mnjg on August 29, 2012 at 1:38 PM

I’m just asking a simple question. What’s your track record, or how accurate is your poll?

You came on yesterday and berated AP for his interpretation of the polls, and you berated just about very pollster out there while touting your abilities. And when I asked for a link, you tell me to post my email so you can send me your Excel spreadsheet.

You can answer questions w/o having to send the sheet to me, can’t you? How do you collect your data? Do you use the built-in statistics programming in Excel or are you crunching numbers in some other program, like Statistix? In other words, what makes your method so much better than the others?

Simple questions.

I told you yesterday to post your email address and I will email you my elections prediction model. It is FREE… Anyone who wants it can do the same…

In fact if you do not want to post your email on this forum you can e-mail it to me at mnjg123@yahoo.com and I will email you back my elections predictions model. Anyone else who is interested can also email me.

mnjg on August 29, 2012 at 1:38 PM

I am looking at Romney winning with 310 plus or minus 10 electoral votes. :) :) :)

What does yours look like?

My e-mail is guimbelleaux@yahoo.com

People are well conditioned now to tell pollsters that they like Obama (who the hell wants to be called a racist?). That will not translate in to votes this time around. White guilt has been replaced by buyer’s remorse.

MJBrutus on August 29, 2012 at 3:41 PM

They’re calling us racists regardless. They will continue to call us racists no matter what we do, or don’t do.

I agree this poll is garbage, just like the one that showed a double digit lead for obama amongst Iowa indies (strangely, the only indies in the nation not breaking for Romney).

But the pollsters don’t care that it’s not accurate. They aren’t trying to report news, they’re trying to fool people into thinking obama is again inevitable, so ya may just as well vote for him again. And sadly, it has a much bigger chance of working than it should.

MJBrutus on August 29, 2012 at 3:41 PM

People said that in 2008 and it did not happen that way. I would not count on this.

Monkeytoe on August 29, 2012 at 3:50 PM

He had no record then, remember??… He has one now, and it’s one of failure,…

Nope. In 2008 there was a world of difference. First off, white guilt played heavily in Obama’s favor. Now that our consciences are all purged and we can say, “been there, done that,” people will not be so keen on another affirmative action pick. Next, Obama now has a record and people will tell themselves that they won’t be fooled again by this poser. Finally, in 2008, Obama got to run against a SonOfABush candidate who supported the most unpopular policies of a disastrously unpopular POTUS.

There are no comparisons to 2008. Absolutely none.

MJBrutus on August 29, 2012 at 3:54 PM

I agree with you in terms of the election generally, I am saying that people thought the Bradley effect would happen in 2008 and it didn’t – thus I wouldn’t necessarily rely on that belief when reading the polls. I’m as mystified as anyone as to how Obama’s poll numbers are as good as they are – but I don’t believe the Bradley effect explains it.

Monkeytoe on August 29, 2012 at 3:50 PM

Nope. In 2008 there was a world of difference. First off, white guilt played heavily in Obama’s favor. Now that our consciences are all purged and we can say, “been there, done that,” people will not be so keen on another affirmative action pick. Next, Obama now has a record and people will tell themselves that they won’t be fooled again by this poser. Finally, in 2008, Obama got to run against a SonOfABush candidate who supported the most unpopular policies of a disastrously unpopular POTUS.

There are no comparisons to 2008. Absolutely none.

Now, DC has Romney up by 15%.

Does anyone have the cross tabs for the last couple DC polls to see if they show a trend?