Conservative groups not spending money in Pennsylvania — or Michigan?
posted at 5:21 pm on September 6, 2012 by Allahpundit
Makes sense, really.
The pro-Romney groups American Crossroads and Americans for Prosperity are pouring nearly $13 million into advertising in key states, indicating they remain eager to lend considerable financial muscle to Romney in states viewed as truly competitive.
There are no presidential campaign ads of any kind airing in Pennsylvania and Michigan, according to information provided by media trackers to the Associated Press…
“You don’t spend money if you know you’re going to win or you know you’re going to lose, and Obama hasn’t spent five cents” in Michigan, Robinson said…
Romney’s forces could be waiting to see how he and the president emerge from their national conventions, Robinson said. The Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, N.C., ends today. The Republicans met last week in Tampa, Fla., where deputy campaign director Katie Packer Gage told the Michigan delegation that Romney “will never pull out of Michigan.”
There’s no reason to spend in Pennsylvania. Realistically, the only scenario in which Romney takes it is if there’s a huge red wave that not only carries Mitt to victory in the battleground states he needs for 270 but even in a few that he doesn’t need, like PA. If the polls there start to tighten down the stretch, then they’ll almost certainly be tightening in purpler, more important states like Virginia and Colorado too. If you had $5 million to spend on ads, where would you rather roll the dice? On Virginia, where O might be up by a point in October, or in Pennsylvania, where he’s apt to be up by five points or more?
As for Michigan, O leads there right now by 2.4 points in the RCP average, although most individual polls over the past six weeks have it closer to five or six points. I think this is going to be one of Romney’s “Hail Mary” states if he falls behind in October and suddenly needs to make a desperate play for electoral votes as other battlegrounds start to slip away. To refresh your memory, here’s how centrist Dem William Galston frames the math:
The Obama 2 are Wisconsin (10 EVs), which Obama won by 14 points in 2008, and Michigan (16 EVs), where he prevailed by more than 16. Polling this year has long indicated much closer races in these states, and the selection of Paul Ryan seems to have contributed to the statistical ties shown in the most recent surveys. Winning either of these states would be a game-changer, broadening Romney’s options for reaching 270 electoral votes and narrowing Obama’s.
But for simplicity’s sake, assume that each candidate does what he must, with Romney taking Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio while Obama turns back the Republican assault in the upper Midwest. If so, Obama would have 247 electoral votes; Romney, 253. And five states would be left to decide the contest: Virginia (13), New Hampshire (4), Iowa (6), Colorado (9), and Nevada (6). Obama won all five in 2008, four by margins exceeding his national margin, the fifth (Virginia) with slightly less.
If Michigan stays reasonably close — which isn’t impossible, given the Romney family’s ties there — while most of those five true toss-ups start to drift away, then Team Mitt, the RNC, and conservative Super PACs may go all-in on Michigan as a last-ditch EV jackpot. But clearly, they’re not going to do that now. Better to carpet-bomb the toss-ups and try to move the needles there than throw for the end zone in a state won by Obama four years ago by, er, 16+ points.
And speaking of carpet-bombing, it’s time to duck and cover, my friends. Here it comes. Exit quotation:
Senior Romney-Ryan campaign officials tell Fox News the campaign will launch an enormous media offensive on Friday, the day after President Obama accepts the Democratic Party’s nomination for a second term. The push will include ad buys in several states that will cost tens of millions of dollars…
Romney-Ryan officials did not repudiate such talk; indeed, one official, in speaking to Fox News, likened the offensive that will begin Thursday to the “daisy cutter” bombs used in the Iraq war.
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Never get behind a Rhino: they’re retromingent!
Akzed on April 26, 2013 at 4:44 PM
yeah, well, he’s DONE here in PA……
ToddPA on April 26, 2013 at 4:45 PM
Bring it, you idiots.
novaculus on April 26, 2013 at 4:46 PM
I refuse to believe the polls… But it brings up an interesting strategy… Is that really how the DNC is Rino’ing the RNCs? By rigging the polls?
Senator… People like it when you do DNC things…
Skywise on April 26, 2013 at 4:48 PM
Let’s see, to get elected, one has to be pro-gun, but pro-gun control, and anti-abortion but in favor of choice, and wanting smaller government but expanding government programs…
Lukewarm…that’s the ticket.
Thought Revelation 3:16 summarized this sort of thing already.
No principles. Nothing upon which one will make a stand. Nothing. Beliefs? Compromise, instead.
No wonder we have sooo screwed ourselves.
“Yes, we can! ‘cept when we can’t.” Makes a great bumper sticker.
coldwarrior on April 26, 2013 at 4:50 PM
Pat Toomey: Must. Get. Re-elected. Must. Stay. Relevant. And. Powerful. FOREVER.
Punchenko on April 26, 2013 at 4:50 PM
This starting to look a lot like the second coming of Obamcare.
DDay on April 26, 2013 at 4:51 PM
Why vote for the likes of Toomey when you can vote for a real Democrat instead?
It’s just a no-brainer. It’s a lay-up. It’s a 2 inch put. Come on.
Curtiss on April 26, 2013 at 4:53 PM
And what about the polls that said it was only 20%… Which is why the bill failed to begin with?
Skywise on April 26, 2013 at 4:53 PM
Repealing the 17th amendment would cure a lot of ills in Washington.
Punchenko on April 26, 2013 at 4:53 PM
When they get serious about background checks for illegal aliens and drug cartels then come back.
fourdeucer on April 26, 2013 at 4:53 PM
When everybody around you turns into a RINO.
Valkyriepundit on April 26, 2013 at 4:55 PM
Why would Toomey think gun control legislation is gonna pass later this year when it’s rating even lower than 4% in the polls? Is this really about his reelection or is every politician in DC desperately trying to avoid dealing with the economy and the deficit?
Doughboy on April 26, 2013 at 4:55 PM
Something apparently lost on all the Congress critters…
coldwarrior on April 26, 2013 at 4:58 PM
I beg to differ. I liked him, how does DC change a politician so fast? Just like Rubio and immigration, they say the right things on the stump and do the opposite when they get inside.
Les in NC on April 26, 2013 at 5:01 PM
so let’s see. The gun control bill gets shot down. Liberal pollsters release a biased poll and boom gun control back on agenda.
unseen on April 26, 2013 at 5:15 PM
Toomey can sell out to the Democrats all he wants. He’s toast.
GarandFan on April 26, 2013 at 5:16 PM
yeap they have been doing it for years but like 2008 taught us the MSM was in bed with the DNC/Obama 2012 might yet teach us the pollsters are also in bed with the DNC/Obama.
Hey if people couldn’t figure it ouot after “mitt the only person that could beat Obama” per every “poll” then they might not be able to figure it out.
unseen on April 26, 2013 at 5:18 PM
Considering that there are a lot of Republicans in PA that are Democrats in disguise, for the express purpose of getting elected or getting a committee chairmanship or somehow trying to make some kind of inroad into local or state politics, this doesn’t surprise me in the least.
Toomey just aimed for the Senate (pun intended).
PatriotGal2257 on April 26, 2013 at 5:22 PM
He’ll be smeared in 2016, a presidential election year, all the same. It’ll be inferred and directly stated that he hates women, minorites, and old people. The NRA voter from the western part of the state is his base, you don’t tick off your base.
Having said that, Democrats seem to be desperate to save face with their gun grabbing base and may support a symbolic but toothless bill to do so. Perhaps we can get something in exchange, such as conceal carry permits being recognized in all 50 states.
Daemonocracy on April 26, 2013 at 5:27 PM
OK, if we’re going to have background checks, let’s apply them to voter registration, too. The process for validating gun buyers would serve perfectly for voters. GOP, you listening?
PersonFromPorlock on April 26, 2013 at 5:28 PM
Keep pushing Arlen Toomey
DanMan on April 26, 2013 at 5:28 PM
He may not be done with gun control…but he is definitely done...
katy on April 26, 2013 at 5:44 PM
Poll numbers on UBCs are misleading. First off, Manchin-Toomey wasn’t universal – it exempted most private sales (see: loophole for Lefties to exploit later). Second, I’d be interested in the seeing the poll numbers if the question was posed as such – “in order to ensure universal background checks, are you in favor of a government mandated & regulated database for all firearms purchasers?”
Bottom line – you cannot track a gun without tracking its owner.
Universal Background Checks are a flat out lie.
dugan on April 26, 2013 at 5:55 PM
There’s only one thing you can rely on Dems to do if you’re a Republican ally:
Stab you in the back!
Another Drew on April 26, 2013 at 5:57 PM
PersonFromPorlock on April 26, 2013 at 5:28 PM
Yes, why is it that you are required to present a gov’t issued picture ID to buy a gun, but to ask that of a voter is Racist?
Another Drew on April 26, 2013 at 5:59 PM
Boy, that’s great news for a Senate seat that the GOP only won narrowly in 2010. It’s a good thing that Toomey has siphoned polling approval from Pennsylvania Democrats who will support anyone who’s…against…
Hey, what do you think the odds are that PA Democrats will nominate a strident anti-gun candidate, obviating every speck of theoretical Democratic support? Nah.
HitNRun on April 26, 2013 at 6:12 PM
For those that are interested, please call Arlen Toomey!
484-809-7994
His office is now saying that something will pass and soon.
jjnco73 on April 26, 2013 at 6:25 PM
So Toomey is doing better with dems? So what? Does he actually think any of them will vote for him? And the republicans who think he isn’t sucking as bad, do they vote? Believe me. Many of us who actually voted for him will not be doing so next time around. And since he is clearly a moron, he will never figure out how he lost with such great poll numbers.
I’m voting for “Anyone but Toomey”.
ROCnPhilly on April 26, 2013 at 6:26 PM
The economy is still in the trash, terrorism is making a resurgence, we’re hopelessly in debt and this dipstick is obsessed with gun control. When you are incapable of solving the real problems you muddle around in trivia. God help us because he’s the only one that can.
rplat on April 26, 2013 at 6:31 PM
There is a phrase for this behaviour: STUCK ON STUPID.
Missilengr on April 26, 2013 at 6:39 PM
What happened was a “live boy or a dead girl”, or a Jeb Bush telling him behind the scenes to get with the program.
If people can’t see that the new “bipartisanship” ala Gang of Eight, Ryan/Guttierez, Toomey/Manchin and the like has coincided with the attempted rehabilitation of Bush and with what amounts to an informal declaration for President by Jeb Bush then they’re blind.
sartana on April 26, 2013 at 7:04 PM
These people just never stop trying to destroy our freedoms, do they? Defeated, it doesn’t matter, this crap keeps coming back. They just won’t take “no” for an answer. … and the danged RINOs go along with it.
May he be thoroughly defeated in a primary.
AZfederalist on April 26, 2013 at 7:21 PM
There is no upside for Toomey in this trash. Ask that Masshole Brown, who crossed his base. Toomey can’t afford this politically.
Quartermaster on April 26, 2013 at 7:44 PM
Beat me to it. He’s an idiot.
dominigan on April 26, 2013 at 8:17 PM
Can we please stop sight eh fiction that the extended background checks are popular, even generally?
If they were so damned popular, the bill wouldn’t have been defeated.
catmman on April 26, 2013 at 10:20 PM
If he is so wildly popular with Dems-good for him. They will not cross lines to support him! Meanwhile he has lost his base. I have sent money and supported him in the past. NEVER EVER AGAIN. All this wild support is not from Republicans–poll or no poll!
AnnaS on April 26, 2013 at 10:41 PM
I don’t know that he’s “done” but he sure is losing a lot of enthusiasm in his base. Kinda like Rubio, I suspect.
DocinPA on April 26, 2013 at 11:13 PM
Being a Progressive means never having to be consistent.
(h/t Another Drew on April 26, 2013 at 1:21 PM)
AesopFan on April 26, 2013 at 11:44 PM
Dumb and Dumber move
to shoot themselves
in the other foot!
and Americans
in the back!
“Let’s Roll”
On Watch on April 27, 2013 at 5:33 AM
Let’s be real about him losing any support from “replublicans” in PA over this bill.
A Republican in PA would be a socialist in a lot of places. A Democrat in PA is a communist in the USSR mold. They are also as corrupt as any USSR politiboro and their elections make Afghanistan elections clean and pure in comparison. Even Afghanistan doesn’t have 100% candidate totals and more votes than voters.
However, Toomey has proven his abilility to do whatever it takes to retain his power and authority regardless of what happens to the country or the next generation.
acyl72 on April 27, 2013 at 11:10 AM
Heh. The “majority of Democraps” approval will net him exactly zero votes. And the four in ten Republicans is netted out against the 12% who will now stay home. Good luck with that, dumbass.
Jaibones on April 27, 2013 at 11:45 AM