CNN poll: Obama 52, Romney 46 among likely voters

posted at 6:01 pm on September 10, 2012 by Allahpundit

The race was even among likelies in CNN’s poll after the GOP convention, so here’s further confirmation that O has indeed gotten a bounce. (Of particular note, his favorable rating rose to 57 percent, his highest in two years.) Three major caveats, though. One: While there’s a nice bounce among likely voters, there’s virtually no bounce among registereds. Last week O led Romney by seven points among that group; this week he leads by eight. Obviously the composition of CNN’s sample of likely voters has changed, although because they never publish their partisan splits, there’s no way to tell by how much exactly.

Speaking of which, number two: Romney trails overall by six points while leading among independents … by 14?

The only way to make those numbers make sense is if the sample of likely voters skews sharply Democratic, which seems improbable, and if the sample of independents here is minuscule. That wouldn’t be unusual for CNN, if so: Just like last week, it looks like they’re pressing hard to get self-identified indies to identify themselves as leaners one way or the other and then reserving the indie column for the few remaining “true independents.” With a small enough sample, Romney could theoretically lead O by 50 points among this group and still trail overall.

Three: There sure does seem to be a pronounced age split in this poll:

That’s right in line with conventional wisdom — O leads big among younger voters, Romney leads among older — but note that it’s not young adult who are really driving Obama’s advantage here. It’s the middle-aged, ages 35 to 49, that are decisive to his overall margin. Not sure how to explain that dramatic effect. It’s always tempting to resort to Medicare politics to account for sharp age disparities but it’s not obvious to me why near-seniors would be fairly evenly split while slightly younger voters would tilt sharply. Maybe the Democrats’ culture-war convention played well with them? But middle-aged adults tend to be pro-life on balance. Hmmm.

Lots of oddness to O’s bounciness, then — although, bearing that in mind, I still don’t like the look of this trend, especially in light of the last post:

This one strikes me as bad too, although there’s nothing surprising about it:

Romney’s been banking since day one on winning an “Obama vs. Not Obama” election, but it’s easier to imagine a race like that ending in a semi-landslide for the challenger than in a narrow victory, which increasingly appears to be Mitt’s best-case scenario. The “Not Obama” voters in Mitt’s column will be out in force no matter what, whereas O’s support among pro-Obama voters depends, I think, to some extent on how the polls look down the stretch. If it’s close, he has a stronger pitch to “unlikely voters” who like him to haul their asses down to the polling place on election day and put him over the top then he does if the race looks like a lost cause circa mid-October. But then, this is really just another way of saying that Romney needs to do more to make the pro-Romney case among undecideds rather than just the anti-Obama case, which is already as clear cut as can be. That’s what the convention was supposed to be about, and per the trendlines here, evidently it did some good. Enough good, though?


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Romney has an excellent track record of bringing back losing companies and the Salt Lake City Olympics. Yeah, bringing back the USA will be a tougher job, but Romney is far more qualified to be the Moses that leads us to the promised land than is the jug-eared Chicago mobster.

Corporal Tunnel on September 10, 2012 at 6:26 PM

He didn’t do much for Massachusetts. It was one of the worst in the country under Romney.

Warren Buffett did well in the free market as well, but that doesn’t make him a conservative nor are his ideas good ones.

Moses he ain’t.

sharrukin on September 10, 2012 at 6:30 PM

I’m hoping my bride will make her homemade Chicken Alfredo when she gets off work. She uses Southwest seasoning on the chicken.

C’mon Mitt! Hitch up your pants and charge!

kingsjester on September 10, 2012 at 6:27 PM

All this talk of food makes me want to have more dinner.

STOP!

gophergirl on September 10, 2012 at 6:30 PM

Mittens just isn’t making the case for himself, and I’m tired of making for GOP candidates. It started with GWB rolling over and not defending himself on Iraq, continued with McCain’s rotten campaign and now more of same with Mittens.

Yeah, I’ll drag my butt down to the polls on Nov 6, but I’m not gonna get into anymore tear-ass arguments with lefties and Donks for someone to lame to fight for himself

Bruno Strozek on September 10, 2012 at 6:31 PM

So let’s say this poll is accurate. What are we going to do? Cry in our beer, or try to change things? Will you donate money, donate time, spread the word? People say no one sees web ads. Are you posting them on social networks to help spread the word? Don’t just sit there worrying, do something.

SAZMD on September 10, 2012 at 6:31 PM

Chudi on September 10, 2012 at 6:28 PM

Oh God, I find myself agreeing with chupachudi. It truly is the apocalypse.

cozmo on September 10, 2012 at 6:31 PM

It’s hard to poll well against Santa Claus, especially when your message is “hey, all those gifts he’s giving you aren’t paid for and are going to have to be returned”…

Strike Hornet on September 10, 2012 at 6:27 PM

Well said. If nothing else we get to find out 11/6 if we’re a nation of responsible adults or petulant children.

Kataklysmic on September 10, 2012 at 6:31 PM

Media is liberal and they are worried for their Hero- very worried.
So what would be good way to psychologically give our side a boost and deflate the GOP and sow dissent in their ranks?
If you said rigged polling, you win a cookie.

jjshaka on September 10, 2012 at 6:31 PM

Based on the numbers, I did a Gaussian elimination and the DRI split for the CNN poll is:

D/R/I
44/34/22

A +10 Dem advantage.

MrX on September 10, 2012 at 6:30 PM

Just repeated for emphasis. Who in their right minds believes this would be an accurate prediction of turnout. Eeyore? Anyone?

oldroy on September 10, 2012 at 6:31 PM

I’m sure the Mr. Limbaugh warned us of this back in, oh, April or so.

SouthernGent on September 10, 2012 at 6:32 PM

You own this, GOP establishment. If Not-Obama loses, the Tea Partiers are taking over the GOP like the pool scene in Caddyshack.

I’ve already unwrapped a candy bar…

Mr. Wednesday Night on September 10, 2012 at 6:32 PM

Latest polls are a joint venture between CNN and UEA (University of East Anglia)!

socalcon on September 10, 2012 at 6:33 PM

“Yeah sure I lost my job, my house, and my savings, but I want to be on the winning side so I’m voting for the moron who caused all this negativity.”

Bishop on September 10, 2012 at 6:34 PM

Gaussian elimination

…eh? That surely is a medical term, huh?

socalcon on September 10, 2012 at 6:34 PM

You own this, GOP establishment. If Not-Obama loses, the Tea Partiers are taking over the GOP like the pool scene in Caddyshack.

I’ve already unwrapped a candy bar…

Mr. Wednesday Night on September 10, 2012 at 6:32 PM

The fact that you’re cheering on an Obama victory, is pathetic.

wargamer6 on September 10, 2012 at 6:35 PM

The fact that you’re cheering on an Obama victory, is pathetic.

wargamer6 on September 10, 2012 at 6:35 PM

I agree!..:)

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 6:36 PM

Why was this so quickly posted and not the ARG poll which had Romney up 49-46% just the other day, right after the Dem convention? I looked for it–not posted. Why? Yet this crap CNN poll is? Are we masochists? Is the intention of this blog to discourage conservatives? Why so quick to spread the negative? There’s an annoying pattern here.

writeblock on September 10, 2012 at 6:37 PM

“Yeah sure I lost my job, my house, and my savings, but I want to be on the winning side so I’m voting for the moron who caused all this negativity.”

Bishop on September 10, 2012 at 6:34 PM

Wait Booooosh is going to be on the ballot?! /

Kataklysmic on September 10, 2012 at 6:37 PM

I’ve come to the conclusion that the Dem’s game is to have enough “polls” supporting their candidate so they can claim they are leading in the hope of convincing undecided voters that they should vote for a “winner.”

Truth is no obstacle when comes to this group.

EdmundBurke247 on September 10, 2012 at 6:29 PM

…Then, even when their trounced, whine like Florida 2000…

socalcon on September 10, 2012 at 6:38 PM

All this talk of food makes me want to have more dinner.

STOP!

gophergirl on September 10, 2012 at 6:30 PM

Lamb-chops started here- rosemary and thyme, a little olive oil, salt and pepper. 2 minutes each side under the broiler, then put in bottom of oven for about 9 minutes. Serve with slices tomato, whole basil, and sliced home-made mozzarella.

Yum, yum. As delicious a creation as a White House Gallup Poll.

oldroy on September 10, 2012 at 6:38 PM

Mittens just isn’t making the case for himself, and I’m tired of making for GOP candidates. It started with GWB ….

Bruno Strozek on September 10, 2012 at 6:31 PM

Bush’s dad ran a terrible campaign. I remember thinking it seemed as if he did not want to even win.

CW on September 10, 2012 at 6:38 PM

I think the polling in the 2004 election was the most honest and best predictor of election outcomes. john Kerry’s second term as president was three times Better than his first.

tom daschle concerned on September 10, 2012 at 6:39 PM

d1carter on September 10, 2012 at 6:30 PM

Murray ahead, 2 sets to love!

22044 on September 10, 2012 at 6:39 PM

His favorable ratings have gone UP? BASED ON WHAT????
W. T. F., over.

Purple Fury

I think it was Eva Longorio’s endorsement that put Obummer over the top.

See, single and divorced women don’t want to meet prospective husbands with secure jobs or raise their children in stability and other “stuff”.

They have the government to take care of them…just like it did for Black women.

Typicalwhitewoman on September 10, 2012 at 6:39 PM

DON’T BELIEVE THE LIBERAL MEDIA!

nazo311 on September 10, 2012 at 6:39 PM

Are we masochists? Is the intention of this blog to discourage conservatives? Why so quick to spread the negative? There’s an annoying pattern here.

writeblock on September 10, 2012 at 6:37 PM

Excellent questions.

oldroy on September 10, 2012 at 6:39 PM

Moses he ain’t.

sharrukin on September 10, 2012 at 6:30 PM

If you believe that Romney is Obama-lite, then you’ve already given up. I don’t believe that. I believed with Romney we get closer to where we need to be. It’s a game of inches, it’s not going to happen overnight. We don’t get everything we want with Romney, but he does love his country which is more than I can say for Obama.

Corporal Tunnel on September 10, 2012 at 6:39 PM

Well, as long as the polls say Obama is doing an amazing job as president, that’s good enough for me.

My wife and I are still going to vote for Romney/Ryan though. We’ll see what happens with that poll on November 6.

St Gaudens on September 10, 2012 at 6:39 PM

You own this, GOP establishment. If Not-Obama loses, the Tea Partiers are taking over the GOP like the pool scene in Caddyshack.

I’ve already unwrapped a candy bar…

Mr. Wednesday Night on September 10, 2012 at 6:32 PM

Guess where you can stick that candy bar…

changer1701 on September 10, 2012 at 6:40 PM

sharrukin on September 10, 2012 at 6:30 PM

What you to mean worst? Using what metric? You live in MA? What do you know about MA?

If you want to use job numbers. It was 5.6% when he took office and 4.6% when he left.

2/3 of MA residents are satisfied with the Health Care reform.

There was a rainy day fund when he left, and his budgets were balanced.

bayview on September 10, 2012 at 6:40 PM

gophergirl on September 10, 2012 at 6:30 PM

Aw, you don’t love the early QOTD vibe, gophergirl? :D

22044 on September 10, 2012 at 6:40 PM

DON’T BELIEVE THE LIBERAL MEDIA!

nazo311 on September 10, 2012 at 6:39 PM

Yep!

I think Team Romney is making headway in swing states.

“MANSFIELD — Mitt Romney’s campaign speech here kept getting interrupted as several hundred people cheered repeatedly, raising the noise level as their voices echoed off the cinder block walls and cement-floored wharehouse of PR Machine Works, Inc.

Keeping to his standard stump speech, Romney hammered at President Barack Obama’s policies, saying, “We don’t want another four more years of the last four years.”

Playing off Obama’s campaign theme of “Forward,” Romney said, “Forwarned is better than forward. We’d see more years of high unemployment. We’d see more year of massive deficits. … We’re forewarned. We’re not going to re-elect this man.”

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/politics/2012/09/10/raucous-crowd-welcomes-romney/

workingclass artist on September 10, 2012 at 6:41 PM

wargamer6 on September 10, 2012 at 6:35 PM

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 6:36 PM

changer1701 on September 10, 2012 at 6:40 PM

Careful y’all, words like that will get a normally decent fellow ranting that your family should be destroyed.

cozmo on September 10, 2012 at 6:42 PM

oldroy on September 10, 2012 at 6:38 PM

Chelie posted a meatloaf recipe here a couple of months ago. If I can find it, maybe I’ll repost it. :)

22044 on September 10, 2012 at 6:42 PM

The Romney camp needs to make some adjustments, like run an aggressive campaign…

idesign on September 10, 2012 at 6:42 PM

You own this, GOP establishment. If Not-Obama loses, the Tea Partiers are taking over the GOP like the pool scene in Caddyshack.

I’ve already unwrapped a candy bar…

Mr. Wednesday Night on September 10, 2012 at 6:32 PM

HAHAHAHA

“Hey Bigfoot, don’t trip in the water!”

Chuck Schick on September 10, 2012 at 6:42 PM

Romney needs to shake it up. I live in NC and the vaunted money spending blitz?? well – I’ve got news for you – the commercials are BORING, YAWN, YAWN. If they were a color, they would be gray, if they were a breakfast cereal, they would be oatmeal. He needs to do something BOLD, at least in the damn commercials. Really.

djl130 on September 10, 2012 at 6:42 PM

I’d even be happy if Team Mittens was running a 3 yards and cloud of dust campaign, but it sure looks like he’s taking a knee on every down so far.

Bruno Strozek on September 10, 2012 at 6:42 PM

I believed with Romney we get closer to where we need to be. It’s a game of inches, it’s not going to happen overnight. We don’t get everything we want with Romney, but he does love his country which is more than I can say for Obama.

Corporal Tunnel on September 10, 2012 at 6:39 PM

What do you think he’s going to do that will alter what is happening on the national stage? The debt is skyrocketing and I have heard nothing serious from the GOP about cutting anything. A measly $100 billion cut from $1,600 billion in overspending was considered radical.

What are you expecting from Romney or the GOP?

sharrukin on September 10, 2012 at 6:44 PM

Chelie posted a meatloaf recipe here a couple of months ago. If I can find it, maybe I’ll repost it. :)

22044 on September 10, 2012 at 6:42 PM

Was forced to eat a not too good meat loaf as a kid. Never got over it. Must be like Gallup feels after their dealings with Axlerud.

“The Gallup Poll – Inspired by the White House.”

“CNN – the name you trust, especially with polls.”

oldroy on September 10, 2012 at 6:46 PM

Mr. Wednesday Night: fringe nut.

bayview on September 10, 2012 at 6:46 PM

I’d even be happy if Team Mittens was running a 3 yards and cloud of dust campaign, but it sure looks like he’s taking a knee on every down so far.

Bruno Strozek on September 10, 2012 at 6:42 PM

Can you people please shut up.

Chudi on September 10, 2012 at 6:46 PM

What do you think he’s going to do that will alter what is happening on the national stage? The debt is skyrocketing and I have heard nothing serious from the GOP about cutting anything. A measly $100 billion cut from $1,600 billion in overspending was considered radical.

What are you expecting from Romney or the GOP?

sharrukin on September 10, 2012 at 6:44 PM

Why don’t you go vote for Obama. Why the hell are you here?

Chudi on September 10, 2012 at 6:47 PM

Mittens just isn’t making the case for himself, and I’m tired of making for GOP candidates. It started with GWB rolling over and not defending himself on Iraq, continued with McCain’s rotten campaign and now more of same with Mittens.

Yeah, I’ll drag my butt down to the polls on Nov 6, but I’m not gonna get into anymore tear-ass arguments with lefties and Donks for someone to lame to fight for himself

Bruno Strozek on September 10, 2012 at 6:31 PM

Exactly.

Nixon was the last Establishment Republican that actually won his election that ended very badly for the GOP.

Since then five Establishment Republicans have lost the GOP the Whitehouse. Not a single one won their election. Two became Establishment while President both Bush’s. GHW Bush ran Establishment and lost. GW Bush became Establishment right after he won his second term he lost us the House and Senate the Senate quickly the House in 2006. He lost all three branches in 2008 bringing us Obama. McCain was also Establishment so he had no chance of wining.

Now we are reliving 2008. As we come closer and closer to the election it is becoming clear that it is the Establishment way of running for office that makes them always lose. Mitt is making the same mistakes that McCain made. His supporters are saying the same things McCains did. Oh do not pay attention to those Polls they do not really mean anything.

Mitt lost the day he became the Nominee. No Establishment Candidate will ever again win the Presidency Nixon signed their death warrants. The public simply does not trust Establishment Republicans.

Steveangell on September 10, 2012 at 6:47 PM

fringe nut.

bayview on September 10, 2012 at 6:46 PM

No. That’s a Baby Ruth.

portlandon on September 10, 2012 at 6:48 PM

Gaussian elimination

…eh? That surely is a medical term, huh?

socalcon on September 10, 2012 at 6:34 PM

HAHAHA!

It’s a matrix diagonal solving method.

Try it yourself.

http://ncalculators.com/matrix/gauss-elimination-calculator.htm

The X,Y,Z values are D,R,I in this case. So just input the values into the matrix according to the poll. D+R+I must equal 100%, so the last line is all 1′s.

Here’s what I input (enter the numbers only).

3D + 96R + 54I = 46 for Romney
97D + 2R + 40I = 52 for Obama
1D + 1R + 1I = 1 (1 = 100% and DRI must total 100%)

3 equations, 3 unknowns is solvable. Plug that in and it gives 44/34/22 D/R/I split.

Using this technique, you can find out the DRI split of all polls as long as they give you how much Romney and Obama get for each of D,R and I.

MrX on September 10, 2012 at 6:49 PM

oldroy on September 10, 2012 at 6:46 PM

Interesting metaphor. Your food sounds delicious, by the way.

22044 on September 10, 2012 at 6:49 PM

Can you people please shut up.

Chudi on September 10, 2012 at 6:46 PM

Shut up he explained.

sharrukin on September 10, 2012 at 6:49 PM

Romney needs to shake it up. I live in NC and the vaunted money spending blitz?? well – I’ve got news for you – the commercials are BORING, YAWN, YAWN. If they were a color, they would be gray, if they were a breakfast cereal, they would be oatmeal. He needs to do something BOLD, at least in the damn commercials. Really.

djl130 on September 10, 2012 at 6:42 PM

Yet he is ahead in North Carolina.

oldroy on September 10, 2012 at 6:50 PM

Why don’t you go vote for Obama. Why the hell are you here?

Chudi on September 10, 2012 at 6:47 PM

Why are you here? Trolling?

Cut the personal attacks they are against the policy of this site.

Steveangell on September 10, 2012 at 6:50 PM

Monty Python sketch appropriate for this moment, lol!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eid8vK0s7sY

nathor on September 10, 2012 at 6:50 PM

Careful y’all, words like that will get a normally decent fellow ranting that your family should be destroyed.

cozmo on September 10, 2012 at 6:42 PM

Heh. Really? So he’s an Internet tough guy?

changer1701 on September 10, 2012 at 6:52 PM

Are we masochists?
writeblock on September 10, 2012 at 6:37 PM

you saw who wrote this one, right?

t8stlikchkn on September 10, 2012 at 6:52 PM

Can you people please shut up.

Chudi on September 10, 2012 at 6:46 PM

To paraprhase my old Lefy Comrades “No Peace! No Justice!” chant:

“No visible effort! No shutting up!”

Bruno Strozek on September 10, 2012 at 6:53 PM

Monty Python sketch appropriate for this moment, lol!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eid8vK0s7sY

nathor on September 10, 2012 at 6:50 PM

Another:

“Nothing to see here. Please disperse. Nothing to see here.”

portlandon on September 10, 2012 at 6:53 PM

Mitt lost the day he became the Nominee. No Establishment Candidate will ever again win the Presidency Nixon signed their death warrants. The public simply does not trust Establishment Republicans.

Steveangell on September 10, 2012 at 6:47 PM

Bush 41 was establishment…Bush 43 was establishment…plenty of congressional candidates have won that are establishment.

I fear, ABR (to borrow a Cozmo phrase) nutball, that you simply have no idea what you’re talking about.

changer1701 on September 10, 2012 at 6:54 PM

I’m ignoring polls for another week at least – master of my domain.

forest on September 10, 2012 at 6:17 PM

This actually a smart choice. This and other polls obviously captures Obama’s post convention good will. Rather than trying to figure out why 5 polls are wrong, including Rasmussen …. Come back next week and they will likely revert to form, +2 for one of them. I’ve said it over and over, this will be a +/- 2-3% election. Those forecasting a blowout either way are ignoring the polarized electorate. 46-47% will NEVER vote the opposite candidate

NextGen on September 10, 2012 at 6:54 PM

Yet he is ahead in North Carolina.

oldroy on September 10, 2012 at 6:50 PM

Because Obama is a known and as such is waiting to run his commercials till later.

Obama also raised 3 million more than Romney last month.

Steveangell on September 10, 2012 at 6:55 PM

The debt is skyrocketing and I have heard nothing serious from the GOP about cutting anything. A measly $100 billion cut from $1,600 billion in overspending was considered radical.

What are you expecting from Romney or the GOP?

sharrukin on September 10, 2012 at 6:44 PM

It’s over then. Time to hole up in our bunkers and eat Ramen noodles while we wait for the the end of the world as we know it.

Corporal Tunnel on September 10, 2012 at 6:56 PM

Heh. Really? So he’s an Internet tough guy?

changer1701 on September 10, 2012 at 6:52 PM

He’s normally a decent guy. But even though he picks on the idiot ABR nutballs, he doesn’t want others to.

cozmo on September 10, 2012 at 6:57 PM

changer1701 on September 10, 2012 at 6:54 PM

Nothing to borrow, MM has used it as well.

cozmo on September 10, 2012 at 6:59 PM

Bed-wetters and trolls rejoice!

rhombus on September 10, 2012 at 7:00 PM

What are you expecting from Romney or the GOP?

sharrukin on September 10, 2012 at 6:44 PM

It’s over then. Time to hole up in our bunkers and eat Ramen noodles while we wait for the the end of the world as we know it.

Corporal Tunnel on September 10, 2012 at 6:56 PM

Are you just voting GOP as a way to cheer yourself up?

The situation is what it is, and real solutions would be my preferred option to feel good happy-clap. We got a dose of that with Obama and I don’t see the GOP variety as being any more valuable.

sharrukin on September 10, 2012 at 7:03 PM

Here’s the latest Bishop poll: I was at Cabela’s today and the gun counter was 5 people deep all the way across; I took a number at 62 and they were just then calling out number 42. As I waited my turn I saw the .223 shelves were picked over worse than a Zebra carcass on the African plains.

Bishop on September 10, 2012 at 6:20 PM

It was that way at the Cabela’s in Omaha the days after he won in 2008 when I picked up a H&K USP .45 and some ammo. From what I understand, gun sales if nothing else have been doing pretty well ever since.

Yakko77 on September 10, 2012 at 6:28 PM

..switch to BP, gents. No DROS. Instant pick-up.

The War Planner on September 10, 2012 at 7:03 PM

NextGen on September 10, 2012 at 6:54 PM

Gallup number today is unchanged from yesterday.

You cannot find the Reuters/IPSOS poll (the most biased and openly pro Barry) for today on the Reuters web site. Reuter’s MO is, they publish and loudly trumpet any poll result favorable to Barry as soon as possible after the 4:30 pm release time. If the result is favorable to Romney, or did not fit the meme, the poll disappears in those days.

bayview on September 10, 2012 at 7:03 PM

cozmo on September 10, 2012 at 6:42 PM

LoLz..:)

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 7:04 PM

CNN poll yeah, but there are people out there stretching for any excuse to not vote GOP. Hit up the habitual hereditary Dems in the workplace during the DNC. Told them to watch and see where their party was taking us. The one responded with some flip aphorism he must have heard on The Daily Show. A GOP candidate has to be up by 5-7 to even have a break-even chance against Democrat institutionalized vote fraud. Reassurances by campaign officials smack of DWS. We are about to live through the zombie apocalypse.

curved space on September 10, 2012 at 7:06 PM

Just think, if Romney wins, you’ll all feel that much better because of these polls.

If he loses, it will be cold, hard truth time. time to blame the TrueCons and purists and socons and Palin and Palinistas and ABR wackos…

What’s for dinner?

portlandon on September 10, 2012 at 6:09 PM</Edited for accuracy.

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:06 PM

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:06 PM

Cuda!!!..:)

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 7:07 PM

Ooops, sorry:

Just think, if Romney wins, you’ll all feel that much better because of these polls.

If he loses, it will be cold, hard truth time. time to blame the TrueCons and purists and socons and Palin and Palinistas and ABR wackos…

What’s for dinner?

portlandon on September 10, 2012 at 6:09 PM

Edited for accuracy.

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:07 PM

It’s over then. Time to hole up in our bunkers and eat Ramen noodles while we wait for the the end of the world as we know it.

Corporal Tunnel on September 10, 2012 at 6:56 PM

That is sharrukin’s life, before and long, long after the election.

bayview on September 10, 2012 at 7:07 PM

Is there anyone who did not think the MSM and their pollsters would find a way to give Obama a convention bounce whether really was one or not?

Rasmussen and Gallup show a small bounce, which is to be expected.

CNN shows a pretty big bounce, based on what appears to be a highly suspect sampling. I’m not surprised.

farsighted on September 10, 2012 at 7:08 PM

Cuda!!!..:)

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 7:07 PM

They are out in force ;)

JPeterman on September 10, 2012 at 7:09 PM

Romney = toast, bad polls, GOP probably won’t take the Senate, so says Politico…

I didn’t know it was possible for a party to implode so badly in less than a week despite an actual reason.

The silly season has arrived.

Erich66 on September 10, 2012 at 7:09 PM

You own this, GOP establishment. If Not-Obama loses, the Tea Partiers are taking over the GOP like the pool scene in Caddyshack.

I’ve already unwrapped a candy bar…

Mr. Wednesday Night on September 10, 2012 at 6:32 PM

If Not-Obama loses, I will blame the “must have a perfect candidate” neck or nothing, conservatives who want to prove a point at the expense of the nation.

They will probably vote for Obama just to help him beat the not-Reagan, or worse the not-RuePaul

clnurnberg on September 10, 2012 at 7:09 PM

HAVE YOU PEOPLE LOST YOUR MINDS!!!???

So some polls created by folks of questionable bias and questionable methodology showing a totally irrational bump in the polls after the most pathetic and least watched DNC in recent history.

…..And you blame Romney’s supposed lack if appeal and messaging?

Adding to that…you get outright leftist trolls and anti-Romneyites on here stirring the pot……

And you fall into the abyss of negativity they are trying to create. YES YOU….the great intellects of the right…fall for simple Alinsky propaganda tactics. Those don’t work anymore….right?! Dummies.

Two steps to rationality:

1. Ignore the polls..ALL OF THEM…until the last two weeks. Just like the only part that matters in an NBA game is the last two minutes. Before that time…the polls do nothing except drive traffic of idiocy to this and their sites.

2. DO NOT FEED THE TROLLS. Identify and ignore.

The true pulse of Americas feelings will not be determined by unsolicited opinion but rather the publics efforts to get to the voting booth and pull the lever.

DLEW on September 10, 2012 at 7:10 PM

Just repeated for emphasis. Who in their right minds believes this would be an accurate prediction of turnout. Eeyore? Anyone?

oldroy on September 10, 2012 at 6:31 PM

..agreed. Remember the delusional D&C in Charlotte? They NEVER mentioned the economy nor jobs yet the polls skew them ahead. The side effect to this will probably be a massive coma for Cousin Pookie. I’m betting the over/under on him snoozing through this is December 1st.

Dem mantra: “Obama has got this one in the bag!”

The War Planner on September 10, 2012 at 7:10 PM

For about a year now I’ve been saying it’s going to be really close. Election night is gonna be a nail biter. Romney has no room for error.

terryannonline on September 10, 2012 at 7:10 PM

Romney needs to shake it up. I live in NC and the vaunted money spending blitz?? well – I’ve got news for you – the commercials are BORING, YAWN, YAWN. If they were a color, they would be gray, if they were a breakfast cereal, they would be oatmeal. He needs to do something BOLD, at least in the damn commercials. Really.

djl130 on September 10, 2012 at 6:42 PM

Yep.

They are at least a decade past due date.

My favorite of the day is hearing Rove on Hannity say that the next time Obama refers to one of them (Romney/Ryan) as un-American, Romney should should “shake the President’s hand and say ‘Mr. President, you know that’s beneath the dignity’…” blahblahblah, and Hannity, falling into Muppet mode, quotes Reagan with “there you go again”…

…After that deathknell advice, I’m convinced Rove does not want Romney to win, and he’s simply coalesing power for Jeb’s kid, whose like 38 or so and looks more Latino than any Latino we saw at either convention.

budfox on September 10, 2012 at 7:11 PM

Are we masochists? Is the intention of this blog to discourage conservatives? Why so quick to spread the negative? There’s an annoying pattern here.

writeblock on September 10, 2012 at 6:37 PM

Excellent questions.

oldroy on September 10, 2012 at 6:39 PM

LOL…a site THIS pro-Romney isn’t good enough. It has to be pro-Romney all the time. Don’t even talk about polls that show Romney trailing!!!

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:11 PM

They are out in force ;)

JPeterman on September 10, 2012 at 7:09 PM

Good business for HotAir, I guess. Or something.

22044 on September 10, 2012 at 7:11 PM

The true pulse of Americas feelings will not be determined by unsolicited opinion but rather the publics efforts to get to the voting booth and pull the lever.

DLEW on September 10, 2012 at 7:10 PM

..you vote in 1980? Because you just described that election to a tee!

The War Planner on September 10, 2012 at 7:11 PM

The X,Y,Z values are D,R,I in this case. So just input the values into the matrix according to the poll. D+R+I must equal 100%, so the last line is all 1′s.

Here’s what I input (enter the numbers only).

3D + 96R + 54I = 46 for Romney
97D + 2R + 40I = 52 for Obama
1D + 1R + 1I = 1 (1 = 100% and DRI must total 100%)

3 equations, 3 unknowns is solvable. Plug that in and it gives 44/34/22 D/R/I split.

Using this technique, you can find out the DRI split of all polls as long as they give you how much Romney and Obama get for each of D,R and I.

MrX on September 10, 2012 at 6:49 PM

Great work, Mr. X! I’ve got an Excel spreadsheet that does the same calculation–you put in the vote for each candidate among D, R, and I, and the overall topline vote, and it backs out the D/R/I split.

With the CNN poll, I got what you got: 43.9% D, 34.2% R, 21.9% I.

My spreadsheet also predicts the vote for a “balanced” electorate of 35% D, 35% R, and 30% I. In the case of the CNN poll, this would have Romney leading 50.9 – 46.7.

How to Lie with Statistics 101, or How to Create a DNC Bounce:

Call more Democrats than Republicans, and don’t ask Indies, because you might not like what they say, even though they decide elections. Romney leading Indies by 14 points is a GREAT sign!

Eeyores of the Right, cheer up!!!

But since Eeyore is a donkey, let the Eeyores of the Left mope when they find out the bounce cat is as dead as Bin Laden.

Steve Z on September 10, 2012 at 7:12 PM

If Not-Obama loses, I will blame the “must have a perfect candidate” neck or nothing, conservatives who want to prove a point at the expense of the nation.

clnurnberg on September 10, 2012 at 7:09 PM

Of course you will. That squish excuse has been waiting in the wings for 4 years now. It’s the only reason moderates ever lose, in fact.

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:13 PM

Since the RNC Team Mittens is channeling McClellan.

They better start channeling Sherman.

(Apologies to you Dixie HA folks, no offense intended…)

Bruno Strozek on September 10, 2012 at 7:14 PM

The true pulse of Americas feelings will not be determined by unsolicited opinion but rather the publics efforts to get to the voting booth and pull the lever.

DLEW on September 10, 2012 at 7:10 PM

..you vote in 1980? Because you just described that election to a tee!

The War Planner on September 10, 2012 at 7:11 PM

Yeah, right. In 1980 we had, you know, a conservative running. I just think this Mitt-as-Reagan stuff is hilarious.

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:14 PM

They are out in force ;)

JPeterman on September 10, 2012 at 7:09 PM

Good point!..They seem to have a spring in their step!..Very sad..:)

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 7:16 PM

Good business for HotAir, I guess. Or something.

22044 on September 10, 2012 at 7:11 PM

Maybe so, but not worth my time anymore.

JPeterman on September 10, 2012 at 7:17 PM

Based on the numbers, I did a Gaussian elimination and the DRI split for the CNN poll is:

D/R/I
44/34/22

A +10 Dem advantage.

MrX on September 10, 2012 at 6:30 PM

Do you think we could teach AllahPundit how to solve 3 equations in 3 unknowns? It would save the Eeyores around here lots of grief!

Steve Z on September 10, 2012 at 7:18 PM

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:14 PM

That’s okay, we think the same about you.

cozmo on September 10, 2012 at 7:18 PM

cozmo on September 10, 2012 at 7:18 PM

Cuda!!!..:)

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 7:19 PM

Yeah, right. In 1980 we had, you know, a conservative running. I just think this Mitt-as-Reagan stuff is hilarious.

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:14 PM

Yes…the sole reason Reagan won was because he was a conservative….. Gimme a break.

The reason Carter lost…….because Carter created an American shit-hole…..and people decided to give a guy who seemed competent a chance to fix it. It’s that simple.

DLEW on September 10, 2012 at 7:21 PM

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:14 PM

That’s okay, we think the same about you.

cozmo on September 10, 2012 at 7:18 PM

Awwww. You’re just saying that to avoid getting b1tch-slapped by your brownshirt masters again. Anyway I don’t think the ‘bots find much hilarious these days.

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:22 PM

Are you just voting GOP as a way to cheer yourself up?

No, I’m doing fine. It’s you who seems depressed, on the other hand. I’m voting for the best choice. You want everyone to think we don’t have a choice. Sorry, I don’t have a defeatist attitude.

Corporal Tunnel on September 10, 2012 at 7:22 PM

MrX on September 10, 2012 at 6:30 PM

Do you think we could teach AllahPundit how to solve 3 equations in 3 unknowns? It would save the Eeyores around here lots of grief!

Steve Z on September 10, 2012 at 7:18 PM

..followed your computations; does the assumption that the three have to add up to 100% hold though? Is D/R/I the universe. I have seen polls with those three groups adding up to less than 100%.

The War Planner on September 10, 2012 at 7:22 PM

Cuda!!!..:)

Dire Straits on September 10, 2012 at 7:19 PM

Please don’t do that. It’s sets off some kind of sonic beep that can be heard by ornery fish.

Flora Duh on September 10, 2012 at 7:23 PM

Yes…the sole reason Reagan won was because he was a conservative….. Gimme a break.

The reason Carter lost…….because Carter created an American shit-hole…..and people decided to give a guy who seemed competent a chance to fix it. It’s that simple.

DLEW on September 10, 2012 at 7:21 PM

You think Bush Sr would’ve beaten Carter? how cute.

Reagan won because he drew a sharp distinction between himself and Carter. Plus he had the support of conservative voters. You don’t have a base beyond a little claque of squishes, you’re not going to win squat.

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:24 PM

If Not-Obama loses, I will blame the “must have a perfect candidate” neck or nothing, conservatives who want to prove a point at the expense of the nation.

They will probably vote for Obama just to help him beat the not-Reagan, or worse the not-RuePaul

clnurnberg on September 10, 2012 at 7:09 PM

Let’s face it……we didn’t have good options this year. Romney is the best we had. I was a Newt supporter at first but he had NO campaign apparatus.

terryannonline on September 10, 2012 at 7:24 PM

For the CNN poll, ORC International interviewed 1,022 adult Americans by telephone from September 7-9. The poll has a sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. The sample also includes 875 interviews among registered voters (plus or minus 3.5 percentage points) and 709 interviews among likely voters.

calm down people. this is a bogus poll. sixty-nine percent of all adults are not voting in november (last time it was sixty-two percent…bush v kerry..sixty-one)

second…indies going for mitt big time. ok?

so this poll has lousy likely voter screen and is lib biased…and indies like mitt.

r keller on September 10, 2012 at 7:25 PM

The reason Carter lost…….because Carter created an American shit-hole…..and people decided to give a guy who seemed competent a chance to fix it. It’s that simple.

DLEW on September 10, 2012 at 7:21 PM

..You nailed it. But NOTHING’s that simple to a mentally-retarded German Shepard like Dr Rin Tin Tin. He’d rather be humping Sgt Biff O’Hara’s leg.

The War Planner on September 10, 2012 at 7:25 PM

O/T

Van Duzer told POLITICO that he packs on protein with his homemade pepperoni pizza. And the 6-foot-3-inch, 260-pound Van Duzer says he bench presses 350 pounds at six reps, usually twice a week — nearly double the estimated 176 pounds that Obama weighs.

176? There you have it – we elected Ichabod Crane.

Lanceman on September 10, 2012 at 7:26 PM

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