Memo from Romney campaign pollster: Mellow out about the bad polls lately

posted at 4:44 pm on September 10, 2012 by Allahpundit

Erick Erickson’s exactly right about this. Two simple points. One: Needless to say, the race isn’t over. O got his bounce — he’s up to 50 percent and a five-point lead today in Rasmussen — but it’ll fade. In fact, it looks like he’s already leveling off in Gallup’s tracker, with his job approval now down two points from its peak of 52 percent four days ago. Things will tighten up. Even your friendly neighborhood eeyorepundit thinks so.

Two: For the moment, though, Romney’s behind. Cue the pep talk from Romney pollster Neil Newhouse:

Don’t get too worked up about the latest polling. While some voters will feel a bit of a sugar-high from the conventions, the basic structure of the race has not changed significantly. The reality of the Obama economy will reassert itself as the ultimate downfall of the Obama Presidency, and Mitt Romney will win this race…

All Signs Point to a Tight Race: Those watching the daily tracking polls know that, while the President has seen a bounce from his convention, his approval has already begun to slip, indicating it is likely to recede further. In eight states, Pollster.com’s reporting of the most recent statewide polls puts the margin between the two candidates at less than three points, virtually guaranteeing a tight race.Next, the battlefield has actually expanded, not contracted. Note that Wisconsin is now in play and our campaign is now up with ads in that state, while the latest poll numbers from the Albuquerque Journal in New Mexico show the race closing there. And this tightening is not an anomaly. Consider the traditional Democratic strongholds of New Jersey and Connecticut, won by President Obama in 2008 by margins of 15 points and 22 points, respectively. In both states, Pollster.com’s reporting of the most recent statewide polls puts Obama’s lead at only seven points in each of these states.

Follow the link for the familiar litany of why-Romney-will-win arguments: Huge fundraising, higher Republican enthusiasm, the pitiful Obama economy, the 1980-ish late break among undecideds after the debate. A “top Romney advisor” is putting on a brave face for Rich Lowry too:

It’s horses**t. Nobody in Boston thinks we’re going to lose. We’re in a tight race. We had a 4-5 point bounce after our convention and it evaporated when they had theirs. Now they have a 4-5 bounce. It’s going to evaporate in September. We feel good about the map. We’re up with advertising in Wisconsin and I think North Carolina is going to come off the board. On Ohio, they’ve been spinning for months now that it’s out of reach…

I actually think the other side is in a panic. You look at New Mexico closing up. And they’re not above 50 in any of their target states. Look, we’re raising money, they’re raising money, and it’s tight. This is a dogfight. But the numbers actually point to a romney win barring something unforeseen.

My chief worry here is that Romney’s still betting big that despair over Obamanomics will drive undecideds towards him at the last minute, with the October and November jobs reports potential gamechangers if they’re especially dismal. Could be, but it also could be that the worse the economy looks, paradoxically the more Obama is inoculated from public opinion on it. I remember writing last year that voters could end up being convinced that the financial crisis and its fallout were so horrendous that realistically no one could have brought the country back in four years, even though the whole point of Obama’s 2008 campaign was that he was a messianic figure capable of unprecedented achievements. That was, in fact, the crux of Bill Clinton’s speech at the convention — that the Great Recession was just a bit more unprecedented and impressive than the Unicorn Prince was, so we need to give him more time to repair it. If that’s what undecideds are thinking, then two more terrible jobs reports might not shake loose the votes Romney needs to put him over the top. On the contrary, they could reinforce the impression that while O deserves some blame for the state of the economy, this mess has been so awful and protracted that it’s beyond any one would-be demigod’s power to fix.

And yes, needless to say, it is troubling that a president might be excused for a disastrous record partly because it’s disastrous, but that’s Hopenchange for you. Some swing voters foolishly believed the myth four years ago and a critical chunk of them will be reluctant to admit that they were suckered. (That’s why Romney’s been careful to frame his attacks on O as disappointment, not anger: As an advisor told Byron York recently, they don’t want to be seen as rubbing disillusioned Obama voters’ faces in their mistake.) They’re looking for reasons to think they made a good decision in voting for him the first time, and “no one could have fixed this economy” fits the bill nicely. None of which is to say that Romney can’t win anyway; there are lots and lots and lots of Republican attack ads to come. It’s simply to say that the biggest weapon in his campaign arsenal might not be as big as we think, which might help answer Powerline’s question of why this election, which should be a cakewalk, is so close. If even perennial Democratic doomsayer Doug Schoen is now writing posts like this, a bit of eeyorism may be in order.


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Rove was just on Hannity and said that he thinks Romney will win IN, NC, FL, VA, NH, WI, IA, CO, NV, and OH – and will possibly win MI, NM, & PA.

JA on September 10, 2012 at 4:46 PM

But But…Oblamer is so dreamy……..

FlaMurph on September 10, 2012 at 4:47 PM

They’re looking for reasons to think they made a good decision in voting for him the first time, and “no one could have fixed this economy” fits the bill nicely.

This is based on nothing and dovetails nicely with baldilocks constant chirping about polls being skewed because of this that and the other.

tommyhawk on September 10, 2012 at 4:49 PM

Memo from CNN: Obama 52, Romney 46.

Six point lead and Obama over 50%. This is scary. Really bad times. This race is over…

Wait, a month ago they had Obama 52, Romney 45…? Nevermind. I never thought pollsters would twist numbers to create a narrative.

Gingotts on September 10, 2012 at 4:49 PM

I just don’t believe this race is that close. There is no reason for anyone outside of a full blown socialist to vote for that rat eared dope.

Big Orange on September 10, 2012 at 4:49 PM

Rove was just on Hannity and said that he thinks Romney will win IN, NC, FL, VA, NH, WI, IA, CO, NV, and OH – and will possibly win MI, NM, & PA.

JA on September 10, 2012 at 4:46 PM

I was going to mock this, but then I realized it’s a joke. Right?

tommyhawk on September 10, 2012 at 4:50 PM

The PPP Poll was weighted strongly in favor of Obama according to this article.

http://theulstermanreport.com/2012/09/10/white-house-insider-ohio-now-turning-to-romney-polling-data-101/

Conservalicious on September 10, 2012 at 4:51 PM

Thanks for taking a stab at understanding the mindset of the 2012 Obama voter, AP. I have friends of 25 years whom I admire and who are normally very reasonable who think Obama is still inspirational and doing the best job that could be expected.

It makes me wonder how I came to be friends with them in the first place. Oh yeah … I used to be a Democrat.

Nicole Coulter on September 10, 2012 at 4:51 PM

tommyhawk on September 10, 2012 at 4:49 PM

If you’re referring to the longtime HA poster named “baldilocks”, she has not been around lately. If you’re referring to Ed, be adult enough to call him by his name.

kingsjester on September 10, 2012 at 4:51 PM

On the contrary, they could reinforce the impression that while O deserves some blame for the state of the economy, this mess has been so awful and protracted that it’s beyond any one would-be demigod’s power to fix.

Yeah. Could be we’ve become desensitized to the rotten numbers, or maybe people simply do accept it as the new normal.

That said, he rode in on his white horse promising to heal the economy, even the planet itself. He ought to be bearing more responsibility for the fact the results didn’t match his rhetoric.

changer1701 on September 10, 2012 at 4:51 PM

The media is trying to harsh our mellow. Never underestimate the dishonesty of a democrat.

BruthaMan on September 10, 2012 at 4:51 PM

There is one reason and one reason alone why this race is currently close: celebrity.

We’ve become a nation obsessed with celebrity. Obama is one. Romney is one of those square squares.

Nothing else makes sense.

Red Cloud on September 10, 2012 at 4:52 PM

The only problem is campaigns usually don’t go to that length to contradict a pollster. When they do, it’s spin because they ARE losing.

If the polls are wrong, someone from the campaign will usually leak some internals to one respected reporter, who will relay the info. This happened recently in Nevada, when some polls had Angle beating Reid, and the Reid campaign showed detailed internals to Jon Ralston, showing Reid ahead. And the Reid campaign was right. But there was none of this ridiculous spinning/whining.

gumbyandpokey on September 10, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Obama will be known as Obamondale after the election.

SirGawain on September 10, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Journolist is simply taking advantage of the temporary polling data…they have to protect their investment.

d1carter on September 10, 2012 at 4:52 PM

TIPP poll just came out with a D+5 weighting and obama only up 2. It has obama only getting 37% of white vote. If this holds there is no way obama wins.http://www.tipponline.com/presidency/news/presidency/race-tightens-as-obama-advantage-narrows-to-2-points

Ta111 on September 10, 2012 at 4:53 PM

There is one reason and one reason alone why this race is currently close: celebrity.

We’ve become a nation obsessed with celebrity. Obama is one. Romney is one of those square squares.

Nothing else makes sense.

Red Cloud on September 10, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Well he’s no Reagan!

tommyhawk on September 10, 2012 at 4:53 PM

There is one reason and one reason alone why this race is currently close: celebrity.

We’ve become a nation obsessed with celebrity. Obama is one. Romney is one of those square squares.

Nothing else makes sense.

Red Cloud on September 10, 2012 at 4:52 PM

You nailed it.

changer1701 on September 10, 2012 at 4:53 PM

“Wait, a month ago they had Obama 52, Romney 45…? Nevermind. I never thought pollsters would twist numbers to create a narrative.”

I thought they had Romney down one point following the GOP convention?

One interesting thing about the new CNN poll is that Romney is +14 with Independents.

gumbyandpokey on September 10, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Romney’s been careful to frame his attacks on O as disappointment, not anger: As an advisor told Byron York recently, they don’t want to be seen as rubbing disillusioned Obama voters’ faces in their mistake

This is the problem.

His reluctance to persoanlly attack Obama with full force maintains Obama’s likeability edge while making reluctant conservatives question his conservative credentials.

It’s lose-lose.

You win by burying Barky with hard-hitting, personal attack ads. Those “idisllusioned Obama voters” will just stay home if Obama looks like an electoral loser come early November.

Norwegian on September 10, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Memo from Romney campaign pollster: Hot Air PostersMellow out about the bad polls lately

Not that people will listen but hey it was worth a shot.

gophergirl on September 10, 2012 at 4:54 PM

the October and November jobs reports potential gamechangers if they’re especially dismal. Could be, but it also could be that the worse the economy looks, paradoxically the more Obama is inoculated from public opinion on it

Of course, Obama’s mentor Alinsky predicts exactly that

The goal is to foment enough public discontent, moral confusion, and outright chaos to spark the social upheaval that Marx, Engels, and Lenin predicted

– a revolution whose foot soldiers view the status quo as fatally flawed and wholly unworthy of salvation. Thus, the theory goes, the people will settle for nothing less than that status quo’s complete collapse

– to be followed by the erection of an entirely new system upon its ruins.

Toward that end, they will be apt to follow the lead of charismatic radical organizers who project an aura of confidence and vision, and who profess to clearly understand what types of societal “changes” are needed.

faraway on September 10, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Yeah, stay mellow, despite the fact that months ago people like Dick Morris were saying by this time Romney would have a huge lead, but it’s the opposite. Just my fear. NO, don’t mellow out. These guys need to get upset bigtime. Because their campaign and ill-advised strategy is failing bigtime. My comment on another thread:

Romney must abandon ship, and quick, with the discredited Median Voter Theory.

The Median Voter Theory, especially in Romney’s case (because he has been accused of skirting the issues to curry political favor), is a loser. Watch today’s Morning Joe. Joe & Halperin have a huge point: Romney needs to take conservative stands.
Plus, abandon ship on the “swing state strategy.” Every candidate that has tried that, has lost. The national conservation bleeds in to the swing states, and will overrun your pinpoint targeted swing state effort. You need to affect that conservation on a national level with your ads. SO, run your ads largely on a national level.

anotherJoe on September 10, 2012 at 4:56 PM

Not that people will listen but hey it was worth a shot.

gophergirl on September 10, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Ain’t that the truth…

sandee on September 10, 2012 at 4:56 PM

One interesting thing about the new CNN poll is that Romney is +14 with Independents.

gumbyandpokey on September 10, 2012 at 4:54 PM

So, naturally that means that this was a D+10 sample, right? How else could they arrive at Obama +7 if he’s losing that badly with independents.

Nicole Coulter on September 10, 2012 at 4:57 PM

It is time for that infomercial idea Ace has pitched a time or 2. Just doing it shows a level of seriousness, but there are some big themes that need to be addressed and get brought into this debate.

This whole focus on collecting more “revenue”, and the supposed failure of trickle down economics. People want to believe they can have all their goodies and have someone else pay for it. That’s the illusion that everything the Dem’s do (minus the sideshow distractions) hinges on. Need people to see the long term trends in revenue and spending, both in terms of raw dollars and in GDP. The dollars dropped in 2008 for obvious reasons, but we’re both metrics are trending up, up, up as always. This is not about collecting more revenue.

Need to talk about where the entitlements are going, and talk about this Medicare cut, and why the fact it was used to prop up O Care makes it worst of all.

The Dem’s are totally unserious. I don’t think we’ve crossed the point of no return yet – just think about how 2010 went. Yes, off year elections are different, but I think the real reason this is closer than any of us think is because people vote for really stupid reasons. It takes extraordinary steps to break through the media filter, and the talks about Wa-Wa’s, haircuts, Akin, taxes, mormonism, and whatever else they can throw out there.

stldave on September 10, 2012 at 4:57 PM

That was, in fact, the crux of Bill Clinton’s speech at the convention — that the Great Recession was just a bit more unprecedented and impressive than the Unicorn Prince was, so we need to give him more time to repair it. If that’s what undecideds are thinking, then two more terrible jobs reports might not shake loose the votes Romney needs to put him over the top. On the contrary, they could reinforce the impression that while O deserves some blame for the state of the economy, this mess has been so awful and protracted that it’s beyond any one would-be demigod’s power to fix.

If he is reelected, and that is their rationale for doing so the uninformed undecideds are in for the rudest awakening in history. There is a veritable avalanche of small businesses desperately hanging on to see if we’re going to vote the Marxists out. If Obama gets back in, many of them are going to throw up their hands and close up shop by year’s end. When you add to that those who are going to go Galt on principle “buyer’s remorse” won’t begin to cover the spectrum of emotions these idiots will already be feeling even before Obama is sworn in for a second term.

Kataklysmic on September 10, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Good grief. If the Obama internals were as great as all these dopey polls, why on earth is Axelrod sending out all his idiot, troll minions? All day, every day. There are posters on these boards who have NEVER posted before, and they all sound exactly the same.

BettyRuth on September 10, 2012 at 4:57 PM

The only problem is campaigns usually don’t go to that length to contradict a pollster. When they do, it’s spin because they ARE losing.

If the polls are wrong, someone from the campaign will usually leak some internals to one respected reporter, who will relay the info. This happened recently in Nevada, when some polls had Angle beating Reid, and the Reid campaign showed detailed internals to Jon Ralston, showing Reid ahead. And the Reid campaign was right. But there was none of this ridiculous spinning/whining.

gumbyandpokey on September 10, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Um, they contradict pollsters all the time. Sometimes they even threaten them, as Obama’s did with Gallup. Romney’s campaign needed to leak this memo because of all the weak kneed people on our side who think the races is over just because of a post-convention bounce.

changer1701 on September 10, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Not that people will listen but hey it was worth a shot.

gophergirl on September 10, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Ain’t that the truth…

sandee on September 10, 2012 at 4:56 PM

Ditto that..:)

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 4:57 PM

And yes, needless to say, it is troubling that a president might be excused for a disastrous record partly because it’s disastrous, but that’s Hopenchange for you

.

In two wars abroad, one on the border, another in Detroit, and yet another on every Elm St mortgage in the 57 States and still the peeps dialed in for the Hope-n-change + shipping and handling. No need to worry? 2000 and 2008 weren’t odd enough for you as to where the peeps had their heads?

Thank goodness not everyone is buying that Barry is toast.

Limerick on September 10, 2012 at 4:57 PM

All the unemployed are thinking…if we just give him four more years, all will be well. LOL.

d1carter on September 10, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Good grief. If the Obama internals were as great as all these dopey polls, why on earth is Axelrod sending out all his idiot, troll minions? All day, every day. There are posters on these boards who have NEVER posted before, and they all sound exactly the same.

BettyRuth on September 10, 2012 at 4:57 PM

And they are. I have found posters here under other names post the same exact thing on other blog sites within minutes.

sandee on September 10, 2012 at 4:59 PM

We’ve become a nation obsessed with celebrity. Obama is one. Romney is one of those square squares.

Nothing else makes sense.

Red Cloud on September 10, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Romney should have nationwide attack ads showing how Obama is running around talking about Nikki Minaj instead of trying to create jobs.

Obama would be forced to reorient his campaign.

faraway on September 10, 2012 at 4:59 PM

All Romney need do is be optimistic and confident he can turn the economy around in short order (and he can). Making the U.S. a stable, business-friendly environment is not a mystery to free marketeers–unless you abandoned free markets so you could save them or something.
And I agree with Big Orange. This race ain’t that close, Obama is fading much faster than the polls can track. Anybody old enough to remember 1980 knows this.

cartooner on September 10, 2012 at 4:59 PM

The problem — or at least the annoying thing — with Team Mitt starting a year ago is that they are extremely risk adverse until and unless they take a shot to the gut, as with the problems he had during primary season. Romney played not to lose up until the point where Gingrich or Santorum started to seem to be a real threat, then the heavy ammo was rolled out.

But unlike the primaries, Romney doesn’t have a huge $$$ advantage in the general, and he certainly doesn’t have an unbiased big media that’s not leaning over backwards for the other guy for the next 57 days. That’s not to say the big media wasn’t hostile to Romney in the primaries at times. But like Mikey in the old Life cereal commercial, they didn’t just hate Mitt, they hated all the GOPers not named Jon Huutsman, so none of the top contenders had the press advantage Obama has and will have.

You can’t run a ‘play not to lose’ campaign over the final seven weeks, because you’re not going to be able to carpet bomb the swing states unopposed if you suddenly find out you haven’t made your case to the moderates by Oct. 15 or so, because Team Obama is going to be bombing right back, and the big media isn’t going to be on your side. Hopefully this weekend’s been a bit of a wake-up call for Team Mitt, but they don’t really react very fast unless they truly think they’re in a crisis situation.

jon1979 on September 10, 2012 at 4:59 PM

He needs to run some ads about the olympics and how when the committee needed someone of character, integrity and business ability, the coice was easy; Mitt Romney.

And when Bubba says no one could have fixed this economy, they need to go back and find some business leaders saying that Mitt Romney could have and will.

Time to kick some ass.

joepub on September 10, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Rove was just on Hannity and said that he thinks Romney will win IN, NC, FL, VA, NH, WI, IA, CO, NV, and OH – and will possibly win MI, NM, & PA.

JA on September 10, 2012 at 4:46 PM

I was going to mock this, but then I realized it’s a joke. Right?

tommyhawk on September 10, 2012 at 4:50 PM

They’re all entirely plausible, but MI/NM/PA are a stretch.

peski on September 10, 2012 at 5:00 PM

As campaigns disintegrate they emit comforting noises in the form of urgent memos to ward off a general panic in the ranks. It never works, because bad begets worse as perceptions harden into the social fact of conventional wisdom.

Romney’s strategy is premised on an economy so bad that voters will turn to him by default. Or as the writer above puts the case:

My chief worry here is that Romney’s still betting big that despair over Obamanomics will drive undecideds towards him at the last minute, with the October and November jobs reports potential gamechangers if they’re especially dismal.

Here, however, is the sad truth:

Could be, but it also could be that the worse the economy looks, paradoxically the more Obama is inoculated from public opinion on it.

Translation: Romney’s ‘strategy’ is to cut his own throat.

Romney only ever had one card to play and he played it. What does he do now but sit out the hand and pray? Team Romney was never in control of its own destiny.

casuist on September 10, 2012 at 5:00 PM

I have another eeyore analysis. the last few days I read a few stories of obama campaining and he campaigns great. It might be hard for some in the obama hating echo chamber to realize, but Obama is way better connecting to the average joe than mitt.
2 episodes:
-obama cracks birther joke in some beer place
-obama gets huged by some republican pizza place owner fan in yet another great youtube moment.

just like in 2008, obama is a very good personal campaigner and it will help him even if his message is now mostly spent. I doubt mitt can pull off the stunts obama is doing.

actually it is biden that will do more damage to obama with his continuous idiocies.

i

nathor on September 10, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Rove was just on Hannity and said that he thinks Romney will win IN, NC, FL, VA, NH, WI, IA, CO, NV, and OH – and will possibly win MI, NM, & PA.

JA on September 10, 2012 at 4:46 PM

..sure do like the reference to comment the takeaway on the Washington Examiner article is this analysis from one of the commenters:

AzRep

Obama is running no ads in Arizona, Missouri or Indiana and he has ceded those states to Romney.

Both Romney and Obama have massively reduced spending in North Carolina, with Romney ahead and Obama will cede North Carolina within three weeks, because he has $65M less cash on hand and has to target his resources.

Romney is currently ceding Pennsylvania and this might change, but at present it has to be considered solid Obama.This gives Obama 221 and Romney 206 with 10 states in play. Nevada, New Hampshire and New Mexico are too small to bet the presidency on and neither candidate will sweep all three states. It therefore comes down to Colorado, Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, Ohio and Iowa.Obama is confident he will win Michigan and Wisconsin, because he is spending very little in Wisconsin and nothing in Michigan. That would take him to between 252 and 256, depending on whether he wins one or two of the small states (NM, Nev. and NH).The fact that he is going crazy in Virginia and Iowa tells you everything you need to know. He knows he cannot bet the presidency on Florida, because it is trending red for the last decade, he has ticked off a lot of elderly Jews, Romney has now equaled his ground game there and he simply cannot bet the massive broadcast resources Florida requires, given his financial disadvantage.He cannot bet the presidency on Ohio, because it is filled with working class whites over thirty and as his recent performances in the primaries demonstrate, this group will never be reliable for him.

He cannot make a large bet on Colorado because it has gone Republican 8 out of 9 times between 1972 and 2004 and only went for him by two points last time because he outspent McCain 6 to 1 there. This would be like Romney betting the campaign on Pennsylvania. Obama is not that stupid.

That means Virginia and Iowa are both do or die, which is why he is pumping money into the D.C. suburbs and practically living in Des Moines.

What is hilarious is that the morons in the press keep talking about Romney’s “narrow path” in the electoral college, when it is Obama who has to thread the needle perfectly: Pennsylvania (probable), at least one of the three small states (probable), Michigan (probable, but still early on this one), Wisconsin (going to be tough), Virginia (gone Republican 9 of the last 10 times, he cannot outspend Romney 5 to 1 like he did McCain, not going to happen) and Iowa (not going to happen). He could make up for falling short in Virginia and Iowa by winning Florida or Ohio, but if he believed this was going to happen, he wouldn’t have spent three consecutive days in Iowa before the convention.

As far as the bed wetters on the right who panic every time Obama gets a 4 point poll bounce, I would refer you to the entire history of campaign polling and tell you to pull yourselves together. The laws of political gravity have not been repealed. On election day, the incumbent with the 60 score on the Consumer Confidence Index loses.

The War Planner on September 10, 2012 at 5:00 PM

The fact is there is a not a single category to measure the economy that is better than when Obama took office. He has driven us down by every measure save the values reflected in the stock market and that is explained by corporate debt being low and potential for growth high under favorable conditions that are not materializing. There are lower revenues there as well though.

It is amazing this country is showing the resilience it has over the last four years. Things are broken and the majority knows it.

DanMan on September 10, 2012 at 5:00 PM

All the unemployed are thinking…if we just give him four more years, all will be well. LOL.

d1carter on September 10, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Very good point!..:)

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 5:00 PM

..sure do like the reference to comment the takeaway on the Washington Examiner article is this analysis from one of the commenters..

..itchy trigger finger.

The War Planner on September 10, 2012 at 5:01 PM

I heard a little bit of Rush today and he mentioned that Sarah Hoyt piece from Pajama media that a couple of us linked to yesterday…and the lady is right. There is a concerted effort to create despondency and division on the right…and Rush agreed..the media and many other Democratic lapdogs are trying to bring people down.

Good Lord people, the Democratic convention was just over a few days ago…Brit Hume even got the vapors and said that the guy ahead in September usually wins and I thought Yeah unless he is named Dukakis or Carter.

But then again even conservative media is media and they tend to live in the same world..and so they forget that things are just as crappy today as they were two weeks ago..if anything they are worse.

So, in the words of Rush Limbaugh..Buck Up!

Terrye on September 10, 2012 at 5:02 PM

so if obama’s a lock and has this won, why is he still out there campaigning? (RUSH wants to know and so do I).

gracie on September 10, 2012 at 5:02 PM

Rove was just on Hannity and said that he thinks Romney will win IN, NC, FL, VA, NH, WI, IA, CO, NV, and OH – and will possibly win MI, NM, & PA.

JA on September 10, 2012 at 4:46 PM

I think he’ll win IN and NC…IN isn’t even being contested by Obama, is it? Aside from those two, though,everything else is up in the air.

changer1701 on September 10, 2012 at 5:02 PM

There is one reason and one reason alone why this race is currently close: celebrity. michelles arms.

Nothing else makes sense.

Red Cloud on September 10, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Buttercup on September 10, 2012 at 5:02 PM

I think there is something going on because I just noticed something very curious, the RCP’s electoral map suddenly changed Arizona this week from likely to leans Romney…with NO NEW POLLING since July.

HUH? How did that happen?

AZgranny on September 10, 2012 at 5:02 PM

Mellow out about the bad polls lately…. We’re going to lose this thing with dignity.

WisRich on September 10, 2012 at 5:02 PM

CNN Poll: Romney leads Independents by a 54%-40% margin
Which, according to this GOP guy, means that the LV sample is:
37% (D) 31.5 (R) and 31.5 (I)

Basically, a 2008 electorate, which might be common with a bounce.

http://twitter.com/justkarl

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/09/10/rel10a.pdf

sentinelrules on September 10, 2012 at 5:02 PM

ALERT ON CNN POLL:

Romney is beating Obama 55-40 with Independents…yet still down by 5..eye roll…This whole poll is BS.

The one consistent in all these polls that are attempting to demoralize Rs and set the narrative is that Romney is winning the Indies. That is a good thing and discredits this false narrative that Romney isn’t doing well.

jaygatz33 on September 10, 2012 at 5:02 PM

The Median Voter Theory, especially in Romney’s case (because he has been accused of skirting the issues to curry political favor), is a loser. Watch today’s Morning Joe. Joe & Halperin have a huge point: Romney needs to take conservative stands.
Plus, abandon ship on the “swing state strategy.” Every candidate that has tried that, has lost. The national conservation bleeds in to the swing states, and will overrun your pinpoint targeted swing state effort. You need to affect that conservation on a national level with your ads. SO, run your ads largely on a national level.

anotherJoe on September 10, 2012 at 4:56 PM

Exactly right.

At the current trajectory, Obama will win re-election handidly.

Romney desperately needs change his entire campaign strategy VERY soon before its too late. He has the money and infrastructure to do so, but apperantly not the will. Time will tell.

Norwegian on September 10, 2012 at 5:02 PM

so if obama’s a lock and has this won, why is he still out there campaigning? (RUSH wants to know and so do I).

gracie on September 10, 2012 at 5:02 PM

I am with you!..:)

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Ha! That Gawdawful Mrs. Obama is now asking her subjects to forgo “just one dinner out” and send that money to her husband. Seriously. First, she wants your wedding and anniversary gifts and now she wants your discretionary spending money. Not only does that speak volumes about Team Obama’s confidence level, but I think FLO and PO really do think they’re King and Queen.

BettyRuth on September 10, 2012 at 5:03 PM

They’re all entirely plausible, but MI/NM/PA are a stretch.

peski on September 10, 2012 at 5:00 PM

The point is the race has expanded and Obama will be forced to spend $ to defend a blue state.

gracie on September 10, 2012 at 5:04 PM

I remember writing last year that voters could end up being convinced that the financial crisis and its fallout were so horrendous that realistically no one could have brought the country back in four years

Yeah, I remember those threads, AP. And it’s not necessarily a crazy theory. But you know who will bend themselves into a pretzel in order to justify Obama’s failures by saying there’s nothing he could’ve done to fix anything? Democrats. People already predisposed to voting for him in the first place.

The people we need to attract are those disillusioned indies and moderates(Republicans who voted for Barry last time are already in Romney’s camp). And they’re not suicidal enough to sign up for 4 more years under the pretense that he just needs a little more time. They need to be wooed delicately, but they’re ripe for the taking.

Doughboy on September 10, 2012 at 5:04 PM

There is one reason and one reason alone why this race is currently close: celebrity.

We’ve become a nation obsessed with celebrity. Obama is one. Romney is one of those square squares.

Nothing else makes sense.

Red Cloud on September 10, 2012 at 4:52 PM

That’s a more concise way of saying what I was trying to say. I think that’s closest to the truth. 2010 shows people’s instincts aren’t totally off. Not everybody loves collectivism yet. But, especially in a Presidential election, people will vote for some really stupid reasons.

One comment was talking about Obama’s photo op capabilities. That’s the stuff I am talking about.

stldave on September 10, 2012 at 5:05 PM

Yeah. Could be we’ve become desensitized to the rotten numbers, or maybe people simply do accept it as the new normal.

That said, he rode in on his white horse promising to heal the economy, even the planet itself. He ought to be bearing more responsibility for the fact the results didn’t match his rhetoric.

changer1701 on September 10, 2012 at 4:51 PM

No, I don’t think we’re desensitized. I think the public fears a loss of the safety net. In bad times that fear is exaggerated. So it’s necessary for conservatives to stop griping about the “takers” vs. the “makers.” That’s unhelpful if you’re out of a job or if you’re a senior just getting by on SS or who need Medicare. We need to argue we’re all about cutting spending to shore up the safety net.

I do agree we need to nail Obama on his empty promises. I like the RNC ad that juxtaposes his ’08 rhetoric with the same old same old he’s dishing out on the stump today. My complaint would be that it’s not airing on tv where most of America still gets its exposure to ads. Let’s see it on tv in every swing state. Romney’s advertizing could be more biting imo. It’s too bland and forgettable. The public already knows the economy’s bad. It needs to focus on other factors–hit back on the Bain smears, emphasize Romney’s credentials as a caring human being.

writeblock on September 10, 2012 at 5:05 PM

Pollsters, schmollsters.

I want to see more Badass Mittens and less Bunny Wabbitt Mittens.

Johnny Mac 2.0 ain’t cuttin’ it.

Bruno Strozek on September 10, 2012 at 5:05 PM

Exactly right.

At the current trajectory, Obama will win re-election handidly.

Romney desperately needs change his entire campaign strategy VERY soon before its too late. He has the money and infrastructure to do so, but apperantly not the will. Time will tell.

Norwegian on September 10, 2012 at 5:02 PM

So even Allah is less Eeyore today, but you continue to climb up on that ledge. I’m getting weary of this insane panicking.Take a deep breath..

sandee on September 10, 2012 at 5:05 PM

At the current trajectory, Obama will win re-election handidly.

Romney desperately needs change his entire campaign strategy VERY soon before its too late. He has the money and infrastructure to do so, but apperantly not the will. Time will tell.

Norwegian on September 10, 2012 at 5:02 PM

No. gonna be close. he’ll work the swing states and win just as he has been doing because it’s working in the swings.

gracie on September 10, 2012 at 5:05 PM

Brit Hume is a serial meme carrier.

faraway on September 10, 2012 at 5:06 PM

Jay Nordlinger at NRO is apparently in eeyore mode as well, but he makes a good point. Namely, that it may be the case that not enough people really want things to turn around:

For some Republicans, it is never the people’s fault. I’ll tell you what I mean: If the Republican nominee loses, it’s always because he ran a lousy campaign. Couldn’t communicate. Made tactical blunders. Etc.

I say, the electorate always has a clear enough choice. Sufficient information. If they opt for the Democrat, and that view of government and society, maybe it’s because they want to.

This year, the electorate has a very clear choice, not least when it comes to economics. We are headed toward disaster. One side, the side heard in Charlotte, won’t even acknowledge the problem. It’s not merely that they don’t propose a solution; they won’t even acknowledge a problem. It’s just ever more free stuff, courtesy of “the rich.” Business, or non-business, as usual.

You can’t force people to save themselves, or their country. If they don’t want to — they don’t want to. In a democracy, people get what they deserve (or at least a majority does).

Erich66 on September 10, 2012 at 5:06 PM

-obama cracks birther joke in some beer place
-obama gets huged by some republican pizza place owner fan in yet another great youtube moment.
..
nathor on September 10, 2012 at 5:00 PM

..oh well, then, I am convinced. I cannot possibly vote for a presidential candidate who does not get hugged by a pizza place owner. And cracking birther jokes is a sure fire way to get elected. Yessirree!

You wanna explain to all of us, genius, why Obama and the press had a fit of the vapors when Romney made a crack about his birth certificate in a Michigan appearance?

FAIL

The War Planner on September 10, 2012 at 5:07 PM

The PPP Poll was weighted strongly in favor of Obama according to this article.

http://theulstermanreport.com/2012/09/10/white-house-insider-ohio-now-turning-to-romney-polling-data-101/

Conservalicious

That article also says Obama’s fundraising is on the decline. Guess what? Obama just had his best month ever, raised $3 million more than Romney and raised more in one month than Romney has ever raised in one month.

That guy spins a good tale, but there is no “White House/Wall Street insider”.

xblade on September 10, 2012 at 5:07 PM

My chief worry here is that Romney’s still betting big that despair over Obamanomics will drive undecideds towards him at the last minute, with the October and November jobs reports potential gamechangers if they’re especially dismal. Could be, but it also could be that the worse the economy looks, paradoxically the more Obama is inoculated from public opinion on it.

There is an antidote to this available. Romney needs to hit up the incompetence factor especially with Woodward’s book being released tonight. There is so much evidence this guy is in over his head.

We can scream ideology but to people who lack any consistent or indeed any ideology, competence is a universal language. Maybe the people who want to believe they voted for this guy was a good thing but so do employers who invest in a new employee. You just can’t overlook they might be the wrong guy for the job regardless.

Sometimes you just have to let them go.

msmveritas on September 10, 2012 at 5:07 PM

If the polls are wrong, someone from the campaign will usually leak some internals to one respected reporter, who will relay the info.

daveyandgoliath on September 10, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Define “respected reporter”, and also give us credible examples of such leaking from previous races.

Del Dolemonte on September 10, 2012 at 5:08 PM

Brit Hume is a serial meme carrier.

faraway on September 10, 2012 at 5:06 PM

ya…sweet man but a beta male…

gracie on September 10, 2012 at 5:08 PM

CNN/ORC Actually Surveyed the DNC This Time Showing Obama +6 Nationally

Today CNN released a poll showing a sizable Obama bounce. We’ve blogged CNN’s biased polls before and this survey has all the hallmarks of a truly unrealistic sampling of America. I made a joke about this previously, but it looks like CNN surveyed the floor of the Democrat Convention for it latest poll. They won’t reveal the party ID of voters but look at how their representative sample views the two parties:
•Democrat Party Favorability +8 at 51 to 43
•Republican Party Favorability – 10 at 42 to 52.

There is a 0% chance America sees the two parties this way and will again deliver an overwhelming majority back to the House and no worse than 50/50 split in the Senate.

Here are my other examples demonstrating the bias in sampling. The first bullet is the most damning:
•Romney has a 14-point lead among Independents (54 to 40) and is down 6 in the poll. If Romney wins Independents by 14 points he wins the election in a blowout
•Obama’s favorability at 57% versus 42% unfavorable. Favorability is different from job approval but he’s never this high
•Obama is +1 on handling the economy 50 to 49. No survey EVER claims this
•Obama is +1 among men 48 to 47. Obama is typically down 6-8 points among men. He was +1 in 2008, not today
•Registered Voter breakdown was Democrat 441 (50.4%), Republican 397 (45.5%) and Independent 37 (4.2%). Registered Independent voters make up 20-25% of the electorate.

Silver linings:
•Even in this hugely biased poll Mitt Romney has a +1 on favorability 48 to 47.
•Romney is +2 with people over 50 on handling medicare 49 to 47

CNN and ORC International continue to show extreme bias in their polling. If the above statistics were representative of today’s electorate Obama would win re-election in a landslide, yet they can only find him with a six-point lead. Thankfully this survey is worth the same as you pay to read this blog: nothing.

http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/09/10/cnnorc-actually-surveyed-the-dnc-this-time-showing-obama-6-nationally/

sentinelrules on September 10, 2012 at 5:08 PM

Two Points
1) Obama and MSM are trying to paint a narrative that Obama is ahead and resistance is futile “pay no attention to that man behind the curtain..I am the great and powerful OZ”. This way the me too crowd will vote for the “winner” and hopes will dampen amongst the Romney supporters. why they cite PPP er I mean SEIU polls.

2) Romney needs to campaign in NJ if Christie won here under a similar type election so will Romney. He should expand to MI, PA, CT and Oregon also

Natebo on September 10, 2012 at 5:09 PM

Rove was just on Hannity and said that he thinks Romney will win IN, NC, FL, VA, NH, WI, IA, CO, NV, and OH – and will possibly win MI, NM, & PA.

JA on September 10, 2012 at 4:46 PM

He is absolutely right but I give Nevada a less chance. As I said many times here it takes 10% of Obama 2008 “White Voters” to switch to Romney in 2012 combined with 3% of his 2008 voters staying home and it is all over for Obama… There is no way that Obama could win the elections with this happening…

Rasmussen poll in August that addressed “White Voters” showed that Obama support among Whites is 35%. In 2008 he got 43% of the White Vote. Therefore his support among “White Voters” dropped by approximately 19%… So assuming that 10% of his 2008 White Voters would switch to Romney is a very probable scenario.. Also the energy gap is much higher on our side per each poll including the biased ones so assuming that 3% of Obama voters from 2008 staying home in 2012 is a very probable scenario…

Also look around you and check if Obama is losing 1 out of 10 of the White Voters you know that voted for him in 2008. Check around for the energy between us and them. You do not need a pollster to see this…

Folks, the math and reality on the ground is very much against Obama no matter what the last few days polls are saying…

mnjg on September 10, 2012 at 5:09 PM

-obama cracks birther joke in some beer place

nathor on September 10, 2012 at 5:00 PM

.
I thought Birther jokes were deemed “racist”??

Whatup with that ?

FlaMurph on September 10, 2012 at 5:09 PM

That’s a more concise way of saying what I was trying to say. I think that’s closest to the truth. 2010 shows people’s instincts aren’t totally off. Not everybody loves collectivism yet. But, especially in a Presidential election, people will vote for some really stupid reasons.

One comment was talking about Obama’s photo op capabilities. That’s the stuff I am talking about.

stldave on September 10, 2012 at 5:05 PM

You guys are the same ones who like to run fake cowboys and ranchers right?

tommyhawk on September 10, 2012 at 5:09 PM

Keep the ice-water coming, Allah. The cheerleaders of One-n-Out need a lot of cooling off.

Limerick on September 10, 2012 at 5:09 PM

Read this. You too Allah

http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2012/09/09/spreading-fear-and-despondency/2/

bluealice on September 10, 2012 at 5:10 PM

Obama got no bounce in swing states. His increase came from states he is expected to win anyway.

reddevil on September 10, 2012 at 5:10 PM

Jay Nordlinger at NRO is apparently in eeyore mode as well, but he makes a good point. Namely, that it may be the case that not enough people really want things to turn around:

For some Republicans, it is never the people’s fault. I’ll tell you what I mean: If the Republican nominee loses, it’s always because he ran a lousy campaign. Couldn’t communicate. Made tactical blunders. Etc.

I say, the electorate always has a clear enough choice. Sufficient information. If they opt for the Democrat, and that view of government and society, maybe it’s because they want to.

This year, the electorate has a very clear choice, not least when it comes to economics. We are headed toward disaster. One side, the side heard in Charlotte, won’t even acknowledge the problem. It’s not merely that they don’t propose a solution; they won’t even acknowledge a problem. It’s just ever more free stuff, courtesy of “the rich.” Business, or non-business, as usual.

You can’t force people to save themselves, or their country. If they don’t want to — they don’t want to. In a democracy, people get what they deserve (or at least a majority does).
Erich66 on September 10, 2012 at 5:06 PM

Here’s where I differ. I think plenty of people are not plugged in enough to understand that getting to keep all your stuff and having someone else pay for it is truly not on the table as a long term option.

They’ll always be inclined to believe it if someone sells it to them, because it is what they want to hear. It puts the onus on us to bust that illusion, and that’s not the easiest task in the world. It can be done, though.

stldave on September 10, 2012 at 5:11 PM

Folks, the math and reality on the ground is very much against Obama no matter what the last few days polls are saying…

mnjg on September 10, 2012 at 5:09 PM

..abbalutely. By the way, your analysis tool is pretty interesting. Thanks for sending it along!

The War Planner on September 10, 2012 at 5:12 PM

They’re looking for reasons to think they made a good decision in voting for him the first time, and “no one could have fixed this economy” fits the bill nicely

Maybe if you are clueless about economic cycles. We should have been out of this recession some time ago using well-founded methods that work. We haven’t because we tried radical solutions which will never cure this economy in any materially beneficial way. We’ve not only kicked the can down the road, it’s been run over by a truck.

Where is Romney’s commercial showing this very simply to Joe Q Public? How massive amounts of government spending, bailouts that defy commons sense and a lack of policy and focus has made things worse.

Four years without a budget? How irresponsible and unprecedented is that in a financial crisis? It should be act 1 for someone seriously committed to a recovery for all Americans.

What about jobs? No continual, top-level focus on jobs has been formulated. We just have a bunch of fairy-tales about jobs saved and new green jobs. Meanwhile this President has the worst jobs record since 1948.

You folks in the Romney campaign need to get off your collective asses. Don’t sit here and tell me why I shouldn’t focus. Show me why.

Marcus Traianus on September 10, 2012 at 5:12 PM

Obama got no bounce in swing states. His increase came from states he is expected to win anyway.

reddevil on September 10, 2012 at 5:10 PM

..is this true? Got links?

(Sincere question.)

The War Planner on September 10, 2012 at 5:13 PM

OT Obama sending $1 T to Muslim Brotherhood for German UBoats to be used in the Suez

What’s next? High speed trains?

faraway on September 10, 2012 at 5:13 PM

“Wait, a month ago they had Obama 52, Romney 45…? Nevermind. I never thought pollsters would twist numbers to create a narrative.”

That was before they changed to likely voters, after that it was +/- 2 Omaha v Romney for 2 polls..

NextGen on September 10, 2012 at 5:13 PM

You folks in the Romney campaign need to get off your collective asses. Don’t sit here and tell me why I shouldn’t focus. Show me why.

Marcus Traianus on September 10, 2012 at 5:12 PM

I hope they scroll far enough down this thread to find this exhilarating piece of insight!

tommyhawk on September 10, 2012 at 5:14 PM

Properly weighted, the Gallup poll actually show Romney with 5-point lead:

http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-five-percent-lead-by-unskewed-gallup-poll-data

blue13326 on September 10, 2012 at 5:16 PM

September 10, 2008, McCain +2.2: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/election_2012_vs_election_2008_four_years_ago_today.html

1980: Sept Nov
Jimmy Carter 41 41
Ronald Reagan 35 50.7
John Anderson 15 6.6

Romney and Ryan are excellent debaters. Even if Mitt doesn’t get mean, at least a couple of the PACs will. The speechifying will wear off.

And Conservatives ARE more fired up. I live in a very liberal part of the country, and Democrats are either arrogantly confident and resting, or discouraged by who they elected and dropping out.

PastorJon on September 10, 2012 at 5:17 PM

Billion. Trillion. Whatever.

faraway on September 10, 2012 at 5:17 PM

Marcus Traianus on September 10, 2012 at 5:12 PM

There ya go! With a record like Barry’s how the frakkin square wheel is is “expected” to win any State? I’ll tell ya how, the American brain on Gov’t lazy. How can anyone not be nervous of the electorate falling in line at the graneries for their dole of wheat?

Limerick on September 10, 2012 at 5:17 PM

Romney’s been careful to frame his attacks on O as disappointment, not anger: As an advisor told Byron York recently, they don’t want to be seen as rubbing disillusioned Obama voters’ faces in their mistake

This is the problem.

His reluctance to persoanlly attack Obama with full force maintains Obama’s likeability edge while making reluctant conservatives question his conservative credentials.

It’s lose-lose.

You win by burying Barky with hard-hitting, personal attack ads. Those “idisllusioned Obama voters” will just stay home if Obama looks like an electoral loser come early November.

Norwegian on September 10, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Yeah, stay mellow, despite the fact that months ago people like Dick Morris were saying by this time Romney would have a huge lead, but it’s the opposite. Just my fear. NO, don’t mellow out. These guys need to get upset bigtime. Because their campaign and ill-advised strategy is failing bigtime. My comment on another thread:

Romney must abandon ship, and quick, with the discredited Median Voter Theory.

The Median Voter Theory, especially in Romney’s case (because he has been accused of skirting the issues to curry political favor), is a loser. Watch today’s Morning Joe. Joe & Halperin have a huge point: Romney needs to take conservative stands.
Plus, abandon ship on the “swing state strategy.” Every candidate that has tried that, has lost. The national conservation bleeds in to the swing states, and will overrun your pinpoint targeted swing state effort. You need to affect that conservation on a national level with your ads. SO, run your ads largely on a national level.

anotherJoe on September 10, 2012 at 4:56 PM

This is is right here! It makes me so frustrated that GOP candidates continue to do the most insane things election after election.

It’s like a tug-of-war battle. You don’t let up on the tension towards your philosophy and your ideology. You’re left with nothing, while the other sides pulls harder and the conversation moves to the left.

The media and Dems convince voters that perfectly upstanding and honorable Republicans are EVIL incarnate. And then Romney approaches the likeable, celebrity, nice-guy Obama and says what?… that he’s a nice guy and that voters shouldn’t feel bad for electing him.

He’s CONFIRMING their assumptions, not changing minds. Same with soft-pedaling conservative issues. If he doesn’t move the country’s mindset to the Right, NO ONE WILL. It’s so excruciatingly obvious, it’s basic psychology. I pull my hair out watching these guys slowly but surely claim defeat from the jaws of victory.

Braveheart on September 10, 2012 at 5:18 PM

there are lots and lots and lots of Republican attack ads to come.

What, Where and WHEN?!

HellCat on September 10, 2012 at 5:18 PM

..oh well, then, I am convinced. I cannot possibly vote for a presidential candidate who does not get hugged by a pizza place owner. And cracking birther jokes is a sure fire way to get elected. Yessirree!

You wanna explain to all of us, genius, why Obama and the press had a fit of the vapors when Romney made a crack about his birth certificate in a Michigan appearance?

FAIL

The War Planner on September 10, 2012 at 5:07 PM

you might see those moments as press hypocrisy or something, but those moments play great in youtube, not with base partisans like you, but with those low information voters still undecided. he is a good personal campaigner.

nathor on September 10, 2012 at 5:18 PM

Memo to eeyores, ABRs & MOBYs:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isW3xvQS8e8&feature=player_embedded

Dark Star on September 10, 2012 at 5:19 PM

there are lots and lots and lots of Republican attack ads to come

Wunderbar! With 45 days of the election cycle to go! Where the holy moly has the RNC been since Jan 09? I’ll tell you where, trying to put reservations on the chair in the middle of the room.

Limerick on September 10, 2012 at 5:21 PM

Relax people. Just wait for Barkey to accidentally tell the truth again about how he loathes America and it’s arrogant, racist, imperialist, colonialist, unfair to people of color, history of raping the world of all it’s resources…trust me, it’ll happen…(“you didn’t build that!!!”)
hopenchange!!!111!!!

Strike Hornet on September 10, 2012 at 5:21 PM

It was even before the DNC convention, then Obama went up by 4 immediately after the convention and no he’s up by 6. There’s something very fishy going on and I suspect it’s creative statistics on the part of the Democrats. Media polls are mathematical garbage and are designed to influence, not to inform.

rplat on September 10, 2012 at 5:22 PM

Let me submit into evidence the following:
1) Nov 2010 midterms results
2) WI Gov. recall results
3) Republican enthusiasm gap margin
4) 2-1 cash on hand margin
5) Cont’d neg. polling on Obamatax
6) Swing recently that is pro-Mitt in NC and FL
7) The Peter Party DNC, denying GOD 3x
8) 8+% UE
…………………………………….LANDSLIDE.

hillsoftx on September 10, 2012 at 5:22 PM

Here’s where I differ. I think plenty of people are not plugged in enough to understand that getting to keep all your stuff and having someone else pay for it is truly not on the table as a long term option.

They’ll always be inclined to believe it if someone sells it to them, because it is what they want to hear. It puts the onus on us to bust that illusion, and that’s not the easiest task in the world. It can be done, though.

stldave on September 10, 2012 at 5:11 PM

True, but how do you bust the illusion if they aren’t paying attention and don’t care to listen? That was Nordlinger’s point. I think too many people have bought into the meme that mediocrity is now the norm and there’s little anyone can do about it. That’s why Clinton’s speech was apparently so effective (and also such a disservice to the country). If our future is one of misery, might as well grab as much free stuff while you can. It sucks that this may be the prevailing wisdom, but for some unGodly reason, it seems to be selling every bit as much as hope ‘n’ change.

Erich66 on September 10, 2012 at 5:23 PM

TEAM ROMNEY: Chillax, we’ve got this.

ME: You’ve been saying that for 6 months and have never led by more than a few points in a major poll.

At some point, you just have to admit you’re not getting it done.

newtopia on September 10, 2012 at 5:23 PM

you might see those moments as press hypocrisy or something, but those moments play great in youtube, not with base partisans like you, but with those low information voters still undecided. he is a good personal campaigner.

nathor on September 10, 2012 at 5:18 PM

Really think the bear hug wasn’t staged? Lucky to find this pizza owner that just happens to be a Republican who is going to vote for Obama and get picked up without the SS taking the guy out. Riiight.Oh if you think people on youtube aren’t laughing at how small Obama looks here you’re wrong..

sandee on September 10, 2012 at 5:24 PM

“But if the sort of bad economic news we got last week isn’t enough to shake wavering voters into backing Romney, then it’s difficult to imagine what will.” Jonathan Tobin @ Commentary mag blog

Romney=Dewey (1948)

wraithby on September 10, 2012 at 5:24 PM

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