Pelosi: A House Democratic majority is “very doable” this November

posted at 4:01 pm on September 5, 2012 by Erika Johnsen

Well… her confidence, at least, is compelling. From the WashTimes:

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi isn’t a mathematician, but on Wednesday she shared with reporters an intricate arithmetical formula that shows a “very doable” path for Democrats to win back the House in the November elections.

Most political experts and race forecasters predict Democrats will pick up up only a handful of the 25 seats needed to recapture the chamber from Republicans. But the California Democrat, while speaking at a breakfast news briefing Wednesday sponsored by the Christian Science Monitor, said the task is “very doable.” And her victory plan hinges on the 63 Republican-held seats won by President Obama four years ago.

Of the 18 Obama-won seats also carried by 2004 Democratic presidential candidate, Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, Mrs. Pelosi says her party should win at least 12.

And of the 45 remaining seats, she said that, conservatively, her party should win one-third, or 15 seats. If her math proved true, the tally would be a pickup of 27 seats — two more than needed to win the House.

Uh huh. Of course, anything’s possible, I suppose, and who knows what might happen in the two remaining months until the election. But, if I absolutely had to put my money somewhere, at this moment I’d bet on the Congressional status quo remaining as-is. Just generally, with the national presidential poll numbers being so interminably close, I’m thinking Democrats may net a few House seats (and it seems like many of the pundits and pollsters concur), but I’m not sure I would count on the 27-seat swing Rep. Pelosi is looking for to jeopardize Boehner’s speakership. And as of July, at least, the Republicans are still besting their rivals in terms of campaign cash:

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) outpaced its Democratic rival in July fundraising, bringing in $11.7 million to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s (DCCC) $8.2 million.

The NRCC expanded its cash-on-hand edge as well, with $48.9 million in the bank to the DCCC’s $36.2 million. The committee whose party is in the majority usually has the edge in fundraising.

Anyhow, the Senate is in much closer contention for a change-up, with 23 Democratic and 10 Republican seats in the mix, and some tough toss-ups in presidential battleground states — gotta’ admit, I’m a wee bit more nervous about the Senate and obviously the presidency than I am about Pelosi’s prediction’s for an upset.


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