PPP puts Obama up 5 in Ohio

posted at 11:21 am on September 10, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Will Oiho Ohio Democrats turn out in record numbers this November, even eclipsing the 2008 wave election that allowed Barack Obama to win the state by five points in 2008?  If so, then PPP predicts a similar outcome in its latest survey of the Buckeye State, but that model might raise a few eyebrows:

PPP’s first post-conventions poll in Ohio finds Barack Obama with a 5 point lead over Mitt Romney, 50-45. This is the largest lead PPP has found for Obama in an Ohio poll since early May. Last month Obama led 48-45.

Both candidates have seen their images improve with Ohio voters in the wake of the conventions. Obama now breaks even in his approval rating at 48%, after being under water with 46% of voters approving and 51% disapproving of him a month ago. Romney’s numbers are up from a 41/52 favorability rating a month ago as well, but he still remains unpopular. Only 44% see him favorably to 49% with a negative opinion.

Romney actually leads 46-44 with independents but Obama has the overall advantage thanks to a more unified party base. He leads 86/11 with Democrats, compared to Romney’s 83/13 advantage with Republicans. Obama’s 75 point lead within his own party is up from 70 points a month ago, suggesting that his party has coalesced around him a little bit more in the wake of a successful convention. By a 47/35 margin Ohio voters say they think the Democrats had a better convention than the Republicans.

The point about independents gets to the heart of the issue with this poll.  The sample has a D/R/I split of 41/37/22.  The 37% that Republicans get in this survey matches their 2010 midterm turnout, which had a D/R/I of 36/37/28.  The 41% for Democrats significantly exceeds that turnout, and also exceeds the 2008 election’s 39/31/30 exit polling that produced the five-point margin of Obama victory in the election.

The big drop in independents from the sample is well worth noting, because Obama won Ohio independents by eight points in 2008, 52/44 — greater than his five-point margin of victory.  If Romney is up by two in this demographic, that’s a ten-point swing among what had been 28-30% of the turnout in Ohio elections.  Nothing in this poll suggests that Ohio has suddenly become a lot more Democratic except the sample itself; even in this sample, Obama’s job approval is only 48/48 (only 51/44 among women), and a -14 among independents, 40/54.

Ohio looks deadlocked if one considers the modeling used, and even perhaps edging toward Romney when looking at the independents.  I’d wait on hitting panic buttons here until seeing something with a better likely-voter model.


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Weak knees 3 2 1…..

Bmore on September 10, 2012 at 11:23 AM

…piss on PPP!

KOOLAID2 on September 10, 2012 at 11:23 AM

Or should that be, weak kneed, 3 2 1….?

Bmore on September 10, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Why don’t you mention Questions 14 & 15, Ed?

conservative pilgrim on September 10, 2012 at 11:24 AM

That’s PeePeePee. Worthless.

Now the Rasmussen Polls this morning do have me concerned. Obama 50-Romney 45. A bump in the approval index, too. Ras is pretty reliable.

WannabeAnglican on September 10, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Ohio looks deadlocked if one considers the modeling used, and even perhaps edging toward Romney when looking at the independents. I’d wait on hitting panic buttons here until seeing something with a better likely-voter model.

Thank you, Ed. We need a voice of reason and sanity on here. This poll is a joke if you know anything about the current makeup of the electorate. In fact, I’d argue it’s reassuring to Republicans and conservatives who were unnerved by the polls released over the weekend. If Romney wins Ohio(and his chances are looking very good based on this), he likely wins the election.

Doughboy on September 10, 2012 at 11:25 AM

I’d wait on hitting panic buttons here until seeing something with a better likely-voter model.

Bingo Capt Ed..I agree..:)

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 11:25 AM

record turnout by fluky biker women is guarantee

nathor on September 10, 2012 at 11:25 AM

I’ll wait until the election is over before panicking deciding what to do next.

Bishop on September 10, 2012 at 11:25 AM

Thanks for breaking things down Ed.

Imrahil on September 10, 2012 at 11:25 AM

…the country is turning from dumb to dumber…and lies are acceptible as fact nowadays.

KOOLAID2 on September 10, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Not gonna happen…

d1carter on September 10, 2012 at 11:26 AM

I’d wait on hitting panic buttons here until seeing something with a better likely-voter model.

Ten bucks says AP is warming up the melting chocolate bunny videos as we speak.

crazy_legs on September 10, 2012 at 11:27 AM

So they greatly over sample democrats, and greatly under sample independents which Mitt is way ahead on against Obama, and all he can get is +5? See this is why it’s pointless to focus on polls. Right now they’re only used for narrative creation. Don’t play, just focus on Nov. and vote.

Weight of Glory on September 10, 2012 at 11:27 AM

The dems win every poll, almost every election…whose the Ohio Governor?

Strickland also was the “front runner” he also was ahead in all of the polls…see a pattern here?

right2bright on September 10, 2012 at 11:27 AM

Isn’t that “Oiho”?

Schadenfreude on September 10, 2012 at 11:28 AM

I’d wait on hitting panic buttons here until seeing something with a better likely-voter model.

Bingo Capt Ed..I agree..:)

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 11:25 AM

Allahpundit will take care of that panic button thing when his shift starts this afternoon.

oldroy on September 10, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Damn I hate watching polls. The five point lead Rasmussen and Gallup is showing just makes me sick.

I just wish Romney would pull ahead in one…ONE big swing state. Something to give me a little hope that we can pull this off.

Gotta go sign up to make phone calls I guess.

GadsdenRattlers on September 10, 2012 at 11:29 AM

I don’t understand the thought of Ohio becoming more liberal either. I am one of the few conservatives I know from my graduating class that actually moved out of Ohio. Most of the people who have moved out of Ohio are some of the most liberal people I know. One moved to San Francisco and the other lives in Washington D.C. and is campaigning for Obama in Iowa. There are many others as well, but those are just 2 it proves how liberal these people are.

I know it’s just anecdotal, but I still visit Ohio at least 2 or 3 times a year and I still don’t see Obama winning Ohio.

MobileVideoEngineer on September 10, 2012 at 11:29 AM

While it’s tempting to attack pollsters when the polls start to go against you, I suspect they are giving us an indisputable trend at the moment. And its not only polls, on InTrade Romney is dangerously close to fall back into the 30s.

Romney is treading water, and if he stays on the current trajectory, he will lose in November.

I had some optimism after Ryan was named VP, and the week thereafter it seemed like Romney actually wanted to win. Now, that is all gone.

Sorry, but if Romney doesn’t change course quickly and becomes MUCH MORE agressive in his attacks against Obama, it’s Game Over.

Norwegian on September 10, 2012 at 11:29 AM

The dems win every poll, almost every election…whose the Ohio Governor?

Strickland also was the “front runner” he also was ahead in all of the polls…see a pattern here?

right2bright on September 10, 2012 at 11:27 AM

Indeed. If we turn out and vote we win. It really is that simple. If we all become Allahpundits then we’ll be too depressed to vote and Obama, along with the MSM, wins.

Weight of Glory on September 10, 2012 at 11:30 AM

Isn’t it amazing how the polls start looking your way once your Justice Department charges a polling company or two with criminal charges?

Socratease on September 10, 2012 at 11:30 AM

Why don’t you mention Questions 14 & 15, Ed?

conservative pilgrim on September 10, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Why would these merit discussion?

Q14 Who do you think gives better speeches:
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama 60%
Mitt Romney 31%
Not sure 9%
Q15 Who do you think deserves more credit for the
killing of Osama bin Laden: Barack Obama or
Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama 63%
Mitt Romney 6%
Not sure 31%

What a worthless question #15 is. Surely the 6% who said Romney stated so in jest, and the 31% who said “Not sure” stated that because they likely felt neither deserved much credit.

strictnein on September 10, 2012 at 11:30 AM

…the country is turning from dumb to dumber…and lies are acceptible as fact nowadays.

KOOLAID2 on September 10, 2012 at 11:26 AM

And the msm is so complicit in this, it is disgusting. If they would only do half their job, this election wouldn’t even be close.

Static21 on September 10, 2012 at 11:30 AM

I don’t believe the polls. Why?
1. Obama won on the back of very high turnout by blacks and college kids. He will get much less of both this time.
2. Obama won a significant number of independents. Romney is way ahead now with that group.
3. The economy is in very bad shape.
4. Gas prices are 100% higher than when he took office.
5. Unemployment is 8.2%.
6. 2010 – TEA Party sweep of Congress and state offices. The TEA party is fired up to get rid of Obama so the GOP has the lead in enthusiasm. Or fear because we’re mortally terrified of another four years of the Communist in Chief.
7. State level bills to stop Obamacare passed with huge margins. Example, in MO the anti-Obamacare bill passed with 67%. Would these people really vote to keep Obama in office?

I simply refuse to believe that the American people are so far gone as to reelect people determined to turn us into subjects.

IF Obama IS reelected I predict it will mark the beginning of the end of the US as a nation of 50 states and the beginning of an actual division into two separate countries. I don’t believe conservatives will simply give up and become part of the collective. Become hosts to the Democrat Party’s parasite voters. Nor do I believe that conservatives will want to spend eternity battling these true-believers. The best course will to be to divorce ourselves from them and let them turn their country into the totalitarian Hell they seem to want.

Charlemagne on September 10, 2012 at 11:30 AM

If Ohio goes to Obama, it is because everybody is on welfare. When we fled Ohio two years ago, everybody we knew had lost their jobs- everybody from CEO’s to burger flippers. Everybody was trying to sell their house and get away. The company my husband worked for was circling the drain. It is expensive to do business there. I could even see them going left because everybody on the right who could get out, already has. No offense to people who live in Ohio, but I feel sorry for you- I see Cleveland going the way of Detroit if something doesn’t change.

Kristamatic on September 10, 2012 at 11:31 AM

A lot of polling outfits are engaged in a form of push polling by oversampling democrats. I think it is deliberate, part of the attempt to create a narrative of inevitability for Obama and depress GOP turnout.
Hopefully it will backfire and dems will be complacent and stay home in even greater numbers.
I live in a swing state and for the first time I will do more than donate to a campaign. I’ll volunteer to help get out the vote in November. Not because I love Romney but because Obama has to go.

Curmudgeon on September 10, 2012 at 11:31 AM

I’d wait on hitting panic buttons here until seeing something with a better likely-voter model.

Bingo Capt Ed..I agree..:)

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 11:25 AM

Like we’ll ever see this happen…

GadsdenRattlers on September 10, 2012 at 11:31 AM

While it’s tempting to attack pollsters when the polls start to go against you, I suspect they are giving us an indisputable trend at the moment. And its not only polls, on InTrade Romney is dangerously close to fall back into the 30s.

Norwegian on September 10, 2012 at 11:29 AM

And InTrade nailed the Obamacare Supreme Court ruling, right?

strictnein on September 10, 2012 at 11:32 AM

Allahpundit will be so happy. He’s been an Obama cheerleader for weeks.

Happy Nomad on September 10, 2012 at 11:32 AM

Anyone who believes a poll that assumes a democrat turnout equal or higher than 2008 is an IDIOT… There is no way around it…

mnjg on September 10, 2012 at 11:32 AM

CNN/Time Poll Shows Strickland Ahead Of Kasich

But Kasich has something of an Achilles Heel — from 2001-2008 he was employed by Lehman Brothers, the investment firm whose collapse precipitated the financial system collapse of 2008. Strickland has hit Kasich hard on his ties to the bank, and may be able to use these ties to seal the congressman’s fate.

The race for governor of Ohio has narrowed to a 2-point gap as Democrats are showing more interest in the election that is now 10 days away, according to a poll commissioned by the Ohio Newspaper Organization.

More bad news for Kasich in PPP poll

Even while the most reputable polls had Kasich ahead by 6-8 points, he was “losing”…or about to lose, or “more bad news”….

right2bright on September 10, 2012 at 11:32 AM

Like, total duh.

Zaggs on September 10, 2012 at 11:33 AM

While it’s tempting to attack pollsters when the polls start to go against you, I suspect they are giving us an indisputable trend at the moment. And its not only polls, on InTrade Romney is dangerously close to fall back into the 30s.

Norwegian on September 10, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Intrade follows Polls… nothing more, nothing less… They do not have any additional information beside public polls… So please folks stop quoting intrade…

mnjg on September 10, 2012 at 11:33 AM

Q15 Who do you think deserves more credit for the
killing of Osama bin Laden: Barack Obama or
Mitt Romney?

What a ridiculous question.

I propose these questions in the interest of fairness:

Who do you think deserves more credit for saving the 2002 Winter Olympic Games: Barack Obama or Mitt Rommey?

Who do you think deserves more credit for saving or creating thousands of jobs at Staples, Dunkin Donuts, Baskin-Robbins, Burlington Coat Factory, and Sports Authority?

steebo77 on September 10, 2012 at 11:33 AM

If Ohio goes to Obama, it is because everybody is on welfare. When we fled Ohio two years ago, everybody we knew had lost their jobs- everybody from CEO’s to burger flippers. Everybody was trying to sell their house and get away. The company my husband worked for was circling the drain. It is expensive to do business there. I could even see them going left because everybody on the right who could get out, already has. No offense to people who live in Ohio, but I feel sorry for you- I see Cleveland going the way of Detroit if something doesn’t change.

Kristamatic on September 10, 2012 at 11:31 AM

We in Red states need to find a way to protect ourselves from Liberal Blue state refugees. They are an existential threat.

Charlemagne on September 10, 2012 at 11:34 AM

All of the Republican’s I know can hardly wait to vote…the dems, they are saying very little, they are embarrassed.

We will turn out record votes…the dems will turn out a dismal vote…but even if they match votes, Mitt will win.

right2bright on September 10, 2012 at 11:34 AM

Why don’t you mention Questions 14 & 15, Ed?

conservative pilgrim on September 10, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Why would these merit discussion?

Q14 Who do you think gives better speeches:
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama 60%
Mitt Romney 31%
Not sure 9%
Q15 Who do you think deserves more credit for the
killing of Osama bin Laden: Barack Obama or
Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama 63%
Mitt Romney 6%
Not sure 31%

What I take away from those questions is this: If you’re asking these questions as a polling company, you’re giving away your bias. To include those questions is to display your preference.

They deserved to be discussed in the context of ‘do we or don’t we take this one seriously?’

I don’t.

Washington Nearsider on September 10, 2012 at 11:34 AM

PPP’s Texas poll, coming out tomorrow, is rumored to show Obama up by 3.

steebo77 on September 10, 2012 at 11:34 AM

and any idea how many of the democrats polled were deceased humans and pets?

mittens on September 10, 2012 at 11:35 AM

The 41% for Democrats significantly exceeds that turnout, and also exceeds the 2008 election’s 39/31/30 exit polling that produced the five-point margin of Obama victory in the election.

In other words, they’re engaging in wishful thinking.

changer1701 on September 10, 2012 at 11:35 AM

So they greatly over sample democrats, and greatly under sample independents which Mitt is way ahead on against Obama, and all he can get is +5? See this is why it’s pointless to focus on polls. Right now they’re only used for narrative creation. Don’t play, just focus on Nov. and vote.

Weight of Glory on September 10, 2012 at 11:27 AM

Exactly. This is actually a very good poll for anyone who’s nervous about Romney’s chances. They put an anvil on the scale and the best they could get is Obama + 5?

Folks, there are only 2 ways the Dems hang onto the White House: 1) Romney or Ryan royally F up on the campaign trail or at the debates or 2) the GOP base doesn’t turn out. Since scenario #1 is unlikely and the “Kill Romney” stratgery was a waste of $200 million, that leaves only depressing Republican turnout. Let’s not allow a temporary convention bump and some manufactured polls to dispirit us. There’s less than 2 months to go. Hang in there.

Doughboy on September 10, 2012 at 11:35 AM

If Romney doesn’t have some leads after the first debate, then worry.

Zaggs on September 10, 2012 at 11:35 AM

Why would these merit discussion?

You’ve answered your own question, huh? Those two questions show the partisan bent and worthlessness of this poll. Really? Who deserves more credit for killing OBL–Obama or Romney? No Seal Team 6? Intelligence? Us military? Ridiculous.

conservative pilgrim on September 10, 2012 at 11:35 AM

Ohio looks deadlocked if one considers the modeling used, and even perhaps edging toward Romney when looking at the independents. I’d wait on hitting panic buttons here until seeing something with a better likely-voter model.

What? No eyeore from Allahpundit? Color me disappointed.

Rovin on September 10, 2012 at 11:35 AM

You could have stopped at PPP. PPP is a a complete and utter joke.

However, if PPP says Obama is up 5, at most he is up by 2. And when you factor Romney up with Independents, and that Romney will get more than 83% of the Republican vote, Romney is actually winning.

milcus on September 10, 2012 at 11:36 AM

record turnout by fluky biker women is guarantee

nathor on September 10, 2012 at 11:25 AM

Once again, a well thought out and elegantly expressed comment.

Night Owl on September 10, 2012 at 11:36 AM

I’d be a lot less inclined to hit the “panic button” if Mittens approached the campaign more as the “cold, calculating, heartless capitalist bastard” that the Left tells us he is and less like the “meek RINO bunny” that he seems to be channeling for the last week.

Bruno Strozek on September 10, 2012 at 11:36 AM

PPP’s Texas poll, coming out tomorrow, is rumored to show Obama up by 3.

steebo77 on September 10, 2012 at 11:34 AM

Seriously?

changer1701 on September 10, 2012 at 11:36 AM

And InTrade nailed the Obamacare Supreme Court ruling, right?

strictnein on September 10, 2012 at 11:32 AM

InTrade is much better at predicting election outcomes than court/jury decisions.

The first has a gazillion data points from which investors can predict the outcome, the second is a closed-off 9 person decision which the outcome is really a pure guess at best.

Sorry, but if Romney is not at par (50-50) after the first debate in October, I suspect the election is already over.

Norwegian on September 10, 2012 at 11:36 AM

I’ve heard from credible sources that PPP’s Wyoming and Idaho polls, coming out Wednesday, will both show Romney up by only narrow single digits.

steebo77 on September 10, 2012 at 11:36 AM

If 7% of Obama 2008 “White Voters” in Ohio switch and vote for Romney combined with 3% of Obama 2008 voters in Ohio stay home in 2008 then Romney would win Ohio… The math cannot be disputed…

mnjg on September 10, 2012 at 11:36 AM

Oh goody another poll! Where’s gumbyandpokey. You know the one who told us every time a poll came out with Romney ahead that polls mean nothing. Somehow that’s no longer the case for that one…

sandee on September 10, 2012 at 11:36 AM

I’ve yet to figure out whether the Dem’s are helping or hurting themselves by putting out polls purposely skewed to Obama. Helps his image, but only gives a false sense of hope.

Tater Salad on September 10, 2012 at 11:36 AM

The polling firms are attempting to influence the outcome, not report the facts.

Charlemagne on September 10, 2012 at 11:37 AM

steebo77 on September 10, 2012 at 11:36 AM

Are you pulling our legs?

Weight of Glory on September 10, 2012 at 11:37 AM

PPP’s next West Virginia, Kentucky, and Arkansas polls are expected to show the race in those states at a virtual tie.

steebo77 on September 10, 2012 at 11:37 AM

Damn I hate watching polls. The five point lead Rasmussen and Gallup is showing just makes me sick.

GadsdenRattlers on September 10, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Just wait a few days, and the headlines will be Obama bounce fading.

Jon0815 on September 10, 2012 at 11:37 AM

steebo77 on September 10, 2012 at 11:34 AM

That would not surprise me one bit! If they call me, I will say I will vote bho and lie to them!
L

letget on September 10, 2012 at 11:38 AM

I’ve heard from credible sources that PPP’s Wyoming and Idaho polls, coming out Wednesday, will both show Romney up by only narrow single digits.

steebo77 on September 10, 2012 at 11:36 AM

Yeah and Utah is no longer a red State!

sandee on September 10, 2012 at 11:38 AM

275% of dimbocrap voters will show up.

VegasRick on September 10, 2012 at 11:38 AM

Charlemagne on September 10, 2012 at 11:34 AM

I hear ya, but maybe the better option is to make our red states so strong and inhospitable to the left that we don’t fear their refugees. I live in Utah now, and lefties hate it here!

Kristamatic on September 10, 2012 at 11:39 AM

If Ohio goes to Obama, it is because everybody is on welfare. When we fled Ohio two years ago, everybody we knew had lost their jobs- everybody from CEO’s to burger flippers. Everybody was trying to sell their house and get away. The company my husband worked for was circling the drain. It is expensive to do business there. I could even see them going left because everybody on the right who could get out, already has. No offense to people who live in Ohio, but I feel sorry for you- I see Cleveland going the way of Detroit if something doesn’t change.

Kristamatic on September 10, 2012 at 11:31 AM

Were you from the Cleveland area? If so, I wouldn’t be too concerned about that. Northeast Ohio has been going down hill for 30 years. They’ve tried to get some life back with some of the tech jobs, but it’s not been enough. What I was seeing from the area I was from (Central Ohio) was that most of the liberals were moving out to “follow their dreams” and go to places like DC and SF.

Like I said earlier, I was one of the few conservatives that left Ohio because every job I applied for wanted either 5+ years of experience or wanted to pay $15,000 less a year than what I could get in Missouri. Of course this was in 2009 when Strickland was still governor. Things seem to be loosening up a bit in my field in Ohio and I have more experience now, so I may venture back to Ohio eventually.

MobileVideoEngineer on September 10, 2012 at 11:39 AM

PPP’s Texas poll, coming out tomorrow, is rumored to show Obama up by 3.

steebo77 on September 10, 2012 at 11:34 AM

Are you kidding? I hope you’re serious. Nothing would make PPP a bigger laughingstock than to claim Obama is up 3 in Texas considering he’ll lose this state by 20 points.

Doughboy on September 10, 2012 at 11:40 AM

Kristamatic on September 10, 2012 at 11:39 AM

Will Mia Love win then?

Charlemagne on September 10, 2012 at 11:40 AM

A friend at Pew tells me that they will release a national poll this afternoon with Obama 54, Romney 40.

steebo77 on September 10, 2012 at 11:40 AM

If 7% of Obama 2008 “White Voters” in Ohio switch and vote for Romney combined with 3% of Obama 2008 voters in Ohio stay home in 2012 then Romney would win Ohio… The math cannot be disputed…

mnjg on September 10, 2012 at 11:40 AM

Peter “DaTechGuy” Ingemi has a detailed analysis at his blog specifically looking at Public Policy Polling’s recent Ohio poll. Basically, although PPP shows Obama up by 5, the numbers seem, well, less than reliable when you look at the underlying figures.

And fwiw to you nervous nellies:

Romney pollster: “Don’t get too worked up about the latest polling”

Flora Duh on September 10, 2012 at 11:41 AM

SWalker on September 10, 2012 at 11:34 AM

Hey, I saw the Feinstein thread and thought of you – interested in your thoughts. Does Emkin have a chance?

22044 on September 10, 2012 at 11:41 AM

A friend at Pew tells me that they will release a national poll this afternoon with Obama 54, Romney 40.

steebo77 on September 10, 2012 at 11:40 AM

Ok, stop this unless you’re being serious.

Doughboy on September 10, 2012 at 11:41 AM

oldroy on September 10, 2012 at 11:29 AM

lolz..Good point..:)

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 11:42 AM

A friend at Pew tells me that they will release a national poll this afternoon with Obama 54, Romney 40.

steebo77 on September 10, 2012 at 11:40 AM

And everyone except the lunatics would be laughing at them… They did oversample democrats by 19 points last time they came up with their stupid poll showing Obama 13 points ahead… These fools have no shame…

mnjg on September 10, 2012 at 11:42 AM

This is all part of “Operation Demoralize” — the Democrats’ attempt to depress Republican voting by convincing the public that Obama has an insurmountable lead.

Don’t fall for it.

AZCoyote on September 10, 2012 at 11:43 AM

…the country is turning from dumb to dumber…and lies are acceptible as fact nowadays.

KOOLAID2 on September 10, 2012 at 11:26 AM

We are living in an age of great confusion about the issue of truth. In recent weeks, Ralph Keyes has authored a book entitled The Post Truth Era, in which he suggests that society has now moved beyond a concern for truth. Truth has become such a contested category, he writes, that most persons go through life actually expecting to be lied to, to be the recipients of dishonesty, and to be confronted with endless misrepresentations by advertisers, cultural leaders, and now even biographers. In a world of media invention and virtual reality, truth has become a distant category to many persons, especially in the academic elite. Sociologist Jay A. Barnes, in his recent work on lying, suggests that people have grown so accustomed to untruth that many postmodernists now claim that lies are actually “meaningful data in
their own right.”

http://www.etsjets.org/files/JETS-PDFs/48/48-1/48-1-pp063-075_JETS.pdf

davidk on September 10, 2012 at 11:43 AM

Why would these merit discussion?

Q14 Who do you think gives better speeches:
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama 60%
Mitt Romney 31%
Not sure 9%
Q15 Who do you think deserves more credit for the
killing of Osama bin Laden: Barack Obama or
Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama 63%
Mitt Romney 6%
Not sure 31%

What a worthless question #15 is. Surely the 6% who said Romney stated so in jest, and the 31% who said “Not sure” stated that because they likely felt neither deserved much credit.

strictnein on September 10, 2012 at 11:30 AM

Exactly why they merit discussion from Ed, or at least in these comments. #15 is a clear leader question, meant for nothing than to skew the poll. Obviously Romney had nothing to do with the decision as such is rarely left to private citizens. Notice that there is no question asking if the credit should go to Obama or our Navy SEALS.

As I said in the headline thread last night. I’d be among that 6% saying Romney just to poke at the PeePee idiots. In the end Romney had almost as much to do with it as Zero.

Gingotts on September 10, 2012 at 11:43 AM

Again, keep in mind this was a weekend poll to boot. Weekend polls create a slightly more d-leaning sample of independents, slightly more d leaning sample of seniors, etc etc and so on and so on.

So, this poll was taken right after a convention, on a weekend, AND assumed greater than 2008 levels of democratic turnout, and could still only produce a very modest lead.

Yeah, sorry, not worried.

WolvenOne on September 10, 2012 at 11:43 AM

Once again,Hot Gas pimping Kos’ push-polling operation, PPP.
I have been contacted twice by this outfit.
It was utterly laughable.
The questions posed only had response options that fit various degrees of Dem-left positions.

Dr. Carlo Lombardi on September 10, 2012 at 11:43 AM

I live in Ohio and am pretty well aware of trends. Obama will not get anywhere near what he got in 08. Heck, the coal miners union just announced that they would not endorse him this time around. he will lose union votes. Add that to the jewish and Catholic vote he is likely to lose and I just don’t seen how he can win Ohio.

Ta111 on September 10, 2012 at 11:43 AM

So, is it safe to assume that the parasitic, Marxist slugs in this country have become the voting majority and the rest of us must either yield to their desires or get the hell out?

rplat on September 10, 2012 at 11:43 AM

Norwegian on September 10, 2012 at 11:36 AM

Your “concern” is noted!..:)

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 11:44 AM

MobileVideoEngineer on September 10, 2012 at 11:39 AM

We lived in Aurora, where Sea World used to be. So we were a bit more South of NE Ohio- but seriously our whole area was becoming severely depressed, and if you know the area I’m talking about, it is a “nice” place, supposedly upscale. In the last 4 years, all the jobs just left.

Kristamatic on September 10, 2012 at 11:45 AM

Oh, and another thing from the Headline thread. Everybody should be going here: It’s “PPP” on Twitter. Seems legit.

Gingotts on September 10, 2012 at 11:45 AM

A friend at Pew tells me that they will release a national poll this afternoon with Obama 54, Romney 40.

steebo77 on September 10, 2012 at 11:40 AM

That’s no joke…

I can see Pew doing this.

sentinelrules on September 10, 2012 at 11:45 AM

all about suppressing voter turnout for R’s ….. lsm and their polling allies in full swing.

maineconservative on September 10, 2012 at 11:45 AM

Sorry, Ed and other GOP right wingers … Kasich and the GOP lost this election when they tried to pass the law that would have hurt the public sector unions …even a lot of repubs went against the GOP on that …

U2denver on September 10, 2012 at 11:46 AM

And fwiw to you nervous nellies:

Romney pollster: “Don’t get too worked up about the latest polling”

Flora Duh on September 10, 2012 at 11:41 AM

I’m not worked up. But at the same time, I don’t like the recent demeanor of the Romney campaign. After the Ryan pick, it was attack, attack, attack. They even welcomed a debate on Medicare. Lately they’ve reverted to the Romney stratgery during the early summer where he went out of his way to be complimentary of Obama as a person before making any criticism. All this while Obama’s campaign was trashing Romney with TV ads and surrogates, even going so far as to accuse him of murder.

If they get back on message and start to get far more pointed with their attacks, the numbers will rebound and the election will remain theirs to lose. But personally I really hate this new(old) playing nice routine. It’s far too reminiscent of every Republican Presidential campaign in recent memory that led to a defeat, and usually a bad one.

Doughboy on September 10, 2012 at 11:46 AM

Charlemagne on September 10, 2012 at 11:40 AM
I sure hope so. Mia Love is fabulous.

Kristamatic on September 10, 2012 at 11:46 AM

I’m still in the 9th District (Marcy Kaptur’s territory) and I’m not seeing the love for Dear Liar this time around. No yard signs for him, my next door neighbors have a yard sign stuck in their door, almost as if they are ashamed of supporting him. No one else has any sign out for anyone. And given the bruising campaign and hard feelings between Kaptur & Kucinich, I suspect there is going to be a depressed Democratic turnout.

rbj on September 10, 2012 at 11:47 AM

PS: Notice how already we’re seeing more pollsters willing to put out polls after the Democratic Convention than after the Republican Convention.

After the RNC we pretty much only saw Gallop and Rassmussen, Rassmussen showed a significant bump, Gallop didn’t. I think if other pollsters had bothered to release polling data they would’ve confirmed a big bump, which would’ve ran counter to the narrative.

Not that it really matters, as I’ve been saying for days, bumps fade.

WolvenOne on September 10, 2012 at 11:47 AM

In all seriousness, if it weren’t for skewed samples and biased questions, the race would still be virtually tied, or Romney would have a very slight lead.

Interestingly enough, New Mexico polling had shown Obama with about a 13-point lead. A new poll from the Albuquerque Journal, taking during the DNC, puts it at Obama 45, Romney 40.

That’s actually a pretty hopeful sign.

steebo77 on September 10, 2012 at 11:48 AM

the fix is in (the methods)….

ted c on September 10, 2012 at 11:49 AM

I live in Ohio and am pretty well aware of trends. Obama will not get anywhere near what he got in 08. Heck, the coal miners union just announced that they would not endorse him this time around. he will lose union votes. Add that to the jewish and Catholic vote he is likely to lose and I just don’t seen how he can win Ohio.

Ta111 on September 10, 2012 at 11:43 AM

The last Ohio kerfluffle there were some people that mentioned that the auto industry was a big employer in Ohio and while this is true, they left out a big glaring fact. A lot and I mean a LOT of the auto industry jobs support Honda in my hometown of Marysville and nearby East Liberty and Honda has rejected the unions since MAP (Marysville Auto Plant) opened in 1982. There is a GM plant in Lordstown that makes the Chevy Cruze, but the Delphi plant in Moraine is closed and the Dayton area unemployment rate isn’t getting better.

MobileVideoEngineer on September 10, 2012 at 11:50 AM

P.S.:

A PPP Poll on this election outcome is just as predictable as our dear Mr. Morrissey’s claim that there was no way the 49ers could win in Lambeau……. :)

Rovin on September 10, 2012 at 11:50 AM

It is a mistake to fixate on polls, especially these days. It is especially troubling to see a campaign fixate on them, if only to dismiss their importance. It’s a waste of time and resources. Now is the time for attack, not reassurances.

I pay attention to the pro-active or passive postures of the candidates and campaigns.

Romney has slipped into a passive state. There are echos of McCain going on, that is, the selection of a dynamic young conservative VP followed by a kind of complacence, as if that were enough and the quota of ballsiness has been exhausted.

Romney should be on cheerful relentless attack every day. He has no excuse as to the available wealth of material on which to base attacks. He should also be challenging the media every day. He should have teams of surrogates circling and harassing the media and calling them out on their skew and derelictions and forcing them to defend themselves. He needs some high-level surrogates, like Gingrich and Giuliani, dedicated to calling out the media. This campaign should recognize the media as its mortal enemy and should be taking them on relentlessly.

Niall Ferguson has a good eassy out today suggesting the “it’s the economy, stupid” premise of Romney’s campaign is a miscalculation. There is much more going on in this country, far more dimension to Obama’s assault on America, than economic mismanagement. Romney isn’t showing that he gets this.

His comments about Obamacare were dispiriting to conservatives. If he thinks he’s earning points with the media by saying this, or assuring moderates in a greater proportion than he is depressing grassroots, he may be making a big mistake.

rrpjr on September 10, 2012 at 11:51 AM

They are using these polls to try and swing swing voters, demoralize the GOP base and possibly spur votes to a protest candidate and away from Romney.

PPP admitted on Twitter in late Dec. that the only reason Santorum shot to first place in Iowa was due to 1 bad poll sample released in mid-Dec that suddenly had lots of Santorum support. Givign people cover to flock to him

jp on September 10, 2012 at 11:51 AM

Heck, the coal miners union just announced that they would not endorse him this time around. he will lose union votes.
Ta111 on September 10, 2012 at 11:43 AM

That’s a big deal. Do you have a link?

conservative pilgrim on September 10, 2012 at 11:52 AM

I live in Ohio and am pretty well aware of trends. Obama will not get anywhere near what he got in 08. Heck, the coal miners union just announced that they would not endorse him this time around. he will lose union votes. Add that to the jewish and Catholic vote he is likely to lose and I just don’t seen how he can win Ohio.

Ta111 on September 10, 2012 at 11:43 AM

I have a made an elections prediction model and based on it I can say that if 7% of Obama 2008 “White Voters” in Ohio switch and vote for Romney combined with 3% of his 2008 voters in Ohio stay home in 2012 then Romney is going to win Ohio…

Are you observing that 7% of Obama “White Voters” in Ohio switching for Romney? Are you observing that 3% of Obama voters from 2008 woudl stay home in 2012?

mnjg on September 10, 2012 at 11:52 AM

Ta111 on September 10, 2012 at 11:43 AM

I hope you are right.

Kristamatic on September 10, 2012 at 11:52 AM

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