CNN poll: Romney gets convention bounce of … one point

posted at 5:21 pm on September 4, 2012 by Allahpundit

Actually, that’s well in line with the 2004 and 2008 conventions, where two candidates got a two-point bump and the other two got no bounce at all. The race is even now at 48 among likely voters, and Romney/Ryan did itself some good on discrete metrics. Favorables are up for both parts of the ticket, which will be useful if/when Democrats decide that the election hangs on convincing seniors that Paul Ryan wants to murder them:

Among likely voters, Mitt’s favorables are actually now higher than Obama’s. (Obligatory caveats: That may well change after the Democratic convention, and O’s favorables are still far better among registered voters.) Romney’s also increased his lead on the economy against Obama among likelies, from four points last week to six today. And he’s seen a nice turnaround on some questions involving core presidential traits too:

On the main head-to-head question against Obama, Romney led by three among independent likely voters last week. This week?

If you’re wondering how Romney can lead by double digits among independent likely voters and still only be tied with Obama, that’s … a good question. CNN doesn’t publish the partisan split among their sample, but the fact that they’re including leaners with the two parties in this data set probably means (a) the “independent” column is comprised of true independents, which is a small group, and (b) the sample must lean a few points to the left. D+2 or D+3 is possible on election day, but anything beyond that seems far-fetched. Sure would be nice if we had the split to judge.

So far, so good. But alas, my friends, in Eeyoreworld the news is never truly “good.” A troubling footnote:

Granted, that’s registered voters, not likelies, but CNN’s pollster has asked that same question after 12 different conventions dating back to 1984 and the numbers have been net positive every time. Even the 2004 Democratic convention, which gave John Kerry no bounce, saw him net +3 on this particular query. Check out the gender and party splits:

Again, these are registered voters, but these numbers aren’t supposed to be negative. Among women the response is -17(!) on the more/less likely question and among indies it’s -5. Overall, 56 percent of registereds say the GOP spent too much time criticizing the other side versus 34 percent who said they maintained the right balance between criticism and saying positive things about themselves. I’ll be awfully curious to see how that same question shakes out for O given that the Democratic convention promises to be just as negative as the GOP’s, if not more so. Exit question: Er, if people reacted to the convention this badly, how is it that Romney’s favorables are up (among likelies) and he has a small bounce? Surely the gap between likely voters and registered voters isn’t that insanely wide.


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If you look at p.4 of that CNN poll, their sample looks to be R+3.
432 Registered Republicans
391 Registered Democrats

AngusMc on September 4, 2012 at 5:58 PM

That totals 823.

The numbers used in the poll were 1005 total interviews, 877 RV, 735 LV. Page 4 numbers don’t match up, so we’ll need to know which figure was weighted and which one was actual.

forest on September 4, 2012 at 6:08 PM

The CNN poll,along with most others have Romney leading among independents, you wonder why there should have such a large difference in the opposite direction for the Pi$$ Poor Polls

bayview on September 4, 2012 at 6:05 PM

I guess there are Independents, and then there are Democrats pretending to be Independents.

Terrye on September 4, 2012 at 6:08 PM

D+2 or D+3 is possible on election day, but anything beyond that seems far-fetched. Sure would be nice if we had the split to judge.

Romney leads independents by 10 pts. in this poll and he only ties Obama? No Fluking way. It ain’t a D+2 or 3 poll, it’s a D+10 poll. My adjusted numbers accounting for current party enthusiasm using this poll’s data:

Romney: 53.1
Obama: 43.1

NotCoach on September 4, 2012 at 6:09 PM

The CNN poll,along with most others have Romney leading among independents, you wonder why there should have such a large difference in the opposite direction for the Pi$$ Poor Polls

bayview on September 4, 2012 at 6:05 PM

With very small subsamples, there is a potential for major distortions to settle in. For example, at for about a week in October 2008, the IDB/TIPP daily tracking poll had McCain winning 18-30 year olds by 20 points over Obama, but without that number changing the top line results.

AngusMc on September 4, 2012 at 6:09 PM

Conventions typically lead to obvious 10 points bounces. Major fail.
Romney and his team seemed obsessed the constraining the message; hence, among other things, a galvanizing dynamic Palin did not speak. There was little drama in the convention, little to elicit interest to get the viewership up. For example, not to hit on Palin again, but she could of introduced Ryan, and got twice as many people to watch Ryan, instead only a paltry 20 million watched.
And Romney’s speech, yes, it was bad. A what’s the deal with the ending? Here Mitt left his view on climate change open ended, where Mitt doesn’t spell out what his opinion was, but just that, Mitt implied, that he wouldn’t give a hoot about it (the rising oceans, hence AGW). At the end, honestly, and I’m totally against the climate change lunacy, all Mitt succeeded in doing was to appear to be selfish and superficial (by putting our personal pocketbook interests above theoretically greater concerns). Idiotic.
It’s probably too late, but Romney needs to stop trying to constrain his message. That’s obvious to the voters that he is constraining, and it is off-putting. Even the Ryan pick seemed to be part of this constrained campaign: the Ryan pick was like just a bit of calculated constrained unrestraint. And get off economy sometimes, talk about the issues that matter to a lot of people: gay marriage and immigration.
That is a problem with Romney. We all seem to be pitching in saying what we think his strategy should be. But other candidates don’t need a highly manufactured strategy. They are just themselves, like Reagan. They run their campaign on their beliefs. Not Romney.

anotherJoe on September 4, 2012 at 6:11 PM

I think people are just sick of politics at this point.

Terrye on September 4, 2012 at 5:45 PM

Given that the presidential campaign now effectively begins the day after the midterm elections, I can’t say I blame them.

JimLennon on September 4, 2012 at 6:11 PM

Romney is finally waking up to the reality. Come November we will be finally rid of this pest. One can only hope he won’t gird up again and run for 2016.

promachus on September 4, 2012 at 6:08 PM

What reality? The reality that he is running neck and neck against an unpopular president that most people do not believe deserves reelection?

I bet Romney likes that reality better than Loser Barry does.

BTW, I hear there was a poll in the Hill today that stated that a vast majority of people really do not think Obama deserves reelection..when you are and the rest of Obama’s cult going to wake up to that reality?

Terrye on September 4, 2012 at 6:11 PM

Exit question: Er, if people reacted to the convention this badly, how is it that Romney’s favorables are up (among likelies) and he has a small bounce? Surely the gap between likely voters and registered voters isn’t that insanely wide.

I find it amazing that anyone who actually watched the RNC last week would say that it was too negative. I kept watching WAITING for them to take it to Barry. But, I suspect these people didn’t actually watch…they just relied on talking heads to tell them what to think.

changer1701 on September 4, 2012 at 6:12 PM

Given that the presidential campaign now effectively begins the day after the midterm elections, I can’t say I blame them.

JimLennon on September 4, 2012 at 6:11 PM

I agree.

Terrye on September 4, 2012 at 6:12 PM

Looks like they pushed leaners hard to choose Republican or Democrat. Doing the math, if they interviewed 877 registered voters, 432R and 391D, that leaves only 54 registered independents?

AngusMc on September 4, 2012 at 6:07 PM

Yes, I’ve been seeing this quite a bit, especially in Michigan. The pollsters reduce the Independents to less than 4% when they normally have around 30%. Independents are moving toward Romney and the pollsters running out of tricks. So in order to get their polls to appear credible, they boost Republican and also Democrats while eliminating the Independent vote. This will lower the % for Romney.

MrX on September 4, 2012 at 6:12 PM

Romney leads independents by 10 pts. in this poll and he only ties Obama? No Fluking way.

NotCoach on September 4, 2012 at 6:09 PM

If you look at the poll, CNN pushed independents to choose D or R, leaving the pool of true independents as only 6-7% of the example. So a 10-point lead in that tiny percent would not amount to much.

Some pollsters push independents pretty hard to choose one way or the other, but I’ve never seen it taken to that extreme.

AngusMc on September 4, 2012 at 6:12 PM

Uh-oh. barack campaign dismissing as “old news” his gaffe today giving his grade on the economy as an “incomplete.” Being the dumb-ass kid in class who doesn’t get any work done must not be polling well.

Rational Thought on September 4, 2012 at 5:41 PM

Wait. Didn’t that statement come out this morning from an interview done last night? So this morning is old news? Wow. That must not be polling well at all.

Dem: “Yeah he said incomplete, but that was soooo last night.”

AZfederalist on September 4, 2012 at 6:13 PM

1 point?

I don’t believe it.

Philo Beddoe on September 4, 2012 at 6:14 PM

I would never, ever tell a pollster I was voting for Mittens.

Undecided, maybe.

Probably say Obama, just to mess with them.

Let them figure it out on November 7.

Bruno Strozek on September 4, 2012 at 5:29 PM

I do pretty much the same thing. Never let the enemy know what your planning to do.

PrettyD_Vicious on September 4, 2012 at 5:40 PM

Why do you want to make support for our side seem weaker than it is? How does it help us to dampen enthusiasm for our side?

Basilsbest on September 4, 2012 at 6:14 PM

The thing I noticed about the poll was the Mitt had a 22 point lead amongst indies on the economy.

ConservativePartyNow on September 4, 2012 at 6:14 PM

If you’re wondering how Romney can lead by double digits among independent likely voters and still only be tied with Obama, that’s … a good question. CNN doesn’t publish the partisan split among their sample, but the fact that they’re including leaners with the two parties in this data set probably means (a) the “independent” column is comprised of true independents, which is a small group, and (b) the sample must lean a few points to the left. D+2 or D+3 is possible on election day, but anything beyond that seems far-fetched. Sure would be nice if we had the split to judge.

CNN did publish the percentages of Democrats, Republicans, and Indies who chose each candidate, which were

Dem Obama 93 Romney 5
Rep Obama 7 Romney 92
Ind Obama 42 Romney 52

If we back-calculate (using matrix algebra) the D/R/I percentages that lead to a 48-48 tie, we get 25% D, 20% R, and 55% I. This is a highly unusual sample, because the real electorate will have more partisans and fewer independents. However, given the nearly equal and opposite partisan vote, but the advantage for Romney among Indies, the denominator determinant is close to zero, and round-off error could lead to major swings in the back-calculated partisan split.

This problem is evident when using the internals to back-calculate sample split between Liberals, Conservatives, and Moderates. According to CNN, Obama wins Liberals 93-5 and Moderates 59-38, and Romney wins Conservatives 78-19. Back-calculating from a 48-48 tie leads to 100% Liberals, -57% Conservatives, and 257% Moderates. A mighty strange sample we’ve got here, or maybe a wee bit of fuzzy math.

Steve Z on September 4, 2012 at 6:14 PM

Conventions typically lead to obvious 10 points bounces. Major fail.
Romney and his team seemed obsessed the constraining the message; hence, among other things, a galvanizing dynamic Palin did not speak. There was little drama in the convention, little to elicit interest to get the viewership up. For example, not to hit on Palin again, but she could of introduced Ryan, and got twice as many people to watch Ryan, instead only a paltry 20 million watched.
And Romney’s speech, yes, it was bad. A what’s the deal with the ending? Here Mitt left his view on climate change open ended, where Mitt doesn’t spell out what his opinion was, but just that, Mitt implied, that he wouldn’t give a hoot about it (the rising oceans, hence AGW). At the end, honestly, and I’m totally against the climate change lunacy, all Mitt succeeded in doing was to appear to be selfish and superficial (by putting our personal pocketbook interests above theoretically greater concerns). Idiotic.
It’s probably too late, but Romney needs to stop trying to constrain his message. That’s obvious to the voters that he is constraining, and it is off-putting. Even the Ryan pick seemed to be part of this constrained campaign: the Ryan pick was like just a bit of calculated constrained unrestraint. And get off economy sometimes, talk about the issues that matter to a lot of people: gay marriage and immigration.
That is a problem with Romney. We all seem to be pitching in saying what we think his strategy should be. But other candidates don’t need a highly manufactured strategy. They are just themselves, like Reagan. They run their campaign on their beliefs. Not Romney.

anotherJoe on September 4, 2012 at 6:11 PM

It has been a long long time since any convention got someone a ten point bounce..and I do not think that Romney’s speech was bad..in fact, if you bother to read the poll Romney’s favorables are up after his speech..not done.

And get off economy sometimes, talk about the issues that matter to a lot of people: gay marriage and immigration.

That is a joke, right?

Terrye on September 4, 2012 at 6:15 PM

Rational Thought on September 4, 2012 at 5:41 PM

Wait. Didn’t that statement come out this morning from an interview done last night? So this morning is old news? Wow. That must not be polling well at all.

Dem: “Yeah he said incomplete, but that was soooo last night.”

AZfederalist on September 4, 2012 at 6:13 PM

Yeah, I think the way he gets out of it now is to wave his hand toward Biden: “He completes me.”

de rigueur on September 4, 2012 at 6:15 PM

But, I suspect these people didn’t actually watch…they just relied on talking heads to tell them what to think.

changer1701 on September 4, 2012 at 6:12 PM

Pretty much. After all, if they were watching the alphabet channels, they only got 2 hours per night and a lot of that was the talking heads talking over the speakers. … and PMSDNC didn’t even show any of the minority speakers like Mia Love.

AZfederalist on September 4, 2012 at 6:17 PM

The “budget savior” with the boyish looks lied his a$$ off. He lied about the GM plant in his district, lied about Simpson Bowles. He was a disaster. Even the diehard conservatives couldn’t defend his lies.

HotAirLib on September 4, 2012 at 6:06 PM

Enjoy that Koolaid.

Kataklysmic on September 4, 2012 at 6:18 PM

Forward!!!!!!

Over the cliff America.

I can hear the Abortion God ****Obama now (in his speech) leading the leftists in the religious Black church scary borderline Nazi like FORWARD!!!!!

The choice is yours America………over the cliff or edging away from the abyss?

****isnt it ironic that Obama not only has been sold out to real abortions since his days in the Illinois Senate but he’s now trying to ABORT AMERICA before it comes to full term?

PappyD61 on September 4, 2012 at 6:19 PM

The “budget savior” with the boyish looks lied his a$$ off. He lied about the GM plant in his district, lied about Simpson Bowles. He was a disaster. Even the diehard conservatives couldn’t defend his lies.

HotAirLib on September 4, 2012 at 6:06 PM

He did not lie..there was nothing that was not factual in anything he said..the problem is you just can not handle the truth..Democrats think that anyone who speaks the plain truth is lying, because they themselves are liars.

And btw, after that convention, Ryan is looking a lot better to voters than Biden is.

Terrye on September 4, 2012 at 6:20 PM

Firefox strong/ emphasis placement not working again…..my apologies for the bold……ugh.

PappyD61 on September 4, 2012 at 6:20 PM

Rachel Madcow and Politi-hack told me Ryan tellz liez!!11!!

Kataklysmic on September 4, 2012 at 6:22 PM

If you look at the poll, CNN pushed independents to choose D or R, leaving the pool of true independents as only 6-7% of the example. So a 10-point lead in that tiny percent would not amount to much.

Some pollsters push independents pretty hard to choose one way or the other, but I’ve never seen it taken to that extreme.

AngusMc on September 4, 2012 at 6:12 PM

That’s a good point, but it is still a D+ poll. Perhaps this was their way of getting from D+10 to D+3. Besides not reflecting the fact that self identified independents make of 25 to 30% of the electorate, all of these polls ignore the reality of party enthusiasm. Democrats are in the toilet and right now it is actually an R+6 election. That will close up before the election, but Dems will not surpass Republicans in enthusiasm. Low enthusiasm guarantees low party turnout. That’s why I readjust every single one of these garbage D+ polls, as long as they give me results based on party affiliation.

NotCoach on September 4, 2012 at 6:23 PM

He did not lie..there was nothing that was not factual in anything he said..the problem is you just can not handle the truth..Democrats think that anyone who speaks the plain truth is lying, because they themselves are liars.

And btw, after that convention, Ryan is looking a lot better to voters than Biden is.

Terrye on September 4, 2012 at 6:20 PM

Don’t forget the video proving Ryan correct:http://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2012/09/04/video_obama_peddles_false_hope_over_janesville_gm_plant_in_2008

tbrickert on September 4, 2012 at 6:23 PM

tbrickert on September 4, 2012 at 6:23 PM

They should put that in an ad…in fact, they should do ads with proof for all of Ryan’s claims. Let the Democrat argue with that.

Terrye on September 4, 2012 at 6:25 PM

Again, remember the marxist campaigned all last week and was so desperate to campaign Romney beat him to Louisiana. This week Romney is not out campaigning, he’s debate prepping and relaxing. The dems have been ridiculously hateful this week so far even for them. Couple that with strange polling samples of publicly available polls having Ronmney comfortably leading independents but yet showing an overall tie, I suspect the internals are showing a Romney landslide in the making.

bgibbs1000 on September 4, 2012 at 6:26 PM

in fact, they should do ads with proof for all of Ryan’s claims. Let the Democrat argue with that.

They wouldn’t. Just ignore, deflect, equivocate or distract since they have no logical argument nor evidence to support their claims.

hawkeye54 on September 4, 2012 at 6:30 PM

The “budget savior” with the boyish looks lied his a$$ off. He lied about the GM plant in his district, lied about Simpson Bowles. He was a disaster. Even the diehard conservatives couldn’t defend his lies.

HotAirLib on September 4, 2012 at 6:06 PM

Actually, the lying of the “fact checkers” was proven in two different posts here that linked to multiple sources, including a youtube video of Obama outside the Janesville plant. Or do you only read and absorb what fits your narrative?

“Fact Checkers” are the media’s way to trying to fool us into thinking they are objective. Check this out, not that it will get through your Kool-aid addled brain:

http://online.wsj.com/article/best_of_the_web_today.html

PastorJon on September 4, 2012 at 6:31 PM

hawkeye54 on September 4, 2012 at 6:30 PM

You mean “HE LIED!!!” isn’t evidence?

forest on September 4, 2012 at 6:32 PM

They wouldn’t. Just ignore, deflect, equivocate or distract since they have no logical argument nor evidence to support their claims.

hawkeye54 on September 4, 2012 at 6:30 PM

Or they will get a fact checker to say he didn’t say what we heard him say.

tbrickert on September 4, 2012 at 6:32 PM

They wouldn’t. Just ignore, deflect, equivocate or distract since they have no logical argument nor evidence to support their claims.

hawkeye54 on September 4, 2012 at 6:30 PM

They couldn’t use “old” or “stupid” to attempt to discredit Ryan, so that only left them with “evil” which they’re obviously struggling with.

Kataklysmic on September 4, 2012 at 6:33 PM

HotAirLib on September 4, 2012 at 6:06 PM

don’t you moon bats ever take that poor chickens feelings into consideration?

tom daschle concerned on September 4, 2012 at 6:35 PM

Oh, I used addled. I hope HAL knows what that word means . . .

PastorJon on September 4, 2012 at 6:38 PM

mittens sux even more than ever (hate to say it….worse than bambi) ABRO (ANYBODY BUT ROMNEY OR OBAMA)

Pragmatic on September 4, 2012 at 6:39 PM

Or they will get a fact checker to say he didn’t say what we heard him say.

You betcha!

They couldn’t use “old” or “stupid” to attempt to discredit Ryan, so that only left them with “evil” which they’re obviously struggling with

I don’t see how they could possibly struggle with “evil” since that is a common pronoun they use to describe the GOP, wholly or singularly. And they’ve made themselves believe it to!

hawkeye54 on September 4, 2012 at 6:39 PM

With very small subsamples, there is a potential for major distortions to settle in. For example, at for about a week in October 2008, the IDB/TIPP daily tracking poll had McCain winning 18-30 year olds by 20 points over Obama, but without that number changing the top line results.

AngusMc on September 4, 2012 at 6:09 PM

Same trend in 3 different state polls with that big a margin in each? I think in at least one of the polls PPP said that a Barry lead among independents was consistently found in ALL PPP polls in this election.

bayview on September 4, 2012 at 6:40 PM

And get off economy sometimes, talk about the issues that matter to a lot of people: gay marriage and immigration.

That is a joke, right?

Terrye on September 4, 2012 at 6:15 PM

No, I think I’ve discussed this with you before, Terry. Many independents with hybrid ideologies (left / right fusions) often tend to lean Democratic but also hold strong views against gay marriage and illegal immigration. We’ve already lost the meager Hispanic vote, and nobody is going to switch their vote to Romney based on Mitt’s quietude or “evolver” status on gay marriage. Mitt needs to be vocal to get these voters. So, no joke at all.

anotherJoe on September 4, 2012 at 6:41 PM

hawkeye54 on September 4, 2012 at 6:30 PM

You mean “HE LIED!!!” isn’t evidence?

forest on September 4, 2012 at 6:32 PM

Okay, ya got me on that one.

hawkeye54 on September 4, 2012 at 6:43 PM

This is another poll that has mixed results…however, one thing is consistent..Romney is improving, Obama is losing ground.

ABC POLL

Terrye on September 4, 2012 at 6:45 PM

Is Bain really a gang of corporate buccaneers who plunder their ill-gotten gains by outsourcing, euthanizing feeble portfolio companies and giving cancer to the spouses of those whom they fired? If so, union bosses, government retirees, liberal foundations and elite universities thrive on the wages of Bain’s economic Darwinism.

J_Crater on September 4, 2012 at 5:28 PM

Why is there no tv ad? Just read these institutions out loud. Nuff said. End of story.

Robb on September 4, 2012 at 6:45 PM

“Fact Checkers” are the media’s way to trying to fool us into thinking they are objective. Check this out, not that it will get through your Kool-aid addled brain:

http://online.wsj.com/article/best_of_the_web_today.html

PastorJon on September 4, 2012 at 6:31 PM

This is not without precedent. If you recall “Pravda” and “Izhvestia” mean “Truth” and “News” The Russians used to riff on that saying that in Pravda there is no Iszhvestia and in Izvestia there is no Pravda.

AZfederalist on September 4, 2012 at 6:46 PM

No, I think I’ve discussed this with you before, Terry. Many independents with hybrid ideologies (left / right fusions) often tend to lean Democratic but also hold strong views against gay marriage and illegal immigration. We’ve already lost the meager Hispanic vote, and nobody is going to switch their vote to Romney based on Mitt’s quietude or “evolver” status on gay marriage. Mitt needs to be vocal to get these voters. So, no joke at all.

anotherJoe on September 4, 2012 at 6:41 PM

Among Independents, the economy is the number one issue..and it is also the number one issue among hispanics. I do agree that the GOP lost some support among hispanics, but I think that had more to do with what they perceived to be the tenure of the debate than immigration itself..right now one of the groups that Obama has lost a lot of enthusiasm from are the hispanics..they want jobs and they intend to be traditional when it comes to gay marriage.

No one has gotten a big bounce from a convention in many years..and the truth is there are not all that many votes up for grabs anymore.

Terrye on September 4, 2012 at 6:49 PM

PastorJon on September 4, 2012 at 6:31 PM

Sorry Pastor but he did lie. He is a liar that has lost all credibility amongst the middle of the road Americans.

Then again, how come he didn’t call out Obama immediately the plant was closed? Where are the letters the lying congressman wrote to Obama reminding him of his promise to keep this plant opened? After all, that is what he is paid to do.

Oh i get it, those workers were union thugs looking for a government bailout that’s why.

HotAirLib on September 4, 2012 at 6:50 PM

anotherJoe on September 4, 2012 at 6:41 PM

I am of the opinion you really have no idea what you’re talking about. This is a referendum election on Obama, and he is lucky if he has 40% of the vote right now. Using bad polling to support your position does make for a strong argument.

NotCoach on September 4, 2012 at 6:54 PM

HotAirLib on September 4, 2012 at 6:50 PM

You’re like a clown showing up at a classic car convention telling automobile enthusiasts how they wouldn’t know a classic car from a red clown nose. One has to wonder what it is you think you are accomplishing with your lunatic rantings in a place where 99.9% of the people think you’re full of shite.

“Oh no, HAL is spouting leftist talking points! Hide the wymyns and chyldryns!”

NotCoach on September 4, 2012 at 6:59 PM

America is on the half-way point of the fundamental transformation to a centrally planned economy. That is what Obama means when he grades himself an incomplete. Or when they talk about rebuilding the economy from the ground up. Or the need to move Forward, not back to “the failed policies” of Republicans.

The first term put the new bureaucracies in place – ObamaCare, Frank-Dodd, etc. – that will be staffed with marxist academics and activists, who will write the rules for every corner of society, direct investment decisions, pick winners and losers.

That will all go into effect in the second term, beyond the control of Congress, along with Mussolini/Peron-style corporatism (“public-private partnerships”) and more direct nationalizations – that is what Obama means he wants to do what he did with GM for the rest of industry.

Obama is not incompetent or in over his head. He knows exactly what he is doing and has so far achieved everything he set out to do. He will do everything he can, damn the rule of law, to be reelected one way or the other, if necessary by fraud and manufactured violence. The groundwork is laid with efforts against voter ID etc. Ultimately Eric Holder may decide this election.

RasThavas on September 4, 2012 at 7:02 PM

Sorry Pastor but he did lie. He is a liar that has lost all credibility amongst the middle of the road Americans.

HotAirLib on September 4, 2012 at 6:50 PM

No, he did not lie. Obama, on the other hand did, he went and pandered to those people during 2008 essentially telling them that if they voted for him, he would fight to keep that plant open. Now, you can spin all you want and say he didn’t specifically say that plant, but then if we accept that, then Obama was nothing but a pandering pol engaging in deception to get the votes of those people in Janesville.

So you see, the real liar is you god, Obama.

You aren’t the sharpest knife in the drawer, are you? /of course not, you are a lib.

AZfederalist on September 4, 2012 at 7:02 PM

Sorry Pastor but he did lie. He is a liar that has lost all credibility amongst the middle of the road Americans.

Then again, how come he didn’t call out Obama immediately the plant was closed? Where are the letters the lying congressman wrote to Obama reminding him of his promise to keep this plant opened? After all, that is what he is paid to do.

Oh i get it, those workers were union thugs looking for a government bailout that’s why.

HotAirLib on September 4, 2012 at 6:50 P

You honestly do not know what you are talking about do you? Did you even listen to Ryan…or did you just sit there gaped mouth and drooling and believe whatever you were told to believe.

Ryan never accused Obama of closing the plant…he said that Obama went to a plant in his hometown that was supposed to close and he told those people that he would retool plants like that to rebuild fuel efficient cars so that they could stay open another hundred years…there is video of Obama saying exactly what Ryan said he said, when Ryan said he said it…and yet you call Ryan a liar…that is just stupid.

Obama made promises he did not keep. That is the truth. That plant actually closed in 2009..in fact the doors were not completely shut until 2011 and it was never retooled at all. Why exactly do you think Obama was even there?

And Ryan told the truth about the debt commission report too..Obama ordered it, ignored it and did nothing. Ryan did not vote for it himself, but he did come up with an alternative..something Obama did not do.

No, Ryan is not lying here..you just live in a bubble. What are you going to say if they actually use footage of Obama at that plant in an ad?

Terrye on September 4, 2012 at 7:02 PM

Personally, I believe we live in a country where there are some people out there still waiting to make a decision. With the conventions so close together, there are some who are just waiting to see what the Democrats do this week.

The Republicans raised the bar last week. This week, the Democrats have an opportunity to match the sort of smooth rhetoric the Republicans did last week, or be obnoxious, like they usually are. With 2 Nazi comments already, and it’s only the first day, I can’t imagine the Democrats doing the right thing. If that’s the case, I’ll bet Romney gets his bounce Next Week and it’s going to be a good one.

bflat879 on September 4, 2012 at 7:04 PM

One has to wonder what it is you think you are accomplishing with your lunatic rantings

NotCoach on September 4, 2012 at 6:59 PM

It’s engaging in a very desperate form of wishcasting “I want the electorate to believe Ryan is a liar so I’m just going to say tht they do!!” I expect it to get much worse between now and 11/6.

Kataklysmic on September 4, 2012 at 7:08 PM

Hate, hate and still more hate. That’s all Obama and his minions have.

VorDaj on September 4, 2012 at 7:10 PM

This week, the Democrats have an opportunity to match the sort of smooth rhetoric the Republicans did last week, or be obnoxious, like they usually are. With 2 Nazi comments already, and it’s only the first day, I can’t imagine the Democrats doing the right thing. If that’s the case, I’ll bet Romney gets his bounce Next Week and it’s going to be a good one.

bflat879 on September 4, 2012 at 7:04 PM

Well the Dems have started by reminding us the government is the only thing we all belong to

tbrickert on September 4, 2012 at 7:10 PM

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/09/obamas-popularity-dips-underwater-for-romney-a-faint-favorability-bounce/

tbrickert on September 4, 2012 at 6:51 PM

Barry now trying to imitate Teddy Kennedy?

bayview on September 4, 2012 at 7:13 PM

Terrye on September 4, 2012 at 6:45 PM

interesting sample here:
overall obama fav underwater 47-49
and something seems odd. they have the M/F breakdown as
M 50-47 ( net pos?)
F 46-50 (underater?)
so he’s net fav with men? and underwater with women? AND to add to that it indicates then that the sample is 80% women therefore? more info here is gonna be interesting. if we assume they simply reversed the F/Ms then we have to assume 80% (or some very lopsided weighting) of men?

t8stlikchkn on September 4, 2012 at 7:14 PM

With 2 Nazi comments already, and it’s only the first day, I can’t imagine the Democrats doing the right thing. If that’s the case, I’ll bet Romney gets his bounce Next Week and it’s going to be a good one.

bflat879 on September 4, 2012 at 7:04 PM

So why is it that the Republicans are constantly told to tone down the rhetoric or the precious independents will be driven into the arms of the dims?

AZfederalist on September 4, 2012 at 7:15 PM

HotAirLib on September 4, 2012 at 6:06 PM

Aw, wook, another widdle twoll sent to do Obama’s bidding by Organizing for America, complete with predictable, brainless lefty talking points!

OK, troll. Tell us, why should we vote for your sociopathic punk of a candidate? No, no, I want you to share that with us all. Don’t tell us that Ryan’s a liar, or Mitt is rich, or that they hate women.

Tell us, what does your Marxist tool have to offer that we want four more years of?

Go ahead. You’re on the clock.

Right Mover on September 4, 2012 at 7:17 PM

Well the Dems have started by reminding us the government is the only thing we all belong to

tbrickert on September 4, 2012 at 7:10 PM

This now officially bizarro world. I cannot believe that they would even produce a video like that, well yeah I guess I can. Jeesh.

bgibbs1000 on September 4, 2012 at 7:17 PM

There’s no bounce because everyone’s decided already how they will vote.

gordo on September 4, 2012 at 7:18 PM

Among Independents, the economy is the number one issue..

Terrye on September 4, 2012 at 6:49 PM

Yes, but that’s not the only issue. And you allude to another point: not only will forceful appeals to traditional marriage gain independent voters directly, but much of O’s base, as blacks and Hispanics, will be more dispirited if O’s pro-gay position is highlighted.

anotherJoe on September 4, 2012 at 7:18 PM

Terrye on September 4, 2012 at 7:02 PM

Very funny. All the fact checkers and independent journalists have all admitted Ryan lied. However you want me to take the word of an anonymous far right partisan over their word correct? Okkkk

Anyway where are the letters Ryan wrote the president reminding him of his “promise” to keep the plant opened? Show me the letters or any video of Ryan calling out Obama.

HotAirLib on September 4, 2012 at 7:19 PM

Considering the media was relentlessly negative in its coverage, this isn’t surprising.

We’re going to experience the most vile, vicious, negative press coverage in our lifetime (until the next time).

First, because the pressies are getting more & more frustrated with their inability to consistently deliver power to their preferred candidates.

And, Second, because their guy is the “first black president” – - – as far as they’re concerned, all he has to do to deserve re-election is keep breathing (which means anyone who wants to bring up, you know, “performance” is a racist).

BD57 on September 4, 2012 at 7:20 PM

Well the Dems have started by reminding us the government is the only thing we all belong to

tbrickert on September 4, 2012 at 7:10 PM

can we exclude the 47% who dont pay any fed income tax? xscommuinicate them maybe? take their vote away? ok, i was….kidding.

t8stlikchkn on September 4, 2012 at 7:20 PM

I wonder if it’s maybe because there are really not very many undecided voters out there. A lot of us already decided how we would vote in this presidential election the day after the last one.

Dan_Yul on September 4, 2012 at 7:23 PM

Very funny. All the fact checkers and independent journalists have all admitted Ryan lied. However you want me to take the word of an anonymous far right partisan over their word correct? ….
HotAirLib on September 4, 2012 at 7:19 PM

i think he just wants to look at the statements ryan made, and together examine them. present evidence of the “lies” ya know? actually DO the work. rather than be spoon on fed something from someone else. tjhose folks could be wrong, right? THYE could be lieing right? i mean its possible; lets see! we can figure this out together maybe. WORK for it. are you game? which statement do you have the most problem with? which “lie”? lets see where we go.

t8stlikchkn on September 4, 2012 at 7:23 PM

It has been a long long time since any convention got someone a ten point bounce..

Really? Google is your friend, Terrye:

After the 2008 DNC

In the head-to-head race, Obama leads 50%-43% among registered voters. In the USA TODAY Poll taken Aug. 21-23, the Illinois senator held a 4-percentage-point lead.

After the 2008 RNC

In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote. The survey of 1,022 adults, including 959 registered voters.

We know you Mittbots are math challenged but that is an 11 point turnaround. And it wasn’t because of McCain.

McCain’s acceptance speech Thursday received lower ratings than the one Obama gave a week earlier: 15% called McCain’s speech “excellent” compared with 35% for Obama.

Come on, bluegill, you can tell us all who caused that turnaround. Cat got your fins, er mouth? Come on, say it. The bile in your mouth preventing you? Don’t worry, I’ll spell it for you: P-A-L-I-N. That’s right, it was an electrifying, eye-popping speech by the Snowbilly that was watched by 37 million that overnight turned the floundering McCain campaign around and put the liberals and their MSM allies into sheer panic mode.

Before the convention, Republicans by 47%-39% were less enthusiastic than usual about voting. Now, they are more enthusiastic by 60%-24%, a sweeping change that narrows a key Democratic advantage.

There is a reason why the attacks on Mrs. Palin have continued to this very day. She can “bring-home-the-bacon” like no one else. The Romney campaign’s failing to use her shows either their stupidity or pettiness, or both. So they get their big whooping one point bounce. Whoop-de-do.

Tarnsman on September 4, 2012 at 7:23 PM

This ain’t hard to figure out.

A lot of Dems stopped buying the “Romney is evil” line, and are now admitting he’s a very decent person. IIRC, even some of the A-Holes at Slate are now copping to this.

But those same Dems are not going to vote for him and are owning up to it by saying the RNC made them “less likely”, whereas earlier, they gave a stock “I dunno”.

The common denominator from the moderate/like Barry crowd is that they give 0 every conceivable break, not just because they feel bad for him, but because they don’t want to admit they were conned in ’08.

Moderates think they’re the smartest group in the game. Voting against Barry is a reflection on their piss-poor judgement. That’s why Eastwood was trying to give them an easy out.

budfox on September 4, 2012 at 7:26 PM

Very funny. All the fact checkers and independent journalists have all admitted Ryan lied.

All the “independent” fact-checkers who are in reality in the tank and bought and paid for by the Obama campaign (much like “HotAirLib” herself), that is.

Face it. You’re afraid. We can smell your fear. It is palpable. The more threatened and desperate libs like you feel, the more shrill you become. Face it, if you weren’t afraid, you’d be over on Daily Kos where you belong, with all the other far-left lunatics.

Right Mover on September 4, 2012 at 7:27 PM

Drudge reporting breaking ABCNews poll:

Obama at the LOWEST personal approval rating of his presidency, down among women, underwater in personal approval.

but all the experts have been telling us Romney is so unpopular and Obama is so cool! they can’t be wrong!

AirForceCane on September 4, 2012 at 7:31 PM

And Romney’s speech, yes, it was bad.

Yes, it was bad, in fact, Romney’s speeches are so famously and consistently bad that I often get media interviews to talk about the sublime badness of Romney’s speeches: http://www.cbc.ca/allpointswest/2012/09/04/romneys-rhetoric/

So keep up the bad speeches, Romney! I just wish you weren’t pulling the whole damned party down with you and stuff.

casuist on September 4, 2012 at 7:36 PM

Why can’t they believe Ann lovvvvvvvessss womennnnnn?

HotAirLib on September 4, 2012 at 6:06 PM

On her best day, the current FLOTUS is 100x more repugnant than Ann Romney. Now that portly, elitist hypocrite wants to ration what kind of food is sold in our supermarkets.

What is it you don’t like about Ann Romney. Let me guess, is it that she’s too much of a corporate wife for you?

Right Mover on September 4, 2012 at 7:37 PM

Very funny. All the fact checkers and independent journalists have all admitted Ryan lied. However you want me to take the word of an anonymous far right partisan over their word correct? Okkkk

Anyway where are the letters Ryan wrote the president reminding him of his “promise” to keep the plant opened? Show me the letters or any video of Ryan calling out Obama.

HotAirLib on September 4, 2012 at 7:19 PM

i.e., “Who you gonna believe, me or your own lying eyes?” Please note, The One said, “this plant will be here for another 100 years”. So, who was really lying? Obama that he was going to fight for that plant, or was he just saying words that those people in that audience wanted to hear in order that they would vote for him with no intention of helping them keep that plant?

Yeah, keep going with that lying meme there sport, your candidate had the most “promises” that came with expiration dates.

AZfederalist on September 4, 2012 at 7:39 PM


but all the experts have been telling us Romney is so unpopular and Obama is so cool! they can’t be wrong!

It doesn’t follow that Romney is a popular alternative to Obama just because Obama is a terrible president. The sad fact is that Obama is a terrible President and Romney is the most underperforming GOP candidate since anyone in the post-war era, and by post-war I mean WWII.

casuist on September 4, 2012 at 7:58 PM


There’s no bounce because everyone’s decided already how they will vote.

Where is that dead cat pic they use on this blog to depict the non-bounces of under-performing progressives like Romney?

casuist on September 4, 2012 at 8:00 PM

This new narrative that candidates don’t get convention bounces since 2000 is pure utter bull crap. John McCain got a HUGE bounce in 2008. The Real Clear Politics numbers prove this out……http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

On September 2nd, the day after the Republican convention started Obama lead in the “CUMULATIVE AVERAGE” by 6.4 points. Just 6 days later, McCain lead by an average of 2.9 points. That is a 9.3 point bounce with about 10 different pollsters being involved. You know, the biased pollsters that are never nice to Republicans gave the McCain convention a nearly 10 point bounce. The USA Today-Gallup poll had McCain WINNING by 10 points over Obama on September 7th. ABC and CBS had McCain leading by 2 points even. I guess all these pollsters were not biased then. How soon people forget how awsome those couple of weeks were.

But hey, lets not tell the truth here. Romney’s convention was great and nobody ever gets a convention bounce in modern times.

KMav on September 4, 2012 at 8:02 PM


John McCain got a HUGE bounce in 2008.

Yes, he did. McCain-Palin actually led in the polls for a few weeks. The good times lasted until the September 15th with the so-called credit crunch that turned out to be only the first wave of a cascade of economic failures in advance of a general collapse.

So what’s wrong with this Romney fellow, would you say?

casuist on September 4, 2012 at 8:07 PM

The numbers make no sense.

Period.

I don’t trust any polling data anymore. Deception using polling data is such an art form these days that one cannot trust any of it to be true.

bobcalco on September 4, 2012 at 8:10 PM

Exit question: Er, if people reacted to the convention this badly, how is it that Romney’s favorables are up (among likelies) and he has a small bounce? Surely the gap between likely voters and registered voters isn’t that insanely wide.

Im just spit-balling, but maybe a bunch of Romney supporters soured on the candidate some, but mildly, and not enough to push them over the edge just yet. The deluge of dubious “fact checks” could give a lot of people pause about Ryan – they might be wondering “is he another Al Gore, just making things up?”. If so, then they’re probably trying to keep an open mind until they can decide for themselves. The anti-AP in me says they’re waiting for Ryan’s debate with Biden to make up their mind.

RINO in Name Only on September 4, 2012 at 8:13 PM

Sorry Pastor but he did lie. He is a liar that has lost all credibility amongst the middle of the road Americans.

Then again, how come he didn’t call out Obama immediately the plant was closed? Where are the letters the lying congressman wrote to Obama reminding him of his promise to keep this plant opened? After all, that is what he is paid to do.

Oh i get it, those workers were union thugs looking for a government bailout that’s why.

HotAirLib on September 4, 2012 at 6:50 PM

Honey, if Ryan had to write Obama a letter every time Obama lied, Ryan would never get any work done.

By the way, those “independant fact checkers” are all Obama supporters, so it hardly seems appropriate to call them “independent”.

If you have an actual fact that Ryan stated that is a lie, please post it, so that we can verify it.

Thus far, the only actual lie the “fact checkers” have been able to prove is Ryan’s statement that his best marathon time was under 3 hours. It turns out that the race was in 1991 and his time was closer to 4 hours. Ryan issued a correction. I’m finding it difficult to get worked up about something like that. It doesn’t seem substantive. I think it’s a worse lie to say I will cut the deficit in half and not do it or I will post legislation on line for 5 days and not do it, etc.

Of course maybe you subscribe to the media’s new definition of “lie”-a fact they don’t like.

talkingpoints on September 4, 2012 at 8:39 PM

On September 2nd, the day after the Republican convention started Obama lead in the “CUMULATIVE AVERAGE” by 6.4 points. Just 6 days later, McCain lead by an average of 2.9 points. That is a 9.3 point bounce with about 10 different pollsters being involved. You know, the biased pollsters that are never nice to Republicans gave the McCain convention a nearly 10 point bounce. The USA Today-Gallup poll had McCain WINNING by 10 points over Obama on September 7th. ABC and CBS had McCain leading by 2 points even. I guess all these pollsters were not biased then. How soon people forget how awsome those couple of weeks were.

But hey, lets not tell the truth here. Romney’s convention was great and nobody ever gets a convention bounce in modern times.

KMav on September 4, 2012 at 8:02 PM

McCain got the Palin bounce from the convention by keeping her secret until the convention. Romney announced his VP pick before the convention, so there wasn’t much to give him a bounce.

talkingpoints on September 4, 2012 at 8:41 PM

McCain got the Palin bounce from the convention by keeping her secret until the convention. Romney announced his VP pick before the convention, so there wasn’t much to give him a bounce.

talkingpoints on September 4, 2012 at 8:41 PM

When Romney picked Paul Ryan, he was leading in Rassmussen by 1 point and tied in Gallup. After both the Ryan and convention impacts, he has picked up 1 point in Rassmussen and lost 1 point in Gallup. And in neither did he get more then 3 points above the original starting point, including right after the Ryan choice.

In other words, he got almost nothing from either situation. It definately all pales to the 2008 McCain comparison.

KMav on September 4, 2012 at 9:01 PM


In other words, he got almost nothing from either situation. It definately all pales to the 2008 McCain comparison.

Leave it to Romney’s consistent under-performance to make us nostalgic for the electoral magic of McCain-Palin. Hey, this Romney fellow even makes Dole ’96 loom like a campaign power-house by comparison.

casuist on September 4, 2012 at 9:05 PM

As others have pointed out, this poll has numerous oddities that make it next to useless for serious analysis. Simply put, without detailed internals that explain what the true party registration skew, we cannot know exactly how CNN came up with these numbers, or if their assumptions were at all reasonable.

This is a common problem with CNN/ORC polls, this is not the first poll they put out this year that had independents in the single digits. Simply put, they must frequently pressure pollee’s to side either D or R, which is only really serves to obscure the internals and make them more difficult to verify.

WolvenOne on September 4, 2012 at 9:11 PM


If you have an actual fact that Ryan stated that is a lie, please post it, so that we can verify it.

It wasn’t Ryan’s excellent speech that cost him all his credibility. It was accepting the position of Romney’s number 2. No speech no matter how excellent can redeem someone from so deep a betrayal of ones own principles. But Ryan’s Faustian bargain with Team Romney doesn’t explain the GOP’s dead-cat bounce following their convention.

casuist on September 4, 2012 at 9:12 PM

talkingpoints on September 4, 2012 at 8:39 PM

i believe lying about one’s running time,goes to the heart of a man’s character. then he lied about accepting stimulus funds.

one by one they add up. when you take into account his paltry legislative record, and his back door canoodling with clinton, you come away questioning what the guy is really all about.

renalin on September 4, 2012 at 9:20 PM

On November 7th The Communist News Network, PSMBC and all other State Run Media will refuse to call it for Romney and it will be the final nail in their coffin. Well, nobody is really watching anyway.

Tbone McGraw on September 4, 2012 at 9:24 PM

I have a friend (former co-worker) who voted for Obama in 2008 and now regrets it. She’s only 24 but she told me the commercials showing people who regretted voting for Obama made her realize she wasn’t the only one.

She didn’t watch the GOP convention, but she watched Romney’s speech on YouTube and decided that she’s going to vote for Romney because she says “at least he seems to know what the hell he’s doing”.

She’s also fed up with paying taxes for welfare queens, etc.

She was impressed by Romney’s speech. For her, he hit the right tone, expressing empathy for those who mistakenly voted for Obama and now are disillusioned. He didn’t attack Obama too much either, so she didn’t see him as “mean spirited” or harsh. She said she is pro abortion and pro gay marriage, but she realizes that it’s the economy that matters right now, so she decided to vote GOP in November.

dukecitygirl on September 4, 2012 at 9:24 PM


She was impressed by Romney’s speech.

Yes, and no one can see this bodiless ghost-like apparition but you, and even then you only catch fleeting glimpses of her out of the corner of your bloodshot eyes. Sometimes when you forget your meds she appears as a voice in your head to command you to push the elderly woman hobbling behind a walker in front of an on-coming bus. I don’t think that imaginary people can vote unless they’re Democrats.

casuist on September 4, 2012 at 9:40 PM

Yes, and no one can see this bodiless ghost-like apparition but you, and even then you only catch fleeting glimpses of her out of the corner of your bloodshot eyes. Sometimes when you forget your meds she appears as a voice in your head to command you to push the elderly woman hobbling behind a walker in front of an on-coming bus. I don’t think that imaginary people can vote unless they’re Democrats.

casuist on September 4, 2012 at 9:40 PM

Dude, you’re talking to me about medication? Read your unhinged post. LOL

dukecitygirl on September 4, 2012 at 9:48 PM


Dude, you’re talking to me about medication? Read your unhinged post. LOL

I know you are but what am I? The best you can do is a school-yard cliche? Best you return to your imaginary friends who believe that Romney’s speech was anything but a complete disaster.

casuist on September 4, 2012 at 10:17 PM

casuist on September 4, 2012 at 10:17 PM

Concern troll noted. I bet you’re getting minimum wage from Axelrod.

dukecitygirl on September 4, 2012 at 10:21 PM


Concern troll noted. I bet you’re getting minimum wage from Axelrod.

Romney himself is an Axelrod stooge. Or if he isn’t, then he should be.

casuist on September 4, 2012 at 10:50 PM

will obama run against hillary for the democratic nomination in 2016?

wholefoodsrepublican on September 4, 2012 at 10:51 PM

I know you are but what am I? The best you can do is a school-yard cliche? Best you return to your imaginary friends who believe that Romney’s speech was anything but a complete disaster.

casuist on September 4, 2012 at 10:17 PM

Seek help..you’re a phreaking weirdo.

HumpBot Salvation on September 4, 2012 at 11:31 PM

Actually 92 and 96 were the years of the third party and all we got out of it was Bill Clinton, winning with 43% of the vote.

Terrye on September 4, 2012 at 6:06 PM

Only a neocon would think Bush lost because of Ross Perot and not his “no new taxes” pledge as well as a bad economy. Anything to keep your monopoly. You’d think by now you could see that these two parties are destroying the Republic.

A Gary Johnson will get votes from me, someone who’ll NEVER vote for either OBAMA OR ROMNEY. They never had me, or were ever going to have me. The false assumption, of course, being that I was ever going to vote for Romney to begin with.

fatlibertarianinokc on September 5, 2012 at 12:12 AM

No, Ryan is not lying here..you just live in a bubble. What are you going to say if they actually use footage of Obama at that plant in an ad?

Terrye on September 4, 2012 at 7:02 PM

HotAirLib, if they played the video, would stick his fingers in his ears, close his eyes, and say “lalalalala” really loudly until the truth was over. Then he would skip the numerous, I think at least 3 now, thoroughly researched and documented destructions of the narrative HE wants ON THIS VERY SITE, and look for stuff to pick at elsewhere.

The truth to a lib is like garlic to a vampire.

PastorJon on September 5, 2012 at 12:22 PM

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