Bounce? Obama’s job approval at 52% in Gallup, highest since Bin Laden raid

posted at 4:01 pm on September 7, 2012 by Allahpundit

A week ago he was at 43/48. Now? 52/43.

I’m thisclose to going full eeyore on you. And trust me, you don’t want to see full eeyore. Melting-bunny videos in every post.

President Barack Obama and the Democratic Party look as if they are getting at least a preliminary bounce from their convention. Today’s (Friday, Sept. 7) Gallup Daily tracking update puts Obama’s job approval rating at 52%, the highest it has been since May 2011, after the killing of Osama bin Laden. Obama has also moved to a 48% to 45% lead over Mitt Romney among registered voters in the election tracking, up from Obama’s 47% to 46% margin over the last nine days.

Gallup averages the job approval rating on a three-day rolling average, meaning that today’s report encompasses interviewing conducted over the three days of the Democratic Convention in Charlotte — Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Gallup’s report of presidential election preferences are, on the other hand, based on a seven-day rolling average stretching from last Friday, the day after the GOP Convention ended, through last night.

In other words, the job approval number is the more useful indicator here because it’s not larded up with stale week-old data. And since the job approval number suddenly looks rosy, it stands to reason that O’s lead over Mitt could widen over the next few days as the pre-convention data is replaced with post-convention bounciness. Nor is this the only poll today to show an uptick for O. After the Republican convention, Romney bounced out to a four-point lead over Obama in Rasmussen’s daily tracker. Today at Ras, O’s back within one. Assuming Gallup’s right that there’s a bounce in motion, that tiny lead is likely to be erased this weekend.

Why not go full eeyore in honor of the occasion, then? Four reasons. One: O just took a roundhouse from that terrible, terrible jobs report. That’s bound to temper some of the new, Clinton-fueled enthusiasm for him. Two: Gallup’s and Rasmussen’s surveys are based for the most part on interviews conducted before O’s own widely panned speech last night. If the public was as underwhelmed by it as the commentariat, the bounce may well deflate early. Three: Gallup’s poll is of registered voters, which always skew Democratic. A 48/45 Obama lead among registereds is a de facto tie among likelies, which is precisely what Rasmussen’s finding. O’s back to even, not out to a lead. And four: Romney’s finally beginning his massive attack-ad offensive against Obama in eight key swing states today. When push comes to shove, it doesn’t much matter how O’s doing in the national daily trackers. It’s the swing-state polls that count.

Even so, no data this depressing can go without a proper video treatment. I hate to do it to you, guys, but you know the drill. Exit question via Stanley Kurtz: Are Republicans fooling themselves about how successful the Democratic convention was?

Update: A few readers have e-mailed to note that Gallup’s job approval number is based on a sample of adults, not registered voters. Right; it’s the head-to-head with Romney, where O now leads by three, that’s based on a sample of registereds. Apologies if that wasn’t clear. The point is, if we’re seeing his job approval rise among adults, that’ll probably have some similar but lesser effect among registereds and then a similar but still lesser effect among likelies. Not a huge bounce, but a little something.

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Ras now has his approval at 52% so he got a bounce. We will see if it lasts

Conservative4ev on September 9, 2012 at 11:13 AM

Romney’s not a “social-progressive”. He’s pro-life, pro-second amendment, anti-gay marriage.
writeblock on September 9, 2012 at 1:09 AM

Sorry, Skippy. The man himself disagrees with you.

Dunedainn on September 9, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Too many caveats for me to take seriously; a little bounce here reflects a little bounce there and it may not be long lasting…

Fuquay Steve on September 9, 2012 at 11:36 AM

Gallup will go to +6 today and +7 tomorrow. Silver did the math, Obama had to be polling +10.5 post Clinton speech to get to current numbers. Ipsos he has to be polling +8.9.

NextGen on September 9, 2012 at 11:46 AM

“Just look at how little conventions move preference compared to then. By now everyone knows the candidates, all that’s left is turnout and the few remaining undecides. This will be +/- 2pt election unless something huge happens outside either candidates control.”

I don’t know…the Dem convention sure seems to have moved the numbers a decent amount. The GOP convention was a dud for Romney, though.

gumbyandpokey on September 9, 2012 at 12:21 PM

I believe NOTHING that comes from “these” wings of the democRAT party.

mmcnamer1 on September 9, 2012 at 12:35 PM

Rasmussen: O 49%; R 45%
Wait until the debates, what do you think is going to happen?
R & R walking into the Lion’s Den with the all liberal cast of moderators.
They’ve probably been going over all the questions with O & B.
This is all so depressing, 4 more years.
Congress should just take a 4 year vacation, save a little taxpayer money, cause we’re going to need it with stimulus, more Solyndra’s, plenty more bailouts, & higher taxes. Wait until we see the debt clock in 2016, if we’re still here.
4 more years of executive orders bypassing the need for legislation….hey, look on the bright side, it does simplify things having a King.
My take on what’s keeping the R & R #’s down: entitlement mentality; everyone wants their free stuff.
Hey, when Caucasians become the minority group in America, does that qualify us for anything special?

Belle on September 9, 2012 at 12:42 PM

Silver did the math, Obama had to be polling +10.5 post Clinton speech to get to current numbers. Ipsos he has to be polling +8.9.

NextGen on September 9, 2012 at 11:46 AM

Nate Silver’s hardly what I would call a reliable source.

Myron Falwell on September 9, 2012 at 12:45 PM

Ras has Obama at 52% approving of his job performance

Conservative4ev on September 9, 2012 at 12:54 PM

hit hard on what? obama is a socialist\muslim\kenyan crazyness?
its the extreme right wing that demands so much crazy stuff, that the only chance moderates have is to pander so much to the right that they loss credibility and charisma. the moderate candidates that do not pander, (emilio hunstman) lose. the other moderates just skip the election.

nathor on September 8, 2012 at 10:33 AM

Please point us to a “moderate democrat”…The phrase is now an oxymoron…the left has gone so far left that John Kennedy would be considered a “extreme right winger” today…Their views on “on-demand, unfettered tax-payer funded/late-term abortion”, “free contraception” (masked as “women’s rights) and “welfare for all, we belong to the government/tax the evil rich” are straight out of Lenin’s Kremlin…
The loony left has gone full-marxist and wants to turn the Country into a Euro-Socialist trash-heep…
Good luck with that (hopenchange)…

Strike Hornet on September 9, 2012 at 1:46 PM

Gallup will go to +6 today and +7 tomorrow. Silver did the math, Obama had to be polling +10.5 post Clinton speech to get to current numbers. Ipsos he has to be polling +8.9.

NextGen on September 9, 2012 at 11:46 AM

Convention bounces are meaningless. The nature of any bounce is that it fades. It goes up, then quickly drops. It’s already fading in Gallup’s seven-day poll. The media always bangs the drums when a Democrat gets a bounce. Look at those old headlines in praise of Carter and Dukakis, practically calling the elections in their favor. There’s always a lot of buzz with bounces–but things revert back to normal as the bounce fades. The bottom line is always the state of the economy, not polling numbers just after a convention. The jobs report meant far more than the bounce. Don’t think Obama’s camp doesn’t realize this. Last Thursday he was morose for a reason. Another lousy jobs report and he’s toast.

writeblock on September 9, 2012 at 7:10 PM

I wish this didn’t harsh my mellow. But the stakes are so high and Americans are being so dumb.

We can’t take four more years of this and still be a strong country.

This has to end. Obama has to go.

So yeah… it’s a bump, yeah… Carter was ahead of Reagan… Dukakis was ahead of Bush…. blah blah blah… But what are people thinking that they could even consider voting for this loser again?

I can’t believe his approval is above 10% let alone 50%.

petunia on September 9, 2012 at 7:52 PM

writeblock on September 9, 2012 at 7:10 PM

Pre Internet, 29M $ total campain, Carter v Reagan is not an example I would bet the country on. Fading, its up 1 each day with 3 mor days pre Sun-Tues still in the number?

Romney needed to have aired his bio movie during prime time, then the “out of touch, does not care” attack would fall flat. Like it or not, this is not a CEO interview (yes I know chief ex) but its more…. People have to want you to be their leader, not just doubt the other guy. He should be strong and forthright, no more equivocating…. That Feds into the trust doubt.

NextGen on September 9, 2012 at 8:34 PM

I went thru the Ras poll, couldn’t tell if it was another D+4-10 or not.
Frankly, I don’t buy it.
Now if it is this way a week before the election, I will.

Hard Right on September 10, 2012 at 12:01 AM

I thought we had another 15-20 years to go before demographics kicked in and the GOP was no longer competitive in national elections.

Looks like I was wrong.

JFS61 on September 10, 2012 at 12:44 AM

JFS61 12:44 AM

No, it’s not demographics. It’s a crappy candidate that all the smart/cool kids on our side told us was the most electable and most amazing candidate put forth by the GOP since Reagan. While he talks about how Obama is nice but not good at his job, the left is making Romney out to be Hitler.

It’s a Chicago-style gangland street fight, and Romney’s brought his foils, mufflers (old style term for big, poofy boxing gloves), and knowledge of the Queens’ rules.

God help us.

avgjo on September 10, 2012 at 8:00 AM


I call bs on PPP.

neyney on September 10, 2012 at 3:56 PM