Snap poll: Romney’s favorable rating rises five points overnight, Christie’s speech most popular

posted at 5:19 pm on August 29, 2012 by Allahpundit

Alternate headline: “So far, so good.”

I assume most of this is due to Ann, whose speech dwelled entirely on Mitt, versus Christie, who didn’t mention him until 16 minutes in. But even so, this is interesting:

Romney had a 43-percent favorable and 44-percent unfavorable rating in nine battleground states heading into the convention, according to an average compiled by Real Clear Politics.

A survey conducted by Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research in nine battle ground states Tuesday evening found Romney’s favorable rating among likely voters had jumped to 48 percent. His unfavorable rating dipped to 39…

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s speech had the biggest impact of the convention so far, more than twice as popular as Ann Romney’s remarks on Tuesday, according to the poll.

Twelve percent of respondents rated Christie’s speech as their favorite, compared to five percent who favored Romney’s…

The good news is it’s a sample of likely voters. The bad news is that the sample’s small, just 303 people. Any news that Romney’s favorables might be improving after months of Obama attacks is worth blogging, but there’s really no way to tell from this whether he’ll get a meaningful bounce. Consider it a “good sign” and a further reason to watch Ryan tonight. My hunch is that if there’s any speech that’s likely to significantly help the ticket, it’s his, not Mitt’s tomorrow.

As for Christie’s speech, Politico claims people “close to Romney” are grumbling that it was a bust because it was more about him that it was about either Mitt or Obama. (Never mind that Romney’s team vetted the speech weeks ago.) If you’re going to get the big guy for your keynote, you want him in full tough-guy mode, throwing roundhouses, no? Actually, maybe not. Jay Cost makes the case:

One theme that connects the political victories of Barack Obama in 2008, George W. Bush in 2000, Bill Clinton in 1992, Ronald Reagan in 1980, Jimmy Carter in 1976, and all the way back to Thomas Jefferson in 1800 is a simple, powerful message: The other side has failed America, but we can do better.

If you look at the polling data, you can see pretty clearly that a Republican convention that focuses on the failures of Barack Obama would be tantamount to beating a dead horse…

The middle of the country is deeply disappointed in the job this president has done, and that has been the case basically for three years. What is left for the GOP ticket to do is to make the positive case for change. That is what we began to see last night.

It would be the height of political malpractice to fall into the false dichotomy the Democrats have been preaching – a “choice” versus a “referendum.” Every election is in fact both.

Fair point. After three and a half years, Obama’s negatives are essentially baked in the cake. All the GOP can do now is explain why they’d be better, which is why Ryan’s speech is the moment of truth. And in further defense of Christie, our media being as loathsome as it is, he would have been destroyed last night for gleefully pummeling Obama while Isaac is raging even though Obama’s out on the trail himself. Just one question, though: If you’re going for a purely positive message, why get Christie for the keynote? Rubio would have been much better in that role. You could have put Christie instead in the Thursday night slot to introduce Mitt and get the crowd fired up. I don’t quite get it.


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Steveangell on August 29, 2012 at 6:31 PM

If everyone looks like a RINO to you maybe the problem is you.

Maybe you are in the wrong party. The people who force others to do what they want are Democrats… and Ron Paul supporters. So you need to figure out why Republicans can’t be forced into the narrow little box you advocate. Maybe you need to give the Totalitarian parties another look. You seem to fit them better.

In fact, I think Ron Paul’s fake libertarianism might fit you well. They don’t like the way free people vote so they take over whole states, denying the people who actually went to the trouble to go to the caucuses and vote their voice. Yep, you sound like the perfect Totalitarian/Libertarian–Ron Paul voter to me.

petunia on August 29, 2012 at 6:45 PM

NO… Facist is a better discription than simply Totalitarian… Fascists us intimdation and force… just like the Ron Paul folks.

petunia on August 29, 2012 at 6:47 PM

You can tell McCain’s fingerprints are all over the tone of this convention.

Bush, McCain and Romney are just too gentlemanly to fight in the gutter…unless they’re against a Conservative opponent on their way to presidency.

Typicalwhitewoman on August 29, 2012 at 6:48 PM

Some of the pundits are swallowing CROW -

jake-the-goose on August 29, 2012 at 5:24 PM

Maybe they ought to be…but I just heard A.B. Stoddard on the panel on Special Report and she ripped the speech big time..To hear her tell it Christie just cost Romney the election or something equally momentous.

I liked the speech. Sometimes these people act as if viewers are just stupid and can not figure out what someone like Christie is saying.

Terrye on August 29, 2012 at 6:48 PM

I liked both Ann and Christie’s speeches, but Christie’s was my favorite for the night.

artchick on August 29, 2012 at 6:48 PM

Bush, McCain and Romney are just too gentlemanly to fight in the gutter…unless they’re against a Conservative opponent on their way to presidency.

Typicalwhitewoman on August 29, 2012 at 6:48 PM

it is a convention…not a gutter fight..there is a time and place for everything.

Terrye on August 29, 2012 at 6:49 PM

The Bret Bair All Stars aren’t giving Christie real high marks. Krauthammer was pretty pumped on it last night, but, since he’s had a night to meditate, he isn’t quite so positive. Most significant point was that Christie had talked about seniors et al having to make sacrifices in the new austerity programs, while R&R
have been saying just the opposite and that Christie was actually using a Democrat(Obamacare) talking point. A.B. Stoddard also wasn’t too positive. So,… I think I’ll form my own opinion regardless of pundits.

a capella on August 29, 2012 at 6:50 PM

Steveangell on August 29, 2012 at 6:31 PM

You keep yakking about Rinos…but you are not even a loyal Republican yourself. You do not like Republicans, you do not support Republicans, you do not intend to vote this November…you want to control a party that you fail to even claim…so maybe if there is a Rino here it is you.

Terrye on August 29, 2012 at 6:52 PM

So,… I think I’ll form my own opinion regardless of pundits.

a capella on August 29, 2012 at 6:50 PM

Same here…maybe someone should send the panel a copy of this poll.

Terrye on August 29, 2012 at 6:53 PM

Typicalwhitewoman on August 29, 2012 at 6:48 PM

Oh please. You don’t get it and I doubt that you ever will. Any GOP candidate has to introduce himself by saying, in one way or another, “Yes, I’m proud to be a Republican, but no, I’m one of those nuts.” Following the freak show that was the GOP primaries Mitt had a cred deficit simply by standing on a stage next to Cain, Paul, Newt, Santo and the rest. The first order of business has to be to assure voters that he isn’t one of them. That he is a rational, reasonable and caring person who is deserving of a hearing. One does not accomplish that by frothing at the mouth and throwing rotten tomatoes.

MJBrutus on August 29, 2012 at 6:54 PM

I don’t see Christie introducing Romney precisely because his own story is too compelling to have been passed up.

paul1149 on August 29, 2012 at 6:55 PM

Steveangell: wrong party, wrong planet, wrong.

Rusty Allen on August 29, 2012 at 6:55 PM

Gee, did Christie mention his Islamic judicial appointments?….his views on the GZ mosque?…..his thoughts on gun control?…..what’s his thoughts on amnesty or his “green agenda” and cap/trade?….what about Obama/RomneyCare? and being MIA on healthcare litigation?….or how about his political endorsements like Mike Castle?

tencole on August 29, 2012 at 5:57 PM

This is why I don’t want Chris Christie in the national spot light. His most memorable quote from last was this…..

“real leaders don’t follow polls. Real leaders change polls”

Do we want the polls changed to Chris Christie’s direction on those issues? He would be an absolute disaster for conservatism if he ever became a national leader.

With that being stated, its Romney’s convention and he can have any speaker he wants and any strategy he wants. But I think if you are going to go positive, there were better people to present the positive case then Christie. I thought Christie’s delivery and style was surprisingly weak.

As for poll bounces…both Rassmussen and Gallups dailey tracking polls have Obama up 1 over Romney today. The day Paul Ryan was chosen Gallup was even and Rassmussen had Romney up 1. Both had a peak bounce of Romney +2[Gallup] and Romney +3[Rassmussen]. And now its -1 and -2.

For Romney’s sake, he better hope there is more of a convention bounce then a VP bounce.

KMav on August 29, 2012 at 7:00 PM

I was unimpressed with Christie’s speech. But none of the speeches so far have moved me. Something is missing from conservative rhetoric these days, a certain incision and sense of grace, and the skill of marrying them up like Reagan did. Perhaps it’s the constant clumping together of freedom and economy or money, as if freedom in and of itself is just not appealing or meaningful enough to people. Perhaps it’s the mind-numbing use of the term “American exceptionalism.” Or the repeated nods to “my immigrant parents.” It’s beginning to sound like a canned loop.

Ann Romney was heartfelt and believable. It may have been the best speech. But it wasn’t really political or a treatise on the failures of liberalism and time-tested remedies of Republicanism.
Reagan had a pitch-perfect grasp of the universal human truth and appeal of freedom, and a devastating way to illustrate how liberalism undermined it.

Also, we need someone to go up there and directly address and demolish the media narratives like the absurd “war on women.” Maybe Dennis Miller? No one in the party seems able to do it.

rrpjr on August 29, 2012 at 7:01 PM

Terrye

I didn’t say they should have a gutter fight at the convention.

I said they, the Republican establishment in control, only take off the gloves against Conservatives.

Translation: they have no problem pissing on us Palinstas.

These modern-day Republican leaders cavalierly play patty-cake patty-cake with the enemy of this country.

Disheartening.

I loved Ann, eventhough it speaks to women, which is a Lefty thing.

The White men of this country are ridiculed on every advertisement, on tv sitcoms and movies…I feel sorry for what they endure every day, taking care of the family, and then have to be laughed at? Despicable.

I liked Christie even though I’m not a fan.
Loved all the speakers before the primetime too.

Typicalwhitewoman on August 29, 2012 at 7:05 PM

us Palinstas.

Typicalwhitewoman on August 29, 2012 at 7:05 PM

That explains it.

MJBrutus on August 29, 2012 at 7:06 PM

Fascists us intimdation and force… just like the Ron Paul folks.

petunia on August 29, 2012 at 6:47 PM

Ron Paul people, to a man, carry guns.

If Ron Paul people ever wanted to intimidate you, you’d know it.

JohnGalt23 on August 29, 2012 at 7:17 PM

MJBrutus

Eff off. I’ve had a long, difficult day.

Typicalwhitewoman on August 29, 2012 at 7:19 PM

Ron Paul people, to a man, carry guns.

If Ron Paul people ever wanted to intimidate you, you’d know it.

JohnGalt23 on August 29, 2012 at 7:17 PM

Liberty!

tom daschle concerned on August 29, 2012 at 7:24 PM

A.B. Stoddard also wasn’t too positive. So,… I think I’ll form my own opinion regardless of pundits.

a capella on August 29, 2012 at 6:50 PM

I used to assume Stoddard was a “moderate” conservative, but the last few months have convinced me that she’s not only left leaning, but she has a serious axe to grind against Romney.

BettyRuth on August 29, 2012 at 7:24 PM

Typicalwhitewoman on August 29, 2012 at 7:19 PM

So sad. Was your day ruined because of this?

I’m sorry Fox cancelled all my scheduled interviews tonight because I sure wanted to take the opportunity on the air to highlight Senator John McCain’s positive contributions to America, to honor him, and to reflect on what a biased media unfairly put him through four years ago tonight. Granted, our honored and esteemed war hero has gone through much more than the liberal media can ever do to him in their efforts to harm this patriot. I look forward to hearing his words to his fellow Americans tonight more than any of the other convention speeches. God bless John McCain. Thank you for everything. And happy birthday, my friend.

- Sarah Palin

MJBrutus on August 29, 2012 at 7:27 PM

“Bounce”

Nice. Fat jokes.

rayra on August 29, 2012 at 7:33 PM

303 respondents via an internal poll (more or less)? LOL. Junk poll. Wait for a larger sample taken well after Mitt RomneyCare Romney’s big speech.

I though this was funny after everyone was falling all over themselves about Ann’s speech last night:

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s speech had the biggest impact of the convention so far, more than twice as popular as Ann Romney’s remarks on Tuesday, according to the poll.

newtopia on August 29, 2012 at 7:33 PM

it is a convention…not a gutter fight..there is a time and place for everything.

Terrye on August 29, 2012 at 6:49 PM

ahistorical fool. The keynote IS traditionally the time for attacks on the opponent candidate. But the wussified RNC has declared that sort of thing verbotten. Exercisign their Loser muscles.

rayra on August 29, 2012 at 7:35 PM

A.B. Stoddard also wasn’t too positive. So,… I think I’ll form my own opinion regardless of pundits.

a capella on August 29, 2012 at 6:50 PM

Her comments on christie’s speech was at least bizarre, she didn ‘t quite say that it will cost romney the election, but the tone was so said something along the lines that it was a missed opportuity or something, but she didn’t quite articulate what the missed opportunity might have been..personally I think he did a great job…

jimver on August 29, 2012 at 7:36 PM

…wussified RNC has declared that sort of thing verbotten

They’re afraid of being called racist…which is what the MSM was planning to do regardless.

newtopia on August 29, 2012 at 7:36 PM

Her comments on christie’s speech was at least bizarre, she didn ‘t quite say that it will cost romney the election, but the tone was so said something along the lines that it was a missed opportuity or something, but she didn’t quite articulate what the missed opportunity might have been..personally I think he did a great job…

jimver on August 29, 2012 at 7:36 PM

yes, I agree.

Terrye on August 29, 2012 at 7:40 PM

303 respondents via an internal poll (more or less)? LOL. Junk poll. Wait for a larger sample taken well after Mitt RomneyCare Romney’s big speech.

I though this was funny after everyone was falling all over themselves about Ann’s speech last night:

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s speech had the biggest impact of the convention so far, more than twice as popular as Ann Romney’s remarks on Tuesday, according to the poll.

newtopia on August 29, 2012 at 7:33 PM

Hahaha, so says the one who 10 minutes into christie’s or ann’s speech yesterday (don’t remember which one exactly since I mostly ignore your comments) affirmed that it didn’t move the needle or something along those lines as if voters were polled instantly while ann or christie were speaking or something:) …you are a humongous idiot who contradicts your own statements…

jimver on August 29, 2012 at 7:41 PM

ahistorical fool. The keynote IS traditionally the time for attacks on the opponent candidate. But the wussified RNC has declared that sort of thing verbotten. Exercisign their Loser muscles.

rayra on August 29, 2012 at 7:35 PM

No actually fool, the keynote speech is to set the tone for the convention…the tone being that the Republican party is not afraid to do what it takes to fix the problems the country faces…the point of the key note is not to rant and rave and scream and yell..I know if he had stood up there and screams Obama sucks for half an hour you might have been mullified and not felt the need to call them wusses..Maybe you think they should all act like the Republican version of Chris Matthews instead of articulating a vision that might actually appeal to the American people.

Terrye on August 29, 2012 at 7:44 PM

Rand Paul making unusually great sense…

jimver on August 29, 2012 at 7:45 PM

I used to assume Stoddard was a “moderate” conservative, but the last few months have convinced me that she’s not only left leaning, but she has a serious axe to grind against Romney.

BettyRuth on August 29, 2012 at 7:24 PM

I had the same thought. There is something going on with her.

Terrye on August 29, 2012 at 7:45 PM

Exactly. There was an overarching theme to last night, and it was to highlight the success of Republican governance, by featuring a series of governors each with a story to tell. Christie followed the theme in his speech “to a T”, and delivered it well.

Why does Obama’s policies only help states with Republican governors? You would think he’d try to help the blue states like California, Illinois, and New York.

PatMac on August 29, 2012 at 7:58 PM

newtopia on August 29, 2012

…you don’t get drug tested for work…do you?

KOOLAID2 on August 29, 2012 at 8:32 PM

I just don’t understand the attraction of Christie. Never have. He comes off as a loud self promoting blowhard. He has all the appeal of an union boss.

OliverB on August 29, 2012 at 8:35 PM

I just don’t understand the attraction of Christie. Never have. He comes off as a loud self promoting blowhard. He has all the appeal of an union boss.

OliverB on August 29, 2012 at 8:35 PM

I get what you are saying but I think people like his style because we have put up with loudmouths on the left for too long and he’s not afraid to give it back.

CW on August 29, 2012 at 8:51 PM

Isn’t it time you retired the old “RINO” word. The entire REPUBLICAN party voted overwhelmingly to make Mitt our nominee. This occurred on a state by state basis with millions of votes cast. Perhaps you heard of it. It was called the primaries. That means that Mitt is the most Republican of Republicans. He is the leader of the Republicans.

It is you who futher out of step, much less Republican, and much more INO than anyone on this site. Capiche?

MJBrutus on August 29, 2012 at 6:41 PM

You are not allowed your own facts.

Romney failed to even win seven states. He seldom broke 40% until the others dropped out. He won solely because he had far more money to buy far more ads that were far more deceptive than the others. It was a fair win but an underwhelming win. Then Anyone but Mitt vote was far higher and Mitt never once broke 40% in the polls till the others dropped out when all the others got up to 60% or more.

Steveangell on August 29, 2012 at 9:00 PM

Sometimes Limbaugh acts like a spoiled child… Not everything under the sun is “red meat rhetoric”… A campaign cannot be run like a talk radio show… The Romney campaign is hitting Obama mercilessly on the most important issues during each campaign stop and on TV/Radio political ads… Also the Republican convention had a lot of very tough attacks against Obama by many speakers…

mnjg on August 29, 2012 at 9:36 PM

Of course we can pull this country out of its morass. Look at New Jersey and what one man has done. And he’s only a lawyer. Christie has accomplished a miracle in a heavily Democratic state. It is good to demonstrate, “we CAN do it because we HAVE done it before.”

Nibbling at Obama’s tail unceasingly for 3 days is silly. The nation either knows how bad he is or is impervious to learning. We need to educate much of the nation about our team’s experience, know-how, and the fact that such turn-arounds have been happened before based on the same models our team is going to use.

I’ve heard enough bile. I want the main course of “We can do it because we have done it before and know how to do it again.”

{^_^}

herself on August 30, 2012 at 4:33 AM

Bush, McCain and Romney are just too gentlemanly to fight in the gutter…unless they’re against a Conservative opponent on their way to presidency.

Typicalwhitewoman on August 29, 2012 at 6:48 PM

Mitt and McCain may superficially resemble one another, but they are not alike. McCain built his whole political career, his entire “brand,” on finding the mavericky middle. That’s how he got all his access to the LSM and that’s why he was so popular with squishes and RINOs. He was never a “gentleman.” He was a shrewd Scot who understood completely which side of the bread was buttered.

Mitt is a Mormon, and Mormons have a very pleasant exterior but underneath spines of steel. Mitt is no “gentleman,” in the traditional sense, although he’s more decent than a hundred Zeros. Also, Mitt didn’t run a daycare to make his millions, you know. Mitt will do what it takes to become president.

Right now, 96% of the people in this country have made up their minds. These are split into two camps: those who want our country to be well, and the others who are dazzled by all the goodies the dictator is offering. Right in the middle are the stupid sheep, the squishes and independents, and, believe me, a “gutter fight” isn’t what will sway them.

Burke on August 30, 2012 at 2:18 PM

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