CNN poll: Obama 52, Romney 46 among likely voters

posted at 6:01 pm on September 10, 2012 by Allahpundit

The race was even among likelies in CNN’s poll after the GOP convention, so here’s further confirmation that O has indeed gotten a bounce. (Of particular note, his favorable rating rose to 57 percent, his highest in two years.) Three major caveats, though. One: While there’s a nice bounce among likely voters, there’s virtually no bounce among registereds. Last week O led Romney by seven points among that group; this week he leads by eight. Obviously the composition of CNN’s sample of likely voters has changed, although because they never publish their partisan splits, there’s no way to tell by how much exactly.

Speaking of which, number two: Romney trails overall by six points while leading among independents … by 14?

The only way to make those numbers make sense is if the sample of likely voters skews sharply Democratic, which seems improbable, and if the sample of independents here is minuscule. That wouldn’t be unusual for CNN, if so: Just like last week, it looks like they’re pressing hard to get self-identified indies to identify themselves as leaners one way or the other and then reserving the indie column for the few remaining “true independents.” With a small enough sample, Romney could theoretically lead O by 50 points among this group and still trail overall.

Three: There sure does seem to be a pronounced age split in this poll:

That’s right in line with conventional wisdom — O leads big among younger voters, Romney leads among older — but note that it’s not young adult who are really driving Obama’s advantage here. It’s the middle-aged, ages 35 to 49, that are decisive to his overall margin. Not sure how to explain that dramatic effect. It’s always tempting to resort to Medicare politics to account for sharp age disparities but it’s not obvious to me why near-seniors would be fairly evenly split while slightly younger voters would tilt sharply. Maybe the Democrats’ culture-war convention played well with them? But middle-aged adults tend to be pro-life on balance. Hmmm.

Lots of oddness to O’s bounciness, then — although, bearing that in mind, I still don’t like the look of this trend, especially in light of the last post:

This one strikes me as bad too, although there’s nothing surprising about it:

Romney’s been banking since day one on winning an “Obama vs. Not Obama” election, but it’s easier to imagine a race like that ending in a semi-landslide for the challenger than in a narrow victory, which increasingly appears to be Mitt’s best-case scenario. The “Not Obama” voters in Mitt’s column will be out in force no matter what, whereas O’s support among pro-Obama voters depends, I think, to some extent on how the polls look down the stretch. If it’s close, he has a stronger pitch to “unlikely voters” who like him to haul their asses down to the polling place on election day and put him over the top then he does if the race looks like a lost cause circa mid-October. But then, this is really just another way of saying that Romney needs to do more to make the pro-Romney case among undecideds rather than just the anti-Obama case, which is already as clear cut as can be. That’s what the convention was supposed to be about, and per the trendlines here, evidently it did some good. Enough good, though?


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Cue the Henny Penny’s

gophergirl on September 10, 2012 at 6:02 PM

Polls are pi$$ing me off!
Enough!

KOOLAID2 on September 10, 2012 at 6:03 PM

CNN poll…stop there Eeyore. Go wash your cat.

DanMan on September 10, 2012 at 6:03 PM

I think all of these recent poll numbers will help the GOP in the long run. Lest we get too cocky. Keep the fear and the fight alive. Stay on point.

the new aesthetic on September 10, 2012 at 6:03 PM

Obviously the composition of CNN’s sample of likely voters has changed, although because they never publish their partisan splits, there’s no way to tell by how much exactly.

That’s why no one should put any stock in their polls.

cozmo on September 10, 2012 at 6:04 PM

Are Americans stuck on stupid?

MisterPundit on September 10, 2012 at 6:04 PM

So slick Willie steps up and lies for an hour, followed by Captain Kickass doing his usual pander to the base, and now he’s got a BOUNCE out of that? His favorable ratings have gone UP? BASED ON WHAT????

W. T. F., over.

Purple Fury on September 10, 2012 at 6:05 PM

to many polls are skewed democratic.

I DEMAND some skewed REPUBLICAN polls.

gerry-mittbot-only wants polls he likes.

gerrym51 on September 10, 2012 at 6:05 PM

Cue the Henny Penny’s

gophergirl on September 10, 2012 at 6:02 PM

Don’t you mean libs and ABR nutballs (but I repeat myself)?

Henny Penny was much nicer.

cozmo on September 10, 2012 at 6:05 PM

14 points up among independents for romney? This poll seems to assume a big D turnout.

lorien1973 on September 10, 2012 at 6:06 PM

People are too stupid to realize he’s making the same speech from 2008. I know people are saying we deserve who we elect but shouldn’t there be life boats on this sinking ship the U.S.S. Stupid.

Cindy Munford on September 10, 2012 at 6:06 PM

Heard that D’s were +9 in this poll- garbage in, garbage out.
This all comes down to Romney making the sale in the debates- give people a decent reason to vote for him and Obama loses..period.

jjshaka on September 10, 2012 at 6:06 PM

they never publish their partisan splits

Which means their “polls” are Junk Science. Always have been, always will be.

Just wait til O’bama loses and they try and get Hillary elected in 2016.

Del Dolemonte on September 10, 2012 at 6:06 PM

I took a poll in my household.

100 percent for Romney.

gerrym51 on September 10, 2012 at 6:07 PM

So the indies prefer R&R by 14 points and Obama still wins by 6?

I call BS

clnurnberg on September 10, 2012 at 6:07 PM

eeyore day at hotair

wargamer6 on September 10, 2012 at 6:07 PM

Leads by 14 among independents, what it is the sample like 55 or 60% Democrat. These people are so shamelessly dishonest.

gsherin on September 10, 2012 at 6:07 PM


DanMan on September 10, 2012 at 6:03 PM

This!

22044 on September 10, 2012 at 6:07 PM

AP said:

Romney’s been banking since day one on winning an “Obama vs. Not Obama” election, but it’s easier to imagine a race like that ending in a semi-landslide for the challenger than in a narrow victory, which increasingly appears to be Mitt’s best-case scenario.

It was always demographically impossible for Romney to do better than a narrow victory. He has to win a larger share of white voters than Reagan did, just to hit 51% overall.

Jon0815 on September 10, 2012 at 6:07 PM

How many polls that basically match Rasmussen do folks have to see to recognize they all are capturing some movement?

Go read Redstate, EE actually has a reasonable take on the topic.

NextGen on September 10, 2012 at 6:07 PM

So Romney wins Indies by 14, and loses by 6? Nice poll you have there…lol.

Chudi on September 10, 2012 at 6:08 PM

Are Americans stuck on stupid?

MisterPundit on September 10, 2012 at 6:04 PM

Finally someone else sees.

Limerick on September 10, 2012 at 6:08 PM

And someone doesn’t think the sample leaned very heavily donk?

clnurnberg on September 10, 2012 at 6:09 PM

Just think, if Romney wins, you’ll all feel that much better because of these polls.

If he loses, it will be cold, hard truth time.

What’s for dinner?

portlandon on September 10, 2012 at 6:09 PM

jjshaka on September 10, 2012 at 6:06 PM

I heard D+10, 11. So crud poll. But SUSA has Romney up by 10 in North Carolina!

IR-MN on September 10, 2012 at 6:09 PM

Maybe CNN has hired the Baghdad Bob Polling Co.

trigon on September 10, 2012 at 6:10 PM

How many polls that basically match Rasmussen do folks have to see to recognize they all are capturing some movement?

Go read Redstate, EE actually has a reasonable take on the topic.

NextGen on September 10, 2012 at 6:07 PM

Nobody is arguing the bounce…but that doesn’t mean that we should suspend disbelief. How does Romney lose by 6 in a poll where he wins 96% of Republicans and 54% of independents?

Conversely, Obama is winning by 6 with 97% of democrats and 40 of independents?

Chudi on September 10, 2012 at 6:10 PM

Flashback: Dukakis Led Bush By 17 Points After 1988 DNC

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2012/09/09/flashback-dukakis-led-bush-17-points-after-1988-dnc#ixzz2617e1Xph

————————————————————-

Flashback: Gallup Had Carter Up 4 Points Over Ronald Reagan in September 1980

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/09/flashback-gallup-had-carter-up-4-points-over-ronald-reagan-in-september-1980

Pork-Chop on September 10, 2012 at 6:11 PM

Obama couldn’t fill Bank of America stadium. Obama gave a conventions speech that even his fanboys in the MSM couldn’t hide their disappointment. A disaster of a job report came out the very next day. So I’m supposed to believe that now — all of a sudden — based on all that, Obama is suddenly the “comeback kid.”

B.S. — it’s all MSM lies. The fact that the ABRs are happy to join in with the OFA kids & run around like Chicken Little doesn’t help matters, but it still is a bunch of b.s.

Drop what you’re doing & spend 4 minutes on this refresher course. I’ve got nothing left to say to any of you eeyores/MOBYs/ABRs — if voting out the America-hating Commmie isn’t enough to get the majority enthusiastic, this country isn’t worth saving.

Dark Star on September 10, 2012 at 6:11 PM

Don’t you mean libs and ABR nutballs (but I repeat myself)?

Henny Penny was much nicer.

cozmo on September 10, 2012 at 6:05 PM

I swear that memo from Romney’s pollster was written directly at this blog.

I’ve never seen so many “sky is falling” posts in my life.

gophergirl on September 10, 2012 at 6:11 PM

Sorry Allah, but I’d trust a CNN pole as far as I would one from WaPo, ABC, NBC, CBS or MSNBC.

GarandFan on September 10, 2012 at 6:12 PM

Where do I sign for Romney +14 among indies on election day?

The Count on September 10, 2012 at 6:12 PM

FlaMurph on September 10, 2012 at 4:58 PM

It’s eeyore’s pity party and he can cry if he wants to over this whack pack poll.

clnurnberg on September 10, 2012 at 6:12 PM

So slick Willie steps up and lies for an hour, followed by Captain Kickass doing his usual pander to the base, and now he’s got a BOUNCE out of that? His favorable ratings have gone UP? BASED ON WHAT????

W. T. F., over.

Purple Fury on September 10, 2012 at 6:05 PM

That’s my question – and as such I would say that has to be the thread winner.

Chip on September 10, 2012 at 6:13 PM

The only way to make those numbers make sense is if the sample of likely voters skews sharply Democratic, which seems improbable, and if the sample of independents here is minuscule.

Exactly right.

The polls at this point are skewed beyond all recognition. Just a week ago, PPP had a poll where Dems were 47% of the split. And Independents were 4%. The Independents went for Romney by over 60%. But at 4%, that’s not going to do much. Not only that, but they then pick the age group that is best for Obama and bump that up. If all that doesn’t work, they bring up the number of undecided at the expense of R split. PPP is so bad that a poll from MI recently showed women going for Romeny by 54% while men were going for Obama contrary to earlier trend including the trend everywhere else in the nation.

This is not new. They’ve done it against Hillary in 2008. They’ve done it against McCain. They did it in the WI recall. They’re doing it now against Romney. The polls will skew even worse until two weeks before the election when the pollsters want to claim credibility (that’s no longer necessary for pollsters though).

They do this over and over. It wouldn’t be so shameful if the DRI splits and reducing the Independents to 4% weren’t so excessive.

MrX on September 10, 2012 at 6:14 PM

People are too stupid to realize he’s making the same speech from 2008. I know people are saying we deserve who we elect but shouldn’t there be life boats on this sinking ship the U.S.S. Stupid.

Cindy Munford on September 10, 2012 at 6:06 PM

Reagan convinced people that only they themselves could get themselves out of poverty.

Right now, Obama has the people convinced that only Government can get them out of poverty.

The voters of the Reagan Generation remembered what a work ethic was. This generation is entitlement laden from birth.

I predict doom.

portlandon on September 10, 2012 at 6:14 PM

I took a poll in my household.

100 percent for Romney.

gerrym51 on September 10, 2012 at 6:07 PM

Same here. Though I readily admit oversampling conservatives to Marxists 5-0.

Kataklysmic on September 10, 2012 at 6:14 PM

The CNN poll is totally bogus. It does not publish the internals. But look at this

Head to Head among independents
Romney 54 Barry 40

When Gary Johnson is included, Independent votes are splitted this way

Romney 46
Barry 40
Johnson 8

And Republicans vote 96% for Romney and 97% of Dems vote for Barry in that poll. With such a split in order to get a final tally of Barry 52 and Romney 35. There has to be an extremely high overweight for Democrats and under-representation of R and I.

bayview on September 10, 2012 at 6:14 PM

I may have to drop out of this site and watching the news until Nov. 7th. I feel so low these past few days. :(

ThePrez on September 10, 2012 at 6:14 PM

So Obama has, for all intents and purposes, 100% of Democrats, Romney has 100% of Republicans, Romney’s ahead by 14% among independents… and that translates to a six-point lead for Obama?

Yeah, okay, CNN. Whatever you say. Sure.

Hayabusa on September 10, 2012 at 6:14 PM

I just conducted an informal poll here in ohio: Romney-66%, Obama-33%.

So there. It’s inevitable.

darkegop on September 10, 2012 at 6:15 PM

When will America figure out that Bill Clinton is not running for President of the United States this year???

Varchild on September 10, 2012 at 6:15 PM

Obviously the composition of CNN’s sample of likely voters has changed, although because they never publish their partisan splits, there’s no way to tell by how much exactly.

Some polling agencies deliberately manufacture a bounce for the Democrats by see-sawing the partisan weighting before and after the convention.

Count to 10 on September 10, 2012 at 6:15 PM

Based on skewed sampling and a heartwarming desire to keep Barry from knowing the truth til after election day. And even then, they’ll use this fleabag poll as evidence of “fraud”. Such pathos

clnurnberg on September 10, 2012 at 6:15 PM

portlandon on September 10, 2012 at 6:09 PM

Roasted pork tenderloin.

Cindy Munford on September 10, 2012 at 6:15 PM

I still believe this election won’t even be close.

These polls will be used as an excuse by the Regime and it’s “civilian defense corpse” (misspelling made on purpose so I can’t be accused of RAAAAACISM!) to start the violence.

ie: “It was STOLEN!”.

wildcat72 on September 10, 2012 at 6:15 PM

I swear that memo from Romney’s pollster was written directly at this blog.

I’ve never seen so many “sky is falling” posts in my life.

gophergirl on September 10, 2012 at 6:11 PM

I’m getting tired trying to argue this. I think it’s falling on deaf ears…

sandee on September 10, 2012 at 6:16 PM

Obama got a pretty good sized bump from that convention if you want to believe the polls. Even the likely-voter model from Rasmussen has him up 4 points (or is it now 6 points?)

This is despite the abortion and gay marriage-palooza that the DNC was. This is despite a terrible jobs report that came out Friday which shows that for every new job, there were 4 people that left the workforce. This is despite the fact that there are fewer people working as a percentage of the population than there has been in over 31 years. This is despite Obama’s lackluster speech at the convention. This is despite record deficits and debt. This is despite high gas and grocery prices. This is despite the terrible job that Obama has done so far.

What the heck is going on here? Well, aside from the absolute betrayal to facts by our mainstream press, facts that they candy-coat in covering for Obama, there is an ugliness in America that is quite real.

How can gay marriage, free abortion on demand, free birth control, subsidized electric cars and Turkey Sloppy Joes made by Michelle Obama be more important than certain financial Armageddon? Europe is on the brink, China is sounding the alarm right now. We have an overheated stock market and the proverbial excrement is about to hit the rotary ventilator.

I don’t get it, either.

Corporal Tunnel on September 10, 2012 at 6:16 PM

These polls are total bull$hit.

They will only be close to truthful within 10 days of the election, when the pollsters want to restore any sense of credibility after lying the entire cycle to depress/influence turnout.

It happens every election. Not saying Mitt will sweep all 57, but I cannot see any way he loses.

Rixon on September 10, 2012 at 6:16 PM

I’m ignoring polls for another week at least – master of my domain.

forest on September 10, 2012 at 6:17 PM

Meaningless. This was all scripted ahead of time. A ‘timely’ comeback after the DNC, and then an ‘unexpected’ tightening of the polls as we get closer to election day.

stefanite on September 10, 2012 at 6:17 PM

Everyone realizes this election will come down to the debates, right? It’s that simple.

And the debates will be in favor of Mitt because Obama cannot run and hide from his failed policies. Everything he has done for the last 3 1/2 years will be right there. He will not be able to filibuster the debate moderator. He will not be up there without opposition.

The debates will not be about 2 different sets of campaign promises and who’s promises are better. They will be a referendum on Obama’s first term.

Obama will lose the debates because reality is what it is.

ButterflyDragon on September 10, 2012 at 6:17 PM

To blame this on a Dem convention bounce is ludicrous. As we know, they had back to back conventions, and their bounces should cancel either other out. But no, the R convention was a dud.
What’s wrong? Romney. He is coming across as an untrustworthy opportunist that runs from the issues, that doesn’t stand for anything, an empty vessel. In the voters eyes he has ran away from immigration, gay marriage, his Medicare plan, his tax plan, whatelsenot. For instance, on gay marriage, even conservatives don’t know whether Romney’s position is that of just another “evolver.” No one knows what his position on gay marriage is. Clearly, Mitt is trying to ambiguate the situation on multiple fronts, and the voters know it, and they don’t like it one bit.

anotherJoe on September 10, 2012 at 6:17 PM

I will calculate the split based on the numbers.

MrX on September 10, 2012 at 6:17 PM

Roasted pork tenderloin.

Cindy Munford on September 10, 2012 at 6:15 PM

Burritos at Moe’s. I think. :)

22044 on September 10, 2012 at 6:17 PM

portlandon on September 10, 2012 at 6:14 PM

I’m trying to stay somewhere between my normal optimism and “Where have you been the last ten years, dumbazz?”. So would that be cautiously optimistic?

Cindy Munford on September 10, 2012 at 6:18 PM

Well on the surface this kind of sucks. But numbers like this will only make our team work harder!

scalleywag on September 10, 2012 at 6:18 PM

Are Americans stuck on stupid?

MisterPundit on September 10, 2012 at 6:04 PM

I’m not sure but we’ll find put on election day. Either way, you may want to stock up on ammo because no matter who wins, the debt situation is already at critical IMO. $16+ trillion debt, at least $100 trillion in unfunded liabilities for the entitlement programs…. the country is toast. It’s just a matter of when reality catches up with the economic illusion we’re living in now.

That is not to say I’m advocating for a collapse but seriously…. how do we realistically dig out of this hole? I don’t see how. Even with someone like Ryan on the ticket who seems to actually know math I just don’t see how the whole house of cards doesn’t come tumbling down.

Yakko77 on September 10, 2012 at 6:18 PM

Ain’t buying it. Was in Ohio July & August. Saw few Soetoro signs/stickers.

BHO Jonestown on September 10, 2012 at 6:18 PM

I may have to drop out of this site and watching the news until Nov. 7th. I feel so low these past few days. :(

ThePrez on September 10, 2012 at 6:14 PM

CNN, Gallup, MSNBC, PPP, all say: Mission Accomplished.

BettyRuth on September 10, 2012 at 6:19 PM

So the indies prefer R&R by 14 points and Obama still wins by 6?

I call BS

clnurnberg on September 10, 2012 at 6:07 PM

Ditto. Which means you have to expect turnout to be 8% in favor of Dems. and Indies to be somewhere in the single digits.

oldroy on September 10, 2012 at 6:19 PM

The FloatingRock Effect

In the CNN poll

Gary Johnson took 9 % of the votes when he was included.

1% of his 9 was from Republicans and the other 8% was from Independents. All those were taken from Romney. Inclusion of Johnson did not change any Democrat or Tndependent votes for Barry.

bayview on September 10, 2012 at 6:19 PM

Are Americans stuck on stupid?

MisterPundit on September 10, 2012 at 6:04 PM

Well, going by those competition shows where the viewers can vote, I would say yes. The best dancers, singers, etc. don’t usually win. The ones who people want to boink or who they feel sorry for usually do.

I used to ignore all of that, because different demohgraphics are involved and there are differences between reality TV and elections, but now I am not so sure. I have had several friends say that they feel bad for Obama and want to give him another chance like we were talking about a kid who struck out t baseball or something.

We live in a celebrity world where fame and feelings are everything and hard work and talent are nothing, so why shouldn’t that apply to the political world?

McDuck on September 10, 2012 at 6:19 PM

I guess we can not under estimate the promise of more free stuff…the American way? Nah. What happens when the producers quit producing?

d1carter on September 10, 2012 at 6:20 PM

Here’s the latest Bishop poll: I was at Cabela’s today and the gun counter was 5 people deep all the way across; I took a number at 62 and they were just then calling out number 42. As I waited my turn I saw the .223 shelves were picked over worse than a Zebra carcass on the African plains.

Bishop on September 10, 2012 at 6:20 PM

Well lets cut through all the jobber jabber and get to the point.

Even though Rasmussen confirms a 5 point Obama lead, he swing state polling shows NO Obama bounce at all. So what is happening? Obama is merely shoring up his base in states he was already going to win anyway. He can’t win CA twice but a surge in CA can affect the national polling.

How Rasmussen gets similar numbers to the MSM polls with their hard left sampling seems odd. Maybe someone who better understands statistics can help us out.

Anyway, national polling at this point is useless. Watch the swings states.

mitchellvii on September 10, 2012 at 6:20 PM

22044 on September 10, 2012 at 6:17 PM

My daughter loves Moe’s.

Cindy Munford on September 10, 2012 at 6:20 PM

Are Americans stuck on stupid?

MisterPundit on September 10, 2012 at 6:04 PM

Yes – how else do you explain this Obamahoax, the charlatanry repeated.

Maybe they are stuck on insane since they want the same, expecting different results.

Schadenfreude on September 10, 2012 at 6:20 PM

The top of page 5 has the sample rate, and by my calculations democrats were OVER SAMPLED by PLUS ELEVEN, with error rate of +/- 3.5%.

All that spells ‘dead cat’ to me.

locomotivebreath1901 on September 10, 2012 at 6:21 PM

I’m trying to stay somewhere between my normal optimism and “Where have you been the last ten years, dumbazz?”. So would that be cautiously optimistic?

Cindy Munford on September 10, 2012 at 6:18 PM

LOL. I tried to stay optimistic, but by the end of GOP convention I was getting an uneasy feeling about our chances.

Romney/Ryan ’12!!!!

portlandon on September 10, 2012 at 6:21 PM

How can gay marriage, free abortion on demand, free birth control, subsidized electric cars and Turkey Sloppy Joes made by Michelle Obama be more important than certain financial Armageddon? Europe is on the brink, China is sounding the alarm right now. We have an overheated stock market and the proverbial excrement is about to hit the rotary ventilator.

Corporal Tunnel on September 10, 2012 at 6:16 PM

And how will voting for Romney in any way change that?

Romney is not radically different than Obama and the GOP isn’t all that different than the Democrats. You are assuming a choice that doesn’t exist.

That is why Romney isn’t doing as well as the events suggest he should be doing. He isn’t really an alternative, just a differing shade of the same thing that got us here.

sharrukin on September 10, 2012 at 6:22 PM

Everyone realizes this election will come down to the debates, right? It’s that simple.

The election will come down to the only poll that counts, ballots.
I don’t believe that Obama got anything close to a bounce, even Modo hated him. And when you lose the people who think the sun rises and sets in your pants, you can’t have impressed the rest of the public much.

The poll makes no sense any more than the Dukaksis up over HW by double digits did. Back then the pollsters closed the gap before election day in order to not look too stupid. They’ll do the same this time, but still act shocked when boy wonder loses.

clnurnberg on September 10, 2012 at 6:22 PM

Here are the reasons Romney will win BIG.

1. the economy sucks.
2. the current polls oversample dems.
3. the wilder effect means those who are being polled are still saying they’ll vote for obama.
4. voter enthusiams favors dems.
5. romney has a huge money advantage (don’t forget his own money)
6. obama shot his wad this summer, in both money and arguments, without achieving anything more than a tie
7. romney has a treasure trove of info yet to use in ads. and thanks to a corrupt media, the apathetic independents are going to hear all this stuff for the very first time: bitter clingers, solyndra, electricity prices will necessarily skyrocket, you didn’t build that, born alive baby law, cut deficit in half, problem with gas prices is that went up too quickly, promise energy independence/keystone, etc., etc.

darkegop on September 10, 2012 at 6:22 PM

As far as I’m concerned, all this poll business does is make me want to give Romney more money, volunteer at my local Republican office, and do everything I can to change the Obama fans minds. I might as well- I’m not going to want to have anything to do with them if they vote for him, and he wins.

BettyRuth on September 10, 2012 at 6:22 PM

portlandon on September 10, 2012 at 6:14 PM

I’m trying to stay somewhere between my normal optimism and “Where have you been the last ten years, dumbazz?”. So would that be cautiously optimistic?

Cindy Munford on September 10, 2012 at 6:18 PM

I want Mitt to win. Now, its time for him to show us that he wants to win.

Time to kick it into gear, Mitt.

kingsjester on September 10, 2012 at 6:23 PM

That’s why no one should put any stock in their polls.

cozmo on September 10, 2012 at 6:04 PM

Yep pure horse manure. They are desperate to depress turnout. Guess what? It ain’t gonna work.

They see that long stretch of losses going back a couple years now and they are in full panic mode.

dogsoldier on September 10, 2012 at 6:23 PM

Via Ace, master of his domain:

Flashback, September 14, 2000: “Why Bush Is Toast”

stefanite on September 10, 2012 at 6:24 PM

4. GOP, i meant

darkegop on September 10, 2012 at 6:24 PM

The problem is this: Bogus poll like this is reported as it is by newspapers and other TV network without any analysis of the validity or the data bias. It is concocted to paint a made up picture of a Barry tsunami in the minds of the public.

bayview on September 10, 2012 at 6:24 PM

This explains it all.

Schadenfreude on September 10, 2012 at 6:24 PM

I want Mitt to win. Now, its time for him to show us that he wants to win.

Time to kick it into gear, Mitt.

kingsjester on September 10, 2012 at 6:23 PM

If he does will we hear about it?We don’t have the media. I guess it will all come down to the debates and his ads.

sandee on September 10, 2012 at 6:25 PM

Roasted pork tenderloin.

Cindy Munford on September 10, 2012 at 6:15 PM

MMmmmmmm. That sounds wonderful.

I have Chicken Ole’ casserole waiting for me in the crock pot at home.

My stomach is growling thinking about it.

portlandon on September 10, 2012 at 6:25 PM

Then and now

Schadenfreude on September 10, 2012 at 6:25 PM

I swear that memo from Romney’s pollster was written directly at this blog.

gophergirl on September 10, 2012 at 6:11 PM

Then good for the captain, AP and rest. Hot Gas is going places.

cozmo on September 10, 2012 at 6:26 PM

Romney is not radically different than Obama and the GOP isn’t all that different than the Democrats. You are assuming a choice that doesn’t exist.

That is why Romney isn’t doing as well as the events suggest he should be doing. He isn’t really an alternative, just a differing shade of the same thing that got us here.

sharrukin on September 10, 2012 at 6:22 PM

Meh.

Romney has an excellent track record of bringing back losing companies and the Salt Lake City Olympics. Yeah, bringing back the USA will be a tougher job, but Romney is far more qualified to be the Moses that leads us to the promised land than is the jug-eared Chicago mobster.

Corporal Tunnel on September 10, 2012 at 6:26 PM

Okay, I’ve said this before but apparently it didn’t take. Without know the EXACT internals of the poll, you cannot make a good analysis of the top line trends.

For example, we don’t really, “KNOW,” if CNN asked more democrats this week than last. Skew a poll with enough democrats and a poll will start showing you losing age groups you would otherwise be winning in reality.

That may or may not be what happening here, but without detailed internals we cannot, “know.” So we shouldn’t infer detailed trends.

We can infer things like, where Romney stands with Independents, with Republicans, etc. Anything more complicated then that is iffy, since we won’t be able to know if its an artifact of the pollsters methodology or actual reality.

WolvenOne on September 10, 2012 at 6:27 PM

It’s hard to poll well against Santa Claus, especially when your message is “hey, all those gifts he’s giving you aren’t paid for and are going to have to be returned”…

Strike Hornet on September 10, 2012 at 6:27 PM

portlandon on September 10, 2012 at 6:25 PM

I’m hoping my bride will make her homemade Chicken Alfredo when she gets off work. She uses Southwest seasoning on the chicken.

C’mon Mitt! Hitch up your pants and charge!

kingsjester on September 10, 2012 at 6:27 PM

Here’s the latest Bishop poll: I was at Cabela’s today and the gun counter was 5 people deep all the way across; I took a number at 62 and they were just then calling out number 42. As I waited my turn I saw the .223 shelves were picked over worse than a Zebra carcass on the African plains.

Bishop on September 10, 2012 at 6:20 PM

It was that way at the Cabela’s in Omaha the days after he won in 2008 when I picked up a H&K USP .45 and some ammo. From what I understand, gun sales if nothing else have been doing pretty well ever since.

Yakko77 on September 10, 2012 at 6:28 PM

They had us in a panic and then CNN blows the MSMs cover with this obvious BS. 2012 is not going to look like 2008.

El_Terrible on September 10, 2012 at 6:28 PM

I hope the Defense workers who are about to lose their jobs are likely voters. Thousands will know before the elections unless something happens to prevent it.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81007.html

Philly on September 10, 2012 at 6:28 PM

anotherJoe on September 10, 2012 at 6:17 PM

Take your Romney hatred and shove it. Romney beat ur candidate, so if you don’t want to vote for him, go vote for Obama. Nonsense.

Chudi on September 10, 2012 at 6:28 PM

Are Americans stuck on stupid?

MisterPundit on September 10, 2012 at 6:04 PM

Surprise, surprise….

jimver on September 10, 2012 at 6:29 PM

I’ve come to the conclusion that the Dem’s game is to have enough “polls” supporting their candidate so they can claim they are leading in the hope of convincing undecided voters that they should vote for a “winner.”

Truth is no obstacle when comes to this group.

EdmundBurke247 on September 10, 2012 at 6:29 PM

Based on the numbers, I did a Gaussian elimination and the DRI split for the CNN poll is:

D/R/I
44/34/22

A +10 Dem advantage.

MrX on September 10, 2012 at 6:30 PM

anotherJoe on September 10, 2012 at 6:17 PM

No. Blame this on bad polls. When in your lifetime has a Republican had anything other than ranging from a sizable deficit to at best a very very small lead in the polls (and only going into election week)?

Dukakis ahead by 17% and lost by 8% – 25% error?

Carter ahead by 8 or 10 and lost by 10% – 20% error?

Was anybody bitching and crying any less about Reagan and Bush than they are about Romney in those elections?

This is just stagecraft, and many people seem to be falling for it.

oldroy on September 10, 2012 at 6:30 PM

So 52 percent of voters think less than 100k new jobs and over 300 k people leaving the work force is awesome?

I think they are putting something in the water supply./

CW on September 10, 2012 at 6:30 PM

In what world does a CNN poll that skews sharply democrat improbable?

BKeyser on September 10, 2012 at 6:30 PM

kingsjester on September 10, 2012 at 6:27 PM

Homemade vegetable soup and baked potatoes…and of course cornbread. Finals of the US Open.

d1carter on September 10, 2012 at 6:30 PM

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