too much into one conversation, but I remember thinking that if Romney’s losing the vote of a white small business owner in rural Ohio, who has no great love for the whole diversity thing, he’s in deep s***.

urban elitist on September 10, 2012 at 12:03 PM

Well I call BS on this one. So exactly what town in “rural Ohio” was it? And “south from Columbus” because of “ethic” population? Give me a break. Either you’re shall we say embellishing or she had your number and was shining you on. Either way, why not just say you talked to one person in the entire state of Ohio and gee Romney’s in deep s***. Because that’s all that means. Heck, I talked to one small business owner in Pittsburgh(at least I give a town name) and they said they like Romney so I guess Obama’s in deep s***. See how that works?

Deanna on September 10, 2012 at 12:47 PM

What I see is even the MSM reporting rally’s that are under-attended, and anecdotal evidence of no signage for Obama.

Zomcon JEM on September 10, 2012 at 12:31 PM

I would not read too much into the attendence at these events. Obama is well known the economy is down but Romney is not proposing anything much different and Romney is not giving details that let the voters decide for themselves if what Romney thinks will work actually will work. Obama did that in 08 and look where we are.

To the democratic voters they have problems with Obama so they do not attend these things hoping Obama will wake up and start working with Congress or something. But they are not going to Romney events. They are not considering Romney as an alternative.

Someone posted a PBS article on Mormon Democrats yesterday. A woman from Mass was interviewed she said she really liked what Romney got done in Mass. That he accomplished all the things she wanted him to. However she did not like that he was now claiming his record was much different than it actually was. She she Romney could not be trusted because he always wavered on everything.

Romney is the problem. No matter how bad the other guy is you still have to sell yourself. So far Romney is NO SALE.

Steveangell on September 10, 2012 at 12:48 PM

A friend of a friend of a friend told me

Romney 62
Obama 38

gerrym51 on September 10, 2012 at 12:19 PM

Whoa, Dude!

Can I buy some ‘shrooms from your friend?

Bruno Strozek on September 10, 2012 at 12:48 PM

Gallup was within 2 points of the actual 2008 vote.
Rasmussen was nearly the same.

Romney STILL should be leading if all the talk about the economy, Republican enthusiasm, more conservatives than Liberals, etc etc…

For cripes sake, the Democrat’s convention was Pro Abortion, Anti-God and was just a Union Love Fest. Obama’s speech offered NOTHING.

Yet charisma and Revival-like speeches give him a 5 point bounce FIVE days after the convention closes….

GadsdenRattlers on September 10, 2012 at 12:27 PM

Was Gallup within 2 of the actual 2008 vote eight weeks before the election, though?

Right Mover on September 10, 2012 at 12:49 PM

Rasmussen has Mitt down 5 nationally. Not looking good.

Steveangell on September 10, 2012 at 12:30 PM

your concern is noted…

jimver on September 10, 2012 at 12:52 PM

Everyone really needs to be worried about Ohio. Urban Idiot took a poll of Toledo and SE Ohio and he got Obama 100% Romney 0%. OH NO!!! Hahahaha.

MobileVideoEngineer on September 10, 2012 at 12:52 PM

I’m sure most folks here saw the friendly reminder that Drudge had up yesterday regarding polls at this same time of year during Carter’s re-election campaign and Dukakis’s run?

Yeah. Just sayin.

tdpwells on September 10, 2012 at 12:52 PM

Don’t believe the polls, good or bad… Shock and Awe is coming.

RalphyBoy on September 10, 2012 at 12:52 PM

Well I call BS on this one. So exactly what town in “rural Ohio” was it? And “south from Columbus” because of “ethic” population? Give me a break. Either you’re shall we say embellishing or she had your number and was shining you on. Either way, why not just say you talked to one person in the entire state of Ohio and gee Romney’s in deep s***. Because that’s all that means. Heck, I talked to one small business owner in Pittsburgh(at least I give a town name) and they said they like Romney so I guess Obama’s in deep s***. See how that works?

Deanna on September 10, 2012 at 12:47 PM

Are you just trolling?

I mean he already said it was meaningless just one person.

Your BS call is BS.

I agree with you everybody here agrees one conversation is BS. But that does not mean that we can’t work through the BS and find something worth while in our conversations.

Steveangell on September 10, 2012 at 12:53 PM

MobileVideoEngineer on September 10, 2012 at 12:23 PM

The War Planner on September 10, 2012 at 12:20 PM

Hold on a second..I have your back!..We can do this!!..:)

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 12:23 PM

..you guys are the wind beneath my wings! You fire and I’ll reload! (And I just got into black powder, so I know how to do that!)

The War Planner on September 10, 2012 at 12:55 PM

There’s another web site that delves into the numbers on this, and I apologize if it’s been discussed. As others have noted, Carter was up by 4, and had extended his lead to eight by October. Polls can and are designed to give a specific result.

First, the weighting of the sample is +4 Democrats. I know that’s already been touched on. Second, the percentage of women as registered voters in Ohio is just over 51%. This sample has a bias of +9 weighting towards women. It figures as such; Obama does better with women, Romney with men. Adjusting for these biases, I give Romney a slight edge.

Quite honestly, if you sit on your asses and worry about this it’ll become a self-fulfilling prophecy. I personally feel that this poll is garbage, and the MSM is doing everything it can to drag these two losers over the finish line. That”ll only happen if we get demoralized and let them.

RPL on September 10, 2012 at 12:55 PM

If I am a union member in Ohio, and I get a phone call from a “pollster,” I am going to like like Hell to that pollster, because I don’t know if it’s really a pollster on the other end or a union mole calling on the sly.

I’m not a union member, and I’m not from Ohio. Nonetheless, if I get a call from a pollster (and I haven’t), there’s still a good chance that I’ll either hang up or lie to him.

Right Mover on September 10, 2012 at 12:56 PM

For cripes sake, the Democrat’s convention was Pro Abortion, Anti-God and was just a Union Love Fest. Obama’s speech offered NOTHING.

Yet charisma and Revival-like speeches give him a 5 point bounce FIVE days after the convention closes….

GadsdenRattlers on September 10, 2012 at 12:27 PM

So blame it on the f…ing retarted half of this country, that’s the intellectual level of the average voter in this country, they don’t know better, and you can’t spoon feed them common sense…besides, demographics is not on our side, and you know it…

jimver on September 10, 2012 at 12:57 PM

You don’t want to read too much into one conversation, but I remember thinking that if Romney’s losing the vote of a white small business owner in rural Ohio, who has no great love for the whole diversity thing, he’s in deep s***.

urban elitist on September 10, 2012 at 12:03 PM

Dude…..

I live in semi-rural Ohio, and you’re on crack if you think ONE person going reluctantly for Obama means a damn thing.. This is the kind of county where country road signs are full of bullet holes….

Where 4 out of 5 small factories are NON union.. where the County Courthouse Still has the Ten Commandments on a stone monument on it’s lawn… where McCain carried us by 10 points..

Obama is more likely to be the next I Carley than win rural Ohio..

You cannot be serious.

The county maps during the last election, out of 88 counties.. 78 always go red.. 78..

The difference is the margin of who’s more energized.. the ten urban blue.. or the 78 rural red..

and the energy here is NOT for Obama.

mark81150 on September 10, 2012 at 12:57 PM

Shock and Awe is coming.

RalphyBoy on September 10, 2012 at 12:52 PM

From Obama?

That I would believe.

From Romney.

Do not think so. After all Mitt thinks Obama is doing a great job just ask his spokesman son.

Steveangell on September 10, 2012 at 12:58 PM

I agree with you everybody here agrees one conversation is BS. But that does not mean that we can’t work through the BS and find something worth while in our conversations.

Steveangell on September 10, 2012 at 12:53 PM

..I think I’ve found your problem: you relish pawing through manure piles. Maybe cleaning up a few stables rather would be a little more productive for you as opposed to wasting our time here with your drivel.

The War Planner on September 10, 2012 at 12:59 PM

Retarded that is…

jimver on September 10, 2012 at 12:59 PM

As Rush so accurately put out today. The only polls that will truly matter are the ones about 2 weeks before the election when the pollsters will want to keep their credibility.

Scorched_Earth on September 10, 2012 at 12:59 PM

don’t know how Nixon Romney won. I don’t know anyone who voted for him.”

Gwillie on September 10, 2012 at 12:59 PM

mark81150 on September 10, 2012 at 12:57 PM

Hey Chill.

You just attacked him for saying the same thing you said in response.

You both agree one conversation has no real meaning.

Steveangell on September 10, 2012 at 1:00 PM

Dang wireless keyboard

“I don’t know how Nixon Romney won. I don’t know anyone who voted for him.”

Gwillie on September 10, 2012 at 1:02 PM

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