CNN poll: Obama 52, Romney 46 among likely voters

posted at 6:01 pm on September 10, 2012 by Allahpundit

The race was even among likelies in CNN’s poll after the GOP convention, so here’s further confirmation that O has indeed gotten a bounce. (Of particular note, his favorable rating rose to 57 percent, his highest in two years.) Three major caveats, though. One: While there’s a nice bounce among likely voters, there’s virtually no bounce among registereds. Last week O led Romney by seven points among that group; this week he leads by eight. Obviously the composition of CNN’s sample of likely voters has changed, although because they never publish their partisan splits, there’s no way to tell by how much exactly.

Speaking of which, number two: Romney trails overall by six points while leading among independents … by 14?

The only way to make those numbers make sense is if the sample of likely voters skews sharply Democratic, which seems improbable, and if the sample of independents here is minuscule. That wouldn’t be unusual for CNN, if so: Just like last week, it looks like they’re pressing hard to get self-identified indies to identify themselves as leaners one way or the other and then reserving the indie column for the few remaining “true independents.” With a small enough sample, Romney could theoretically lead O by 50 points among this group and still trail overall.

Three: There sure does seem to be a pronounced age split in this poll:

That’s right in line with conventional wisdom — O leads big among younger voters, Romney leads among older — but note that it’s not young adult who are really driving Obama’s advantage here. It’s the middle-aged, ages 35 to 49, that are decisive to his overall margin. Not sure how to explain that dramatic effect. It’s always tempting to resort to Medicare politics to account for sharp age disparities but it’s not obvious to me why near-seniors would be fairly evenly split while slightly younger voters would tilt sharply. Maybe the Democrats’ culture-war convention played well with them? But middle-aged adults tend to be pro-life on balance. Hmmm.

Lots of oddness to O’s bounciness, then — although, bearing that in mind, I still don’t like the look of this trend, especially in light of the last post:

This one strikes me as bad too, although there’s nothing surprising about it:

Romney’s been banking since day one on winning an “Obama vs. Not Obama” election, but it’s easier to imagine a race like that ending in a semi-landslide for the challenger than in a narrow victory, which increasingly appears to be Mitt’s best-case scenario. The “Not Obama” voters in Mitt’s column will be out in force no matter what, whereas O’s support among pro-Obama voters depends, I think, to some extent on how the polls look down the stretch. If it’s close, he has a stronger pitch to “unlikely voters” who like him to haul their asses down to the polling place on election day and put him over the top then he does if the race looks like a lost cause circa mid-October. But then, this is really just another way of saying that Romney needs to do more to make the pro-Romney case among undecideds rather than just the anti-Obama case, which is already as clear cut as can be. That’s what the convention was supposed to be about, and per the trendlines here, evidently it did some good. Enough good, though?


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2 3 4

You’re just saying that to avoid getting b1tch-slapped by your brownshirt masters again.
ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:22 PM

Huh, nutball? Is your delirium getting the best of you, again?

Care to show where one of you idiots slapped me around?

cozmo on September 10, 2012 at 7:26 PM

Flora Duh on September 10, 2012 at 7:23 PM

Good point!..:)

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 7:26 PM

..You nailed it. But NOTHING’s that simple to a mentally-retarded German Shepard like Dr Rin Tin Tin. He’d rather be humping Sgt Biff O’Hara’s leg.

The War Planner on September 10, 2012 at 7:25 PM

He nailed nothing. It’s just the usual squish mentality trying to do the same thing over and over and over and expecting a different outcome.

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:27 PM

Care to show where one of you idiots slapped me around?

cozmo on September 10, 2012 at 7:26 PM

I was hoping you were going to respond!!..:)

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 7:27 PM

Democrats underestimate that even the most devoted Republican political junkie can remain depressed for the next 57 days. Won’t make a bit of difference as long as you cast your vote on Nov. 6th. What better way to rub their face in it?

Democrats also underestimate their own voters dragging their asses out of bed to go vote for the guy who is a shoo-in, per MSNBC et al. Why make the effort if he’s got it wrapped up?

Once again, the democrats hedge their bets to their own peril.

sherry on September 10, 2012 at 7:27 PM

Thank you Mr.X and Steve Z for some level headedness. Please forward your spreadsheet to Allah et al so they can see for themselves.

You have to wonder why in the world pollsters would so greatly oversample Democrats and undersample Republicans and Indies….things that make you go hmmmm?

Mitsouko on September 10, 2012 at 7:28 PM

Let’s try with the 2008 D/R/I of 39/32/29, still a +7D advantage.

R: 47.5%
O: 50%

With an even split, 33/33/34, it’s

R: 51%
O: 46%

So what CNN is saying is that their numbers actually stayed IDENTICAL, but that they think the enthusiasm is up for Democrats and that they will come out 10% more than Republicans. It’s ridiculous. This has never happened. If R’s have reached parity with D’s, it’s gonna be a landslide for Romney.

MrX on September 10, 2012 at 7:28 PM

I was hoping you were going to respond!!..:)

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 7:27 PM

Sneaking in during family movie time. Thankfully my family isn’t destroyed.

cozmo on September 10, 2012 at 7:29 PM

Huh, nutball? Is your delirium getting the best of you, again?

Care to show where one of you idiots slapped me around?

cozmo on September 10, 2012 at 7:26 PM

I don’t remember the exact occasion, but there was definitely a moment when some of the Mittler Youth forgot what a jailhouse punk you are for their side and gave you a good roughing-up.

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:29 PM

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:27 PM

Cuda!!!..:)

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 7:29 PM

MrX on September 10, 2012 at 6:30 PM

btw…i remember reading a long time ago, don’t pay attention to polls that don’t give you the internals like d/r/i

obviously, the left thinks this is fun…ppp, cnn and hack ‘news’ people luving them barry all day long. voter suppression…of Rs

but, it could have the reverse effect…let’s all go to madison WI and put out flyers that barry is ahead in WI by 10 points.

r keller on September 10, 2012 at 7:29 PM

Cuda!!!..:)

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 7:29 PM

+ 1,000,000!

Lanceman on September 10, 2012 at 7:30 PM

Remember how we’re always told the independents are the ones that decide elections? The indies are the ones to watch in these polls.

iceman1960 on September 10, 2012 at 7:30 PM

176? There you have it – we elected Ichabod Crane.

Lanceman on September 10, 2012 at 7:26 PM

..if you check the comments, Lance, you will see that this will be the new SQUIRREL! We will be spending 3-4 days on whether this clown will have his pizza place boycotted by us terrible, hating Republicans.

Back story: the guy is in the tank big time for Obama; he visited the WH in July and were this into a stunt, the SS would have put a few rounds through this guy if they didn’t know what’ was up.

The War Planner on September 10, 2012 at 7:30 PM

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:29 PM

You get one everytime you show up!!..:)

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 7:30 PM

I don’t remember the exact occasion, but there was definitely a moment when some of the Mittler Youth forgot what a jailhouse punk you are for their side and gave you a good roughing-up.

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:29 PM

Don’t you get tired of spewing the same old garbage? And please knock it off with your “Hitler” references, that what Democrat’s do. Oh wait……..

JPeterman on September 10, 2012 at 7:31 PM

don’t care ’bout national. think swing. that’s all that matters.

gracie on September 10, 2012 at 7:31 PM

cozmo on September 10, 2012 at 7:29 PM

LoLz!!..I hear you!..:)

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 7:31 PM

So what CNN is saying is that their numbers actually stayed IDENTICAL, but that they think the enthusiasm is up for Democrats and that they will come out 10% more than Republicans. It’s ridiculous. This has never happened. If R’s have reached parity with D’s, it’s gonna be a landslide for Romney.

MrX on September 10, 2012 at 7:28 PM

The problem with that analysis is that Romney seems to be doing not so good in most polls lately, not just CNN.

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:31 PM

Media is liberal and they are worried for their Hero- very worried.
So what would be good way to psychologically give our side a boost and deflate the GOP and sow dissent in their ranks? If you said rigged polling, you win a cookie.

jjshaka on September 10, 2012 at 6:31 PM

Yep, and

I’m sure the Mr. Limbaugh warned us of this back in, oh, April or so.

SouthernGent on September 10, 2012 at 6:32 PM

yep.

I don’t believe any of these damn polls. Taking it as a given that the MSM is going to lie and does lie, why would anyone think pollsters wouldn’t either? The pollsters and MSM are trying their damnedest to keep the narrative going any way they can, so please, everyone, quit expecting them to not do it. Just write them off as the treasonous liars they are and work to get Mitt in the White House.

Professor Jacobson makes some excellent points here. Let us be motivated even more.

PatriotGal2257 on September 10, 2012 at 7:31 PM

Let’s face it……we didn’t have good options this year. Romney is the best we had. I was a Newt supporter at first but he had NO campaign apparatus.

terryannonline on September 10, 2012 at 7:24 PM

And in the general election I would have voted for ANY of our candidates over Obama, no matter who I would have prefered. Just like 2008, Romney was not my first choice either. But no matter how I feel and no matter what regrets I may have, it would never occur to me to stay home to teach those GOP squishes a good lesson, by leaving the nation to Obama’s devices and desires.

clnurnberg on September 10, 2012 at 7:32 PM

I don’t remember the exact occasion,
ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:29 PM

Figured as much, makin’ crap up again. Taking on the Romney fluffers is almost as easy as you ABR nutballs.

They just ain’t as dumb as y’all.

cozmo on September 10, 2012 at 7:32 PM

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:24 PM

See you’re just trolling. Romney is far better than what is running the WH now.

AT THIS POINT….Your incessant bashing of Romney’s lack of “true conservative” credentials is either A) self serving attention hogging or B) you are fighting hard for Romney’s demise….

Either one is sad and pathetic.

DLEW on September 10, 2012 at 7:32 PM

Don’t you get tired of spewing the same old garbage? And please knock it off with your “Hitler” references, that what Democrat’s do. Oh wait……..

JPeterman on September 10, 2012 at 7:31 PM

You have a point!!..A good one!..:)

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 7:32 PM

Don’t you get tired of spewing the same old garbage? And please knock it off with your “Hitler” references, that what Democrat’s do. Oh wait……..

JPeterman on September 10, 2012 at 7:31 PM

Really? Find a place where I’ve pimped a squish or advocated ANY left/liberal policies…or tried to rationalize them away. Come on, put up or shut up.

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:33 PM

On lazy nights, I go to my favorite frozen dinner:

Boston Market Meatloaf and Mashed Potatoes with Brown Gravy.

YUMMY.
I never feel let down when I eat this dinner!

Tonight’s fixin’s…leftover Chicken and Shrimp Tempura with another leftover from another night, Eggplant in Vindaloo Curry Sauce and Garlic Mashed Potatoes from yet another night. I made everything. Love cooking!

Typicalwhitewoman on September 10, 2012 at 7:33 PM

JPeterman on September 10, 2012 at 7:31 PM

Yeah, he should just vote for Obama already. Maybe he’d feel good & purposeful then.

22044 on September 10, 2012 at 7:33 PM

Back story: the guy is in the tank big time for Obama; he visited the WH in July and were this into a stunt, the SS would have put a few rounds through this guy if they didn’t know what’ was up.

The War Planner on September 10, 2012 at 7:30 PM

Yeah. He is a Republican. Just like those two b!tches on that video.

Lanceman on September 10, 2012 at 7:33 PM

I just LOVE the Mittler Youth with their calling anyone who objects to Romney’s squishiness an O-bot or a Democrat or a liberal. Another bit of hilarity.

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:34 PM

And in the general election I would have voted for ANY of our candidates over Obama, no matter who I would have prefered. Just like 2008, Romney was not my first choice either. But no matter how I feel and no matter what regrets I may have, it would never occur to me to stay home to teach those GOP squishes a good lesson, by leaving the nation to Obama’s devices and desires.

clnurnberg on September 10, 2012 at 7:32 PM

This.

DLEW on September 10, 2012 at 7:34 PM

Come on, put up or shut up.

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:33 PM

Tryin’ to draw a specific from a generalization. You are dumber than I thought if you thought that would score any points.

cozmo on September 10, 2012 at 7:35 PM

ddrintintin is right. Mittens is a squish.

Still better than obaka, though.

JK on the rintintin. It is kinda funny.

Lanceman on September 10, 2012 at 7:36 PM

If all the disenchanted Hillary voters stayed home, we’d have President McCain. I’m not a big donk lover, but we should really try to emulate this little quality they have of not running their candidate into the ground and acting like the worst of the other side.

clnurnberg on September 10, 2012 at 7:36 PM

Exciting news…

I heard that one of the NFL teams playing tonight is planning a political statement in support of Romney. Watch for a punt on first down.

Mr. Wednesday Night on September 10, 2012 at 7:36 PM

Tryin’ to draw a specific from a generalization. You are dumber than I thought if you thought that would score any points.

cozmo on September 10, 2012 at 7:35 PM

In other words, you want to say I’m a liberal O-bot in general, but can’t pull any specifics outta yer ass at the moment.

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:36 PM

Tonight’s fixin’s…leftover Chicken and Shrimp Tempura with another leftover from another night, Eggplant in Vindaloo Curry Sauce and Garlic Mashed Potatoes from yet another night. I made everything. Love cooking!

Typicalwhitewoman on September 10, 2012 at 7:33 PM

MMMMmmmmmm … all of it sounds delicious!

PatriotGal2257 on September 10, 2012 at 7:36 PM

The fact that you’re cheering on an Obama victory, is pathetic.

wargamer6 on September 10, 2012 at 6:35 PM

You obviously didn’t read before posting. IF Obama wins, the TEA Partiers will take over. I agree with him. After all, IF Obama wins, it will confirm how out of touch the GOP is. That means, either take it over and kick the moderates out of leadership, or forming a third-party and gutting the GOP. Right now, IF Obama wins… I’d be happy with either.

dominigan on September 10, 2012 at 7:37 PM

So Ddrintin, the problem with the Cnn poll is that other polls agree? Yes, I’d say they all have the same problem oversampling Dems. Or do you disagree with Mr. X’s breakdown? Please show your work. Thanks.

Mitsouko on September 10, 2012 at 7:37 PM

Source: CNN/ORC International
Date conducted: 9/7/2012 – 9/9/2012
Sample: 875 interviews among registered voters
Margin of error: +/- 3.5% pts

How does this post refer to Likely voters at CNN/ORC when they interviewed 875 REGISTERED voters?

Would this be internals that I can’t see?

Fleuries on September 10, 2012 at 7:38 PM

I just LOVE the Mittler Youth with their calling anyone who objects to Romney’s squishiness an O-bot or a Democrat or a liberal. Another bit of hilarity.

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:34 PM

One more time, knock it off with the Hitler references.

JPeterman on September 10, 2012 at 7:38 PM

Just like 2008, Romney was not my first choice either. But no matter how I feel and no matter what regrets I may have, it would never occur to me to stay home to teach those GOP squishes a good lesson, by leaving the nation to Obama’s devices and desires.

clnurnberg on September 10, 2012 at 7:32 PM

LOL, that’s the way it will always be. The GOPe could run Henry Waxman as their candidate, and at least he wouldn’t be as bad as Obama or whatever other commie.

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:40 PM

You are dumber than I thought…

cozmo on September 10, 2012 at 7:35 PM

With that one, the sky’s the limit….

jimver on September 10, 2012 at 7:40 PM

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:36 PM

You come on here and call people names and engage in ad hominem. That’s what liberals and losers do.

“Put up or shut up” ?! You’re 14 years old.

22044 on September 10, 2012 at 7:40 PM

I just LOVE the Mittler Youth with their calling anyone who objects to Romney’s squishiness an O-bot or a Democrat or a liberal. Another bit of hilarity.

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:34 PM

One more time, knock it off with the Hitler references.

JPeterman on September 10, 2012 at 7:38 PM

Or else…what? Whiner.

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:40 PM

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:36 PM

Cuda!!!..:)

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 7:41 PM

Well! No one ever called me an o-bot. ]

Bushbot, yes. Reaganite, yes. ‘Nista? boy howdy! o-bot? no freakin’ way. I’d sooner vote for that basketball dude that ran against Owlgore.

Lanceman on September 10, 2012 at 7:41 PM

Put up or shut up” ?! You’re 14 years old.

22044 on September 10, 2012 at 7:40 PM

Another one with no evidence.

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:41 PM

Cuda!!!..:)

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 7:41 PM

Wait. Are you makin’ funna him?

Lanceman on September 10, 2012 at 7:42 PM

Boy, the ‘bots are pissy these days. This place is literally going to be a madhouse on November 6.

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:42 PM

If you answer the polls now, and your candidates are not on the ballot, it is going to be simpler to just say that you are voting for Romney and not get drawn into your caveats and voting against Obama, just tell the pollster you want Romney, because they are interpreting that you are not coming out to vote because you want, Gingrich, Santorum or Ron Paul. They also want to make a big deal about liking Romney like he is your boyfriend, you can’t just like him as president, or admire him, or think he is a neato CEO, you have to really like him, like we want to go out, right?

Think popularity contest, high school, high school class elections, not something serious like saving the country.

Fleuries on September 10, 2012 at 7:42 PM

Another one with no evidence.

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:41 PM

Wrong bub. Guilty as charged. :D

22044 on September 10, 2012 at 7:43 PM

Or else…what? Whiner.

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:40 PM

There are folks who post on this blog who lost family and friends in the death camps.

Keep it up loser.

JPeterman on September 10, 2012 at 7:43 PM

I just LOVE the Mittler Youth with their calling anyone who objects to Romney’s squishiness an O-bot or a Democrat or a liberal. Another bit of hilarity.

actually the only thing we object to is giving us baloney when the race is between Mitt and Obama.

Mitt has won the primary. He is the nominee-whether you like it or not.

If you don’t vote for Romney then vote Obama.

gerrym51 on September 10, 2012 at 7:44 PM

The fact that you’re cheering on an Obama victory, is pathetic.

wargamer6 on September 10, 2012 at 6:35 PM

You obviously didn’t read before posting. IF Obama wins, the TEA Partiers will take over. I agree with him. After all, IF Obama wins, it will confirm how out of touch the GOP is. That means, either take it over and kick the moderates out of leadership, or forming a third-party and gutting the GOP. Right now, IF Obama wins… I’d be happy with either.

dominigan on September 10, 2012 at 7:37 PM

Sheeesh, when was the last tim you looked at any demographic trends, genius??…

jimver on September 10, 2012 at 7:44 PM

In other words, you want to say I’m a liberal O-bot…
ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:36 PM

Nothing of the sort. What we are sayin’ is that you are an ABR batcrap crazy nutball idiot allied with 0bama in your goofy hatred of Romney.

At least that is what I am sayin’.

cozmo on September 10, 2012 at 7:44 PM

Another one with no evidence.

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:41 PM

Wrong bub. Guilty as charged. :D

22044 on September 10, 2012 at 7:43 PM

Oh, so you DO have evidence of my habit of defending liberal pols and policies. Let’s see it.

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:44 PM

You obviously didn’t read before posting. IF Obama wins, the TEA Partiers will take over. I agree with him. After all, IF Obama wins, it will confirm how out of touch the GOP is. That means, either take it over and kick the moderates out of leadership, or forming a third-party and gutting the GOP. Right now, IF Obama wins… I’d be happy with either.

The logic here is so flawed i don’t know where to start…..after four more years of Obama enlarging and reinforcing a constituency of dependency….there will be no one left to buy into Tea Party philosophy. Those that do will be a minority.

DLEW on September 10, 2012 at 7:44 PM

Buck up or shut the puck up, Eeyores. If you didn’t see a blitz of BS polls meant to capture a convention bounce the moment they were trying to minimize Romney’s convention bounce, pack it in. Politics ain’t your thing. Relax and get you some absinthe and champagne. Perfectly legal, delish, and the buzz might give you some perspective. A good part of the convention bounce is consolidating the base behind the candidate. Who gives a flying damn if 0bama wins California by a little or a lot? Relax, we still have the independents.
And those who think a Romney loss this year will mean a chance for Sarah or whoever, a Donk win in 2012 will validate tactics like voter fraud, amnesty, and dead people voting. Not even Palin can win against that, no matter how much the people get torqued off. This could be one-man-one-vote-one-time territory, and there would be no savior on a white polar bear. If you want to bag on Romney, how about doing it when he’s in the White House?

Sekhmet on September 10, 2012 at 7:44 PM

ddrintn is entering the angryed zone.

22044 on September 10, 2012 at 7:44 PM

Would this be internals that I can’t see?

Fleuries on September 10, 2012 at 7:38 PM

..check back up thread for MrX’s calculations.

The War Planner on September 10, 2012 at 7:45 PM

Ahh, screw this. I can go anywhere and be ignored.

Lanceman on September 10, 2012 at 7:45 PM

One more time, knock it off with the Hitler references.

JPeterman on September 10, 2012 at 7:38 PM

When nothing is all you have…go with Hitler.

cozmo on September 10, 2012 at 7:45 PM

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:44 PM

Like a liberal – you deflect from what is pointed out. You’re proving my point.

22044 on September 10, 2012 at 7:45 PM

Nothing of the sort. What we are sayin’ is that you are an ABR batcrap crazy nutball idiot allied with 0bama in your goofy hatred of Romney.

At least that is what I am sayin’.

cozmo on September 10, 2012 at 7:44 PM

Saying Romney’s a squish and he will lst isn’t Romney-hatred. It’s just being a realist. But ooooooh, hit that bong again and dream of a Mitt-slide!!!!

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:46 PM

ddrintn is entering the angryed zone.

22044 on September 10, 2012 at 7:44 PM

I love both them guys!!

Redgill on the other hand…

Lanceman on September 10, 2012 at 7:46 PM

Boy, the ‘bots are pissy these days. This place is literally going to be a madhouse on November 6.

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:42 PM

They can dish it out, but can’t take it.

They forget how disgusting they were during the primaries.

Suddenly they have standards?

portlandon on September 10, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Or else…what? Whiner.

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:40 PM

why risk it for Hilter’s sake, fool?

gracie on September 10, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Or else…what? Whiner.

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:40 PM

We will take even more glee (if that is possible) in your idiotic rambling rants.

cozmo on September 10, 2012 at 7:47 PM

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:44 PM

Like a liberal – you deflect from what is pointed out. You’re proving my point.

22044 on September 10, 2012 at 7:45 PM

Deflecting? I was called an Obama supporter. I asked where it was that I ever voiced support for any liberal pol or policy. Nothing yet.

Projection. That’s the squishy-lefty Mittbot way.

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Why are we upset over this?

We know that this far out, they aren’t that far apart.. we know that in 1980.. before the debates Carter led Reagan by 9 points..

Sure there’s work to be done.. but Mitt only now has the abolity to spend big to counter Obama’s attacks.. the ads are going to shake things up.. and really.. I can name the folks I know who cared, both sides about the conventions on the fingers of both hands.. People do not focus till they are forced to.

Obama is finding his likeability dropping..

Mitt is HARD to demonize..

and the economy still sucks..

The dems can’t spin folks into not seeing how much they are hurting..

and really…

When a democrat at their convention can stand up and say with a straight face.. “Romney and Ryan want to bring back the days of Jim Crowe” and NOT be considered a complete retard.. the indies won’t buy that.. no one will but the most zero/low rent low IQ member of their base..

Come on.. Mitt is running against the Warner Brother’s Coyote.. There isn’t a rock slab across the country he and Biden haven’t slammed their faces into.

mark81150 on September 10, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Lanceman on September 10, 2012 at 7:46 PM

LOL!
Gotta go offline to make an appointment soon. Have fun with him.

22044 on September 10, 2012 at 7:48 PM

You guys argue. I’ll busy myself by sorting these brazzieres…

Lanceman on September 10, 2012 at 7:48 PM

They can dish it out, but can’t take it.

They forget how disgusting they were during the primaries.

Suddenly they have standards?

portlandon on September 10, 2012 at 7:47 PM

I knowwwwww….but it’s fun. It’s like poking at rats in a cage.

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:48 PM

Be aware. Some folk’s continued arguments on here are to contort and change the original purpose of the thread. Why do we oblige and respond……Remember, people in their underwear in moms basement can do this forever….At least until the timer on the microwave goes off letting them knw their Hot Pockets ready.

DLEW on September 10, 2012 at 7:50 PM

ddrintn is entering the angryed zone.

22044 on September 10, 2012 at 7:44 PM

This one is in a perpetual meltdown state…second nature for him..

jimver on September 10, 2012 at 7:51 PM

I was called an Obama supporter.

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Hey guess what, you are, you stupid nutball.

For the ignorant; what we have here is a binary decision tree. If you don’t support one, you support the other by omission.

cozmo on September 10, 2012 at 7:51 PM

They forget how disgusting they were during the primaries.

I prefer the word “snotty”. However Mitt is the nominee-get over it.

You have 5 choices.

vote Mitt
vote Obama
vote third party
don’t vote
Move to Cuba.

gerrym51 on September 10, 2012 at 7:51 PM

Sekhmet on September 10, 2012 at 7:44 PM

Fantastic! Well said.

This must have been a no-brainer in the Obama camp. No acorn? No excitement among young people? No 100,000 + crowds? No record? Let’s turn it on the Republicans and crush their spirits. It’s a well-timed effort and seems to have been coordinated at a crucial moment.

The only thing we get to do is rub it in their face on Nov. 6th. And it will be fun.

sherry on September 10, 2012 at 7:52 PM

Laura Ingraham is one of Mitt’s biggest supporters, and even she is calling the Mitt Campaign out for being the wussies they are:

Laura Ingraham to GOP: ‘If you can’t beat Barack Obama… shut down the party’

“On her Monday program, conservative radio host Laura Ingraham ripped into Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney’s campaign for its lackluster performance, citing unfavorable polling data showing Romney trailing President Barack Obama, despite the bad economy and high unemployment numbers.

Given that the economy is bad, Ingraham argued Romney should be shoo-in and blamed the Republican Party’s leadership for that not being the case.

“If you can’t beat Barack Obama with this record, then shut down the party,” Ingraham said. “Shut it down, start new, with new people because this is a give-me election, or at least it should be. And the millions of dollars — I keep going back to the million and millions and millions of dollars that are paid to these political consultants election after election. We hire people who have lost previous campaigns, that run campaigns that have failed, who have message campaigns where the message fell flat — and they keep getting rehired. I don’t understand that. I don’t know why those are the people you hire.”

portlandon on September 10, 2012 at 7:54 PM

JPeterman on September 10, 2012 at 7:38 PM

You are right!..ddrintn has an affection for Hitler..That is sad!..:(

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 7:54 PM

Ddrintn cannot follow math (see MrX above) or logic.

Mitsouko on September 10, 2012 at 7:56 PM

Sieg heil.

Lanceman on September 10, 2012 at 7:57 PM

The problem with that analysis is that Romney seems to be doing not so good in most polls lately, not just CNN.

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:31 PM

Have you seen those polls? As I said earlier, there was a PPP poll that had 47% Dem split and 4% Independents. Now, if you’re saying that all pollsters are doing this, then yeah, it’s worrying. They do it every year against everyone they don’t like.

I like to look at Independent split because after that it means how much of your own base do you need to get to the polls to achive parity + 1?

So assuming Independents at 30% (you can try other numbers if you’d like), how much of Romney’s own base of Republicans does he need to bring to the polls?

The answer is the following for each of Obama and Romney. With this split, they will each have 50% of the final vote.

Republicans: 33%
Democrats: 37%

So with the current Independents going as they are, Democrats need to get 4% more people of their own party to the polls than Republicans.

A D/R/I split of 37/33/30 is parity. How about 20 Ind. like the CNN poll? It’d be 42/38/20. Dems still need to get 4% more people than Republicans to the polls.

This is what Romney is seeing. This is why he’s saying it’s tight. Most previous election had Dem turnout up by around 4%. Romney’s not taking any chances. Like I said, if D/R split is actually even on voting day, it’s a blowout. Romney wins in a landslide. Now, what pollster is going to advertise a blowout for Romney when all they have to do is use 2008 numbers or worse to show Romney losing and depress the turnout?

This is all about turnout. Obama already knows he’s lost the first phase of the election (independents). When you hear in the news that it’s all about turnout, they are correct. They know that Obama needs 2008 level turnout to win if Ind. keep going for Romney.

MrX on September 10, 2012 at 7:58 PM

Ddrintn cannot follow math…

Mitsouko on September 10, 2012 at 7:56 PM

ddrintn only has the mental capacity to regurgitate ABR nutball talking points.

cozmo on September 10, 2012 at 7:59 PM

We hire people who have lost previous campaigns, that run campaigns that have failed, who have message campaigns where the message fell flat — and they keep getting rehired. I don’t understand that. I don’t know why those are the people you hire.”

portlandon on September 10, 2012 at 7:54 PM

Now you see why I won’t give dime one to Romney or the Rethuglican Nat’l Committee.

I will vote for Rmoney and put up a sign and sticker, but that’s about it.

Lanceman on September 10, 2012 at 7:59 PM

You are right!..ddrintn has an affection for Hitler..That is sad!..:(

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 7:54 PM

..waddya expect from a GERMAN SHEPARD?

The War Planner on September 10, 2012 at 8:00 PM

I was called an Obama supporter.

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Hey guess what, you are, you stupid nutball.

For the ignorant; what we have here is a binary decision tree. If you don’t support one, you support the other by omission.

cozmo on September 10, 2012 at 7:51 PM

Guess who’s frantically looking up ‘binary decision tree’ :) …last time he was here he thought ‘cogent’ was a big word :)…so, don’t discombobulate him :)…

jimver on September 10, 2012 at 8:00 PM

MrX on September 10, 2012 at 7:58 PM

..as I said, I admire your common sense analysis. But can you confirm your assumption of D+R+I = 100%?

(Not being sarcastic; genuinely curious.)

The War Planner on September 10, 2012 at 8:03 PM

But can you confirm your assumption of D+R+I = 100%?

(Not being sarcastic; genuinely curious.)

The War Planner on September 10, 2012 at 8:03 PM

Unless CNN is polling a fourth group in their poll and not telling us anything about it that has to be true. Anyone not D or R is automatically I.

farsighted on September 10, 2012 at 8:08 PM

How does this post refer to Likely voters at CNN/ORC when they interviewed 875 REGISTERED voters?

Would this be internals that I can’t see?

Fleuries on September 10, 2012 at 7:38 PM

This is how it worked: CNN/ORC called up 1022 adults. They throw out those who are not registered to vote, and leaving 875 people who were registered to vote. Upon asking a number of follow up question, they pick out the one the pollsters think will actually vote, that was where the 509 LV came from. The trick is, how do they actually determine those are one likely to vote, they use questions like find did they voted in the past, do they know current events etc. This is where a fudge factor can be introduced.

bayview on September 10, 2012 at 8:09 PM

This is how it worked: CNN/ORC called up 1022 adults. They throw out those who are not registered to vote, and leaving 875 people who were registered to vote. Upon asking a number of follow up question, they pick out the one the pollsters think will actually vote, that was where the 5709 LV came from. The trick is, how do they actually determine those are one likely to vote, they use questions like find did they voted in the past, do they know current events etc. This is where a fudge factor can be introduced.

bayview on September 10, 2012 at 8:09 PM

bayview on September 10, 2012 at 8:09 PM

Does anyone believe that after 4 years Obama at 52% is AS HIGH as when he was elected at the height of Hope and Change? Nobody is doubting the guy now? Everybody still on board? They did this poll because THEY COULD after the convention get away with a ridiculous bounce that they don’t ever have to explain or prove.

Conan on September 10, 2012 at 8:11 PM

Allah is doing his effeminate happy dance.

The Notorious G.O.P on September 10, 2012 at 8:16 PM

Unless CNN is polling a fourth group in their poll and not telling us anything about it that has to be true. Anyone not D or R is automatically I.

farsighted on September 10, 2012 at 8:08 PM

..I thought so; thanks! I was doing “drive-bys” at work with this thread (shhhhh!) and did not read the innards of the poll. I am saving MrX’s analysis for Miller Time tonight. (It’s a hobby.) Of course, MrX’s matrix just gets enlarged by all of the groups in the poll to determine the components of the “universe”.

There are a couple of others in this thread who own to spreadsheets or algorithms to extract the bravo sierra from the MSM machinations. They ought to get together with mnjg who has produced a righteous analysis tool and who will send it to you if you give him a PM.

Rinty and the rest of the trolls might be having fun now, but this worm will turn and I believe they will be hurt puppies on 6 November.

The War Planner on September 10, 2012 at 8:21 PM

The War Planner on September 10, 2012 at 8:00 PM

LoLz..:)

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 8:25 PM

The War Planner on September 10, 2012 at 8:21 PM

I’ve learned a lot here about analyzing polls in the past several months.

I always suspected many were deliberately slanted, but I didn’t know how they did it. Now I know better.

And once I knew polls like this became laughable.

The only question is whether or not such polls actually influence votes and voter turnout. I don’t know the answer to that, but anyone who votes based on polls is a fool easily swayed either way day to day.

And what can you say about someone who doesn’t bother to get out and vote because his guy is down a few percent in some polls? Would he go out and vote if his guy was up a few per cent?

farsighted on September 10, 2012 at 8:34 PM

Comment pages: 1 2 3 4