Conservative groups not spending money in Pennsylvania — or Michigan?

posted at 5:21 pm on September 6, 2012 by Allahpundit

Makes sense, really.

The pro-Romney groups American Crossroads and Americans for Prosperity are pouring nearly $13 million into advertising in key states, indicating they remain eager to lend considerable financial muscle to Romney in states viewed as truly competitive.

There are no presidential campaign ads of any kind airing in Pennsylvania and Michigan, according to information provided by media trackers to the Associated Press…

“You don’t spend money if you know you’re going to win or you know you’re going to lose, and Obama hasn’t spent five cents” in Michigan, Robinson said…

Romney’s forces could be waiting to see how he and the president emerge from their national conventions, Robinson said. The Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, N.C., ends today. The Republicans met last week in Tampa, Fla., where deputy campaign director Katie Packer Gage told the Michigan delegation that Romney “will never pull out of Michigan.”

There’s no reason to spend in Pennsylvania. Realistically, the only scenario in which Romney takes it is if there’s a huge red wave that not only carries Mitt to victory in the battleground states he needs for 270 but even in a few that he doesn’t need, like PA. If the polls there start to tighten down the stretch, then they’ll almost certainly be tightening in purpler, more important states like Virginia and Colorado too. If you had $5 million to spend on ads, where would you rather roll the dice? On Virginia, where O might be up by a point in October, or in Pennsylvania, where he’s apt to be up by five points or more?

As for Michigan, O leads there right now by 2.4 points in the RCP average, although most individual polls over the past six weeks have it closer to five or six points. I think this is going to be one of Romney’s “Hail Mary” states if he falls behind in October and suddenly needs to make a desperate play for electoral votes as other battlegrounds start to slip away. To refresh your memory, here’s how centrist Dem William Galston frames the math:

The Obama 2 are Wisconsin (10 EVs), which Obama won by 14 points in 2008, and Michigan (16 EVs), where he prevailed by more than 16. Polling this year has long indicated much closer races in these states, and the selection of Paul Ryan seems to have contributed to the statistical ties shown in the most recent surveys. Winning either of these states would be a game-changer, broadening Romney’s options for reaching 270 electoral votes and narrowing Obama’s.

But for simplicity’s sake, assume that each candidate does what he must, with Romney taking Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio while Obama turns back the Republican assault in the upper Midwest. If so, Obama would have 247 electoral votes; Romney, 253. And five states would be left to decide the contest: Virginia (13), New Hampshire (4), Iowa (6), Colorado (9), and Nevada (6). Obama won all five in 2008, four by margins exceeding his national margin, the fifth (Virginia) with slightly less.

If Michigan stays reasonably close — which isn’t impossible, given the Romney family’s ties there — while most of those five true toss-ups start to drift away, then Team Mitt, the RNC, and conservative Super PACs may go all-in on Michigan as a last-ditch EV jackpot. But clearly, they’re not going to do that now. Better to carpet-bomb the toss-ups and try to move the needles there than throw for the end zone in a state won by Obama four years ago by, er, 16+ points.

And speaking of carpet-bombing, it’s time to duck and cover, my friends. Here it comes. Exit quotation:

Senior Romney-Ryan campaign officials tell Fox News the campaign will launch an enormous media offensive on Friday, the day after President Obama accepts the Democratic Party’s nomination for a second term. The push will include ad buys in several states that will cost tens of millions of dollars…

Romney-Ryan officials did not repudiate such talk; indeed, one official, in speaking to Fox News, likened the offensive that will begin Thursday to the “daisy cutter” bombs used in the Iraq war.


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…just…wait!

KOOLAID2 on September 6, 2012 at 5:24 PM

…Mitt won’t give up on his birthplace state

KOOLAID2 on September 6, 2012 at 5:25 PM

Come and get WI Romney/Ryan!!!! You can win here!

Sasha List on September 6, 2012 at 5:25 PM

Because PA is a sure-fire win, or lost cause?

listens2glenn on September 6, 2012 at 5:25 PM

Need to lock down Florida, Ohio, Virginia and New Hampshire.

Then go after Colorado, Nevada, and Wisconsin.

aunursa on September 6, 2012 at 5:27 PM

Realistically, the only scenario in which Romney takes it is if there’s a huge red wave that not only carries Mitt to victory in the battleground states he needs for 270 but even in a few that he doesn’t need, like PA.

There’s a high likelihood of this scenario, AP.

blink on September 6, 2012 at 5:26 PM

I think so too.

Jackalope on September 6, 2012 at 5:27 PM

…if JugEars wins either state…use…

“daisy cutter” bombs used in the Iraq war.

KOOLAID2 on September 6, 2012 at 5:28 PM

$13 million is chump change, BTW. American Crossroads has raised more than $150 million. They’re not going to spend all of it in 6 states.

rockmom on September 6, 2012 at 5:28 PM

Romney-Ryan officials did not repudiate such talk; indeed, one official, in speaking to Fox News, likened the offensive that will begin Thursday to the “daisy cutter” bombs used in the Iraq war.

I hope they actually follow through. No sense building up expectations only to tone it down.

Bitter Clinger on September 6, 2012 at 5:28 PM

Tomorrow, Romney’s REAL campaign begins – strap yourself in and don’t forget to donate!

Pork-Chop on September 6, 2012 at 5:28 PM

Because PA is a sure-fire win, or lost cause?

listens2glenn on September 6, 2012 at 5:25 PM

They’re calling it a lost cause. They even said Romney doesn’t need PA. I guess gumbyandpokey was right. /sarc

Night Owl on September 6, 2012 at 5:29 PM

If Mitt/team wants to getter done, get lot, lots of ads against bho, in his own words, in all the toss up states! It seems lots of people have zero clue what bho has said/done thanks to bhopress! You want to win R&R use bho to see it happens! NO MORE defense!
L

letget on September 6, 2012 at 5:29 PM

Because PA is a sure-fire win, or lost cause?

listens2glenn on September 6, 2012 at 5:25 PM

I say spend the money in PA. Make the rat-eared bastard spend there.

Happy Nomad on September 6, 2012 at 5:29 PM

likened the offensive that will begin Thursday to the “daisy cutter” bombs used in the Iraq war.

That is what it will taken….
An all out frontal assault…

No McCain surrender this time.

Give em heck Mitt!!!

redguy on September 6, 2012 at 5:30 PM

PA: the same state that gave us Murtha and Spectre…

Next…

Khun Joe on September 6, 2012 at 5:30 PM

Tomorrow, Romney’s REAL campaign begins – strap yourself in and don’t forget to donate!
For the first time ever my Husband donated to a Campaign last week. Not much being unemployed but something. Never seen him so fired up. It’s usually me…

sandee on September 6, 2012 at 5:30 PM

If Mitt can get his message out, he will carry every state in midwest except Illinois. The Dems are in such disarray that if the GOP hits them hard, we could see some serious surprises on election night, not just for Mitt, but for down ticket as well.

I’m even going to go out on a limb, and say that obama will need to spend more money than planned to win NY and MA.

ConservativePartyNow on September 6, 2012 at 5:31 PM

If Romney will say “you not telling the truth” during the debates, we’ll win

Jackalope on September 6, 2012 at 5:31 PM

Romney-Ryan officials did not repudiate such talk; indeed, one official, in speaking to Fox News, likened the offensive that will begin Thursday to the “daisy cutter” bombs used in the Iraq war.

War mongers!!!!!!!!!!

Chuck Schick on September 6, 2012 at 5:31 PM

Preference cascade, baby! The American public has figured out that their neighbors, friends, co-workers think the barack regime is as corrupt and incompetent as they do. That is…empowering!

Rational Thought on September 6, 2012 at 5:32 PM

Both campaigns and several PACs have been running ads in Philly until about 2 weeks ago. There are still some PAC ads running, but it has been quiet. I’m glad, because it’s giving our local candidates some air time they need.

Team Obama’s dangerously low on cash, so they probably have pulled out of PA thinking it’s close enough to being in the bag they can skip it for a while and concentrate on other states. They’ll be back if the polls tighten. I’m hoping Romney is playing a little rope-a-dope here. if he dumped a huge ad buy here in another week or two, it could be very effective.

rockmom on September 6, 2012 at 5:32 PM

Senior Romney-Ryan campaign officials tell Fox News the campaign will launch an enormous media offensive on Friday, the day after President Obama accepts the Democratic Party’s nomination for a second term. The push will include ad buys in several states that will cost tens of millions of dollars…

Romney-Ryan officials did not repudiate such talk; indeed, one official, in speaking to Fox News, likened the offensive that will begin Thursday to the “daisy cutter” bombs used in the Iraq war.

*Gasp!* The Death Star.

Punchenko on September 6, 2012 at 5:32 PM

Romney-Ryan officials did not repudiate such talk; indeed, one official, in speaking to Fox News, likened the offensive that will begin Thursday to the “daisy cutter” bombs used in the Iraq war.

Imagine the charges of unfair from the Obama camp. Those evil Koch brothers etc…

sandee on September 6, 2012 at 5:32 PM

BTW, Obama is ahead in New Jersey by only 7 points, with no ads. He carried it by 18 points in 2008.

rockmom on September 6, 2012 at 5:33 PM

Here we go.

Terrye on September 6, 2012 at 5:34 PM

Romney-Ryan officials did not repudiate such talk; indeed, one official, in speaking to Fox News, likened the offensive that will begin Thursday to the “daisy cutter” bombs used in the Iraq war.

Oh yes

RedNewEnglander on September 6, 2012 at 5:35 PM

What will be the tipping point in the swing states? Debates, ads, campaign stops? I think if R/R are not sissy boys in the debates, a la McCain, the swing states will turn red for him.

Jackalope on September 6, 2012 at 5:37 PM

The democrat electoral math assumes that they lose New Hampshire, Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, plus Wisconsin due to Ryan and the recall election enhanced turnout. If they hold Colorado, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Iowa, they reach precisely 270. This is why the dems have been living in Iowa for the past three weeks. Their hope is to pull the bare minimum EV to survive.

Vashta.Nerada on September 6, 2012 at 5:37 PM

The democrat electoral math assumes that they lose New Hampshire, Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, plus Wisconsin due to Ryan and the recall election enhanced turnout. If they hold Colorado, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Iowa, they reach precisely 270. This is why the dems have been living in Iowa for the past three weeks. Their hope is to pull the bare minimum EV to survive.

Vashta.Nerada on September 6, 2012 at 5:37 PM

I don’t see them winning Ohio.

Jackalope on September 6, 2012 at 5:38 PM

…the only scenario in which Romney takes it is if there’s a huge red wave that not only carries Mitt to victory in the battleground states he needs for 270 but even in a few that he doesn’t need…

Under Barky, things have ony gotten worse since 2010. The Big Red wave is coming.

jrgdds on September 6, 2012 at 5:38 PM

Get the death star warmed up. Romney had swings of 5 to 10 points when he brought in the big ads etc during the primaries. I would think 2 or 3 points would be doable when there has been NO advertising.

Midwesterner on September 6, 2012 at 5:38 PM

Spending money in MI helps Hoekstra, who is close. Spending money in PA helps Smith who, unfortunately, isn’t that close. I have no idea why the people of PA believe the legend that is Casey, rather than what the man really stands for. Oh well. Seeing a lot of that lately.

besser tot als rot on September 6, 2012 at 5:38 PM

Bring out the MOAB

brut4ce on September 6, 2012 at 5:39 PM

There was a piece yesterday that said as of Sept-1 that no national political are running in PA.

J_Crater on September 6, 2012 at 5:39 PM

I’d also like to see Romney spend in MA/CT to help the Senate candidates. And maybe even close the gap enough to draw Obama’s attention in CT??

besser tot als rot on September 6, 2012 at 5:40 PM

Romney-Ryan officials did not repudiate such talk; indeed, one official, in speaking to Fox News, likened the offensive that will begin Thursday to the “daisy cutter” bombs used in the Iraq war.

I certainly hope so. This week has been a bummer for me. All the media slobbering is so disturbing, it’s made me a little eyeorish.

Bring it!!!

bluealice on September 6, 2012 at 5:40 PM

I have no idea why the people of PA believe the legend that is Casey

Casey Sr (RIP) was a legend in PA, but not this half-wit son.

J_Crater on September 6, 2012 at 5:40 PM

*Gasp!* The Death Star.

Punchenko on September 6, 2012 at 5:32 PM

This is pretty much the moment we’ve been waiting for. If he can do what he did to his primary opponents, his victory is going to be gigantic.

Doomberg on September 6, 2012 at 5:40 PM

BTW, Obama is ahead in New Jersey by only 7 points, with no ads. He carried it by 18 points in 2008.

rockmom on September 6, 2012 at 5:33 PM

Romney’s going to reassess in a couple weeks where things stand. The debates will be important.

IR-MN on September 6, 2012 at 5:42 PM

Commence primary ignition.

HitNRun on September 6, 2012 at 5:42 PM

..ah yes! Carpet bombing! It’s so, so, so attention-attracting, innit?

The War Planner on September 6, 2012 at 5:42 PM

I’m volunteering in SW Michigan!

usedtobeinmich on September 6, 2012 at 5:42 PM

I don’t see them winning Ohio.

Jackalope on September 6, 2012 at 5:38 PM

They are spending a fortune in that state, and relying on Kasich’s failed collective bargaining vote as an indicator. I would expect the vote in Ohio to be close, but if Romney runs ads showing Delphi retirees who were screwed, plus ads on the coal situation in the East of the state, he should be able to win.

Vashta.Nerada on September 6, 2012 at 5:43 PM

Funny, just as I was reading this an ad came on with Bubba shilling for Obama with a banner across the screen: “TEXT ‘GIVE’ TO 12345 TO DONATE $10 TO THE OBAMA CAMPAIGN!!”. On Fox News Channel, no less.

It was a campaign ad, not a PAC ad.

I live in New Jersey. Doesn’t Barry have New Jersey all sewn up?

Naturally Curly on September 6, 2012 at 5:31 PM

Naturally Curly on September 6, 2012 at 5:43 PM

his victory is going to be gigantic.

Doomberg on September 6, 2012 at 5:40 PM

Don’t underestimate stupid people that vote. I’m surrounded by them.

bluealice on September 6, 2012 at 5:43 PM

The democrat electoral math assumes that they lose New Hampshire, Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, plus Wisconsin due to Ryan and the recall election enhanced turnout. If they hold Colorado, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Iowa, they reach precisely 270. This is why the dems have been living in Iowa for the past three weeks. Their hope is to pull the bare minimum EV to survive.

Vashta.Nerada on September 6, 2012 at 5:37 PM

I think both CO and OH are gone for obama. I think he knows that he could very well lose, but does not want Mitt to win in landslide.

I do think one of the shockers will be Mitt winning NJ and I think he may also lose CT

ConservativePartyNow on September 6, 2012 at 5:44 PM

Romney-Ryan officials did not repudiate such talk; indeed, one official nicknamed Baghdad Bob, in speaking to Fox News, likened the offensive that will begin Thursday to the “daisy cutter” bombs used in the Iraq war.

i’m sure it’ll be devastating.

sesquipedalian on September 6, 2012 at 5:44 PM

Just imagine the treasure trove of ads R&R will get tonight with what bho will give R&R and the rnc?
L

letget on September 6, 2012 at 5:45 PM

Campaign starts tomorrow – BRING IT ON!

gophergirl on September 6, 2012 at 5:46 PM

BTW, Obama is ahead in New Jersey by only 7 points, with no ads. He carried it by 18 points in 2008.

rockmom on September 6, 2012 at 5:33 PM

Obama has been running ads in Monmouth County for weeks.

Naturally Curly on September 6, 2012 at 5:46 PM

…Mitt won’t give up on his birthplace state

KOOLAID2 on September 6, 2012 at 5:25 PM

If it wasn’t for Ryan, Team Mittens would have a fightin’ chance of going 0 for Home States.

Bruno Strozek on September 6, 2012 at 5:46 PM

I just can’t get over that it is this close after the past 3 1/2 years.

tommer74 on September 6, 2012 at 5:47 PM

OT- Rep. Barney Frank is speaking at Democrat Convention now about financial reform etc.

http://www.c-span.org/DNC/Live/

wren on September 6, 2012 at 5:47 PM

Romney’s going to reassess in a couple weeks where things stand. The debates will be important.

IR-MN on September 6, 2012 at 5:42 PM

If we’re counting on Romney’s debate performances to put him over the top, we may as well concede now. I sure as heck hope that is not what we’re counting on. Romney needs to get some momentum before and aside from the debates!

besser tot als rot on September 6, 2012 at 5:47 PM

Michigan.

The reason pro-Israel language was taken out of the Dem platform.

Ben Hur on September 6, 2012 at 5:48 PM

The democrat electoral math assumes that they lose New Hampshire, Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, plus Wisconsin due to Ryan and the recall election enhanced turnout. If they hold Colorado, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Iowa, they reach precisely 270. This is why the dems have been living in Iowa for the past three weeks. Their hope is to pull the bare minimum EV to survive.

Vashta.Nerada on September 6, 2012 at 5:37 PM

Don’t forget that Nebraska now splits it’s EVs by Congressional District with an additional 2 going based on the Popular Vote in the state.

Obama picked up an Electoral Vote from Omaha last time around. Obama campaigning in Omaha is a twofer since it shares a border with IA.

weaselyone on September 6, 2012 at 5:48 PM

I’m in CO so I will not be turning on the TV till the night of the election, we are already being bombarded with political ads and its only going to get worse.

tommer74 on September 6, 2012 at 5:49 PM

BTW, Obama is ahead in New Jersey by only 7 points, with no ads. He carried it by 18 points in 2008.

rockmom on September 6, 2012 at 5:33 PM

Obama has been running ads in Monmouth County for weeks.

Naturally Curly on September 6, 2012 at 5:46 PM

Talk about the Law of Diminishing Returns. Obama is running ads (while Romney isn’t) yet he’s doing poorer.

Bitter Clinger on September 6, 2012 at 5:49 PM

we need to elect Romney-Ryan and a strong Republican Senate and House to back them up.

my kid’s high school US history teacher last night in an open house (this is a Jewish day school) said that they will talk about the elections, for sure, because this election will be the most important.

why?

because the next president will appoint 3 or 4 supreme court justices, and this will be critical for US history.

we need a strong Republican senate…which means every Senate seat…including MO.

wholefoodsrepublican on September 6, 2012 at 5:52 PM

WI is Romney’s for the taking. Ads hammering Obama for his war on energy puts PA in play. MI is Obama +2.4. He has more money than Obama. His ROI on ads in states where Obama isn’t spending will be higher than in saturated states.

Don’t ignore these states!

EddieC on September 6, 2012 at 5:52 PM

…Mitt won’t give up on his birthplace state

KOOLAID2 on September 6, 2012 at 5:25 PM

Don’t be silly.
He will in a heartbeat.

verbaluce on September 6, 2012 at 5:54 PM

Need to lock down Florida, Ohio, Virginia and New Hampshire.

Then go after Colorado, Nevada, and Wisconsin.

aunursa on September 6, 2012 at 5:27 PM

Agreed, but don’t forget Iowa, which is relatively cheap advertising.

If it looks like Romney is one state short, he should go after MI before PA. Romney has roots in Michigan, and his father was both a Governor and CEO of a car company, and if he could keep it close in Detroit, the conservative western Michigan could put Romney over the top.

Pennsylvania is a much more difficult state for Republicans. There are massive concentrations of Democrats in Philly, Pittsburgh, and Erie, and the Susquehanna Valley (Scranton / Wilkes-Barre / Hazleton) has a lot of Catholics that vote Democrat by tradition, and Biden could also attract votes in Scranton. Pennsylvania is also an expensive state to advertise in the Philly and Pittsburgh media markets.

Senior Romney-Ryan campaign officials tell Fox News the campaign will launch an enormous media offensive on Friday, the day after President Obama accepts the Democratic Party’s nomination for a second term. The push will include ad buys in several states that will cost tens of millions of dollars…

If Romney is taking in $100 million a month for the last three months, NOW is the time to spend it, with only two months left. $150 million plus per month till Election Day can buy lots of ads, even allowing significant money for the “ground game”.

Steve Z on September 6, 2012 at 5:55 PM

Funny, just as I was reading this an ad came on with Bubba shilling for Obama with a banner across the screen: “TEXT ‘GIVE’ TO 12345 TO DONATE $10 TO THE OBAMA CAMPAIGN!!”. On Fox News Channel, no less.

It was a campaign ad, not a PAC ad.

I live in New Jersey. Doesn’t Barry have New Jersey all sewn up?

Naturally Curly on September 6, 2012 at 5:31 PM

Same add has been playing on the cable channels here in Chicago, when the state is supposedly sewn up for him. Obama is desperate for money, especially considering how his campaign was spending more than what it was taking in the last few months.

Is this at all effective for raising money? I guess they are going by the old saying “you gotta spend money to make money”, but is it really working for them?

italianguy626 on September 6, 2012 at 5:55 PM

There’s a high likelihood of this scenario, AP.

blink on September 6, 2012 at 5:26 PM

Talk to the hand, the eeyore can’t hear you..

disa on September 6, 2012 at 5:57 PM

It’s not like he doesn’t have the money. I sent in a few hundred. Spend the damn money. Make Obama defend. MI is way to close to give up on. 2 points! That’s in the margin for error.

rubberneck on September 6, 2012 at 5:58 PM

We have been drowning in o ads in ohio. I have been waiting to see a Romney ad. I want this rat bastard completely destroyed. I say spend the money and make the O campaign spend all of their money. I want to see him begging on the street corner for dimes.

megthered on September 6, 2012 at 5:58 PM

A suggested menu for election night, beer, popcorn, plenty of Tums, and a large platter of crow, like four years worth of it.

As for the Senate we’ve had 8 longs years of the RNC doing exactly what to resecure it? You expect in Oct 2012 the RNC and associated PACS have a clue how to secure it now?

Cheerleaders, bah-humbug!

Limerick on September 6, 2012 at 5:59 PM

Michigan went red at the state level in 2010. Going red this year won’t be that hard to do.

karenhasfreedom on September 6, 2012 at 6:00 PM

Yesterday the Houston Comical ran a headline that Sheiler Jaxon Lee claimed Texas would turn blue by 2014 but it only lasted about 10 minutes and was pulled. I was outraged!

Still haven’t seen a pres. ad here in Houston.

DanMan on September 6, 2012 at 6:00 PM

I live in PA and I see few ads for Romney. Spend the money here, Mitt. Really.

Philly on September 6, 2012 at 6:01 PM

Ben Hur on September 6, 2012 at 5:48 PM

yep, and prolly Minnesoter too, don’t they have the big Somali faction there

DanMan on September 6, 2012 at 6:04 PM

The 5 states that will decide the outcome of the election are FL, OH, VA, IA and WI.

bayview on September 6, 2012 at 6:04 PM

i live in Oakland county, MI, which is pretty democratic, i hardly see any signs of O. With the exception of a few bumper stickers, that’s about it. And I’m sure future polls will reflect that unless it’s just too early.

phatfawzi on September 6, 2012 at 6:06 PM

tommer74 on September 6, 2012 at 5:47 PM

The Unforgiven

When you see the POTUS as a charming and sweet talking neighbor but lousy general contractor coming in after a gang of reckless Wall Street oil and gold prospectors and evil billionaires wrecked your neighborhood in some vague exploitation jag, you wouldn’t want the old crew back, would you?

The Romney Bio, the tax issue, the avoided catastrophe scare, my… the whole program keeps 2008 tightly around the Republican’s neck.

I was saying a few years ago that the Bush legacy had to be cleaned up. The cause of 2008 had to be exposed, whomever had to be blamed. The truth that we had loose mortgages (which Dems loved like a fatty likes donuts) flowing in a free and unregulated system without firewalls (which Repubs love like Peyton Manning loves a slow secondary), seems to have caused it. People do not know that.

THIS REPUBLICAN PARTY HAS LOST TOUCH AND MAY PAY DEARLY FOR IT.

Moreover, a “real” rightie like former Governor Sarah Palin would do no better. They would just have another club with her ideology on parade.

IlikedAUH2O on September 6, 2012 at 6:07 PM

Romney-Ryan officials did not repudiate such talk; indeed, one official, in speaking to Fox News, likened the offensive that will begin Thursday to the “daisy cutter” bombs used in the Iraq war.

Used in Iraq? Shouldn’t that be Vietnam? Were any daisy cutters even used in Iraq? I think a few were used in Afcrapistan.

VorDaj on September 6, 2012 at 6:14 PM

I think it is a huge mistake if Romney doesn’t spend in Michigan. Ever since I moved here, I’ve heard about how “George Romney was the best governor we ever had” – even from people who weren’t even born when he served. The Romney name has good “brand appeal” in the state, and he would be foolish to not try and take advantage of it.

Mr Galt on September 6, 2012 at 6:16 PM

Don’t forget that Nebraska now splits it’s EVs by Congressional District with an additional 2 going based on the Popular Vote in the state.

Obama picked up an Electoral Vote from Omaha last time around. Obama campaigning in Omaha is a twofer since it shares a border with IA.

weaselyone on September 6, 2012 at 5:48 PM

As a resident of Nebraska’s second district, I can tell you that Obozo’s more likely to win Indiana again that he is to win here. The second district has less Obama-friendly borders than it did 4 years ago, and the D-Rats here are nowhere near the level of enthusiasm they had in ’08.

Benedict Nelson on September 6, 2012 at 6:22 PM

QED.

ddrintn on September 6, 2012 at 6:22 PM

If the economy picks up or we get other headlines, the albatross of 2008 will become a reputational millstone (Read The Forgotten Man and check former President Hoover’s reputation) and all of Mitt’s money and skill will mean nothing.

This country is an athlete who got very sick on not running against our competition, eating fatty foods and speed. Eventually, that lifestyle caught up with us.

Now we have a host who wants to serve up the energy jolts (QE’s) and fast easy foods despite all the indications that it is making our country an addict and permanently infirm.

Our host did get stuck with a dinner bill. Ironically, only pudgy Trump and Christie can see that both the bill and the menu are the problem.

Thank you.

IlikedAUH2O on September 6, 2012 at 6:25 PM

They don’t need a Daisy Cutter: they need a CBU-97.

Plus a ground game. Run through Hillary won counties from 2008 and just grind through them for a few weeks with a bus tour and stops along the way. That gets you a nice Appalachia strategy which hits a few real interesting States and targets the areas where Obama was weakest and remains weak. Then Ohio. Then Michigan.

Follow a ground game up with an air game of short commercial reminders on radio and tv over the areas hit with a ground game.

Go on the offense in a lot of small places with precisely targeted appearances aimed at critical counties. Keep reminders on the air as you go and grind through other important States. Obama doesn’t know how to play electoral defense…put him on the defensive and he gets petulant, shrill and berating becoming smaller and smaller as he does so.

ajacksonian on September 6, 2012 at 6:32 PM

PA is blue thanks to the braintrusts in Pittsburgh and Philly. The rest of the state is red, but those two cities ruin it for everyone!

cmsciulli on September 6, 2012 at 6:34 PM

I suspect internal poll numbers for MI look good for R&R. Don’t forget the real clear politics poll averages mostly depict outcomes from polls heavily skewed toward the dems. The types of voters who show up and vote this year will surprise a lot of people. Our idiot 2 term dem Senator is tied or near a tie against Hoekstra and she easily won her other 2 elections. Remember, that so called auto industry bailout wiped out more jobs than were “saved” here when they gutted GM and Chrysler. Those reliable blue collar union voters are no longer there for the dems. Those old enough to retire have moved to no income tax states and there aren’t any under 40 employed here in MI, not really. So the traditional demographics are no longer in MI. Romney can win here.

karenhasfreedom on September 6, 2012 at 6:36 PM

ConservativePartyNow on September 6, 2012 at 5:31 PM

PA will never go GOP. I just cannot see it. I do see Mitt having good chances in MI and WI and I think CT is a wildcard with a terrible D senate candidate and a a horrible dem gov.

In reality I think the one is the one with one state short – and the God snafu was just stupid.

Zomcon JEM on September 6, 2012 at 6:36 PM

karenhasfreedom on September 6, 2012 at 6:36 PM

That is good news..I hope you are correct..:)

Dire Straits on September 6, 2012 at 6:40 PM

I don’t understand why Ryan is’nt being better utilized. He is young articulate and unflappable. Because of this, he needs to go on shows that don’t preach to the choir. And as much as I detest shows like Leno, Letterman, kimmel, conan. and John stewart, they need to get him on there. Besides young people, a lot of women watch those shows. We may not like it, but its an American Idol society and these are the people left to court. Marco Rubio went on Stewart recently and was great and Stewart did not disrespect him. Ryan can handle it, Let it fly!

Robb on September 6, 2012 at 6:41 PM

I think both MI and PA are winnable, but taking emotion out of it, you’re first goal is just to get to 270, not to put an exclamation point on the win.

Virginia’s last election went Republican for Governor by nearly 20 points, it’s a much more winnable state than either Michigan or PA. Same with Ohio, it leans red in most elections. If Romney can’t win these two, chances are MI and PA are also out of reach.

Still, there is some merit to the idea that campaigns are about momentum, and going after the enemy in their “safe” territory really boosts morale. Also, Romney looks like he can comfortably outspend Obama from here on out, and there’s only so much you can spend in a swing state before it become saturated.

BradTank on September 6, 2012 at 6:43 PM


If we’re counting on Romney’s debate performances to put him over the top, we may as well concede now.

Yes, but who needs the debates when we got a such a huge bounce from the convention! Oh, wait

casuist on September 6, 2012 at 6:43 PM


I don’t understand why Ryan is’nt being better utilized.

Romney is the candidate, not Ryan. We can’t wish Romney off the ticket. Believe me, I’ve tried.

casuist on September 6, 2012 at 6:45 PM


I suspect internal poll numbers for MI look good for R&R.

Yes! And this explains why Rove’s Crossroads America and Team Romney are pouring money into Michigan ad buys targeting swing voters and–oh, wait, they’re doing the precise opposite. How odd that their spending decisions contradict what you imagine to be their internal polling.

casuist on September 6, 2012 at 6:49 PM

There’s no reason to spend in Pennsylvania. Realistically, the only scenario in which Romney takes it is if there’s a huge red wave that not only carries Mitt to victory in the battleground states he needs for 270 but even in a few that he doesn’t need, like PA.

If the polls there start to tighten down the stretch, then they’ll almost certainly be tightening in purpler, more important states like Virginia and Colorado too. If you had $5 million to spend on ads, where would you rather roll the dice? On Virginia, where O might be up by a point in October, or in Pennsylvania, where he’s apt to be up by five points or more?

This may be the last election that the gop is competitive in Presidential contests. Just a couple of decades ago California was in play, in 1984 New York was in play. Now the Dems control California, Washington, Oregon, New York, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin it’s also close in North Carolina, very close in Florida and the Dems might even pick up Ohio this cycle for good.

Texas is the only safe red state now………and Obama and the Castro Leprechaun of San Antonio are putting the gop on notice in that state as well. If Romney loses it may very well be all traceable back to the gop and their mimickry of the dems and their big government spending.

It’s do or die for the gop folks.

PappyD61 on September 6, 2012 at 7:01 PM

Yesterday the Houston Comical ran a headline that Sheiler Jaxon Lee claimed Texas would turn blue by 2014 but it only lasted about 10 minutes and was pulled. I was outraged!

Still haven’t seen a pres. ad here in Houston.

DanMan on September 6, 2012 at 6:00 PM

That’s why the borders are still open my friend. The gop is finished and so is this country if Texas goes Democrat. Castro is going to run for Governor and might win and that begins the end.

He might find himself on the 2016 ticket with Cuomo and bingo.

The gop will NEVER be able to win a Presidential contest after that.

PappyD61 on September 6, 2012 at 7:06 PM

Obama has been running ads in Monmouth County for weeks.

Naturally Curly on September 6, 2012 at 5:46 PM

I don’t understand O’s strategy here. Admittedly, I know nothing about Monmouth county other than where it is and what I read on Wikipedia. Is it true that Monmouth county is Republican? Also, it doesn’t seem to overlap with a Pennsylvania market.

JimLennon on September 6, 2012 at 7:07 PM

Romney is the candidate, not Ryan. We can’t wish Romney off the ticket. Believe me, I’ve tried.

casuist on September 6, 2012 at 6:45 PM

And I would suggest that the GOP wouldn’t be as close to victory as they are now with Paul Ryan at the top of the ticket.

Happy Nomad on September 6, 2012 at 7:08 PM

We have a Voter ID law in PA. That might make a difference.

jtdavies on September 6, 2012 at 7:09 PM

PappyD61 on September 6, 2012 at 7:01 PM

I brought your points up with a guy in polling and got a blank look.

Nobody can see where the train is going.

Rasmussen can’t figure why we are so polarized.
I say, “Polarized?”

Wait for the 2020 0r 24 Dem nominee. Probably Chavez’s nephew.

President “Trash The Constitution” will look like a Founding Father.

IlikedAUH2O on September 6, 2012 at 7:13 PM

I know it’s almost impossible to win in MI, but the recent polls are really strange. The recent PPP has Obama winning, but a 25 point swing of women to Romney. I think Romney CAN win it. There was another poll today showing Romney up by a couple points. This poll shows 50+ voters going slightly for Obama and this is the only demographic holding the state close for Obama. Even blacks are going for Romney at 35%.

MrX on September 6, 2012 at 7:15 PM

The Lyin kING couldn’t come to Western IA last summer when the feral Gobernment flooded states up and down the Missouri, but he came last sat. to pander to 2000 on a college campi.
To get a ticket had to stand in line in 90 degree heat, produce photo ID!
Moms in the lines Friday got to front and could get Won ticket , for themselves, none for hubby or kids they had to be there and have ID.
No Id required to vote , but required to see the Lyin kING. Then if you got to the venue 10 minutes before speaking time, turned away as the Liar showed up twenty minutes early and they locked it down.
Two limos for the king one pulled up in tent so he could get out unseen, one plane day prior to carry vehicles, and two Air Farce Wons so if someone tried to take Won down they wouldn’t know which Won.
You Paid for it

ConcealedKerry on September 6, 2012 at 7:19 PM

Even blacks are going for Romney at 35%.

MrX on September 6, 2012 at 7:15 PM

You lost me right at the end there. I’m sorry, but I refuse to believe any poll that shows less than 90% of the black vote going for Obama.

Unless they’re using a really small sample size, in which case the poll shouldn’t be taken seriously anyway.

I just noticed above that you said the poll was by PPP. Mystery solved. ;-) That’s no poll, that’s a piece of psychological warfare.

JimLennon on September 6, 2012 at 7:20 PM

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