CNN poll: Obama 52, Romney 46 among likely voters

posted at 6:01 pm on September 10, 2012 by Allahpundit

The race was even among likelies in CNN’s poll after the GOP convention, so here’s further confirmation that O has indeed gotten a bounce. (Of particular note, his favorable rating rose to 57 percent, his highest in two years.) Three major caveats, though. One: While there’s a nice bounce among likely voters, there’s virtually no bounce among registereds. Last week O led Romney by seven points among that group; this week he leads by eight. Obviously the composition of CNN’s sample of likely voters has changed, although because they never publish their partisan splits, there’s no way to tell by how much exactly.

Speaking of which, number two: Romney trails overall by six points while leading among independents … by 14?

The only way to make those numbers make sense is if the sample of likely voters skews sharply Democratic, which seems improbable, and if the sample of independents here is minuscule. That wouldn’t be unusual for CNN, if so: Just like last week, it looks like they’re pressing hard to get self-identified indies to identify themselves as leaners one way or the other and then reserving the indie column for the few remaining “true independents.” With a small enough sample, Romney could theoretically lead O by 50 points among this group and still trail overall.

Three: There sure does seem to be a pronounced age split in this poll:

That’s right in line with conventional wisdom — O leads big among younger voters, Romney leads among older — but note that it’s not young adult who are really driving Obama’s advantage here. It’s the middle-aged, ages 35 to 49, that are decisive to his overall margin. Not sure how to explain that dramatic effect. It’s always tempting to resort to Medicare politics to account for sharp age disparities but it’s not obvious to me why near-seniors would be fairly evenly split while slightly younger voters would tilt sharply. Maybe the Democrats’ culture-war convention played well with them? But middle-aged adults tend to be pro-life on balance. Hmmm.

Lots of oddness to O’s bounciness, then — although, bearing that in mind, I still don’t like the look of this trend, especially in light of the last post:

This one strikes me as bad too, although there’s nothing surprising about it:

Romney’s been banking since day one on winning an “Obama vs. Not Obama” election, but it’s easier to imagine a race like that ending in a semi-landslide for the challenger than in a narrow victory, which increasingly appears to be Mitt’s best-case scenario. The “Not Obama” voters in Mitt’s column will be out in force no matter what, whereas O’s support among pro-Obama voters depends, I think, to some extent on how the polls look down the stretch. If it’s close, he has a stronger pitch to “unlikely voters” who like him to haul their asses down to the polling place on election day and put him over the top then he does if the race looks like a lost cause circa mid-October. But then, this is really just another way of saying that Romney needs to do more to make the pro-Romney case among undecideds rather than just the anti-Obama case, which is already as clear cut as can be. That’s what the convention was supposed to be about, and per the trendlines here, evidently it did some good. Enough good, though?


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In other words, you want to say I’m a liberal O-bot in general, but can’t pull any specifics outta yer ass at the moment.

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:36 PM

Calling people Nazis is what O-bots do. And you do it, too.

Gelsomina on September 10, 2012 at 8:34 PM

This is what all these polls (including Rasmussen) are telling us: 5 to 10 percent of voters are looking for any excuse or reason not to vote for a guy they don’t like: Mitt Romney. Sure they believe that Obama has done a poor job the past 3 1/2 years. They don’t want to vote for him but are turned off by Mitt Romney, a used car salesman that believe in nothing and will wear any tie to win. What Bill Clinton made them realize is that Romney would have not done any better than Obama (his record in Massachusetts said so).
At this point, it’s a solid 45-45 between Romney and Obama. There are about 8% of voters that will decide the Election and they are all looking for any excuse to not vote for either candidate (they would vote for Bill Clinton in a hurry!). In the end, they will most likely vote for the guy they like despite his failures: Obama…unless there is another economic collapse like the one that did McCain/Palin.

The Republican Establishment ALWAYS plays with the head of conservatives. They use MONEY to always nominate their moderate RINO candidate then make the election a matter of Life and death to get conservatives in line behind the unwanted and unpopular candidate. They do it ALL THE TIME and it ALWAYS works! Nothing will change unless conservatives one day say: It’s enough; we are willing to lose this one to change the party for good. And Obama win may well achieve that. Yes another 3 years of Obama will be bad but how better will be 4 years of Mitt Romney? What will Mitt do better than Obama with a deadlocked Senate? Neither Obama nor Romney will get ANYTHING done the next 4 years thanks to a 50/50 Senate. None of them will repeal Obamacare; either of them will probably raise taxes for the wealthy and keep increasing the deficits with tax cuts for the middle class. If the GOP retains the house and closes on the Senate, Obama will be IRRELEVANT if he wins…Just like Romney will if the Senate is divided.

If a Romney loss means the Tea Party taking over and Sarah Palin leading, I am all for it…I don’t trust Mitt at all. The guy is no conservative and would be a huge deception anyway

jules on September 10, 2012 at 8:38 PM

Regarding an Ohio poll:

You see, that PP poll was taken from a +4 Democrat sample. Right there the poll is hurting credibility wise. But dig a little deeper. That poll was also +9 for women sampled. That’s a huge gap for Ohio. +9 women polled over men? Cross check that data. You realize in Ohio women make up 51.2% of the population. This PP poll tries to alter that # so that it reflects women make up nearly 60% of Ohio population. Which is way off and totally breaks apart the poll’s credibility. Why would they do that? Because Obama is polling better with women and Romney is polling better for men. So cook the poll right off with a nearly 10 point advantage of women polled. That alone would give Obama another 3-4% advantage in the final approval #s. So you got a +4 Democrat sample. And a heavily lopsided women sample that together accounts for about +8 favoring Barack Obama. So compare that to the headline they used for the poll: Obama up by 5 in Ohio.

In a polling sample that favored Barack Obama by nearly 10 points, the best he can do is a 5 point advantage. Bluff called. We send back a revised interpretation of the poll with a “Greetings from Ohio” postcard attached.

Mutnodjmet on September 10, 2012 at 8:38 PM

I don’t remember the exact occasion,
ddrintn

Grab a bottle of Jergens and one of your Palin posters, and I’m sure it will come to you.

xblade on September 10, 2012 at 8:40 PM

The “bounce”–pretty much in its entirety–is because of Bill Clinton. Unless Obama wants to keep trotting out Bill to win the election for him, that “bounce” will fade.

The election is ages and ages away in terms of the short attention spans common to today’s voters. Warm fuzzies from a rousing speech are easily forgotten. Repeatedly having to pay $4 at the pump and daily having to walk on eggshells at work for fear of finding oneself unemployed in this terrible economy–not so much.

butterflies and puppies on September 10, 2012 at 8:43 PM

They can dish it out, but can’t take it.

They forget how disgusting they were during the primaries.

Suddenly they have standards?

portlandon on September 10, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Look, I’ve been called a Nazi by the haters since I first mentioned the name Romney. So don’t play the martyr.

Gelsomina on September 10, 2012 at 8:45 PM

Is D/R/I the universe. I have seen polls with those three groups adding up to less than 100%.

The War Planner on September 10, 2012 at 7:22 PM

You can tell by the total final percentage. It adds up to 101%, likely due to rounding. So it is definitely 100%. From the table above, 52% + 46% + 2% + 1% = 101%. The final total would not add up to 100% if the DRI did not also add up to 100%.

MrX on September 10, 2012 at 8:45 PM

The “bounce”–pretty much in its entirety–is because of Bill Clinton. Unless Obama wants to keep trotting out Bill to win the election for him, that “bounce” will fade.

butterflies and puppies on September 10, 2012 at 8:43 PM

I agree that Bubba’s speech is the primary reason for the bounce.

And I saw a new Obama TV ad today that featured Willie. I immediately wondered what Hillary! thinks about this. Does she really want Billy Jeff going all out to help Teh One win?

farsighted on September 10, 2012 at 8:56 PM

If a Romney loss means the Tea Party taking over and Sarah Palin leading, I am all for it…I don’t trust Mitt at all. The guy is no conservative and would be a huge deception anyway

jules on September 10, 2012 at 8:38 PM

You’re a fool. What makes you think that a totally unfettered d’ohbama will allow The TEA Party to become more powerful than it is now? For that matter, what makes you think that there will even be an election in 2016 if d’ohbama isn’t ousted this year?
You seem to think that everything will just slide along as normal through another four years of bho…and that Palin will automatically be elected (should she decide to run).
You’re living in a fantasy world, jules.

Whether you like him or not, you’d better vote for Romney if you even want to see an election in ’16. Because, no matter what you and the rest of the ABR toads think, Romney is about 10,000 times better than lil barry. He may not be the Conservative that we all wanted…but he’s the one we got. And we aren’t just playing little political gotcha games here. This election is a fight for the very survival of the nation. D’ohbama wants to see America brought to her knees before the world. Romney does not! And if you can’t see that, then you aren’t worth much.

Solaratov on September 10, 2012 at 8:57 PM

To quote 25% of Hot Air’s captions,

Surprisingly!

Constantine on September 10, 2012 at 9:04 PM

Come on, put up or shut up.

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:33 PM

If you act like a democRAT and use their terms and tactics, then you are – for all intents and purposes – a democrat. And just as leftist and in the tank for lil barry as they.

Solaratov on September 10, 2012 at 9:06 PM

Whether you like him or not, you’d better vote for Romney if you even want to see an election in ’16. Because, no matter what you and the rest of the ABR toads think, Romney is about 10,000 times better than lil barry. He may not be the Conservative that we all wanted…but he’s the one we got. And we aren’t just playing little political gotcha games here. This election is a fight for the very survival of the nation. D’ohbama wants to see America brought to her knees before the world. Romney does not! And if you can’t see that, then you aren’t worth much.

You are talking like a true RINO! Scaring conservatives into making them believe that not voting for the RINO candidate will lead to the destruction of the country. Just how will Obama destroy the country in 4 years? Will the House led Republican or divided Senate allow it? Presidents don’t make laws, the sign them…War if the only thing President can start.
Just how will Romney change the path of the nation without the cooperation the divided Senate? Hello???

No, I don’t expect Sarah Palin to be President but I expect her to LEAD to Tea Party into taking over the Republican Party…There is NOTHING Obama can do about that.

And there will DEFINITELY be a 2016… We had election after the great depression, you know…

jules on September 10, 2012 at 9:10 PM

You are talking like a true RINO! Scaring conservatives into making them believe that not voting for the RINO candidate will lead to the destruction of the country. Just how will Obama destroy the country in 4 years? Will the House led Republican or divided Senate allow it? Presidents don’t make laws, the sign them…War if the only thing President can start.
Just how will Romney change the path of the nation without the cooperation the divided Senate? Hello???

No, I don’t expect Sarah Palin to be President but I expect her to LEAD to Tea Party into taking over the Republican Party…There is NOTHING Obama can do about that.

And there will DEFINITELY be a 2016… We had election after the great depression, you know…

jules on September 10, 2012 at 9:10 PM

Jules, girl, did you not read what I wrote above? A Donk win in 2012, and we will have la amnestia, we will have dead people voting, we will have fraud out the wazoo, we will have lists of GOP and Tea Party donors published, that they may face retaliation at work and in their personal lives… The only reason they didn’t pull this crud in 2012 was because they were caught flat-footed. People were supposed to be so grateful for 0bamacare and socialism that they’d overwhelmingly vote in a one-party state without them having to get rough. They know they are just gonna have to get rough if they survive this election. One man, one vote, one time. Sarah won’t save the country, they will find a way to throw her in jail.

This is the culmination of 60 plus years of Soviet planning, that tooled on along after the Soviets’ demise. They have to abide by the 2012 decision, and it is our last chance to stop them. If you want to bag on Romney for being a damn dirty RINO, undermine him once he’s in office. The Donks are hopefully out of scary people by 2016. Sheesh.

Sekhmet on September 10, 2012 at 9:23 PM

Karl Rove was on BOR tonight,and was asked how he felt about the recent polls showing Barry has a big post convention bounce. This CNN poll is specifically mentioned. Karl Rove did not address the false premise and point out the deficiency of the poll. He just said, the bounce is in line with expected magnitude of convention, and may just be temporary. Why even allow the meme to exist, he is a number guy, why not point out the suspicious skew?

bayview on September 10, 2012 at 9:34 PM

Jules, girl, did you not read what I wrote above? Sarah won’t save the country, they will find a way to throw her in jail.

This is the culmination of 60 plus years of Soviet planning, that tooled on along after the Soviets’ demise. They have to abide by the 2012 decision, and it is our last chance to stop them. If you want to bag on Romney for being a damn dirty RINO, undermine him once he’s in office. The Donks are hopefully out of scary people by 2016. Sheesh.

You really believe all that crap? LOL! Sure they will put Sarah Palin to Jail LOLOLOL!

Where I stands, November will good for conservatives. If Obama loses, that will be GREAT…If Romney loses, the Tea Party will take over the GOP and that will be WONDERFUL too…

jules on September 10, 2012 at 9:37 PM

Karl Rove was on BOR tonight,and was asked how he felt about the recent polls showing Barry has a big post convention bounce. This CNN poll is specifically mentioned. Karl Rove did not address the false premise and point out the deficiency of the poll. He just said, the bounce is in line with expected magnitude of convention, and may just be temporary. Why even allow the meme to exist, he is a number guy, why not point out the suspicious skew?

bayview on September 10, 2012 at 9:34 PM

He’s no numbers guy. He’s just a Bush family crony with connections to some big time GOP contributors.

bgibbs1000 on September 10, 2012 at 9:41 PM

No, I don’t expect Sarah Palin to be President but I expect her to LEAD to Tea Party into taking over the Republican Party…There is NOTHING Obama can do about that.

And there will DEFINITELY be a 2016… We had election after the great depression, you know…

jules on September 10, 2012 at 9:10 PM

+100

idesign on September 10, 2012 at 9:56 PM

These polls depress me.
This thread depresses me even more.
Karl Rove depresses me.
BUT . . . the thought of another 4 years of B. Hussein O’Comrade . . . is the most depressing of all.

So . . . suck it up Hot Air-rians . . . stop sniping at each other . . . calling each other RINOS and fools . . . listen to Mark Levin . . . donate to Romney / RYAN (!) and work to save the country! NOW . . . not four years from now . . .

We have 56 days! ((Insert “Patton” intro here!))

rebuzz on September 10, 2012 at 10:07 PM

I guess I just don’t understand….How depressing. If Obama can win re-election in this economy we are more screwed than we realized.

shar61 on September 10, 2012 at 10:34 PM

I guess I just don’t understand….How depressing. If Obama can win re-election in this economy we are more screwed than we realized.

shar61 on September 10, 2012 at 10:34 PM

Obama is not going to win re-election. The reality on the ground and the math is very much against him… On elections Day all this would be clear to everyone…

mnjg on September 10, 2012 at 10:48 PM

Yea, you morons keep forgetting about the supreme court. If Obama wins reelection its an instant commie court.

BrianVII on September 10, 2012 at 10:55 PM

Yea, you morons keep forgetting about the supreme court. If Obama wins reelection its an instant commie court.

BrianVII on September 10, 2012 at 10:55 PM

John Roberts

sharrukin on September 10, 2012 at 10:57 PM

Speaking of which, number two: Romney trails overall by six points while leading among independents … by 14?

I smell a rat.

Terrye on September 10, 2012 at 11:03 PM

The Republican Establishment ALWAYS plays with the head of conservatives. They use MONEY to always nominate their moderate RINO candidate then make the election a matter of Life and death to get conservatives in line behind the unwanted and unpopular candidate. They do it ALL THE TIME and it ALWAYS works! Nothing will change unless conservatives one day say: It’s enough; we are willing to lose this one to change the party for good. And Obama win may well achieve that. Yes another 3 years of Obama will be bad but how better will be 4 years of Mitt Romney? What will Mitt do better than Obama with a deadlocked Senate? Neither Obama nor Romney will get ANYTHING done the next 4 years thanks to a 50/50 Senate. None of them will repeal Obamacare; either of them will probably raise taxes for the wealthy and keep increasing the deficits with tax cuts for the middle class. If the GOP retains the house and closes on the Senate, Obama will be IRRELEVANT if he wins…Just like Romney will if the Senate is divided.

If a Romney loss means the Tea Party taking over and Sarah Palin leading, I am all for it…I don’t trust Mitt at all. The guy is no conservative and would be a huge deception anyway

jules on September 10, 2012 at 8:38 PM

Exactly. And let’s face it, most Mittwits would happily vote for Obama if there were an “R” after his name. They’re party loyalists first and foremost. They could care less how liberal their candidate happens to be.

Farenht451 on September 10, 2012 at 11:21 PM

Anybody else sick of this “Derp, derp, bern da GOP down, Sarahz not da nomineeez” business? Shewt, Sarah herself isn’t down with that, and she’d slap you silly if you proposed that to her in real life. HINT: That guy on your fansite named daxelrod who helped come up with this new plan? His agenda is not what you think it is….

Sekhmet on September 10, 2012 at 11:27 PM

John Roberts turned something that needed 60 votes to repeal to only needing 51. Are you seriously comparing Roberts to the likes of Kagan and Ginsberg? Id take a John Roberts over leftist tools like Kagan any day. You can’t have perfection. Why not go vote for Obama and get it over with.

BrianVII on September 11, 2012 at 12:16 AM

Anybody else sick of this “Derp, derp, bern da GOP down, Sarahz not da nomineeez” business?

Sekhmet on September 10, 2012 at 11:27 PM

I love Sarah and what she has done for our country. Have always been a huge fan and defended her staunchly on this very site.

Sarah isn’t the nominee. Neither is Ron Paul. Neither, are choices in this election. United we stand, divided we fall. SOGOTP.

A starving man doesn’t turn down “half” a loaf of bread. While we all love a good filet minion, sometimes the choices in life are “liver and onions” or “round steak.” Round steak is looking pretty good right now.

BruthaMan on September 11, 2012 at 12:21 AM

John Roberts turned something that needed 60 votes to repeal to only needing 51. Are you seriously comparing Roberts to the likes of Kagan and Ginsberg? Id take a John Roberts over leftist tools like Kagan any day. You can’t have perfection. Why not go vote for Obama and get it over with.

BrianVII on September 11, 2012 at 12:16 AM

You are one of those. John Roberts was a super-genius and did us all a favor by saving Obamacare! I guess we should also thank Olympia Snowe for helping Obamacare out of committee?

The Charlie Sheen school of Republican win?

sharrukin on September 11, 2012 at 12:23 AM

I’m sure this poll is wrong, just like the others that show Obambi ahead. Of course, the ones that show Mittens as being ahead or tied are accurate.

Dr. ZhivBlago on September 11, 2012 at 1:11 AM

Polls that don’t show their crosstabs should at this point just be disregarded. Do you accept what Soledad O’Brien says at face value? Of course not, if you are not an idiot. Why then take CNN’s word on polling?

I’ve said all year long the polls will bounce around, and there will be good and bad weeks along the way. So far, I’ve been 100% accurate.

Adjoran on September 11, 2012 at 1:30 AM

If you want to see how much you agree with Romney and how much you agree with Obama, take this quiz. For those who think they are practically the same, well, you should agree with each of them by about the same percent then.

http://polipundit.com/?p=41875

VorDaj on September 11, 2012 at 4:22 AM

It’s pretty obvious that polls are now being used to sway, rather than obtain, public opinion. I guess the question that should really be asked is, if these polls are accurate, what changed. The Democrats surely couldn’t have gotten many votes with their plea for more abortions and free birth control pills. Was it Bill Clinton? Unlikely!

Thinking back to 2010, this is an electorate that probably avoids pollsters but will show up at the polls. I screen my calls at home and if I don’t recognize the number, or what the number says is vague, I don’t answer.

bflat879 on September 11, 2012 at 7:39 AM

This new CNN/ORC survey, unlike many other analyzed, not only over-samples Democratic voters, but also massively under-samples independent voters, to produce a result more favorable to Barack Obama. This survey’s sample includes 397 registered Republicans and 441 registered Democrats. But the survey included a total of 822 registered voters, leaving only 37 independent voters at most. The survey clearly under-sampled independent and Republican voters.

http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-would-lead-eight-unskewed-data-from-newest-cnn-orc-poll

It’s going to be hard to keep stopping by HotGas with Allah going full eeyore mode for the duration.

gaius on September 11, 2012 at 8:21 AM

It’s going to be a blowout by Romney and none of these skewed polls will make one iota diiference.

dddave on September 11, 2012 at 8:34 AM

It’s going to be a blowout by Romney and none of these skewed polls will make one iota diiference.

dddave on September 11, 2012 at 8:34 AM
——-

“Until I find a poll that shows Romney ahead, all polls are meaningless”
-dddave

Dave Rywall on September 11, 2012 at 8:42 AM

Only one poll matters and is on Nov 6. All these skewed polls are meaningless and probably explain why Mondale was ahead of Reagan.

Ta111 on September 11, 2012 at 8:46 AM

If this is the way polls are being weighted, then when polled (and I am polled frequently),I will be a Democrat,female, union member, who voted last time for Obama but will vote in this election for Romney.

diogenes on September 11, 2012 at 8:46 AM

It’s going to be a blowout by Romney and none of these skewed polls will make one iota diiference.

dddave on September 11, 2012 at 8:34 AM
——-

“Until I find a poll that shows Romney ahead, all polls are meaningless”
-dddave

Dave Rywall on September 11, 2012 at 8:42 AM

Even the polls that show Romney up by 1 or 2 are wrong! Ha!!!

dddave on September 11, 2012 at 8:53 AM

ABC News/Washington News Poll:

Obama/Romney Even Among Likely Voters

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/obama-and-romney-close-in-poll-among-likely-voters/2012/09/10/e57318ea-fb79-11e1-b153-218509a954e1_print.html

sentinelrules on September 11, 2012 at 9:01 AM

I joined Free Republic in October of 2008. The Kool-Aid Kids over there were sputtering nonsense about McCain’s internals had him beating The Messiah in PA! Some guy was constantly commenting about how he had access to the McCain internal polling numbers. I told them over and over that anyone who thought Obama was going to take PA was a lunatic.

After about two weeks the moderator removed me and has blocked my commenting ever since (said I was an obvious plant from the Obama camp). So now FR can do what Clint said Romney couldn’t do to himself.

So, the moral of the story, let’s be honest about the polling. This time, SO FAR, I see evidence that Romney is polling light (generally). I think his numbers are better than what the polls are saying. BUT, that could change.

The debates will make or break Romney. I also wouldn’t get too cocky about Ryan over Biden. The media will try to make expectations about Biden so low that they’ll declare a victory the night of the debate because Ryan “failed to deliver a knock-out blow.”

senrex on September 11, 2012 at 9:16 AM

The debates will make or break Romney. I also wouldn’t get too cocky about Ryan over Biden. The media will try to make expectations about Biden so low that they’ll declare a victory the night of the debate because Ryan “failed to deliver a knock-out blow.”

senrex on September 11, 2012 at 9:16 AM

LOL

I expect Biden to deliver a left uppercut to himself in the first five minutes of the debate and will be down for the count for the remainder!!!

dddave on September 11, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Can’t we get just ONE honest poll? Either that, or require that the broadcast of these polls include the BREAKDOWN of those questioned.

Sure the Media online include LINKS to the breakdown, but most just lead with the results, the numbers be damned.

After my day of depression yesterday upon reading the latest Obama Bounce Polls,I signed up to make phone calls for Romney in my comunity.

I feel a little better today….

Gadsden

GadsdenRattlers on September 11, 2012 at 9:25 AM

Oh gosh, more bounce obsession! What do pollsters know about who’s gonna vote, who isn’t and how? If they could reliably predict the future they wouldn’t be lame-a$$ pollsters!

stukinIL4now on September 11, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Obviously the composition of CNN’s sample of likely voters has changed, although because they never publish their partisan splits, there’s no way to tell by how much exactly.

DTA! Rush warned us yesterday that the msm would do everything they could to drag their guy over the finish line. We already know they all lie at every turn. Why should we trust any poll. Hang tough! Nov 6th is almost here.

Kissmygrits on September 11, 2012 at 9:34 AM

I joined Free Republic in October of 2008. The Kool-Aid Kids over there were sputtering nonsense about McCain’s internals had him beating The Messiah in PA! …

After about two weeks the moderator removed me and has blocked my commenting ever since (said I was an obvious plant from the Obama camp).

senrex on September 11, 2012 at 9:16 AM

You are using FR as some kind of conservative barometer or leading indicator?

If you pay attention to the trends over there, almost always led by their ever changing leader, JR, and give them any weight at all you are wasting your time.

Free Republic jumped the shark at least six years ago.

farsighted on September 11, 2012 at 9:46 AM

I told them over and over that anyone who thought Obama was going to take PA was a lunatic.

Should have said “anyone who thought McCain was going to take PA…”

Shouldn’t touch the vodka before 10am.

Sean

senrex on September 11, 2012 at 10:12 AM

My apologies if someone already posted this, but

http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-would-lead-eight-unskewed-data-from-newest-cnn-orc-poll

The latest CNN/ORC poll released today shows a wider lead for President Obama than the previous CNN/ORC poll but it is doubly skewed. It massively under-samples independents while it also over-samples Democratic voters. The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll official reports Obama at 52 to percent and Mitt Romney at 46 percent. Unskewed, the data reveals a 53 percent to 45 percent lead for Romney.

This new CNN/ORC survey, unlike many other analyzed, not only over-samples Democratic voters, but also massively under-samples independent voters, to produce a result more favorable to Barack Obama. This survey’s sample includes 397 registered Republicans and 441 registered Democrats. But the survey included a total of 822 registered voters, leaving only 37 independent voters at most. The survey clearly under-sampled independent and Republican voters.

The sample for the CNN/ORC poll includes 50.4 percent Democrats and 45.4 percent Republicans and appears to have only 4.2 percent independents. This means independents are under-sampled 25 percent while Democrats are over-sampled 12.1 percent. Both of those are larger variations in sampling than seen in most polls that are likewise skewed by such sampling variations.

fusionaddict on September 11, 2012 at 10:47 AM

Daily and hourly POLL

Sheep go BAHHH

If in fact there is ANYONE in the USA that has not quite made up their mind for which man or which direction this country is going to head….. stupid “Forward” theme, like we can travel in a time machine backwards. You are either PRO-socialism or PRO-capitalism. If you cannot look at your political parties platform and say… Yup… that’s what I want America to look like, then you are not capable of casting a vote worthy of the debt our forefathers paid for our freedom and right to cast it. Yet you will if you are a registered legal citizen of the USA have the opportunity to do so…right along with MANY illegal fraudulent votes as well…. YES….They can and WILL occur in numbers that are throwing elections in small cities and states across America!

Rhetoric…. President Obama and this administration will be unleashed as an unfettered unrestrained fiat ruled entity of epic proportions, he and they have a track record on which to base that claim. The Polls that are being flung about in the faces of the people are only as good as the pollster’s true intent…. To create an outcome or to report a sampling.

A pretty sad state of affairs if the average American voter decides his own vote on what he perceives an unknown, unspecified, unvalidated quantity of sheep wandering in a field with no specified link other than political party the poll data he reads says for him to do. What ever happened to the Great American thinkers?

ActinUpinTexas on September 11, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Obama lost 1 in head-to-head and 2 in approval in Rasmussen tracking today.

MaggiePoo on September 11, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Free Republic has a website design from 1991. A third grader could do a better job.

BrianVII on September 11, 2012 at 12:35 PM

Hey, elite media – I have a poll, too. ROMNEY IS PROJECTED TO LANDSLIDE OBAMA WITH 100% OF THE VOTE.My is just as accurate as yours!!!!

Mutnodjmet on September 11, 2012 at 6:05 PM

In other words, you want to say I’m a liberal O-bot in general, but can’t pull any specifics outta yer ass at the moment.

ddrintn on September 10, 2012 at 7:36 PM

Calling people Nazis is what O-bots do. And you do it, too.

Gelsomina on September 10, 2012 at 8:34 PM

LOL. You ‘bots can fling all sorts of garbage at anyone not on board the Red Team Express, and then get all weepy and pissy when you get just a little bit back.

ddrintn on September 11, 2012 at 7:10 PM

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