Reuters poll: No bounce yet for Obama

posted at 8:02 pm on September 6, 2012 by Allahpundit

Not sure how useful this is but I subjected you to an eeyorish “no bounce yet” post about Romney during the convention so I owe you a tentative high-five. Mitt ended up with the most modest possible bump after the GOP shindig ended; maybe this new poll is a sign that O won’t fare any better.

Major, major caveat: The poll was conducted (via online interview) from September 2 through today, which means the sample contains lots of people who hadn’t yet heard Michelle Obama or, especially, Bill Clinton speak. As I say, not that useful, but worth flagging as a marker for the more robust polls that’ll trickle out tomorrow and Saturday.

The latest daily tracking poll found Republican Mitt Romney still clinging to a narrow lead of 45 percent to Obama’s 44 percent among likely voters. Romney had led by 46 percent to 44 percent in Wednesday’s poll.

“We’re not seeing a sort of glimmer, at this point, of a bump,” said Ipsos pollster Julia Clark…

“I do think we probably will see a small bump still. Maybe we won’t start seeing it until Friday, Saturday or Sunday. I think it will be very modest,” Clark said…

For Romney, Thursday’s poll was good news. He is holding steady so far despite rampant criticism of him at the convention.

Even if he gets an immediate bounce, remember that Romney’s about to unleash the heavy attack-ad artillery tomorrow. He could have done it earlier this week, but why waste money on ads before O speaks when there’s a chance they’ll be instantly forgotten if he performs well tonight? Better to let him have his moment in Charlotte and then unload to try to instantly neutralize his momentum. And what happens if O gets a surprisingly big bounce and the Romney fusillade fails to dent it? Well, then we’re going to an all-eeyore-all-the-time format here at HA, baby. Prepare yourselves. Gray skies at the ol’ blog homestead until September at least.

Here’s O admitting to an NBC affiliate that he made a terrible mistake with his “you didn’t build that” line — in his choice of syntax, not the underlying sentiment. Poor messaging is, now and forever, the only sin Democrats will happily confess to. Right, Nicholas Kristof?

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In other news a rasup pool shows Bill Clinton ahead of Mitt Romney by 49 to 44.

VorDaj on September 6, 2012 at 8:06 PM

There won’t be one everyone knows who he is and what he did. The unemployment king

Conservative4ev on September 6, 2012 at 8:09 PM

Whatever bounce Obama might get from Clinton will be erased tonight when America is reminded that it’s actually Obama running.

Chuck Schick on September 6, 2012 at 8:09 PM

Oh too bad. Bill Clinton swallowed too much water and went under.

VorDaj on September 6, 2012 at 8:09 PM

Could it be that, besides the zealots (on both sides), no-one gives a flying flip?

OldEnglish on September 6, 2012 at 8:09 PM

Oh don’t worry there will a “bounce”.

CW on September 6, 2012 at 8:10 PM

the only bump is the lump in this throat

david kumbera on September 6, 2012 at 8:10 PM

And what happens if O gets a surprisingly big bounce and the Romney fusillade fails to dent it? Well, then we’re going to an all-eeyore-all-the-time format here at HA, baby. Prepare yourselves. Gray skies at the ol’ blog homestead until September at least.

There is at least a decent chance that Mitt Romney loses. I hope we’re all prepared for that reality.

That said, he will keep the GOP close enough that we will, in all likelihood, take the Senate. Then, if the Liar in Chief wins, it’s a matter of whose kung fu is better.

Commence firing, Team Mitt. Fire at will.

JohnGalt23 on September 6, 2012 at 8:11 PM

No bounce yet for Obama

…the liberals are angry that your’re not talking about JugEar’s checkbook!

KOOLAID2 on September 6, 2012 at 8:11 PM

Oh too bad. Bill Clinton swallowed too much water and went under.

VorDaj on September 6, 2012 at 8:09 PM

He went for a ride with the ghost of Ted Kennedy?

CW on September 6, 2012 at 8:11 PM

Obama will be explaining his plan to expand TEATERNOMICS tonight.

Find a teat on the Federal Sow everyone, and start sucking.

I’m pretty sure after hearing what’s in his speech that’s what’s in store for us all if he wins a 2nd term.

Dog whistle time.

PappyD61 on September 6, 2012 at 8:11 PM

Big bounce coming.

We are the ones we’ve been waiting for.

This is our moment, this is our time.

El_Terrible on September 6, 2012 at 8:12 PM

How did Hillary poll against the ONE..?

d1carter on September 6, 2012 at 8:12 PM

What about those suffering people on the Gulf Coast..?

d1carter on September 6, 2012 at 8:13 PM

He went for a ride with the ghost of Ted Kennedy?

CW on September 6, 2012 at 8:11 PM

A bridge too far.

VorDaj on September 6, 2012 at 8:14 PM

There is at least a decent chance that Mitt Romney loses. I hope we’re all prepared for that reality.

I’m trying to be, but there’s only so much gold, canned goods and ammunition I can get my hands on over the next few months.

Fabozz on September 6, 2012 at 8:14 PM

Rooters will gladly cook the numbers for a fellow Marxist.

Razz had best cook their polls properly or sleazy Eric Holder is gonna “Gallup” them too.

viking01 on September 6, 2012 at 8:14 PM

In the tradition of:

Lincoln, the great emancipator &

Reagan, the great communicator..comes

Barry Soetero a/k/a Barack Hussein Obama…….

……The Great Promiser.

PappyD61 on September 6, 2012 at 8:14 PM

How many supposedly “big” speeches has this man given? And he never really lives up to all the hype – whether it’s a State of the Union or Joint Session of Congress.

I recall his famous “race” speech back in 2008. I thought it was a disaster, but Chris Matthews compared it to Lincoln’s Copper Union Address. I fully expect tonight to be another huge nuthingburger.

TarheelBen on September 6, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Ted Kennedy – sober, or dry if you prefer, for more than three years now.

VorDaj on September 6, 2012 at 8:15 PM

I recall his famous “race” speech back in 2008. I thought it was a disaster, but Chris Matthews compared it to Lincoln’s Copper Union Address. I fully expect tonight to be another huge nuthingburger.

TarheelBen on September 6, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Come Nov 6 Obama will be channeling Armstrong Custer.

VorDaj on September 6, 2012 at 8:17 PM

Everyone is going to be thinking about one thing tonight: The Chair.

TFGRP is done, all that’s left is the crying and formality of an election. Well ok some rioting and murdering by the left too, but yeah.

Bishop on September 6, 2012 at 8:18 PM

Good God Grandhole is annoying!

Sasha List on September 6, 2012 at 8:19 PM

He will give a good speech but it won’t be any different than the million he seems to have already given!

mrscullen on September 6, 2012 at 8:21 PM

And what happens if O gets a surprisingly big bounce and the Romney fusillade fails to dent it? Well, then we’re going to an all-eeyore-all-the-time format here at HA, baby. Prepare yourselves. Gray skies at the ol’ blog homestead until September at least.

whatever.

Terrye on September 6, 2012 at 8:21 PM

so no bounce seen yet, but Allah still cries? color me shocked.

wargamer6 on September 6, 2012 at 8:21 PM

Come on, folks. These are media polls. Barack will get his bounce — probably a big one. That was baked in before this abortion-a-palooza ever started. It won’t work, though. The preference cascade is already rolling. Too many Americans have figured out that their fellow Americans feel the same way about this empty suit that they do. Late-night comedians are ripping him apart. Celebrities are freely criticizing him. And, most of all, he has never, ever, not even one time been asked to defend his dismal record — the first time will be at the debates. He should have done twenty Fox News interviews to prepare; it would have been the best debate prep ever because they are the only ones who would have asked him tough questions. Even if the lapdog moderator doesn’t challenge barack, Romney will. And barack will be unprepared. And he will stammer. And he’ll be a big ole picture of sweaty, darting eyes fail.

Rational Thought on September 6, 2012 at 8:21 PM

I’m trying to be, but there’s only so much gold, canned goods and ammunition I can get my hands on over the next few months.

Fabozz on September 6, 2012 at 8:14 PM

Concentrate on ammunition, you can always use that to get more food and gold from other peop…uhhh…

*whistles tunelessly*

Bishop on September 6, 2012 at 8:21 PM

Just wait till CNN et al get going with their Dem +20 sample. Oh there will be a bump.

mitchellvii on September 6, 2012 at 8:21 PM

The wheels are coming off the wagon. It’s just a matter of time before a few of the crazier ones starts denying that there’s discord at the convention. You watch, it’ll happen.

hawkdriver on September 6, 2012 at 8:21 PM

Of all the tracking polls, Reuters/IPSOS is the one most biased in favor of Barry. Any pro Romney result is buried, and any result that can be exaggerated in favor for Barry is played up.

I posted before Reuters/IPSOS loudly proclaimed last Saturday that Romney’s small bounce from RNC was short lived, based that on one day’s sample (Barry 44, Romney 43). The next day, it was 45/45. Reuters headline for that day was “Barry poised for a bounce”. Then the tracking poll disappeared on Monday. On Tuesday Romney was ahead by 1, and Reuters headline was “Barry got high marks for personal attributes”. It again disappeared yesterday, maybe because Romney was up 2.

This tracking poll likely has a Dem overweight: on Sunday’s poll, Romney has a 10? point advantage among independents, and the final tally was a tie.

Couple of points in addition:
Today’s result reflected samples taken after the Moochelle’s speech.

And Romney was behind Barry 46 percent to 42 percent in the Reuters/IPSOS poll just prior to the RNC Convention. That is a 5 to 6 point flip.

bayview on September 6, 2012 at 8:22 PM

BTW, I live here in Charlotte and it is a gorgeous warm clear night out. Lol.

mitchellvii on September 6, 2012 at 8:22 PM

Byron York:

CHARLOTTE — President Obama’s supporters are hoping he’ll deliver a boffo address to the Democratic convention tonight — perhaps one equaling Bill Clinton’s widely-praised speech from Wednesday night. Maybe he will, maybe he won’t. But even if he does, Romney strategists believe it will have little effect on the undecided voters who will pick the next president.

The reason is that research has shown those voters discount Obama’s rhetorical ability when they listen to him. They’ve heard him a lot, perhaps too much, in the last five years. Should he make a great speech — something he has not actually done as president — they will simply say, “Oh yeah, we know he can talk. We’ve heard it all before. It’s what he’s done that matters.”

If that is true, it suggests there’s really not much the president can say that will change minds on Thursday night — even those minds that are most open to change. Perhaps there are some things Obama could do to improve his standing with independent voters, but talking isn’t one of them. So on Thursday night, there could be a downside for Obama, especially if he comes off badly compared to Clinton. But upside? Other than praise from some of the usual media suspects, not muc

Who praised Clinton other than Democrats?

Terrye on September 6, 2012 at 8:24 PM

BTW, I live here in Charlotte and it is a gorgeous warm clear night out. Lol.

mitchellvii on September 6, 2012 at 8:22 PM

Yeah but there’s rain in New Hampshire, and you never know when that rain might sweep down into North Carolina.

Bigot.

Bishop on September 6, 2012 at 8:28 PM

if he performs well tonight?

Not too worried about that. What new does he have to say that we haven’t heard ad nauseam before?

parteagirl on September 6, 2012 at 8:28 PM

YouTube has a banner at the top of their home page (put up by the Obama 2012 campaign) that will let you watch it live.

Google has a headline at their home page so you can watch it live.

Twitter had a pic last night that Jack Dorsey posted of Clinton and Obama hugging on the platform.

All in the bag for Obama, fools.

PappyD61 on September 6, 2012 at 8:29 PM

We all know these people lie as often as they breathe. Up is down, black is white, and wrong is right. Just ask them, they’ll lie to your face without breaking stride. THEY WILL GET THEIR MEDIA BOUNCE!!! (It will be as fake as Charlie Crist’s tan, but it WILL happen.)

Sasha List on September 6, 2012 at 8:29 PM

I betcha we can finishe Obam’s sentences for him, whadya think? We could’ve written his speech. Sadly, the only bounce I’ll get goes in the clothes dryer.

ziggyville on September 6, 2012 at 8:30 PM

PappyD61 on September 6, 2012 at 8:29 PM

Who the hell goes to Google anymore?

BING, baby; cool pics and none of that bullcrap Google does about celebrating Kwanzaa and skipping Memorial Day.

Bishop on September 6, 2012 at 8:32 PM

I’m more concerned about possible false employment data coming out tomorrow that will place the unemployment rate at 7.9% or even 8.0% which will then be gleefully spun by the drooling leftist Media as proof that Obama’s plan is working. If there are any undecideds left, they will then swing to Obama, giving him the benefit of the doubt.

Decoski on September 6, 2012 at 8:33 PM

Decoski on September 6, 2012 at 8:33 PM

The rosy job report for tomorrow reflects the hiring of many cooks and make-up artists.

bayview on September 6, 2012 at 8:35 PM

…’once you vote black you never go back’…button on the floor at the DNC convention.

KOOLAID2 on September 6, 2012 at 8:38 PM

How could there possibly be a bounce after this?

The convention is geared toward the lefty base.

There is nothing for the undecided voter.

faraway on September 6, 2012 at 8:38 PM

BTW, I live here in Charlotte and it is a gorgeous warm clear night out. Lol.

mitchellvii on September 6, 2012 at 8:22 PM

Good night to be out at the football stadium…

Oops.

JohnGalt23 on September 6, 2012 at 8:38 PM

People have already made up their mind. Those who will vote for Obama would do so no matter what happens. Those who oppose him will not be swayed.

Relax

It’s going to be like 2010 on steroids.

HotAirian on September 6, 2012 at 8:40 PM

How could there possibly be a bounce after this?

The convention is geared toward the lefty base.

There is nothing for the undecided voter.

faraway on September 6, 2012 at 8:38 PM

If it enthuses the bases enough, you could see the LV numbers move.

But probably not that much. It’s still a dead heat, and we still have to win Ohio…

JohnGalt23 on September 6, 2012 at 8:40 PM

BTW, I live here in Charlotte and it is a gorgeous warm clear night out. Lol.

mitchellvii on September 6, 2012 at 8:22 PM

Someone is mocking the DNC.

bayview on September 6, 2012 at 8:40 PM

Heh, Barry`s starting to look old…must be all that wagu beef and golf.

NY Conservative on September 6, 2012 at 8:42 PM

Come on, folks. These are media polls. Barack will get his bounce — probably a big one. That was baked in before this abortion-a-palooza ever started. It won’t work, though. The preference cascade is already rolling.

Rational Thought on September 6, 2012 at 8:21 PM

I feel the same, except for that meme that came out of Plouffe today of all days, saying don’t expect a big bounce.

That, IMO, means they have the early tracking.

So, either they’re saving the bounce-effect talk just for Barry…

…or they know it is static noise.

budfox on September 6, 2012 at 8:47 PM

I’m more concerned about possible false employment data coming out tomorrow that will place the unemployment rate at 7.9% or even 8.0% which will then be gleefully spun by the drooling leftist Media as proof that Obama’s plan is working. If there are any undecideds left, they will then swing to Obama, giving him the benefit of the doubt.

Decoski on September 6, 2012 at 8:33 PM

Pyrrhic victory. If they put out fake numbers tomorrow — and pretty much everyone believes they will — barack will go up in the polls, and employers, who are starting to breathe a little at the prospect of a Romney win, will become terrified at the prospects of re-election again. They’ll contract, hard. And the employment news for October and November — right before election day — will be horrific.

Rational Thought on September 6, 2012 at 8:54 PM

The RCP average is now showing a tied race at 46.7%.

I see this as all good. First, the trend is clearly in Mitt’s favor. He has had to move up steadily to produce a tie in that average of polls. What’s more, the Razz poll of likely voters (the most reliable in my book) has had him ahead consistently for a few weeks now. And last, but not least, Obama’s approval remains at about 47.5% (with Razz at 46% or a -8 approve/disapprove). An incumbent does not typically get more than his approval and that implies a 5 or 6 point or more Romney win.

MJBrutus on September 6, 2012 at 8:56 PM

Rational Thought on September 6, 2012 at 8:54 PM

These days the markets are reacting much more to the Fed’s cryptic quotes, the latest Euro central bank plan to print unlimited money, the next of the PIGS to need a bailout, etc. I don’t think that the election or the fiscal cliff in Jan is even on Wall Street’s radar yet.

MJBrutus on September 6, 2012 at 8:59 PM

Heh, Barry`s starting to look old…must be all that wagu beef and golf.

NY Conservative on September 6, 2012 at 8:42 PM

There’s probably more coke in that clown than a drug cartel submarine.

viking01 on September 6, 2012 at 9:08 PM

Folks getting unemployment below 8% at this point is impossible. The reason being that even if hiring ticks up (in anticipation of a Romney win), this means the workforce participation rate also goes up, driving up the topline unemployment number.

For unemployment to go below 8% at this point we would have to be creating over 500k jobs a month the next 2 months and even that would barely make a dent.

mitchellvii on September 6, 2012 at 9:12 PM

But…but Obama hasn’t yet released the Kraken of his superlative oratorial skills! Just you wait ..his speech is going to be the greatest thing since the Gettysburg address! We will all be so mooooved as to have no choice but to vote for him . . . Mmm, mmm, mmm

natasha333 on September 6, 2012 at 9:29 PM

No, no bounce yet for Obama, as far as I can tell. Also, frankly, I don’t really expect it, for several reasons. First, because the democratic convention has been a real mess, full of numerous controversies and missteps that would blunt any bounce Obama might get. Second, because if memory serves correctly, in 08, when Obama was still shiny and new he only got a fairly modest bump. It seems somewhat unlikely that Obama would get a bigger bump during his second convention, and if this holds true it limits whatever good it could possibly do for him.

Finally, Obama has been throwing money at advertising all summer but hasn’t been able to get out of the mid 40′s. This suggests that the remaining undecideds out there are going to extremely difficult for Obama to crack. It must be pointed out that the remaining undecideds are likely also going to be difficult for Romney to crack, I suspect we’re talking about the most distrustful most cynical segment of independent voters out there. This alone makes dramatic movement in either direction somewhat difficult.

Additionally, I feel inclined to point out that the DNC’s line-up has, not been very inspiring. Their best speaker so far has probably been Michele Obama, but her speech was designed more to improve personal likability so I doubt it’ll help with the vote totals much. Then you have Bill Clinton, whose speech was long, rambling, and oftentimes incoherent. The press ate Clinton’s speech up of course, but my sense is that most people lost interest in it well before it was over. Then you have Obama himself, and to be frank, as many speeches as he gives I don’t think his speech will help very much. The man loves seeing himself on national television, and as such has really overexposed himself over the past few years. Romney speaking was helpful because a lot of people still didn’t know who he was, and a good speech was able to energize Romney voters and help improve his likability. Obama, however, is a known thoroughly known quantity, so unless he can come up with compelling answers for his failures I rather doubt his speech will help much.

Of course, I could be wrong, but I don’t think so. The electorate has so far been resistant to sudden changes, and I just don’t see that suddenly changing.

WolvenOne on September 6, 2012 at 9:33 PM

Poop lacks elasticity.

Axe on September 6, 2012 at 10:31 PM

“We’re not seeing a sort of glimmer, at this point, of a bump,” said Ipsos pollster Julia Clark…

Perhaps it’s time for Obama and Holder to uncork a few more Gallup-like lawsuits against these pollsters. That will get the polls back where they belong!

RJL on September 6, 2012 at 11:18 PM

I just hope that not too many Americans fall for Obama’s dog and pony show.

Dollayo on September 7, 2012 at 1:31 AM

In the tradition of:

Lincoln, the great emancipator &

Reagan, the great communicator..comes

Barry Soetero a/k/a Barack Hussein Obama…….

……The Great Promiser.

PappyD61 on September 6, 2012 at 8:14 PM

I’d shorten it just to “Barack Obama the Great Empty Promiser” Even the Great Empty Chair… is better with the Great in front.

petunia on September 7, 2012 at 1:52 AM