Conservative groups not spending money in Pennsylvania — or Michigan?

posted at 5:21 pm on September 6, 2012 by Allahpundit

Makes sense, really.

The pro-Romney groups American Crossroads and Americans for Prosperity are pouring nearly $13 million into advertising in key states, indicating they remain eager to lend considerable financial muscle to Romney in states viewed as truly competitive.

There are no presidential campaign ads of any kind airing in Pennsylvania and Michigan, according to information provided by media trackers to the Associated Press…

“You don’t spend money if you know you’re going to win or you know you’re going to lose, and Obama hasn’t spent five cents” in Michigan, Robinson said…

Romney’s forces could be waiting to see how he and the president emerge from their national conventions, Robinson said. The Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, N.C., ends today. The Republicans met last week in Tampa, Fla., where deputy campaign director Katie Packer Gage told the Michigan delegation that Romney “will never pull out of Michigan.”

There’s no reason to spend in Pennsylvania. Realistically, the only scenario in which Romney takes it is if there’s a huge red wave that not only carries Mitt to victory in the battleground states he needs for 270 but even in a few that he doesn’t need, like PA. If the polls there start to tighten down the stretch, then they’ll almost certainly be tightening in purpler, more important states like Virginia and Colorado too. If you had $5 million to spend on ads, where would you rather roll the dice? On Virginia, where O might be up by a point in October, or in Pennsylvania, where he’s apt to be up by five points or more?

As for Michigan, O leads there right now by 2.4 points in the RCP average, although most individual polls over the past six weeks have it closer to five or six points. I think this is going to be one of Romney’s “Hail Mary” states if he falls behind in October and suddenly needs to make a desperate play for electoral votes as other battlegrounds start to slip away. To refresh your memory, here’s how centrist Dem William Galston frames the math:

The Obama 2 are Wisconsin (10 EVs), which Obama won by 14 points in 2008, and Michigan (16 EVs), where he prevailed by more than 16. Polling this year has long indicated much closer races in these states, and the selection of Paul Ryan seems to have contributed to the statistical ties shown in the most recent surveys. Winning either of these states would be a game-changer, broadening Romney’s options for reaching 270 electoral votes and narrowing Obama’s.

But for simplicity’s sake, assume that each candidate does what he must, with Romney taking Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio while Obama turns back the Republican assault in the upper Midwest. If so, Obama would have 247 electoral votes; Romney, 253. And five states would be left to decide the contest: Virginia (13), New Hampshire (4), Iowa (6), Colorado (9), and Nevada (6). Obama won all five in 2008, four by margins exceeding his national margin, the fifth (Virginia) with slightly less.

If Michigan stays reasonably close — which isn’t impossible, given the Romney family’s ties there — while most of those five true toss-ups start to drift away, then Team Mitt, the RNC, and conservative Super PACs may go all-in on Michigan as a last-ditch EV jackpot. But clearly, they’re not going to do that now. Better to carpet-bomb the toss-ups and try to move the needles there than throw for the end zone in a state won by Obama four years ago by, er, 16+ points.

And speaking of carpet-bombing, it’s time to duck and cover, my friends. Here it comes. Exit quotation:

Senior Romney-Ryan campaign officials tell Fox News the campaign will launch an enormous media offensive on Friday, the day after President Obama accepts the Democratic Party’s nomination for a second term. The push will include ad buys in several states that will cost tens of millions of dollars…

Romney-Ryan officials did not repudiate such talk; indeed, one official, in speaking to Fox News, likened the offensive that will begin Thursday to the “daisy cutter” bombs used in the Iraq war.

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In the primaries Romney played it above the fray, let his surrogates, Mini Mee Michelle and RP do the dirty work on the pop up flavors of the day and THEN, 7- 10 days out his pacs carpet bombed the closest oppo with vicious negative and sometimes out right false ads, vicious, non-stop attack, slash, burn, pillage and plunder ads all day for day after day and drove his opponents down 7 -10 points!

He had better do it again, cause if he tries the McCain train we’re screwed.

ConcealedKerry on September 6, 2012 at 7:25 PM


ConcealedKerry on September 6, 2012 at 7:26 PM

American Crossroads has raised more than $150 million. They’re not going to spend all of it in 6 states.

rockmom on September 6, 2012 at 5:28 PM

Out of curiosity… why not?

JohnGalt23 on September 6, 2012 at 7:27 PM

We have a Voter ID law in PA. That might make a difference.

jtdavies on September 6, 2012 at 7:09 PM

Don’t hold your breath. The dead will still find a way of making it to the polls in Philly. . .

There is so much outrageous outrage in Pittsburgh and Philly over the ID Law, sigh.

cmsciulli on September 6, 2012 at 7:38 PM

Michigan is competitive in the Epic-MRI poll, which is a democrat polling organization. Why give up on Michigan? It’s ripe for a take over, with a Republican Governor and State House and Senate. That makes no sense!!!

flytier on September 6, 2012 at 7:48 PM

We have a Voter ID law in PA. That might make a difference.

jtdavies on September 6, 2012 at 7:09 PM

Don’t hold your breath. The dead will still find a way of making it to the polls in Philly. . .

There is so much outrageous outrage in Pittsburgh and Philly over the ID Law, sigh.

cmsciulli on September 6, 2012 at 7:38 PM

What’s the difference between The New Black Panthers and the Pennsylvania voter ID law?

The New Black Panthers didn’t stop any legal voters from voting.

urban elitist on September 6, 2012 at 7:49 PM

Sheesh…listening to Johansen its like warping back in time and she’s arguing to gain the right to vote! She DOES know that the White House and Capital Hill pay women less on the Democratic side of the house, doesn’t she?

Highlar on September 6, 2012 at 7:51 PM

Whoops…wrong thread. Sorry all!

Highlar on September 6, 2012 at 7:52 PM

BocaJuniors on September 6, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Actually, the North Virginia adds we have been getting in MD have died down significantly just in the past few days (on both sides).

Count to 10 on September 6, 2012 at 8:16 PM

for republicans,
I am pretty sure they are running in Ohio, and they are watching the spill over. They are watching the local races and taking feedback from on the ground, using the domino effects, like a groundswell of support. Some radio areas travel to other states, like Pittsburg may be hearing them even though the buy is in Ohio. Tv is like that too.

They are going to be taking feedback from your local GOP victory centers, and there, you need to sign up to make the calls, and you are going to phone people in your own state or an important state. It really matters and it comes before paid advertising is invested.

However, PA last time elected a republican governor, so GOP-ers do have something to work for, and in PA it looks like you can over ride the urban areas.

I think the dems do different things with their money, they pay off workers more than the GOP does. They also may be waiting to see the polls until after they Convene.

Fleuries on September 6, 2012 at 8:21 PM

Pennsylvania is a much more difficult state for Republicans. There are massive concentrations of Democrats in Philly, Pittsburgh, and Erie, and the Susquehanna Valley (Scranton / Wilkes-Barre / Hazleton) has a lot of Catholics that vote Democrat by tradition, and Biden could also attract votes in Scranton. Pennsylvania is also an expensive state to advertise in the Philly and Pittsburgh media markets.

Yeah … sigh …

While I’m going to be a poll watcher again and try to help with phone banking and handing out literature, I’m still very new to the whole local/precinct/committee scene. But what I have observed from the last couple years is that while there are some staunch conservative GOP politicians on the state and local level, it’s far more common that one who was formerly a Dem switched.

Nothing wrong with that, I suppose, if it’s on the order of the epiphany that Susanna Martinez and her husband had, but too often, it’s just another way to get elected in the first place. In that respect, that’s why it often seems to me that the GOP here in PA is just another way to say Dem-lite. If there’s anything the GOP really needs to work on, it’s to strengthen the brand among all those conservative, Catholic Dems who used to be called Reagan Democrats. They’re here, and many pay scant attention to what the Democrat party has turned into, but they might give a receptive ear to the party that now reflects their views.

And I’m sorry … where Biden lived from birth to age 10 would not be much of a factor to me in deciding whether to cast a vote for him. I could care less. Strike two is that he’s a horrible example as a Catholic (one among many in D.C., I know).

PatriotGal2257 on September 6, 2012 at 8:29 PM

I just want this horrible lying Dem Convention to be over. I am so sick of the hedonistic Democrats lying and lying and lying.

They are a scourge on this once and future great Nation.

But to get to that future we need to refutiate the damage done by the godless and immoral Democrat liars.

Then we simply must govern better and be all those things that Obama pretended he was. Romney must be tranparent, he must be honest, he must even be bi-partisan… in a way that makes Democrats remember they really aren’t socialists and liars. That they too have a good and noble past.

Back back back when the Democrat party was a for decent things and union were actually for workers rights and not ruling the world… The Democrats have forgotten who they were and are so corrupt they can never be trusted with power.

But Republicans can barely be trusted. They/We can not be who we were in 2006.

This has to be a new thing… an honest thing. A two party system works because of checks and balances… we have to balance back to smart economic policies and honest by the people government.

petunia on September 6, 2012 at 10:24 PM

I think the Romney Campaign will keep a presence in Michigan, however, a collective bargaining initiative was just okayed for the November ballot by the Michigan Supreme Court. The ballot initiative will define collective bargaining rights including wages and healthcare, and will override the Michigan legislatures reforms requiring more contributions from public unions for their health care and pensions.

This ballot proposal will turn out massive numbers of public union members among teachers and police, which bodes well for the President, and bad for Governor Romney.

I sincerely hope that there is push-back from tax payers, and those in the private sector who pay double-digit percentages for their health care, and have to save for their pension, while some public employees enjoy higher wages, miniscule health care contributions, and have lavish pensions. (teachers and government employees) (not police officers)

sDs61678 on September 7, 2012 at 9:44 AM

Patience, if Michigan is in play, and it will be, than a few weeks of sustained ads will win it for Romney…the problem is letting the DNC know where you are going, and spending money too early.

Mitt will focus on the key states, and once those are secured, than move onto the others.

right2bright on September 7, 2012 at 10:04 AM

What’s the difference between The New Black Panthers and the Pennsylvania voter ID law?

The New Black Panthers didn’t stop any illegal voters from voting.

urban elitist on September 6, 2012 at 7:49 PM


TallDave on September 7, 2012 at 12:30 PM

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