Obama edges Romney in August fundraising

posted at 8:41 am on September 10, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Barack Obama’s fundraising bounced back in a big way last month.  After three straight months of getting bested by the Mitt Romney/RNC fundraising juggernaut, Team Obama and the DNC managed to score a narrow victory in August.  Moments after Team Romney announced that they had raised $111.6 million — their best month yet — Team Obama announced they had raised $114 million:

President Barack Obama and Democrats raised more than $114 million for his campaign in August, a campaign official says.

The total far exceeds Obama’s earlier monthly fundraising totals. He trailed Mitt Romney and Republicans in fundraising in July for the third straight month.

As Politico’s James Hohmann points out in his Morning Score e-mail, that still leaves out a key indicator, emphasis mine:

President Obama raised $114 million last month, and Mitt Romney took in $111.6 million. Romney’s campaign, including the RNC and state parties it raises money through, have about $168.5 million cash on hand. The Obama camp has not announced how much they have. Boston announced their numbers at midnight, and Chicago responded with theirs at 12:22. Chicago is highlighting that they had 1.1 million donors last month, including 317 thousand new ones. The Romney camp is highlighting that 94 percent (or 822,223) of their donations were for $250 or less, accounting for $34.6 million of his haul. Chicago says 98 percent of Obama’s donations were for $250 or less, and that the average gift was $58.

During the summer, the burn rate for Team Obama has exceeded 100%; they have spent more money than they have raised.  Romney, on the other hand, has continually added to his cash on hand.  For the first time this year, that was also true of Team Romney in August, as they spent $17 million more than they raised. The fundraising for Team Obama got very aggressive in August, filled with wheedling, cajoling, and dire predictions of catastrophe.  To some extent, that seems to have worked despite getting some bad press over it.

Even so, at least at the moment it appears that Romney will continue to enjoy a cash-on-hand lead at the official start of the general-election fight, even if Obama managed to achieve parity for a month on the top-line figure.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2

During the summer, the burn rate for Team Obama has exceeded 100%; they have spent more money than they have raised.

How shocking…

Electrongod on September 10, 2012 at 8:43 AM

Is it too much to hope that they don’t whine about money now.

Yeah I know – dream on.

gophergirl on September 10, 2012 at 8:43 AM

Won’t help or hinder. Romney’s going to win because he campaigns properly, or lose because he doesn’t.

listens2glenn on September 10, 2012 at 8:45 AM

When will the brain dead media learn that you never draw definitive conclusions from a point estimate.

rplat on September 10, 2012 at 8:46 AM

Oh this is just terrific. Another reason to hear Obama whine about big money in elections.

DaveDief on September 10, 2012 at 8:47 AM

…are the checks coming in from offshore now?
…Donald Duck, Mickey Mouse, Standard Bearer, Parnel Solyndra, M.L. Global…etc.?

KOOLAID2 on September 10, 2012 at 8:47 AM

Folks, the math and the reality on the ground are very much against Obama… Romney is going to take at least 10% of Obama 2008 “White Voters” and at least 3% of Obama 2008 voters are going to stay home. This will ensure Romney victory…

mnjg on September 10, 2012 at 8:49 AM

The likely voters are speaking in poll after poll after poll. They love them some EMPTY CHAIR.

Gird your loins and prepare your families.

The America we know and love could commit suicide on November 6th.

PappyD61 on September 10, 2012 at 8:53 AM

During the summer, the burn rate for Team Obama has exceeded 100%; they have spent more money than they have raised.

It’s tough to stay in the black when you’re having to spend in all 57 states.

Wait…….was I just racist???!!

BacaDog on September 10, 2012 at 8:53 AM

oh no everyone panic!!11

wargamer6 on September 10, 2012 at 8:53 AM

Now is the time for Mitt to pour it on.

kingsjester on September 10, 2012 at 8:53 AM

Romney needs a 2:1 cash lead to have parity with Obama and the Media.

albill on September 10, 2012 at 8:54 AM

Folks, the math and the reality on the ground are very much against Obama… Romney is going to take at least 10% of Obama 2008 “White Voters” and at least 3% of Obama 2008 voters are going to stay home. This will ensure Romney victory…

mnjg on September 10, 2012 at 8:49 AM

Oh you poor thing. You keep beating this horse. The problem, of course is that your model doesn’t take into account for the fact that the white share of the electorate has declined in Presidential elections every years since 1980 with the exception of 1996. So if that trends continues Obama can lose some white voters and still win the election. Also the only polling agency that you have saying Obama will lose 10% of white voters is Rasmussen.

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 8:54 AM

So was this just a great job by team Obama or a weak fundraising month for Romney?

gumbyandpokey on September 10, 2012 at 8:55 AM

And the bad news keep coming…

Norwegian on September 10, 2012 at 8:56 AM

It is likely an “one off” deal, put together with some doing, designed to paint a post-convention momentum as part of the psych op. Let’s see how well they do for September. If Barry/DNC are doing so well with their fund raising, they would not have to ask for a loan from Duke Energy to cover their 15 million dollars shortfall from the convention.

bayview on September 10, 2012 at 8:57 AM

Oh, by the way…..just another story the American people will never hear from their news sources (AP/Reuters/Yahoo News/ABC/CBS/NBC/NPR).

http://www.dickmorris.com/obama-thugs-rough-up-gallup-for-polls-they-dont-like/?utm_source=dmreports&utm_medium=dmreports&utm_campaign=dmreports

The Obama Administration’s Justice Department announced, on August 22nd, that it was joining a lawsuit by a former Gallup employee and whistleblower against the Gallup Corporation for allegedly overcharging the government on polling work.

The announcement comes on the heels of a confrontation between Gallup staffers and Obama strategist David Axelrod in which he accused the company of using out of date sampling methods which, he said, generated polling data negative to the president.

The whistleblower’s lawsuit has been kicking around since 2009, but the Justice Department joined the suit only after the run-in between Axelrod and Gallup in April of this year.

In a scene right out of a typical authoritarian regime, Fox News reports that “employees at the venerable Gallup polling firm suggested they felt threatened by Obama campaign adviser David Axelrod when he questioned the methodology of a mid-April poll showing Mitt Romney leading the president – according to internal emails published Thursday.”

That poll that sent Axelrod ballistic showed Romney leading Obama 48-43 percent.

The Daily Caller published e mails that started when Axelrod sent a tweet to Gallup saying the tracking poll was “saddled with some methodological problems” and directing followers to a National Journal story in which a professor suggested outdated sampling.

According to the email chain titled “Axelrod vs. Gallup,” the White House in addition asked that a Gallup staffer “come over and explain our methodology,” which was apparently perceived as a subtle threat.

Fox News reported that “a Gallup official said in an email he thought Axelrod’s pressure ‘sounds a little like a Godfather situation.’”

Gallup refused to change its methodology to suit the White House.

And the Justice Department intervention in the whistleblower suit came three months later. The whistleblower, Michael Lindley, claims that Gallup violated the False Claims Act by overcharging the federal government for its services to the U.S. Mint, the State Department and other federal agencies. The Justice Department plans to add Gallup’s work with FEMA to the list of alleged overcharges covered in the lawsuit.

Lindley charged that Gallup overestimated the number of hours of field work that the government surveys would require and that it billed the feds based on the inflated estimates.

According to the Washington Times, Lindley worked for the Obama campaign in 2008 as an Iowa field organizer based out of Council Bluffs, Iowa.

As the election progresses, this blatant effort to influence Gallup’s data and its poll numbers is an example of Chicago political thugs at their worst.

PappyD61 on September 10, 2012 at 8:57 AM

Houston, we have a problem, and it is this:

MESSAGE BEATS MONEY.

Obamas message is stupid and a lie, but we know what it is. It is “Nobody could have done better with the mess I had. Give me more time to fix it.” Hell, our side is helping him by constantly saying what a mess he inherited!

What is Romney/Ryan’s messgae? I support him, but still don’t know.

JustTruth101 on September 10, 2012 at 8:57 AM

Oh you poor thing. You keep beating this horse. The problem, of course is that your model doesn’t take into account for the fact that the white share of the electorate has declined in Presidential elections every years since 1980 with the exception of 1996. So if that trends continues Obama can lose some white voters and still win the election. Also the only polling agency that you have saying Obama will lose 10% of white voters is Rasmussen.

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 8:54 AM

I am assumimg the same White Voters share of the electorate as in 2008 both on national and state level. The same goes for Blacks and Hispanics. If you think that the White Voters share in the electorate would be less than 2008 then you are delusional…

mnjg on September 10, 2012 at 8:59 AM

Folks, the math and the reality on the ground are very much against Obama… Romney is going to take at least 10% of Obama 2008 “White Voters” and at least 3% of Obama 2008 voters are going to stay home. This will ensure Romney victory…

mnjg on September 10, 2012 at 8:49 AM

I hope so but news article after news article all I hear Obama’s ground game in swing states to get the vote out is much stronger than Romney’s. Karl Rove has mentioned it was the GOTV that had Bush barely beat Kerry. Hailey Barbour has even mentioned how worried he is about it.

Mangofish26 on September 10, 2012 at 9:00 AM

What is Romney/Ryan’s messgae? I support him, but still don’t know.

JustTruth101 on September 10, 2012 at 8:57 AM

its something about replacing obamcare by romneycare:
http://www.mediaite.com/tv/mitt-romney-number-of-things-i-like-in-obamacare-that-im-going-to-put-in-place/

nathor on September 10, 2012 at 9:01 AM

Folks, the math and the reality on the ground are very much against Obama… Romney is going to take at least 10% of Obama 2008 “White Voters” and at least 3% of Obama 2008 voters are going to stay home. This will ensure Romney victory…

mnjg on September 10, 2012 at 8:49 AM

I sure hope you are correct. Reading the polling numbers over the weekend has been depressing, to say the least. How can any intelligent person vote for that stupid fraud, whose every word is a distortion of truth, if not just a plain, outright lie??????? Beats me….

chai on September 10, 2012 at 9:01 AM

Four words : burn rate.

Weight of Glory on September 10, 2012 at 9:01 AM

I am assumimg the same White Voters share of the electorate as in 2008 both on national and state level. The same goes for Blacks and Hispanics. If you think that the White Voters share in the electorate would be less than 2008 then you are delusional…

mnjg on September 10, 2012 at 8:59 AM

PS: The White Voters share of the electorate in 2010 was higher than 2008 but to be conservative I am only assuming that the White Voters share of the electorate in 2012 is the same as in 2008.

mnjg on September 10, 2012 at 9:02 AM

Romney can afford to start spending more money than he is taking in. His campaign has managed their stores in a way that allows them to now begin to start burning money. There are two months left before the election. That means it is full throttle, go all out, b@lls to the wall time. Romney needs to start flooding airwaves for the next 8 weeks with ad after ad after ad hammering obama on his failures and he has plenty of money to do it.

JAGonzo on September 10, 2012 at 9:03 AM

And the bad news keep coming…

Norwegian on September 10, 2012 at 8:56 AM

And cynic-chics like yourself savor it. This would be bad if Romney hadn’t beaten him for intake the past few months or if Obama hadn’t burned through the cash he already had. Chill, baby, or are you looking for bad news?

thebrokenrattle on September 10, 2012 at 9:03 AM

oh no everyone panic!!11

wargamer6 on September 10, 2012 at 8:53 AM

We’re watching the rollout of McCain 2.0 with this Romney campaign. And what a shocker weren’t a lot of the McCain people really loyalists to the Romney campaign?

Mitt has already said it’s not his style to attack “personally” and to stick with the issues. What does anyone think that means?

We’ve seen this over and over and over again from the gop. Nominate a weak RINO and watch the Dem win.

Carter/Ford
Clinton/Bush
Clinton/Dole
Obama/McCain
??????

And the only time the gop nominee ever has a shot is if they really have some shred of Conservative in them (Bush 88 running as Reagans’ third term, Bush 43 running as a younger Reagan, without the Dads’ big gov leanings).

We know how this movie ends, the lead actor just changes in each sequel.

PappyD61 on September 10, 2012 at 9:03 AM

I am assumimg the same White Voters share of the electorate as in 2008 both on national and state level. The same goes for Blacks and Hispanics. If you think that the White Voters share in the electorate would be less than 2008 then you are delusional…

mnjg on September 10, 2012 at 8:59 AM

But isn’t the 2012 election taking the 2010 US Census into consideration where the 2008 ovbiously didn’t? The white voters have gone down. I hope Obama loses but I am also not going to think this is going to be an easy election either for Romney to win.

Mangofish26 on September 10, 2012 at 9:04 AM

…are the checks coming in from offshore now?
…Donald Duck, Mickey Mouse, Standard Bearer, Parnel Solyndra, M.L. Global…etc.?

KOOLAID2 on September 10, 2012 at 8:47 AM

Yeah, that was my first thought too.

Money aside, I’m starting to worry that, as Trump said on F&F this morning, Romney needs to toughen up on Øbama. I’m gonna be watching real close this week, and if it looks like a repeat of McCain’s Mr. Nice Guy campaign, I’m going to be very upset.

If Romney is holding back because he’s afraid that Øbama will call him a racist, then a pox on them all.

petefrt on September 10, 2012 at 9:04 AM

Romney can afford to start spending more money than he is taking in. His campaign has managed their stores in a way that allows them to now begin to start burning money. There are two months left before the election. That means it is full throttle, go all out, b@lls to the wall time. Romney needs to start flooding airwaves for the next 8 weeks with ad after ad after ad hammering obama on his failures and he has plenty of money to do it.

JAGonzo on September 10, 2012 at 9:03 AM

Ah yes the line that ROMNEY was just waiting to UNLOAD after he was the official nominee of the gop. Yep, I’m overwhelmed with the media offensive that he’s launched. Really powerful.

Hey, Romney campaign……….YOU’RE LOSING TO AN EMPTY CHAIR!!!

PappyD61 on September 10, 2012 at 9:05 AM

There really needs to be a thread on the CTU strike.

Breaking news Picket lines up after CPS, teachers fail to prevent strike

This has to be one of the stupidest things I’ve ever read

The 25,000 union members were told to report to their schools at 6:30 a.m. Monday to begin picketing. Several interviewed Sunday appeared more than ready.

Oh, we’re going to go to the schools anyway, but instead of doing our jobs and getting paid we are going stand around and scream unfair and not get paid for it.

MobileVideoEngineer on September 10, 2012 at 9:05 AM

Four words : burn rate.

Weight of Glory on September 10, 2012 at 9:01 AM

That should be three words.

bayview on September 10, 2012 at 9:06 AM

I hope so but news article after news article all I hear Obama’s ground game in swing states to get the vote out is much stronger than Romney’s. Karl Rove has mentioned it was the GOTV that had Bush barely beat Kerry. Hailey Barbour has even mentioned how worried he is about it.

Mangofish26 on September 10, 2012 at 9:00 AM

News articles are exxagerating this a lot… Romney is building a very strong GOTV organizations all over the battleground states. Also it take less ground game effort to get a Republican voter to the poll than a democrat voter… It takes much more effort to bring a welfare queen to vote…

mnjg on September 10, 2012 at 9:06 AM

PappyD61 on September 10, 2012 at 9:03 AM

Oh man, you’re right! An ABR like you wouldn’t lie!

wargamer6 on September 10, 2012 at 9:07 AM

bayview on September 10, 2012 at 9:06 AM

Not adjusted for inflation.

Weight of Glory on September 10, 2012 at 9:07 AM

Oh you poor thing. You keep beating this horse. The problem, of course is that your model doesn’t take into account for the fact that the white share of the electorate has declined in Presidential elections every years since 1980 with the exception of 1996. So if that trends continues Obama can lose some white voters and still win the election. Also the only polling agency that you have saying Obama will lose 10% of white voters is Rasmussen.

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 8:54 AM

Bless your heart, you don’t know that any decline in the white vote between 2008 and 2012 would consist mostly of illegal immigrants, most of whom will not vote?

Sekhmet on September 10, 2012 at 9:08 AM

I am assumimg the same White Voters share of the electorate as in 2008 both on national and state level. The same goes for Blacks and Hispanics. If you think that the White Voters share in the electorate would be less than 2008 then you are delusional…

mnjg on September 10, 2012 at 8:59 AM

No dude. I’m following an electoral demographic trendline that has continued unabated every. single. Presidential. election (outside of 1996) since 1980. Your comparison to 2010 is irrelevant, that was a midterm election. The trendline measures Presidential elections.

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 9:09 AM

Bless your heart, you don’t know that any decline in the white vote between 2008 and 2012 would consist mostly of illegal immigrants, most of whom will not vote?

Sekhmet on September 10, 2012 at 9:08 AM

Re-read that sentence and then try again.

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 9:10 AM

But isn’t the 2012 election taking the 2010 US Census into consideration where the 2008 ovbiously didn’t? The white voters have gone down. I hope Obama loses but I am also not going to think this is going to be an easy election either for Romney to win.

Mangofish26 on September 10, 2012 at 9:04 AM

As I said before in 2010 elections the White Voters share of the elections was higher than in 2008. In 2012 the White Voters share would at least equal to 2008. The Hispanics grew more than any other group in the last 10 years but their share of particpation in elections have been always lower than their share in the general populations and this will remain the case in 2012…

mnjg on September 10, 2012 at 9:11 AM

Romney is building a very strong GOTV organizations all over the battleground states. Also it take less ground game effort to get a Republican voter to the poll than a democrat voter… It takes much more effort to bring a welfare queen to vote…

mnjg on September 10, 2012 at 9:06 AM

Nope, this isn’t about race at all…….

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 9:12 AM

To some extent, that seems to have worked despite getting some bad press over it

Yea, it was brutal. Really?

msupertas on September 10, 2012 at 9:12 AM

Not too worried. As a typical liberal, deficit spending has been the norm. You can already see the differences between what would be the two presidencies: Obama has been deficit spending for months, Romney has been saving money and being frugal with what he has.

Off topic: I had a dream last night that Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer died.

onetrickpony on September 10, 2012 at 9:12 AM

Mitt has plenty of my money. No matter how he turns out as POTUS, every penny will have been worth it to get the Dog Eater out of office.

Bishop on September 10, 2012 at 9:14 AM

Nope, this isn’t about race at all…….

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 9:12 AM

Wasn’t, until your boy started slicing and dicing the electorate. Can you at least go back and get your GED before you start posting on here.

msupertas on September 10, 2012 at 9:14 AM

As I said before in 2010 elections the White Voters share of the elections was higher than in 2008

The fact that you are blithely comparing the 2010 midterms with a Presidential election shows that your attempt to appear as some kind of neutral statistician is a total act.

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 9:14 AM

Add up the number of folks hooked on fed govt handouts, those in unions, people of color who think Whites all hate them, those employed by bureaucracies, those working for or studying in college/university, & those foolish enough to be on the Left in social issues, & you have a majority.

itsnotaboutme on September 10, 2012 at 9:15 AM

Obamas message is stupid and a lie, but we know what it is. It is “Nobody could have done better with the mess I had. Give me more time to fix it.” Hell, our side is helping him by constantly saying what a mess he inherited!

What is Romney/Ryan’s messgae? I support him, but still don’t know.

JustTruth101 on September 10, 2012 at 8:57 AM

Yes, but they follow that up by saying he’s made it worse. Unemployment is higher, there’s more debt, etc. And the Romney/Ryan message is that Obama has had his chance to fix it…he didn’t, and Romney can.

I think people need to step back and take a deep breath. We’ve got about two months till election day…Obama is a popular incumbent who has the media running interference for him at every turn. It was NEVER going to be a cakewalk.

changer1701 on September 10, 2012 at 9:16 AM

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 9:14 AM

is a total act.

Just like how you’re a “professor”!

wargamer6 on September 10, 2012 at 9:16 AM

Not adjusted for inflation.

Weight of Glory on September 10, 2012 at 9:07 AM

But Bernanke told you there is no inflation.

bayview on September 10, 2012 at 9:17 AM

Re-read that sentence and then try again.

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 9:10 AM

Nobody wants to actually question how much of the Hispanic influx consists of illegal aliens. Therefore, a lot of illegals are counted as Hispanic potential voters when they are anything but. The supposed increased share of minorities comes from counting brown faces without making the distinction between legal residents, naturalized citizens, and illegal aliens—they simply assume all of these new minorities are A-OK legal and ready to vote.

Sekhmet on September 10, 2012 at 9:17 AM

Nope, this isn’t about race at all…….

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 9:12 AM

Gonna put ya’ll back in chains!

Bishop on September 10, 2012 at 9:17 AM

those employed by bureaucracies

So those employed by any large corporation? I didn’t realize the Dems had all their votes.

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 9:18 AM

Nope, this isn’t about race at all…….

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 9:12 AM

A sure sign that you have realized you’re losing the debate. We need better trolls.

AubieJon on September 10, 2012 at 9:19 AM

I have two three words for you: “Chump change”. With the emphasis on “chump“.

jbh45 on September 10, 2012 at 9:19 AM

No dude. I’m following an electoral demographic trendline that has continued unabated every. single. Presidential. election (outside of 1996) since 1980. Your comparison to 2010 is irrelevant, that was a midterm election. The trendline measures Presidential elections.

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 9:09 AM

In 2008 the White Voters participation in the general elections was 74%, in 2010 it was 78%… There is no way under the sun the in 2012 the White Voters participation is going to be less than 74%… If you think it will be less than you are delusional…

Also I just ran my prediction model assuming that the White Voters participation decrease by 2% from 2008 and an increase of Blacks and Hispanics then Romney would still win the elections by taking 10% from Obama 2008 “White Voters” combined with 3% of Obama 2008 voters staying home…

mnjg on September 10, 2012 at 9:20 AM

We know how this movie ends, the lead actor just changes in each sequel.

PappyD61 on September 10, 2012 at 9:03 AM

One of the talking heads on Fox’s morning show helped clarify Romneys statement about keeping some of Obamacare, buy explaining that he will take the winning position of being a…wait for it…compassionate conservative.

Of all phrases to use…he picked the stinking ghost of “compassionate conservative”.
It’s almost like a subtle form of sabotage imo.

Mimzey on September 10, 2012 at 9:20 AM

OT: Looks like voter enthusiasm in NC is down by half vs 2008.

Absentee Ballot Applications Down by Nearly Half in North Carolina

We are beginning to get the first early voting statistics out of North Carolina, which started mailing absentee ballots on Friday, Sept. 7. Election officials report delivering 21,875 mail ballots as of Saturday, Sept. 8, and two ballots were accepted. Congratulations Daniel and Justin, you are the first two people to vote for president in the 2012 general election! What do the number of ballot requests tell us so far? It is difficult to make a true comparison to 2008 since the first day that election administrators mailed ballots in 2008 was on Monday, Sept. 15 and in 2012, it was earlier on Friday, Sept. 7. To make the most consistent comparison as possible, I generate statistics for the this first date of mailing of ballots. The number of absentee ballot applications is down by nearly half from 2008. In 2008, election officials had received 37,539 applications compared to 20,695 in 2012, or 45 percent fewer applications.

http://thevotingnews.com/state/north-carolina/absentee-ballot-applications-down-by-nearly-half-in-north-carolina-huffington-post/

sentinelrules on September 10, 2012 at 9:21 AM

Wasn’t, until your boy started slicing and dicing the electorate.

You’re right. Race and gender weren’t political issues until Barack Obama became President. You do realize that no one but the most blinded right wing ideologues believe that right?

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 9:22 AM

bayview on September 10, 2012 at 9:17 AM

Heh

Weight of Glory on September 10, 2012 at 9:23 AM

It matters little what Romney has on hand as he cannot outspend the multiple billions the lemmings on the dole receive from Obama’s government and they only vote with their sorry pocketbooks not their minds or out of duty to country. I feel God has lifted His hand of blessing because of our perverseness and will allow the people to believe another lie. They did in 2008.

wepeople on September 10, 2012 at 9:24 AM

In 2008 the White Voters participation in the general elections was 74%, in 2010 it was 78%… There is no way under the sun the in 2012 the White Voters participation is going to be less than 74%… If you think it will be less than you are delusional…

Your conflation of midterm and Presidential elections totally delegitimizes your attempt to run an election model. Seriously. This is politics 101…..

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 9:24 AM

OT: Despite having convention in Charlotte, Obama camp abandons North Carolina

http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/316394/romney-pollster-ignore-sugar-high-democrat-convention

sentinelrules on September 10, 2012 at 9:25 AM

Nope, this isn’t about race at all…….

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 9:12 AM

What I said absolutely true and has nothing to do with race… A welfare queen can be White, Black, Hispanic, or any other race… The biggest racists on the planet are the White Liberals like you who for the last five decades have utterly destroyed the black society and made a large number of them depending on tax payers handouts in return for a vote for the liberal politicians…

mnjg on September 10, 2012 at 9:25 AM

Also I just ran my prediction model assuming that the White Voters participation decrease by 2% from 2008 and an increase of Blacks and Hispanics then Romney would still win the elections by taking 10% from Obama 2008 “White Voters” combined with 3% of Obama 2008 voters staying home…

mnjg on September 10, 2012 at 9:20 AM

And what do you have as Obama’s support with African Americans and Latinos?

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 9:26 AM

In 2008 the White Voters participation in the general elections was 74%, in 2010 it was 78%… There is no way under the sun the in 2012 the White Voters participation is going to be less than 74%… If you think it will be less than you are delusional…

Also I just ran my prediction model assuming that the White Voters participation decrease by 2% from 2008 and an increase of Blacks and Hispanics then Romney would still win the elections by taking 10% from Obama 2008 “White Voters” combined with 3% of Obama 2008 voters staying home…

mnjg on September 10, 2012 at 9:20 AM

I have to agree. Odumdum got the most votes from his different groups that he’s ever gonna get in that “historic” election. The additional GOP voters who see what happens when you don’t vote, voters that have switched, those that will just stay home from no hope and change, will sink him.

msupertas on September 10, 2012 at 9:29 AM

What I said absolutely true and has nothing to do with race…

Everyone knows that the Republican party invented the concept of the “welfare queen” as a code word for women of color. This is something even many Republicans admit. But protest all you like.

The biggest racists on the planet are the White Liberals like you

Ha! You’re cute.

who for the last five decades have utterly destroyed the black society and made a large number of them depending on tax payers handouts in return for a vote for the liberal politicians…

mnjg on September 10, 2012 at 9:25 AM

You don’t know a thing about the history of African Americans over the past 50 years. Trust me. Read some actual history books.

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Your conflation of midterm and Presidential elections totally delegitimizes your attempt to run an election model. Seriously. This is politics 101…..

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 9:24 AM

My prediction model is simple but powerful. As I told you before there is no way the White Voters turnout in 2012 is going to be less than 2008… I also ran the model with White Voters turnout as 2% less than 2008 and it still show a Romney victory if he takes 10% of Obama 2008 “White Voters” and 3% of Obama 2008 voters staying home. My prediciton model is based on 2008 exit polls regarding race participation in each state and the percentage of share that Obama got from each race… Nothing that complicated about it, just simple math…

mnjg on September 10, 2012 at 9:30 AM

I have to agree. Odumdum got the most votes from his different groups that he’s ever gonna get in that “historic” election. The additional GOP voters who see what happens when you don’t vote, voters that have switched, those that will just stay home from no hope and change, will sink him.

msupertas on September 10, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Yeah, why use actual data when you can go on a feeling.

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 9:31 AM

And what do you have as Obama’s support with African Americans and Latinos?

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 9:26 AM

I am assuming that Obama will get the same support in 2012 as in 2008 among Blacks and Hispanics…

mnjg on September 10, 2012 at 9:32 AM

i have no doubt that Obama’s team manipulated the figures(just a hunch).

Also remember Mitt can write a 40 million check to himself at any time.

I also have no doubts that democratic leaning pollsters are push polling for Obama.

ther is no way more democrats are turning out for Obama than for Romney.

gerrym51 on September 10, 2012 at 9:32 AM

“In a related story, Team Obama turns off address verification for their credit card donations and receives a record number of odd dollar value donations…”

Seriously, who donates $2.16? No one, except maybe someone donating in foreign currency resulting in odd number exchange rate valuations.

The press remains strangely uninterested.

mitchellvii on September 10, 2012 at 9:35 AM

Nope, this isn’t about race at all…….

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 9:12 AM

What I said absolutely true and has nothing to do with race… A welfare queen can be White, Black, Hispanic, or any other race… The biggest racists on the planet are the White Liberals like you who for the last five decades have utterly destroyed the black society and made a large number of them depending on tax payers handouts in return for a vote for the liberal politicians…

mnjg on September 10, 2012 at 9:25 AM

Ooof. Right in the gut.

msupertas on September 10, 2012 at 9:36 AM

And what do you have as Obama’s support with African Americans and Latinos?

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 9:26 AM

The African-American and Latino electorate (as in percentage who can and will vote) will be unchanged or diminished from 2008. You place your hope on a growth that will not come.

Sekhmet on September 10, 2012 at 9:36 AM

its something about replacing obamcare by romneycare:

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/mitt-romney-number-of-things-i-like-in-obamacare-that-im-going-to-put-in-place/

nathor on September 10, 2012 at 9:01 AM

Somethings that are worthwhile for all to read:

http://www.nationalreview.com/blogs/print/316390

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/316381/pre-existing-ignorance-yuval-levin#more

BuckeyeSam on September 10, 2012 at 9:38 AM

I am assuming that Obama will get the same support in 2012 as in 2008 among Blacks and Hispanics…

mnjg on September 10, 2012 at 9:32 AM

With black voters that makes sense. But with Latino voters? I think you’ve got a problem on your hands. We’re in a post Arizona Latino Jim Crow law world. I believe Obama pulled in around 60% of the Latino vote in 2008? I bet that number rises to 80% in 2012. So run your model with the white % slipping 2%, black percentage staying the same (or even slipping by a %) and Latino voters supporting Obama at 80%-20.

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 9:39 AM

Four words : burn rate.

Weight of Glory on September 10, 2012 at 9:01 AM

That should be three words.

bayview on September 10, 2012 at 9:06 AM

There are three kinds of people ….those that can count and those that can’t.

lynncgb on September 10, 2012 at 9:39 AM

Who should conservatives trust more mnjg or Scott Rasmussen?

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 9:41 AM

Also remember Mitt can write a 40 million check to himself at any time.

gerrym51 on September 10, 2012 at 9:32 AM

Obama can write a 40 billion check to himself. If he wins, he can recoup it from the Treasury. If he loses, he will likely flee to his native Kenya or maybe Indonesia or Venezuela. And if banks refuse to honor the check, he will instruct DOJ to sue them out of the house.

Archivarix on September 10, 2012 at 9:42 AM

Burn Rate. 2 words that will live in infamy.

gerrym51 on September 10, 2012 at 9:43 AM

Yeah, why use actual data when you can go on a feeling.

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Alrighty then, some data. Crowds down by 50-60 percent on the trail. Can’t fill BOA stadium, has to move to a venue with one third capacity. Gets a paltry four point gallup lead only after his DOJ threatens to sue over bad poll numbers. Adding up.

msupertas on September 10, 2012 at 9:43 AM

With black voters that makes sense. But with Latino voters? I think you’ve got a problem on your hands. We’re in a post Arizona Latino Jim Crow law world. I believe Obama pulled in around 60% of the Latino vote in 2008? I bet that number rises to 80% in 2012. So run your model with the white % slipping 2%, black percentage staying the same (or even slipping by a %) and Latino voters supporting Obama at 80%-20.

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 9:39 AM

You are dreaming about Hispanics going 80% for Obama in 2012… No way no how… They will vote for Obama in 2012 with the same percentage they voted for him in 2008…

mnjg on September 10, 2012 at 9:44 AM

Who should conservatives trust more mnjg or Scott Rasmussen?

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 9:41 AM

Really? Less than an hour ago you were blasting Rasmussen…in this thread!

Also the only polling agency that you have saying Obama will lose 10% of white voters is Rasmussen.

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 8:54 AM

sentinelrules on September 10, 2012 at 9:44 AM

Yeah, why use actual data when you can go on a feeling.

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Oh yeah, I forgot all those voters who won’t be able to vote multiple times because of voter ID.

msupertas on September 10, 2012 at 9:45 AM

Ooof. Right in the gut.

msupertas on September 10, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Yeah but….it’s racist.

Bishop on September 10, 2012 at 9:46 AM

Money aside, I’m starting to worry that, as Trump said on F&F this morning, Romney needs to toughen up on Øbama. I’m gonna be watching real close this week, and if it looks like a repeat of McCain’s Mr. Nice Guy campaign, I’m going to be very upset.

If Romney is holding back because he’s afraid that Øbama will call him a racist, then a pox on them all.

petefrt on September 10, 2012 at 9:04 AM

I had heard that Romney didn’t campaign over the weekend in order to prepare to debate Obama.

Oh, puh-LEEEEZE! The debates don’t start until October–it’s time to get out there and negate Obama’s post-convention “bounce” and rebut the false claims of his acceptance speech. We hear Obama saying that we shouldn’t repeat the failed policy of the last decade…HUH? A decade ago was 2002, the aftermath of 9/11, and things got LOTS better by 2007, and have never been the same ever since Obummer got in office. But Romney needs to get on the tube and call him out on such nonsense!!!

Now is the time to start SPENDING those hundreds of millions on hard-hitting TV ads and a strong ground game, and let’s not worry about debate prep until…two days before the first debate!

Steve Z on September 10, 2012 at 9:46 AM

With black voters that makes sense. But with Latino voters? I think you’ve got a problem on your hands. We’re in a post Arizona Latino Jim Crow law world. I believe Obama pulled in around 60% of the Latino vote in 2008? I bet that number rises to 80% in 2012. So run your model with the white % slipping 2%, black percentage staying the same (or even slipping by a %) and Latino voters supporting Obama at 80%-20.

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 9:39 AM

I thought we were going with facts, not feelings. Smarten up.

msupertas on September 10, 2012 at 9:48 AM

With black voters that makes sense. But with Latino voters? I think you’ve got a problem on your hands. We’re in a post Arizona Latino Jim Crow law world. I believe Obama pulled in around 60% of the Latino vote in 2008? I bet that number rises to 80% in 2012. So run your model with the white % slipping 2%, black percentage staying the same (or even slipping by a %) and Latino voters supporting Obama at 80%-20.

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 9:39 AM

And the polls of Latinos you are counting on make no distinction between citizen and alien. If they can’t vote, their opinion doesn’t matter

Sekhmet on September 10, 2012 at 9:48 AM

Who should conservatives trust more mnjg or Scott Rasmussen?

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 9:41 AM

And by next week Rasmussen would show the race tied again if not Romney ahead… It has been like this for a while in the Rasmussen daily tracking poll…

mnjg on September 10, 2012 at 9:48 AM

Nov 2010 midterms
WI Gov recall
Obamacare SC decision
8.1% UE
$16 tril debt
$4 gas
Solyndra/F&F/Lightsquared boondoggles
Support of gay marriage
Forced religious inst to cover contraception
Abandoned GOD at DNC
WORST OFF BY FAR THAN 4 YRS AGO
////////////////////////////
all point to Romney by 7%.

hillsoftx on September 10, 2012 at 9:48 AM

The leftists are in a panic and are squeezing their contributors in the face of an impending disaster.

rplat on September 10, 2012 at 9:49 AM

Really? Less than an hour ago you were blasting Rasmussen…in this thread!
sentinelrules on September 10, 2012 at 9:44 AM

Can you please do some work on your reading comprehension?

Who should conservatives trust more mnjg or Scott Rasmussen?

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 9:41 AM

My criticism of Rasmussen earlier in the thread argued that he has a conservative bias, therefore my claim that conservatives should accept him is even more important. Despite his conservative bias he has Obama at 50% among the coveted “likely voter” screen.

You are dreaming about Hispanics going 80% for Obama in 2012… No way no how… They will vote for Obama in 2012 with the same percentage they voted for him in 2008…

mnjg on September 10, 2012 at 9:44 AM

Now who’s being delusional. I don’t think Latinos will vote at 80%. In 2008 they voted for Obama at 67%, I suspect that in 2012 they will vote for Obama in the low 70s. Perhaps 72%. Why don’t you run that model of yours again with a 72% Obama latino vote.

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 9:52 AM

It seems the Obama campaign outreach to liberal billionaires has worked. After the last few months of falling behind Romney, they were begging them to open their wallets, warning of a Romney spending spree in the fall. A few 10 million dollar checks can make all the difference.

breffnian on September 10, 2012 at 9:52 AM

And the polls of Latinos you are counting on make no distinction between citizen and alien. If they can’t vote, their opinion doesn’t matter

Sekhmet on September 10, 2012 at 9:48 AM

So your argument is that non-citizens Latinos are lying to pollsters on the question of whether they are registered to vote? In order to bolster Obama’s poll numbers? Makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Now who’s being delusional. I don’t think Latinos will vote at 80%. In 2008 they voted for Obama at 67%, I suspect that in 2012 they will vote for Obama in the low 70s. Perhaps 72%. Why don’t you run that model of yours again with a 72% Obama latino vote.

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 9:52 AM

Again, more feelings, not facts as you accuse me. Are you even trying anymore?

msupertas on September 10, 2012 at 9:54 AM

So your argument is that non-citizens Latinos are lying to pollsters on the question of whether they are registered to vote? In order to bolster Obama’s poll numbers? Makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Welcome to your modern Dem party. Glad yor’re seeing the light.

msupertas on September 10, 2012 at 9:55 AM

My criticism of Rasmussen earlier in the thread argued that he has a conservative bias, therefore my claim that conservatives should accept him is even more important. Despite his conservative bias he has Obama at 50% among the coveted “likely voter” screen

.

Really? I don’t see the words “conservative bias” in your prior posting.

Your logic indicates that Rasmussen posts incorrect data and then you legitimize it when that polling outfit releases data which is favorable to you.

It’s called hypocrisy. Please look up that word.

sentinelrules on September 10, 2012 at 9:58 AM

It seems the Obama campaign outreach to liberal billionaires has worked.
breffnian on September 10, 2012 at 9:52 AM

Liberal rich people are secretly part of the 99%. They actually feel quite guilty about having so much while so many other people have so little.

Bishop on September 10, 2012 at 10:01 AM

Now who’s being delusional. I don’t think Latinos will vote at 80%. In 2008 they voted for Obama at 67%, I suspect that in 2012 they will vote for Obama in the low 70s. Perhaps 72%. Why don’t you run that model of yours again with a 72% Obama latino vote.

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 9:52 AM

While we’re at it, why don’t we run it with 100% latino, 100% black, 100% LGBT, 100% Jew, 100% muslim. Anyone else? Maybe now you can sqeeze out a win.

msupertas on September 10, 2012 at 10:02 AM

Now who’s being delusional. I don’t think Latinos will vote at 80%. In 2008 they voted for Obama at 67%, I suspect that in 2012 they will vote for Obama in the low 70s. Perhaps 72%. Why don’t you run that model of yours again with a 72% Obama latino vote.

libfreeordie on September 10, 2012 at 9:52 AM

Even if Obama gets 72% of the Hispanic vote in 2012 he would still lose to Romney… I increased Obama gains among Latinos by 5% in the Battleground states and Romney still wins the electoratal vote including Florida and Colorado according to my prediction model…

mnjg on September 10, 2012 at 10:02 AM

Comment pages: 1 2