New Florida poll shows vindication of Eastwood Strategy

posted at 10:01 am on September 1, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Feel lucky, punk?  When Republicans chose Tampa as the site for the 2012 national convention, they didn’t do it for the weather, obviously.  They saw Florida as a key to their hopes of winning the presidential election and hoped to make an impact on voters with their week-long argument for Republican control of the White House.  According to a snap poll from Survey USA of 754 registered voters who watched the final night of the convention, they may have switched 10% of the vote with the effort:

1,211 adults were interviewed statewide 08/31/12, after Romney, Florida’s Marco Rubio and Clint Eastwood spoke to the convention 08/30/12. Of the adults, 1,100 were registered to vote in Florida. Of the registered voters, 754 heard the convention speeches. Of the convention speech watchers:

66% did not change their mind.
16% switched from “undecided” to Romney.
6% switched from Obama to Romney.
Adding those 2 together, that’s 22% who switched TO Romney.
10% switched from “undecided” to Obama.
2% switched from Romney to Obama.
Adding those 2 together, that’s 12% who switched TO Obama.
Comparing the 2 aggregate numbers: 22% switched TO Romney, 12% switched TO Obama.

There is, however, a big caveat in this figures, which is that the people who watched the convention on the final night were still more Republican than the general population.  The D/R/I of this sample was 24/48/27, and the D/R/I of the 2010 midterms was 36/36/29.  That’s still significantly less Republican than I would have thought for a convention audience, and this might well be the first datum of success for the Clint Eastwood strategy.  Another data point would be the saturation among registered voters in Florida for the final night; in this survey, nearly 69% of registered voters in Florida tuned in.  That’s a pretty remarkable reach, and if that’s the case around the country, I’d say that Team Romney and the RNC won big.

Here’s another data point, too: the split among Florida voters to Eastwood’s speech was 49% positive to only 24% negative by the next day — presumably even after the avalanche of criticism for it.  The overall split is positive in almost all demos except Democrats (30/45) and liberals (26/58).  Majorities of independents (51/26), seniors (54/20), men (54/24) approved of it, but the biggest positive response came from Hispanics, 62/21 — even better than Republicans (58/12).  Even women (44/25) and black voters (43/37) liked Eastwood’s extemporaneous riff on President Obama.

The ultimate question, though, is whose minds were changed — and that looks bad for Obama almost along the same lines.  The aggregate numbers are shown above, but here are some key breakdowns in the demos, which we’ll calculate by adding those switching from either undecided or Obama to Romney, and those switching from undecided or Romney to Obama, in that order:

  • Men: 32/16 (Romney/Obama switchers)
  • Women: 15/9
  • 18-34YOs: 29/15
  • Black: 38/19
  • Hispanic: 25/17
  • Independent: 37/23

One last caveat: those tuning in among those demos would tend to be a little self-selecting as having an open enough mind to be convinced to switch.  Still, it’s pretty clear that at least in Florida, Eastwood not only got people to tune in, he got them to enjoy the evening and perhaps open their mind to support Mitt Romney.  If I’m Mitt Romney, I’d say that this makes my day.

Update: I should probably also mention some of the reaction to the speeches of Romney and Rubio.  Let’s start with the positive/negative of Romney:

  • Overall: 64/23
  • Women: 62/26
  • 18-34YOs: 51/39
  • Black: 54/36
  • Hispanic: 65/19
  • Independent: 54/24

And for Rubio, the numbers are even better:

  • Overall: 67/19
  • Women: 66/20
  • 18-34YOs: 57/31
  • Black: 55/37
  • Hispanic: 76/15
  • Independent: 61/21

If Eastwood did indeed drive viewership, these numbers will be key in the weeks ahead for this swing state.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2 3 4

Kristamatic on September 1, 2012 at 7:48 PM

Very good!!! Thanks to Mr. K for the laughs.

TXUS on September 1, 2012 at 8:14 PM

Anyone who doens’t get the jest, and straight talk for Mr. Clint Eastwood, are absolute fools! And I don’t care what side of the isle you roost on. He is an entertainer, and he is a straight talking american, who put it as simply as he knew how for the masses to understand…if you have a boss/employee that isn’t doing their job in a satisfactory manner…ya gotta let ‘em go…or fire them! Some folks are just too stupid or over/under analyze…libtards in particular!

OldWeaselKeeper on September 1, 2012 at 8:48 PM

Too bad the RNC couldn’t get Red Skelton to do a “Crazy Guggenheim” bit to convince people not to drive our country off a cliff.

Buck Turgidson on September 1, 2012 at 6:57 PM

“Crazy Guggenheim” was on Jackie Gleason’s show. And he was played by Frankie Fontaine.

Art Carney -

Del Dolemonte on September 1, 2012 at 9:02 PM

“Crazy Guggenheim” was on Jackie Gleason’s show. And he was played by Frankie Fontaine.
Del Dolemonte on September 1, 2012 at 9:02 PM

He used to a Jim Nabors-type thing, where he’d coming out acting goofy, but then Gleason – as “Joe The Bartender” – would have him sing a song with that wonderful voice of his. Never missed Craze on Gleason when I was a kid. The show was called “Jackie Gleason and His American Scene Magazine”. With the June Taylor dancers. Now, that was entertainment!

whatcat on September 1, 2012 at 10:03 PM

…I’ve got a folding chair with JugEars name in magic marker on the backrest (I live in Michigan so I have to give the uninformed some ‘wonder why?’ assistance)…I’m trying to figure out how to put it securely on the roof of my car! I drive 49 miles one way to work on mostly stop and go freeway…I really would like to make that trip fun every day from now until November!

KOOLAID2 on September 1, 2012 at 1:46 PM

Try a miniature chair :)…after all it’s all symbolic …

jimver on September 1, 2012 at 10:48 PM

I agree about the new OOTD cartoon being an empty chair, but DO NOT FORGET THE TOTUS !!
That was a brilliant touch.. LOL.

pambi on September 1, 2012 at 11:32 PM

There is, however, a big caveat in this figures, which is that the people who watched the convention on the final night were still more Republican than the general population.

Gee, ya think?

Dr. ZhivBlago on September 1, 2012 at 11:50 PM

mark Steyn says it all http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/315658/play-clinty-me-mark-steyn

Bullhead on September 2, 2012 at 12:02 AM

As Allahpundit would say
It’s come to this, CBS fact checking Clint Eastwood.
Looks like Clint had a bigger impact than they thought.

Heh. Comedy Skit gets Fact Checked

BDU-33 on September 2, 2012 at 12:09 AM

mark Steyn says it all http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/315658/play-clinty-me-mark-steyn

Bullhead on September 2, 2012 at 12:02 AM

Thanks for that link, I couldn’t agree more.

ccrosby on September 2, 2012 at 12:38 AM

Political analysts will be studying Eastwood’s speech for years and they still won’t understand what everyday American’s picked up in 11 minutes!!

dddave on September 2, 2012 at 5:41 AM

My mother is 94. She’s a Democrat. She LOVED Clint Eastwood’s remarks.
The only thing he missed is telling Obama, “A man has to know his limitations . . . .”
That would’ve capped it.

tpitman on September 2, 2012 at 7:17 PM

WHEW!

After all those polls showing how the old geezer had tanked, Hotair finally found one that says he did an okay job.

HOORAY!

Dave Rywall on September 4, 2012 at 2:49 PM

Keep watching your black-and-white TVs, Hotairheads. Maybe the 21st century will go away if you just keep listening to yourselves.

bifidis on September 1, 2012 at 5:41 PM

You mad, bro?

John the Libertarian on September 1, 2012 at 6:40 PM

Just another liberal wetting their pants over an imminent loss.

itsspideyman on September 4, 2012 at 5:09 PM

Comment pages: 1 2 3 4